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MARKET UPDATE
- Edbeleg
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12 years 5 months ago #4127
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 12-10-2011
Het parlement van Slowakije heeft gisterenavond laat tegen uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds gestemd. Slowakije was het laatste van de EU-landen dat akkoord moest gaan met het op 21 juni overeengekomen plan. Dat meldt persbureau AFP. De regering in Slowakije is gevallen na de stemming over het noodfonds. Het parlement heeft het vertrouwen in de regering opgezegd, zo meldt persbureau AP. Met de val van het parlement komt er ruimte voor een herstemming, vermoedelijk volgende week.
Wall Street is gisteren verdeeld gesloten. Beleggers namen een afwachtende houding aan in aanloop naar de Slowaakse stemming over de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds en de start van het kwartaalcijferseizoen in de VS.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,1% lager op 11.416,30 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 0,1% tot 1.195,54 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,7% won tot 2.583,03 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren verdeeld gesloten, waarbij beleggers in afwachting zijn van de uitkomst van de stemming over de uitbreiding van de EFSF en terughoudend zijn in de aanloop naar de aftrap van het cijferseizoen in de VS met de kwartaalresultaten van aluminiumgigant Alcoa.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 0,2% lager op 2.315,97. De DAX-30 steeg 0,3% tot 5.865,01, de CAC-40 sloot 0,3% lager op 3.153,52 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,1% lager op 5.395,70.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services heeft gisteren de kredietratings van tien Spaanse banken verlaagd vanwege de zwakke economische vooruitzichten van het land, lage activiteit in de vastgoedmarkten en de kwetsbaarheid voor kapitaalstromen.
Onder meer de toonaangevende banken Banco Santander sa (STD) en Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA.MC) werden verlaagd door de kredietwaardigheidbeoordelaar.
Fitch Ratings heeft het kredietwaardigheidoordeel voor Dexia Bank België verlaagd naar A van A-plus, maakt het ratingbureau dinsdag bekend. De rating voor Dexia sa blijft A-plus.
De verlaging volgt op de aangekondigde herstructurering, waarbij de Belgische staat Dexia Bank België overneemt en garanties afgeeft voor maximaal EUR90 miljard voor het beursgenoteerde Dexia.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag licht lager gesloten, in aanloop naar de stemming in het Slowaakse parlement over uitbreiding van het Europese steunfonds EFSF.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met een klein verlies gesloten na een handelsdag waarop Europese prominenten zich lieten horen over de Europese schuldencrisis en waarop Griekenland te horen kreeg de volgende tranche van EUR8 miljard in november tegemoet te kunnen zien. Wall Street was in de laatste sessie weer toonaangevend voor de AEX.
De AEX-index sloot dinsdag 0,2% lager op 292,88 punten. De Midkap verloor 0,5% op een slotstand van 469,58 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,03% hoger op 412,69 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren voor de vijfde dag op rij gestegen. De handel kenmerkte zich door een kalm verloop. De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot dinsdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,40, of 0,5%, hoger op $85,81. Het koersverloop van de olieprijs wordt met argusogen gevolgd door beleggers, al zou het alleen maar zijn vanwege de extra euro’s die
bij de benzinetank moeten worden neergeteld als de koers van Brent Oil gaat oplopen. Echter het ziet er naar uit dat de olieprijs wederom gaat stijgen. Dat er al maandenlang sprake is van een uptrend, behoeft geen verdere toelichting, de grafiek van de Olie is daar duidelijk in. Je ziet aan de in de chart dat er een proces van lagere toppen en lagere bodems gaande is, als zijnde een stevige correctiebeweging. En dat is toch een lichte verzwakking van de trend. Goed, de stieren bodemen uit, zij willen de uptrend nieuw leven inblazen. Zolang de koers boven 99,00 noteert, is een opleving naar 116,00 de eerste opgave voor de bullen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36430, om 23:00uur 1.36370, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 60.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.56270, om 23:00uur 1.55790, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 480.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23400, om 23:00uur 1.23890, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 490.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.690, om 23:00uur 76.665, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 25.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.87545, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 255.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02960, om 23:00uur 1.02990, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 30.
EUR/USD Forecast: Resistance at 1.37; 1.3520 Is Key Support
The EUR/USD has been in a very persistent rally from the low near 1.3150 to 1.37. In the Tuesday European session, we saw 1.37 hold as resistance. As we get the US session started, the market seems to have taken a bearish tone at least in the short-term. However, as you can see in the 4H chart, the bearish attempts have been so far relatively weak. We can also see that there will be an important support at 1.3520.
The market has been reacting at this pivot for both support and resistance. A break below will suggest a test of 1.3450, below which, we have a test of the 1.3370-1.3380 area. Below 1.3370, we are likely developing a range with resistance near 1.37, and support near 1.3150, but with some bearish bias. In this case, the 1.3150 level will become the short-term target.
If the market is instead breaks above 1.37 in the US session, we can see a rally toward the 1.3790-1.38 area, a previous resistance pivot, and the 200-period simple moving average seen in the 4H EUR/USD chart.
The Safe Haven Currency You Forgot
The circus in Europe has certainly been absorbing. But while you weren't looking, these strategists say the Japanese yen has gotten cheap. Don't look now, but the Japanese yen is a bargain - or so say the strategists at Deutsche Bank. "With USD/JPY moving sideways over the last few weeks, the market seems to have forgotten that it is this year’s best performing currency across both G10 and EM," they wrote in a note to clients. Sure, there have been foreign equity outflows, and foreign bond buying by the Japanese, which haven't helped the yen lately. But the strategists point out that a shrinking but still sizable current-account surplus, along with interest rates that are less and less out of line with the rest of the G4, should support the currency. Also, Deutsche Bank's research suggests there's a buildup of short positions in Japanese yen.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. Dow (11416.30) was down 0.15% while the Nasdaq (2583.03) was up 0.66%. As mentioned yesterday, 11550-600 on the Dow and 2600-50 on the Nasdaq will be the significant Resistance region to be watched and the indices has to see a strong rise past these Resistance to ease the downside pressure.
The Asian markets are trading mixed following the news from Europe that the Slovakian parliament has rejected the expansion of the Euro zone rescue fund. However, it is expected to approve this in the re-voting later this week. Australia (4253.60 down 0.82%), Nikkei (8715.10 down 0.67%), Hong Kong (18061.86 down 0.44%) are trading lower while Shanghai (2377.76, up 1.25%), Indonesia (3564.44, up 0.93%) and Korea (1798.40, up 0.19%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16536.47, down 20.76 points) and Nifty (4974.35, down 5.25 points) had closed slightly lower yesterday. The Sensex and Nifty are currently facing Resistance near 16800 and 5045 respectively and they need to rise past these Resistance to extend its upmove further.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (84.95) has come off from its high of 86.64 following the news that the Slovakian government lost its confidence vote to pass the expansion plan of the Euro Zone rescue fund. Strong Resistance is seen in 86.50-87.00 region and then near 89. A fresh fall to 80 or even lower is possible while the above mentione Resistances hold.
Gold (1668) failed to rise past its Resistance at 1685 and has come off from its high of 1686.70 yesterday. The immediate outlook continues to be mixed and we will have to wait for a breakout on either side of the current 1600-85 sideways range.
Silver (32.06) is not gaining strength to extend its upmove strongly above 32. Resistance is seen at 33 and while below this Resistance we see chances of a fall to 30-29 once again.
Copper (3.29) is facing good Resistance near 3.40 over the last couple of days and has come off from its high of 3.38 yesterday. A revisit of 3.00 is possible in the coming days while below 3.40.
CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3610) has been vacillating between 1.3575-3680 since yesterday. Important Resistance seen at 1.3675 and 1.3750. Markets will possibly watch today's EU Industrial Production carefully whose chart looks bleak. But, there can be room for a rally in the Euro if there is even a small uptick in the EU data today. UK Unemployment data is also to be released today. This has been steady at just below 8% for some months now and it is imperative that it falls now, because a rise past 8% will be viewed very badly by the market. The GBP is weakening against the EUR with the EURGBP (0.8746) likely to rise towards 0.8850. The Cable (GBPUSD 1.5555) could be in danger of dipping towards 1.5450.
Dollar-Yen (76.70) continues to move sideways and the Euro-Yen (104.35) could see a bounce towards 104.70-80 today. Dollar-Swiss (0.9105) has bounced from Support at 0.9015-00. It seems to be ranged between 0.90-92 in the broader picture with the market currently in the middle of this range. The Aussie (0.9898) has bounced well over the last few days and may have room to move higher if it is able to sustain above 0.9860.
Among the Asians, the USDSGD (1.2896) has bounced well since yesterday, after having fallen over the last several days. Further upside towards 1.2950 is possible. The Korean Won (1175.20) also trades a little weak. Dollar-Rupee (49.34) had moved up yesterday. At best we could see a dip towards 49.10. But, given that the Asians are not particularly strong, the Rupee too would be prone to weakness.
INTEREST RATES
The German bund yields remained almost stable with marginal fluctuations in the yields, 2Y stable at 0.65%, 5Y dropped to 1.26%(-1bps), 10Y and 30Y increased to 2.09% (+1bps) and 2.80%(+1bps) respectively.
In the US, bond prices have increased after six days of consecutive fall compressing the yields between 1bps to 3bps, 2Y came off to 0.30%(-1bps), 5Y to 1.11%(-3bps), 10Y to 2.19% (- 2bps) against 2bps increase in 30Y to 3.09%.
In India, 10Y GOI bond yields fell marginally by 2bps to 8.72% as compared to its previous intraday increase by 17bps. We want to mention that the increase in yields so far is not speculation driven and the level above 8.65-70 is technically correct backed by economic fundamentals. Thus a sharp fall may not be expected. Today CSO will come up with the IIP numbers. After the slip in growth of core sector as released by DIPP yesterday, we expect the IIP growth to remain between 4.00% and 5.00%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 13uur en 20uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.19% lager. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. De Eur/Usd is naar een lichte daling toch weer hersteld. 1.36360
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 12 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- ASML, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, internationale handel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, industriele productie, augustus, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, notulen rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 13 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, september (definitief), 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 8 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 17.00 uur
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Woensdag 12 oktober: EC-president d4rz7e Manuel Barroso presenteert een reeks maatregelen, waaronder maatregelen om de Europese banken te herkapitaliseren.
- Donderdag 13 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
Wall Street is gisteren verdeeld gesloten. Beleggers namen een afwachtende houding aan in aanloop naar de Slowaakse stemming over de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds en de start van het kwartaalcijferseizoen in de VS.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,1% lager op 11.416,30 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 0,1% tot 1.195,54 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,7% won tot 2.583,03 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren verdeeld gesloten, waarbij beleggers in afwachting zijn van de uitkomst van de stemming over de uitbreiding van de EFSF en terughoudend zijn in de aanloop naar de aftrap van het cijferseizoen in de VS met de kwartaalresultaten van aluminiumgigant Alcoa.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 0,2% lager op 2.315,97. De DAX-30 steeg 0,3% tot 5.865,01, de CAC-40 sloot 0,3% lager op 3.153,52 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,1% lager op 5.395,70.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services heeft gisteren de kredietratings van tien Spaanse banken verlaagd vanwege de zwakke economische vooruitzichten van het land, lage activiteit in de vastgoedmarkten en de kwetsbaarheid voor kapitaalstromen.
Onder meer de toonaangevende banken Banco Santander sa (STD) en Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA.MC) werden verlaagd door de kredietwaardigheidbeoordelaar.
Fitch Ratings heeft het kredietwaardigheidoordeel voor Dexia Bank België verlaagd naar A van A-plus, maakt het ratingbureau dinsdag bekend. De rating voor Dexia sa blijft A-plus.
De verlaging volgt op de aangekondigde herstructurering, waarbij de Belgische staat Dexia Bank België overneemt en garanties afgeeft voor maximaal EUR90 miljard voor het beursgenoteerde Dexia.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag licht lager gesloten, in aanloop naar de stemming in het Slowaakse parlement over uitbreiding van het Europese steunfonds EFSF.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met een klein verlies gesloten na een handelsdag waarop Europese prominenten zich lieten horen over de Europese schuldencrisis en waarop Griekenland te horen kreeg de volgende tranche van EUR8 miljard in november tegemoet te kunnen zien. Wall Street was in de laatste sessie weer toonaangevend voor de AEX.
De AEX-index sloot dinsdag 0,2% lager op 292,88 punten. De Midkap verloor 0,5% op een slotstand van 469,58 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,03% hoger op 412,69 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren voor de vijfde dag op rij gestegen. De handel kenmerkte zich door een kalm verloop. De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot dinsdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,40, of 0,5%, hoger op $85,81. Het koersverloop van de olieprijs wordt met argusogen gevolgd door beleggers, al zou het alleen maar zijn vanwege de extra euro’s die
bij de benzinetank moeten worden neergeteld als de koers van Brent Oil gaat oplopen. Echter het ziet er naar uit dat de olieprijs wederom gaat stijgen. Dat er al maandenlang sprake is van een uptrend, behoeft geen verdere toelichting, de grafiek van de Olie is daar duidelijk in. Je ziet aan de in de chart dat er een proces van lagere toppen en lagere bodems gaande is, als zijnde een stevige correctiebeweging. En dat is toch een lichte verzwakking van de trend. Goed, de stieren bodemen uit, zij willen de uptrend nieuw leven inblazen. Zolang de koers boven 99,00 noteert, is een opleving naar 116,00 de eerste opgave voor de bullen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36430, om 23:00uur 1.36370, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 60.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.56270, om 23:00uur 1.55790, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 480.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23400, om 23:00uur 1.23890, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 490.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.690, om 23:00uur 76.665, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 25.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.87545, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 255.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02960, om 23:00uur 1.02990, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 30.
EUR/USD Forecast: Resistance at 1.37; 1.3520 Is Key Support
The EUR/USD has been in a very persistent rally from the low near 1.3150 to 1.37. In the Tuesday European session, we saw 1.37 hold as resistance. As we get the US session started, the market seems to have taken a bearish tone at least in the short-term. However, as you can see in the 4H chart, the bearish attempts have been so far relatively weak. We can also see that there will be an important support at 1.3520.
The market has been reacting at this pivot for both support and resistance. A break below will suggest a test of 1.3450, below which, we have a test of the 1.3370-1.3380 area. Below 1.3370, we are likely developing a range with resistance near 1.37, and support near 1.3150, but with some bearish bias. In this case, the 1.3150 level will become the short-term target.
If the market is instead breaks above 1.37 in the US session, we can see a rally toward the 1.3790-1.38 area, a previous resistance pivot, and the 200-period simple moving average seen in the 4H EUR/USD chart.
The Safe Haven Currency You Forgot
The circus in Europe has certainly been absorbing. But while you weren't looking, these strategists say the Japanese yen has gotten cheap. Don't look now, but the Japanese yen is a bargain - or so say the strategists at Deutsche Bank. "With USD/JPY moving sideways over the last few weeks, the market seems to have forgotten that it is this year’s best performing currency across both G10 and EM," they wrote in a note to clients. Sure, there have been foreign equity outflows, and foreign bond buying by the Japanese, which haven't helped the yen lately. But the strategists point out that a shrinking but still sizable current-account surplus, along with interest rates that are less and less out of line with the rest of the G4, should support the currency. Also, Deutsche Bank's research suggests there's a buildup of short positions in Japanese yen.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. Dow (11416.30) was down 0.15% while the Nasdaq (2583.03) was up 0.66%. As mentioned yesterday, 11550-600 on the Dow and 2600-50 on the Nasdaq will be the significant Resistance region to be watched and the indices has to see a strong rise past these Resistance to ease the downside pressure.
The Asian markets are trading mixed following the news from Europe that the Slovakian parliament has rejected the expansion of the Euro zone rescue fund. However, it is expected to approve this in the re-voting later this week. Australia (4253.60 down 0.82%), Nikkei (8715.10 down 0.67%), Hong Kong (18061.86 down 0.44%) are trading lower while Shanghai (2377.76, up 1.25%), Indonesia (3564.44, up 0.93%) and Korea (1798.40, up 0.19%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16536.47, down 20.76 points) and Nifty (4974.35, down 5.25 points) had closed slightly lower yesterday. The Sensex and Nifty are currently facing Resistance near 16800 and 5045 respectively and they need to rise past these Resistance to extend its upmove further.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (84.95) has come off from its high of 86.64 following the news that the Slovakian government lost its confidence vote to pass the expansion plan of the Euro Zone rescue fund. Strong Resistance is seen in 86.50-87.00 region and then near 89. A fresh fall to 80 or even lower is possible while the above mentione Resistances hold.
Gold (1668) failed to rise past its Resistance at 1685 and has come off from its high of 1686.70 yesterday. The immediate outlook continues to be mixed and we will have to wait for a breakout on either side of the current 1600-85 sideways range.
Silver (32.06) is not gaining strength to extend its upmove strongly above 32. Resistance is seen at 33 and while below this Resistance we see chances of a fall to 30-29 once again.
Copper (3.29) is facing good Resistance near 3.40 over the last couple of days and has come off from its high of 3.38 yesterday. A revisit of 3.00 is possible in the coming days while below 3.40.
CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3610) has been vacillating between 1.3575-3680 since yesterday. Important Resistance seen at 1.3675 and 1.3750. Markets will possibly watch today's EU Industrial Production carefully whose chart looks bleak. But, there can be room for a rally in the Euro if there is even a small uptick in the EU data today. UK Unemployment data is also to be released today. This has been steady at just below 8% for some months now and it is imperative that it falls now, because a rise past 8% will be viewed very badly by the market. The GBP is weakening against the EUR with the EURGBP (0.8746) likely to rise towards 0.8850. The Cable (GBPUSD 1.5555) could be in danger of dipping towards 1.5450.
Dollar-Yen (76.70) continues to move sideways and the Euro-Yen (104.35) could see a bounce towards 104.70-80 today. Dollar-Swiss (0.9105) has bounced from Support at 0.9015-00. It seems to be ranged between 0.90-92 in the broader picture with the market currently in the middle of this range. The Aussie (0.9898) has bounced well over the last few days and may have room to move higher if it is able to sustain above 0.9860.
Among the Asians, the USDSGD (1.2896) has bounced well since yesterday, after having fallen over the last several days. Further upside towards 1.2950 is possible. The Korean Won (1175.20) also trades a little weak. Dollar-Rupee (49.34) had moved up yesterday. At best we could see a dip towards 49.10. But, given that the Asians are not particularly strong, the Rupee too would be prone to weakness.
INTEREST RATES
The German bund yields remained almost stable with marginal fluctuations in the yields, 2Y stable at 0.65%, 5Y dropped to 1.26%(-1bps), 10Y and 30Y increased to 2.09% (+1bps) and 2.80%(+1bps) respectively.
In the US, bond prices have increased after six days of consecutive fall compressing the yields between 1bps to 3bps, 2Y came off to 0.30%(-1bps), 5Y to 1.11%(-3bps), 10Y to 2.19% (- 2bps) against 2bps increase in 30Y to 3.09%.
In India, 10Y GOI bond yields fell marginally by 2bps to 8.72% as compared to its previous intraday increase by 17bps. We want to mention that the increase in yields so far is not speculation driven and the level above 8.65-70 is technically correct backed by economic fundamentals. Thus a sharp fall may not be expected. Today CSO will come up with the IIP numbers. After the slip in growth of core sector as released by DIPP yesterday, we expect the IIP growth to remain between 4.00% and 5.00%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 13uur en 20uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.19% lager. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. De Eur/Usd is naar een lichte daling toch weer hersteld. 1.36360
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 12 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- ASML, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, internationale handel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, industriele productie, augustus, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, notulen rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 13 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, september (definitief), 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 8 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 17.00 uur
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Woensdag 12 oktober: EC-president d4rz7e Manuel Barroso presenteert een reeks maatregelen, waaronder maatregelen om de Europese banken te herkapitaliseren.
- Donderdag 13 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4130
by Jelle
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
Replied by Jelle on topic Re: Market Update 12-10-2011
Industriele productie in de euro zone onverwacht met 1,2% gestegen, waar gerekend was op een daling van -0,8%.Directe gevolg hiervan is een positieve stemming rond de euro, die van $1,3660 tot een paar pips boven de $1,38 is gestegen.
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
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12 years 5 months ago #4131
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Re: Market Update 12-10-2011
AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, noteren woensdagochtend lager, in reactie op de stijgingen op de aandelenbeurzen.
De Slowaakse afwijzing van de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds kan beleggers niet van de wijs brengen, en ook de tegenvallende kwartaalcijfers van Alcoa deren de markt vooralsnog niet.
Het Slowaaks parlement stemde dinsdag zoals verwacht tegen uitbreiding van de European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Een van de oppositiepartijen heeft echter al aangegeven het plan wel te steunen als het opnieuw in stemming wordt gebracht, nu de regering het veld ruimt.
"Het goede nieuws is dat een nieuwe stemming zeer waarschijnlijk volgende week (of eerder) voor een "ja" zal zorgen, aangezien de oppositie al heeft laten weten in te stemmen met de EFSF-plannen van 21 juli", schrijft Rabo in een marktcommentaar.
De bunds zakten woensdag verder weg na een tegenvallende veiling van Duitse staatspapieren. De interesse van beleggers in de lening die in juli 2042 aflost, was opmerkelijk laag, een signaal dat de lage rente op de bunds investeerders afschrikt.
Verder wordt uitgekeken naar de notulen van het laatste rentebesluit van de Federal Reserve vanavond, wanneer vermoedelijk meer informatie zal worden gegeven over 'Operation Twist'.
Woensdag omstreeks 11.40 uur noteert de Duitse bundfuture van december 73 basispunten lager op 133,82. De Duitse bundfuture is een standaardtermijncontract op een mandje van de tien meest recente tienjarige staatsleningen in Duitsland.
De Slowaakse afwijzing van de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds kan beleggers niet van de wijs brengen, en ook de tegenvallende kwartaalcijfers van Alcoa deren de markt vooralsnog niet.
Het Slowaaks parlement stemde dinsdag zoals verwacht tegen uitbreiding van de European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Een van de oppositiepartijen heeft echter al aangegeven het plan wel te steunen als het opnieuw in stemming wordt gebracht, nu de regering het veld ruimt.
"Het goede nieuws is dat een nieuwe stemming zeer waarschijnlijk volgende week (of eerder) voor een "ja" zal zorgen, aangezien de oppositie al heeft laten weten in te stemmen met de EFSF-plannen van 21 juli", schrijft Rabo in een marktcommentaar.
De bunds zakten woensdag verder weg na een tegenvallende veiling van Duitse staatspapieren. De interesse van beleggers in de lening die in juli 2042 aflost, was opmerkelijk laag, een signaal dat de lage rente op de bunds investeerders afschrikt.
Verder wordt uitgekeken naar de notulen van het laatste rentebesluit van de Federal Reserve vanavond, wanneer vermoedelijk meer informatie zal worden gegeven over 'Operation Twist'.
Woensdag omstreeks 11.40 uur noteert de Duitse bundfuture van december 73 basispunten lager op 133,82. De Duitse bundfuture is een standaardtermijncontract op een mandje van de tien meest recente tienjarige staatsleningen in Duitsland.
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12 years 5 months ago #4133
by Paul
Replied by Paul on topic Re:MARKET UPDATE
Mooie overzichten! Altijd handig om even snel door te nemen.
Ben je zelf een fundamenteel trader of is dit gewoon ter ondersteuning in het algemeen?
Ben je zelf een fundamenteel trader of is dit gewoon ter ondersteuning in het algemeen?
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12 years 5 months ago #4152
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Re:MARKET UPDATE
Tnx Paul
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12 years 5 months ago #4158
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 13-10-2011
Beleidsbepalers van de Federal Reserve waren niet gerust over hun eigen vooruitzichten van een aantrekkende economie in de komende kwartalen, blijkt gisteren uit de notulen van de Fed-bijeenkomst die op 20 en 21 september plaatsvond. De Fed-leden zagen "aanzienlijke onzekerheid rond de outlook van een geleidelijk aantrekkende economische groei", waarbij de economie slechts een zwak herstel na de recessie heeft laten zien in vergelijking met eerdere herstellen. Redenen voor de zwakte blijven "onduidelijk", hoewel sommige leden bedrijfs- en consumentenschulden en de problematische huizenmarkt als oorzaken aanwezen.
De beleidsbepalers van de centrale Amerikaanse bank verwachtten nog steeds een sterkere groei in de tweede helft van dit jaar, omdat de bevoorradingsproblemen in de auto-industrie als gevolg van de aardbeving en tsunami in Japan dan zijn afgenomen.
Tijdens de bijeenkomst in september kwam de Fed overeen de komende tijd voor $400 miljard aan langere Amerikaanse staatsleningen op te kopen.
De beslissing werd door zeven van de tien leden ondersteund. Twee leden wilden een sterker ingrijpen, maar stemden toch in met het plan omdat het toekomstige stappen niet uitsluit.
Drie van de vier regeringspartijen in het Slowaakse parlement hebben overeenstemming bereikt met oppositiepartij Smer over goedkeuring van de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds EFSF. Dat meldt televisiezender TA3 gisterenmiddag.
De regering viel dinsdagavond nadat er geen parlementaire meerderheid voor de goedkeuring was. In de regering zitten vier coalitiepartijen, waarvan de liberale SaS dinsdagavond tijdens een parlementaire stemming tegen goedkeuring van het aangepaste noodplan stemde. Daardoor ontbeerde minister-president Iveta Radicova een meerderheid, waarna de regering viel. Er was een motie van wantrouwen aan de stemming gekoppeld.
De overige coalitiepartijen (de christendemocratische partijen SDKU en KDH en de centrumrechtse Most-Híd) hebben nu een akkoord bereikt met de sociaaldemocratische oppositiepartij Smer. Daarmee is er alsnog een meerderheid in het parlement voor de uitbreiding van de EFSF. Vrijdag 14 oktober zou het parlement instemmen met het plan.
Wall Street is gisteren hoger gesloten, met name vanwege de verwachting dat Europa haar schuldenproblemen gaat aanpakken.
De Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,9% hoger op 11.518,85 punten. De S&P 500 steeg 1,0% tot 1.207,25 punten, terwijl de Nasdaq 0,8% won tot 2.604,73 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ruim hoger gesloten, geleid door mijnbouwers, autoproducenten en andere aandelen die sterk gerelateerd zijn aan economische verwachtingen.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 2,4% hoger op 2.372,15. De DAX-30 steeg 2,2% tot 5.994,47, de CAC-40 sloot 2,4% hoger op 3.229,76 en de FTSE-100 won 0,9% op 5.441,80.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag lager gesloten, in reactie op de stijgingen op de aandelenbeurzen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met winst gesloten op grond van oplopende positieve verwachtingen dat de oplossing voor de liquiditeitscrisis in de eurozone steeds dichterbij komt. Wall Street trok de kar van de Amsterdamse beurs andermaal.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 2,5% hoger op 300,14 punten, vrijwel het hoogste niveau van de dag, waarop de index bandbreedte ontwikkelde van ruim 9 punten, fors meer dan dinsdag. De Midkap kreeg er op het slot 2,9% bij op 483,12 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,3% hoger op 418,23 punten.
De olieprijs is gisterenavond licht lager gesloten, waarmee een reeks van vijf winstgevende handelsdagen op rij werd onderbroken. De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,24 lager op $85,57.
Russian Ruble Advances from Gains in Crude Oil
A sudden surge in crude oil values yesterday brought about resurgence in a recently-weakened Russian ruble (RUS). The value of the RUS was brought down by strong dips in global stocks last week as traders sought the safety of more stable currencies. The US dollar (USD) was making strides against the RUS, but this week has seen the pair turning back in favor of the ruble. Crude oil is the leading export earner for Russia, which makes its rise in price help lift the value of the ruble. The RUS, in turn, helps return investment interest to the Russian economy at a time when it needs to prove it can weather the financial storm of another global downturn.
With the price of oil holding steady above $86 a barrel, the RUS also climbed significantly against its primary basket of currencies. The RUS moved up over 0.2% against the USD and EUR towards 29.03 per dollar and 41.76 per euro. Talk of another round of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve has also caused many investors to bet on a sudden spike in oil values should the greenback become weakened. That predicted spike is also feeding into the ruble’s recent ascent.
Insurance plan to boost rescue fund’s reach
European policymakers are moving towards a plan that would enable the eurozone’s €440bn rescue fund to insure investors against some losses on government bonds, arguing it presents the fewest legal and political hurdles to quickly increasing the fund’s firepower.
Officials have focused on the insurance plan after European Union legal staff determined that other proposals – including turning the fund into a bank so it could access unlimited funding from the European Central Bank – were not allowed under EU regulations.
Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, and senior German officials have also objected to plans that would lean on the ECB for financing, arguing it is not the central bank’s role to provide funds to an agency that many envision as a nascent eurozone treasury.
“The [ECB] governing council does not consider it to be appropriate for the ECB to leverage the [fund],” Mr Trichet said last week. “We believe that the governments have all necessary capacity to leverage the [fund] themselves.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister, who heads the group of euro finance ministers, said after their most recent meeting that plans involving the ECB had largely been ruled out. Under the insurance plan, the eurozone fund, formally known as the European financial stability facility, would guarantee 20-40 per cent of losses on bonds for struggling eurozone countries, particularly Spain and Italy, instead of buying them outright, as the ECB currently does. Depending on how high the guarantees are, such a scheme could leverage the EFSF’s resources to between €1,000bn and €2,900bn, the latter proposed by German insurer Allianz. “Issuing partial guarantees is signalling euro-area countries consider Spain and Italy to be fundamentally solvent and are willing to put their money where their mouth is,” said Sony Kapoor, head of economic consultancy Re-Define and one of the first to propose such a scheme.
Plans on how to use the fund’s limited resources more broadly have been debated for weeks, but officials are hoping to decide on a single scheme at a summit at the end of next week.
When it was unveiled, the EFSF was viewed as a temporary firefighter in small, peripheral eurozone countries such as Greece. But if Slovakia signs off later this week, as expected, the fund will soon be used to shore up faltering eurozone banks and prevent runs on sovereign bonds of some of Europe’s largest economies.
Analysts have argued that the EFSF needs anywhere from €2,000bn-€4,000bn for the new roles. Because more cash cannot be poured into the fund without threatening triple-A debt ratings of countries such as France, officials have agreed to “leverage” the fund’s current assets instead.
Some fear that even with the new insurance plan, the EFSF’s resources will still be too small, particularly given moves to recapitalise banks that could cost as much as €200bn and the vast size of the Italian bond market.
A version of the proposal by Allianz, the German insurer, calculates that the €780bn of government EFSF guarantees – the total committed by national capitals in a complex formula so that the fund can loan out €440bn – could be leveraged up to about €2,900bn. The Allianz plan suggests investors in Greece, Ireland and Portugal be insured against the first 40 per cent of losses while those in Italy and Spain would be protected against 25 per cent drops.
Mr Kapoor’s plan is more limited, proposing only tapping the €440bn the EFSF actually can spend and guaranteeing the first 20 per cent of losses for one year. Given that the average bond maturity for Italy is about seven years, that could increase the leverage even more if yields of all bonds converged. “The clever thing about using guarantees is that you are giving your word but you don’t have to hand over any money,” says Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities. Difficulties remain, including which countries are covered in the guarantee scheme. Thus far, the focus has been on five so-called “peripheral” countries – the three currently in bail-outs, plus Spain and Italy. But Belgium’s 10-year bond yields have risen to 4.26 per cent in recent weeks, not so far from Spain’s 5.10 per cent.
Another potential danger is in guaranteeing too many countries, particularly since the €780bn behind the EFSF includes big guarantees from Italy and Spain. “It is almost like you are guaranteeing yourself,” says Mr Jenkins. Indeed, the financial firepower currently in the EFSF is already lower than the headline €440bn. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have all “stepped out” of the EFSF, lowering its funding by €30bn. In addition, the EFSF is committed to lend Ireland and Portugal €44bn as part of their bail-outs and will probably be on the hook for about €100bn once Greece’s next bail-out is finalised, meaning the amount it has to leverage is only about €250bn.
Fed Minutes Show Some Favored Bolder Action
Federal Reserve officials left a series of options on the table which they could use if the U.S. economic recovery falters when they last met three weeks ago.
Minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, released with the customary lag on Wednesday, showed that two of 10 voting officials advocated taking bolder action to lift a limping U.S. economy. But the Fed records didn't say who those officials were, nor what sort of move they favored. Instead, the minutes revealed a long discussion of what steps could be taken to give the economy further support, ...
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36300, om 23:00uur 1.37870, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1570.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.55860, om 23:00uur 1.57500, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1760.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23940, om 23:00uur 1.23390, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.710, om 23:00uur 77.260, gemiddeld dagverschil van +500.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87450, om 23:00uur 0.87530, gemiddeld dagverschil van +80.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02720, om 23:00uur 1.01780, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1000.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The news that Slovakia has reached an agreement to pass the EFSF expansion plan by this Friday has given boost to the equity markets all over. The US markets had closed higher yesterday. The Dow (11518.85) was up 0.9% and the Nasdaq (2604.73) was up 0.84%. The movement in the indices in the coming days will be very crucial. The 11550-600 Resistance region which we have been mentioning for some time is holding as of now. Also important to note is that Dow has a significant Trendline Resistance on the weekly chart in 11630-40 region which was tested yesterday and the Dow fell sharply from the day's high of 11624.
The Asian markets are trading higher except for Shanghai (2418.61, down 0.06%) which is trading almost flat as of now. Australia (4296.30, up 0.69%). Hong Kong (18609.55, up 1.51%), Nikkei (8839.13, up 1.15%) and Taiwan (7401.16, up 0.25%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16958.39, up 421.92 points) and Nifty (5099.40, up 125.05 points) had closed strong yesterday. Now, we have good chances of seeing 17200-300 on the Sensex and 5200 on the Nifty going forward.
COMMODITIES
The Resistance in 86.50-87.00 region mentioned yesterday had held very well and Nymex Crude (84.86) has come off sharply from its high of 86.59. The candles on the daily chart is not showing strength over the last couple of days. Also there is important/strong Resistance at 88 on the Weekly chart. Putting all these together, raises the question as whether Crude is gearing up for a fresh fall to 70? We will have to wait and see.
Gold (1681.40) is slowly inching up, but is not gaining momentum for a strong rise above 1680-85 Resistance region. 1720-25 will be a significant Resistance region to be watched and only a strong rise past this Resistance region would open door for a fresh rally.
Silver (32.61) has risen above 32, but is continuing to find Resistance at 33. A strong break above 33 can take it up towards 35-36. Support is seen at 31.
Copper (3.34) saw a sharp rise yesterday, but failed to see a strong rise past its Resistance at 3.40 and had come off sharply from its high of 3.41. Important Resistance is seen in 3.40-60 region which could hallt the current upmove and can trigger a fresh downmove going forward.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3780) rose to as much as 1.3833 yesterday. It has very good Support at 1.37 now and is looking bullish on its Crosses as well. As such the outlook is now bullish for the Euro. The Slovakian vote also having gone through means action on the EFSF can now be taken.
Dollar-Yen (77.05) rose sharply to 77.45 yesterday but has come off a bit from there. Important Resistance is seen at 77.30. In case that breaks, we could be looking at a rally towards 78.20.
The Pound (1.5736) rose impressively yesterday despite a dangerous rise in Unemploymennt above 8%. Watch carefully the Resistance at 1.5760. Whether that holds or breaks will set the trend for the next few days.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8974) came down to 0.8917 yesterday but is bouncing back. With good Support in the 0.8925-00 region, there could be buying interest in this pair. The Aussie (1.0178) staged a strong rise yesterday with even the EURAUD coming off a bit. If it is able to sustain above 1.0140-00 through today, there can be further upside in the Aussie in the coming days.
Asian currencies are also looking stronger. The USD-SGD (1.2760) has good Resistance at 1.2900 and could dip to 1.27 again. The Korean Won trades stronger near 1159.60. Dollar-Rupee closed lower at 48.96 yesterday and could dip further towards 48.75 over today-tomorrow.
INTEREST RATES
Money Flood! This may be more harmful and have far more long-lasting impact in an economy than any other natural disasters. The money flood is coming from the economies that cumulate to almost 35% of global GDP. Market especially equities and commodities are rejoicing on Euro recapitalization plan and QE3 still preferred by some of US policy makers. However the chances are very less for QE3 but increase in further money supply in US may not be ruled out overall.
In Euro area, yields went up across all tenors between 6bps to 13bps where far end is increasing more, 2Y and 30Y yields closed at 0.71% (+6bps) and 2.93% (+13bps).
Like Euro area, US bond yields have increased across the maturities between 4bps to 8bps apart from 2Y yields with has came off by 1bps to 0.29%.
In India, the borrowing cost may not come down before fall in inflation as indicated by RBI. Yesterday, 10Y GOI yield has covered its fall in previous session by gaining 2bps (8.74%).
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 8:00uur cijfers uit Duitsland, 14:30uur en 17uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.95% hoger. De AEX futures laten een vlakke opening zien. De Eur/Usd op 1.38050.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 13 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, september (definitief), 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 8 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 17.00 uur
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 13 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
De beleidsbepalers van de centrale Amerikaanse bank verwachtten nog steeds een sterkere groei in de tweede helft van dit jaar, omdat de bevoorradingsproblemen in de auto-industrie als gevolg van de aardbeving en tsunami in Japan dan zijn afgenomen.
Tijdens de bijeenkomst in september kwam de Fed overeen de komende tijd voor $400 miljard aan langere Amerikaanse staatsleningen op te kopen.
De beslissing werd door zeven van de tien leden ondersteund. Twee leden wilden een sterker ingrijpen, maar stemden toch in met het plan omdat het toekomstige stappen niet uitsluit.
Drie van de vier regeringspartijen in het Slowaakse parlement hebben overeenstemming bereikt met oppositiepartij Smer over goedkeuring van de uitbreiding van het Europese noodfonds EFSF. Dat meldt televisiezender TA3 gisterenmiddag.
De regering viel dinsdagavond nadat er geen parlementaire meerderheid voor de goedkeuring was. In de regering zitten vier coalitiepartijen, waarvan de liberale SaS dinsdagavond tijdens een parlementaire stemming tegen goedkeuring van het aangepaste noodplan stemde. Daardoor ontbeerde minister-president Iveta Radicova een meerderheid, waarna de regering viel. Er was een motie van wantrouwen aan de stemming gekoppeld.
De overige coalitiepartijen (de christendemocratische partijen SDKU en KDH en de centrumrechtse Most-Híd) hebben nu een akkoord bereikt met de sociaaldemocratische oppositiepartij Smer. Daarmee is er alsnog een meerderheid in het parlement voor de uitbreiding van de EFSF. Vrijdag 14 oktober zou het parlement instemmen met het plan.
Wall Street is gisteren hoger gesloten, met name vanwege de verwachting dat Europa haar schuldenproblemen gaat aanpakken.
De Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,9% hoger op 11.518,85 punten. De S&P 500 steeg 1,0% tot 1.207,25 punten, terwijl de Nasdaq 0,8% won tot 2.604,73 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ruim hoger gesloten, geleid door mijnbouwers, autoproducenten en andere aandelen die sterk gerelateerd zijn aan economische verwachtingen.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 2,4% hoger op 2.372,15. De DAX-30 steeg 2,2% tot 5.994,47, de CAC-40 sloot 2,4% hoger op 3.229,76 en de FTSE-100 won 0,9% op 5.441,80.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag lager gesloten, in reactie op de stijgingen op de aandelenbeurzen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met winst gesloten op grond van oplopende positieve verwachtingen dat de oplossing voor de liquiditeitscrisis in de eurozone steeds dichterbij komt. Wall Street trok de kar van de Amsterdamse beurs andermaal.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 2,5% hoger op 300,14 punten, vrijwel het hoogste niveau van de dag, waarop de index bandbreedte ontwikkelde van ruim 9 punten, fors meer dan dinsdag. De Midkap kreeg er op het slot 2,9% bij op 483,12 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,3% hoger op 418,23 punten.
De olieprijs is gisterenavond licht lager gesloten, waarmee een reeks van vijf winstgevende handelsdagen op rij werd onderbroken. De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,24 lager op $85,57.
Russian Ruble Advances from Gains in Crude Oil
A sudden surge in crude oil values yesterday brought about resurgence in a recently-weakened Russian ruble (RUS). The value of the RUS was brought down by strong dips in global stocks last week as traders sought the safety of more stable currencies. The US dollar (USD) was making strides against the RUS, but this week has seen the pair turning back in favor of the ruble. Crude oil is the leading export earner for Russia, which makes its rise in price help lift the value of the ruble. The RUS, in turn, helps return investment interest to the Russian economy at a time when it needs to prove it can weather the financial storm of another global downturn.
With the price of oil holding steady above $86 a barrel, the RUS also climbed significantly against its primary basket of currencies. The RUS moved up over 0.2% against the USD and EUR towards 29.03 per dollar and 41.76 per euro. Talk of another round of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve has also caused many investors to bet on a sudden spike in oil values should the greenback become weakened. That predicted spike is also feeding into the ruble’s recent ascent.
Insurance plan to boost rescue fund’s reach
European policymakers are moving towards a plan that would enable the eurozone’s €440bn rescue fund to insure investors against some losses on government bonds, arguing it presents the fewest legal and political hurdles to quickly increasing the fund’s firepower.
Officials have focused on the insurance plan after European Union legal staff determined that other proposals – including turning the fund into a bank so it could access unlimited funding from the European Central Bank – were not allowed under EU regulations.
Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, and senior German officials have also objected to plans that would lean on the ECB for financing, arguing it is not the central bank’s role to provide funds to an agency that many envision as a nascent eurozone treasury.
“The [ECB] governing council does not consider it to be appropriate for the ECB to leverage the [fund],” Mr Trichet said last week. “We believe that the governments have all necessary capacity to leverage the [fund] themselves.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister, who heads the group of euro finance ministers, said after their most recent meeting that plans involving the ECB had largely been ruled out. Under the insurance plan, the eurozone fund, formally known as the European financial stability facility, would guarantee 20-40 per cent of losses on bonds for struggling eurozone countries, particularly Spain and Italy, instead of buying them outright, as the ECB currently does. Depending on how high the guarantees are, such a scheme could leverage the EFSF’s resources to between €1,000bn and €2,900bn, the latter proposed by German insurer Allianz. “Issuing partial guarantees is signalling euro-area countries consider Spain and Italy to be fundamentally solvent and are willing to put their money where their mouth is,” said Sony Kapoor, head of economic consultancy Re-Define and one of the first to propose such a scheme.
Plans on how to use the fund’s limited resources more broadly have been debated for weeks, but officials are hoping to decide on a single scheme at a summit at the end of next week.
When it was unveiled, the EFSF was viewed as a temporary firefighter in small, peripheral eurozone countries such as Greece. But if Slovakia signs off later this week, as expected, the fund will soon be used to shore up faltering eurozone banks and prevent runs on sovereign bonds of some of Europe’s largest economies.
Analysts have argued that the EFSF needs anywhere from €2,000bn-€4,000bn for the new roles. Because more cash cannot be poured into the fund without threatening triple-A debt ratings of countries such as France, officials have agreed to “leverage” the fund’s current assets instead.
Some fear that even with the new insurance plan, the EFSF’s resources will still be too small, particularly given moves to recapitalise banks that could cost as much as €200bn and the vast size of the Italian bond market.
A version of the proposal by Allianz, the German insurer, calculates that the €780bn of government EFSF guarantees – the total committed by national capitals in a complex formula so that the fund can loan out €440bn – could be leveraged up to about €2,900bn. The Allianz plan suggests investors in Greece, Ireland and Portugal be insured against the first 40 per cent of losses while those in Italy and Spain would be protected against 25 per cent drops.
Mr Kapoor’s plan is more limited, proposing only tapping the €440bn the EFSF actually can spend and guaranteeing the first 20 per cent of losses for one year. Given that the average bond maturity for Italy is about seven years, that could increase the leverage even more if yields of all bonds converged. “The clever thing about using guarantees is that you are giving your word but you don’t have to hand over any money,” says Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities. Difficulties remain, including which countries are covered in the guarantee scheme. Thus far, the focus has been on five so-called “peripheral” countries – the three currently in bail-outs, plus Spain and Italy. But Belgium’s 10-year bond yields have risen to 4.26 per cent in recent weeks, not so far from Spain’s 5.10 per cent.
Another potential danger is in guaranteeing too many countries, particularly since the €780bn behind the EFSF includes big guarantees from Italy and Spain. “It is almost like you are guaranteeing yourself,” says Mr Jenkins. Indeed, the financial firepower currently in the EFSF is already lower than the headline €440bn. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have all “stepped out” of the EFSF, lowering its funding by €30bn. In addition, the EFSF is committed to lend Ireland and Portugal €44bn as part of their bail-outs and will probably be on the hook for about €100bn once Greece’s next bail-out is finalised, meaning the amount it has to leverage is only about €250bn.
Fed Minutes Show Some Favored Bolder Action
Federal Reserve officials left a series of options on the table which they could use if the U.S. economic recovery falters when they last met three weeks ago.
Minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, released with the customary lag on Wednesday, showed that two of 10 voting officials advocated taking bolder action to lift a limping U.S. economy. But the Fed records didn't say who those officials were, nor what sort of move they favored. Instead, the minutes revealed a long discussion of what steps could be taken to give the economy further support, ...
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36300, om 23:00uur 1.37870, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1570.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.55860, om 23:00uur 1.57500, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1760.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23940, om 23:00uur 1.23390, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.710, om 23:00uur 77.260, gemiddeld dagverschil van +500.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87450, om 23:00uur 0.87530, gemiddeld dagverschil van +80.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02720, om 23:00uur 1.01780, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1000.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The news that Slovakia has reached an agreement to pass the EFSF expansion plan by this Friday has given boost to the equity markets all over. The US markets had closed higher yesterday. The Dow (11518.85) was up 0.9% and the Nasdaq (2604.73) was up 0.84%. The movement in the indices in the coming days will be very crucial. The 11550-600 Resistance region which we have been mentioning for some time is holding as of now. Also important to note is that Dow has a significant Trendline Resistance on the weekly chart in 11630-40 region which was tested yesterday and the Dow fell sharply from the day's high of 11624.
The Asian markets are trading higher except for Shanghai (2418.61, down 0.06%) which is trading almost flat as of now. Australia (4296.30, up 0.69%). Hong Kong (18609.55, up 1.51%), Nikkei (8839.13, up 1.15%) and Taiwan (7401.16, up 0.25%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16958.39, up 421.92 points) and Nifty (5099.40, up 125.05 points) had closed strong yesterday. Now, we have good chances of seeing 17200-300 on the Sensex and 5200 on the Nifty going forward.
COMMODITIES
The Resistance in 86.50-87.00 region mentioned yesterday had held very well and Nymex Crude (84.86) has come off sharply from its high of 86.59. The candles on the daily chart is not showing strength over the last couple of days. Also there is important/strong Resistance at 88 on the Weekly chart. Putting all these together, raises the question as whether Crude is gearing up for a fresh fall to 70? We will have to wait and see.
Gold (1681.40) is slowly inching up, but is not gaining momentum for a strong rise above 1680-85 Resistance region. 1720-25 will be a significant Resistance region to be watched and only a strong rise past this Resistance region would open door for a fresh rally.
Silver (32.61) has risen above 32, but is continuing to find Resistance at 33. A strong break above 33 can take it up towards 35-36. Support is seen at 31.
Copper (3.34) saw a sharp rise yesterday, but failed to see a strong rise past its Resistance at 3.40 and had come off sharply from its high of 3.41. Important Resistance is seen in 3.40-60 region which could hallt the current upmove and can trigger a fresh downmove going forward.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3780) rose to as much as 1.3833 yesterday. It has very good Support at 1.37 now and is looking bullish on its Crosses as well. As such the outlook is now bullish for the Euro. The Slovakian vote also having gone through means action on the EFSF can now be taken.
Dollar-Yen (77.05) rose sharply to 77.45 yesterday but has come off a bit from there. Important Resistance is seen at 77.30. In case that breaks, we could be looking at a rally towards 78.20.
The Pound (1.5736) rose impressively yesterday despite a dangerous rise in Unemploymennt above 8%. Watch carefully the Resistance at 1.5760. Whether that holds or breaks will set the trend for the next few days.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8974) came down to 0.8917 yesterday but is bouncing back. With good Support in the 0.8925-00 region, there could be buying interest in this pair. The Aussie (1.0178) staged a strong rise yesterday with even the EURAUD coming off a bit. If it is able to sustain above 1.0140-00 through today, there can be further upside in the Aussie in the coming days.
Asian currencies are also looking stronger. The USD-SGD (1.2760) has good Resistance at 1.2900 and could dip to 1.27 again. The Korean Won trades stronger near 1159.60. Dollar-Rupee closed lower at 48.96 yesterday and could dip further towards 48.75 over today-tomorrow.
INTEREST RATES
Money Flood! This may be more harmful and have far more long-lasting impact in an economy than any other natural disasters. The money flood is coming from the economies that cumulate to almost 35% of global GDP. Market especially equities and commodities are rejoicing on Euro recapitalization plan and QE3 still preferred by some of US policy makers. However the chances are very less for QE3 but increase in further money supply in US may not be ruled out overall.
In Euro area, yields went up across all tenors between 6bps to 13bps where far end is increasing more, 2Y and 30Y yields closed at 0.71% (+6bps) and 2.93% (+13bps).
Like Euro area, US bond yields have increased across the maturities between 4bps to 8bps apart from 2Y yields with has came off by 1bps to 0.29%.
In India, the borrowing cost may not come down before fall in inflation as indicated by RBI. Yesterday, 10Y GOI yield has covered its fall in previous session by gaining 2bps (8.74%).
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 8:00uur cijfers uit Duitsland, 14:30uur en 17uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.95% hoger. De AEX futures laten een vlakke opening zien. De Eur/Usd op 1.38050.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 13 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, september (definitief), 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 8 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 7 oktober, 17.00 uur
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 13 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4172
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 14-10-2011
FT interview: Jean-Claude Trichet
For 30 years, whenever economic crises hit the world, Jean-Claude Trichet was at the centre of action. As his career draws to a close – his eight-year term as European Central Bank president ends in three weeks – the former French finance official and Banque de France governor is in the midst of his biggest crisis yet. “It is a historical event of the first magnitude, the worst crisis since the second world war,” he exclaims. “It could have produced a great depression had appropriate decisions not been taken at the appropriate time.”
At its epicentre is Europe’s 17-country eurozone. The bloc’s leaders are scrambling to assemble a rescue package that will finally restore the stability of Europe’s 13-year old monetary union. In an interview with the Financial Times, however, Mr Trichet sees the crisis as broader – as a crisis of the west. “All advanced economies are being x-rayed by the present crisis and revealing their skeletons and the weaknesses in their skeletons. It’s true for all of us – for Japan, for the US, for Europeans.”
Drawing lessons in his final days in office, Mr Trichet is convinced the long term result will be that Europe is propelled towards greater economic integration – extending the European “project,” for which he has pushed for much of his life. “I think that we are experiencing history in the making. My sense is that no country, no individual, no leader will take the responsibility of going backwards. That’s the reason why I am confident.”
The burden on Mr Trichet, especially over the past four years, has been enormous. At endless global meetings, he has helped coordinate - or at least avoided clashes between - the world’s central banks. In Europe, he has pushed for action at emergency summits that have sometimes descended into haranguing matches. In Germany, the ECB has faced fierce resistance over the massive extension of its lending to banks and intervention in government bond markets.
Resting his glasses on his iPad in the Financial Times’ London offices, his silver-hair neatly trimmed, Mr Trichet looks tired. But in an hour long discussion he is as combative as ever. For Europe, he says,, “X rays” have exposed, not weaknesses in the euro as a currency – the ECB president insists its future is “evidently not in danger” – but in the eurozone’s governance.
The region’s crisis after Greece and other countries pumped up their economies on cheap credit and allowed international competitiveness to plunge. Eurozone fiscal rules were blithely ignored, including by Germany, while financial markets had encouraged a pre-crisis period of “benign neglect” – for instance, by demanding the same interest rate on Greece government debt as on Germany’s.
Eurozone policymakers, says Mr Trichet, now have to break a vicious cycle in which governments’ debt woes are fuelling investor nervousness about banks. Their responsibilities are twofold. Attention has focused in recent days on the urgent need to strengthen banks’ balance sheets. But the ECB president also wants steps “to restore as completely as possible the credibility” of sovereign debt.
In the ECB’s eyes, politicians have escalated the crisis dangerously by undermining perceptions about the security of eurozone government bonds. Germany has led demands that when countries such as Greece are bailed-out, private sector investors should take a hit. As early as a European summit in October last year, Mr Trichet warned Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, that they risked simply driving up borrowing costs. Since then, his warnings have been vindicated – but gone unheeded. In July, eurozone leaders agreed on a “private sector involvement” in Greece’s bailout which would have led to a 21 per cent notional “haircut” on Greek debt holdings. Now Germany and others are pushing for more.
Whatever his private thoughts, Mr Trichet – always disciplined in his communication - chooses his words carefully. He is clearly anxious not to add public spats to the eurozone’s problems. Its political leaders “have said very clearly that Greece is a special case and that as regards all other countries, the goal was to fully honour the signature of governments. I would say it is important to avoid any ambiguity in this respect,” he says calmly.
The ECB, itself, has reached the limits of what it can do, Mr Trichet argues. If Greece is pushed into default, the central bank would no longer be able to accept its governments bonds as collateral from Greek banks seeking its live-saving liquidity. As a result, other eurozone governments would have to backstop its financial system to avert economic catastrophe.
For the eurozone as a whole, Mr Trichet stresses measures it has taken to support banks – last week it announced two offers of unlimited one-year loans, on top of the unlimited weekly, monthly and three monthly liquidity already available. But he makes clear that the ECB will not act as a “lender of last resort” to governments. Its government bond buying programme – which has seen it buying more than €160bn mostly in southern European government debt – is aimed simply at ensuring its monetary policy decisions are “transmitted” via functioning bond markets into the real economy. “I think that the ECB has done all it could to be up to its responsibilities in exceptional circumstances…The ultimate backstop is, of course, the governments. To do anything that would let governments off their responsibilities would be a recipe for failure.” The governments have an instrument in place – the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility which, Mr Trichet says, could be leveraged to provide a firewall.
In seeing a restricted role for the central bank, Mr Trichet is in line with the tradition of Germany’s famously-conservative Bundesbank, on which the ECB was modelled. When he arrived in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital, in November 2003, he was seen – especially by his countrymen – as an inflation “hawk” and as much of a “Bundesbank-er” as was possible for a Frenchman.
The crisis, however, has re-written the ECB’s relationship with Germany. The country’s conservatives fear its bond-buying programme has already set the wrong incentives for governments and that its support for banks had piled up dangerous risks on its balance sheet. Earlier this year, Axel Weber resigned as Bundesbank president and from the ECB’s governing council after voicing public opposition to bond buying. In September, his compatriot Jürgen Stark announced his resignation from the ECB’s executive board for similar reasons.
Asked if he has lost Germans’ support for Europe’s economic integration, Mr Trichet is, again, diplomatic. “I don’t know what ‘the Germans’ means…We are living in cultures that are very deep, very profound and very complex, obviously, and where you have a lot of different opinions.” He pays tribute to Mr Stark, who has not spoken out publicly against ECB policy, as “a very close friend” and committed European – although noticably fails to mention Mr Weber.
What about the view, widely-held in continental Europe, that governments should not be pushed around by markets. There is a moment’s light relief as Mr Trichet laughs. “I think we are proud to live in market economies because they have proved the right way of producing wealth, and all other experiments have proved catastrophic. That said market economics have to be disciplined. You must have rules. You cannot rely too naively on the spontaneous functioning of markets.”
Unfortunate lessons were drawn from the dotcom bubble crash at the start of the century, however. “The idea was that financial markets were extraordinary resilient – which was plain wrong. I must say, I never shared the view that we were in a world where there was no risk.”
Now his concern is that politics of the eurozone’s rescue are being complicated by those driving financial markets - the private sector bankers - continuing to pay themselves excessive pay and bonuses. “We have a real problem of values. Our democracies to not understand some behaviour,” he warns
Steps have already been taken to buttress the eurozone over the longer term, Mr Trichet points out – including the better monitoring of fiscal policies and competitiveness, the latter being an issue on which the ECB president says he has long campaigned. But he wants to go further with introduce European Union treaty changes empowering European institutions to impose decisions on miscreant eurozone countries.
Earlier this year, in a speech in Aachen, where he was awarded Germany’s Charlemagne prize, Mr Trichet proposed the eventual setting up of a European finance ministry. It is an idea on which the ECB president is happy to expand. Broadly, he sees a future finance Tsar as having three main tasks. The first would be economic “surveillance” with powers to impose decisions where necessary. Second, he or she would oversee the eurozone financial sector – ensuring that the fate of banks in individual countries was not linked, as now, to the strength of their government’s finances. Thirdly, they would represent the eurozone in global financial institutions.
Ultimately, Mr Trichet sees this as a project for the whole of the 27-country European Union, including those members, such as the UK, which remain outside the eurozone. “Of course, the possibility of imposing decisions would not apply outside the euro area – that goes without saying,” he hastens to add.
Is it a realistic agenda? Are not Europeans tired of economic integration – and, in countries such as Germany, increasingly worried about its cost? Mr Trichet is adamant. “There are more reasons today for the Europeans to unite in economic, financial and monetary fields than there were at the beginning of the 1950s, at the time of Robert Schuman [the French statesman considered one of the EU’s founding fathers]. I really think that the transformation of the world…the emergence of China, India, of Latin America, calls for the Europeans to unite much more. One of the lessons of the crisis is precisely that they need more unity. In my opinion, this is not necessarily communicated appropriately to the public, but I think that these truths are there.”
Wall Street is gisteren gemengd gesloten, waarbij de technologiesector in de lift zat in aanloop naar cijfers van Google, maar financials onder druk stonden door teleurstellende resultaten van J.P. Morgan Chase.
De Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,4% lager op 11.478,13 punten. De S&P 500 daalde 0,3% tot 1.203,66 punten, terwijl de Nasdaq 0,6% won tot 2.620,24 punten.
Het aantal nieuwe aanvragen voor een werkloosheidsuitkering in de Verenigde Staten is vorige week onverwacht gedaald, hoewel dit grotendeels teniet wordt gedaan door een herziene toename van het aantal nieuwe aanvragen de week ervoor, blijkt gisteren uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse ministerie van Arbeid. Het aantal nieuwe uitkeringsaanvragen daalde in de week eindigend op 8 oktober ten opzichte van de week daarvoor met 1.000 tot 404.000. Economen vooraf geraadpleegd door Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst rekenden op een toename van het aantal nieuwe aanvragen met 4.000. Het aantal eerste uitkeringsaanvragen voor de week eindigend op 1 oktober werd echter opwaarts bijgesteld tot 405.000, van een eerder gemelde 401.000.
Het aantal verlengde uitkeringsaanvragen voor de week eindigend op 1 oktober daalde met 55.000 tot 3,7 miljoen.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ook lager gesloten, waarbij vooral banken terrein verloren door een waarschuwing van de Europese Centrale Bank. De markt in Italië ging hard onderuit door zorgen over de politieke stabiliteit van het land.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 1,7% lager op 2.332,52. De DAX-30 daalde 1,3% tot 5.914,84, de CAC-40 sloot 1,3% lager op 3.186,94 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,7% op 5.403,38.
In Italie sloot de FTSE MIB-index 3,7% in de min, waarbij de banken UniCredit en Intesa Sanpaolo respectievelijk 12,1% en 8,2% verloren.
De Italiaanse beurs reageerde op premier Silvio Belusconi, die gisteren om het vertrouwen van zijn regering vroeg nadat het parlement eerder in de week een begrotingsvoorstel had weggestemd. Een geslaagde veiling van Italiaans staatspapier kon het sentiment niet meer keren.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag hoger gesloten. De staatspapieren maakten daarmee een deel van de recente verliezen goed.
De aandacht ging vooral uit naar een veiling van Italiaanse staatsobligaties. Het Zuid-Europese land wist ongeveer EUR6,2 miljard op te halen met vier leningen, al bleven de kosten hoog.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren lager gesloten, waarbij de AEX-index een goed deel van de winst van een dag eerder weer inleverde, vooral gedrukt door lagere koersen van de financiele hoofdfondsen.
De AEX-index sloot 0,9% lager op 297,39 punten, de Midkap verloor 0,8% op 479,50 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,6% lager op 415,59 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, nadat de Amerikaanse overheid bekendmaakte dat de olievoorraden vorige week onverwacht zijn toegenomen, wat wijst op een zwakkere vraag.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,34 lager op $84,23.
Goud
Vanaf 1533 kan een herstel ofwel pullback worden ingezet, waarbij de koers in eerste instantie terug kan naar afgerond 1700. De stieren krabbelen voorzichtig op richting 1700. Echter, vooralsnog verspert de weerstand 1678,70 de weg omhoog. Let op, er is sprake van een herstelbeweging onder de sleepkabel, pas boven circa 1750 vindt er een draai plaats en verdwijnt de berendreiging. Zolang de koers onder de sleepkabel beweegt ligt de start van een dalende
trendfase op de loer. Kortom, pas op voor de beer, hij is nog niet verslagen. Speculanten blijven zitten en stappen uit bij topvorming onder 1750. Anderen wachten rustig af wat dit cruciale niveau gaat bieden. Het technische plaatje op middellange termijn is aanzienlijk verbeterd. Na een vallend mes vanaf afgerond 1920 zijn de beren aan de kant gezet en tonen de stieren hun kracht. Op afgerond 1530 is de bodem gezet, ondersteund met bodemvorming in de RSI hervatten de stieren de uptrend. Ze zijn inmiddels aanbeland bij de eerste retracementgrens
op circa 1680, hierboven zet het herstel door naar uiterlijk 1800. Let op, binnenkort een lagere top onder 1920 betekent wel een afzwakking van de trend. De stieren hervatten overtuigend de
uptrend.
Zilver
Het technische beeld is onlangs licht verbeterd. De stieren hebben het herstel voortgezet, waarmee tevens de 32,33 weerstand is gebroken. Echter, de koers noteert nog wel onder de
sleepkabel, die samenvalt met de 38,2% retracementgrens. Kortom, een cruciaal draaipunt. Bij een zwarte candle onder circa 34,00 wordt de pullback afgerond en kan een downtrend van start gaan. Mochten de stieren doorstomen, dan is er sprake geweest van een valse uitbraak
en kan de stijgende trendfase worden hervat. De stieren geven signalen af, maar niet voldoende om een koopconditie af te geven. Dit gebeurt pas boven de sleepkabel op circa 34,00.
A quarter of millionaires don't pay enough in federal taxes to satisfy the Buffett Rule, according to a new study from the Congressional Research Service.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has made a big deal of how much less many ultra-rich pay in federal taxes as a percent of their income than the middle class. So much of a big deal, in fact, that President Obama proposed the Buffett Rule.
The Buffett Rule is a guiding principle for tax reform to ensure that millionaires pay a higher percentage of their income in federal taxes than those who make less.
The CRS found that 94,500 millionaires pay an effective federal tax rate that is less than that paid by 10.4 million moderate-income taxpayers.
That is, 25% of those with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million pay a smaller portion of their income in federal taxes -- income, payroll and corporate -- than 10% of those with AGIs below $100,000.
The Buffett Rule is a guiding principle for tax reform to ensure that millionaires pay a higher percentage of their income in federal taxes than those who make less.
The CRS found that 94,500 millionaires pay an effective federal tax rate that is less than that paid by 10.4 million moderate-income taxpayers.
That is, 25% of those with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million pay a smaller portion of their income in federal taxes -- income, payroll and corporate -- than 10% of those with AGIs below $100,000.
There are two key reasons why a millionaire or billionaire may end up paying a lower percentage of his income than the average American: A lot of his money may come from investments, which are taxed at a lower rate than wages, and he may not pay very much in payroll taxes since they are only assessed on wage income, which could be a small share of his total income.
The CRS report also analyzed arguments that critics of the Buffett Rule make.
Critics of higher taxes, for instance, often assert that small businesses are the source of the greatest job creation, and so raising rates on small business owners would be bad for the economy.
The report notes, however, that recent studies have found that "small businesses contribute only slightly more jobs than larger businesses relative to their employment share." And that difference is attributable to hiring by startups, which also end up destroying about 40% of the new jobs they create within five years when the businesses flame out.
Furthermore, the CRS report said, "most small business owners of startup firms are not in the top income categories and would not be affected by tax policies that observe the Buffett Rule."
More broadly, the report noted that only about 1% of all federal tax returns that report business income have AGIs over $1 million. And of those, only a quarter appear to pay tax rates that would violate the Buffett Rule.
"[That] suggests that tax reform policies designed to ensure adherence to the Buffett Rule will affect few small businesses," the CRS report said.
The debate over how much to tax millionaires and billionaires is far from over, as Congress faces the prospect of having to reduce deficits by trillions of dollars in the coming years.
Buffett this week tried to advance his campaign to get lawmakers to "stop coddling" the super-rich as they contemplate the sacrifices Americans should make in the quest to put the country on a more sustainable path.
In a letter to Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp Tuesday, Buffett revealed new details about his income and tax burden, and reiterated his promise to release his federal tax return if his ultra-rich peers did the same.
Northrop pulls out of Farnborough air show
(Reuters) - Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N) on Thursday pulled out of the 2012 international air show in Farnborough, England, a dramatic move underscoring the company's drive to cut costs as it prepares for leaner times in the global defense market.
Northrop has participated in the air shows -- which alternate between Paris and Farnborough -- each year since it merged with Grumman in 1994, said spokesman Randy Belote.
Belote said the company had already been reducing its footprint at the international air shows in recent years, but pulling out completely would save millions of dollars.
He said it did not diminish the company's commitment to Britain or other international customers.
Virginia-based defense consultant Loren Thompson said it would be the first time in decades that the company -- one of the five largest U.S. defense contractors -- was not present at the big international showcase of commercial and military aircraft.
"This is just the latest indication of how determined Chairman Wes Bush is to cut costs," Thompson told Reuters. "They're going to break the model in terms of what is expected in terms of industry leaders."
Bush has realigned the company around four business areas focused on cybersecurity, logistics, communications and intelligence, and unmanned systems, and recently spun off the company's shipbuilding business.
Belote said Northrop was reevaluating its participation in other international air shows as well, but was only prepared to announce its decision about Farnborough at this point.
A$, Chance to Reshort
In the Oct 5th email on the A$, affirmed the short position (sold on Sept 6th at 1.0500), but said to use a very aggressive stop on a close above the bearish trendline from Sept 21st, as the risk in the position was rising sharply. The market closed above there that day (then at .9620, closed at .9655 for an 845 tick profit), and has continued to surge higher since. Currently, the market is reversing lower from an earlier test of key resistance at 1.0235/55 (both the a 50% retracement from the Jul high at 1.1080, 62% from the Sept high at 1.0765, and as discussed yesterday in my intraday scrolling commentary at www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm . Temporarily can use the word "demo" for both log on and password). With the market overbought after the last week of sharp gains, this area is likely to hold at least near term, and with potential for more significant declines back to Oct 4th low at .9390 and even below ahead (see longer term below). So for now, would short here (currently at 1.0120). Initially use a wide stop on a close above 1.0280 to allow for more topping nearby. But there is some risk for a more extended period of wide consolidating before the new lows are seen, or even that a more important low is already in place (not currently favored), so will want to switch to a trailing stop on further weakness ahead to maintain a good overall risk/reward in the position. Nearby support is seen at 1.0045/55 and .9915/25 (38% from the .9390 low).
Longer term, remain a bear as the Jul high at 1.1080 is seen likely completing a major top for at least another 9-12 months, and with eventual declines toward .9125/50, .8525/50 and possibly below in the bigger picture. However, there is still no confirmation "pattern-wise" of such a high (5 waves down), in turn leaving open scope for another few months of wide topping and potentially even marginal highs above 1.1080, as part of this larger topping process. Though not currently favored, it is a risk. Note too the weekly macd remains in sell mode (see bottom of weekly chart/2nd chart below), adding to the view that even this best scenario, would only be a more extended period of wide topping. So for now, would maintain the bearish bias that was put in place on Aug 12th at 1.0360 unless the broader topping scenario starts to appear more likely.
Current:
Nearer term : resold Oct 13th at 1.0120, initially stop on close above 1.0280
Last : short Sept 6 at 1.0500, took large profs Oct 6 above bear t-line from Sep 21 ( .9620, closed .9655).
Longer term: reversed to bearish bias on Aug 12th at 1.0360 from bullish on Jul 15th at 1.0645.
Last : bull bias on May 17th at 1.0610 to neutral on Jul 6th at 1.0685.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38070, om 23:00uur 1.37960, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 110.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57410, om 23:00uur 1.57820, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 410.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23730, om 23:00uur 1.23730, gemiddeld dagverschil van 0.
USD/JPY : 7uur 77.090, om 23:00uur 76.850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 240.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87710, om 23:00uur 0.87420, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01870, om 23:00uur 1.01850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 20.
EUR/USD
“Op 1,3151 wordt wat steun gevonden. Zolang de koers hierboven noteert wordt een kortstondige opleving niet uitgesloten. Dit is slechts een reactie in de downtrend”, luidde recent mijn commentaar. De stieren zorgden inderdaad voor een opleving vanaf het steunpunt 1,3151. Momenteel zijn zij aangekomen bij de weerstandzone 1,3685-1,3923. Pas boven deze weerstandzone en tevens de sleepkabel op circa 1,40 breken de stieren echt door. Kortom, een hervatting van de dalende trendfase is aannemelijk. Speculanten verzilveren opgebouwde
winsten bij de eerste zwarte candle. Dat is dan tevens het moment om een verkoopconditie aan te kondigen. Op weekbasis is de rebound ingezet. De 50,0% retracementgrens zou uitermate geschikt zijn, hier ligt namelijk ook de sleepkabel. Een ideale plek om de rebound af te ronden en de downtrend te starten. Kortom, er is sprake van een rebound in de negatieve overgangsfase.
Korte termijn spelers spelen nog een klein stukje mee met de rebound. Anderen wachten op topvorming om daarna de downtrend te bespelen.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. Dow (11478.13) was down 0.35% while the Nasdaq (2620.24) was up 0.6%. On the daily chart we could spot a bear pattern now and this signals that Dow can fall below 11000 once again. The US Retail Sales data release is due today. Will this data release will be a trigger for the fall? We will have to wait and see.
The Asian markets are trading lower today. Australia (4264.60) is down 0.96%, Nikkei (8759.57) is down 0.72%, Shanghai (2429.05) is down 0.40%, Hong Kong (18533.87) is down 1.19% and Taiwan (7371.76) is down 0.76%. The Sensex (16883.92, down 74.47 points) and Nifty (5077.85, down 21.55 points) had closed lower yesterday and fall further today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (84.13) has dipped further. The weak Chinese trade data and the EIA's data release showing an increase in the US Crude inventories are keeping the price pressured on the downside. As mentioned yesterday. with strong Resistance in 86.50-88.00 region, we see good chances of a sharp fall to 70 in the coming days/weeks.
Although Gold (1667.60) is continuing to trade above 1650 over the last few days, it is not gaining strength for a strong rise/close above its Resistance at 1685. This leaves high chances of a fall once to 1600 or even lower.
Silver (31.63) has dipped below 32. We see chances of a fall to 30-29 in the coming days.
Copper (3.34) is trading sideways between 3.20-40 over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed and we will have to wait for a break out of this sideways range. However, the bigger picture is still bearish with strong Resistance in 3.40-60 region.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3750) is hesitating to break above 1.3800, weighed down by the S&P downgrade of Spain from AA to AA-. Perhaps it needs another positive catalyst. The market will possibly wait for today's US Retail Sales data to see whether it will confirm last week's good NFP numbers and this week's good EU IIP data. Please take a look at
www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml
Dollar-Yen (76.90) remains stable. Movement in Euro-Yen (105.75) largely reflects movements in EURUSD. Important Resistance is seen between current levels and 106.50 on the Cross. The Aussie (1.0170) is holding on its impressive gains of the last few days. Important Support seen at 1.0120 and 1.0060.
The Pound (1.5738) is being unable to rise past 1.5800 but looks mixed in the near term, trading between 1.57-58. Dollar-Swiss (0.8990) rose to nearly 0.9040 yesterday and seems to have good Support in the 0.8920-8850 region now. Dips could be bought.
In Asia, the USDSGD (1.2729) has bounced from a low of 1.2688 today. It needs to be seen whether it can continue to get Support at 1.2700 or not. The USDKRW (1161.50) has also bounced a bit from today's low of 1156.90. Could be that Dollar-Rupee (49.12) will remain quiet between 49.00 and 49.20 today.
INTEREST RATES
In Euro area, S&P downgrade Spain on negative outlook to AA- from AA. The Spanish 10Y yields spiked up by 20bps to 5.20%, trading at a crucial resistance and a break above this can take it to 5.50%. German bunds prices rallied compressing the yields across all tenors between 8bps and 9bps, 2Y closed at 0.63% (-8bps) and 30Y closed at 2.84% (-9bps).
In US, bond yields fell releasing it previous gains marginally, 2Y at 0.29% (stable), 5Y to1.09% (-5bps), 10Y to 2.18 (-1bps) and 30Y to 3.15% (-2bps).
In India, 10Y yields came off by 2bps to 8.72%. We expect a consolidation at 8.60% and 8.90% for next couple of sessions before releasing 30bps to 40bps
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 15:55uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.95% lager. De AEX futures laten een licht hogere opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat vlak 1.37840.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
For 30 years, whenever economic crises hit the world, Jean-Claude Trichet was at the centre of action. As his career draws to a close – his eight-year term as European Central Bank president ends in three weeks – the former French finance official and Banque de France governor is in the midst of his biggest crisis yet. “It is a historical event of the first magnitude, the worst crisis since the second world war,” he exclaims. “It could have produced a great depression had appropriate decisions not been taken at the appropriate time.”
At its epicentre is Europe’s 17-country eurozone. The bloc’s leaders are scrambling to assemble a rescue package that will finally restore the stability of Europe’s 13-year old monetary union. In an interview with the Financial Times, however, Mr Trichet sees the crisis as broader – as a crisis of the west. “All advanced economies are being x-rayed by the present crisis and revealing their skeletons and the weaknesses in their skeletons. It’s true for all of us – for Japan, for the US, for Europeans.”
Drawing lessons in his final days in office, Mr Trichet is convinced the long term result will be that Europe is propelled towards greater economic integration – extending the European “project,” for which he has pushed for much of his life. “I think that we are experiencing history in the making. My sense is that no country, no individual, no leader will take the responsibility of going backwards. That’s the reason why I am confident.”
The burden on Mr Trichet, especially over the past four years, has been enormous. At endless global meetings, he has helped coordinate - or at least avoided clashes between - the world’s central banks. In Europe, he has pushed for action at emergency summits that have sometimes descended into haranguing matches. In Germany, the ECB has faced fierce resistance over the massive extension of its lending to banks and intervention in government bond markets.
Resting his glasses on his iPad in the Financial Times’ London offices, his silver-hair neatly trimmed, Mr Trichet looks tired. But in an hour long discussion he is as combative as ever. For Europe, he says,, “X rays” have exposed, not weaknesses in the euro as a currency – the ECB president insists its future is “evidently not in danger” – but in the eurozone’s governance.
The region’s crisis after Greece and other countries pumped up their economies on cheap credit and allowed international competitiveness to plunge. Eurozone fiscal rules were blithely ignored, including by Germany, while financial markets had encouraged a pre-crisis period of “benign neglect” – for instance, by demanding the same interest rate on Greece government debt as on Germany’s.
Eurozone policymakers, says Mr Trichet, now have to break a vicious cycle in which governments’ debt woes are fuelling investor nervousness about banks. Their responsibilities are twofold. Attention has focused in recent days on the urgent need to strengthen banks’ balance sheets. But the ECB president also wants steps “to restore as completely as possible the credibility” of sovereign debt.
In the ECB’s eyes, politicians have escalated the crisis dangerously by undermining perceptions about the security of eurozone government bonds. Germany has led demands that when countries such as Greece are bailed-out, private sector investors should take a hit. As early as a European summit in October last year, Mr Trichet warned Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, that they risked simply driving up borrowing costs. Since then, his warnings have been vindicated – but gone unheeded. In July, eurozone leaders agreed on a “private sector involvement” in Greece’s bailout which would have led to a 21 per cent notional “haircut” on Greek debt holdings. Now Germany and others are pushing for more.
Whatever his private thoughts, Mr Trichet – always disciplined in his communication - chooses his words carefully. He is clearly anxious not to add public spats to the eurozone’s problems. Its political leaders “have said very clearly that Greece is a special case and that as regards all other countries, the goal was to fully honour the signature of governments. I would say it is important to avoid any ambiguity in this respect,” he says calmly.
The ECB, itself, has reached the limits of what it can do, Mr Trichet argues. If Greece is pushed into default, the central bank would no longer be able to accept its governments bonds as collateral from Greek banks seeking its live-saving liquidity. As a result, other eurozone governments would have to backstop its financial system to avert economic catastrophe.
For the eurozone as a whole, Mr Trichet stresses measures it has taken to support banks – last week it announced two offers of unlimited one-year loans, on top of the unlimited weekly, monthly and three monthly liquidity already available. But he makes clear that the ECB will not act as a “lender of last resort” to governments. Its government bond buying programme – which has seen it buying more than €160bn mostly in southern European government debt – is aimed simply at ensuring its monetary policy decisions are “transmitted” via functioning bond markets into the real economy. “I think that the ECB has done all it could to be up to its responsibilities in exceptional circumstances…The ultimate backstop is, of course, the governments. To do anything that would let governments off their responsibilities would be a recipe for failure.” The governments have an instrument in place – the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility which, Mr Trichet says, could be leveraged to provide a firewall.
In seeing a restricted role for the central bank, Mr Trichet is in line with the tradition of Germany’s famously-conservative Bundesbank, on which the ECB was modelled. When he arrived in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital, in November 2003, he was seen – especially by his countrymen – as an inflation “hawk” and as much of a “Bundesbank-er” as was possible for a Frenchman.
The crisis, however, has re-written the ECB’s relationship with Germany. The country’s conservatives fear its bond-buying programme has already set the wrong incentives for governments and that its support for banks had piled up dangerous risks on its balance sheet. Earlier this year, Axel Weber resigned as Bundesbank president and from the ECB’s governing council after voicing public opposition to bond buying. In September, his compatriot Jürgen Stark announced his resignation from the ECB’s executive board for similar reasons.
Asked if he has lost Germans’ support for Europe’s economic integration, Mr Trichet is, again, diplomatic. “I don’t know what ‘the Germans’ means…We are living in cultures that are very deep, very profound and very complex, obviously, and where you have a lot of different opinions.” He pays tribute to Mr Stark, who has not spoken out publicly against ECB policy, as “a very close friend” and committed European – although noticably fails to mention Mr Weber.
What about the view, widely-held in continental Europe, that governments should not be pushed around by markets. There is a moment’s light relief as Mr Trichet laughs. “I think we are proud to live in market economies because they have proved the right way of producing wealth, and all other experiments have proved catastrophic. That said market economics have to be disciplined. You must have rules. You cannot rely too naively on the spontaneous functioning of markets.”
Unfortunate lessons were drawn from the dotcom bubble crash at the start of the century, however. “The idea was that financial markets were extraordinary resilient – which was plain wrong. I must say, I never shared the view that we were in a world where there was no risk.”
Now his concern is that politics of the eurozone’s rescue are being complicated by those driving financial markets - the private sector bankers - continuing to pay themselves excessive pay and bonuses. “We have a real problem of values. Our democracies to not understand some behaviour,” he warns
Steps have already been taken to buttress the eurozone over the longer term, Mr Trichet points out – including the better monitoring of fiscal policies and competitiveness, the latter being an issue on which the ECB president says he has long campaigned. But he wants to go further with introduce European Union treaty changes empowering European institutions to impose decisions on miscreant eurozone countries.
Earlier this year, in a speech in Aachen, where he was awarded Germany’s Charlemagne prize, Mr Trichet proposed the eventual setting up of a European finance ministry. It is an idea on which the ECB president is happy to expand. Broadly, he sees a future finance Tsar as having three main tasks. The first would be economic “surveillance” with powers to impose decisions where necessary. Second, he or she would oversee the eurozone financial sector – ensuring that the fate of banks in individual countries was not linked, as now, to the strength of their government’s finances. Thirdly, they would represent the eurozone in global financial institutions.
Ultimately, Mr Trichet sees this as a project for the whole of the 27-country European Union, including those members, such as the UK, which remain outside the eurozone. “Of course, the possibility of imposing decisions would not apply outside the euro area – that goes without saying,” he hastens to add.
Is it a realistic agenda? Are not Europeans tired of economic integration – and, in countries such as Germany, increasingly worried about its cost? Mr Trichet is adamant. “There are more reasons today for the Europeans to unite in economic, financial and monetary fields than there were at the beginning of the 1950s, at the time of Robert Schuman [the French statesman considered one of the EU’s founding fathers]. I really think that the transformation of the world…the emergence of China, India, of Latin America, calls for the Europeans to unite much more. One of the lessons of the crisis is precisely that they need more unity. In my opinion, this is not necessarily communicated appropriately to the public, but I think that these truths are there.”
Wall Street is gisteren gemengd gesloten, waarbij de technologiesector in de lift zat in aanloop naar cijfers van Google, maar financials onder druk stonden door teleurstellende resultaten van J.P. Morgan Chase.
De Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,4% lager op 11.478,13 punten. De S&P 500 daalde 0,3% tot 1.203,66 punten, terwijl de Nasdaq 0,6% won tot 2.620,24 punten.
Het aantal nieuwe aanvragen voor een werkloosheidsuitkering in de Verenigde Staten is vorige week onverwacht gedaald, hoewel dit grotendeels teniet wordt gedaan door een herziene toename van het aantal nieuwe aanvragen de week ervoor, blijkt gisteren uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse ministerie van Arbeid. Het aantal nieuwe uitkeringsaanvragen daalde in de week eindigend op 8 oktober ten opzichte van de week daarvoor met 1.000 tot 404.000. Economen vooraf geraadpleegd door Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst rekenden op een toename van het aantal nieuwe aanvragen met 4.000. Het aantal eerste uitkeringsaanvragen voor de week eindigend op 1 oktober werd echter opwaarts bijgesteld tot 405.000, van een eerder gemelde 401.000.
Het aantal verlengde uitkeringsaanvragen voor de week eindigend op 1 oktober daalde met 55.000 tot 3,7 miljoen.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ook lager gesloten, waarbij vooral banken terrein verloren door een waarschuwing van de Europese Centrale Bank. De markt in Italië ging hard onderuit door zorgen over de politieke stabiliteit van het land.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 1,7% lager op 2.332,52. De DAX-30 daalde 1,3% tot 5.914,84, de CAC-40 sloot 1,3% lager op 3.186,94 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,7% op 5.403,38.
In Italie sloot de FTSE MIB-index 3,7% in de min, waarbij de banken UniCredit en Intesa Sanpaolo respectievelijk 12,1% en 8,2% verloren.
De Italiaanse beurs reageerde op premier Silvio Belusconi, die gisteren om het vertrouwen van zijn regering vroeg nadat het parlement eerder in de week een begrotingsvoorstel had weggestemd. Een geslaagde veiling van Italiaans staatspapier kon het sentiment niet meer keren.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag hoger gesloten. De staatspapieren maakten daarmee een deel van de recente verliezen goed.
De aandacht ging vooral uit naar een veiling van Italiaanse staatsobligaties. Het Zuid-Europese land wist ongeveer EUR6,2 miljard op te halen met vier leningen, al bleven de kosten hoog.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren lager gesloten, waarbij de AEX-index een goed deel van de winst van een dag eerder weer inleverde, vooral gedrukt door lagere koersen van de financiele hoofdfondsen.
De AEX-index sloot 0,9% lager op 297,39 punten, de Midkap verloor 0,8% op 479,50 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,6% lager op 415,59 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, nadat de Amerikaanse overheid bekendmaakte dat de olievoorraden vorige week onverwacht zijn toegenomen, wat wijst op een zwakkere vraag.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,34 lager op $84,23.
Goud
Vanaf 1533 kan een herstel ofwel pullback worden ingezet, waarbij de koers in eerste instantie terug kan naar afgerond 1700. De stieren krabbelen voorzichtig op richting 1700. Echter, vooralsnog verspert de weerstand 1678,70 de weg omhoog. Let op, er is sprake van een herstelbeweging onder de sleepkabel, pas boven circa 1750 vindt er een draai plaats en verdwijnt de berendreiging. Zolang de koers onder de sleepkabel beweegt ligt de start van een dalende
trendfase op de loer. Kortom, pas op voor de beer, hij is nog niet verslagen. Speculanten blijven zitten en stappen uit bij topvorming onder 1750. Anderen wachten rustig af wat dit cruciale niveau gaat bieden. Het technische plaatje op middellange termijn is aanzienlijk verbeterd. Na een vallend mes vanaf afgerond 1920 zijn de beren aan de kant gezet en tonen de stieren hun kracht. Op afgerond 1530 is de bodem gezet, ondersteund met bodemvorming in de RSI hervatten de stieren de uptrend. Ze zijn inmiddels aanbeland bij de eerste retracementgrens
op circa 1680, hierboven zet het herstel door naar uiterlijk 1800. Let op, binnenkort een lagere top onder 1920 betekent wel een afzwakking van de trend. De stieren hervatten overtuigend de
uptrend.
Zilver
Het technische beeld is onlangs licht verbeterd. De stieren hebben het herstel voortgezet, waarmee tevens de 32,33 weerstand is gebroken. Echter, de koers noteert nog wel onder de
sleepkabel, die samenvalt met de 38,2% retracementgrens. Kortom, een cruciaal draaipunt. Bij een zwarte candle onder circa 34,00 wordt de pullback afgerond en kan een downtrend van start gaan. Mochten de stieren doorstomen, dan is er sprake geweest van een valse uitbraak
en kan de stijgende trendfase worden hervat. De stieren geven signalen af, maar niet voldoende om een koopconditie af te geven. Dit gebeurt pas boven de sleepkabel op circa 34,00.
A quarter of millionaires don't pay enough in federal taxes to satisfy the Buffett Rule, according to a new study from the Congressional Research Service.
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has made a big deal of how much less many ultra-rich pay in federal taxes as a percent of their income than the middle class. So much of a big deal, in fact, that President Obama proposed the Buffett Rule.
The Buffett Rule is a guiding principle for tax reform to ensure that millionaires pay a higher percentage of their income in federal taxes than those who make less.
The CRS found that 94,500 millionaires pay an effective federal tax rate that is less than that paid by 10.4 million moderate-income taxpayers.
That is, 25% of those with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million pay a smaller portion of their income in federal taxes -- income, payroll and corporate -- than 10% of those with AGIs below $100,000.
The Buffett Rule is a guiding principle for tax reform to ensure that millionaires pay a higher percentage of their income in federal taxes than those who make less.
The CRS found that 94,500 millionaires pay an effective federal tax rate that is less than that paid by 10.4 million moderate-income taxpayers.
That is, 25% of those with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million pay a smaller portion of their income in federal taxes -- income, payroll and corporate -- than 10% of those with AGIs below $100,000.
There are two key reasons why a millionaire or billionaire may end up paying a lower percentage of his income than the average American: A lot of his money may come from investments, which are taxed at a lower rate than wages, and he may not pay very much in payroll taxes since they are only assessed on wage income, which could be a small share of his total income.
The CRS report also analyzed arguments that critics of the Buffett Rule make.
Critics of higher taxes, for instance, often assert that small businesses are the source of the greatest job creation, and so raising rates on small business owners would be bad for the economy.
The report notes, however, that recent studies have found that "small businesses contribute only slightly more jobs than larger businesses relative to their employment share." And that difference is attributable to hiring by startups, which also end up destroying about 40% of the new jobs they create within five years when the businesses flame out.
Furthermore, the CRS report said, "most small business owners of startup firms are not in the top income categories and would not be affected by tax policies that observe the Buffett Rule."
More broadly, the report noted that only about 1% of all federal tax returns that report business income have AGIs over $1 million. And of those, only a quarter appear to pay tax rates that would violate the Buffett Rule.
"[That] suggests that tax reform policies designed to ensure adherence to the Buffett Rule will affect few small businesses," the CRS report said.
The debate over how much to tax millionaires and billionaires is far from over, as Congress faces the prospect of having to reduce deficits by trillions of dollars in the coming years.
Buffett this week tried to advance his campaign to get lawmakers to "stop coddling" the super-rich as they contemplate the sacrifices Americans should make in the quest to put the country on a more sustainable path.
In a letter to Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp Tuesday, Buffett revealed new details about his income and tax burden, and reiterated his promise to release his federal tax return if his ultra-rich peers did the same.
Northrop pulls out of Farnborough air show
(Reuters) - Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N) on Thursday pulled out of the 2012 international air show in Farnborough, England, a dramatic move underscoring the company's drive to cut costs as it prepares for leaner times in the global defense market.
Northrop has participated in the air shows -- which alternate between Paris and Farnborough -- each year since it merged with Grumman in 1994, said spokesman Randy Belote.
Belote said the company had already been reducing its footprint at the international air shows in recent years, but pulling out completely would save millions of dollars.
He said it did not diminish the company's commitment to Britain or other international customers.
Virginia-based defense consultant Loren Thompson said it would be the first time in decades that the company -- one of the five largest U.S. defense contractors -- was not present at the big international showcase of commercial and military aircraft.
"This is just the latest indication of how determined Chairman Wes Bush is to cut costs," Thompson told Reuters. "They're going to break the model in terms of what is expected in terms of industry leaders."
Bush has realigned the company around four business areas focused on cybersecurity, logistics, communications and intelligence, and unmanned systems, and recently spun off the company's shipbuilding business.
Belote said Northrop was reevaluating its participation in other international air shows as well, but was only prepared to announce its decision about Farnborough at this point.
A$, Chance to Reshort
In the Oct 5th email on the A$, affirmed the short position (sold on Sept 6th at 1.0500), but said to use a very aggressive stop on a close above the bearish trendline from Sept 21st, as the risk in the position was rising sharply. The market closed above there that day (then at .9620, closed at .9655 for an 845 tick profit), and has continued to surge higher since. Currently, the market is reversing lower from an earlier test of key resistance at 1.0235/55 (both the a 50% retracement from the Jul high at 1.1080, 62% from the Sept high at 1.0765, and as discussed yesterday in my intraday scrolling commentary at www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm . Temporarily can use the word "demo" for both log on and password). With the market overbought after the last week of sharp gains, this area is likely to hold at least near term, and with potential for more significant declines back to Oct 4th low at .9390 and even below ahead (see longer term below). So for now, would short here (currently at 1.0120). Initially use a wide stop on a close above 1.0280 to allow for more topping nearby. But there is some risk for a more extended period of wide consolidating before the new lows are seen, or even that a more important low is already in place (not currently favored), so will want to switch to a trailing stop on further weakness ahead to maintain a good overall risk/reward in the position. Nearby support is seen at 1.0045/55 and .9915/25 (38% from the .9390 low).
Longer term, remain a bear as the Jul high at 1.1080 is seen likely completing a major top for at least another 9-12 months, and with eventual declines toward .9125/50, .8525/50 and possibly below in the bigger picture. However, there is still no confirmation "pattern-wise" of such a high (5 waves down), in turn leaving open scope for another few months of wide topping and potentially even marginal highs above 1.1080, as part of this larger topping process. Though not currently favored, it is a risk. Note too the weekly macd remains in sell mode (see bottom of weekly chart/2nd chart below), adding to the view that even this best scenario, would only be a more extended period of wide topping. So for now, would maintain the bearish bias that was put in place on Aug 12th at 1.0360 unless the broader topping scenario starts to appear more likely.
Current:
Nearer term : resold Oct 13th at 1.0120, initially stop on close above 1.0280
Last : short Sept 6 at 1.0500, took large profs Oct 6 above bear t-line from Sep 21 ( .9620, closed .9655).
Longer term: reversed to bearish bias on Aug 12th at 1.0360 from bullish on Jul 15th at 1.0645.
Last : bull bias on May 17th at 1.0610 to neutral on Jul 6th at 1.0685.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38070, om 23:00uur 1.37960, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 110.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57410, om 23:00uur 1.57820, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 410.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23730, om 23:00uur 1.23730, gemiddeld dagverschil van 0.
USD/JPY : 7uur 77.090, om 23:00uur 76.850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 240.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87710, om 23:00uur 0.87420, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01870, om 23:00uur 1.01850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 20.
EUR/USD
“Op 1,3151 wordt wat steun gevonden. Zolang de koers hierboven noteert wordt een kortstondige opleving niet uitgesloten. Dit is slechts een reactie in de downtrend”, luidde recent mijn commentaar. De stieren zorgden inderdaad voor een opleving vanaf het steunpunt 1,3151. Momenteel zijn zij aangekomen bij de weerstandzone 1,3685-1,3923. Pas boven deze weerstandzone en tevens de sleepkabel op circa 1,40 breken de stieren echt door. Kortom, een hervatting van de dalende trendfase is aannemelijk. Speculanten verzilveren opgebouwde
winsten bij de eerste zwarte candle. Dat is dan tevens het moment om een verkoopconditie aan te kondigen. Op weekbasis is de rebound ingezet. De 50,0% retracementgrens zou uitermate geschikt zijn, hier ligt namelijk ook de sleepkabel. Een ideale plek om de rebound af te ronden en de downtrend te starten. Kortom, er is sprake van een rebound in de negatieve overgangsfase.
Korte termijn spelers spelen nog een klein stukje mee met de rebound. Anderen wachten op topvorming om daarna de downtrend te bespelen.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. Dow (11478.13) was down 0.35% while the Nasdaq (2620.24) was up 0.6%. On the daily chart we could spot a bear pattern now and this signals that Dow can fall below 11000 once again. The US Retail Sales data release is due today. Will this data release will be a trigger for the fall? We will have to wait and see.
The Asian markets are trading lower today. Australia (4264.60) is down 0.96%, Nikkei (8759.57) is down 0.72%, Shanghai (2429.05) is down 0.40%, Hong Kong (18533.87) is down 1.19% and Taiwan (7371.76) is down 0.76%. The Sensex (16883.92, down 74.47 points) and Nifty (5077.85, down 21.55 points) had closed lower yesterday and fall further today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (84.13) has dipped further. The weak Chinese trade data and the EIA's data release showing an increase in the US Crude inventories are keeping the price pressured on the downside. As mentioned yesterday. with strong Resistance in 86.50-88.00 region, we see good chances of a sharp fall to 70 in the coming days/weeks.
Although Gold (1667.60) is continuing to trade above 1650 over the last few days, it is not gaining strength for a strong rise/close above its Resistance at 1685. This leaves high chances of a fall once to 1600 or even lower.
Silver (31.63) has dipped below 32. We see chances of a fall to 30-29 in the coming days.
Copper (3.34) is trading sideways between 3.20-40 over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed and we will have to wait for a break out of this sideways range. However, the bigger picture is still bearish with strong Resistance in 3.40-60 region.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3750) is hesitating to break above 1.3800, weighed down by the S&P downgrade of Spain from AA to AA-. Perhaps it needs another positive catalyst. The market will possibly wait for today's US Retail Sales data to see whether it will confirm last week's good NFP numbers and this week's good EU IIP data. Please take a look at
www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml
Dollar-Yen (76.90) remains stable. Movement in Euro-Yen (105.75) largely reflects movements in EURUSD. Important Resistance is seen between current levels and 106.50 on the Cross. The Aussie (1.0170) is holding on its impressive gains of the last few days. Important Support seen at 1.0120 and 1.0060.
The Pound (1.5738) is being unable to rise past 1.5800 but looks mixed in the near term, trading between 1.57-58. Dollar-Swiss (0.8990) rose to nearly 0.9040 yesterday and seems to have good Support in the 0.8920-8850 region now. Dips could be bought.
In Asia, the USDSGD (1.2729) has bounced from a low of 1.2688 today. It needs to be seen whether it can continue to get Support at 1.2700 or not. The USDKRW (1161.50) has also bounced a bit from today's low of 1156.90. Could be that Dollar-Rupee (49.12) will remain quiet between 49.00 and 49.20 today.
INTEREST RATES
In Euro area, S&P downgrade Spain on negative outlook to AA- from AA. The Spanish 10Y yields spiked up by 20bps to 5.20%, trading at a crucial resistance and a break above this can take it to 5.50%. German bunds prices rallied compressing the yields across all tenors between 8bps and 9bps, 2Y closed at 0.63% (-8bps) and 30Y closed at 2.84% (-9bps).
In US, bond yields fell releasing it previous gains marginally, 2Y at 0.29% (stable), 5Y to1.09% (-5bps), 10Y to 2.18 (-1bps) and 30Y to 3.15% (-2bps).
In India, 10Y yields came off by 2bps to 8.72%. We expect a consolidation at 8.60% and 8.90% for next couple of sessions before releasing 30bps to 40bps
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 15:55uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat 0.95% lager. De AEX futures laten een licht hogere opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat vlak 1.37840.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 14 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, augustus, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
- VS, bedrijfsvoorraden, augustus, 16.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Vrijdag 14 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR2 miljard lopen af.
- Vrijdag 14 oktober tot zaterdag 15 oktober: G-20 bijeenkomst ministers van Financien.
- Zondag 16 oktober Tweede stemronde over kandidatuur Socialistische partij voor Franse presidentsverkiezingen in 2012.
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4203
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 17-10-2011
S&P's heeft vrijdag de kredietbeoordeling voor de lange termijn van BNP Paribas sa (BNP.FR) verlaagd naar AA-, van A-, het meest recente signaal dat de Griekse schuldencrisis langzaamaan Europa's financiële industrie besmet.
De kredietbeoordelaar geeft als reden voor de verlaging de blootstelling van de Franse bank aan Griekenland en andere noodlijdende Zuid-Europese landen, alsmede de lastiger financieringsomstandigheden.
In een reactie stelt een woordvoerster van BNP Paribas, "BNP Paribas blijft een van de best gerangschikte banken ter wereld."
Naast de verlaging van BNP Paribas verlaagde S&P's de stand-alone kredietprofielen van Credit Agricole sa (ACA.FR) en Societe Generale sa (GLE.FR), en de niet-genoteerde banken BPCE en Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel.
De beoordeling voor deze vier banken wat betreft de lange termijn hield S&P's ongewijzigd op A+.
Wall Street is vrijdag hoger gesloten, met name vanwege beter dan verwachte detailhandelsverkopen in september, hoop over een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis en geholpen door goede bedrijfscijfers van Google op donderdagavond na sluiting van de handel.
De Dow Jones Industrial Average steeg over de hele week gemeten het sterkst in zes maanden tijd, waarmee zowel de Dow als de Nasdaq voor 2011 in het zwart staan.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 1,5% hoger op 11.644,49 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 1,7% tot 1.224,58 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,8% won tot 2.667,85 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, waarbij beleggers vooral aangemoedigd werden door hoop over de G-20 bijeenkomst die tijdens het weekend plaatsvindt.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 1,0% hoger op 2.355,48. De DAX-30 steeg 0,9% tot 5.967,20, de CAC-40 sloot 1,0% hoger op 3.217,89 en de FTSE-100 won 1,2% op 5.466,26.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, vanwege een toegenomen risicobereidheid onder beleggers op de Europese aandelenmarkten.
Discussie over de participatie van de bankensector in het helpen van noodlijdende landen, heeft de schuldencrisis verergerd en Europa minder aantrekkelijk gemaakt voor investeerders, zegt bestuurslid Juergen Stark van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) in een pre-publicatie van een interview dat zaterdag in het NRC Weekend stond.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag uitgebroken tot boven de 300-puntengrens, positieve bedrijfsresultaten steunen het sentiment terwijl beleggers reikhalzend uitzien naar een mogelijke apotheose van de Europese schuldencrisis.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 1,7% hoger op 302,41 punten, de Midkap verloor 1,7% op 487,40 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 2,1% hoger op 424,23 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag hoger gesloten, vanwege hoop over zowel het economisch herstel in de VS en een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,57 hoger op $86,80, de hoogste prijs sinds 20 september. De stijging was de grootste sinds 6 oktober. De olieprijs is de afgelopen week $3,82, of 4,6%, gestegen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37840, om 23:00uur 1.38810, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1000.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57580, om 23:00uur 1.58260, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 700.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23760, om 23:00uur 1.23860, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 100.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.920, om 23:00uur 77.210, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 300.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87460, om 23:00uur 0.87710, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 250.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02120, om 23:00uur 1.01000, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1120.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3145 short term bottom extended further to as high as 1.3893 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4548 to 1.3145 at 1.4012, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, break of 1.3685 minor support will indicate that such rebound has likely finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3145 low.
In the bigger picture, as this point, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 2010 low of 1.1875 has completed at 1.4939. Fall from 1.4939 is viewed as resuming the whole corrective fall from 2007 high of 1.6039 ad should eventually take out 1.1875 support. However, the stronger than expected rebound from 1.3145 reduced our confidence on this scenario. Sustained trading back above 1.4 psychological level will argue that fall from 1.4939 is finished and the corrective nature in turns indicate that rise from 1.1875 is not over.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
Much volatility was seen in USD/JPY last week but the pair's rally attempt was limited at 77.48. Also, there is no follow through buying to help USD/JPY sustain above near term falling trend line yet. More choppy sideway trading could be seen between 76.11 and 77.48 initially this week. But we'll remain slightly bearish in USD/JPY as long as 77.48 resistance holds and favor an eventual downside break out through 75.94 support. Nevertheless, sustained break of 77.48 will argue that whole decline from 85.51 is possibly over and further rise would be seen back towards 80.23 resistance.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD rebounded further to as high as 1.0345 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for near term falling channel resistance (now at 1.0389) first. Break there should pave the way to 1.0764 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0104 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9865 support holds.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD drew strong support from 0.9404 despite a brief breach and the development retained bullish outlook in the long term. Whole up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and price actions from 1.1079 should merely be a consolidation pattern. Having said that, though, we'd be cautious on reverse signal as AUD/USD enters into 1.0764/1079 resistance zone and there would be another near term decline before consolidation from 1.1079 finishes. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and favor an eventual upside break out.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5271 short term bottom extended further to as high as 1.5817 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should continue towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103. On the downside, below 1.5666 minor support, though, will indicate that such rebound is likely finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5271 low first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161 and should be near to an end, if not finished at 1.6476. Near term outlook is quite mixed as the nature of the rebound from 1.5271 has many possibilities of roughly equal chance. But in any case, upside should be limited below 1.6618 resistance. Eventually, we'd expect a break of 1.4229 support to signal resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and that should send GBP/USD through 1.3503 (2008 low).
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF's fall last week confirmed short term topping at 0.9315. Initial bias remain son the downside this week and the pull back from 0.9315 should extend to 0.8647 and below. Though, we're expecting strong support above 0.8246 (50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9315 at 0.8190) to contain downside and bring resumption of rebound from 0.7065. On the upside, above 0.9039 minor resistance will argue that such pull back is finished and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9315 first.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. Such rebound would possibly extend to 0.9916/1.1730 resistance zone. But strong resistance should be seen there and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8246 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and should turn outlook bearish for a retest on this low.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher of Friday. Good retail sales data release and the hopes that the Euro zone would come up with a plan to solve its debt crisis supported the rise. The Dow (11644.49) was up 1.45% and the Nasdaq (2667.85) was up 1.82%. There is important Resistance in 11675-700 region for the Dow and if it holds, there could be chances of seeing a pull back in the coming days.
The Asian markets are trading higher today. Australia (4345.50) is up 1.79%, Nikkei (8881.42) is up 1.53%, Shanghai (2443.17) is up 0.49%, Taiwan (7417.37) is up 0.81% and Hong Kong (18862.93) is up 1.95%. The Sensex (17082.69, up 198.77 points) and Nifty (5132.30, up 54.45 points) had closed higher on Friday and could extend its gain today following the other markets. 17300 and 5200 are the important Resistance levels to be watched on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (87.20) witnessed a sharp rise on Friday following the good US Retail Sales data release. Important Resistance is seen in 88-90 region which could be tested while above the 87.00-86.80 Support region.
Gold (1681.60) is still not gaining upside momentum for a strong rise past 1700 although it is continuing to trade above 1650. Also it has important Resistance near 1720 and we see good chances of a fall to 1550 in the coming days.
Silver (32.23) is ranged and looks mixed. The bigger picture looks bearish with good Resistance at 33. Also we see a Wedge formation on the daily chart and there is a threat of Silver falling to 24-23 on the downside.
Copper (3.41) has risen above 3.40. But it has significant Resistance at 3.50, a failure to break above which can trigger a fresh fall in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3853) had come off from Friday's high of 1.3894. It has strong Resistance in the broad 1.3900-4000 and a fresh fall can be seen in the coming days from this Resistance region. Support is seen at 1.3750. Dollar-Yen (77.24) has risen above 77 and can test 77.80 on the upside with good Support in 76.70-60 region. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.04) has significant Resistance in 107.35-50 region and then at 108 and can fall to 105 while below this Resistance region this week. However, a strong break above 108 would open doors for further rise to 109.50-110.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8938) looks bearish for a fall to 0.8850-00 while below 0.9000. Immediate Support is seen at 0.8900. Cable (1.5808) has good Support at 1.5775 and then at 1.5700. While above 1.5700 we see good chances of a rise to 1.5900 or even 1.6000 this week. Aussie (1.0312) has risen sharply above parity last week. But it has important Resistance ahead in 1.0375-0400 region which could halt the current rally. A pull back to 1.0200-0100 can be seen from this Resistance region.
The Asian currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1145 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2645. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 49.02/03 on Friday and can dip below 49 to test its Support in 48.90-85 region today.
INTEREST RATES
Last weekend, G20 gave one week time to European leader to come up with a strong strategy to end the sovereign debt crisis in the region. German bunds yields increased between 4bps to 8bps across all tenors with far end increasing more, 2Y closed at 0.66% (+4bps) and 30Y at 2.94%(+8bps). Like German, US treasuries inched up, 5Y yields increased to 1.14% (+3bps), 10Y to 2.27 %( +8bps) and 30Y to 3.25% (+9bps) against stable 2Y yield at 0.27%.
In India, 10Y GOI yields spiked up, as expected, to 8.79% adding 7bps. The yield can move up to 9% by the month end if it increases further by another 10bps during the week.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 begint de week goed +1.39%. De AEX futures laten een vlakke opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat vlak op 1.38520.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 17 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Philips, cijfers KW3, 07.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, industriele productie, september, 15.15 uur
DINSDAG 18 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, verwachtingen analisten, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
De kredietbeoordelaar geeft als reden voor de verlaging de blootstelling van de Franse bank aan Griekenland en andere noodlijdende Zuid-Europese landen, alsmede de lastiger financieringsomstandigheden.
In een reactie stelt een woordvoerster van BNP Paribas, "BNP Paribas blijft een van de best gerangschikte banken ter wereld."
Naast de verlaging van BNP Paribas verlaagde S&P's de stand-alone kredietprofielen van Credit Agricole sa (ACA.FR) en Societe Generale sa (GLE.FR), en de niet-genoteerde banken BPCE en Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel.
De beoordeling voor deze vier banken wat betreft de lange termijn hield S&P's ongewijzigd op A+.
Wall Street is vrijdag hoger gesloten, met name vanwege beter dan verwachte detailhandelsverkopen in september, hoop over een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis en geholpen door goede bedrijfscijfers van Google op donderdagavond na sluiting van de handel.
De Dow Jones Industrial Average steeg over de hele week gemeten het sterkst in zes maanden tijd, waarmee zowel de Dow als de Nasdaq voor 2011 in het zwart staan.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 1,5% hoger op 11.644,49 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 1,7% tot 1.224,58 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,8% won tot 2.667,85 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, waarbij beleggers vooral aangemoedigd werden door hoop over de G-20 bijeenkomst die tijdens het weekend plaatsvindt.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 1,0% hoger op 2.355,48. De DAX-30 steeg 0,9% tot 5.967,20, de CAC-40 sloot 1,0% hoger op 3.217,89 en de FTSE-100 won 1,2% op 5.466,26.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, vanwege een toegenomen risicobereidheid onder beleggers op de Europese aandelenmarkten.
Discussie over de participatie van de bankensector in het helpen van noodlijdende landen, heeft de schuldencrisis verergerd en Europa minder aantrekkelijk gemaakt voor investeerders, zegt bestuurslid Juergen Stark van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) in een pre-publicatie van een interview dat zaterdag in het NRC Weekend stond.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag uitgebroken tot boven de 300-puntengrens, positieve bedrijfsresultaten steunen het sentiment terwijl beleggers reikhalzend uitzien naar een mogelijke apotheose van de Europese schuldencrisis.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 1,7% hoger op 302,41 punten, de Midkap verloor 1,7% op 487,40 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 2,1% hoger op 424,23 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag hoger gesloten, vanwege hoop over zowel het economisch herstel in de VS en een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,57 hoger op $86,80, de hoogste prijs sinds 20 september. De stijging was de grootste sinds 6 oktober. De olieprijs is de afgelopen week $3,82, of 4,6%, gestegen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37840, om 23:00uur 1.38810, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1000.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57580, om 23:00uur 1.58260, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 700.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23760, om 23:00uur 1.23860, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 100.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.920, om 23:00uur 77.210, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 300.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87460, om 23:00uur 0.87710, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 250.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02120, om 23:00uur 1.01000, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1120.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3145 short term bottom extended further to as high as 1.3893 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4548 to 1.3145 at 1.4012, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, break of 1.3685 minor support will indicate that such rebound has likely finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3145 low.
In the bigger picture, as this point, we're still favoring the case that whole rise from 2010 low of 1.1875 has completed at 1.4939. Fall from 1.4939 is viewed as resuming the whole corrective fall from 2007 high of 1.6039 ad should eventually take out 1.1875 support. However, the stronger than expected rebound from 1.3145 reduced our confidence on this scenario. Sustained trading back above 1.4 psychological level will argue that fall from 1.4939 is finished and the corrective nature in turns indicate that rise from 1.1875 is not over.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
Much volatility was seen in USD/JPY last week but the pair's rally attempt was limited at 77.48. Also, there is no follow through buying to help USD/JPY sustain above near term falling trend line yet. More choppy sideway trading could be seen between 76.11 and 77.48 initially this week. But we'll remain slightly bearish in USD/JPY as long as 77.48 resistance holds and favor an eventual downside break out through 75.94 support. Nevertheless, sustained break of 77.48 will argue that whole decline from 85.51 is possibly over and further rise would be seen back towards 80.23 resistance.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD rebounded further to as high as 1.0345 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for near term falling channel resistance (now at 1.0389) first. Break there should pave the way to 1.0764 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0104 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 0.9865 support holds.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD drew strong support from 0.9404 despite a brief breach and the development retained bullish outlook in the long term. Whole up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and price actions from 1.1079 should merely be a consolidation pattern. Having said that, though, we'd be cautious on reverse signal as AUD/USD enters into 1.0764/1079 resistance zone and there would be another near term decline before consolidation from 1.1079 finishes. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and favor an eventual upside break out.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. While AUD/USD might be reversing in medium term, there is no signal of long term topping yet. We'd stay bullish as long as 0.9404 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5271 short term bottom extended further to as high as 1.5817 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should continue towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103. On the downside, below 1.5666 minor support, though, will indicate that such rebound is likely finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5271 low first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161 and should be near to an end, if not finished at 1.6476. Near term outlook is quite mixed as the nature of the rebound from 1.5271 has many possibilities of roughly equal chance. But in any case, upside should be limited below 1.6618 resistance. Eventually, we'd expect a break of 1.4229 support to signal resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and that should send GBP/USD through 1.3503 (2008 low).
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF's fall last week confirmed short term topping at 0.9315. Initial bias remain son the downside this week and the pull back from 0.9315 should extend to 0.8647 and below. Though, we're expecting strong support above 0.8246 (50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9315 at 0.8190) to contain downside and bring resumption of rebound from 0.7065. On the upside, above 0.9039 minor resistance will argue that such pull back is finished and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9315 first.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. Such rebound would possibly extend to 0.9916/1.1730 resistance zone. But strong resistance should be seen there and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8246 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and should turn outlook bearish for a retest on this low.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher of Friday. Good retail sales data release and the hopes that the Euro zone would come up with a plan to solve its debt crisis supported the rise. The Dow (11644.49) was up 1.45% and the Nasdaq (2667.85) was up 1.82%. There is important Resistance in 11675-700 region for the Dow and if it holds, there could be chances of seeing a pull back in the coming days.
The Asian markets are trading higher today. Australia (4345.50) is up 1.79%, Nikkei (8881.42) is up 1.53%, Shanghai (2443.17) is up 0.49%, Taiwan (7417.37) is up 0.81% and Hong Kong (18862.93) is up 1.95%. The Sensex (17082.69, up 198.77 points) and Nifty (5132.30, up 54.45 points) had closed higher on Friday and could extend its gain today following the other markets. 17300 and 5200 are the important Resistance levels to be watched on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (87.20) witnessed a sharp rise on Friday following the good US Retail Sales data release. Important Resistance is seen in 88-90 region which could be tested while above the 87.00-86.80 Support region.
Gold (1681.60) is still not gaining upside momentum for a strong rise past 1700 although it is continuing to trade above 1650. Also it has important Resistance near 1720 and we see good chances of a fall to 1550 in the coming days.
Silver (32.23) is ranged and looks mixed. The bigger picture looks bearish with good Resistance at 33. Also we see a Wedge formation on the daily chart and there is a threat of Silver falling to 24-23 on the downside.
Copper (3.41) has risen above 3.40. But it has significant Resistance at 3.50, a failure to break above which can trigger a fresh fall in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3853) had come off from Friday's high of 1.3894. It has strong Resistance in the broad 1.3900-4000 and a fresh fall can be seen in the coming days from this Resistance region. Support is seen at 1.3750. Dollar-Yen (77.24) has risen above 77 and can test 77.80 on the upside with good Support in 76.70-60 region. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.04) has significant Resistance in 107.35-50 region and then at 108 and can fall to 105 while below this Resistance region this week. However, a strong break above 108 would open doors for further rise to 109.50-110.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8938) looks bearish for a fall to 0.8850-00 while below 0.9000. Immediate Support is seen at 0.8900. Cable (1.5808) has good Support at 1.5775 and then at 1.5700. While above 1.5700 we see good chances of a rise to 1.5900 or even 1.6000 this week. Aussie (1.0312) has risen sharply above parity last week. But it has important Resistance ahead in 1.0375-0400 region which could halt the current rally. A pull back to 1.0200-0100 can be seen from this Resistance region.
The Asian currencies are trading strong. The Korean-Won is trading near 1145 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2645. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 49.02/03 on Friday and can dip below 49 to test its Support in 48.90-85 region today.
INTEREST RATES
Last weekend, G20 gave one week time to European leader to come up with a strong strategy to end the sovereign debt crisis in the region. German bunds yields increased between 4bps to 8bps across all tenors with far end increasing more, 2Y closed at 0.66% (+4bps) and 30Y at 2.94%(+8bps). Like German, US treasuries inched up, 5Y yields increased to 1.14% (+3bps), 10Y to 2.27 %( +8bps) and 30Y to 3.25% (+9bps) against stable 2Y yield at 0.27%.
In India, 10Y GOI yields spiked up, as expected, to 8.79% adding 7bps. The yield can move up to 9% by the month end if it increases further by another 10bps during the week.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 begint de week goed +1.39%. De AEX futures laten een vlakke opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat vlak op 1.38520.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 17 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Philips, cijfers KW3, 07.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, industriele productie, september, 15.15 uur
DINSDAG 18 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, verwachtingen analisten, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4216
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 18-10-2011
Wall Street is gisteren lager gesloten, door nieuwe zorgen over een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis. Volgens handelaren werden de dalingen versterkt door relatief lage handelsvolumes. De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,1% lager op 11.397,00 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 1,9% tot 1.200,86 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 2,0% afstond tot 2.614,92 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren met verlies gesloten. Hoop dat volgend weekend een oplossing wordt gevonden voor de eurocrisis vervaagde in de loop van de dag.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 1,7% lager op 2.315,89. De DAX-30 daalde 1,8% tot 5.859,43, de CAC-40 sloot 1,6% lager op 3.166,06 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,5% op 5.436,70.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn maandag hoger gesloten. De leningen begonnen de dag zwak, maar gingen in de middaghandel flink omhoog, nadat eerder optimisme over een mogelijke oplossing voor de eurocrisis teniet werd gedaan door opmerkingen van de Duitse minister van Financien.
Ook de Amsterdamse beurs is maandag lager gesloten, nadat aanvankelijk enthousiasme bij beleggers over de resultaten van de G-20-top in het weekend wegebde, na waarschuwende woorden uit Duitsland.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 1,05% lager op 299,24 punten. De Midkap zakte 1,7% naar 479,01 punten. De Smallcap-index eindigde 0,4% hoger op 425,85 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, door nieuwe bezorgdheid over de schuldproblemen van Europese lidstaten.
Eerdere winsten werden ingeleverd, toen onzekerheid ontstond over het bereiken van een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
BRUSSEL (AFN) - De Europese Commissie heeft de overname van Dexia Bank door de Belgische staat voorlopig goedgekeurd. Europa gaat nog een diepgaand onderzoek uitvoeren naar de nationalisatie van de bank, de tweede bank van België.
Dat maakte de Europese Commissie, het dagelijks bestuur van de EU, gisterenavond bekend. De Belgische overheid kocht Dexia Bank België onlangs voor 4 miljard euro van de internationale Dexia Groep. De commissie erkent dat die stap noodzakelijk was voor de financiële stabiliteit, maar moet nog uitmaken of de overname in overeenstemming is met de Europese regels.
Postal union hires big guns to save service
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- One of the big postal worker unions has hired new help to save the U.S. Postal Service -- Ron Bloom, one of the advisors who helped steer the U.S. automakers out of bankruptcy.
The National Association of Letter Carriers said Sunday that it had hired former Obama administration official Ron Bloom as well as Wall Street bank Lazard Group to help come up with ideas to help save the service and, with it, members' jobs.
The Postal Service has until Nov. 18 to make a $5.5 billion payment that's due to its retiree health care fund. But the independent agency doesn't have that kind of money, especially given the drop off in mail volume and foot traffic in recent years.
The letter carrier union said they hired Bloom and the Lazard Group to help them come up with a "pro-growth" business plan that saves the postal service while avoiding drastic cuts.
The postal service predicament is familiar to Bloom, who is largely credited for his role in helping bringing General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler out of bankruptcy and back to solid ground. Bloom most recently served as a White House adviser on manufacturing policy, a post he stepped away from in late August.
"We are confident that Lazard and Mr. Bloom -- both of whom have extensive experience helping to revitalize numerous large and complex business enterprises around the world --can provide valuable assistance to all stakeholders who share our commitment to maintaining and growing this vital national resource," said Fredric V. Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, which represents 280,000 postal workers.
The Postal Service's potential default has spurred the White House and lawmakers to draft competing bills to revamp the postal service. The proposals run the gamut from ending Saturday service to hiking stamp prices and even laying off or buying out postal workers.
They've also spawned a big public reaction -- neighbors packing public hearings to oppose closure of local post offices and union rallies of lawmakers' offices to protest layoffs.
The hiring of Bloom came days after unions were dealt a blow in their effort to protect workers.
A watchdog agency, the Government Accounting Office, released a report last week that disagreed with two other agencies who say the postal workers' pension fund is vastly overfunded and can be tapped to make the health care retiree fund payment and pull the postal service out of its financial troubles.
The unions want to dip into the pension fund. They also want to get rid of the mandate that the postal service prefund all future health care retiree benefits -- scrubbing the $5.5 billion payment due in November.
But, the watchdog report warned that dipping into the pension fund could put future taxpayers on the hook for anywhere between $56 billion to $85 billion.
Republicans pounced on the watchdog report last week, using it as fodder to gain support for their own legislation.
"To save the Postal Service, we must enact meaningful and immediate reform so we can maintain service to the American people and return it to financial solvency," said Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican who chairs the House Oversight panel.
That committee approved Issa's bill to save the Postal Service. The bill would end Saturday service, ban the post office from promising no layoffs to new employees, and create panels -- resembling the ones convened to close military bases -- to study and recommend which post offices should be closed
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38550, om 23:00uur 1.38790, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 240.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87730, om 23:00uur 0.87255, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 500.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23830, om 23:00uur 1.23520, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57940, om 23:00uur 1.57500, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 450.
USD/JPY : 7uur 77.110, om 23:00uur 76.775, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.00820, om 23:00uur 1.02340, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1300.
Mid-Day Report: Euro and Risk Retreat as Germany Temper Expectation on Summit
Euro and risk appetite general was hit by comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble today. Bank recapitalization and solution to the European debt crisis have been support risk rebound since last week and markets are hopeful that someone solid will be delivered during this week's EU summit. G20 also urged EU to outline a pan by EU summit on October 23 to "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan." However Schaeuble played down markets expectation and said that won't be a "definitive solution this weekend". Also, Chancellor Merkel's Spokesman Seibert said that the "dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won't be able to be fulfilled."
Data from US was also discouraging. Empire Stat manufacturing index improved just slightly to -8.5 in October, comparing to expectation of -4. Industrial production rose 0.2% in September. Canadian international securities transactions dropped to CAD 7.92b in August. UK rightmove hour price rose 2.8% mom in October. Japan industrial production rose 0.6% mom in September.
The Centre for Economic and Business research (CEBR) slashed UK's growth forecast to 0.6% in 2011 and 0.7% in 2012. The organization noted that European debt crisis "threatens to severely curb the potential for export demand and business investment to drive the U.K. economy in the short term--something which is necessary to offset the negative impact of government spending cuts and weak consumer demand following the decade of debt-fuelled spending." And, "a Lehmans-style financial crisis in the eurozone now looks highly likely". Also the CEBR expects BoE to rise the asset purchase program to GBP 200b by end of 2012 and in the worst case, the size could be pushed to as high as GBP 400b.
Dollar index recovered strongly after dipping to 76.44 earlier today and is back above 77. Note that while another fall cannot be ruled out yet, we'd expect loss of momentum on next decline. 76.06 support should hold and bring rebound. A break of 77.928 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 79.838 resistance.
Markets Steady, But Dollar Struggles to Rebound
Sentiments are in Asia today as markets catch up with Friday's advance in US equities and opened broadly higher. Statement from G20 affirmed that world leaders are determined to solve the European debt crisis from spreading as a deadline is explicitly set for Europe to deliver a plan. But the boost the markets is minimal as European leaders are known to dissent among each other and the plan is still far from being finalized. Dollar is trying to recover but lacks momentum. Canadian dollar is the relatively stronger currency in an otherwise dull market as crude oil is trying to extend recent gains.
Finance leaders announced after the G-20 meeting that European policymakers will have an 'emergency summit' next weekend for formulating a durable and sustainable solution to the sovereign debt crisis in the 17-nation region. As stated in the communiqué, the world economy is facing 'heightened tensions and significant downside risks'. Meanwhile, in rare direct languages, G20 urged EU to outline a pan by EU summit on October 23 to "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan."Also, EU is urged to "to maximize the impact of the EFSF (bailout fund) in order to address contagion". While no details of the plan were given, it's anticipated to include a recapitalization of European banks, write-downs of Greek debt to as much as 50% and further expansion of the EFSF.
The Centre for Economic and Business research (CEBR) slashed UK's growth forecast to 0.6% in 2011 and 0.7% in 2012. The organization noted that European debt crisis "threatens to severely curb the potential for export demand and business investment to drive the U.K. economy in the short term--something which is necessary to offset the negative impact of government spending cuts and weak consumer demand following the decade of debt-fuelled spending." And, "a Lehmans-style financial crisis in the eurozone now looks highly likely". Also the CEBR expects BoE to rise the asset purchase program to GBP 200b by end of 2012 and in the worst case, the size could be pushed to as high as GBP 400b.
On the data front, UK rightmove hour price rose 2.8% mom in October. Japan industrial production rose 0.6% mom in September. Main focus ahead will be on US empire statement manufacturing index, which is expected to improve to -4 in October while industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in September. Canadian international securities transaction and BoC business outlook survey will also be released.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3373; (P) 1.3455; (R1) 1.3498.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside with 1.3557 minor resistance intact. Rebound from 1.3022 should have completed at 1.4086 already and current fall from there is heading back to retest 1.3022 support. On the upside, above 1.3557 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.3775 resistance and bring another fall.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2926 are treated as a medium term consolidation pattern, which is still in progress. Such pattern might extend further in range of 1.2926 and 1.4341. Nevertheless, we'll stay bearish as long as 1.4341 resistance holds and favor an eventual downside breakout. Sustained trading below 1.2926 should pave the way to 1.2 psychological level next.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The comments from the German Finance minister that the Euro zone debt crisis might not find a quick solution triggered a sharp fall in the equity markets all over yesterday. The Dow (11397) was down 2.13% and the Nasdaq (2614.92) was down 1.98%. The Dow can fall further to 11200-180 while below 11500. In the bigger picture 11675-11700 is an important Resistance for the Dow and while below this Resistance a revisit of 10650-00 looks more likely in the coming days/weeks.
The Asian markets are trading in the red following the sharp fall in the US markets yesterday. Australia (4253.10) is down 1.95%, Nikkei (8742.57) was down 1.54%, Shanghai (2407.77) is down 1.34%, Hong Kong (18218.38) is down 3.47% and Taiwan (7340.43) is down 1.62%. The Sensex (17025.09, down 57.60 points) and Nifty (5118.25, down 14.05 points) had closed lower yesterday and could fall further today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Good pull back in the Commodities market yesterday as the Dollar strengthened following the comments from the German Finance minister that a quick solution for the Euro zone debt crisis might not be seen.
Nymex Crude (86.17) fell sharply from its high of 88.18. The 88-90 Resistance region is holding well and is keeping up our broader bearish outlook intact for a fall to 80 or even 70 in the coming weeks.
Gold (1673.90) has come off from its high of 1696.80. With lack of upside momentum and also with a "Rising Wedge" bearish pattern on the daily chart, Gold looks to be gearing up for a fall to 1570-50 going forward.
Silver (31.78) is still finding good Resistance near 33 and has come off from its high of 32.67. A Wedge formation is seen on the Silver charts as well similar to that of Gold. Having said this Silver can fall to 29 and then a further break below 29 can take it down to 23.
Copper (3.32) has come off sharply from its high of 3.46. Technically the Resistance in 3.40-50 region that we have been mentioning for some time has held well. While this Resistance region holds, Copper could see a fresh fall to 3.00-2.80 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (77.05) rallied strongly yesterday as the Euro (1.3750) lost ground after Germany de-illusioned the market about the prospects of a speedy resolution to the European debt crisis, saying a solution might not emerge till next year. The Dollar Index has good Support now at 76.40 and 75.90. The Euro has Resistance at 1.3915-50 and at 1.4000.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8963) has bounced from yesterday's low near 0.8881. Looks bullish medium term now. Dollar-Yen (76.83) has been volatile for the last few days gyrating between 76.60 on the downside and 77.45 on the upside. Overall, though, the market is still ranged between 76.50 and 77.50 and could remain ranged for some more days.
The Pound (1.5780) has fared a little better than the Euro since yesterday with the EURGBP (0.8723) coming off a bit from the high of 0.8800. But, the Pound could weaken in the coming days if it is unable to rise past 1.5845. The Aussie (1.0184) has come off sharply from yesterday's high near 1.0370 as it was unable to climb past the 200-day MA at 1.0380. A dip towards 1.01 looks possible now.
In Asia, the CNH quotes near 6.4373 against the USD, which means it is relatively weak in our reckoning. The USDSGD (1.2686) had bounced from its low of 1.2567 yesterday. We now have to watch 1.2600 carefully now. Dollar-Rupee (48.94) has Resistance at 49.10 today.
INTEREST RATES
Germany has scraped the proposal for quick solution to the sovereign debt crisis in Euro area. The decision moved investors towards safer assets, German bunds rallied compressing the yields, 2Y yields fell to 0.58% (-8bps). 5Y to 1.27% (-11bps), 10Y to 2.10%(-10bps) and 30Y to 2.84% (-9bps).
US treasuries followed German bunds, yields dropped between 8bps to 10bps releasing last week gain, 5Y plummeted to 1.06%(-8bps) and 30Y to 3.15% (10bps).
We see some resistance to coming up at 15-20bps on 5Y and 10Y weekly yields on US treasuries. Another 20-25bps movement in US treasuries yields on either side can give direction to further medium term movements.
In India, 10Y GOI yields remained stable at 8.80% holding the bullish sentiment. As indicated in our previous briefings, yield can move up to 9% by the month end if it increases further by another 10bps during the week.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 16:00uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat lager op -1.42%. Ook de AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat leger op 1.37818 tov gisteren.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 18 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, verwachtingen analisten, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren met verlies gesloten. Hoop dat volgend weekend een oplossing wordt gevonden voor de eurocrisis vervaagde in de loop van de dag.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 1,7% lager op 2.315,89. De DAX-30 daalde 1,8% tot 5.859,43, de CAC-40 sloot 1,6% lager op 3.166,06 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,5% op 5.436,70.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn maandag hoger gesloten. De leningen begonnen de dag zwak, maar gingen in de middaghandel flink omhoog, nadat eerder optimisme over een mogelijke oplossing voor de eurocrisis teniet werd gedaan door opmerkingen van de Duitse minister van Financien.
Ook de Amsterdamse beurs is maandag lager gesloten, nadat aanvankelijk enthousiasme bij beleggers over de resultaten van de G-20-top in het weekend wegebde, na waarschuwende woorden uit Duitsland.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 1,05% lager op 299,24 punten. De Midkap zakte 1,7% naar 479,01 punten. De Smallcap-index eindigde 0,4% hoger op 425,85 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, door nieuwe bezorgdheid over de schuldproblemen van Europese lidstaten.
Eerdere winsten werden ingeleverd, toen onzekerheid ontstond over het bereiken van een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
BRUSSEL (AFN) - De Europese Commissie heeft de overname van Dexia Bank door de Belgische staat voorlopig goedgekeurd. Europa gaat nog een diepgaand onderzoek uitvoeren naar de nationalisatie van de bank, de tweede bank van België.
Dat maakte de Europese Commissie, het dagelijks bestuur van de EU, gisterenavond bekend. De Belgische overheid kocht Dexia Bank België onlangs voor 4 miljard euro van de internationale Dexia Groep. De commissie erkent dat die stap noodzakelijk was voor de financiële stabiliteit, maar moet nog uitmaken of de overname in overeenstemming is met de Europese regels.
Postal union hires big guns to save service
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- One of the big postal worker unions has hired new help to save the U.S. Postal Service -- Ron Bloom, one of the advisors who helped steer the U.S. automakers out of bankruptcy.
The National Association of Letter Carriers said Sunday that it had hired former Obama administration official Ron Bloom as well as Wall Street bank Lazard Group to help come up with ideas to help save the service and, with it, members' jobs.
The Postal Service has until Nov. 18 to make a $5.5 billion payment that's due to its retiree health care fund. But the independent agency doesn't have that kind of money, especially given the drop off in mail volume and foot traffic in recent years.
The letter carrier union said they hired Bloom and the Lazard Group to help them come up with a "pro-growth" business plan that saves the postal service while avoiding drastic cuts.
The postal service predicament is familiar to Bloom, who is largely credited for his role in helping bringing General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler out of bankruptcy and back to solid ground. Bloom most recently served as a White House adviser on manufacturing policy, a post he stepped away from in late August.
"We are confident that Lazard and Mr. Bloom -- both of whom have extensive experience helping to revitalize numerous large and complex business enterprises around the world --can provide valuable assistance to all stakeholders who share our commitment to maintaining and growing this vital national resource," said Fredric V. Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, which represents 280,000 postal workers.
The Postal Service's potential default has spurred the White House and lawmakers to draft competing bills to revamp the postal service. The proposals run the gamut from ending Saturday service to hiking stamp prices and even laying off or buying out postal workers.
They've also spawned a big public reaction -- neighbors packing public hearings to oppose closure of local post offices and union rallies of lawmakers' offices to protest layoffs.
The hiring of Bloom came days after unions were dealt a blow in their effort to protect workers.
A watchdog agency, the Government Accounting Office, released a report last week that disagreed with two other agencies who say the postal workers' pension fund is vastly overfunded and can be tapped to make the health care retiree fund payment and pull the postal service out of its financial troubles.
The unions want to dip into the pension fund. They also want to get rid of the mandate that the postal service prefund all future health care retiree benefits -- scrubbing the $5.5 billion payment due in November.
But, the watchdog report warned that dipping into the pension fund could put future taxpayers on the hook for anywhere between $56 billion to $85 billion.
Republicans pounced on the watchdog report last week, using it as fodder to gain support for their own legislation.
"To save the Postal Service, we must enact meaningful and immediate reform so we can maintain service to the American people and return it to financial solvency," said Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican who chairs the House Oversight panel.
That committee approved Issa's bill to save the Postal Service. The bill would end Saturday service, ban the post office from promising no layoffs to new employees, and create panels -- resembling the ones convened to close military bases -- to study and recommend which post offices should be closed
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38550, om 23:00uur 1.38790, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 240.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87730, om 23:00uur 0.87255, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 500.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23830, om 23:00uur 1.23520, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57940, om 23:00uur 1.57500, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 450.
USD/JPY : 7uur 77.110, om 23:00uur 76.775, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 300.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.00820, om 23:00uur 1.02340, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1300.
Mid-Day Report: Euro and Risk Retreat as Germany Temper Expectation on Summit
Euro and risk appetite general was hit by comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble today. Bank recapitalization and solution to the European debt crisis have been support risk rebound since last week and markets are hopeful that someone solid will be delivered during this week's EU summit. G20 also urged EU to outline a pan by EU summit on October 23 to "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan." However Schaeuble played down markets expectation and said that won't be a "definitive solution this weekend". Also, Chancellor Merkel's Spokesman Seibert said that the "dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won't be able to be fulfilled."
Data from US was also discouraging. Empire Stat manufacturing index improved just slightly to -8.5 in October, comparing to expectation of -4. Industrial production rose 0.2% in September. Canadian international securities transactions dropped to CAD 7.92b in August. UK rightmove hour price rose 2.8% mom in October. Japan industrial production rose 0.6% mom in September.
The Centre for Economic and Business research (CEBR) slashed UK's growth forecast to 0.6% in 2011 and 0.7% in 2012. The organization noted that European debt crisis "threatens to severely curb the potential for export demand and business investment to drive the U.K. economy in the short term--something which is necessary to offset the negative impact of government spending cuts and weak consumer demand following the decade of debt-fuelled spending." And, "a Lehmans-style financial crisis in the eurozone now looks highly likely". Also the CEBR expects BoE to rise the asset purchase program to GBP 200b by end of 2012 and in the worst case, the size could be pushed to as high as GBP 400b.
Dollar index recovered strongly after dipping to 76.44 earlier today and is back above 77. Note that while another fall cannot be ruled out yet, we'd expect loss of momentum on next decline. 76.06 support should hold and bring rebound. A break of 77.928 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 79.838 resistance.
Markets Steady, But Dollar Struggles to Rebound
Sentiments are in Asia today as markets catch up with Friday's advance in US equities and opened broadly higher. Statement from G20 affirmed that world leaders are determined to solve the European debt crisis from spreading as a deadline is explicitly set for Europe to deliver a plan. But the boost the markets is minimal as European leaders are known to dissent among each other and the plan is still far from being finalized. Dollar is trying to recover but lacks momentum. Canadian dollar is the relatively stronger currency in an otherwise dull market as crude oil is trying to extend recent gains.
Finance leaders announced after the G-20 meeting that European policymakers will have an 'emergency summit' next weekend for formulating a durable and sustainable solution to the sovereign debt crisis in the 17-nation region. As stated in the communiqué, the world economy is facing 'heightened tensions and significant downside risks'. Meanwhile, in rare direct languages, G20 urged EU to outline a pan by EU summit on October 23 to "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan."Also, EU is urged to "to maximize the impact of the EFSF (bailout fund) in order to address contagion". While no details of the plan were given, it's anticipated to include a recapitalization of European banks, write-downs of Greek debt to as much as 50% and further expansion of the EFSF.
The Centre for Economic and Business research (CEBR) slashed UK's growth forecast to 0.6% in 2011 and 0.7% in 2012. The organization noted that European debt crisis "threatens to severely curb the potential for export demand and business investment to drive the U.K. economy in the short term--something which is necessary to offset the negative impact of government spending cuts and weak consumer demand following the decade of debt-fuelled spending." And, "a Lehmans-style financial crisis in the eurozone now looks highly likely". Also the CEBR expects BoE to rise the asset purchase program to GBP 200b by end of 2012 and in the worst case, the size could be pushed to as high as GBP 400b.
On the data front, UK rightmove hour price rose 2.8% mom in October. Japan industrial production rose 0.6% mom in September. Main focus ahead will be on US empire statement manufacturing index, which is expected to improve to -4 in October while industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in September. Canadian international securities transaction and BoC business outlook survey will also be released.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3373; (P) 1.3455; (R1) 1.3498.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside with 1.3557 minor resistance intact. Rebound from 1.3022 should have completed at 1.4086 already and current fall from there is heading back to retest 1.3022 support. On the upside, above 1.3557 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.3775 resistance and bring another fall.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2926 are treated as a medium term consolidation pattern, which is still in progress. Such pattern might extend further in range of 1.2926 and 1.4341. Nevertheless, we'll stay bearish as long as 1.4341 resistance holds and favor an eventual downside breakout. Sustained trading below 1.2926 should pave the way to 1.2 psychological level next.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The comments from the German Finance minister that the Euro zone debt crisis might not find a quick solution triggered a sharp fall in the equity markets all over yesterday. The Dow (11397) was down 2.13% and the Nasdaq (2614.92) was down 1.98%. The Dow can fall further to 11200-180 while below 11500. In the bigger picture 11675-11700 is an important Resistance for the Dow and while below this Resistance a revisit of 10650-00 looks more likely in the coming days/weeks.
The Asian markets are trading in the red following the sharp fall in the US markets yesterday. Australia (4253.10) is down 1.95%, Nikkei (8742.57) was down 1.54%, Shanghai (2407.77) is down 1.34%, Hong Kong (18218.38) is down 3.47% and Taiwan (7340.43) is down 1.62%. The Sensex (17025.09, down 57.60 points) and Nifty (5118.25, down 14.05 points) had closed lower yesterday and could fall further today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Good pull back in the Commodities market yesterday as the Dollar strengthened following the comments from the German Finance minister that a quick solution for the Euro zone debt crisis might not be seen.
Nymex Crude (86.17) fell sharply from its high of 88.18. The 88-90 Resistance region is holding well and is keeping up our broader bearish outlook intact for a fall to 80 or even 70 in the coming weeks.
Gold (1673.90) has come off from its high of 1696.80. With lack of upside momentum and also with a "Rising Wedge" bearish pattern on the daily chart, Gold looks to be gearing up for a fall to 1570-50 going forward.
Silver (31.78) is still finding good Resistance near 33 and has come off from its high of 32.67. A Wedge formation is seen on the Silver charts as well similar to that of Gold. Having said this Silver can fall to 29 and then a further break below 29 can take it down to 23.
Copper (3.32) has come off sharply from its high of 3.46. Technically the Resistance in 3.40-50 region that we have been mentioning for some time has held well. While this Resistance region holds, Copper could see a fresh fall to 3.00-2.80 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (77.05) rallied strongly yesterday as the Euro (1.3750) lost ground after Germany de-illusioned the market about the prospects of a speedy resolution to the European debt crisis, saying a solution might not emerge till next year. The Dollar Index has good Support now at 76.40 and 75.90. The Euro has Resistance at 1.3915-50 and at 1.4000.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8963) has bounced from yesterday's low near 0.8881. Looks bullish medium term now. Dollar-Yen (76.83) has been volatile for the last few days gyrating between 76.60 on the downside and 77.45 on the upside. Overall, though, the market is still ranged between 76.50 and 77.50 and could remain ranged for some more days.
The Pound (1.5780) has fared a little better than the Euro since yesterday with the EURGBP (0.8723) coming off a bit from the high of 0.8800. But, the Pound could weaken in the coming days if it is unable to rise past 1.5845. The Aussie (1.0184) has come off sharply from yesterday's high near 1.0370 as it was unable to climb past the 200-day MA at 1.0380. A dip towards 1.01 looks possible now.
In Asia, the CNH quotes near 6.4373 against the USD, which means it is relatively weak in our reckoning. The USDSGD (1.2686) had bounced from its low of 1.2567 yesterday. We now have to watch 1.2600 carefully now. Dollar-Rupee (48.94) has Resistance at 49.10 today.
INTEREST RATES
Germany has scraped the proposal for quick solution to the sovereign debt crisis in Euro area. The decision moved investors towards safer assets, German bunds rallied compressing the yields, 2Y yields fell to 0.58% (-8bps). 5Y to 1.27% (-11bps), 10Y to 2.10%(-10bps) and 30Y to 2.84% (-9bps).
US treasuries followed German bunds, yields dropped between 8bps to 10bps releasing last week gain, 5Y plummeted to 1.06%(-8bps) and 30Y to 3.15% (10bps).
We see some resistance to coming up at 15-20bps on 5Y and 10Y weekly yields on US treasuries. Another 20-25bps movement in US treasuries yields on either side can give direction to further medium term movements.
In India, 10Y GOI yields remained stable at 8.80% holding the bullish sentiment. As indicated in our previous briefings, yield can move up to 9% by the month end if it increases further by another 10bps during the week.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 16:00uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 staat lager op -1.42%. Ook de AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. De Eur/Usd staat leger op 1.37818 tov gisteren.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 18 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, verwachtingen analisten, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 18 oktober: Spaanse en Griekse veilingen T-bills.
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4234
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 19-10-2011
Het Europees Parlement en de Europese lidstaten hebben gisterenavond een akkoord bereikt over de aanpak van speculatie tegen landen. Beleggers mogen voortaan alleen in kredietderivaten handelen als de bijbehorende staatsobligaties ook in bezit hebben.
In de deal zit echter een belangrijke ontsnappingsclausule: als een land vreest dat deze inperking de verhandelbaar van zijn staatspapier verkleint, mag hij zich onttrekken aan de regelgeving via een zogeheten opt-out.
Duitsland en Frankrijk lopen alle lange tijd te hoop tegen speculatie met kredietderivaten. Dat is een verzekering voor het geval een land failliet gaat. Hiermee kunnen beleggers risico's afdekken op staatsobligaties. Duitsland en Frankrijk hebben er grote problemen mee als beleggers handelen in die derivaten zonder dat ze staatsobligaties bezitten. Daarmee zouden ze een financieel belang hebben bij het bankroet van een land. Daarom wilden beide landen deze ongedekte handel in kredietderivaten verbieden.
Liquiditeit
Ook het Europees Parlement zat op die lijn, maar veel lidstaten vonden dit veel te ver gaan. Vooral kleinere landen zijn bang dat hun staatsobligaties minder makkelijk te verhandelen is. Speculanten zorgen immers ook voor liquiditeit in de markt.
'Deze uitgebalanceerde maatregelen zullen ervoor zorgen dat kredietderivaten worden gebruikt waarvoor ze bedoeld waren, namelijk het indekken tegen het risico van een faillissement van een land, zonder dat een goed functioneren van de staatsobligatiemarkt in gevaar komt', aldus eurocommissaris Michel Barnier van interne markt in een verklaring dinsdagavond.
De Federal Reserve zou mogelijk zijn belangrijkste rentetarief moeten verhogen in het geval de centrale bank een potentieel gevaar constateert voor de financiele stabiliteit, meldt Fed-voorzitter Ben Bernanke gisteren.
Veel Fed-functionarissen redeneerden voor het uitbreken van de financiele crisis dat het inzetten van het rentetarief om de 'asset bubble' door te prikken te drastisch zou zijn. analisten redeneren nu dat de Fed nieuwe toezichthoudende bevoegdheden zou kunnen instellen om risico's, zoals excessieve kredietgroei, te beteugelen.
Bernanke stelt echter dat de effectiviteit van dergelijke regelgeving echter niet bewezen is. "De kans dat het monetaire beleid kan worden gebruikt om direct de financiele doelstellingen tot stabiliteit te ondersteunen, in ieder geval in de marge, mogen we echter niet uitsluiten", aldus Bernanke.
De centrale bankier meldt tevens dat de Fed zal stoppen met het opkopen van activa indien de economische omstandigheden weer genormaliseerd zijn, maar nieuwe vormen van begeleiding ter stimulering van de economie zal gebruiken en andere manieren van communicatie zal toepassen om het door de Fed gewenste beleid uit te dragen.
Kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's heeft de kredietwaardigheid van 24 Italiaanse banken verlaagd. Het gaat onder meer om de derde bank van het land en de oudste bank ter wereld, Banca Monte Dei Paschi Siena. Ook de vijfde bank van Italië, UBI Banca, werd afgewaardeerd.S&P zegt tot het besluit te zijn gekomen vanwege hernieuwde spanningen in de eurozone, met name in Italië, en vanwege slechte groeivooruitzichten voor de Italiaanse economie. De kredietbeoordelaar denkt ook dat het de komende tijd duurder wordt voor de banken om kapitaal aan te trekken.De verwachting is dat de winstgevendheid van de banken de komende jaren daalt. Als de Italiaanse regering geen maatregelen neemt om de economische groei te stimuleren zullen de omstandigheden voor de banken lange tijd slecht blijven, waarschuwt S&P.Een lagere kredietbeoordeling betekent dat het voor de banken duurder kan worden om geld te lenen. De twee grootste banken in Italië, Intesa Sanpaolo en Unicredit, werden ondanks de slechte vooruitzichten niet afgewaardeerd.
Wall Street sluit hoger op nieuws opgepompt EFSF
De S&P 500 steeg 2 procent nadat een Britse krant meldde dat Berlijn en Parijs akkoord zijn met het inzetten van een opgepompt noodfonds van 2 biljoen euro om de Europese schuldencrisis te verhelpen.
Wall Street is gisteren met stevige winsten gesloten op berichtgeving dat Frankrijk en Duitsland akkoord zijn over een dit weekend te presenteren plan dat de Europese schuldencrisis moet oplossen. De Britse krant The Guardian schreef gisterenavond op basis van uitspraken van Europese diplomaten dat Berlijn en Parijs de capaciteit van 440 miljard euro van het noodfonds EFSF willen oppompen tot 2 biljoen euro.
Dankzij het nieuws kwam Wall Street stevig in het groen en steeg de S&P 500 2,0 procent naar 1.225,38 punten. De Dow Jones eindigde 1,6 procent hoger op 11.577,05 punten en de Nasdaq won 1,6 procent op 2.657,43 punten. De euro/dollar herstelde van een intraday low op 1,365 naar 1,382. The Guardian schreef verder dat Berlijn en Parijs akkoord zijn met het herkapitaliseren van Europese banken. Het zou volgens de krant eerder 100 dan 200 miljard euro kosten om de Tier 1 kernkapitaal ratio van Europese instellingen op 9 procent te brengen. Ook zou de private sector deelname in het laatste reddingsplan voor Griekenland worden uitgebreid boven wat op de haircut van 21 procent die in juli is afgesproken. Volgens Europese functionarissen zou een haircut van 30-50 procent worden overwogen. Obligatiehouders, vertegenwoordigd door Deutsche Bank topman d4rz7ef Ackermann, zouden schoorvoetend akkoord aan het gaan zijn met
Maandag en gisteren kwamen aandelen onder druk te staan nadat Berlijn de verwachtingen voor de Europese top van dit weekend temperde. Europese beurzen kampten daarnaast met tegenvallende macrocijfers uit China en Duitsland en zorgen om de AAA-rating van Frankrijk. De AEX verloor 0,2 procent op 298,68 punten.
Op het bedrijvenfront kwamen voorbeurs Goldman Sachs, Bank of America en Johnson & Johnson met de cijfers over het derde kwartaal. Goldman Sachs maakte voor de tweede keer sinds de beursgang in 1999 een verlies bekend. Bank of America leed gecorrigeerd voor boekwinsten een verlies van 1,4 miljard dollar. Johnson & Johnson boekte meer winst dan verwacht en verhoogde de outlook. Goldman Sachs sloot 5,5 procent hoger en Bank of America en Johnson & Johnson stegen beiden 0,6 procent.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren overwegend lager gesloten, vanwege pessimisme over de eurotop komend weekend en door de waarschuwing van Moody's over de kredietrating van Frankrijk. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 0,4% lager op 2.306,81. De DAX-30 steeg 0,3% tot 5.877,41, de CAC-40 sloot 0,8% lager op 3.141,10 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,5% op 5.410,35. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag hoger gesloten, in tegengestelde richting van de lagere Europese aandelenmarkten, onder andere vanwege een vertraging van de Chinese groei in het derde kwartaal en de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met een klein verlies gesloten, de stemming aan het Damrak bleef afwachtend, terwijl op Wall Street bedrijfscijfers overwegend goed werden ontvangen.
Even keek de AEX-index van 25 hoofdfondsen over de 300-puntengrens, maar sloot uiteindelijk 0,2% lager op 298,68. De Midkap won 0,1% op 479,28 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% in de min op 423,46 punten.
De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is gisterenavond hoger gesloten, in lijn met een hoger Wall Street, waarbij zorgen over een vertraging van de economische groei in China aan de kant werden geschoven. De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie stond in eerste instantie onder druk nadat bekend werd dat de Chinese economie in het derde kwartaal is gegroeid met 9,1% ten opzichte van een jaar eerder, wat een vertraging betekent na de 9,5% groei van een kwartaal eerder en 9,7% in de eerste drie maanden van het jaar. De groei was bovendien kleiner dan de 9,2% die economen geraadpleegd door Dow Jones hadden verwacht. Op kwartaalbasis was sprake van een groei van 2,3%. Goud zakte gisterenavond met 0.7%.
Frans-Duitse spread op 10-jarige obligaties naar recordhoogte
LONDEN (Dow Jones)--Veilige Duitse staatsleningen zijn dinsdag in waarde gestegen, nadat kredietbeoordelaar Moody's Investors Service aankondigde de stabiele outlook op de AAA-rating van Frankrijk te zullen "volgen en evalueren".
De risico-opslag op tienjarige Franse leningen ten opzichte van de vergelijkbare Duitse bund stijgt hierdoor naar het hoogste niveau sinds de invoering van de euro.
Ook het rendement op tienjarige Franse leningen is dinsdag gedaald, ondanks de waarschuwing van Moody's, maar kon de stijging van Duits staatspapier niet bijbenen. Het rendement op tienjarige bunds daalde met 10 basispunten tot 1,996%, het laagste niveau in een week.
Bunds wonnen terrein omdat beleggers op zoek blijven naar veilige havens en zo min mogelijk risico's willen nemen. De bundfuture voor december steeg dinsdagochtend naar een top op 135,75, of 113 basispunten, om weer terug te zakken tot 135,33 rond 11.00 uur.
De spread tussen tienjarige Franse en Duitse leningen steeg naar 102 basispunten, wat erop wijst dat beleggers een hoger risico-opslag eisen voor Franse staatsobligaties.
De risico-opslag op een verzekering voor een vijfjarige Franse lening steeg met 10 basispunten tot 194 basispunten, volgens gegevens van Markit.
"De uitlatingen over een mogelijke afwaardering van Frankrijk bedrukken het sentiment en mensen zijn ook nerveus over de Franse blootstelling aan perifere eurozonelanden", zei een handelaar.
Hij voegde daaraan toe dat beleggers in toenemende mate het gevoel krijgen dat de Europese top van 23 oktober geen concrete oplossing voor de schuldencrisis zal opleveren.
Moody's kondigde aan dat het de vooruitzichten voor de Franse kredietwaardigheid in de komende maanden zal "volgen en evalueren, in het licht van de voortgang die wordt geboekt met het doorvoeren van economische en fiscale hervormingen" door de Franse regering. Daarbij zal de kredietbeoordelaar ook mogelijke negatieve ontwikkelingen in de economie of de financiele markten meewegen.
De stabiele vooruitzichten van Frankrijk staan onder druk door de oplopende staatsschuld en de kans dat het land meer verplichtingen op zich moet nemen.
In zijn jaarlijks rapport over het land stelt Moody's dat de triple-A-rating van Frankrijk de economische kracht van het land uitdrukt, de "robuustheid van zijn instellingen" en de zeer grote financiele kracht van de Franse overheid.
De laatste factor is echter zwakker geworden, net als in andere delen van de eurozone, door de mondiale financiele en economische crisis.
Daarbij staat Frankrijk de komende maanden voor diverse uitdagingen, zoals de mogelijke noodzaak om andere landen in de eurozone of zijn eigen bankstelsel te moeten steunen.
"Het is waarschijnlijk dat Moody's minimaal de vooruitzichten zal wijzigen komt in het begin van 2012", stelt analist Gary Jenkins van Evolution Securities in Londen.
France and Germany ready to agree €2tn euro rescue fund
Leaders of France and Germany aim to calm market fears before G20
France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said.
The growing confidence that a deal can be struck at this Sunday's crisis summit came amid signs of market pressure on France following the warning by the ratings agency Moody's that it might review the country's coveted AAA rating because of the cost of bailing out its banks and other members of the eurozone. The leaders of France and Germany hope to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility, in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month.
France would now have to pay more than a percentage point – some 114 basis points – over the price paid by Germany to borrow for 10 years as the gap between the two country's bond yields widened to their highest level since 1992.
On Tuesday stock markets and foreign exchanges reacted uneasily to the damping down of expectations, notably by Berlin, about the prospects of a full-scale deal although EU diplomats close to the talks say the Franco-German agreement covers boosting the financial firewalls for eurozone members to withstand the threat of a "credit event" or sovereign debt default in weaker countries.
This takes two forms. First, the main bailout fund, the European financial stability facility, will be given additional levers enabling it to offer first-loss guarantees for bondholders, be they private or public. Senior diplomats say this will deliver a fivefold increase in the fund's firepower – giving it more than €2tn compared with the current €440bn lending capability. The EFSF will in effect become an insurer, thereby overcoming European Central Bank resistance to the idea of turning into a bank.
Second, Berlin and Paris have agreed that Europe's banks should be recapitalised to meet the 9% capital ratio that the European Banking Authority is demanding after its re-examination of the exposure levels of 60 to 70 "systemic" banks. The EBA has marked these exposures much closer to current market values.
It is said that the overall recapitalisation required will be closer to €100bn rather than the €200bn talked about by Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, and others. French and German banks, senior sources said, can meet the new capital ratio target on their own without recourse to state funds, let alone the EFSF. Other countries' banks, however, may need financial support from the state or the EFSF.
Berlin and Paris are also said by those close to the negotiations to be edging nearer to agreeing on the increased scale of private sector involvement in the second rescue package (€109bn) for Greece. This was set at a voluntary 21% "haircut" in the July package but, under worsening overall economic conditions and a likely restructuring of Greek debt, Germany has been pushing for losses of up to 50%. France, backed by the ECB, has resisted the idea, while EU officials have clearly indicated that a range of 30 to 50% is being considered.
d4rz7ef Ackermann, Deutsche Bank's outgoing chief executive, held talks on Tuesday with senior EU officials on behalf of disgruntled bondholders. But there are signs that they are reluctantly accepting the need for bigger "haircuts" under the comprehensive plan to resolve the sovereign debt crisis. "We're not talking about a unilateral, one-sided restructuring of Greek debt," the diplomats said ahead of the imminent arrival of the full report from the troika of ECB, IMF and European commission on Greece's compliance with the bailout terms.
Senior EU officials admit that technical details remain to be settled. Some of these will be agreed by finance ministers who meet on Saturday, while others will await final agreement in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes. "It's a huge agenda," senior officials said of the plan of work for the summit. "But there will be a number of breakthroughs."
They added: "We thought the [Greek] package of 21 July was a big step, but obviously it was not enough and now we're pretty confident that markets will say that these people really mean what they say and will ensure stability."
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37800, om 23:00uur 1.37540, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 260.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87160, om 23:00uur 0.87490, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 330.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23570, om 23:00uur 1.23600, gemiddeld dagverschil van +30.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58080, om 23:00uur 1.57210, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 870.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.840, om 23:00uur 76.850, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 10.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02170, om 23:00uur 1.01400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 630.
EUR/USD zakt terug naar onderkant uptrend:
Korte termijn support lijn: 1.3690 en down 1.3525
Korte termijn Resistance lijn: 1.3970 en up 1.4055
EUR/USD doet op de hele korte termijn een stap achteruit en test momenteel een dubbele steun
rond 1.3690. Hier ligt zowel horizontale steun alsook de onderkant van de korte termijn stijgende trend. Zolang dit niveau standhoudt, blijft het korte termijn beeld gematigd positief. Begeeft
deze steun het, dan kan het corrigeren richting het volgende steunniveau 1,3525. Het korte termijn herstel loopt vooralsnog stuk op horizontale weerstandszone 1.3838 -1.3970. Een doorbraak hierboven is nodig om ruimte vrij te maken voor een opleving naar de dalende trend die thans binnenkomt rond 1.4380. Wat verder in tijd kan deze weerstandslijn samenvallen met de oude stijgende trend. De middellange termijn correctieve fase is intact zolang de weerstandslijn over de serie lagere toppen van de 2011 intact is.
FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 0.9022/25...Holding Long, Buy dips
R: 0.9045-60 / 0.9085-90 / 0.9117
S: 0.8975-65 / 0.8900 / 0.8850
Overall bullish. Did not dip to 0.8900 and has risen past 0.9000 instead. Immediate Resistance seen in the 0.9045-60 region. But may be able to target 0.91+ while it remains above 0.8950-00. Dips into the 0.8950-30 region are also possible while the immediate Resistance at 0.9045-60 holds. But we may expect fresh buying interest on dips.
Holding:
USD 10K Long at 0.9006, SL 0.9000 (up from 0.8930), TP 0.9070. As soon as the market trades 0.9050, bring SL up to 0.9035.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 0.8985, SL 0.8900, TP 0.9130
Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5730/33...Sell rally, if seen.
R: 1.5750-75 / 1.5820 / 1.5859
S: 1.5698 / 1.5656 / 1.5625-15
Has been finding Resistance in the 1.5800-20 region and has come off from there. Overall bearish. Immediate Support seen at 1.5700. Break thereof seems possible, may target 1.5670-50 on the downside in case the break below 1.5700 does happen. Immediate Resistance seen in the 1.5750-75 region and then above 1.5800.
In case the Support at 1.5700 holds, however, we could see a bounce into the 1.5760-70 region, to test the Resistances mentioned above.
UK CPI has come in much higher than anticipated. The Y/Y rise is 5.2% and inflation is now near the 2008 peak. High inflation on one hand and high unemployment on the other hand does not sound good. Take a look at www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukcpi.shtml
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.5765, SL 1.5865, TP 1.5645
Sell GBP 10K at 1.5830, SL 1.5875, TP 1.5645
Aussie AUD-USD @ 1.0151/54...Overall Bearish, sell into bounce
R: 1.0147-70 / 1.0207-19 / 1.0245
S: 1.0003 / 1.0082 / 1.0047
Our Short at 1.0180 has seen profit at 1.0120. Market overall very bearish, but immediate Support seen at 1.0100. If this Support holds on first testing, we could see a bounce towards 1.0160 or even 1.0230-40, where fresh selling interest may be seen. In case the Support at 1.0100 breaks immediately, a further fall towards 1.0050 will be seen in the near term.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The news that Germany and France have agreed to increase the Euro zone bail out fund to $2 trillion triggerd a sharp rise in the US markets yesterday. The Dow (11577.05) was up 1.58% and the Nasdaq (2657.43) was up 1.63%. However, there is no official confirmation on yesterday's news on increasing the EFSF and any contrary news could trigger a sharp sell off in the market.
The Asian markets are trading higher. But the late nite news on Spain's credit rating cut by the Moody's has limited the upside today in the Asian markets. Australia (4271.70) is up 0.54%), Hong Kong (18355.29) is up 1.54%, Nikkei (8789.83) is up 0.55% and Taiwan (7366.90) is up 0.13%. Shanghai (2376.91, down 0.28%) is trading lower following the weak economic data release yesterday. The Sensex (16748.29, down 276.80) and Nifty (5037.50, down 80.75) had closed lower yesterday and can see a bounce back following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (88.20) has bounced back well yesterday and is now trading in its 88-90 Resistance region. The 21-Week-MA Resistance is near 90 which we expect to hold and a pull back to 85-80 or even lower is possible in the coming days/weeks.
Gold (1663.40) fell sharply yesterday. The bear Wedge pattern is getting confirmed with yesterday's sharp fall and now while below 1700, we see good chances of a fall to 1570-50 in the coming days/weeks.
Silver (31.97) is continuing to oscillate around 32. Our bias remains bearish and we expect a fall to 29 initially and then a further break below 29 would take it down to 24-23.
Copper (3.35) is not gaining upside momentum after its fall from its 3.40-50 Resistance region. The overall picture remains weak and we might see a fall to 3.00-2.80 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3780) is being buffeted by hopeful/ dismal news on a daily basis regarding a solution to the European debt problem. It first fell to 1.3650 yesterday, but rebounded to 1.3817 in the US session on rumours that the EFSF corpus might be expanded to $2.5 trln from the current $440 bln. Nobody is asking, at the moment, where that kind of money is going to come from. The only place that we can think of is China!
Movement in the other currencies mirrored the movement in the Euro. The Pound (1.5741) bounced to 1.5773 from yesterday's low of 1.5631. The Aussie (1.0283) rose to 1.0326 from a low near 1.0118. We see good Resistance in the Aussie above 1.0300. Dollar-Swiss (0.8967) has fallen back after failing to rise past 0.9050. But we look for Support in the 0.8935-00 region.
Dollar-Yen (76.70) remains ranged. The Euro-Yen (105.72) therefore reflects movements in the EURUSD.
Asian currencies had los ground yesterday when the Euro fell to 1.3650, but have regained some strength with the subsequent bounce in the Euro. The USDSGD (1.2647) trades lower than yesterday's high near 1.2758. The ADXY is quoted near 116.26. But, we'd want to be cautious about Asian currencies now as profit-taking could come in. Dollar-Rupee had closed higher near 49.2950 yesterday. Support is expected at 49.10 today.
INTEREST RATES
After S&P on 13th of this month, its Moody which cut Spain credit rating by two levels from Aa2 to A1 on negative outlook. The third largest economy in Euro area contributing almost 12% to the area GDP being downgraded by second agency within a week time increases the apprehension on the area outlook. However 10Y Spanish bond yield remain stable at 5.32%. The demand for German bunds have increased compressing the yields across all maturities between 5 bps and 7 bps apart from 2Y yields which has inched up marginally by 1bps to 0.58%.
The yields on US treasuries closed mixed, 2Y stable at 0.27%, 5Y at 1.05% (-1bps), 10Y at 2.16% (-1bps) and 30Y at 3.16% (+1bps).
In India, 10Y GOI bond yields remained firmed at 8.80%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 13:00uur, 14:30uur en 16:30uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan wacht af, de Nikkei 225 sluit vlak. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De Eur/Usd zit in een uptrend, 1.38000.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
In de deal zit echter een belangrijke ontsnappingsclausule: als een land vreest dat deze inperking de verhandelbaar van zijn staatspapier verkleint, mag hij zich onttrekken aan de regelgeving via een zogeheten opt-out.
Duitsland en Frankrijk lopen alle lange tijd te hoop tegen speculatie met kredietderivaten. Dat is een verzekering voor het geval een land failliet gaat. Hiermee kunnen beleggers risico's afdekken op staatsobligaties. Duitsland en Frankrijk hebben er grote problemen mee als beleggers handelen in die derivaten zonder dat ze staatsobligaties bezitten. Daarmee zouden ze een financieel belang hebben bij het bankroet van een land. Daarom wilden beide landen deze ongedekte handel in kredietderivaten verbieden.
Liquiditeit
Ook het Europees Parlement zat op die lijn, maar veel lidstaten vonden dit veel te ver gaan. Vooral kleinere landen zijn bang dat hun staatsobligaties minder makkelijk te verhandelen is. Speculanten zorgen immers ook voor liquiditeit in de markt.
'Deze uitgebalanceerde maatregelen zullen ervoor zorgen dat kredietderivaten worden gebruikt waarvoor ze bedoeld waren, namelijk het indekken tegen het risico van een faillissement van een land, zonder dat een goed functioneren van de staatsobligatiemarkt in gevaar komt', aldus eurocommissaris Michel Barnier van interne markt in een verklaring dinsdagavond.
De Federal Reserve zou mogelijk zijn belangrijkste rentetarief moeten verhogen in het geval de centrale bank een potentieel gevaar constateert voor de financiele stabiliteit, meldt Fed-voorzitter Ben Bernanke gisteren.
Veel Fed-functionarissen redeneerden voor het uitbreken van de financiele crisis dat het inzetten van het rentetarief om de 'asset bubble' door te prikken te drastisch zou zijn. analisten redeneren nu dat de Fed nieuwe toezichthoudende bevoegdheden zou kunnen instellen om risico's, zoals excessieve kredietgroei, te beteugelen.
Bernanke stelt echter dat de effectiviteit van dergelijke regelgeving echter niet bewezen is. "De kans dat het monetaire beleid kan worden gebruikt om direct de financiele doelstellingen tot stabiliteit te ondersteunen, in ieder geval in de marge, mogen we echter niet uitsluiten", aldus Bernanke.
De centrale bankier meldt tevens dat de Fed zal stoppen met het opkopen van activa indien de economische omstandigheden weer genormaliseerd zijn, maar nieuwe vormen van begeleiding ter stimulering van de economie zal gebruiken en andere manieren van communicatie zal toepassen om het door de Fed gewenste beleid uit te dragen.
Kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's heeft de kredietwaardigheid van 24 Italiaanse banken verlaagd. Het gaat onder meer om de derde bank van het land en de oudste bank ter wereld, Banca Monte Dei Paschi Siena. Ook de vijfde bank van Italië, UBI Banca, werd afgewaardeerd.S&P zegt tot het besluit te zijn gekomen vanwege hernieuwde spanningen in de eurozone, met name in Italië, en vanwege slechte groeivooruitzichten voor de Italiaanse economie. De kredietbeoordelaar denkt ook dat het de komende tijd duurder wordt voor de banken om kapitaal aan te trekken.De verwachting is dat de winstgevendheid van de banken de komende jaren daalt. Als de Italiaanse regering geen maatregelen neemt om de economische groei te stimuleren zullen de omstandigheden voor de banken lange tijd slecht blijven, waarschuwt S&P.Een lagere kredietbeoordeling betekent dat het voor de banken duurder kan worden om geld te lenen. De twee grootste banken in Italië, Intesa Sanpaolo en Unicredit, werden ondanks de slechte vooruitzichten niet afgewaardeerd.
Wall Street sluit hoger op nieuws opgepompt EFSF
De S&P 500 steeg 2 procent nadat een Britse krant meldde dat Berlijn en Parijs akkoord zijn met het inzetten van een opgepompt noodfonds van 2 biljoen euro om de Europese schuldencrisis te verhelpen.
Wall Street is gisteren met stevige winsten gesloten op berichtgeving dat Frankrijk en Duitsland akkoord zijn over een dit weekend te presenteren plan dat de Europese schuldencrisis moet oplossen. De Britse krant The Guardian schreef gisterenavond op basis van uitspraken van Europese diplomaten dat Berlijn en Parijs de capaciteit van 440 miljard euro van het noodfonds EFSF willen oppompen tot 2 biljoen euro.
Dankzij het nieuws kwam Wall Street stevig in het groen en steeg de S&P 500 2,0 procent naar 1.225,38 punten. De Dow Jones eindigde 1,6 procent hoger op 11.577,05 punten en de Nasdaq won 1,6 procent op 2.657,43 punten. De euro/dollar herstelde van een intraday low op 1,365 naar 1,382. The Guardian schreef verder dat Berlijn en Parijs akkoord zijn met het herkapitaliseren van Europese banken. Het zou volgens de krant eerder 100 dan 200 miljard euro kosten om de Tier 1 kernkapitaal ratio van Europese instellingen op 9 procent te brengen. Ook zou de private sector deelname in het laatste reddingsplan voor Griekenland worden uitgebreid boven wat op de haircut van 21 procent die in juli is afgesproken. Volgens Europese functionarissen zou een haircut van 30-50 procent worden overwogen. Obligatiehouders, vertegenwoordigd door Deutsche Bank topman d4rz7ef Ackermann, zouden schoorvoetend akkoord aan het gaan zijn met
Maandag en gisteren kwamen aandelen onder druk te staan nadat Berlijn de verwachtingen voor de Europese top van dit weekend temperde. Europese beurzen kampten daarnaast met tegenvallende macrocijfers uit China en Duitsland en zorgen om de AAA-rating van Frankrijk. De AEX verloor 0,2 procent op 298,68 punten.
Op het bedrijvenfront kwamen voorbeurs Goldman Sachs, Bank of America en Johnson & Johnson met de cijfers over het derde kwartaal. Goldman Sachs maakte voor de tweede keer sinds de beursgang in 1999 een verlies bekend. Bank of America leed gecorrigeerd voor boekwinsten een verlies van 1,4 miljard dollar. Johnson & Johnson boekte meer winst dan verwacht en verhoogde de outlook. Goldman Sachs sloot 5,5 procent hoger en Bank of America en Johnson & Johnson stegen beiden 0,6 procent.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren overwegend lager gesloten, vanwege pessimisme over de eurotop komend weekend en door de waarschuwing van Moody's over de kredietrating van Frankrijk. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 0,4% lager op 2.306,81. De DAX-30 steeg 0,3% tot 5.877,41, de CAC-40 sloot 0,8% lager op 3.141,10 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,5% op 5.410,35. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag hoger gesloten, in tegengestelde richting van de lagere Europese aandelenmarkten, onder andere vanwege een vertraging van de Chinese groei in het derde kwartaal en de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met een klein verlies gesloten, de stemming aan het Damrak bleef afwachtend, terwijl op Wall Street bedrijfscijfers overwegend goed werden ontvangen.
Even keek de AEX-index van 25 hoofdfondsen over de 300-puntengrens, maar sloot uiteindelijk 0,2% lager op 298,68. De Midkap won 0,1% op 479,28 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% in de min op 423,46 punten.
De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is gisterenavond hoger gesloten, in lijn met een hoger Wall Street, waarbij zorgen over een vertraging van de economische groei in China aan de kant werden geschoven. De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie stond in eerste instantie onder druk nadat bekend werd dat de Chinese economie in het derde kwartaal is gegroeid met 9,1% ten opzichte van een jaar eerder, wat een vertraging betekent na de 9,5% groei van een kwartaal eerder en 9,7% in de eerste drie maanden van het jaar. De groei was bovendien kleiner dan de 9,2% die economen geraadpleegd door Dow Jones hadden verwacht. Op kwartaalbasis was sprake van een groei van 2,3%. Goud zakte gisterenavond met 0.7%.
Frans-Duitse spread op 10-jarige obligaties naar recordhoogte
LONDEN (Dow Jones)--Veilige Duitse staatsleningen zijn dinsdag in waarde gestegen, nadat kredietbeoordelaar Moody's Investors Service aankondigde de stabiele outlook op de AAA-rating van Frankrijk te zullen "volgen en evalueren".
De risico-opslag op tienjarige Franse leningen ten opzichte van de vergelijkbare Duitse bund stijgt hierdoor naar het hoogste niveau sinds de invoering van de euro.
Ook het rendement op tienjarige Franse leningen is dinsdag gedaald, ondanks de waarschuwing van Moody's, maar kon de stijging van Duits staatspapier niet bijbenen. Het rendement op tienjarige bunds daalde met 10 basispunten tot 1,996%, het laagste niveau in een week.
Bunds wonnen terrein omdat beleggers op zoek blijven naar veilige havens en zo min mogelijk risico's willen nemen. De bundfuture voor december steeg dinsdagochtend naar een top op 135,75, of 113 basispunten, om weer terug te zakken tot 135,33 rond 11.00 uur.
De spread tussen tienjarige Franse en Duitse leningen steeg naar 102 basispunten, wat erop wijst dat beleggers een hoger risico-opslag eisen voor Franse staatsobligaties.
De risico-opslag op een verzekering voor een vijfjarige Franse lening steeg met 10 basispunten tot 194 basispunten, volgens gegevens van Markit.
"De uitlatingen over een mogelijke afwaardering van Frankrijk bedrukken het sentiment en mensen zijn ook nerveus over de Franse blootstelling aan perifere eurozonelanden", zei een handelaar.
Hij voegde daaraan toe dat beleggers in toenemende mate het gevoel krijgen dat de Europese top van 23 oktober geen concrete oplossing voor de schuldencrisis zal opleveren.
Moody's kondigde aan dat het de vooruitzichten voor de Franse kredietwaardigheid in de komende maanden zal "volgen en evalueren, in het licht van de voortgang die wordt geboekt met het doorvoeren van economische en fiscale hervormingen" door de Franse regering. Daarbij zal de kredietbeoordelaar ook mogelijke negatieve ontwikkelingen in de economie of de financiele markten meewegen.
De stabiele vooruitzichten van Frankrijk staan onder druk door de oplopende staatsschuld en de kans dat het land meer verplichtingen op zich moet nemen.
In zijn jaarlijks rapport over het land stelt Moody's dat de triple-A-rating van Frankrijk de economische kracht van het land uitdrukt, de "robuustheid van zijn instellingen" en de zeer grote financiele kracht van de Franse overheid.
De laatste factor is echter zwakker geworden, net als in andere delen van de eurozone, door de mondiale financiele en economische crisis.
Daarbij staat Frankrijk de komende maanden voor diverse uitdagingen, zoals de mogelijke noodzaak om andere landen in de eurozone of zijn eigen bankstelsel te moeten steunen.
"Het is waarschijnlijk dat Moody's minimaal de vooruitzichten zal wijzigen komt in het begin van 2012", stelt analist Gary Jenkins van Evolution Securities in Londen.
France and Germany ready to agree €2tn euro rescue fund
Leaders of France and Germany aim to calm market fears before G20
France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said.
The growing confidence that a deal can be struck at this Sunday's crisis summit came amid signs of market pressure on France following the warning by the ratings agency Moody's that it might review the country's coveted AAA rating because of the cost of bailing out its banks and other members of the eurozone. The leaders of France and Germany hope to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility, in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month.
France would now have to pay more than a percentage point – some 114 basis points – over the price paid by Germany to borrow for 10 years as the gap between the two country's bond yields widened to their highest level since 1992.
On Tuesday stock markets and foreign exchanges reacted uneasily to the damping down of expectations, notably by Berlin, about the prospects of a full-scale deal although EU diplomats close to the talks say the Franco-German agreement covers boosting the financial firewalls for eurozone members to withstand the threat of a "credit event" or sovereign debt default in weaker countries.
This takes two forms. First, the main bailout fund, the European financial stability facility, will be given additional levers enabling it to offer first-loss guarantees for bondholders, be they private or public. Senior diplomats say this will deliver a fivefold increase in the fund's firepower – giving it more than €2tn compared with the current €440bn lending capability. The EFSF will in effect become an insurer, thereby overcoming European Central Bank resistance to the idea of turning into a bank.
Second, Berlin and Paris have agreed that Europe's banks should be recapitalised to meet the 9% capital ratio that the European Banking Authority is demanding after its re-examination of the exposure levels of 60 to 70 "systemic" banks. The EBA has marked these exposures much closer to current market values.
It is said that the overall recapitalisation required will be closer to €100bn rather than the €200bn talked about by Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, and others. French and German banks, senior sources said, can meet the new capital ratio target on their own without recourse to state funds, let alone the EFSF. Other countries' banks, however, may need financial support from the state or the EFSF.
Berlin and Paris are also said by those close to the negotiations to be edging nearer to agreeing on the increased scale of private sector involvement in the second rescue package (€109bn) for Greece. This was set at a voluntary 21% "haircut" in the July package but, under worsening overall economic conditions and a likely restructuring of Greek debt, Germany has been pushing for losses of up to 50%. France, backed by the ECB, has resisted the idea, while EU officials have clearly indicated that a range of 30 to 50% is being considered.
d4rz7ef Ackermann, Deutsche Bank's outgoing chief executive, held talks on Tuesday with senior EU officials on behalf of disgruntled bondholders. But there are signs that they are reluctantly accepting the need for bigger "haircuts" under the comprehensive plan to resolve the sovereign debt crisis. "We're not talking about a unilateral, one-sided restructuring of Greek debt," the diplomats said ahead of the imminent arrival of the full report from the troika of ECB, IMF and European commission on Greece's compliance with the bailout terms.
Senior EU officials admit that technical details remain to be settled. Some of these will be agreed by finance ministers who meet on Saturday, while others will await final agreement in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes. "It's a huge agenda," senior officials said of the plan of work for the summit. "But there will be a number of breakthroughs."
They added: "We thought the [Greek] package of 21 July was a big step, but obviously it was not enough and now we're pretty confident that markets will say that these people really mean what they say and will ensure stability."
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37800, om 23:00uur 1.37540, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 260.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87160, om 23:00uur 0.87490, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 330.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23570, om 23:00uur 1.23600, gemiddeld dagverschil van +30.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58080, om 23:00uur 1.57210, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 870.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.840, om 23:00uur 76.850, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 10.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02170, om 23:00uur 1.01400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 630.
EUR/USD zakt terug naar onderkant uptrend:
Korte termijn support lijn: 1.3690 en down 1.3525
Korte termijn Resistance lijn: 1.3970 en up 1.4055
EUR/USD doet op de hele korte termijn een stap achteruit en test momenteel een dubbele steun
rond 1.3690. Hier ligt zowel horizontale steun alsook de onderkant van de korte termijn stijgende trend. Zolang dit niveau standhoudt, blijft het korte termijn beeld gematigd positief. Begeeft
deze steun het, dan kan het corrigeren richting het volgende steunniveau 1,3525. Het korte termijn herstel loopt vooralsnog stuk op horizontale weerstandszone 1.3838 -1.3970. Een doorbraak hierboven is nodig om ruimte vrij te maken voor een opleving naar de dalende trend die thans binnenkomt rond 1.4380. Wat verder in tijd kan deze weerstandslijn samenvallen met de oude stijgende trend. De middellange termijn correctieve fase is intact zolang de weerstandslijn over de serie lagere toppen van de 2011 intact is.
FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 0.9022/25...Holding Long, Buy dips
R: 0.9045-60 / 0.9085-90 / 0.9117
S: 0.8975-65 / 0.8900 / 0.8850
Overall bullish. Did not dip to 0.8900 and has risen past 0.9000 instead. Immediate Resistance seen in the 0.9045-60 region. But may be able to target 0.91+ while it remains above 0.8950-00. Dips into the 0.8950-30 region are also possible while the immediate Resistance at 0.9045-60 holds. But we may expect fresh buying interest on dips.
Holding:
USD 10K Long at 0.9006, SL 0.9000 (up from 0.8930), TP 0.9070. As soon as the market trades 0.9050, bring SL up to 0.9035.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 0.8985, SL 0.8900, TP 0.9130
Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5730/33...Sell rally, if seen.
R: 1.5750-75 / 1.5820 / 1.5859
S: 1.5698 / 1.5656 / 1.5625-15
Has been finding Resistance in the 1.5800-20 region and has come off from there. Overall bearish. Immediate Support seen at 1.5700. Break thereof seems possible, may target 1.5670-50 on the downside in case the break below 1.5700 does happen. Immediate Resistance seen in the 1.5750-75 region and then above 1.5800.
In case the Support at 1.5700 holds, however, we could see a bounce into the 1.5760-70 region, to test the Resistances mentioned above.
UK CPI has come in much higher than anticipated. The Y/Y rise is 5.2% and inflation is now near the 2008 peak. High inflation on one hand and high unemployment on the other hand does not sound good. Take a look at www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukcpi.shtml
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.5765, SL 1.5865, TP 1.5645
Sell GBP 10K at 1.5830, SL 1.5875, TP 1.5645
Aussie AUD-USD @ 1.0151/54...Overall Bearish, sell into bounce
R: 1.0147-70 / 1.0207-19 / 1.0245
S: 1.0003 / 1.0082 / 1.0047
Our Short at 1.0180 has seen profit at 1.0120. Market overall very bearish, but immediate Support seen at 1.0100. If this Support holds on first testing, we could see a bounce towards 1.0160 or even 1.0230-40, where fresh selling interest may be seen. In case the Support at 1.0100 breaks immediately, a further fall towards 1.0050 will be seen in the near term.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The news that Germany and France have agreed to increase the Euro zone bail out fund to $2 trillion triggerd a sharp rise in the US markets yesterday. The Dow (11577.05) was up 1.58% and the Nasdaq (2657.43) was up 1.63%. However, there is no official confirmation on yesterday's news on increasing the EFSF and any contrary news could trigger a sharp sell off in the market.
The Asian markets are trading higher. But the late nite news on Spain's credit rating cut by the Moody's has limited the upside today in the Asian markets. Australia (4271.70) is up 0.54%), Hong Kong (18355.29) is up 1.54%, Nikkei (8789.83) is up 0.55% and Taiwan (7366.90) is up 0.13%. Shanghai (2376.91, down 0.28%) is trading lower following the weak economic data release yesterday. The Sensex (16748.29, down 276.80) and Nifty (5037.50, down 80.75) had closed lower yesterday and can see a bounce back following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (88.20) has bounced back well yesterday and is now trading in its 88-90 Resistance region. The 21-Week-MA Resistance is near 90 which we expect to hold and a pull back to 85-80 or even lower is possible in the coming days/weeks.
Gold (1663.40) fell sharply yesterday. The bear Wedge pattern is getting confirmed with yesterday's sharp fall and now while below 1700, we see good chances of a fall to 1570-50 in the coming days/weeks.
Silver (31.97) is continuing to oscillate around 32. Our bias remains bearish and we expect a fall to 29 initially and then a further break below 29 would take it down to 24-23.
Copper (3.35) is not gaining upside momentum after its fall from its 3.40-50 Resistance region. The overall picture remains weak and we might see a fall to 3.00-2.80 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3780) is being buffeted by hopeful/ dismal news on a daily basis regarding a solution to the European debt problem. It first fell to 1.3650 yesterday, but rebounded to 1.3817 in the US session on rumours that the EFSF corpus might be expanded to $2.5 trln from the current $440 bln. Nobody is asking, at the moment, where that kind of money is going to come from. The only place that we can think of is China!
Movement in the other currencies mirrored the movement in the Euro. The Pound (1.5741) bounced to 1.5773 from yesterday's low of 1.5631. The Aussie (1.0283) rose to 1.0326 from a low near 1.0118. We see good Resistance in the Aussie above 1.0300. Dollar-Swiss (0.8967) has fallen back after failing to rise past 0.9050. But we look for Support in the 0.8935-00 region.
Dollar-Yen (76.70) remains ranged. The Euro-Yen (105.72) therefore reflects movements in the EURUSD.
Asian currencies had los ground yesterday when the Euro fell to 1.3650, but have regained some strength with the subsequent bounce in the Euro. The USDSGD (1.2647) trades lower than yesterday's high near 1.2758. The ADXY is quoted near 116.26. But, we'd want to be cautious about Asian currencies now as profit-taking could come in. Dollar-Rupee had closed higher near 49.2950 yesterday. Support is expected at 49.10 today.
INTEREST RATES
After S&P on 13th of this month, its Moody which cut Spain credit rating by two levels from Aa2 to A1 on negative outlook. The third largest economy in Euro area contributing almost 12% to the area GDP being downgraded by second agency within a week time increases the apprehension on the area outlook. However 10Y Spanish bond yield remain stable at 5.32%. The demand for German bunds have increased compressing the yields across all maturities between 5 bps and 7 bps apart from 2Y yields which has inched up marginally by 1bps to 0.58%.
The yields on US treasuries closed mixed, 2Y stable at 0.27%, 5Y at 1.05% (-1bps), 10Y at 2.16% (-1bps) and 30Y at 3.16% (+1bps).
In India, 10Y GOI bond yields remained firmed at 8.80%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 13:00uur, 14:30uur en 16:30uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan wacht af, de Nikkei 225 sluit vlak. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De Eur/Usd zit in een uptrend, 1.38000.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 19 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DocData, trading update KW3
- Vivenda, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, augustus, 10.00 uur
- VK, notulen rentebesluit Bank of England, 10.30 uur
- Eurozone, betalingsbalans, KW2, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, huizenbouw, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 14 oktober, 16.30 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Woensdag 19 oktober: Algehele staking in Griekenland
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4254
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 20-10-2011
De economie is iets aangetrokken in het grootste deel van de VS in september en het begin van oktober, met name doordat Amerikanen meer hebben uitgegeven, terwijl de arbeidsmarkt weinig verbetering boekte, wat de suggestie wekt dat een voortgaande vertraging van de groei in het vooruitschiet ligt, blijkt uit het meest recente Beige Book.
De Amerikaanse centrale bank stelt in het rapport, dat is gebaseerd op de verklaringen van de twaalf regionale kantoren van de Fed, dat de economische activiteit in alle twaalf regio's is toegenomen in vergelijking tot de voorgaande rapportage van 7 september.
De meeste districten beschreven het tempo van de groei echter als "bescheiden" of "licht", waarbij het vooruitzicht voor bedrijven over het algemeen onzeker werd genoemd.
"De economie ligt niet meer op de intensive care, maar is nog niet uit het ziekenhuis", aldus Paul Kasriel, hoofdeconoom van Northern Trust. Kasriel verwacht dat de economie ook in 2012 moeite zal hebben en slechts tussen 1% en 2% zal groeien.
Het onderzoek naar de regionale economieen is opgesteld door de Fed van Chicago en gebaseerd op informatie verzameld van voor of op 7 oktober.
Het huidige Beige Book zal worden gebruikt bij de volgende beleidsvergadering van de Fed op 1 en 2 november. De verwachting is dat de leden vast zullen houden aan hun huidige losse beleid en zullen kijken naar de invloed van monetaire maatregelen die zij eind september genomen hebben. De economie van de VS heeft gedurende de zomer geflirt met een recessie doordat zorgen over schulden in Europa en de VS de financiele markten beheersten, maar lijkt nu enigszins aan te trekken.
Het onderzoek van de Fed toont aan dat de hogere consumentenbestedingen aangevoerd werden door de autoverkopen en het toerisme. De autoverkopen profiteerden van een grotere beschikbaarheid van auto's doordat de toevoerproblemen, ontstaan na de aardbeving in Japan in maart, inmiddels voorbij zijn. Vooral in San Francisco en New York nam het aantal autoverkopen toe.
Uit cijfers van het ministerie van handel bleek op 14 oktober dat de Amerikanen vorige maand meer gewinkeld hebben, ondanks de onzekerheid over de gezondheid van de economie. De omzet op retailgebied steeg 1,1%, de grootste stijging sinds februari. De consumentenbestedingen zijn goed voor ongeveer 70% van alle economische activiteit in de VS.
De condities op de arbeidsmarkt bleven echter zwak. De Fed's van Boston, Richmond, Atlanta en Chicago merkten een terughoudendheid onder de bedrijven op, welke voortkomt uit de grote mate van onzekerheid en lagere groeiverwachtingen. Ondanks dat werkgevers banen bleven toevoegen in september was het niet genoeg om de werkloosheid te verlagen. De werkloosheid bleef ongewijzigd op 9,1%.
De productie- en transportactiviteit steeg in vergelijking met de vorige rapportage. In Cleveland, Atlanta en Chicago nam de autoproductie toe, waar de Fed's in Boston, Richmond, Chicago en St. Louis de kracht van auto-leveranciers aanhaalden.
De Fed maakte eerder in de week bekend dat de fabriekssector in september is verbeterd door een grotere output op het gebied van auto's, computers en elektrische apparatuur. De stijging in de VS gaat tegen de trend van dalingen in die in september in andere delen van de wereld te zien was.
Sommige regio's meldden een kleine vooruitgang op vastgoed- en bouwgebied, maar over het algemeen bleven de omstandigheden voor woon- en commercieel vastgoed zwak.
De kosten voor grondstoffen, zoals olie en industriele metalen, namen in de meeste delen van het land af. De loondruk beschreef de Fed als ingetogen. De Fed denkt dat de zwakte op de arbeidsmarkt er deels voor zorgt dat de inflatie in de komende kwartalen onder controle gehouden kan worden.
De consumentenprijzen stegen in september 3,9% op jaarbasis, de grootste stijging in drie jaar. De toename werd aangevoerd door hogere kosten voor voedsel en energie, welke volgens de Fed snel zullen afnemen. De onderliggende inflatie nam 2% toe, wat dichter bij de comfort zone van de Fed is en de centrale bank de ruimte geeft om banken meer te stimuleren als dit nodig mocht zijn.
Wall Street is gisteren lager gesloten, met name nadat de onzekere economische vooruitzichten, ondanks een aangetrokken economische activiteit in september en begin oktober, bovenop de al zwak presterende technologiefondsen kwam.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,6% lager op 11.504,62 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 1,3% tot 1.209,88 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 2,0% afstond tot 2.604,04 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren hoger gesloten, vanwege de verwachting dat een verhoging van het EFSF-steunfonds op handen is, waarmee een oplossing voor de Europese schuldproblemen binnen handbereik lijkt.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 1,0% hoger op 2.330,08. De DAX-30 steeg 0,6% tot 5.913,53, de CAC-40 sloot 0,5% hoger op 3.157,34 en de FTSE-100 won 0,7% op 5.450,49.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag lager gesloten, omdat de risicobereidheid onder beleggers aangewakkerd werd door hoop op een beslissende oplossing voor de schuldencrisis tijdens de Europese top op 23 oktober.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren hoger gesloten, waarbij het Damrak, in navolging op markten wereldwijd, positief gestemd is vanwege de verwachting dat er een doortimmerd reddingsplan voor de Europese schuldenproblematiek in de maak is.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 1,0% hoger op 301,68 punten. De Midkap won 0,7% tot 482,45 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% hoger op 425,97 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, nadat aandelen aan het wankelen werden gebracht door de bekendmaking van het Beige Book en daarmee de sterke stijgingen na de verrassende daling van de olievoorraden teniet deden.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,23 lager op $86,11.
Euro crisis: German, French, IMF, ECB leaders meet
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The leaders of Germany, France, the IMF and the European Central Bank worked Wednesday to prepare for a crucial European summit that markets worldwide hope will save the 17-nation euro currency and find a solution to the region's deepening debt crisis.
The last-minute meeting in Frankfurt came amid mounting pressure on European leaders to shore up their banks, slash debts and halt market volatility with a comprehensive, dramatic plan at the EU summit Sunday.
Expectations are fluctuating wildly, as are financial markets, amid reports about the scope of the plan. The meeting in Germany ended without the officials making statements to journalists.
Retiring European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the eurozone's debt crisis requires "immediate action" in coming days and defended the euro as a bulwark against inflation that benefits ordinary people.
At an event marking Trichet's retirement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated her warning that "if the euro fails, then Europe fails. But we will not let that happen."
She said the summit on Sunday "will not be the end point of regaining trust. It will be a point at which we act, but much more will follow."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived at Frankfurt's Old Opera on Wednesday night for what a French official called an "informal working meeting" with Merkel, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, incoming ECB chief Mario Draghi, EU President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President d4rz7e Manuel Barroso. Sarkozy, Merkel and other officials left several hours later without speaking before waiting television cameras.
Sarkozy had earlier told a Cabinet meeting that the summit in Brussels "is a crucial moment, for Europe and for France," government spokeswoman Valerie Pecresse said.
Eurozone officials are trying to contain a crisis over too much debt in some countries, and related fears that a country might default and cripple banks who hold its bonds.
A poetry fan, Trichet quoted the German writer Goethe, saying: "To know is not enough. To intend is not enough. We must do it!"
"I think this applies admirably to the sense of action which should inspire Europe in coming days," he said.
Earlier this week, German finance chief Wolfgang Schaeuble said the measures to be announced Sunday would not mark the end of the eurozone debt crisis and that some parts may need more time to be ironed out.
The hope has been that eurozone governments are preparing a three-pronged solution to the debt crisis -- measures to boost the firepower of their fund to bail out weak states, a recapitalization of a large part of the banking sector, and a plan to get banks to take a bigger hit on their Greek debt holdings.
France and Germany disagree on the last point. Germany is pushing for banks to accept cuts of 50 percent to 60 percent on their Greek bondholdings, while France is insisting that only technical revisions should be made to a preliminary agreement reached with private investors in July. That deal called for a 21 percent loss on the bonds.
Markets recovered after The Guardian newspaper reported that France and Germany were putting the finishing touches on a massive expansion of the bailout fund, possibly to euro3 trillion ($4.1 trillion) from the current euro440 billion.
German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus, however, said there was no agreement yet in the eurozone on how to boost the lending capacities of the bailout fund -- the European Financial and Stability Facility, or EFSF -- beyond the euro440 billion it has available.
Expanding the bailout fund is not an option, but the aim is to maximize the possible impact of the committed funds, he said.
"The question is: how can we maximize the efficiency of those euro440 billion?" he said.
Kotthaus described as inaccurate media reports that Schaeuble had suggested Berlin was prepared to use an insurance model to boost the lending capacity to euro1 trillion. If Schaeuble used the euro1 trillion figure in a briefing with lawmakers, he may have used it only as an example to illustrate how the idea of leveraging the EFSF could work, he added.
"We have extremely intense discussions, conferences and telephone conferences" to prepare this weekend's summit, he said. "We are still in the middle of the discussions. We are working under high pressure. We will certainly have a solution in the coming days."
Blame Britain’s feeble recovery on high inflation
Grim. Whether it is Sir Mervyn King’s warning the recovery is off-track, inflation rising to equal a 20-year high or the new Ernst & Young Item Club forecast expecting UK growth of only 0.9 per cent this year, the word describes the current economic outlook. Hopes that Britain could show in 2011 that it was escaping the grip of the financial crisis have been dashed.
The Bank of England governor blamed the rest of Europe for Britain’s feeble recovery. “The main impediment to the strategy of rebalancing our economy is markedly slower growth in our major export markets, especially in the rest of Europe,” he said on Tuesday. By contrast, Labour frets that economic policy is repeating the historic mistake of the 1930s with “too far, too fast” deficit reduction.
Both of these explanations are close to irrelevant in explaining what has gone wrong this year. The real cause of economic weakness has been the surprise of high inflation that is not matched by income growth. To understand why inflation has been so important we must compare Britain’s economy today with the world expected a year ago. If the Item Club pessimistic view is now roughly right, this year growth will fall 1.2 percentage points short of the 2.1 per cent gain forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in November 2010. That is the equivalent of losing £17bn from economic output.
Since the fiscal tightening was fully known a year ago, the only way deficit reduction can explain the difference is if the OBR was grotesquely optimistic about the effects of tax rises and spending cuts on the economy. If so, you would expect to see private sector savings rising rapidly in response to fiscal tightening, multiplying the initial effect through the economy. It has not happened.
Eurozone woes, bad and threatening as they are, provide no better an explanation for Britain’s current mess. A year ago, the International Monetary Fund expected the eurozone to expand by 1.4 per cent in the year to the fourth quarter. A year on, the fund has merely trimmed that forecast to 1.1 per cent. While a eurozone blow-up is an existential threat to Britain’s banks and could cause calamity for Britain’s economy next year, the shortfall of 0.3 percentage points in eurozone growth we have seen to date barely causes a ripple in Britain’s national accounts.
Unexpected inflation is in a different league. In November last year, the OBR expected the September 2011 inflation figure would be 3.1 per cent and earnings would grow 2.2 per cent this year. The earnings forecast still looks pretty good, but we now know that inflation hit 5.2 per cent. Real incomes have therefore suffered more than a 2 per cent unexpected hit in 2011 owing to surprise spikes in oil, food and energy prices. Cutting this from wages and salaries alone represents a £14bn hit to incomes this year. Add in other non-indexed sources of income and real household disposable incomes are at least £17bn lower than expected a year ago – fully explaining the shortfall in output and most of the expected shortfall in household consumption.
With inflation depressing incomes, should the Bank have done more to restrain price rises this year?
If it could have done so without collateral damage, the answer is “of course”. On one level, the Bank was impotent. Tighter monetary policies would have had no effect on the Arab spring, which pushed oil prices higher, nor do global food prices pay much attention to the monetary policy committee. So, the only realistic way of keeping inflation lower would have been to raise interest rates, hoping sterling would rise enough for the UK price of commodities to remain stable.
Any such action would have damped price rises, but at such a cost to the few industrial sectors that have done well this year that the policy stance would be perverse. Imbalances would have been prolonged, the economy would have been facing another recession and households would not have enjoyed modestly lower inflation for long.
Through higher imported inflation Britain is learning that increased competitiveness via currency depreciation is pretty similar for most households to the wage cuts imposed by other crisis-hit economies – Ireland, Greece and Spain – within the European single currency area.
The public do not like this inflationary period, but at least there is a silver lining to the cloud. Commodity prices have stopped rising for now, so once the gas and electricity price rises have been absorbed, most households do not have another big shock to incomes in the offing. Inflation as an income and growth killer should be just a 2011 phenomenon.
Fed Risks Credibility Over Bank Ties, Report Says
The Federal Reserve faces a risk to its credibility because of the banking industry's role in choosing board members at the 12 regional Fed banks, a congressional watchdog said Wednesday.
The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan research arm of Congress, called on the U.S. central bank to take additional steps to prevent potential conflicts of interest, as well as to boost disclosures to the public. Without such steps, the agency said, public skepticism about the Fed could increase.
"Failing to make the process and decisions more transparent can decrease confidence in the Federal Reserve System and has resulted in questions ...
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38050, om 23:00uur 1.37580, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 470.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87650, om 23:00uur 0.87220, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 430.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23710, om 23:00uur 1.24200, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 490.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57510, om 23:00uur 1.57740, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 230.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.720, om 23:00uur 76.810, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 90.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01110, om 23:00uur 1.02000, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 890.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The market remains nervous ahead of the EU summit this weekend. The recent movements in the market is clearly news driven and no one is clear on the actual situation of the market. On the charts the big picture is still weak and we remain bearish on the market.
The equity markets are trading lower all over following the news that the talks between Germany and France to resolve the Euro debt crisis was stuck. The US markets had closed lower yesterday. The Dow (11504.62) was down 0.63% and the Nasdaq (2604.04) was down 2.01%.
The Asian markets are bleeding all over. Australia (4214.80) is down 1.40%, Nikkei (8692.57) is down 0.91%, Shanghai (2353.22) is down 1.02%, Hong Kong (17970.91) down 1.02% and Taiwan (7308.36) is down 0.61%. The Sensex (17085.34, up 337.05 points) and Nifty (5139.15, up 101.65 points) had closed higher yesterday but could give up its gains today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
The uncertainity on the Euro zone debt crisis is keeping the commodities markets pressured on the downside and a sharp fall was seen yesterday.
Nymex Crude (85.80) has come off from its high of 89.51. Technically the Resistance in 88-90 is holding well and is keeping up our broader bearish view intact for a fall to 80 or even 70 going forward.
Gold (1628.30) fell further and the bear wedge pattern is confirmed now. As we have been mentioning for some time, Gold can now target 1570-50 on the downside.
Important to see is that the Silver (30.86) chart has also confirmed the bear wedge pattern and it can now fall to the target that we have been mentioning for some time, 29 initially and then possibly to 24-23.
Copper (3.15) is keeping up our bearish view intact for a fall to 3.00-2.80.
CURRENCIES
The news that talks between France and Germany on the Euro debt crisis has added downside pressure on the Euro (1.3718) which has come off from yesterday's high of 1.3869. A further dip to 1.3650-00 looks likely while below 1.3800. Dollar-Yen (76.75) remains flat in a narrow range of 76.60-90 over the last several sessions. The Euro-Yen Cross (105.27) has come off from yesterday's high of 106.53 and looks bearish for further fall to 104 or even lower.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9061) is bullish. It has some Resistance near 0.9100 and a strong break above it would open doors for further rise to 0.9200-300. Cable (1.5734) has found strong Resistance near 1.5850 and can now fall to 1.5630-00 on a strong break below 1.5700. Aussie (1.0180) fell sharply and extend its fall to 1.0120-00 today. Importantly there is a good Double-Top formation seen on 4-hr chart and Aussie could be bearish for a fall to 0.9900-0.9850 on a strong break below 1.0100.
The Asian currencies are trading weak. The Korean-Won is trading near 1141 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2709. Dollar-Rupee had closed yesterday at 49.15/16 and can rise to 49.25-30 or even higher today given the overall strength in the Dollar.
INTEREST RATES
Brazil cut interest rate by 50bps to 11.5% in the second consecutive meeting. The slash was lead by weak global economic outlook.
Global bond prices came off following the major International financial markets. In the US, treasuries yields has increased across all maturities between 1bps to 3bps with far end tenors are increasing more, 2Y remained stable at 0.27%, 5Y to 0.63% 1.06%(+1bps) and 30Y to 3.19% (+3bps). German bunds were not exceptional, yields spiked up more as compare to its US counterpart, 2Y inched up to 0.63%(+5bps) and 30Y to 2.81% (+5bps). We expect the bunds yields to escalate further.
In India, 10Y GOI yields moved to 8.77%, down from its weekly high of 8.80% but added 2bps during last intraday.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 8:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 16:00uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Beurs Japan zakt weg, Nikkei 225 op -1.00%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd onder druk, downtrend, 1.36900.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
De Amerikaanse centrale bank stelt in het rapport, dat is gebaseerd op de verklaringen van de twaalf regionale kantoren van de Fed, dat de economische activiteit in alle twaalf regio's is toegenomen in vergelijking tot de voorgaande rapportage van 7 september.
De meeste districten beschreven het tempo van de groei echter als "bescheiden" of "licht", waarbij het vooruitzicht voor bedrijven over het algemeen onzeker werd genoemd.
"De economie ligt niet meer op de intensive care, maar is nog niet uit het ziekenhuis", aldus Paul Kasriel, hoofdeconoom van Northern Trust. Kasriel verwacht dat de economie ook in 2012 moeite zal hebben en slechts tussen 1% en 2% zal groeien.
Het onderzoek naar de regionale economieen is opgesteld door de Fed van Chicago en gebaseerd op informatie verzameld van voor of op 7 oktober.
Het huidige Beige Book zal worden gebruikt bij de volgende beleidsvergadering van de Fed op 1 en 2 november. De verwachting is dat de leden vast zullen houden aan hun huidige losse beleid en zullen kijken naar de invloed van monetaire maatregelen die zij eind september genomen hebben. De economie van de VS heeft gedurende de zomer geflirt met een recessie doordat zorgen over schulden in Europa en de VS de financiele markten beheersten, maar lijkt nu enigszins aan te trekken.
Het onderzoek van de Fed toont aan dat de hogere consumentenbestedingen aangevoerd werden door de autoverkopen en het toerisme. De autoverkopen profiteerden van een grotere beschikbaarheid van auto's doordat de toevoerproblemen, ontstaan na de aardbeving in Japan in maart, inmiddels voorbij zijn. Vooral in San Francisco en New York nam het aantal autoverkopen toe.
Uit cijfers van het ministerie van handel bleek op 14 oktober dat de Amerikanen vorige maand meer gewinkeld hebben, ondanks de onzekerheid over de gezondheid van de economie. De omzet op retailgebied steeg 1,1%, de grootste stijging sinds februari. De consumentenbestedingen zijn goed voor ongeveer 70% van alle economische activiteit in de VS.
De condities op de arbeidsmarkt bleven echter zwak. De Fed's van Boston, Richmond, Atlanta en Chicago merkten een terughoudendheid onder de bedrijven op, welke voortkomt uit de grote mate van onzekerheid en lagere groeiverwachtingen. Ondanks dat werkgevers banen bleven toevoegen in september was het niet genoeg om de werkloosheid te verlagen. De werkloosheid bleef ongewijzigd op 9,1%.
De productie- en transportactiviteit steeg in vergelijking met de vorige rapportage. In Cleveland, Atlanta en Chicago nam de autoproductie toe, waar de Fed's in Boston, Richmond, Chicago en St. Louis de kracht van auto-leveranciers aanhaalden.
De Fed maakte eerder in de week bekend dat de fabriekssector in september is verbeterd door een grotere output op het gebied van auto's, computers en elektrische apparatuur. De stijging in de VS gaat tegen de trend van dalingen in die in september in andere delen van de wereld te zien was.
Sommige regio's meldden een kleine vooruitgang op vastgoed- en bouwgebied, maar over het algemeen bleven de omstandigheden voor woon- en commercieel vastgoed zwak.
De kosten voor grondstoffen, zoals olie en industriele metalen, namen in de meeste delen van het land af. De loondruk beschreef de Fed als ingetogen. De Fed denkt dat de zwakte op de arbeidsmarkt er deels voor zorgt dat de inflatie in de komende kwartalen onder controle gehouden kan worden.
De consumentenprijzen stegen in september 3,9% op jaarbasis, de grootste stijging in drie jaar. De toename werd aangevoerd door hogere kosten voor voedsel en energie, welke volgens de Fed snel zullen afnemen. De onderliggende inflatie nam 2% toe, wat dichter bij de comfort zone van de Fed is en de centrale bank de ruimte geeft om banken meer te stimuleren als dit nodig mocht zijn.
Wall Street is gisteren lager gesloten, met name nadat de onzekere economische vooruitzichten, ondanks een aangetrokken economische activiteit in september en begin oktober, bovenop de al zwak presterende technologiefondsen kwam.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,6% lager op 11.504,62 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 1,3% tot 1.209,88 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 2,0% afstond tot 2.604,04 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren hoger gesloten, vanwege de verwachting dat een verhoging van het EFSF-steunfonds op handen is, waarmee een oplossing voor de Europese schuldproblemen binnen handbereik lijkt.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 1,0% hoger op 2.330,08. De DAX-30 steeg 0,6% tot 5.913,53, de CAC-40 sloot 0,5% hoger op 3.157,34 en de FTSE-100 won 0,7% op 5.450,49.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag lager gesloten, omdat de risicobereidheid onder beleggers aangewakkerd werd door hoop op een beslissende oplossing voor de schuldencrisis tijdens de Europese top op 23 oktober.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren hoger gesloten, waarbij het Damrak, in navolging op markten wereldwijd, positief gestemd is vanwege de verwachting dat er een doortimmerd reddingsplan voor de Europese schuldenproblematiek in de maak is.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 1,0% hoger op 301,68 punten. De Midkap won 0,7% tot 482,45 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% hoger op 425,97 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, nadat aandelen aan het wankelen werden gebracht door de bekendmaking van het Beige Book en daarmee de sterke stijgingen na de verrassende daling van de olievoorraden teniet deden.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,23 lager op $86,11.
Euro crisis: German, French, IMF, ECB leaders meet
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The leaders of Germany, France, the IMF and the European Central Bank worked Wednesday to prepare for a crucial European summit that markets worldwide hope will save the 17-nation euro currency and find a solution to the region's deepening debt crisis.
The last-minute meeting in Frankfurt came amid mounting pressure on European leaders to shore up their banks, slash debts and halt market volatility with a comprehensive, dramatic plan at the EU summit Sunday.
Expectations are fluctuating wildly, as are financial markets, amid reports about the scope of the plan. The meeting in Germany ended without the officials making statements to journalists.
Retiring European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the eurozone's debt crisis requires "immediate action" in coming days and defended the euro as a bulwark against inflation that benefits ordinary people.
At an event marking Trichet's retirement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated her warning that "if the euro fails, then Europe fails. But we will not let that happen."
She said the summit on Sunday "will not be the end point of regaining trust. It will be a point at which we act, but much more will follow."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived at Frankfurt's Old Opera on Wednesday night for what a French official called an "informal working meeting" with Merkel, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, incoming ECB chief Mario Draghi, EU President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President d4rz7e Manuel Barroso. Sarkozy, Merkel and other officials left several hours later without speaking before waiting television cameras.
Sarkozy had earlier told a Cabinet meeting that the summit in Brussels "is a crucial moment, for Europe and for France," government spokeswoman Valerie Pecresse said.
Eurozone officials are trying to contain a crisis over too much debt in some countries, and related fears that a country might default and cripple banks who hold its bonds.
A poetry fan, Trichet quoted the German writer Goethe, saying: "To know is not enough. To intend is not enough. We must do it!"
"I think this applies admirably to the sense of action which should inspire Europe in coming days," he said.
Earlier this week, German finance chief Wolfgang Schaeuble said the measures to be announced Sunday would not mark the end of the eurozone debt crisis and that some parts may need more time to be ironed out.
The hope has been that eurozone governments are preparing a three-pronged solution to the debt crisis -- measures to boost the firepower of their fund to bail out weak states, a recapitalization of a large part of the banking sector, and a plan to get banks to take a bigger hit on their Greek debt holdings.
France and Germany disagree on the last point. Germany is pushing for banks to accept cuts of 50 percent to 60 percent on their Greek bondholdings, while France is insisting that only technical revisions should be made to a preliminary agreement reached with private investors in July. That deal called for a 21 percent loss on the bonds.
Markets recovered after The Guardian newspaper reported that France and Germany were putting the finishing touches on a massive expansion of the bailout fund, possibly to euro3 trillion ($4.1 trillion) from the current euro440 billion.
German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus, however, said there was no agreement yet in the eurozone on how to boost the lending capacities of the bailout fund -- the European Financial and Stability Facility, or EFSF -- beyond the euro440 billion it has available.
Expanding the bailout fund is not an option, but the aim is to maximize the possible impact of the committed funds, he said.
"The question is: how can we maximize the efficiency of those euro440 billion?" he said.
Kotthaus described as inaccurate media reports that Schaeuble had suggested Berlin was prepared to use an insurance model to boost the lending capacity to euro1 trillion. If Schaeuble used the euro1 trillion figure in a briefing with lawmakers, he may have used it only as an example to illustrate how the idea of leveraging the EFSF could work, he added.
"We have extremely intense discussions, conferences and telephone conferences" to prepare this weekend's summit, he said. "We are still in the middle of the discussions. We are working under high pressure. We will certainly have a solution in the coming days."
Blame Britain’s feeble recovery on high inflation
Grim. Whether it is Sir Mervyn King’s warning the recovery is off-track, inflation rising to equal a 20-year high or the new Ernst & Young Item Club forecast expecting UK growth of only 0.9 per cent this year, the word describes the current economic outlook. Hopes that Britain could show in 2011 that it was escaping the grip of the financial crisis have been dashed.
The Bank of England governor blamed the rest of Europe for Britain’s feeble recovery. “The main impediment to the strategy of rebalancing our economy is markedly slower growth in our major export markets, especially in the rest of Europe,” he said on Tuesday. By contrast, Labour frets that economic policy is repeating the historic mistake of the 1930s with “too far, too fast” deficit reduction.
Both of these explanations are close to irrelevant in explaining what has gone wrong this year. The real cause of economic weakness has been the surprise of high inflation that is not matched by income growth. To understand why inflation has been so important we must compare Britain’s economy today with the world expected a year ago. If the Item Club pessimistic view is now roughly right, this year growth will fall 1.2 percentage points short of the 2.1 per cent gain forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in November 2010. That is the equivalent of losing £17bn from economic output.
Since the fiscal tightening was fully known a year ago, the only way deficit reduction can explain the difference is if the OBR was grotesquely optimistic about the effects of tax rises and spending cuts on the economy. If so, you would expect to see private sector savings rising rapidly in response to fiscal tightening, multiplying the initial effect through the economy. It has not happened.
Eurozone woes, bad and threatening as they are, provide no better an explanation for Britain’s current mess. A year ago, the International Monetary Fund expected the eurozone to expand by 1.4 per cent in the year to the fourth quarter. A year on, the fund has merely trimmed that forecast to 1.1 per cent. While a eurozone blow-up is an existential threat to Britain’s banks and could cause calamity for Britain’s economy next year, the shortfall of 0.3 percentage points in eurozone growth we have seen to date barely causes a ripple in Britain’s national accounts.
Unexpected inflation is in a different league. In November last year, the OBR expected the September 2011 inflation figure would be 3.1 per cent and earnings would grow 2.2 per cent this year. The earnings forecast still looks pretty good, but we now know that inflation hit 5.2 per cent. Real incomes have therefore suffered more than a 2 per cent unexpected hit in 2011 owing to surprise spikes in oil, food and energy prices. Cutting this from wages and salaries alone represents a £14bn hit to incomes this year. Add in other non-indexed sources of income and real household disposable incomes are at least £17bn lower than expected a year ago – fully explaining the shortfall in output and most of the expected shortfall in household consumption.
With inflation depressing incomes, should the Bank have done more to restrain price rises this year?
If it could have done so without collateral damage, the answer is “of course”. On one level, the Bank was impotent. Tighter monetary policies would have had no effect on the Arab spring, which pushed oil prices higher, nor do global food prices pay much attention to the monetary policy committee. So, the only realistic way of keeping inflation lower would have been to raise interest rates, hoping sterling would rise enough for the UK price of commodities to remain stable.
Any such action would have damped price rises, but at such a cost to the few industrial sectors that have done well this year that the policy stance would be perverse. Imbalances would have been prolonged, the economy would have been facing another recession and households would not have enjoyed modestly lower inflation for long.
Through higher imported inflation Britain is learning that increased competitiveness via currency depreciation is pretty similar for most households to the wage cuts imposed by other crisis-hit economies – Ireland, Greece and Spain – within the European single currency area.
The public do not like this inflationary period, but at least there is a silver lining to the cloud. Commodity prices have stopped rising for now, so once the gas and electricity price rises have been absorbed, most households do not have another big shock to incomes in the offing. Inflation as an income and growth killer should be just a 2011 phenomenon.
Fed Risks Credibility Over Bank Ties, Report Says
The Federal Reserve faces a risk to its credibility because of the banking industry's role in choosing board members at the 12 regional Fed banks, a congressional watchdog said Wednesday.
The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan research arm of Congress, called on the U.S. central bank to take additional steps to prevent potential conflicts of interest, as well as to boost disclosures to the public. Without such steps, the agency said, public skepticism about the Fed could increase.
"Failing to make the process and decisions more transparent can decrease confidence in the Federal Reserve System and has resulted in questions ...
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.38050, om 23:00uur 1.37580, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 470.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87650, om 23:00uur 0.87220, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 430.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.23710, om 23:00uur 1.24200, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 490.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57510, om 23:00uur 1.57740, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 230.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.720, om 23:00uur 76.810, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 90.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01110, om 23:00uur 1.02000, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 890.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The market remains nervous ahead of the EU summit this weekend. The recent movements in the market is clearly news driven and no one is clear on the actual situation of the market. On the charts the big picture is still weak and we remain bearish on the market.
The equity markets are trading lower all over following the news that the talks between Germany and France to resolve the Euro debt crisis was stuck. The US markets had closed lower yesterday. The Dow (11504.62) was down 0.63% and the Nasdaq (2604.04) was down 2.01%.
The Asian markets are bleeding all over. Australia (4214.80) is down 1.40%, Nikkei (8692.57) is down 0.91%, Shanghai (2353.22) is down 1.02%, Hong Kong (17970.91) down 1.02% and Taiwan (7308.36) is down 0.61%. The Sensex (17085.34, up 337.05 points) and Nifty (5139.15, up 101.65 points) had closed higher yesterday but could give up its gains today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
The uncertainity on the Euro zone debt crisis is keeping the commodities markets pressured on the downside and a sharp fall was seen yesterday.
Nymex Crude (85.80) has come off from its high of 89.51. Technically the Resistance in 88-90 is holding well and is keeping up our broader bearish view intact for a fall to 80 or even 70 going forward.
Gold (1628.30) fell further and the bear wedge pattern is confirmed now. As we have been mentioning for some time, Gold can now target 1570-50 on the downside.
Important to see is that the Silver (30.86) chart has also confirmed the bear wedge pattern and it can now fall to the target that we have been mentioning for some time, 29 initially and then possibly to 24-23.
Copper (3.15) is keeping up our bearish view intact for a fall to 3.00-2.80.
CURRENCIES
The news that talks between France and Germany on the Euro debt crisis has added downside pressure on the Euro (1.3718) which has come off from yesterday's high of 1.3869. A further dip to 1.3650-00 looks likely while below 1.3800. Dollar-Yen (76.75) remains flat in a narrow range of 76.60-90 over the last several sessions. The Euro-Yen Cross (105.27) has come off from yesterday's high of 106.53 and looks bearish for further fall to 104 or even lower.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9061) is bullish. It has some Resistance near 0.9100 and a strong break above it would open doors for further rise to 0.9200-300. Cable (1.5734) has found strong Resistance near 1.5850 and can now fall to 1.5630-00 on a strong break below 1.5700. Aussie (1.0180) fell sharply and extend its fall to 1.0120-00 today. Importantly there is a good Double-Top formation seen on 4-hr chart and Aussie could be bearish for a fall to 0.9900-0.9850 on a strong break below 1.0100.
The Asian currencies are trading weak. The Korean-Won is trading near 1141 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2709. Dollar-Rupee had closed yesterday at 49.15/16 and can rise to 49.25-30 or even higher today given the overall strength in the Dollar.
INTEREST RATES
Brazil cut interest rate by 50bps to 11.5% in the second consecutive meeting. The slash was lead by weak global economic outlook.
Global bond prices came off following the major International financial markets. In the US, treasuries yields has increased across all maturities between 1bps to 3bps with far end tenors are increasing more, 2Y remained stable at 0.27%, 5Y to 0.63% 1.06%(+1bps) and 30Y to 3.19% (+3bps). German bunds were not exceptional, yields spiked up more as compare to its US counterpart, 2Y inched up to 0.63%(+5bps) and 30Y to 2.81% (+5bps). We expect the bunds yields to escalate further.
In India, 10Y GOI yields moved to 8.77%, down from its weekly high of 8.80% but added 2bps during last intraday.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 8:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur en 16:00uur nieuws uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Beurs Japan zakt weg, Nikkei 225 op -1.00%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd onder druk, downtrend, 1.36900.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 20 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Akzo Nobel, cijfers KW3
- Nutreco, trading update KW3
- Sligro, trading update KW3
- Wavin, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, werkloosheid, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 15 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 20 oktober: Spaanse en Franse veilingen staatsobligaties.
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4266
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 21-10-2011
Beleggers op Wall Street waren gisteren hele dag in twijfel over de Europese top komend weekeinde, maar kregen moed na de Frans-Duitse aankondiging van een extra topoverleg. Dell voelt het effect van de overstromingen in Thailand.
De indexen eindigden donderdag de handelsdag verdeeld. Dow Jones-index sloot op 11.541,78 punten, een winst van 0,32%. De S&P500 won 0,46%, wat leidde tot een slotstand van 1215,39 punten. De Nasdaq verloor de Nasdaq eindigde op 2598,62 punten, 0,21% lager dan het slot van woensdag.
De handelsdag begon met publicatie van een meevallend cijfer over het aantal nieuwe aanvragen voor werkloosheidsuitkeringen. Vorige week daalde dit aantal met zesduizend tot 409.000. Economen die vooraf waren geraadpleegd door Dow Jones gingen uit van een afname met vierduizend. Het had weinig effect, beleggers hebben de blik op Europa gericht.
Onenigheid tussen Duitsland en Frankrijk over de rol van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) bij de schuldencrisis, dreigde te leiden tot uitstel van het topoverleg zondag. Alle indexen doken in het rood. Beter dan verwachte bedrijfscijfers konden het tij niet keren.
De stemming sloeg pas om na de Frans-Duitse verklaring. Beide landen kondigden enkele uren voor het sluiten van de handel aan dat er een nieuwe Europese top komt, waar ze een allesomvattend plan voor de schuldencrisis zullen voorleggen. De top zondag gaat door, maar is alleen ter voorbereiding op het nieuwe topoverleg dat waarschijnlijk woensdag wordt gehouden.
Uitblinker binnen de S&P500 was de regionale bank Fifth Third Bancorp dat 9,1% hoger eindigde nadat de nettowinst in het derde kwartaal bijna verdubbelde. Creditcardbedrijf American Express zag een beter dan verwachte winst nauwelijks beloond worden, het aandeel had last van een aanpassing van het koersdoel door een analist (+0,13%).
Computerbedrijf Dell trok de Nasdaq naar beneden, het bedrijf merkt problemen met de toelevering van onderdelen als gevolg van de overstromingen in Thailand (-5,35%). Grootste daler onder de Dow-fondsen was Intel, dat woensdag nog sterk won vanwege optimistische vooruitzichten en donderdag 2,6% inleverde.
De regeringsleiders van de zeventien eurolanden zullen volgende week nog een top houden in Brussel. Het lukt ze niet dit weekend al tot een allesomvattend akkoord over de aanpak van de eurocrisis te komen.
Franse en Duitse woordvoerders hebben dat bekendgemaakt na afloop van een telefoongesprek tussen bondskanselier Angela Merkel en president Nicolas Sarkozy. De tweede top wordt uiterlijk woensdag gehouden.
Merkel en Sarkozy zijn er niet in geslaagd hun meningsverschillen over het opkrikken van het Europese noodfonds op te lossen.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren lager gesloten, gedrukt door zorgen over de Europese schuldencrisis, een dalend consumentenvertrouwen in de eurozone en na opmerkingen van een IMF-woordvoerder over een verdere verslechtering van de wereldwijde economische vooruitzichten.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 2,5% lager op 2.271,77 De DAX-30 daalde 2,5% tot 5.766,48, de CAC-40 sloot 2,3% lager op 3.084,07 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,2% op 5.384,68.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag hoger gesloten, door nieuwe twijfels over de haalbaarheid van een gedegen oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
Ook de Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten, terwijl de afwachtende houding in aanloop naar het weekend aanhield, gaf het nieuws uit Libie dat Moammar Kadafi gevonden is een korte impuls.
De AEX-index sloot donderdag 0,8% lager op 299,01 punten, de Midkap verloor 1,6% op 474,53 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 1,5% lager op 424,51 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren gedaald, vooral door de zwakke data over het Amerikaanse brandstofverbruik en zorgen over de gevolgen van de eurocrisis.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie, die donderdag expireerde, sloot op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,81, of 0,9%, lager op $85,30. De decemberfuture verloor $0,22 op $86,07.
Millions mistakenly take education tax credits
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) More than 2 million Americans received education tax credits in error last year, according to a watchdog report issued Thursday, at a total cost to taxpayers: $3.2 billion.
The report, from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, finds that Recovery Act education tax credits have been awarded to individuals who don't have Social Security numbers, are in prison or are unable to prove they attend an institution of higher learning.
The Internal Revenue Service disputes the report's findings.
Dubbed the American Opportunity Tax Credit, the benefits were authorized in 2009 as part of the economic stimulus package, and max out at $2,500 for eligible individuals.
Almost 9 million taxpayers received $15.5 billion in American Opportunity Tax Credits in 2009, according to the IRS. But the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration said a substantial number of those claims are invalid. The biggest problem: 1.7 million taxpayers received $2.6 billion in credits, despite the IRS having "no supporting documentation that these taxpayers had attended an eligible institution."
They tried to deduct what?!
Students without Social Security numbers received $103 million in education credits. And 370,924 taxpayers who were not in school for a long-enough time period, or were enrolled in graduate programs, received $550 million.
Meanwhile, 250 prisoners erroneously received $255,879 in tax credits.
"The IRS does not have effective processes to identify taxpayers who claim erroneous education credits," J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, said in a statement.
Libya set to get back $37 billion from U.S.
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- Even before Moammar Gadhafi's death Thursday, the Treasury Department was already starting to thaw some $37 billion worth of frozen Libyan assets to make them available to the new government in Tripoli.
The new Libyan government will get all the money. Eventually.
Earlier this year, the United States froze its piece of what some analysts believe to be as much as $150 billion in assets that had been available to the Gadhafi regime around the world.
Outside of the United States, those assets range from real estate to stakes in the Italian bank UniCredit, the British publisher Pearson, which owns the Financial Times, and Italy's soccer club Juventus. In September, the United Nations gave the United States the green light to release $1.5 billion in U.S.-held Libyan assets as humanitarian aid to the Transitional National Council, which was recognized as the new government of Libya in July. So far $700 million has been distributed, according to Treasury.
"We remain in close contact with the TNC, the State Department and our international partners, and are committed to releasing assets frozen worldwide in a manner consistent with the wishes of the Government of Libya," a Treasury spokeswoman said.
Last month, Treasury also partially lifted some Libya sanctions. That opened the door for U.S. companies and individuals to do business with the Libyan National Oil Corp. and other companies in Libya, as long as the transactions don't benefit anyone affiliated with the Gadhafi regime.
The question of what to do with the frozen assets has been a big talker in Congress, especially in the wake of mounting budget deficits that have only widened with years of navigating conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
Some lawmakers want to use frozen Libyan assets to reimburse NATO countries for military operations. Others want to link frozen assets to Libyan cooperation with investigations into Gadhafi-era terrorist attacks, according to a Congressional Research Service report released Sept. 29.
Sen. John McCain told CNN on Thursday that, during his visit to Tripoli a few weeks ago, new government officials told him they're willing to reimburse the United States for its role in helping end the Gadhafi regime. So far, that tab has run about $1.2 billion, according to Pentagon and State Department officials.
"Obviously, it's their money," said McCain, in Arizona Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. "They are willing to reimburse us and our allies. They're obviously are going to be a very wealthy country."
The Transitional National Council has been lobbying for months for a broader release of frozen funds for its use.
And international financial analysts say that, using Iraq as an example, the United States will try to release those funds, which will likely go first to reconstruction, as soon as possible.
"It's anyone's guess on how quickly we can free that up, but they'll probably move pretty quickly," said Glenn Simpson, a senior fellow in corruption and transnational crime at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
The Congressional Research Service report said the Transitional National Council will be under pressure to maintain order and support for the new regime.
"While a lively political atmosphere has emerged in opposition-controlled areas, political support for the TNC among the broader population may be contingent on the council's ability to provide basic services and financial support via salaries and subsidies," the report stated.
Indeed, the report suggested that the transition period will require "sustained attention and resources beyond the scope of the current fighting."
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36920, om 23:00uur 1.37820, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 900.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87130, om 23:00uur 0.87250, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 110.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22270, om 23:00uur 1.23170, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1100.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57110, om 23:00uur 1.57900, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 890.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.700, om 23:00uur 76.800, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 100.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02450, om 23:00uur 1.01500, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 950.
How Does Europe Borrow Dollars From The Fed?
(CNBC) The European Central Bank tapped a foreign exchange swap facility with the Federal Reserve earlier this month, borrowing $500 million. In exchange, the ECB puts up collateral of Euros worth around $500 million.
The ECB wants the dollars so it can lend them out to European banks, which have been having trouble borrowing dollars at affordable rates due to fears about their financial health.
But it’s worth taking a moment to pay attention to what actually happens mechanically. Because the way we talk about these swap facilities can create the illusion that somehow we’re sending boatloads full of dollars overseas and that the ECB is then sending us boatloads full of euros.
Would-be pirates will be disappointed to hear that there are no currency flotillas crossing back and forth on the Atlantic.
What’s really happening takes place, for the most part, down on Maiden Lane in Manhattan’s financial district. That’s where the headquarters of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is located. (You can read the actual swap agreement right here.)
Like most interbank transfers these days, everything is done electronically.
When the ECB wants dollars, it gives notice to the New York Fed. The notice contains how many dollars the ECB wants, when it wants them, what the exchange rate is at the time, when it will pay back the dollars, and what the interest rate will be.
The interest rate is always one percent plus something called the Overnight USD Indexed Swap Rate. When the ECB last borrowed, it agreed to a 1.09 percent rate. (It’s very telling that only the ECB has to pay interest. There’s no price for the Fed getting to hold euros.)
Next—and this is important—nothing happens. Not really, that is.
Nothing moves anywhere. No currency flotillas leave for the high seas.
All that happens is that an account at the NY Fed that the ECB has designated as its swap account gets credited with the dollars. This account is really just a line on a spreadsheet in a computer in that Fed building on Maiden Lane. Crediting the account just means that someone enters numbers into a spreadsheet.
At the same time, the ECB enters numbers onto a spreadsheet housed in a computer in Frankfurt, Germany, where the ECB is headquartered.
Those numbers represent Euros that are now “in” an account for the NY Fed.
Neither the dollars nor the Euros come from anywhere. They aren’t moved or debited from anywhere. They are invented right on the spot with a few taps on the key pad. And that’s all. There’s no printing press fired up to make new dollars or euros.
This is sometimes called “fiat money.” But that makes it sound as if some command from a sovereign created the money. It’s really closer to “keyboard money,” since it is created by data entry in a computer. While the swap is outstanding—a period which can last for up to 88 days—the ECB can lend the dollars in its account to European banks. It does this simply by telling the NY Fed that it wants to credit the account of a European bank and debit its account. This all happens, again, by someone typing the data into a computer.
Flash forward to the maturity date—the date when the swap is supposed to be unwound. On that day, the Fed simply zeros out the ECB’s account. This means there are no dollars left in it to be lent out to banks, although that’s really just a metaphor. What it really means is that the Fed will not credit the accounts European banks if asked to do so out of the zero’d out account. If the ECB’s account on the maturity date has the right amount in it, then the swap is closed off. If there’s a shortfall, then a new swap is created to represent this amount. This means that it’s pretty much impossible for the ECB to default on this loan, since any shortfall is just rolled over into a new loans.
Why might there be a shortfall? Remember, the ECB is borrowing dollars so that it can lend them out to European banks. If those banks haven’t repaid those loans, it must “purchase” the dollars from elsewhere—most likely other banks.
What’s more, the ECB must pay interest on the swap—which means that it must always purchase a few dollars more than it borrowed or collect those dollars in interest from the banks it lent to. If it doesn’t purchase the dollars or get those interest payments, you get a shortfall.
By the way, there’s nothing in the swap agreement about what happens if the Fed doesn’t have the euros to refund the ECB. That’s because it is impossible for the Fed not to “have” those euros. You see, the ECB created the euros “held” as collateral for the loan by entering data on a spreadsheet. As far as I can tell, there is no provision at all for the Fed to “draw” from the “account” in which the euros are held.
They just “sit” there—although, again, since its just numbers on a spreadsheet, nothing is physically sitting anywhere.
To be honest, I don’t think there is an economic point to the existence of the Fed account with the ECB. What do we care if there is a spreadsheet in Frankfurt that represents the conceptual Fed possession of a bunch of euros? I suspect the reason for this is entirely legal and optical. It’s good for all the central bankers to be able to tell the world that these loans are fully collateralized. Depending on how you read the regulations, the Fed may even be required to be able to claim it has collateral for the loans—even if that collateral is just a line entry on a spreadsheet in a computer housed in the very central bank that is borrowing dollars. I’m not even 100 percent confident that anyone in Frankfurt does enter the numbers into a spreadsheet. Why would they? There’s no point at all to having them entered and automatically erased at the end of the swap.
And since the Fed doesn’t use those euros during the period of the swap, there’s no need to keep track of how many are in the account. If you’re a Frankfurt central banking clerk, why not just take a smoke break instead of opening the computer file that has this totally made up account in it?
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. The Dow (11541.78) was up 0.325 while the Nasdaq (2598.62) was down 0.21%. The market is waiting for the outcome of the EU summit this weekend which could decide the further direction of the market from current levels going forward. However, we remain bearish on the market.
The Asian markets are also trading mixed. Australia (4227.50, up 0.49%), Shanghai (2335.84, up 0.19%) and Hong Kong (18012.79, up 0.17%) while Nikkei (8675.60, down 0.08%) and Taiwan (7234.34, down 0.12%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (16936.89, down 148.45 points) and Nifty (5091.90, down 47.25 points). Both indices can fall further in the coming days.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (86.55) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 84.22. However, the bigger picture is weak with strong Resistance in 88-90 region which is holding well and we expect a fresh fall in the coming days/weeks to 80 or even 70 on the downside.
Gold (1627.10) is continuing to trade lower and is keeping up the chances of testing 1570-50 on the downside.
Silver (30.73) is contiuing to trade lowe. The Wedge pattern is getting confirmed and the market should now be getting ready to see a sharp fall to 24-23 in the coming days/weeks. Some Support is seen at 29.
Copper (3.18) fell further and sharply yesterday. It is keeping up our bearish view intact for a further fall to 2.80-60 region.
CURRENCIES
Seems the market is fatigued after the whipsaw movements of the last few days. The Euro (1.3780) is stabilising a bit after yesterday's sharp bounce. The market will possibly remain in a limbo today because (a) it is the end of the week (b) there is no major data today apart from the German IFO and (c) the market may want to now wait for the weekend EU summit. The IFO, incidentally, is now on a declining trend as can be seen on the page below:
www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml
The Aussie (1.0221), Pound (1.5797) are largely steady after their bounce yesterday. Dollar-Yen (76.77) continues to be comatose, not doing anything.
The big mover is Dollar-Swiss (0.8885) which has fallen sharply today morning to a low of 0.8848, a move which is unusual for Asia. It is a significant move because till yesterday it looked like the Swissy was on a weakening course. This one will need to be watched.
Asian currencies have weakened substantially. The USD-SGD (1.2779) has moved up strongly, breaking the downtrend from the high of 1.3198 seen on 04-Oct. The ADXY has dipped further and quotes near 115.59. Dollar-Rupee (49.80) is quite likely to move further up towards 49.90 today, if not higher.
INTEREST RATES
The global bond market witnessed a mixed performance yesterday. The German bunds prices rallied against fall in US, UK and Japanese bonds.
In the US, 2Y yields remained stable at .027% contrary to 1 bps to 3bps increase in nearer to far end maturities, 5Y yields closed at 1.07% (+1bps) and 30Y at 3.22% (+3bps). Ben, the Fed chief said he has already done the needful on monetary policy front and further fiscal stimulus may be required to pull the economic growth curve.
In Euro area, despite of civil unrest, the Greece PM won the lawmakers confidence for further austerity measures. German bunds yields came off across all maturities, 2Y fell to 0.59%(-4bps), 10Y to 2% (-6 bps) and 30Y to 2.74% (-7bps).
In India, inflation remains a concern despite of several rounds of increase in policy rates. 10Y GOI bonds yields gained 4bps to move to 8.81%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan licht in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0,14%. De AEX futures laten een licht lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd sterk in uptrend 1.38000.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
De indexen eindigden donderdag de handelsdag verdeeld. Dow Jones-index sloot op 11.541,78 punten, een winst van 0,32%. De S&P500 won 0,46%, wat leidde tot een slotstand van 1215,39 punten. De Nasdaq verloor de Nasdaq eindigde op 2598,62 punten, 0,21% lager dan het slot van woensdag.
De handelsdag begon met publicatie van een meevallend cijfer over het aantal nieuwe aanvragen voor werkloosheidsuitkeringen. Vorige week daalde dit aantal met zesduizend tot 409.000. Economen die vooraf waren geraadpleegd door Dow Jones gingen uit van een afname met vierduizend. Het had weinig effect, beleggers hebben de blik op Europa gericht.
Onenigheid tussen Duitsland en Frankrijk over de rol van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) bij de schuldencrisis, dreigde te leiden tot uitstel van het topoverleg zondag. Alle indexen doken in het rood. Beter dan verwachte bedrijfscijfers konden het tij niet keren.
De stemming sloeg pas om na de Frans-Duitse verklaring. Beide landen kondigden enkele uren voor het sluiten van de handel aan dat er een nieuwe Europese top komt, waar ze een allesomvattend plan voor de schuldencrisis zullen voorleggen. De top zondag gaat door, maar is alleen ter voorbereiding op het nieuwe topoverleg dat waarschijnlijk woensdag wordt gehouden.
Uitblinker binnen de S&P500 was de regionale bank Fifth Third Bancorp dat 9,1% hoger eindigde nadat de nettowinst in het derde kwartaal bijna verdubbelde. Creditcardbedrijf American Express zag een beter dan verwachte winst nauwelijks beloond worden, het aandeel had last van een aanpassing van het koersdoel door een analist (+0,13%).
Computerbedrijf Dell trok de Nasdaq naar beneden, het bedrijf merkt problemen met de toelevering van onderdelen als gevolg van de overstromingen in Thailand (-5,35%). Grootste daler onder de Dow-fondsen was Intel, dat woensdag nog sterk won vanwege optimistische vooruitzichten en donderdag 2,6% inleverde.
De regeringsleiders van de zeventien eurolanden zullen volgende week nog een top houden in Brussel. Het lukt ze niet dit weekend al tot een allesomvattend akkoord over de aanpak van de eurocrisis te komen.
Franse en Duitse woordvoerders hebben dat bekendgemaakt na afloop van een telefoongesprek tussen bondskanselier Angela Merkel en president Nicolas Sarkozy. De tweede top wordt uiterlijk woensdag gehouden.
Merkel en Sarkozy zijn er niet in geslaagd hun meningsverschillen over het opkrikken van het Europese noodfonds op te lossen.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren lager gesloten, gedrukt door zorgen over de Europese schuldencrisis, een dalend consumentenvertrouwen in de eurozone en na opmerkingen van een IMF-woordvoerder over een verdere verslechtering van de wereldwijde economische vooruitzichten.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 2,5% lager op 2.271,77 De DAX-30 daalde 2,5% tot 5.766,48, de CAC-40 sloot 2,3% lager op 3.084,07 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,2% op 5.384,68.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag hoger gesloten, door nieuwe twijfels over de haalbaarheid van een gedegen oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
Ook de Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten, terwijl de afwachtende houding in aanloop naar het weekend aanhield, gaf het nieuws uit Libie dat Moammar Kadafi gevonden is een korte impuls.
De AEX-index sloot donderdag 0,8% lager op 299,01 punten, de Midkap verloor 1,6% op 474,53 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 1,5% lager op 424,51 punten.
De olieprijs is gisteren gedaald, vooral door de zwakke data over het Amerikaanse brandstofverbruik en zorgen over de gevolgen van de eurocrisis.
De novemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie, die donderdag expireerde, sloot op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,81, of 0,9%, lager op $85,30. De decemberfuture verloor $0,22 op $86,07.
Millions mistakenly take education tax credits
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) More than 2 million Americans received education tax credits in error last year, according to a watchdog report issued Thursday, at a total cost to taxpayers: $3.2 billion.
The report, from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, finds that Recovery Act education tax credits have been awarded to individuals who don't have Social Security numbers, are in prison or are unable to prove they attend an institution of higher learning.
The Internal Revenue Service disputes the report's findings.
Dubbed the American Opportunity Tax Credit, the benefits were authorized in 2009 as part of the economic stimulus package, and max out at $2,500 for eligible individuals.
Almost 9 million taxpayers received $15.5 billion in American Opportunity Tax Credits in 2009, according to the IRS. But the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration said a substantial number of those claims are invalid. The biggest problem: 1.7 million taxpayers received $2.6 billion in credits, despite the IRS having "no supporting documentation that these taxpayers had attended an eligible institution."
They tried to deduct what?!
Students without Social Security numbers received $103 million in education credits. And 370,924 taxpayers who were not in school for a long-enough time period, or were enrolled in graduate programs, received $550 million.
Meanwhile, 250 prisoners erroneously received $255,879 in tax credits.
"The IRS does not have effective processes to identify taxpayers who claim erroneous education credits," J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, said in a statement.
Libya set to get back $37 billion from U.S.
WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- Even before Moammar Gadhafi's death Thursday, the Treasury Department was already starting to thaw some $37 billion worth of frozen Libyan assets to make them available to the new government in Tripoli.
The new Libyan government will get all the money. Eventually.
Earlier this year, the United States froze its piece of what some analysts believe to be as much as $150 billion in assets that had been available to the Gadhafi regime around the world.
Outside of the United States, those assets range from real estate to stakes in the Italian bank UniCredit, the British publisher Pearson, which owns the Financial Times, and Italy's soccer club Juventus. In September, the United Nations gave the United States the green light to release $1.5 billion in U.S.-held Libyan assets as humanitarian aid to the Transitional National Council, which was recognized as the new government of Libya in July. So far $700 million has been distributed, according to Treasury.
"We remain in close contact with the TNC, the State Department and our international partners, and are committed to releasing assets frozen worldwide in a manner consistent with the wishes of the Government of Libya," a Treasury spokeswoman said.
Last month, Treasury also partially lifted some Libya sanctions. That opened the door for U.S. companies and individuals to do business with the Libyan National Oil Corp. and other companies in Libya, as long as the transactions don't benefit anyone affiliated with the Gadhafi regime.
The question of what to do with the frozen assets has been a big talker in Congress, especially in the wake of mounting budget deficits that have only widened with years of navigating conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
Some lawmakers want to use frozen Libyan assets to reimburse NATO countries for military operations. Others want to link frozen assets to Libyan cooperation with investigations into Gadhafi-era terrorist attacks, according to a Congressional Research Service report released Sept. 29.
Sen. John McCain told CNN on Thursday that, during his visit to Tripoli a few weeks ago, new government officials told him they're willing to reimburse the United States for its role in helping end the Gadhafi regime. So far, that tab has run about $1.2 billion, according to Pentagon and State Department officials.
"Obviously, it's their money," said McCain, in Arizona Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. "They are willing to reimburse us and our allies. They're obviously are going to be a very wealthy country."
The Transitional National Council has been lobbying for months for a broader release of frozen funds for its use.
And international financial analysts say that, using Iraq as an example, the United States will try to release those funds, which will likely go first to reconstruction, as soon as possible.
"It's anyone's guess on how quickly we can free that up, but they'll probably move pretty quickly," said Glenn Simpson, a senior fellow in corruption and transnational crime at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
The Congressional Research Service report said the Transitional National Council will be under pressure to maintain order and support for the new regime.
"While a lively political atmosphere has emerged in opposition-controlled areas, political support for the TNC among the broader population may be contingent on the council's ability to provide basic services and financial support via salaries and subsidies," the report stated.
Indeed, the report suggested that the transition period will require "sustained attention and resources beyond the scope of the current fighting."
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.36920, om 23:00uur 1.37820, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 900.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87130, om 23:00uur 0.87250, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 110.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22270, om 23:00uur 1.23170, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1100.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.57110, om 23:00uur 1.57900, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 890.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.700, om 23:00uur 76.800, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 100.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.02450, om 23:00uur 1.01500, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 950.
How Does Europe Borrow Dollars From The Fed?
(CNBC) The European Central Bank tapped a foreign exchange swap facility with the Federal Reserve earlier this month, borrowing $500 million. In exchange, the ECB puts up collateral of Euros worth around $500 million.
The ECB wants the dollars so it can lend them out to European banks, which have been having trouble borrowing dollars at affordable rates due to fears about their financial health.
But it’s worth taking a moment to pay attention to what actually happens mechanically. Because the way we talk about these swap facilities can create the illusion that somehow we’re sending boatloads full of dollars overseas and that the ECB is then sending us boatloads full of euros.
Would-be pirates will be disappointed to hear that there are no currency flotillas crossing back and forth on the Atlantic.
What’s really happening takes place, for the most part, down on Maiden Lane in Manhattan’s financial district. That’s where the headquarters of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is located. (You can read the actual swap agreement right here.)
Like most interbank transfers these days, everything is done electronically.
When the ECB wants dollars, it gives notice to the New York Fed. The notice contains how many dollars the ECB wants, when it wants them, what the exchange rate is at the time, when it will pay back the dollars, and what the interest rate will be.
The interest rate is always one percent plus something called the Overnight USD Indexed Swap Rate. When the ECB last borrowed, it agreed to a 1.09 percent rate. (It’s very telling that only the ECB has to pay interest. There’s no price for the Fed getting to hold euros.)
Next—and this is important—nothing happens. Not really, that is.
Nothing moves anywhere. No currency flotillas leave for the high seas.
All that happens is that an account at the NY Fed that the ECB has designated as its swap account gets credited with the dollars. This account is really just a line on a spreadsheet in a computer in that Fed building on Maiden Lane. Crediting the account just means that someone enters numbers into a spreadsheet.
At the same time, the ECB enters numbers onto a spreadsheet housed in a computer in Frankfurt, Germany, where the ECB is headquartered.
Those numbers represent Euros that are now “in” an account for the NY Fed.
Neither the dollars nor the Euros come from anywhere. They aren’t moved or debited from anywhere. They are invented right on the spot with a few taps on the key pad. And that’s all. There’s no printing press fired up to make new dollars or euros.
This is sometimes called “fiat money.” But that makes it sound as if some command from a sovereign created the money. It’s really closer to “keyboard money,” since it is created by data entry in a computer. While the swap is outstanding—a period which can last for up to 88 days—the ECB can lend the dollars in its account to European banks. It does this simply by telling the NY Fed that it wants to credit the account of a European bank and debit its account. This all happens, again, by someone typing the data into a computer.
Flash forward to the maturity date—the date when the swap is supposed to be unwound. On that day, the Fed simply zeros out the ECB’s account. This means there are no dollars left in it to be lent out to banks, although that’s really just a metaphor. What it really means is that the Fed will not credit the accounts European banks if asked to do so out of the zero’d out account. If the ECB’s account on the maturity date has the right amount in it, then the swap is closed off. If there’s a shortfall, then a new swap is created to represent this amount. This means that it’s pretty much impossible for the ECB to default on this loan, since any shortfall is just rolled over into a new loans.
Why might there be a shortfall? Remember, the ECB is borrowing dollars so that it can lend them out to European banks. If those banks haven’t repaid those loans, it must “purchase” the dollars from elsewhere—most likely other banks.
What’s more, the ECB must pay interest on the swap—which means that it must always purchase a few dollars more than it borrowed or collect those dollars in interest from the banks it lent to. If it doesn’t purchase the dollars or get those interest payments, you get a shortfall.
By the way, there’s nothing in the swap agreement about what happens if the Fed doesn’t have the euros to refund the ECB. That’s because it is impossible for the Fed not to “have” those euros. You see, the ECB created the euros “held” as collateral for the loan by entering data on a spreadsheet. As far as I can tell, there is no provision at all for the Fed to “draw” from the “account” in which the euros are held.
They just “sit” there—although, again, since its just numbers on a spreadsheet, nothing is physically sitting anywhere.
To be honest, I don’t think there is an economic point to the existence of the Fed account with the ECB. What do we care if there is a spreadsheet in Frankfurt that represents the conceptual Fed possession of a bunch of euros? I suspect the reason for this is entirely legal and optical. It’s good for all the central bankers to be able to tell the world that these loans are fully collateralized. Depending on how you read the regulations, the Fed may even be required to be able to claim it has collateral for the loans—even if that collateral is just a line entry on a spreadsheet in a computer housed in the very central bank that is borrowing dollars. I’m not even 100 percent confident that anyone in Frankfurt does enter the numbers into a spreadsheet. Why would they? There’s no point at all to having them entered and automatically erased at the end of the swap.
And since the Fed doesn’t use those euros during the period of the swap, there’s no need to keep track of how many are in the account. If you’re a Frankfurt central banking clerk, why not just take a smoke break instead of opening the computer file that has this totally made up account in it?
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. The Dow (11541.78) was up 0.325 while the Nasdaq (2598.62) was down 0.21%. The market is waiting for the outcome of the EU summit this weekend which could decide the further direction of the market from current levels going forward. However, we remain bearish on the market.
The Asian markets are also trading mixed. Australia (4227.50, up 0.49%), Shanghai (2335.84, up 0.19%) and Hong Kong (18012.79, up 0.17%) while Nikkei (8675.60, down 0.08%) and Taiwan (7234.34, down 0.12%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (16936.89, down 148.45 points) and Nifty (5091.90, down 47.25 points). Both indices can fall further in the coming days.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (86.55) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 84.22. However, the bigger picture is weak with strong Resistance in 88-90 region which is holding well and we expect a fresh fall in the coming days/weeks to 80 or even 70 on the downside.
Gold (1627.10) is continuing to trade lower and is keeping up the chances of testing 1570-50 on the downside.
Silver (30.73) is contiuing to trade lowe. The Wedge pattern is getting confirmed and the market should now be getting ready to see a sharp fall to 24-23 in the coming days/weeks. Some Support is seen at 29.
Copper (3.18) fell further and sharply yesterday. It is keeping up our bearish view intact for a further fall to 2.80-60 region.
CURRENCIES
Seems the market is fatigued after the whipsaw movements of the last few days. The Euro (1.3780) is stabilising a bit after yesterday's sharp bounce. The market will possibly remain in a limbo today because (a) it is the end of the week (b) there is no major data today apart from the German IFO and (c) the market may want to now wait for the weekend EU summit. The IFO, incidentally, is now on a declining trend as can be seen on the page below:
www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/gerifo.shtml
The Aussie (1.0221), Pound (1.5797) are largely steady after their bounce yesterday. Dollar-Yen (76.77) continues to be comatose, not doing anything.
The big mover is Dollar-Swiss (0.8885) which has fallen sharply today morning to a low of 0.8848, a move which is unusual for Asia. It is a significant move because till yesterday it looked like the Swissy was on a weakening course. This one will need to be watched.
Asian currencies have weakened substantially. The USD-SGD (1.2779) has moved up strongly, breaking the downtrend from the high of 1.3198 seen on 04-Oct. The ADXY has dipped further and quotes near 115.59. Dollar-Rupee (49.80) is quite likely to move further up towards 49.90 today, if not higher.
INTEREST RATES
The global bond market witnessed a mixed performance yesterday. The German bunds prices rallied against fall in US, UK and Japanese bonds.
In the US, 2Y yields remained stable at .027% contrary to 1 bps to 3bps increase in nearer to far end maturities, 5Y yields closed at 1.07% (+1bps) and 30Y at 3.22% (+3bps). Ben, the Fed chief said he has already done the needful on monetary policy front and further fiscal stimulus may be required to pull the economic growth curve.
In Euro area, despite of civil unrest, the Greece PM won the lawmakers confidence for further austerity measures. German bunds yields came off across all maturities, 2Y fell to 0.59%(-4bps), 10Y to 2% (-6 bps) and 30Y to 2.74% (-7bps).
In India, inflation remains a concern despite of several rounds of increase in policy rates. 10Y GOI bonds yields gained 4bps to move to 8.81%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan licht in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0,14%. De AEX futures laten een licht lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd sterk in uptrend 1.38000.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 21 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, september, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, augustus, 09.30 uur
- Dui, ondernemersvertrouwen, oktober, 10.00 uur
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Vrijdag 21 oktober: Griekse T-bills ter waarde van EUR1,625 miljard lopen af.
- Zaterdag 22 oktober: Griekse rentebetalingen van EUR1,059 staan gepland.
- Zondag 23 oktober: Bijeenkomst Europese Raad en top van leiders uit de eurozone.
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financien eurozone.
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12 years 5 months ago #4284
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 24-10-2011
IVM EEN KORTE VAKANTIE, GEEN MARKET UPDATE TOT 31 OKTOBER.
EU-voorzitter Herman van Rompuy laat de mogelijkheid open dat kapitaal van de Europese Centrale Bank wordt ingezet voor het versterken van het Europese noodfonds.
Hij wilde gisterenavond na afloop van de eurotop niet zeggen dat deze optie van tafel is. 'Zeggen dat de ECB op geen enkele manier meer betrokken is, is te veel gezegd', aldus Van Rompuy
Eerder op de dag leek de Franse president Nicolas Sarkozy op dit punt bakzeil te halen. Hij wilde dat het noodfonds zou worden omgevormd tot een bank, waarmee het toegang zou krijgen tot ECB-kredietfaciliteiten. Maar in een gezamenlijke persconferentie met bondskanselier Angela Merkel zei hij de onafhankelijkheid van de centrale bank te respecteren en de ECB niets te willen opleggen.
Van Rompuy bevestigde dat er twee manieren worden onderzocht om de capaciteit van het noodfonds van € 440 mrd te vergroten zonder dat lidstaten extra garanties hoeven af te geven. Hij wilde niet zeggen hoe die varianten eruit zien.
Volgens Brusselse bronnen zijn beide opties erop gerichte beleggers in Zuid-Europese staatsobligaties als banken en verzekeraars een garantie te geven op de hoofdsom. Naar verluidt is de ene variant dat het noodfonds zelf die garanties afgeeft en de andere variant dat er geld van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) wordt ingezet. Van Rompuy zei wel dat de twee opties mogelijk gecombineerd worden.
Op de eurotop is afgesproken dat geen enkele regeringsleider een publiekelijke verklaring over het besprokene zou geven. Alleen Van Rompuy en voorzitter d4rz7é Barroso van de Europese Commissie stonden de pers te woord.
Van Rompuy en Barroso zeiden dat zwakke eurolanden op de extra top van woensdag met ferme beloftes moeten komen voor meer bezuinigingen en hervormingen. Volgens Barroso gaat dat 'niet alleen om Italië'.
Gevraagd of België daar ook bij hoort, antwoordde Van Rompuy: 'Nee, want we zijn al heel blij dat ze een regering krijgen.'
Premier Mark Rutte stelt dat er een belangrijke stap is gezet op weg naar een verzwaring van de positie van de Europese Commissie bij de controle van de begrotingsdiscipline.
Wall Street is vrijdag hoger gesloten, meeliftend op de hoop dat een bijeenkomst van Europese leiders dit weekend zal leiden tot een oplossing voor de schuldencrisis.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,3% hoger op 11.808,79 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 1,9% tot 1.238,25 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,5% won tot 2.637,46 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, door oplevende hoop over een aankomend plan dat een oplossing moet bieden voor de problemen in de eurozone.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot 2,9% hoger op 2.337,51. De DAX-30 steeg 3,6% tot 5.970,96, de CAC-40 sloot 2,8% hoger op 3.171,34 en de FTSE-100 won 1,9% op 5.488,65.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, door een verbetering van het sentiment.
Beleggers leken vrijdag vertrouwen te hebben dat de ontmoeting van Europese leiders die deze zondag plaatsvindt, een concreet plan zal opleveren voor de eurocrisis.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met winst gesloten, waarbij met name hoop over een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis de markt een steun in de rug gaf.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 2,2% hoger op 305,70 punten. De Midkap eindigde met 2,2% winst op 485,00 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,2% hoger op 425,44 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag hoger gesloten, terwijl ook aandelenmarkten in Europa en de Verenigde Staten stegen, vanwege hernieuwd vertrouwen dat dit weekend een oplossing komt voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,33 hoger op $87,40.
Canada Bristles Over Provision in Free-Trade Deal
OTTAWA—Free-trade advocates mostly cheered when the U.S. signed three bilateral trade deals—with Colombia, Panama and South Korea—earlier this month.
But in Canada, long America's biggest trading partner, one of the deals has miffed officials, threatening to further test already strained trade ties between Washington and Ottawa. The final version of the U.S.-Colombia free-trade pact, signed Friday into law by President Barack Obama, includes language that reinstates a surcharge for travelers from Canada and Mexico to the U.S.
Canadian officials tried hard to get that language removed, but ultimately failed. A spokesman for the Canadian Trade Minister, Ed Fast, said Canada was "disappointed" with the decision, and would continue to press U.S. officials to reconsider.
The new expense probably isn't big enough to deter much travel, but it has irked Canadian officials at a time of other recent trade wrangles. The Obama administration has included "Buy America" language in its latest stimulus-spending initiative, threatening to exclude Canadian companies from contracts related to the program. Ottawa had to work hard to win an exemption from similar language in the White House's previous stimulus plan, and has vowed to do the same this time around.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian officials are now working out details of a broad trade and security initiative, aimed at bolstering border security while streamlining legitimate trade and travel between the two countries. Many Canadian critics have said they worry Washington's desire to bolster security along the border may trump Canadian desires to thin out border bureaucracy.
For years, Canadians and Mexicans—partners to the U.S. in the North American Free Trade Agreement—have been exempted from a surcharge for travel to the U.S. With Congress under pressure to reduce the country's trillion-dollar annual deficits, U.S. legislators targeted the exemption as a way to offset revenue expected to be lost from lifting tariffs on Colombian goods, trade analysts said.
As envisaged in the deal, Canada and Mexico travelers to the U.S. will pay an additional $5.50, on top of any air or boat ticket.
A spokeswoman with the U.S. Trade Representative's office stressed Sunday the $5.50 levy doesn't represent a new surcharge specifically aimed at Canadians, but merely the repeal of an exemption provided since 1997 under the U.S. Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, otherwise known as Cobra.
The spokeswoman added she couldn't provide timing as to when Canadians or Mexicans will begin paying the fee, as that falls under the purview of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Typically, airlines, travel agents or other ticket issuers are responsible for collecting such charges.
Hong Kong looks to private IPOs from China
Hong Kong will have to court listings from potentially risky Chinese private enterprises as the wave of initial public offerings by state-owned companies comes to an end, according to the new head of the territory’s market regulator.
Ashley Alder, who took over as head of the Securities & Futures Commission on October 1, said “A greater proportion of listings will consist of privately held companies from mainland China and further afield. This phase of HK’s market’s development is very promising but also poses different risks and regulatory challenges”.
In an interview with the Financial Times he said: “We will continue to focus on the vital gatekeeping role of IPO sponsors ... and be rigorous about high disclosure standards.”
Hong Kong has largely managed to avoid the accounting scandals that have tarnished some Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Unlike US exchanges, which do not scrutinise so-called “backdoor listings” via the acquisition of an already publicly traded company, the Hong Kong stock exchange treats such deals as if they were new IPOs. Mr Alder said: “Hong Kong’s key advantage is its rule of law, legal system and the certainty this gives to all financial market participants.
“This is virtually unique in Asia and we cannot squander it”.
He also talked about the SFC’s new initiatives in controversial areas such as short selling and rules to help avoid the pitfalls that have befallen other exchanges that have listed Chinese companies.
The SFC has also recently introduced new rules intended to enhance disclosure of net short-selling positions on stocks included in the territory’s two main indices – as well as other selected financial company shares – provided the position exceeds either HK$30m or 0.02 per cent of the company’s issued share capital. Other exchanges have moved to implement outright bans on short-selling – a technique investors use to profit from falling share prices.
Other related “speed bumps” in Hong Kong include bans on naked short-selling, in which investors short shares they have not borrowed, and the up-tick rule that prevents shorting of stocks whose prices are already falling.
“Short-selling bans elsewhere are limited and the jury is out as to their effectiveness save perhaps in more extreme situations. Short selling under [Hong Kong’s] rules is basically a legitimate market activity,” Mr Alder said. “[But] we are sensitive to the fact that we are living in extraordinary times for the markets and will keep the position under review.”
Mr Alder, who left the Hong Kong office of UK law firm Herbert Smith to take up his new post, said one of his most important tasks was to ensure that the territory “has critical mass in renminbi products”.
Hong Kong has played an important role in pilot projects intended to promote the “internationalisation” of the renminbi, which cannot be freely traded. Last week, Shanghai-based Baosteel became the first mainland company to announce a renminbi-denominated “dim sum” bond in the territory, after similar issues by the Chinese government, banks and western multinationals.
Mr Alder was formerly an SFC executive director a decade ago. “Since I was last at the SFC the agenda has changed quite radically from one focused on the aftermath of the dot com bust and the demise of Worldcom and Enron,” he said. “Now discussions are dominated by global systemic risk and stability.”
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37930, om 23:00uur 1.38650, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 720.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.86900, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 340.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22650, om 23:00uur 1.22400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 250.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58000, om 23:00uur 1.59400, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1400.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.750, om 23:00uur 76.200, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 550.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01550, om 23:00uur 1.00950, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
Weekly Review and Outlook
QE3 Talk Stole the Show from EU Summit and Dollar Tumbled
Finance markets struggled in range for most of the week and the situation of European debt crisis remained unclear. Supposedly, we should get something concrete after this Sunday's EU summit but the hope was dented as a second summit was called for this Wednesday. Decisions would be made on Wednesday and the summit on Sunday would most probably be a non-event. However, the markets experienced some drastic developments towards to the end as the speculation of QE3 from Fed suddenly resurfaced. The talk of QE3, as triggered by comments from Fed officials, sent DOW sharply higher to close at 11808, way above the 10404 low set in early October. Dollar was sold off across the board and even dived to new record low against the Japanese yen. The significance of the development is that we're now possibly facing sustainable rally in risks and persistent weakness in dollar ahead.
Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo's call for resuming large scale purchases of mortgage backed securities was seriously taken by the markets, possibly because Tarullo rarely comments on monetary policy. Fed Vice Chairman Yellen noted that the scale of Fed's Operation Twist is limited by the amount of the short-term securities and buying a large portion of long-term securities “could potentially have adverse effects on market functioning.” And thus, “securities purchases across a wide spectrum of maturities might become appropriate if evolving economic conditions called for significantly greater monetary accommodation." Chicago Fed Evans called for further stimulus and proposed to continue until either unemployment falls below 7% or medium term inflation outlook rises above 3%. This was agreed by Yellen as "potentially promising". Boston Fed Rosengren said more asset purchases are "certainly a possibility". St. Louis Fed Bullard also said a third round of quantitative easing was "still on the table" if conditions should worsen.
We had much rumors and headlines flying around about EU summit and the so called comprehensive package to solve the debt crisis. The messaged were conflicting and confusing. But no matter what politicians and newspapers said, the key is, Europeans leaders are still divided on many issues, and most importantly, the way to beef up the EFSF bailout fund, bank recapitalization plan and how much of a write-down to Greek bondholders would be needed. We won't be speculating on what the outcome would be, as like many of the market participants, we're tired of hearing rumors all the time. We're quite sure that nothing concrete will be delivered on Sunday. For Wednesday? Probably yes, Probably no. Though, even the decisions could be delayed yet again, we're quite confident that they would be made before the G20 meeting on November 3-4 in Canne. So for the time being, let's wait and see and focus on trading the QE3 rumors first.
Other than Fed's QE3 speculation, another key development last week was Japan's approval of the JPY 12T extra budget plan. Among that, JPY 2T would be used in measures to help the economy contends with a strong yen. The measures are viewed by some analysts as a sign that the Japanese government is increasingly resigned to adapt the economy to a strong yen, rather than fighting yen's appreciation. The plan also encourages companies to embrace the strong yet by offering support for overseas acquisitions. Also, markets are seeing less chance of concerted G7 intervention, like what happened in March. So, a focus ahead will be on whether USD/JPY would extend the current decline towards 70 psychological level and how Japan will react when that happens.
The Week Ahead
EU summit will continue to dominate headlines this week. But we speculate that QE3 talks would be the main driving force in the markets. A number of important economic data will be released from US including Q3 GDP and markets could embrace weak data for increasing chance of QE3. Originally, we thought DOW would face strong resistance from 11862 and reverse. But Friday's strong rally instead argues that 11862 would likely be taken out with ease this week. This will be a main technical focus which, when happens, should trigger deeper selloff in dollar. Also, if risk rally does extend, the main focus will be on which commodity currency would gain most. And that would very much depend on event including Australia PPI and CPI, RBNZ and NZ CPI, BoC and retail sales. For more on BoC and RBNZ, Both BoC and RBNZ Will Stay on the Sideline.
• Monday: Australia PPI; China HSBC PMI Manufacturing; Eurozone Flash PMIs; New Zealand CPI
• Tuesday: German Gfk consumer sentiment; Canada retail sales, BoC rate decision; US S&P house price, consumer confidence
• Wednesday: Australia CPI; US durable goods, new home sales; RBNZ rate decision, NZ trade balance
• Thursday: Japan retail sales, BoJ rate decision; German CPI, Eurozone M3; US GDP, pending home sales;
• Friday: Japan CPI; Swiss KOF; US personal income and spending
Technical Highlights
The anticipated reversal in DOW didn't materialize and instead, it managed to stay firm above 55 days EMA and is now moving away from it. Friday's rally indicates that whole rise from 10404.49 is still in progress and will likely take out 11862.53 key resistance. In that case, DOW would likely have a test on 12753.89/12876.00 resistance zone. A break of 11296.12 is needed to signal reversal or we'll now stay cautiously bullish.
Dollar index's fall resumed after consolidation and reached as low as 76.23. 76.06 support now looks vulnerable and sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 72.69 has finished with three waves up to 79.838. And in such case, deeper decline would be seen to retest 72.69 low. Also, the corrective structure of rebound form 72.69 to 79.838 will also suggest that whole down trend from 88.70 is not over yet. In any case, we'll now stay cautiously bearish in dollar index as long as 77.552 minor resistance holds.
AUD/NZD's rebound from 1.2317 extended further last week and remained firm so far. Further rise will remain in favor and might target 61.8% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2317 at 1.3229. However, firstly, the fall from 1.3793 looks impulsive. Secondly, the rebound from 1.2317 looks corrective. That is, rebound from 1.2317 could indeed be a correction only. Hence, while we're preferring Aussie over Kiwi in near term, we'd be cautious on sudden reversal in strength. And, a break of 1.2700 should turn the cross bearish and shift favors back to Kiwi.
AUD/CAD has be bounded in triangle consolidation since reaching 1.0555 back in June. The rebound from 0.9937 is impressive so far and could extend further. But we'd be cautious on reversal as AUD/CAD approaches 1.0516/0555 resistance zone. A break below 1.0312 should turn bias back to the downside for another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern. So in short, Aussie is slightly preferred against both Kiwi and Loonie in near term. But we won't surprise to see Aussie lose strength after the next rise.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY finally had a downside breakout last week and made new record low at 75.80 before recovering. Some consolidations might be seen initially this week but recovery should be limited by 76.60 minor resistance and bring another fall. Below 75.80 will target 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, a break of 76.60 will turn focus back to 77.48 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 77.48 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher on Friday. The Dow (11808.79) was up 2.31%. Nasdaq (2637.46) was up 1.49%. Resistance is seen at 11900 on the Dow and 2700 on the Nasdaq which needs to be watched.
The Asian markets are trading higher except for the Shanghai (2314.64) which is trading lower by 0.11%. Australia (4285.50, up 1.95%), Nikkei (8798.81, 1.38%), Hong Kong (18544, up 2.88%) and Taiwan (7429.41, up 2.43%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16785.64, down 151.25 points) and Nifty (5049.95, down 41.95 points) had closed lower on Friday but can bounce back today following the other markets. However, the bigger picture is still weak.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (88.03) has bounced back above in to the 88-90 Resistance region. It needs to break above 90 to wipe out the downside pressure. While below 90, we see a threat of a fall once again to 80 or even lower in the coming weeks.
Gold (1643) is not gaining strength for a bounce back above 1650. There could be chances of Gold being ranged 1600-1700 for some time. Within this range our bias remains bearish and we expect a break and dip below 1600 towards 1550.
Silver (31.44) has bounced back above 31. However, it has important Resistance in 32-33 region and it needs to see a strong rise past 33 to wipe out the downside threat. While below 33, we see good chance of an initial test of 29 on the downside which could be followed by a sharp fall to 25-23 in the coming days/weeks.
Copper (3.21) has bouced back well from near 3.00. The overall picture remains weak with strong Resistance in 3.40-50 region and a test of 3.00-2.80 looks likely in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The market is slightly disappointed about the just concluded weekend EU summit and cautious before the next round of the summit on Wednesday. That is understandable. The Euro (1.3877) dipped to 1.3836 in Asia. But, the charts suggest chances of weakness in the Dollar. The DXY (76.37) can dip towards 75.30. The Euro and the Swiss Franc (0.8828) might see decent gains this week.
The Pound (1.5952), which had surprised on the upside on Friday, may continue to rise towards 1.6045 this week. It seems the Pound and the Swissy are gaining more on the expense of the Euro rather than anything else. The Aussie (1.0358) too is trading strong.
Even the Yen (76.26) is relatively strong, despite warnings of intervention by the Japanese finance minister. Surprisingly, the Yen is strong despite a rise in the Nikkei today.
The Asian currencies area little stronger today compared to Friday. The USD-SGD trades near 1.2710 compared to a high of 1.2815 on Friday. The Korean Won trades stronger near 1138.20. Dollar-Rupee, which closed at 50.02 on Friday, could dip a little towards 49.9-75 this week.
INTEREST RATES
The 2Y German bund and US bond yield differential has increased by 3bps to 0.39%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan in de lift, Nikkei 225 op +1.68%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. Ondanks besluitloosheid Eur/Usd vlak op 1.38907.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
DINSDAG 25 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Imtech, trading update KW3
- Kas Bank, cijfers KW3
- KPN, cijfers KW3
- Macintosh, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, consumentenvertrouwen GfK, augustus, 08.00 uur
- VS, Case-Shiller huizenprijzenindex, augustus, 15.00 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Conference Board, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 26 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Heineken, trading update KW3
- Mediq, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 21 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, duurzame goederen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, Nieuwe huizenverkopen, september, september, 16.00 uur
DONDERDAG 27 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aalberts industries, cijfers KW3
- ASMI, cijfers KW3
- Besi, cijfers KW3
- CSM, trading update KW3
- Qurius, trading update KW3
- Randstad, cijfers KW3
- Shell, cijfers KW3
- Wessanen, cijfers KW3
- LBI International, cijfers KW3
- PEPR, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, geldgroei, september, 10.00 uur
- EU, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 11.00 uur
- Dui, voorlopige consumentenprijsindex, oktober, 14.00 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 22 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, bbp, KW3, 14.30 uur
- VS, aanstaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 28 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Ballast Nedam, cijfers KW3
- Beterbed, cijfers KW3
- Gamma Holding, trading update KW3
- Spyker cars, trading update KW3
- USG People, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, persoonlijke inkomens en bestedingen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
EU-voorzitter Herman van Rompuy laat de mogelijkheid open dat kapitaal van de Europese Centrale Bank wordt ingezet voor het versterken van het Europese noodfonds.
Hij wilde gisterenavond na afloop van de eurotop niet zeggen dat deze optie van tafel is. 'Zeggen dat de ECB op geen enkele manier meer betrokken is, is te veel gezegd', aldus Van Rompuy
Eerder op de dag leek de Franse president Nicolas Sarkozy op dit punt bakzeil te halen. Hij wilde dat het noodfonds zou worden omgevormd tot een bank, waarmee het toegang zou krijgen tot ECB-kredietfaciliteiten. Maar in een gezamenlijke persconferentie met bondskanselier Angela Merkel zei hij de onafhankelijkheid van de centrale bank te respecteren en de ECB niets te willen opleggen.
Van Rompuy bevestigde dat er twee manieren worden onderzocht om de capaciteit van het noodfonds van € 440 mrd te vergroten zonder dat lidstaten extra garanties hoeven af te geven. Hij wilde niet zeggen hoe die varianten eruit zien.
Volgens Brusselse bronnen zijn beide opties erop gerichte beleggers in Zuid-Europese staatsobligaties als banken en verzekeraars een garantie te geven op de hoofdsom. Naar verluidt is de ene variant dat het noodfonds zelf die garanties afgeeft en de andere variant dat er geld van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) wordt ingezet. Van Rompuy zei wel dat de twee opties mogelijk gecombineerd worden.
Op de eurotop is afgesproken dat geen enkele regeringsleider een publiekelijke verklaring over het besprokene zou geven. Alleen Van Rompuy en voorzitter d4rz7é Barroso van de Europese Commissie stonden de pers te woord.
Van Rompuy en Barroso zeiden dat zwakke eurolanden op de extra top van woensdag met ferme beloftes moeten komen voor meer bezuinigingen en hervormingen. Volgens Barroso gaat dat 'niet alleen om Italië'.
Gevraagd of België daar ook bij hoort, antwoordde Van Rompuy: 'Nee, want we zijn al heel blij dat ze een regering krijgen.'
Premier Mark Rutte stelt dat er een belangrijke stap is gezet op weg naar een verzwaring van de positie van de Europese Commissie bij de controle van de begrotingsdiscipline.
Wall Street is vrijdag hoger gesloten, meeliftend op de hoop dat een bijeenkomst van Europese leiders dit weekend zal leiden tot een oplossing voor de schuldencrisis.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,3% hoger op 11.808,79 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 1,9% tot 1.238,25 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,5% won tot 2.637,46 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, door oplevende hoop over een aankomend plan dat een oplossing moet bieden voor de problemen in de eurozone.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot 2,9% hoger op 2.337,51. De DAX-30 steeg 3,6% tot 5.970,96, de CAC-40 sloot 2,8% hoger op 3.171,34 en de FTSE-100 won 1,9% op 5.488,65.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, door een verbetering van het sentiment.
Beleggers leken vrijdag vertrouwen te hebben dat de ontmoeting van Europese leiders die deze zondag plaatsvindt, een concreet plan zal opleveren voor de eurocrisis.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met winst gesloten, waarbij met name hoop over een oplossing voor de Europese schuldencrisis de markt een steun in de rug gaf.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 2,2% hoger op 305,70 punten. De Midkap eindigde met 2,2% winst op 485,00 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,2% hoger op 425,44 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag hoger gesloten, terwijl ook aandelenmarkten in Europa en de Verenigde Staten stegen, vanwege hernieuwd vertrouwen dat dit weekend een oplossing komt voor de Europese schuldencrisis.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,33 hoger op $87,40.
Canada Bristles Over Provision in Free-Trade Deal
OTTAWA—Free-trade advocates mostly cheered when the U.S. signed three bilateral trade deals—with Colombia, Panama and South Korea—earlier this month.
But in Canada, long America's biggest trading partner, one of the deals has miffed officials, threatening to further test already strained trade ties between Washington and Ottawa. The final version of the U.S.-Colombia free-trade pact, signed Friday into law by President Barack Obama, includes language that reinstates a surcharge for travelers from Canada and Mexico to the U.S.
Canadian officials tried hard to get that language removed, but ultimately failed. A spokesman for the Canadian Trade Minister, Ed Fast, said Canada was "disappointed" with the decision, and would continue to press U.S. officials to reconsider.
The new expense probably isn't big enough to deter much travel, but it has irked Canadian officials at a time of other recent trade wrangles. The Obama administration has included "Buy America" language in its latest stimulus-spending initiative, threatening to exclude Canadian companies from contracts related to the program. Ottawa had to work hard to win an exemption from similar language in the White House's previous stimulus plan, and has vowed to do the same this time around.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian officials are now working out details of a broad trade and security initiative, aimed at bolstering border security while streamlining legitimate trade and travel between the two countries. Many Canadian critics have said they worry Washington's desire to bolster security along the border may trump Canadian desires to thin out border bureaucracy.
For years, Canadians and Mexicans—partners to the U.S. in the North American Free Trade Agreement—have been exempted from a surcharge for travel to the U.S. With Congress under pressure to reduce the country's trillion-dollar annual deficits, U.S. legislators targeted the exemption as a way to offset revenue expected to be lost from lifting tariffs on Colombian goods, trade analysts said.
As envisaged in the deal, Canada and Mexico travelers to the U.S. will pay an additional $5.50, on top of any air or boat ticket.
A spokeswoman with the U.S. Trade Representative's office stressed Sunday the $5.50 levy doesn't represent a new surcharge specifically aimed at Canadians, but merely the repeal of an exemption provided since 1997 under the U.S. Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, otherwise known as Cobra.
The spokeswoman added she couldn't provide timing as to when Canadians or Mexicans will begin paying the fee, as that falls under the purview of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Typically, airlines, travel agents or other ticket issuers are responsible for collecting such charges.
Hong Kong looks to private IPOs from China
Hong Kong will have to court listings from potentially risky Chinese private enterprises as the wave of initial public offerings by state-owned companies comes to an end, according to the new head of the territory’s market regulator.
Ashley Alder, who took over as head of the Securities & Futures Commission on October 1, said “A greater proportion of listings will consist of privately held companies from mainland China and further afield. This phase of HK’s market’s development is very promising but also poses different risks and regulatory challenges”.
In an interview with the Financial Times he said: “We will continue to focus on the vital gatekeeping role of IPO sponsors ... and be rigorous about high disclosure standards.”
Hong Kong has largely managed to avoid the accounting scandals that have tarnished some Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Unlike US exchanges, which do not scrutinise so-called “backdoor listings” via the acquisition of an already publicly traded company, the Hong Kong stock exchange treats such deals as if they were new IPOs. Mr Alder said: “Hong Kong’s key advantage is its rule of law, legal system and the certainty this gives to all financial market participants.
“This is virtually unique in Asia and we cannot squander it”.
He also talked about the SFC’s new initiatives in controversial areas such as short selling and rules to help avoid the pitfalls that have befallen other exchanges that have listed Chinese companies.
The SFC has also recently introduced new rules intended to enhance disclosure of net short-selling positions on stocks included in the territory’s two main indices – as well as other selected financial company shares – provided the position exceeds either HK$30m or 0.02 per cent of the company’s issued share capital. Other exchanges have moved to implement outright bans on short-selling – a technique investors use to profit from falling share prices.
Other related “speed bumps” in Hong Kong include bans on naked short-selling, in which investors short shares they have not borrowed, and the up-tick rule that prevents shorting of stocks whose prices are already falling.
“Short-selling bans elsewhere are limited and the jury is out as to their effectiveness save perhaps in more extreme situations. Short selling under [Hong Kong’s] rules is basically a legitimate market activity,” Mr Alder said. “[But] we are sensitive to the fact that we are living in extraordinary times for the markets and will keep the position under review.”
Mr Alder, who left the Hong Kong office of UK law firm Herbert Smith to take up his new post, said one of his most important tasks was to ensure that the territory “has critical mass in renminbi products”.
Hong Kong has played an important role in pilot projects intended to promote the “internationalisation” of the renminbi, which cannot be freely traded. Last week, Shanghai-based Baosteel became the first mainland company to announce a renminbi-denominated “dim sum” bond in the territory, after similar issues by the Chinese government, banks and western multinationals.
Mr Alder was formerly an SFC executive director a decade ago. “Since I was last at the SFC the agenda has changed quite radically from one focused on the aftermath of the dot com bust and the demise of Worldcom and Enron,” he said. “Now discussions are dominated by global systemic risk and stability.”
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37930, om 23:00uur 1.38650, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 720.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.86900, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 340.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22650, om 23:00uur 1.22400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 250.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58000, om 23:00uur 1.59400, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1400.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.750, om 23:00uur 76.200, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 550.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01550, om 23:00uur 1.00950, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
Weekly Review and Outlook
QE3 Talk Stole the Show from EU Summit and Dollar Tumbled
Finance markets struggled in range for most of the week and the situation of European debt crisis remained unclear. Supposedly, we should get something concrete after this Sunday's EU summit but the hope was dented as a second summit was called for this Wednesday. Decisions would be made on Wednesday and the summit on Sunday would most probably be a non-event. However, the markets experienced some drastic developments towards to the end as the speculation of QE3 from Fed suddenly resurfaced. The talk of QE3, as triggered by comments from Fed officials, sent DOW sharply higher to close at 11808, way above the 10404 low set in early October. Dollar was sold off across the board and even dived to new record low against the Japanese yen. The significance of the development is that we're now possibly facing sustainable rally in risks and persistent weakness in dollar ahead.
Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo's call for resuming large scale purchases of mortgage backed securities was seriously taken by the markets, possibly because Tarullo rarely comments on monetary policy. Fed Vice Chairman Yellen noted that the scale of Fed's Operation Twist is limited by the amount of the short-term securities and buying a large portion of long-term securities “could potentially have adverse effects on market functioning.” And thus, “securities purchases across a wide spectrum of maturities might become appropriate if evolving economic conditions called for significantly greater monetary accommodation." Chicago Fed Evans called for further stimulus and proposed to continue until either unemployment falls below 7% or medium term inflation outlook rises above 3%. This was agreed by Yellen as "potentially promising". Boston Fed Rosengren said more asset purchases are "certainly a possibility". St. Louis Fed Bullard also said a third round of quantitative easing was "still on the table" if conditions should worsen.
We had much rumors and headlines flying around about EU summit and the so called comprehensive package to solve the debt crisis. The messaged were conflicting and confusing. But no matter what politicians and newspapers said, the key is, Europeans leaders are still divided on many issues, and most importantly, the way to beef up the EFSF bailout fund, bank recapitalization plan and how much of a write-down to Greek bondholders would be needed. We won't be speculating on what the outcome would be, as like many of the market participants, we're tired of hearing rumors all the time. We're quite sure that nothing concrete will be delivered on Sunday. For Wednesday? Probably yes, Probably no. Though, even the decisions could be delayed yet again, we're quite confident that they would be made before the G20 meeting on November 3-4 in Canne. So for the time being, let's wait and see and focus on trading the QE3 rumors first.
Other than Fed's QE3 speculation, another key development last week was Japan's approval of the JPY 12T extra budget plan. Among that, JPY 2T would be used in measures to help the economy contends with a strong yen. The measures are viewed by some analysts as a sign that the Japanese government is increasingly resigned to adapt the economy to a strong yen, rather than fighting yen's appreciation. The plan also encourages companies to embrace the strong yet by offering support for overseas acquisitions. Also, markets are seeing less chance of concerted G7 intervention, like what happened in March. So, a focus ahead will be on whether USD/JPY would extend the current decline towards 70 psychological level and how Japan will react when that happens.
The Week Ahead
EU summit will continue to dominate headlines this week. But we speculate that QE3 talks would be the main driving force in the markets. A number of important economic data will be released from US including Q3 GDP and markets could embrace weak data for increasing chance of QE3. Originally, we thought DOW would face strong resistance from 11862 and reverse. But Friday's strong rally instead argues that 11862 would likely be taken out with ease this week. This will be a main technical focus which, when happens, should trigger deeper selloff in dollar. Also, if risk rally does extend, the main focus will be on which commodity currency would gain most. And that would very much depend on event including Australia PPI and CPI, RBNZ and NZ CPI, BoC and retail sales. For more on BoC and RBNZ, Both BoC and RBNZ Will Stay on the Sideline.
• Monday: Australia PPI; China HSBC PMI Manufacturing; Eurozone Flash PMIs; New Zealand CPI
• Tuesday: German Gfk consumer sentiment; Canada retail sales, BoC rate decision; US S&P house price, consumer confidence
• Wednesday: Australia CPI; US durable goods, new home sales; RBNZ rate decision, NZ trade balance
• Thursday: Japan retail sales, BoJ rate decision; German CPI, Eurozone M3; US GDP, pending home sales;
• Friday: Japan CPI; Swiss KOF; US personal income and spending
Technical Highlights
The anticipated reversal in DOW didn't materialize and instead, it managed to stay firm above 55 days EMA and is now moving away from it. Friday's rally indicates that whole rise from 10404.49 is still in progress and will likely take out 11862.53 key resistance. In that case, DOW would likely have a test on 12753.89/12876.00 resistance zone. A break of 11296.12 is needed to signal reversal or we'll now stay cautiously bullish.
Dollar index's fall resumed after consolidation and reached as low as 76.23. 76.06 support now looks vulnerable and sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 72.69 has finished with three waves up to 79.838. And in such case, deeper decline would be seen to retest 72.69 low. Also, the corrective structure of rebound form 72.69 to 79.838 will also suggest that whole down trend from 88.70 is not over yet. In any case, we'll now stay cautiously bearish in dollar index as long as 77.552 minor resistance holds.
AUD/NZD's rebound from 1.2317 extended further last week and remained firm so far. Further rise will remain in favor and might target 61.8% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2317 at 1.3229. However, firstly, the fall from 1.3793 looks impulsive. Secondly, the rebound from 1.2317 looks corrective. That is, rebound from 1.2317 could indeed be a correction only. Hence, while we're preferring Aussie over Kiwi in near term, we'd be cautious on sudden reversal in strength. And, a break of 1.2700 should turn the cross bearish and shift favors back to Kiwi.
AUD/CAD has be bounded in triangle consolidation since reaching 1.0555 back in June. The rebound from 0.9937 is impressive so far and could extend further. But we'd be cautious on reversal as AUD/CAD approaches 1.0516/0555 resistance zone. A break below 1.0312 should turn bias back to the downside for another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern. So in short, Aussie is slightly preferred against both Kiwi and Loonie in near term. But we won't surprise to see Aussie lose strength after the next rise.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY finally had a downside breakout last week and made new record low at 75.80 before recovering. Some consolidations might be seen initially this week but recovery should be limited by 76.60 minor resistance and bring another fall. Below 75.80 will target 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, a break of 76.60 will turn focus back to 77.48 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 77.48 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher on Friday. The Dow (11808.79) was up 2.31%. Nasdaq (2637.46) was up 1.49%. Resistance is seen at 11900 on the Dow and 2700 on the Nasdaq which needs to be watched.
The Asian markets are trading higher except for the Shanghai (2314.64) which is trading lower by 0.11%. Australia (4285.50, up 1.95%), Nikkei (8798.81, 1.38%), Hong Kong (18544, up 2.88%) and Taiwan (7429.41, up 2.43%) are trading higher. The Sensex (16785.64, down 151.25 points) and Nifty (5049.95, down 41.95 points) had closed lower on Friday but can bounce back today following the other markets. However, the bigger picture is still weak.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (88.03) has bounced back above in to the 88-90 Resistance region. It needs to break above 90 to wipe out the downside pressure. While below 90, we see a threat of a fall once again to 80 or even lower in the coming weeks.
Gold (1643) is not gaining strength for a bounce back above 1650. There could be chances of Gold being ranged 1600-1700 for some time. Within this range our bias remains bearish and we expect a break and dip below 1600 towards 1550.
Silver (31.44) has bounced back above 31. However, it has important Resistance in 32-33 region and it needs to see a strong rise past 33 to wipe out the downside threat. While below 33, we see good chance of an initial test of 29 on the downside which could be followed by a sharp fall to 25-23 in the coming days/weeks.
Copper (3.21) has bouced back well from near 3.00. The overall picture remains weak with strong Resistance in 3.40-50 region and a test of 3.00-2.80 looks likely in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The market is slightly disappointed about the just concluded weekend EU summit and cautious before the next round of the summit on Wednesday. That is understandable. The Euro (1.3877) dipped to 1.3836 in Asia. But, the charts suggest chances of weakness in the Dollar. The DXY (76.37) can dip towards 75.30. The Euro and the Swiss Franc (0.8828) might see decent gains this week.
The Pound (1.5952), which had surprised on the upside on Friday, may continue to rise towards 1.6045 this week. It seems the Pound and the Swissy are gaining more on the expense of the Euro rather than anything else. The Aussie (1.0358) too is trading strong.
Even the Yen (76.26) is relatively strong, despite warnings of intervention by the Japanese finance minister. Surprisingly, the Yen is strong despite a rise in the Nikkei today.
The Asian currencies area little stronger today compared to Friday. The USD-SGD trades near 1.2710 compared to a high of 1.2815 on Friday. The Korean Won trades stronger near 1138.20. Dollar-Rupee, which closed at 50.02 on Friday, could dip a little towards 49.9-75 this week.
INTEREST RATES
The 2Y German bund and US bond yield differential has increased by 3bps to 0.39%.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan in de lift, Nikkei 225 op +1.68%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. Ondanks besluitloosheid Eur/Usd vlak op 1.38907.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 24 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- BinckBank, cijfers KW3
- TomTom, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagerindices, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, augustus, 11.00 uur
DINSDAG 25 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Imtech, trading update KW3
- Kas Bank, cijfers KW3
- KPN, cijfers KW3
- Macintosh, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, consumentenvertrouwen GfK, augustus, 08.00 uur
- VS, Case-Shiller huizenprijzenindex, augustus, 15.00 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Conference Board, oktober, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 26 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Heineken, trading update KW3
- Mediq, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 21 oktober, 13.00 uur
- VS, duurzame goederen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, Nieuwe huizenverkopen, september, september, 16.00 uur
DONDERDAG 27 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aalberts industries, cijfers KW3
- ASMI, cijfers KW3
- Besi, cijfers KW3
- CSM, trading update KW3
- Qurius, trading update KW3
- Randstad, cijfers KW3
- Shell, cijfers KW3
- Wessanen, cijfers KW3
- LBI International, cijfers KW3
- PEPR, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, geldgroei, september, 10.00 uur
- EU, consumentenvertrouwen, oktober, 11.00 uur
- Dui, voorlopige consumentenprijsindex, oktober, 14.00 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 22 oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, bbp, KW3, 14.30 uur
- VS, aanstaande huizenverkopen, september, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 28 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Ballast Nedam, cijfers KW3
- Beterbed, cijfers KW3
- Gamma Holding, trading update KW3
- Spyker cars, trading update KW3
- USG People, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, persoonlijke inkomens en bestedingen, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, oktober, 15.55 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Maandag 24 oktober: Trojka komt mogelijk met rapportage over Griekenland.
- Leiders EU en China bijeen in Tianjin in China.
- Dinsdag 25 oktober: Spaanse veiling T-bills.
- Vrijdag 28 oktober: Italiaanse veiling staatsobligaties.
- Zaterdag 29 oktober: Deadline voor driemaandse review van Spanje door Moody's.
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
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- Jelle
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12 years 5 months ago #4287
by Jelle
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
Replied by Jelle on topic Re: Market Update 24-10-2011
Helemaal gewend aan de market update, en dan is er ineens een week lang geen update! Ik voel detox opkomen....
Fijne vakantie Ed!
Fijne vakantie Ed!
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
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12 years 5 months ago #4294
by Paul
Replied by Paul on topic Re:MARKET UPDATE
Wat zijn de vakantieplannen?
Prettige vakantie in ieder geval!
Prettige vakantie in ieder geval!
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- Edbeleg
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12 years 4 months ago #4406
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 31-10-2011
Italië moet stevig doorpakken en de voorgenomen bezuinigen uitvoeren. Dat zegt voorzitter Jean-Claude Juncker van de eurogroep.
De premier van Luxemburg en voorzitter van de ministers van financiën van de zeventien eurolanden, zei zondag voor de Duitse televisie dat Italië de hervormingen moet doorvoeren, zoals vorige week is afgespoken op de EU-top. Juncker zei verder dat het zinvol is bij China aan te kloppen om in het Europese noodfonds te investeren.
De mogelijke rol van China is president Nicolas Sarkozy van Frankrijk zondag juist op flinke kritiek komen te staan. 'Het is schokkend', zegt secretaris-generaal Martine Aubry van de socialisten, 'De Europeanen tonen hun zwakte door zich tot China te wenden. Hoe kan Europa op deze manier aan China vragen een einde te maken aan d e onderwaardering van hun munt.'
Juncker zei er overigens bij dat Europa geen politieke concessies mag doen voor een eventuele Chinese bijdrage. Hij zei verder dat Europa zich overigens ook zonder financiële hulp van China zal redden.
Wall Street is vrijdag overwegend hoger gesloten, nadat beleggers een pas op de plaats maakten na de stijgingen van een dag eerder toen het plan om de eurocrisis op te lossen bekend werd.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,2% hoger op 12.231,11 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 sloot vlak op 1.285,08 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,1% verloor tot 2.737,15 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag overwegend lager gesloten, omdat beleggers meer kritisch keken naar het reddinsplan voor de eurozone en een Italiaanse obligatieveiling tegenviel.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 0,6% lager op 2.462,36. De DAX-30 steeg 0,1% tot 6.346,19, de CAC-40 sloot 0,6% lager op 3.348,63 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,2% op 5.702,24.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag nipt lager gesloten. Eerdere verliezen verdwenen grotendeels van de borden toen de yields op staatsobligaties uit de periferie van de eurozone stegen en aandelen zakten.
De bunds waren lager geopend, maar herstelden gedeeltelijk toen een Italiaanse obligatieveiling weinig vraag opleverde. Italie veilde in totaal EUR7,9 miljard aan vier staatsleningen, waar het land beoogde EUR8,5 miljard op te halen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met verlies gesloten, na de euforie van donderdag krabden beleggers zich achter de oren.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 0,9% lager op 313,01 punten, de Midkap verloor 0,6% op 496,70 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,1% lager op 429,71 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag lager gesloten. Beleggers waren voorzichtig vanwege de onzekerheid over de details van het Europese reddingsplan voor Griekenland.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,64 lager op $93,22.
IMF mulls how to better help countries under strain
(Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday that it was considering how better to help countries under economic strain because of financial market stress but said it was not targeting particular countries.
The global lender was responding to weekend reports, including one in Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, that said the IMF would create a new short-term lending facility to prevent the current financial crisis in Europe from spreading.
The newspaper, citing unnamed sources, said the IMF was likely to provide funds for countries like Italië and Spain where government bond yields remain at high levels.
In a statement, the IMF said that over the past year it was reviewing existing lending arrangements, building on reforms begun in 2008 and 2009 to add to its tools for responding to crises.
It did not directly respond to the suggestion that it might set up a new lending facility.
"The aim of the review is to enhance the ability of the Fund to mitigate contagion by providing liquidity to countries with relatively strong policies and fundamentals that are affected by heightened global or regional financial market stress," the IMF said.
But it said its efforts were intended to meet potential needs of all its members and were not "targeted at particular countries" and have no indication when it might come to any decisions.
All options in play as MF Global seeks sale: source
(Reuters) - MF Global Holdings Ltd held talks with possible buyers on Sunday with the aim "squarely" on doing a deal, though all options were on the table, a person briefed on the matter said.
A number of interested parties were considering several possible deals, including buying all or parts of the troubled U.S. futures brokerage run by former Goldman executive Jon Corzine, said the source, who requested anonymity.
"The goal is squarely for some sort of M&A transaction," the source said, adding the situation was "fluid".
The pressure is on the company after a week in which it posted a quarterly loss, its shares fell by two-thirds and its credit ratings were cut to junk. MF Global hired Evercore to help find a buyer, separate sources said this past week.
It was unclear how close the company was to a possible deal as discussions stretched through the weekend. MF Global declined to comment.
Since Corzine became chief executive last year, the brokerage has increasingly used its own capital to trade.
MF Global's problems are now rooted in low interest rates and bets made on European sovereign debt, and it is emerging as one of the hardest-hit U.S. financial firms in the fallout from Europe's economic crisis.
The company has reached out to banks including Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Macquarie Group Ltd, State Street Corp and Wells Fargo, a source familiar with the situation said on Friday.
The plunge last week in MF Global's corporate bonds to distressed levels, and in its shares to below $1 at one point on Friday, makes it all the more urgent for the company to come up with some sort of solution before markets open on Monday.
The company, which runs a Futures Commission Merchant and a broker-dealer, was scrambling last week to reassure customers about its stability as signs grew that some of them were withdrawing money.
A drop in a broker's credit rating to junk erodes confidence in its creditworthiness and can then restrict its ability to borrow -- the bedrock of any financial institution -- and fund day-to-day operations.
Corzine took the reins at MF Global after a term as governor of New Jersey.
Long list of dangers ahead for global economy
(Reuters) - Europe's long shadow is tempering a burst of optimism that the United States can escape recession and China achieve a soft landing.
Deep concern persists that European leaders will fall short when they try to flesh out the details of how their rescue fund can tap sufficient resources to backstop Greece and to handle a potential government financing crisis in Italy or Spain.
Europe is looking to emerging economies to provide the extra financial firepower to strengthen the fund four- to five-fold, to about 1 trillion euros, a promise that could materialize at a Group of 20 summit in France on Thursday and Friday.
The response so far from China on strengthening the fund has been very cautious, and market experts want to see a fund with resources twice the size under discussion in Brussels. That has set the stage for possible unsettling disappointment in the days ahead.
"If the absolute amount is not enough, we will be back to the storms. The break in the clouds may only last a few hours," said Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at UBS.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings last week and third-quarter U.S. growth at a solid 2.5 percent, underpinned by surging business investment and a pick-up in consumer spending, have buoyed prospects for the global economy.
The drawdown in inventories in the third quarter also points to solid U.S. growth continuing through the end of the year.
Several Wall Street firms revised up their outlooks. JP Morgan raised its fourth-quarter economic growth forecast to 2.5 percent from 1 percent.
But talk to any economist or market strategist and every positive statement about the economic outlook is heavily hedged with warnings about what could yet go wrong.
The list is long.
Europe probably is already in recession; its politicians could fail to build a strong enough firewall in time to prevent financial contagion; and U.S. consumers are too heavily indebted to support strong growth next year.
Looming in the background are the U.S. budget deficit talks. Risks persist that lawmakers will reach stalemate by the end of the year, which would automatically trigger U.S. fiscal contraction at the start of 2012 if tax cuts and jobless benefits expire.
"The politics are improving in Europe, but the economic data is deteriorating and recession risks are rising. In the United States it is the exact opposite," said Kurt Karl, senior vice president at Swiss Re American Holdings Corp.
Any of these factors could put the brakes on recovery.
FUTURE ACTION
The European Central Bank is widely expected to lay the foundation for an interest rate cut at its meeting on Thursday, citing the economic weakness in the 17-nation currency bloc. Euro zone manufacturing and services data due on Wednesday may confirm the tilt into recession seen in flash PMIs last week.
The ECB probably will also signal it will continue to purchase bonds issued by debt-heavy euro zone countries to promote financial stability, a move that gives leaders more time to finalize details of the debt plan.
Most analysts doubt Italian Mario Draghi will embark on bolder action at his first meeting as ECB president, although there is an outside chance for a rate cut.
Federal Reserve policymakers also are expected to tread cautiously at their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The improved U.S. data diminish the argument for further monetary easing, though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at his news conference on Wednesday is likely to repeat his disappointment at the pace of recovery and explore further options for supporting growth in face of the considerable risks ahead.
Several Fed policymakers have suggested the central bank needs to do more to support housing, the central problem for the U.S. economy.
Employment growth is stuck in a rut and consumers are digging into their savings to spend. As long as the American consumer, who drives 70 percent of all U.S. economic activity, is buried under a mountain of debt -- much of it mortgage debt -- and many houses remain worth less than the mortgage, consumer demand will remain weak and business hiring paltry.
Employment data on Friday is expected to show 95,000 new jobs outside the farm sector were added in October, a slight improvement from the prior month. But payroll growth since April has averaged only 72,000, less than one-third the pace needed to reduce the 9.1 percent jobless rate, and down from a 161,000 average rate in the prior seven months.
Income growth is negative once adjusted for inflation, and household debt loads at 133 percent of disposable income are too high to support much consumption.
"The underlying problem is to find where sustainable spending growth will come from," said David Mann, U.S. economist for Standard Chartered.
Europe in recessionary territory and an impaired U.S. consumer also point to a deceleration in exports from China when its manufacturing index is released on Tuesday, rounding out a picture of a vulnerable world economy.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37930, om 23:00uur 1.38650, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 720.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.86900, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 340.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22650, om 23:00uur 1.22400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 250.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58000, om 23:00uur 1.59400, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1400.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.750, om 23:00uur 76.200, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 550.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01550, om 23:00uur 1.00950, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
Weekly Review and Outlook
Risk Soared, Dollar Tumbled after EU Summit, Trend Sustainability Depends on Fed's Expectation Management
Expectation management proved to be the most important thing in the markets. While the outcomes of the EU summits were undoubtably positively, they were anything ground-breaking. We heard about bank recapitalization, Greek debt haircut and beefing-up of EFSF before. They're not new. But the expectation ahead of the second EU summit was so low that markets cheered those outcomes and risks surged broadly. The development was significant as stocks turned positive for the year while dollar index turned quite bearish. Now, we're entering into another important week with three central bank meeting, G20 summit as well as loads of important economic data. Most importantly, recent comments from Fed officials have set up some expectations for QE3 and we'll see how Bernanke would further manage our expectations with the FOMC statement and press conference this week.
To recap the EU summit, three major initiatives were agreed. Firstly, EU leaders has agreed with Institute of International Finance on a deal that imposes 50% on Greek debts on the second bailout. That's substantially larger haircut than the 21% agreed back in July but was better than the worst case of 60%. The larger write-down should lower Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2020, which is believed to be a financially sustainable level. Secondly, European banks will now be required to raise core tier 1 capital ratio to 9% by and explicit deadline of June 30, 2012. The ratio was significantly higher than the passing mark of 5% of the stress tests in summer. More overall, the capital levels now needed to be calculated after marking down government bond holdings as of September 30. The total amount involved is estimated to be around EUR 106b and banks could tap into EFSF for support in the worst case. Thirdly, the EFSF will be leveraged up by four to five times but the details would be decided in November. It's reported that the boost will be done by using a combination of 'the first loss insurance model' and the 'special purpose vehicle model' (SPV).
There are still much uncertainties around the so called comprehensive package from EU. Firstly, there are still much details to be finalized and there are doubts on where EU could execute the plan. In particular, there should be still much division in opinions on how the EFSF should be leveraged and it's unknown whether as EFSF capacity of EUR 1T is enough to contain the crisis if it spreads to Italy and Spain. Thirdly, a main question is also on whether the 50% haircut in Greek debt is enough if recession in the economy worsen further. But after all, markets seems to be convinced, at least for now, that the measures would stop contagion. And Euro bears seem to be running out of ideas to short the common currency in near term.
Focus should now turn to the G20 summit in Cannes this Thursday and Friday. G20 leaders has explicitly requested Europe to provide a concrete plan before this summit. Not that it's done, the G20 leaders are expected to endorse what EU leaders have done. More importantly, the main focus will be on any agreement from BRIC countries on providing a helping hand on European debt crisis.
Talking about BRIC, another factor that boosted sentiments were the comments from China Premier Wen Jiabao, who signaled change in policies. Wen said the Ministry of Industry is studying "stimulative policies" for smaller companies that're facing global slowdown. And, the officials will made adjustments as a "suitable time and by an appropriate degree", and will maintain reasonable money supply growth. The statement is affirmative to markets' view that China would at least halt tightening measures like rate hike. It also raises the possibility that China would relax credit control towards the end of the year by lowering the reserve-requirement ratio for smaller bank and adopt a rate cut next year.
Look ahead, the three central bank meetings scheduled this week are all important in different ways. Recent comments from Fed officials, from Tarullo, Yellen, Evans and others indicated that some officials are seriously considering restarting the quantitative easing engine, in particular in buying mortgage based-securities. Though, the solid Q3 GDP data seemed to have reduced the urgency for the Fed to do something in November and FOMC could just save the bullet for Q1 next year. Nonetheless, markets should look for affirmation to the chance of QE3 to extend recent risk rally. In addition, there were proposals for Fed to explicitly express that it will keep the policy rate at ultra low level until either unemployment drops below 7% or medium term inflation expectation rises above 3%. FOMC could incorporate similar things in the statement. After all, remember that risk rally started when Tarullo talked about QE and extended on EU summit. That is, should Fed disappoint and dent the hope on further quantitative easing, we would very likely see a deep pull back in risk instead. ECB and RBA meeting would also be interesting ones. There are speculations of rate cut from both central banks but such opinion is far from being dominant. Based on recent rebound in risk markets, we'd lean towards the case for both central banks to stand pat.
Technical Highlights
Before looking into individual markets, we'd like to emphasize that drastic turn in sentiments and developments these two weeks are strongly suggesting that the correction in risk markets that started back in May has finished in October already. Similarly, the corresponding rebound in dollar is likely completed too. So, we're now facing the possibility of new highs in stocks and new low in the weeks ahead. We'd tend to believe the post FOMC reaction this week would be a key factor to affirm or invalidate this case.
DOW jumped to as high as 12284 last week and took out 11862 resistance with ease. The strong close at 12231 suggests that further rally would likely be seen initially this week. The overall development argue that correction from 12876 has completed at 10404 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 6470 to 12876 at 10429. This is affirmed with weekly MACD moving further above the signal line. Near term outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as last week's low of 11682 holds and we'd expect a retest of 12876 resistance soon.
Similar picture is seen in FTSE as it took out 55 weeks EMA with ease last week. The development suggests that pull back from 6105.77 has completed at 4791.01 already after drawing strong support from 50% retracement of 3460.7 to 6105.7 at 4783.2 and 4790 key support. This is affirmed by 55 weeks MACD moving further above signal line. Outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as last week's low of 5465.5 holds and retest of 6105.77 high should be seen in near term.
Dollar index's fall from 79.83 accelerated last week and dropped to as low as 74.72 before closing at 75.09. The development suggests that rebound from 72.69 has completed at 79.83 already and the corrective structure in turn argue that whole down trend from 88.70 is not over. Near term bias will now remain on the downside as long as 76.66 resistance holds and deeper fall should be seen to retest 72.69 first. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole down trend form 88.70 and should target 70.70 record low made back in 2008.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's rise from 0.9387 accelerated to as high as 1.0752 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and break of 1.0764 will target a test on 1.1079 high. On the downside, below 1.0564 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations . But retreat should be contained by 1.0321 support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the medium term outlook in AUD/USD remains bullish as up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is expected to extend further higher. Break of 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8066 to 1.1079 from 0.9387 at 1.1249 next. Meanwhile, a break of 1.0321 support will argue that the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is going to extend further with at least one more falling leg. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual upside breakout.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD soared to as high as 1.4246 last week, just inch below 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145 at 1.4254. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with 1.4108 minor support intact. Break of 1.4254 should bring further rally to 1.4548 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4108 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.3914 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, first of all, current development indicates that rise from 1.1875 is not finished yet. Break of 1.4548 resistance will argue that such rally is resuming for above 1.4939 resistance. Nevertheless, note again that price actions since 1.6039 high are all corrective in nature, which suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in a long term consolidation pattern. And at this point, there isn't any sustainable medium term momentum in any direction yet. Hence, even in case of stronger rally, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY made another record low at 75.65 last week even though downside momentum remained a bit unconvincing. In any case, further decline is still expected in near term as long as 76.31 resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, break of 76.31 will indicate short term bottoming and should bring rebound back towards 77.48 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 77.48 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5271 extended to as high as 1.6151 last week before closing strongly at 1.6130. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should now continue towards 1.6618 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.5978 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.5851 minor support is needed to signal completion of rebound from 1.5271. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bullish in GBP/USD in near term.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8529 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.8830, just ahead of 61.8% of 0.8529 to 0.8796 from 0.8669 at 0.8834, before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway trading first. Note that another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.8669 support holds and above 0.8830 will target a test on key near term resistance level at 0.8884. On the downside, though, break of 0.8669 will indicate that rebound from 0.8529 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8884 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US market had closed mixed on Friday. The Dow (12231.11) was up 0.18% while the Nasdaq (2737.15) closed flat. Nasdaq has an important Trendline Resistance near current levels in 2750-75 region which has held well last week. This is significant to be watched. However, the Dow still has little room on the upside for a rise to 12500.
In Asian Japan (9096.27, up 0.51%) is trading higher following the government's intervention in the Currency markets. The other markets, Australia (4388.10, down 0.53%), Hong Kong (19997.64, down 0.11%), Shanghai (2471.84, down 0.06%) and Taiwan (7609.66, down 0.08%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (17804.80, up 515.97 points) and Nifty (5360.70, up 158.90 points) had closed higher on Friday.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (92.71) is finding Resistance in 94.00-50 region and it needs to see a strong rise/close above this Resistance to extend its current upmove further. While below 94.50, a pull back to 90-89 is possible.
Gold (1717.40) has come off sharply from Friday's high of 1754. Technically the Resistance near 1750 is holding well and now it needs to be seen whether Gold can sustain above the psychological Support level of 1700.
Silver (34.62) has come off from its high of 35.70. It has significant Resistance in 36.50-37.00 which needs to be broken for the upmove to extend further.
Copper (3.60) has come off from its high of 3.74 and with Resistance near 3.80, a test of 3.50 on the downside looks likely.
CURRENCIES
Intervention by Japan today morning. Dollar-Yen (79.20) has jumped to a high of 79.48 in the last couple of hours. Euro (1.4054) has fallen sharply as well. Thus, the Dollar is overall gainer and the Dollar Index (76.02) has shot up from a low near 75.03. That the Euro has fallen below 1.4140 is significant as that was a strong Resistance. A Close below that today would mean that the Resistance has not been violated on a month-close basis.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8698) has moved up from the early-Asia low of 0.8608. The Pound (1.6009) has fallen from a high of 1.6138 and the Aussie (1.0570) has fallen to a low of 1.0550 compared to a high of 1.0782 on Friday. There is a decent Double Top on the Aussie now and we'd be looking for further bearishness.
Given that very large movements have already taken place early in the morning today, and given that today is the first day of the week and the last day of the month, it is likely that the market may be quiet for the rest of the day. People may want to rework their assesments about the market and not really take positions today.
Among the Asian currencies, the USD-SGD (1.2471) trades relatively strong while the Korean Won (1106.95) has weakened since the morning. The Indian Rupee, which closed at 48.76 on Friday, may move up towards 48.85-90 today, if not higher.
INTEREST RATES
US treasuries yields came off between 2 to 9 bps across all maturities, 2Y yields closed at 0.29% (-2bps) and 30Y closed at 3.36% (-9bps). The expected US employment figure, playing the leading role in surge in price, still point to fragile economic recovery.
In Euro area, yields in German bunds increased more at the near end. The 2Y yield increased by 5bps to 0.60% against 3bps increase in 10Y and 2bps increase in 30Y to 2.18% and 2.92% respectively.
In India, 10Y GOI bond yield increased by 10bps to 8.85% during Friday, last week. The bounce indicates a move towards 9% next month. RBI was clear at its part assuring that they may not require further rate hike.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en om 14:45uur cijfers uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan eindigt in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0.69%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd vanaf gisterenavond in downtrend. 1.39860.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 31 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Hes beheer, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- TNT, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, werkloosheid, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, Chicago inkoopmanagersindex, oktober, 14.45 uur
- VS, Dow Jones economisch sentiment, oktober, 18.00 uur
DINSDAG 1 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DSM, cijfers KW3
- Eurocommercial, AVA
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, ABU, periode 10 2011, 10.00 uur
- VK, economische groei (voorlopige raming) KW3, 10.30 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, bouwuitgaven, september, 15.00 uur
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
De premier van Luxemburg en voorzitter van de ministers van financiën van de zeventien eurolanden, zei zondag voor de Duitse televisie dat Italië de hervormingen moet doorvoeren, zoals vorige week is afgespoken op de EU-top. Juncker zei verder dat het zinvol is bij China aan te kloppen om in het Europese noodfonds te investeren.
De mogelijke rol van China is president Nicolas Sarkozy van Frankrijk zondag juist op flinke kritiek komen te staan. 'Het is schokkend', zegt secretaris-generaal Martine Aubry van de socialisten, 'De Europeanen tonen hun zwakte door zich tot China te wenden. Hoe kan Europa op deze manier aan China vragen een einde te maken aan d e onderwaardering van hun munt.'
Juncker zei er overigens bij dat Europa geen politieke concessies mag doen voor een eventuele Chinese bijdrage. Hij zei verder dat Europa zich overigens ook zonder financiële hulp van China zal redden.
Wall Street is vrijdag overwegend hoger gesloten, nadat beleggers een pas op de plaats maakten na de stijgingen van een dag eerder toen het plan om de eurocrisis op te lossen bekend werd.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,2% hoger op 12.231,11 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 sloot vlak op 1.285,08 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,1% verloor tot 2.737,15 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag overwegend lager gesloten, omdat beleggers meer kritisch keken naar het reddinsplan voor de eurozone en een Italiaanse obligatieveiling tegenviel.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 0,6% lager op 2.462,36. De DAX-30 steeg 0,1% tot 6.346,19, de CAC-40 sloot 0,6% lager op 3.348,63 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,2% op 5.702,24.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag nipt lager gesloten. Eerdere verliezen verdwenen grotendeels van de borden toen de yields op staatsobligaties uit de periferie van de eurozone stegen en aandelen zakten.
De bunds waren lager geopend, maar herstelden gedeeltelijk toen een Italiaanse obligatieveiling weinig vraag opleverde. Italie veilde in totaal EUR7,9 miljard aan vier staatsleningen, waar het land beoogde EUR8,5 miljard op te halen.
De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met verlies gesloten, na de euforie van donderdag krabden beleggers zich achter de oren.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 0,9% lager op 313,01 punten, de Midkap verloor 0,6% op 496,70 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,1% lager op 429,71 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag lager gesloten. Beleggers waren voorzichtig vanwege de onzekerheid over de details van het Europese reddingsplan voor Griekenland.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,64 lager op $93,22.
IMF mulls how to better help countries under strain
(Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday that it was considering how better to help countries under economic strain because of financial market stress but said it was not targeting particular countries.
The global lender was responding to weekend reports, including one in Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, that said the IMF would create a new short-term lending facility to prevent the current financial crisis in Europe from spreading.
The newspaper, citing unnamed sources, said the IMF was likely to provide funds for countries like Italië and Spain where government bond yields remain at high levels.
In a statement, the IMF said that over the past year it was reviewing existing lending arrangements, building on reforms begun in 2008 and 2009 to add to its tools for responding to crises.
It did not directly respond to the suggestion that it might set up a new lending facility.
"The aim of the review is to enhance the ability of the Fund to mitigate contagion by providing liquidity to countries with relatively strong policies and fundamentals that are affected by heightened global or regional financial market stress," the IMF said.
But it said its efforts were intended to meet potential needs of all its members and were not "targeted at particular countries" and have no indication when it might come to any decisions.
All options in play as MF Global seeks sale: source
(Reuters) - MF Global Holdings Ltd held talks with possible buyers on Sunday with the aim "squarely" on doing a deal, though all options were on the table, a person briefed on the matter said.
A number of interested parties were considering several possible deals, including buying all or parts of the troubled U.S. futures brokerage run by former Goldman executive Jon Corzine, said the source, who requested anonymity.
"The goal is squarely for some sort of M&A transaction," the source said, adding the situation was "fluid".
The pressure is on the company after a week in which it posted a quarterly loss, its shares fell by two-thirds and its credit ratings were cut to junk. MF Global hired Evercore to help find a buyer, separate sources said this past week.
It was unclear how close the company was to a possible deal as discussions stretched through the weekend. MF Global declined to comment.
Since Corzine became chief executive last year, the brokerage has increasingly used its own capital to trade.
MF Global's problems are now rooted in low interest rates and bets made on European sovereign debt, and it is emerging as one of the hardest-hit U.S. financial firms in the fallout from Europe's economic crisis.
The company has reached out to banks including Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Macquarie Group Ltd, State Street Corp and Wells Fargo, a source familiar with the situation said on Friday.
The plunge last week in MF Global's corporate bonds to distressed levels, and in its shares to below $1 at one point on Friday, makes it all the more urgent for the company to come up with some sort of solution before markets open on Monday.
The company, which runs a Futures Commission Merchant and a broker-dealer, was scrambling last week to reassure customers about its stability as signs grew that some of them were withdrawing money.
A drop in a broker's credit rating to junk erodes confidence in its creditworthiness and can then restrict its ability to borrow -- the bedrock of any financial institution -- and fund day-to-day operations.
Corzine took the reins at MF Global after a term as governor of New Jersey.
Long list of dangers ahead for global economy
(Reuters) - Europe's long shadow is tempering a burst of optimism that the United States can escape recession and China achieve a soft landing.
Deep concern persists that European leaders will fall short when they try to flesh out the details of how their rescue fund can tap sufficient resources to backstop Greece and to handle a potential government financing crisis in Italy or Spain.
Europe is looking to emerging economies to provide the extra financial firepower to strengthen the fund four- to five-fold, to about 1 trillion euros, a promise that could materialize at a Group of 20 summit in France on Thursday and Friday.
The response so far from China on strengthening the fund has been very cautious, and market experts want to see a fund with resources twice the size under discussion in Brussels. That has set the stage for possible unsettling disappointment in the days ahead.
"If the absolute amount is not enough, we will be back to the storms. The break in the clouds may only last a few hours," said Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at UBS.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings last week and third-quarter U.S. growth at a solid 2.5 percent, underpinned by surging business investment and a pick-up in consumer spending, have buoyed prospects for the global economy.
The drawdown in inventories in the third quarter also points to solid U.S. growth continuing through the end of the year.
Several Wall Street firms revised up their outlooks. JP Morgan raised its fourth-quarter economic growth forecast to 2.5 percent from 1 percent.
But talk to any economist or market strategist and every positive statement about the economic outlook is heavily hedged with warnings about what could yet go wrong.
The list is long.
Europe probably is already in recession; its politicians could fail to build a strong enough firewall in time to prevent financial contagion; and U.S. consumers are too heavily indebted to support strong growth next year.
Looming in the background are the U.S. budget deficit talks. Risks persist that lawmakers will reach stalemate by the end of the year, which would automatically trigger U.S. fiscal contraction at the start of 2012 if tax cuts and jobless benefits expire.
"The politics are improving in Europe, but the economic data is deteriorating and recession risks are rising. In the United States it is the exact opposite," said Kurt Karl, senior vice president at Swiss Re American Holdings Corp.
Any of these factors could put the brakes on recovery.
FUTURE ACTION
The European Central Bank is widely expected to lay the foundation for an interest rate cut at its meeting on Thursday, citing the economic weakness in the 17-nation currency bloc. Euro zone manufacturing and services data due on Wednesday may confirm the tilt into recession seen in flash PMIs last week.
The ECB probably will also signal it will continue to purchase bonds issued by debt-heavy euro zone countries to promote financial stability, a move that gives leaders more time to finalize details of the debt plan.
Most analysts doubt Italian Mario Draghi will embark on bolder action at his first meeting as ECB president, although there is an outside chance for a rate cut.
Federal Reserve policymakers also are expected to tread cautiously at their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The improved U.S. data diminish the argument for further monetary easing, though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at his news conference on Wednesday is likely to repeat his disappointment at the pace of recovery and explore further options for supporting growth in face of the considerable risks ahead.
Several Fed policymakers have suggested the central bank needs to do more to support housing, the central problem for the U.S. economy.
Employment growth is stuck in a rut and consumers are digging into their savings to spend. As long as the American consumer, who drives 70 percent of all U.S. economic activity, is buried under a mountain of debt -- much of it mortgage debt -- and many houses remain worth less than the mortgage, consumer demand will remain weak and business hiring paltry.
Employment data on Friday is expected to show 95,000 new jobs outside the farm sector were added in October, a slight improvement from the prior month. But payroll growth since April has averaged only 72,000, less than one-third the pace needed to reduce the 9.1 percent jobless rate, and down from a 161,000 average rate in the prior seven months.
Income growth is negative once adjusted for inflation, and household debt loads at 133 percent of disposable income are too high to support much consumption.
"The underlying problem is to find where sustainable spending growth will come from," said David Mann, U.S. economist for Standard Chartered.
Europe in recessionary territory and an impaired U.S. consumer also point to a deceleration in exports from China when its manufacturing index is released on Tuesday, rounding out a picture of a vulnerable world economy.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.37930, om 23:00uur 1.38650, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 720.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87290, om 23:00uur 0.86900, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 340.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22650, om 23:00uur 1.22400, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 250.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.58000, om 23:00uur 1.59400, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 1400.
USD/JPY : 7uur 76.750, om 23:00uur 76.200, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 550.
USD/CAD: 7uur 1.01550, om 23:00uur 1.00950, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 600.
Weekly Review and Outlook
Risk Soared, Dollar Tumbled after EU Summit, Trend Sustainability Depends on Fed's Expectation Management
Expectation management proved to be the most important thing in the markets. While the outcomes of the EU summits were undoubtably positively, they were anything ground-breaking. We heard about bank recapitalization, Greek debt haircut and beefing-up of EFSF before. They're not new. But the expectation ahead of the second EU summit was so low that markets cheered those outcomes and risks surged broadly. The development was significant as stocks turned positive for the year while dollar index turned quite bearish. Now, we're entering into another important week with three central bank meeting, G20 summit as well as loads of important economic data. Most importantly, recent comments from Fed officials have set up some expectations for QE3 and we'll see how Bernanke would further manage our expectations with the FOMC statement and press conference this week.
To recap the EU summit, three major initiatives were agreed. Firstly, EU leaders has agreed with Institute of International Finance on a deal that imposes 50% on Greek debts on the second bailout. That's substantially larger haircut than the 21% agreed back in July but was better than the worst case of 60%. The larger write-down should lower Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2020, which is believed to be a financially sustainable level. Secondly, European banks will now be required to raise core tier 1 capital ratio to 9% by and explicit deadline of June 30, 2012. The ratio was significantly higher than the passing mark of 5% of the stress tests in summer. More overall, the capital levels now needed to be calculated after marking down government bond holdings as of September 30. The total amount involved is estimated to be around EUR 106b and banks could tap into EFSF for support in the worst case. Thirdly, the EFSF will be leveraged up by four to five times but the details would be decided in November. It's reported that the boost will be done by using a combination of 'the first loss insurance model' and the 'special purpose vehicle model' (SPV).
There are still much uncertainties around the so called comprehensive package from EU. Firstly, there are still much details to be finalized and there are doubts on where EU could execute the plan. In particular, there should be still much division in opinions on how the EFSF should be leveraged and it's unknown whether as EFSF capacity of EUR 1T is enough to contain the crisis if it spreads to Italy and Spain. Thirdly, a main question is also on whether the 50% haircut in Greek debt is enough if recession in the economy worsen further. But after all, markets seems to be convinced, at least for now, that the measures would stop contagion. And Euro bears seem to be running out of ideas to short the common currency in near term.
Focus should now turn to the G20 summit in Cannes this Thursday and Friday. G20 leaders has explicitly requested Europe to provide a concrete plan before this summit. Not that it's done, the G20 leaders are expected to endorse what EU leaders have done. More importantly, the main focus will be on any agreement from BRIC countries on providing a helping hand on European debt crisis.
Talking about BRIC, another factor that boosted sentiments were the comments from China Premier Wen Jiabao, who signaled change in policies. Wen said the Ministry of Industry is studying "stimulative policies" for smaller companies that're facing global slowdown. And, the officials will made adjustments as a "suitable time and by an appropriate degree", and will maintain reasonable money supply growth. The statement is affirmative to markets' view that China would at least halt tightening measures like rate hike. It also raises the possibility that China would relax credit control towards the end of the year by lowering the reserve-requirement ratio for smaller bank and adopt a rate cut next year.
Look ahead, the three central bank meetings scheduled this week are all important in different ways. Recent comments from Fed officials, from Tarullo, Yellen, Evans and others indicated that some officials are seriously considering restarting the quantitative easing engine, in particular in buying mortgage based-securities. Though, the solid Q3 GDP data seemed to have reduced the urgency for the Fed to do something in November and FOMC could just save the bullet for Q1 next year. Nonetheless, markets should look for affirmation to the chance of QE3 to extend recent risk rally. In addition, there were proposals for Fed to explicitly express that it will keep the policy rate at ultra low level until either unemployment drops below 7% or medium term inflation expectation rises above 3%. FOMC could incorporate similar things in the statement. After all, remember that risk rally started when Tarullo talked about QE and extended on EU summit. That is, should Fed disappoint and dent the hope on further quantitative easing, we would very likely see a deep pull back in risk instead. ECB and RBA meeting would also be interesting ones. There are speculations of rate cut from both central banks but such opinion is far from being dominant. Based on recent rebound in risk markets, we'd lean towards the case for both central banks to stand pat.
Technical Highlights
Before looking into individual markets, we'd like to emphasize that drastic turn in sentiments and developments these two weeks are strongly suggesting that the correction in risk markets that started back in May has finished in October already. Similarly, the corresponding rebound in dollar is likely completed too. So, we're now facing the possibility of new highs in stocks and new low in the weeks ahead. We'd tend to believe the post FOMC reaction this week would be a key factor to affirm or invalidate this case.
DOW jumped to as high as 12284 last week and took out 11862 resistance with ease. The strong close at 12231 suggests that further rally would likely be seen initially this week. The overall development argue that correction from 12876 has completed at 10404 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 6470 to 12876 at 10429. This is affirmed with weekly MACD moving further above the signal line. Near term outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as last week's low of 11682 holds and we'd expect a retest of 12876 resistance soon.
Similar picture is seen in FTSE as it took out 55 weeks EMA with ease last week. The development suggests that pull back from 6105.77 has completed at 4791.01 already after drawing strong support from 50% retracement of 3460.7 to 6105.7 at 4783.2 and 4790 key support. This is affirmed by 55 weeks MACD moving further above signal line. Outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as last week's low of 5465.5 holds and retest of 6105.77 high should be seen in near term.
Dollar index's fall from 79.83 accelerated last week and dropped to as low as 74.72 before closing at 75.09. The development suggests that rebound from 72.69 has completed at 79.83 already and the corrective structure in turn argue that whole down trend from 88.70 is not over. Near term bias will now remain on the downside as long as 76.66 resistance holds and deeper fall should be seen to retest 72.69 first. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole down trend form 88.70 and should target 70.70 record low made back in 2008.
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook
AUD/USD's rise from 0.9387 accelerated to as high as 1.0752 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and break of 1.0764 will target a test on 1.1079 high. On the downside, below 1.0564 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations . But retreat should be contained by 1.0321 support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the medium term outlook in AUD/USD remains bullish as up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is expected to extend further higher. Break of 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8066 to 1.1079 from 0.9387 at 1.1249 next. Meanwhile, a break of 1.0321 support will argue that the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is going to extend further with at least one more falling leg. But in any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual upside breakout.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.9387 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD soared to as high as 1.4246 last week, just inch below 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145 at 1.4254. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with 1.4108 minor support intact. Break of 1.4254 should bring further rally to 1.4548 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4108 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.3914 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, first of all, current development indicates that rise from 1.1875 is not finished yet. Break of 1.4548 resistance will argue that such rally is resuming for above 1.4939 resistance. Nevertheless, note again that price actions since 1.6039 high are all corrective in nature, which suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in a long term consolidation pattern. And at this point, there isn't any sustainable medium term momentum in any direction yet. Hence, even in case of stronger rally, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY made another record low at 75.65 last week even though downside momentum remained a bit unconvincing. In any case, further decline is still expected in near term as long as 76.31 resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, break of 76.31 will indicate short term bottoming and should bring rebound back towards 77.48 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 77.48 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5271 extended to as high as 1.6151 last week before closing strongly at 1.6130. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should now continue towards 1.6618 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.5978 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.5851 minor support is needed to signal completion of rebound from 1.5271. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bullish in GBP/USD in near term.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8529 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.8830, just ahead of 61.8% of 0.8529 to 0.8796 from 0.8669 at 0.8834, before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway trading first. Note that another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.8669 support holds and above 0.8830 will target a test on key near term resistance level at 0.8884. On the downside, though, break of 0.8669 will indicate that rebound from 0.8529 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8884 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US market had closed mixed on Friday. The Dow (12231.11) was up 0.18% while the Nasdaq (2737.15) closed flat. Nasdaq has an important Trendline Resistance near current levels in 2750-75 region which has held well last week. This is significant to be watched. However, the Dow still has little room on the upside for a rise to 12500.
In Asian Japan (9096.27, up 0.51%) is trading higher following the government's intervention in the Currency markets. The other markets, Australia (4388.10, down 0.53%), Hong Kong (19997.64, down 0.11%), Shanghai (2471.84, down 0.06%) and Taiwan (7609.66, down 0.08%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (17804.80, up 515.97 points) and Nifty (5360.70, up 158.90 points) had closed higher on Friday.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (92.71) is finding Resistance in 94.00-50 region and it needs to see a strong rise/close above this Resistance to extend its current upmove further. While below 94.50, a pull back to 90-89 is possible.
Gold (1717.40) has come off sharply from Friday's high of 1754. Technically the Resistance near 1750 is holding well and now it needs to be seen whether Gold can sustain above the psychological Support level of 1700.
Silver (34.62) has come off from its high of 35.70. It has significant Resistance in 36.50-37.00 which needs to be broken for the upmove to extend further.
Copper (3.60) has come off from its high of 3.74 and with Resistance near 3.80, a test of 3.50 on the downside looks likely.
CURRENCIES
Intervention by Japan today morning. Dollar-Yen (79.20) has jumped to a high of 79.48 in the last couple of hours. Euro (1.4054) has fallen sharply as well. Thus, the Dollar is overall gainer and the Dollar Index (76.02) has shot up from a low near 75.03. That the Euro has fallen below 1.4140 is significant as that was a strong Resistance. A Close below that today would mean that the Resistance has not been violated on a month-close basis.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8698) has moved up from the early-Asia low of 0.8608. The Pound (1.6009) has fallen from a high of 1.6138 and the Aussie (1.0570) has fallen to a low of 1.0550 compared to a high of 1.0782 on Friday. There is a decent Double Top on the Aussie now and we'd be looking for further bearishness.
Given that very large movements have already taken place early in the morning today, and given that today is the first day of the week and the last day of the month, it is likely that the market may be quiet for the rest of the day. People may want to rework their assesments about the market and not really take positions today.
Among the Asian currencies, the USD-SGD (1.2471) trades relatively strong while the Korean Won (1106.95) has weakened since the morning. The Indian Rupee, which closed at 48.76 on Friday, may move up towards 48.85-90 today, if not higher.
INTEREST RATES
US treasuries yields came off between 2 to 9 bps across all maturities, 2Y yields closed at 0.29% (-2bps) and 30Y closed at 3.36% (-9bps). The expected US employment figure, playing the leading role in surge in price, still point to fragile economic recovery.
In Euro area, yields in German bunds increased more at the near end. The 2Y yield increased by 5bps to 0.60% against 3bps increase in 10Y and 2bps increase in 30Y to 2.18% and 2.92% respectively.
In India, 10Y GOI bond yield increased by 10bps to 8.85% during Friday, last week. The bounce indicates a move towards 9% next month. RBI was clear at its part assuring that they may not require further rate hike.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en om 14:45uur cijfers uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan eindigt in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0.69%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd vanaf gisterenavond in downtrend. 1.39860.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 31 OKTOBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Hes beheer, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- TNT, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, werkloosheid, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, Chicago inkoopmanagersindex, oktober, 14.45 uur
- VS, Dow Jones economisch sentiment, oktober, 18.00 uur
DINSDAG 1 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DSM, cijfers KW3
- Eurocommercial, AVA
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, ABU, periode 10 2011, 10.00 uur
- VK, economische groei (voorlopige raming) KW3, 10.30 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, bouwuitgaven, september, 15.00 uur
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Maandag 31 oktober: Belgische veiling staatsobligaties.
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
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12 years 4 months ago #4440
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 1-11-2011
De Europese schuldencrisis dreigt het Amerikaanse effectenhuis MF Global de kop te kosten. Het bedrijf, dat wordt geleid door voormalig Goldman Sachs-topman Jon Corzine, vroeg gisteren faillissementsbescherming aan na grote verliezen op Europese staatsobligaties.
MF Global kwam vorige week in grote problemen nadat het bedrijf een verlies over het afgelopen kwartaal had gepresenteerd. Het effectenhuis zag twee derde van zijn beurswaarde verdampen en werd door kredietbeoordelaars afgewaardeerd tot 'junk'. In de afgelopen dagen zocht het bedrijf tevergeefs naar een partner die onderdelen wilde overnemen.
MF Global stak veel eigen geld in obligaties van eurolanden en lijkt daardoor het meest prominente Amerikaanse slachtoffer van de schuldencrisis tot nu toe te worden.
Het is 'roekeloos' van de regering-Papandreou om een referendum te houden over het nieuwe Europese steunpakket aan Griekenland. Dat zegt de Griekse oppositie, die nieuwe verkiezingen eist. Gisterenavond maakt de Griekse premier George Papandreou bekend dat zijn regering een referendum wil houden over het nieuwe Europese steunpakket aan het land. In een reactie heeft de grootste opppositiepartij Nea Demokratia laten weten het plan 'roekeloos' te vinden. Volgens de partij gooit Papandreou het EU-lidmaatschap van Griekenland te grabbel. De oppositiepartij dringt aan op nieuwe verkiezingen. De regering van Papandreou wil weten of burgers het EU-hulppakket steunen. ‘We vertrouwen op de burgers, we vertrouwen in hun oordeel en in hun besluit’, zei hij tegen parlementsleden van zijn socialistische PASOK-partij.
Uit peilingen blijkt dat bijna 60% van de Griekse bevolking negatief of waarschijnlijk negatief is over het nieuw EU-hulppakket voor Griekenland van € 130 mrd, dat afgelopen week werd afgesproken. De Griekse minister van financiën, Evangelos Venizelos, noemde het referendum de catharsis van de crisis in Griekenland. 'Het referendum zal de Grieken de kans geven om zich uit te spreken.' Volgens Venizelos wordt het referendum gehouden nadat de details van het nieuwe hulpakkoord zijn uitgewerkt. De Europese politici zijn compleet overvallen door de aankondiging van de Griekse premier. De Europese Commissie studeert nog op een reactie op de ontwikkelingen in Griekenland. Minister-president Mark Rutte wil nog niet reageren. Mogelijk komt hij dinsdagmorgen met een eerste reactie, zo laat de Rijksvoorlichtingsdienst weten.
Een diplomatieke bron noemt het 'een bizar verhaal, een slechte zaak'. Een andere bron stelt dat Papandreou met zijn rug tegen de muur staat en een steeds kleinere parlementaire meerderheid heeft. De Amerikaanse beurs stond al in de min gisterenavond, maar zakte nog verder weg, tot onder de -2%, na het nieuws over het Griekse referendum.
Wall Street is gisteren lager gesloten. Twijfels over de effectiviteit van het Europese noodplan stuurden de Amerikaanse beurzen flink omlaag. De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,3% lager op 11.955,01 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 2,5% tot 1.253,30 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,9% afstond tot 2.684,41 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ook lager gesloten, waarbij de kritiek op het vorige week gepresenteerde plan om de Europese schuldencrisis te beteugelen toeneemt en vanwege grote financiële problemen bij het Amerikaanse effectenhuis MF Global, dat maandag faillissementsbescherming aanvroeg. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 3,1% lager op 2.385,22. De DAX-30 daalde 3,2% tot 6.141,34, de CAC-40 sloot 3,2% lager op 3.242,84 en de FTSE-100 verloor 2,8% op 5.544,22. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn maandag ruim hoger gesloten. Nervositeit over oplopende Italiaanse rentes stuurde de veilige beleggingen scherp omhoog. Een verdere stijging van de yields op Italiaans staatspapier onderstreepte de nerveuze houding bij beleggers. De yields op 10-jarige obligaties stegen tot boven de 6%, in de buurt van de recordhoogte die in augustus werd bereikt.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten op basis van grote financiële problemen bij het Amerikaanse effectenhuis MF Global, dat maandag faillissementsbescherming aanvroeg.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 1,8% lager op 307,50 punten, het laagste punt van de dag. De Midkap zakte 2,2% op het slot naar 485,96 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% lager op 426,95 punten.
De olieprijs is maandag licht gedaald bij lage volumes, nadat de handel via MF Global werd stilgelegd vanwege de faillissementsaanvraag van de belangrijke broker.
Het volume was minder dan de helft van normale dagen: minder dan 300.000 contracten werden verhandeld tegen een 200-daags gemiddelde van bijna 660.000, nadat klanten van MF te horen kregen dat ze alleen hun posities mochten afbouwen.
Brokers als MF Global leveren de belangrijke 'clearingdiensten', zoals het matchen van orders, afhandelen van betalingen en uitvoeren van opdrachten.
Afgevaardigden van CME Group, die de handel van Nymex-olie en andere energiegerelateerde termijncontract overziet, informeerden de handelaren kort na de faillissementsaanvraag van MF over de beslissing om de handel via het handelshuis aan banden te leggen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.40100, om 23:00uur 1.38460, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1640.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87600, om 23:00uur 0.86140, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1460.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22120, om 23:00uur 1.21630, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 510.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.59910, om 23:00uur 1.60750, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 840.
USD/JPY : 7uur 79.260, om 23:00uur 78.170, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1090.
USD/CAD: 7uur 0.99990, om 23:00uur 0.99850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 140.
Dollar's many woes complicate Japan intervention
NEW YORK (Reuters) - When it comes to weakening the yen, currency speculators are the least of Japan's problems.
That's because when policymakers intervene to limit yen strength, as they did Monday, they square off against a formidable array of forces, including U.S. monetary policy, Chinese reserve managers and global investors from Texas to Tokyo united by one desire: to sell the U.S. dollar.
Investors and market analysts say that explains why prior efforts to weaken the yen against the dollar have failed and why the chances of success this time around are equally slim.
Japan intervened for the third time this year after the yen hit a record high of 75.31 per dollar, spending an estimated $65 billion and at one point pushing it some 5 percent lower.
More may be on the way, particularly after data last week showed speculators had doubled their bets in favor of the yen in the week to October 25, the highest since around the last time policymakers intervened in August.
Few expect much bang for the buck, though. Japan's move failed to push the dollar above 80 yen, and analysts at Credit Suisse forecast the dollar would soon return to 75-76 yen.
"This is not necessarily about independent yen strength or speculative forces driving it up, though I appreciate there's an element of that," said Simon Derrick, a strategist at BNY Mellon in London.
"Rather this is about broad-based dollar weakness. We are in the midst of a 10-year dollar downtrend and there are no signs the forces that have driven that are about to change."
Japan is an export-oriented economy and a strong yen makes products more expensive abroad -- the last thing needed for an already weak economy that was ravaged in March by a major earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.
But Derrick notes that not even the severity of that disaster and the blow it dealt Japan's economy interrupted the dollar's steady decline against the yen.
In fact, the yen soared to what was then a record high against the dollar after the earthquake, prompting official intervention a few days later.
And the pattern is much the same elsewhere.
"We've had something close to an existential crisis in the euro zone. We had the UK central bank print more money," he said. "But as with the yen, both currencies are doing well against the dollar. That tells you a lot about the problems facing the dollar."
UP AGAINST THE FED
Though up broadly on Monday, the dollar has shed nearly 4 percent against six major currencies so far this year and is down more than 30 percent since the start of 2001.
One impediment has been loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve recently pledged to hold interest rates at zero until at least 2013 and the debate about more easing has heated up.
Several policymakers have talked about adding to the $2.3 trillion the Fed has already poured into the financial system by resuming purchases of mortgage-backed bonds.
While U.S. economic data has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, economists say growth remains well below the pace needed to make a real dent in a 9.1 percent jobless rate.
"The Fed hasn't changed its stance, and that's really the problem," said Stephen Jen, president of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro. "It's more likely than not that we will see QE3 eventually, so (Japan) may have done this preemptively, knowing the Fed is probably gearing up to take action again."
Some also fear the euro zone is on the verge of recession, and with most countries being forced to tighten their fiscal belts to rein in large deficits, markets expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by year end.
As a result, Japanese investors may be content to park their money in Japanese government debt for safe keeping.
That matters, Jen said, because Japanese investors play a large role in driving the yen exchange rate. With interest rates at or near zero for more than a decade, retail investors typically seek higher returns abroad when risk appetite is high. But when opportunities fade, that money comes home.
"The dollar is such an international currency that its trajectory is not dictated by American investors but that's not so with the yen," he said. "As soon as Japanese investors have second thoughts about investments overseas, you have pressure in the dollar-yen exchange rate."
U.S. DEFICIT BACK IN FOCUS
There may be other reasons to avoid the dollar in the months ahead, especially if there is a breakdown in the politically tense negotiations about how to shave $1.5 trillion from the U.S. budget deficit over the next decade.
If a November 23 deadline comes and goes, that would trigger automatic cuts and, some fear, prompt another ratings agency to cut the United States top AAA rating.
If that happens, Derrick said China and other large holders of dollars could increase efforts to diversify their massive foreign exchange reserves, keeping pressure on the dollar and complicating Japanese efforts to weaken the yen.
Japan could declare a level beyond which it would not let the dollar fall. That's worked for Switzerland, which struggled for much of the year to contain massive franc appreciation against the euro as the euro zone debt crisis deepened.
But that probably wouldn't win Japan any friends at this week's summit of Group of 20 leaders in France.
Credit Suisse called such a policy for the world's fourth largest exporter and third largest economy, "politically unacceptable globally," adding it could prompt other export-led Asian countries to follow suit, "something both the U.S. and Europe are loath to see."
"So this looks like a one-off unilateral intervention," said Mark McCormick, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Historical precedent suggests it will be ineffective."
EUR/USD Throwback Stalls at 61.8% Retracement and Channel Support
The EUR/USD correction sped up after the JPY intervention which not only weakened the Japanese Yen, but also boosted the US Dollar. Looking at the 1H chart, the EUR/USD has corrected nearly 61.8% retracement, which is 1.3970. The 1.3950 level is also an important pivot which was treated as resistance from Oct 24 - 26. A bullish market should be supported by this area.
The bullish scenario can return if the market rallies above the current minor consolidation with resistance at 1.4055. The bullish scenario gets an extra confirmation if the minor consolidation area is then tested and respected as support. A return to 1.4250 is the short-term outlook and no higher because this is still an important resistance that was not cracked last time. Failure to break above puts the market in a range-bound mode.
The bearish scenario should be considered if instead of support, the market slides through the 1.3950 pivot, then also the 200 period simple moving average and also the 1.3895 78.6% retracement level as a last threshold. If the 1.3950 level shows resistance, and we do fall below 1.3895, we would also be breaking below the channel seen in the 4H chart. This breakout opens up the 50% retracement of the 1.3138 to 1.4246 rally, at 1.3690. 1.3680 is a support cluster including the 200SMA and support seen in the consolidation from Oct. 13-21, as well as resistance on Oct. 10. So the 1.3680-1.37 area could be a target for a break below 1.3895. and 1.4246 could be target for a break above 1.4055.
AUD/USD Technicals: Resistance at 1.0657 and Support at 1.05
The 4H AUD/USD chart shows the market in a correction decline from 1.0750, establishing support at a previous resistance level of 1.05. The market has been in quiet consolidation since finding support. Resistance can be expected at the 1.0657 pivot.
If the market falls below the 1.05 level, the next level of support is likely near 1.0370 which was resistance 10/14, 10/17 and 10/19, then was support 10/26. Below that we might be returning to the 200SMA in the 4H chart, near 1.0105, which was also the support pn 10/13 and 10/18.
A break above 1.0657 suggests we may have completed a zig zag correction. In this bullish continuation scenario, we open up the 1.0750 high in the near-term, and then the 1.0764 pivot, as well as the 1.1080 record high.
EUR/GBP Technicals: Deep Retracement Challenges Bullish Breakout
After breaking above the declining wedge seen in the 4H chart, the EUR/GBP rallied above the 0.88 resistance. Then the market topped off at 0.8830 and has since developed a deep retracement by the 10/31 US trading session. The decline has broken below 61.8% retracement level at 0.8734, and is threatening to test the 0.8700 level, which is near 78.6% retracement. This is a support cluster that also includes the 200 period simple moving average in the 4H chart and the projected trendline connecting lows from Oct 4 and Oct 26. The RSI is also about to test 40.
The bullish scenario in the short-term back to the 0.8830 high and onto 0.8885 is preserved if the market can be supported above 0.87. Otherwise, if the market breaks below 0.87, we will have to surely re-evaluate the bullish scenario brought on by last week’s bullish breakout.
Below 0.87, the first areas of support are 0.8670 low from last week, and the 0.8650 pivot seen in the daily chart. Below that, we open up the 0.8630 low again. Note the failure in the RSI reading in the daily chat to return back above 60, and thus reflecting a range-bound momentum. The current bearish outlook therefore is in the short-term within context of a ranging market in the medium term.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets fell sharply yesterday. The unexpected referendum called by the Greek Prime Minister and the trading firm MF Global filing for bankruptcy has brought back the fear in the market and has triggered the fall yesterday. Dow (11955.01) was down 2.26% and the Nasdaq (2684.41) was down 1.93%. Support is there at 11900 for the Dow, a break below it can take it down to 11500 in the coming days. 2600 is a significant Support level to be watched on the Nasdaq.
The Asian markets are trading in the red except for Shanghai (2489.84, up 0.87%) which is trading higher today. Australia (4314.60, down 1.05%), Hong Kong (19475.59, down 1.96%), Nikkei (8920.86, down 0.75%) and Taiwan (7559.89, down 0.37%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (17705.01, down 99.79 points) and Nifty (5326.60, down 34.10 points) had closed lower yesterday and could extend its fall today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (92.74) is not gaining strength to break above the 94.00-50 Resistance region. Some Support is seen at 92 and a strong break below it would take it down towards 90-88.
Gold (1711) is ranged between 1700-50 over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed and we will have to wait for a breakout of this 1700-50 sideways range.
Silver (34.38) has come off from its high of 35.45. A test of 33-32 looks likely on the downside.
Copper (3.64) fell sharply yesterday from its high of 3.74 and is keeping up the chances of testing 3.50 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
All round gains for the Dollar today, even against the Asians. The Dollar Index (76.49) has seen an impressive bounce from Friday's low of 74.72. The Euro (1.3845) has declined further through the US session. Dollar-Yen (78.15) which had fallen to 77.75 in the European session yesterday also stabilised and moved up a bit in the US session.
There wqas divergent movement in the Pound (1.6076) which moved up to 1.6165 through the European and US sessions yesterday. But it has come off since then. The Aussie (1.0547) has also lost ground further, seeing a low of 1.0498 today. Dollar-Swiss (0.8789) has continued to move up.
After last week's euphoria about the Euro-deal, the market sold Italian and Spanish bonds yesterday, driving yields higher, and is wary of buying the Euro ahead of the ECB Meeting on Thursday. Some are expecting an interest rate cut. So, in effect, last week's surge in the Euro has been washed out and the Dollar is back in the game. The Euro could target 1.37 in the coming days.
Asian currencies have also weakened today. The Korean Won has fallen to 1124.41, from a low near 1101 on Friday. The USD-SGD (1.2573) has also moved up further and could target 1.2670 while above 1.2500 now. Dollar-Rupee (48.70) managed to remain above Support at 48.60 yesterday and could move up towards 48.80 today.
INTEREST RATES
As mentioned above Spanish and Italian bonds have been sold yesterday, suggesting waning confidence in the market about last week's Euro-deal. In the meanwhile, German and US Bond Yields are dipping again, with the 5-Yr yields being 1.09% and 0.99% respectively. Although German yields are higher, the yield differential is narrowing in favour of the Dollar.
A number of Central Bank meetings are scheduled this week, starting with the RBA today, followed by the FOMC tomorrow and the ECB on Thursday. No one is expected to raise rates (obviously). There is talk, though, that the ECB might lower rates.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:30uur cijfers uit het Verenigkoninkrijk en om 15:00uur cijfers uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
In lijn met Europa en de VS, Nikkei 225 op -1.70%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd blijft in downtrend. 1.38132.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 1 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DSM, cijfers KW3
- Eurocommercial, AVA
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, ABU, periode 10 2011, 10.00 uur
- VK, economische groei (voorlopige raming) KW3, 10.30 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, bouwuitgaven, september, 15.00 uur
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
MF Global kwam vorige week in grote problemen nadat het bedrijf een verlies over het afgelopen kwartaal had gepresenteerd. Het effectenhuis zag twee derde van zijn beurswaarde verdampen en werd door kredietbeoordelaars afgewaardeerd tot 'junk'. In de afgelopen dagen zocht het bedrijf tevergeefs naar een partner die onderdelen wilde overnemen.
MF Global stak veel eigen geld in obligaties van eurolanden en lijkt daardoor het meest prominente Amerikaanse slachtoffer van de schuldencrisis tot nu toe te worden.
Het is 'roekeloos' van de regering-Papandreou om een referendum te houden over het nieuwe Europese steunpakket aan Griekenland. Dat zegt de Griekse oppositie, die nieuwe verkiezingen eist. Gisterenavond maakt de Griekse premier George Papandreou bekend dat zijn regering een referendum wil houden over het nieuwe Europese steunpakket aan het land. In een reactie heeft de grootste opppositiepartij Nea Demokratia laten weten het plan 'roekeloos' te vinden. Volgens de partij gooit Papandreou het EU-lidmaatschap van Griekenland te grabbel. De oppositiepartij dringt aan op nieuwe verkiezingen. De regering van Papandreou wil weten of burgers het EU-hulppakket steunen. ‘We vertrouwen op de burgers, we vertrouwen in hun oordeel en in hun besluit’, zei hij tegen parlementsleden van zijn socialistische PASOK-partij.
Uit peilingen blijkt dat bijna 60% van de Griekse bevolking negatief of waarschijnlijk negatief is over het nieuw EU-hulppakket voor Griekenland van € 130 mrd, dat afgelopen week werd afgesproken. De Griekse minister van financiën, Evangelos Venizelos, noemde het referendum de catharsis van de crisis in Griekenland. 'Het referendum zal de Grieken de kans geven om zich uit te spreken.' Volgens Venizelos wordt het referendum gehouden nadat de details van het nieuwe hulpakkoord zijn uitgewerkt. De Europese politici zijn compleet overvallen door de aankondiging van de Griekse premier. De Europese Commissie studeert nog op een reactie op de ontwikkelingen in Griekenland. Minister-president Mark Rutte wil nog niet reageren. Mogelijk komt hij dinsdagmorgen met een eerste reactie, zo laat de Rijksvoorlichtingsdienst weten.
Een diplomatieke bron noemt het 'een bizar verhaal, een slechte zaak'. Een andere bron stelt dat Papandreou met zijn rug tegen de muur staat en een steeds kleinere parlementaire meerderheid heeft. De Amerikaanse beurs stond al in de min gisterenavond, maar zakte nog verder weg, tot onder de -2%, na het nieuws over het Griekse referendum.
Wall Street is gisteren lager gesloten. Twijfels over de effectiviteit van het Europese noodplan stuurden de Amerikaanse beurzen flink omlaag. De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,3% lager op 11.955,01 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 2,5% tot 1.253,30 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,9% afstond tot 2.684,41 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ook lager gesloten, waarbij de kritiek op het vorige week gepresenteerde plan om de Europese schuldencrisis te beteugelen toeneemt en vanwege grote financiële problemen bij het Amerikaanse effectenhuis MF Global, dat maandag faillissementsbescherming aanvroeg. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 3,1% lager op 2.385,22. De DAX-30 daalde 3,2% tot 6.141,34, de CAC-40 sloot 3,2% lager op 3.242,84 en de FTSE-100 verloor 2,8% op 5.544,22. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn maandag ruim hoger gesloten. Nervositeit over oplopende Italiaanse rentes stuurde de veilige beleggingen scherp omhoog. Een verdere stijging van de yields op Italiaans staatspapier onderstreepte de nerveuze houding bij beleggers. De yields op 10-jarige obligaties stegen tot boven de 6%, in de buurt van de recordhoogte die in augustus werd bereikt.
De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten op basis van grote financiële problemen bij het Amerikaanse effectenhuis MF Global, dat maandag faillissementsbescherming aanvroeg.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 1,8% lager op 307,50 punten, het laagste punt van de dag. De Midkap zakte 2,2% op het slot naar 485,96 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% lager op 426,95 punten.
De olieprijs is maandag licht gedaald bij lage volumes, nadat de handel via MF Global werd stilgelegd vanwege de faillissementsaanvraag van de belangrijke broker.
Het volume was minder dan de helft van normale dagen: minder dan 300.000 contracten werden verhandeld tegen een 200-daags gemiddelde van bijna 660.000, nadat klanten van MF te horen kregen dat ze alleen hun posities mochten afbouwen.
Brokers als MF Global leveren de belangrijke 'clearingdiensten', zoals het matchen van orders, afhandelen van betalingen en uitvoeren van opdrachten.
Afgevaardigden van CME Group, die de handel van Nymex-olie en andere energiegerelateerde termijncontract overziet, informeerden de handelaren kort na de faillissementsaanvraag van MF over de beslissing om de handel via het handelshuis aan banden te leggen.
Forex:
Verloop valutaparen gisteren:
EUR/USD : 7uur 1.40100, om 23:00uur 1.38460, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1640.
EUR/GBP : 7uur 0.87600, om 23:00uur 0.86140, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1460.
EUR/CHF : 7uur 1.22120, om 23:00uur 1.21630, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 510.
GBP/USD : 7uur 1.59910, om 23:00uur 1.60750, gemiddeld dagverschil van + 840.
USD/JPY : 7uur 79.260, om 23:00uur 78.170, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 1090.
USD/CAD: 7uur 0.99990, om 23:00uur 0.99850, gemiddeld dagverschil van -/- 140.
Dollar's many woes complicate Japan intervention
NEW YORK (Reuters) - When it comes to weakening the yen, currency speculators are the least of Japan's problems.
That's because when policymakers intervene to limit yen strength, as they did Monday, they square off against a formidable array of forces, including U.S. monetary policy, Chinese reserve managers and global investors from Texas to Tokyo united by one desire: to sell the U.S. dollar.
Investors and market analysts say that explains why prior efforts to weaken the yen against the dollar have failed and why the chances of success this time around are equally slim.
Japan intervened for the third time this year after the yen hit a record high of 75.31 per dollar, spending an estimated $65 billion and at one point pushing it some 5 percent lower.
More may be on the way, particularly after data last week showed speculators had doubled their bets in favor of the yen in the week to October 25, the highest since around the last time policymakers intervened in August.
Few expect much bang for the buck, though. Japan's move failed to push the dollar above 80 yen, and analysts at Credit Suisse forecast the dollar would soon return to 75-76 yen.
"This is not necessarily about independent yen strength or speculative forces driving it up, though I appreciate there's an element of that," said Simon Derrick, a strategist at BNY Mellon in London.
"Rather this is about broad-based dollar weakness. We are in the midst of a 10-year dollar downtrend and there are no signs the forces that have driven that are about to change."
Japan is an export-oriented economy and a strong yen makes products more expensive abroad -- the last thing needed for an already weak economy that was ravaged in March by a major earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.
But Derrick notes that not even the severity of that disaster and the blow it dealt Japan's economy interrupted the dollar's steady decline against the yen.
In fact, the yen soared to what was then a record high against the dollar after the earthquake, prompting official intervention a few days later.
And the pattern is much the same elsewhere.
"We've had something close to an existential crisis in the euro zone. We had the UK central bank print more money," he said. "But as with the yen, both currencies are doing well against the dollar. That tells you a lot about the problems facing the dollar."
UP AGAINST THE FED
Though up broadly on Monday, the dollar has shed nearly 4 percent against six major currencies so far this year and is down more than 30 percent since the start of 2001.
One impediment has been loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve recently pledged to hold interest rates at zero until at least 2013 and the debate about more easing has heated up.
Several policymakers have talked about adding to the $2.3 trillion the Fed has already poured into the financial system by resuming purchases of mortgage-backed bonds.
While U.S. economic data has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, economists say growth remains well below the pace needed to make a real dent in a 9.1 percent jobless rate.
"The Fed hasn't changed its stance, and that's really the problem," said Stephen Jen, president of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro. "It's more likely than not that we will see QE3 eventually, so (Japan) may have done this preemptively, knowing the Fed is probably gearing up to take action again."
Some also fear the euro zone is on the verge of recession, and with most countries being forced to tighten their fiscal belts to rein in large deficits, markets expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by year end.
As a result, Japanese investors may be content to park their money in Japanese government debt for safe keeping.
That matters, Jen said, because Japanese investors play a large role in driving the yen exchange rate. With interest rates at or near zero for more than a decade, retail investors typically seek higher returns abroad when risk appetite is high. But when opportunities fade, that money comes home.
"The dollar is such an international currency that its trajectory is not dictated by American investors but that's not so with the yen," he said. "As soon as Japanese investors have second thoughts about investments overseas, you have pressure in the dollar-yen exchange rate."
U.S. DEFICIT BACK IN FOCUS
There may be other reasons to avoid the dollar in the months ahead, especially if there is a breakdown in the politically tense negotiations about how to shave $1.5 trillion from the U.S. budget deficit over the next decade.
If a November 23 deadline comes and goes, that would trigger automatic cuts and, some fear, prompt another ratings agency to cut the United States top AAA rating.
If that happens, Derrick said China and other large holders of dollars could increase efforts to diversify their massive foreign exchange reserves, keeping pressure on the dollar and complicating Japanese efforts to weaken the yen.
Japan could declare a level beyond which it would not let the dollar fall. That's worked for Switzerland, which struggled for much of the year to contain massive franc appreciation against the euro as the euro zone debt crisis deepened.
But that probably wouldn't win Japan any friends at this week's summit of Group of 20 leaders in France.
Credit Suisse called such a policy for the world's fourth largest exporter and third largest economy, "politically unacceptable globally," adding it could prompt other export-led Asian countries to follow suit, "something both the U.S. and Europe are loath to see."
"So this looks like a one-off unilateral intervention," said Mark McCormick, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Historical precedent suggests it will be ineffective."
EUR/USD Throwback Stalls at 61.8% Retracement and Channel Support
The EUR/USD correction sped up after the JPY intervention which not only weakened the Japanese Yen, but also boosted the US Dollar. Looking at the 1H chart, the EUR/USD has corrected nearly 61.8% retracement, which is 1.3970. The 1.3950 level is also an important pivot which was treated as resistance from Oct 24 - 26. A bullish market should be supported by this area.
The bullish scenario can return if the market rallies above the current minor consolidation with resistance at 1.4055. The bullish scenario gets an extra confirmation if the minor consolidation area is then tested and respected as support. A return to 1.4250 is the short-term outlook and no higher because this is still an important resistance that was not cracked last time. Failure to break above puts the market in a range-bound mode.
The bearish scenario should be considered if instead of support, the market slides through the 1.3950 pivot, then also the 200 period simple moving average and also the 1.3895 78.6% retracement level as a last threshold. If the 1.3950 level shows resistance, and we do fall below 1.3895, we would also be breaking below the channel seen in the 4H chart. This breakout opens up the 50% retracement of the 1.3138 to 1.4246 rally, at 1.3690. 1.3680 is a support cluster including the 200SMA and support seen in the consolidation from Oct. 13-21, as well as resistance on Oct. 10. So the 1.3680-1.37 area could be a target for a break below 1.3895. and 1.4246 could be target for a break above 1.4055.
AUD/USD Technicals: Resistance at 1.0657 and Support at 1.05
The 4H AUD/USD chart shows the market in a correction decline from 1.0750, establishing support at a previous resistance level of 1.05. The market has been in quiet consolidation since finding support. Resistance can be expected at the 1.0657 pivot.
If the market falls below the 1.05 level, the next level of support is likely near 1.0370 which was resistance 10/14, 10/17 and 10/19, then was support 10/26. Below that we might be returning to the 200SMA in the 4H chart, near 1.0105, which was also the support pn 10/13 and 10/18.
A break above 1.0657 suggests we may have completed a zig zag correction. In this bullish continuation scenario, we open up the 1.0750 high in the near-term, and then the 1.0764 pivot, as well as the 1.1080 record high.
EUR/GBP Technicals: Deep Retracement Challenges Bullish Breakout
After breaking above the declining wedge seen in the 4H chart, the EUR/GBP rallied above the 0.88 resistance. Then the market topped off at 0.8830 and has since developed a deep retracement by the 10/31 US trading session. The decline has broken below 61.8% retracement level at 0.8734, and is threatening to test the 0.8700 level, which is near 78.6% retracement. This is a support cluster that also includes the 200 period simple moving average in the 4H chart and the projected trendline connecting lows from Oct 4 and Oct 26. The RSI is also about to test 40.
The bullish scenario in the short-term back to the 0.8830 high and onto 0.8885 is preserved if the market can be supported above 0.87. Otherwise, if the market breaks below 0.87, we will have to surely re-evaluate the bullish scenario brought on by last week’s bullish breakout.
Below 0.87, the first areas of support are 0.8670 low from last week, and the 0.8650 pivot seen in the daily chart. Below that, we open up the 0.8630 low again. Note the failure in the RSI reading in the daily chat to return back above 60, and thus reflecting a range-bound momentum. The current bearish outlook therefore is in the short-term within context of a ranging market in the medium term.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets fell sharply yesterday. The unexpected referendum called by the Greek Prime Minister and the trading firm MF Global filing for bankruptcy has brought back the fear in the market and has triggered the fall yesterday. Dow (11955.01) was down 2.26% and the Nasdaq (2684.41) was down 1.93%. Support is there at 11900 for the Dow, a break below it can take it down to 11500 in the coming days. 2600 is a significant Support level to be watched on the Nasdaq.
The Asian markets are trading in the red except for Shanghai (2489.84, up 0.87%) which is trading higher today. Australia (4314.60, down 1.05%), Hong Kong (19475.59, down 1.96%), Nikkei (8920.86, down 0.75%) and Taiwan (7559.89, down 0.37%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (17705.01, down 99.79 points) and Nifty (5326.60, down 34.10 points) had closed lower yesterday and could extend its fall today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (92.74) is not gaining strength to break above the 94.00-50 Resistance region. Some Support is seen at 92 and a strong break below it would take it down towards 90-88.
Gold (1711) is ranged between 1700-50 over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed and we will have to wait for a breakout of this 1700-50 sideways range.
Silver (34.38) has come off from its high of 35.45. A test of 33-32 looks likely on the downside.
Copper (3.64) fell sharply yesterday from its high of 3.74 and is keeping up the chances of testing 3.50 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
All round gains for the Dollar today, even against the Asians. The Dollar Index (76.49) has seen an impressive bounce from Friday's low of 74.72. The Euro (1.3845) has declined further through the US session. Dollar-Yen (78.15) which had fallen to 77.75 in the European session yesterday also stabilised and moved up a bit in the US session.
There wqas divergent movement in the Pound (1.6076) which moved up to 1.6165 through the European and US sessions yesterday. But it has come off since then. The Aussie (1.0547) has also lost ground further, seeing a low of 1.0498 today. Dollar-Swiss (0.8789) has continued to move up.
After last week's euphoria about the Euro-deal, the market sold Italian and Spanish bonds yesterday, driving yields higher, and is wary of buying the Euro ahead of the ECB Meeting on Thursday. Some are expecting an interest rate cut. So, in effect, last week's surge in the Euro has been washed out and the Dollar is back in the game. The Euro could target 1.37 in the coming days.
Asian currencies have also weakened today. The Korean Won has fallen to 1124.41, from a low near 1101 on Friday. The USD-SGD (1.2573) has also moved up further and could target 1.2670 while above 1.2500 now. Dollar-Rupee (48.70) managed to remain above Support at 48.60 yesterday and could move up towards 48.80 today.
INTEREST RATES
As mentioned above Spanish and Italian bonds have been sold yesterday, suggesting waning confidence in the market about last week's Euro-deal. In the meanwhile, German and US Bond Yields are dipping again, with the 5-Yr yields being 1.09% and 0.99% respectively. Although German yields are higher, the yield differential is narrowing in favour of the Dollar.
A number of Central Bank meetings are scheduled this week, starting with the RBA today, followed by the FOMC tomorrow and the ECB on Thursday. No one is expected to raise rates (obviously). There is talk, though, that the ECB might lower rates.
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 10:30uur cijfers uit het Verenigkoninkrijk en om 15:00uur cijfers uit de VS.
Actuele stand 7:00uur
In lijn met Europa en de VS, Nikkei 225 op -1.70%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eur/Usd blijft in downtrend. 1.38132.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 1 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DSM, cijfers KW3
- Eurocommercial, AVA
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, ABU, periode 10 2011, 10.00 uur
- VK, economische groei (voorlopige raming) KW3, 10.30 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, bouwuitgaven, september, 15.00 uur
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Dinsdag 1 november: Mario Draghi volgt Jean-Claude Trichet op als president van de ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
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12 years 4 months ago #4441
by Jelle
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
Replied by Jelle on topic Re: Market Update 1-11-2011
Fijn dat de dagelijkse market update weer terug is! (een ook dat jij terug bent natuurlijk Ed, spreekt voor zich )
"All right. This one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs."
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12 years 4 months ago #4442
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Re: Market Update 1-11-2011
Dankje Jelle, Eigenlijk heb ik best wel veel gemist vorige week. Met name de verslaving Forex
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12 years 4 months ago #4458
by Edbeleg
Replied by Edbeleg on topic Market Update 2-11-2011
Premier George Papandreou zal niet wijken van zijn voornemen het Europese steunpakket voor te leggen aan de bevolking, aldus regeringswoordvoerder Angelos Tolkas.
Bovendien overleeft premier George Papandreou vrijdag de vertrouwensstemming in het parlement volgens de woordvoerder. Papandreou bespreekt zijn plannen op dit moment met zijn kabinet. De positie van Papandreou en zijn socialistische regeringpartij lijkt snel af te brokkelen nu zijn referendumvoorstel forse kritiek heeft veroorzaakt binnen de eigen gelederen. Één parlementslid, Milena Apostolaki, heeft de fractie inmiddels al verlaten.
Parlementslid en oud Europees politica Vaso Papandreou van de Pasok - geen familie van de premier - riep de Griekse politieke leiders dinsdag op bijeen te komen met president Karolos Papoulias om tot een regering van nationale eenheid te komen. Die zou de resultaten van de EU-top moeten redden.
Wall Street is gisteren met verlies gesloten, in navolging van fikse dalingen op de Europese markten, als gevolg van onrust vanwege de Griekse plannen voor een referendum.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,5% lager op 11.657,96 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 2,8% tot 1.218,28 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 2,9% afstond tot 2.606,96 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren hard onderuit gegaan. Het nieuws dat de Griekse premier Papandreau een referendum wil houden over het Europese noodplan zorgde voor een waar slagveld, vooral onder banken.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 5,3% lager op 2.259,73. De DAX-30 daalde 5% tot 5.834,51, de CAC-40 sloot 5,4% lager op 3.068,33 en de FTSE-100 verloor 2,2% op 5.421,57.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag flink hoger gesloten. De Griekse oproep tot een referendum zorgde voor dalende aandelenmarkten en een vlucht naar veilige beleggingen.
De AEX-index sloot ook gisteren 3,7% lager op 296,19 punten. Daarmee blijft de index nog wel boven zijn horizontale steun. De Midkap zakte op het slot 4% naar 466,65 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 3,2% lager op 413,27 punten.
Net als Maandag bleef het verlies in Amsterdam beperkt ten opzichte van de Duitse en Franse indices.
De olieprijs is dinsdag hoger gesloten, nadat bezorgdheid over de Europese schuldencrisis weer oplaaide op het nieuws dat Griekenland een referendum wil houden.
Forex:
Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Weak on Greek Referendum and Global Manufacturing Data
Sentiments have been weak after Greek's referendum call re-raised concern over Eurozone debt crisis. Risk markets are further sold off today after poor manufacturing data around the world. Just released in US session, ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped to 50.8 in October, versus a rise to 52.2. Price paid component dived sharply to 41. European major indices are all in red with DAX and CAD down more than -4.5% while FTSE is down -2.7%. DOW opened sharply lower today and is down over -200 pts at the time of writing while dollar index jumps to as high as 77.67 so far.
UK Q3 GDP preliminary reading showed 0.5% qoq growth, better than expectation of 0.3% qoq. However, Sterling was pressured by much weaker than expected manufacturing data. The PMI manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped sharply from 51.1 to 47.4 in October versus consensus of 50. The reading was a 28 month low with weakness seen in output, new orders and employment. The data somewhat affirm BoE's view that inflation is set to drop sharply next year and support further easing from the central bank. Swiss SVME also dropped more than expected to 46.9, lowest reading since July 2009.
The official Chinese PMI unexpectedly plunged to 50.4 in October from 51.2 a month ago. Markets expected a rise to 51.8. The reading fell to the lowest level in almost 3 years as 'new order' slumped to 50.5 from 51.3. Weakness in new orders was in turn driven by 'new export orders' which plummeted to 48.6 from 50.9. The situation indicated that economic growth in China has been facing more external risks than domestic risks. The manufacturing data further evidenced that Chinese economy is slowing. This may give the government some thoughts on monetary stance. Yet, we do not envisage a rate cut this year even though there are speculations that it will lower reserve requirement ratio for smaller banks by the end of the year.
The RBA cut the cash rate for the first time since April 2009, by -25 bps, to 4.5% as inflation has been contained by 'subdued demand conditions' and 'high exchange rate'. In the policy statement, the RBA delivered a more cautious view in global economic growth. It also lowered its inflation forecast and signaled growth outlook will be more in line with trend. We believe the reduction in interest rate is more of fine-tuning of the monetary policy than a beginning of an easing cycle. More in RBA Cut Cash Rate To 4.5%, Not A Beginning Of Easing Cycle. Australia house price index dropped -1.2% qoq in Q3, better than expectation of -1.5% qoq.
The Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said yesterday a referendum is need for passage of the new EU agreement. Meanwhile, he also needs a vote of confidence in parliament which will begin tomorrow and end on November 4. There's possibility for the government to lose the referendum as survey showed that 59% of respondents were against the new EU agreement, although 73% wanted to stay in the Eurozone. In case of a loss, new elections would have to be held but it would take place after 3-4 weeks after the parliament is dissolved. During the political vacuum, austerity measures being implemented in the country will be suspended. In a likely circumstance that the opposition party will win the early election, renegotiation of all deals may be needed. Of course, EU leaders' reaction by then is also highly uncertain. Under such scenario, it's unknown whether the IMF will withhold its funding of EUR 2.2b to Greece which is expected to be disbursed in mid-November.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3734; (P) 1.3952 (R1) 1.4076; More.
EUR/USD"s fall from 1.4268 extended further to as low as 1.3608 so far today and the break of 1.3652 support indicates that rebound from 1.3145 is already finished after missing 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145. Deeper decline could be seen retest 1.3145 low. On the upside, above 1.3871 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.4246 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 1.3145. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish for the moment.
In the bigger picture, recent volatility in EUR/USD is mixing up the outlook again. But firstly, consolidation from 1.6039 is still in progress. Secondly, rise from 1.1875, which is a leg inside the consolidation pattern, is still in progress as long as 1.3145 support holds. Break of 1.4939 will resume such rally. But even in that case, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.3145 will in turn shift favor back to the case that the falling leg is already started at 1.4939 and would target 1.1875 support next.
US Session: Orders and Options Watch
EUR: Euro's broad-based weakness on renewed eurozone debt concerns after the Greek OM referendum call is definitely the main theme, most bids were basically cleared and U.S. funds were seen selling EUR/USD actively, stops below 1.3700 and 1.3650 were triggered and more stops below 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3550 are in focus. Risk aversion also put pressure on the single currency with Dow Future down almost 200 points, offers are lined up at 1.3690-00 and also 1.3720-30 with more selling interest likely to emerge further out at 1.3770-80 and 1.3810-20.
GBP: Although UK Q3 GDP came in slightly better than expected (0.5% vs forecast of 0.3%), traders simply focused on the soft manufacturing PMI (47.4 vs forecast of 50.0) and sold sterling in tandem with euro, stops below 1.5950-60 were triggered and more stops are reported below 1.5890 with some bids seen above this level. On the upside, offers from UK clearer are tipped from 1.5980 up to 1.6020 with stops building up above 1.6055-60. On the downside, whilst stops remain below 1.5890, some buying interest from Eastern European and Asian names are noted at 1.5845-50 and further out at 1.5820 and 1.5800.
CHF: The greenback surged against the Swiss franc and cross-selling again euro also helped lifting the headline pair, stops above 0.8880 and 0.8900 were triggered, offers at 0.8950/55 were also filled but more selling interest should emerge further out at 0.9000-10. On the downside, bids are seen at 0.8890-00 and also 0.8820-30, although some stops are tipped at 0.8800, more buying interest is expected at 0.8760-70 with sizeable stops building up below 0.8730-40.
JPY: The greenback virtually unchanged at tight range of 78.01-30 throughout the European session, bids from Japanese banks are still noted at 78.00 and also at 77.70-80 with stops building up below 77.50-60 but buying interest from Japanese investors is likely to emerge further out at 76.90-00. On the upside, light offers are noted at 78.30, 78.50 and further out at 79.00-10 with some stop buy orders placed above 79.20-30, mixture of offers and stops remains at 79.50-60.
USD/CHF Slides After Failing to Break Resistance Cluster
After finding support at 0.8567, USD/CHF rallied sharply to the 0.8960 level. The 4H chart shows that this swing came up to a projected trendline resistance, the 200-period simple moving average, as well as the 50% retracement of the 0.9310-0.8567 decline. The RSI was rejected after going above 70, a sign the USD/CHF was overbought and the market reacted accordingly. However, the ability to push to 70 suggests we no longer have a downtrend, and the current decline is probably within context of a flat consolidation if not a corrective rally against the decline from the 0.9310 high. The fact that it has broken above the 0.8855, 38.2% retracement and pivot already suggests we are in more than just a sideways correction, but more of a bullish one. With that in mind, let’s look at the 1H chart for some fibonacci retracement targets of the current correction against the correction.
The 1H chart shows that the 50% retracement of the rally is near 0.8664, which would be just below the 200SMA in this time-frame. A deeper retracement to 0.8717 area, 61.8% is also possible, but to target lower will be a stretch. Also a break back below 0.87 suggests failure of a bullish attempt, and returns to the bearish mode, with the 0.8672 low as the immediate target.
GBP/JPY Technicals: Completed Gartley Signals Bullish Attempt
After the JPY intervention, the GBP/JPY jumped from 121.87 to 127.32 in a matter of 2 hours. Since then, the market has been what appears to be an ABC correction. In harmonic patterns term, the market appears to have completed a Gartley. Note that the 1H chart is still bullish as the RSI failed to sustain the break below 40 and therefore maintains bullish momentum especially if it is pulled back above 60.
A bullish continuation is signaled. However since the nature of the previous rally was intervention-induced, we may want to be careful and set some conservative targets for the bullish scenario. The first should be near the 126.00 high, up to the projected trendline resistance near 126.50 A break above the pattern then opens up the 127.32 high.
The 4H chart shows a market that has already become bullish, so the intervention move was not a counter-trend move. This gives the upside more of a chance then say in the USD/JPY where the rally was against a downtrend. Therefore, even if the completed gartley is not followed by a bullish continuation, or is followed by a bull trap to be then reversed into further correction, we should anticipate support near the 122.70 pivot. Only a break below that and a break of the RSI below 40 should bring back the bearish outlook, in which case, the first target would be the 200SMA near 120.50.
EUR/GBP Wipes Away the Entire October Rally with 3 Days of Free Fall
The EUR/GBP daily chart shows a very sharp decline in the past 3 days including the current. This price action is wiping out gains built up throughout October from the 0.8530 low to the 0.8830 high. Will the 0.8530 level provide support? Even if it might, the heavy price action will be very hard to reverse right away. We already came from a sharp reversal that came after the 10/27 bullish breakout. While schizophrenic price action is possible, the more likely scenario if there is a bounce from 0.8530 is a dead cat bounce into consolidation that should see resistance below 0.8650.
The 0.8530 is a critical support level seen in the weekly chart. It is coincident with the 200-week simple moving average, and was resistance July 2010, before providing support in September and October 2011. A break below this level opens up 0.8455 in the short-term. This is 78.6% retracement of the rally from 0.8285 to 0.9080. Not shown in the chart below, but this is also coincident with 61.8% retracement of the larger degree rally, starting from 0.8067 to 0.9080.
Below 0.8450, we open up the 0.8285 pivot.
The ECB has its first interest rate meeting with Mario Draghi at the helm on Thursday. With negative headlines already re-emerging for the Eurozone, we’ll have to see if his debut can save stabilize the Euro.
EUR/USD at Support Cluster after Channel Breakout
The EUR/USD broke through the rising channel seen in the 4H chart and has not stopped since. The market is now cracking t he 1.3680-1.37 support cluster of 50% retracement, 200 period simple moving average, and previous pivots. The RSI dipped below 30 showing a lost of bullish momentum established during the run up in the channel.
If the market indeed finds support and there is a pullback in the US session, look for resistance in the 1.3825-1.3850 zone. However, if there is a sharper pullback, the market still should remain bearish unless the market breaks above 1.3950, in which case, a rally in the context of a developing sideways consolidation should be considered. Then a break above 1.40 opens up 1.4250 again.
After a pullback that fails to break above 1.40, preferably below 1.3950 maintains a bearish outlook at least toward the 61.8% retracement level in the 4H chart at 1.3562.
Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
8:00uur en 10:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 12:00uur en 15:30uur cijfers uit de VS.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The Greece Prime Minister calling for a referendum on the debt deal triggered a sharp sell off in the marekts all over. This has also brought back the fears into the market again.
The US markets closed sharply lower yesterday with the Dow (11657.96) down 2.48% and Nasdaq (2606.96) down 2.89%. The Dow has dropped below its Support at 11900 and it could dip further to 11550-00 in the coming days. On the other hand Nasdaq has closed just above its important Support at 2600, a fall below which would be very bad for the index.
The Asian markets are bleeding all over. Australia (4240.90) is down 1.31%, Nikkei (8665.20) is down 1.93%, Shanghai (2444.09) is down 1.05%, Hong Kong (19058.52) is down 1.61% and Taiwan (7545.14) is down 1.01%. The Sensex (17480.83, down 224.18 points) and Nifty (5257.95, down 68.65 points) had closed lower yesterday and is expected to extend its loss today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (91.40) fell sharply yesterday. but has managed to bounce back from its low of 89.17. The overall picture is weak with significant Resistance in 94.00-50 region and a test of 88 or even lower levels on the downside looks likely.
Gold (1727.50), witnessed an intraday fall below 1700 yesterday, but has bounced back from its low of 1681.20. Gold needs to see a strong rise/close above 1750-70 Resistance region to extend its upmove further. While 1750-70 Resistance region holds, a fall to 1650-00 looks likely in the coming days.
Silver (33.48) fell sharply yesterday. The Support at 32 is holding well as of now. It could find Resistance at 34 now and a failure to rise past 34 would increase the chance of a fall to 30 in the coming days.
Copper (3.55) fell further to towards 3.50 as expected. It can fall further to 3.40-38 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Some consolidation is being seen on the Euro (1.3706) between 1.3608-3764 after two days of straight fall. The market may be quiet for a while with the FOMC today and the ECB tomorrow. Friday sees the release of the very important NFP, which will either confirm or refute the number of positive data releases from the USA in October.
Dollar-Yen (78.17) is moving largely sideways between 78.00-50 since yesterday. An indecisive range of 77.50-78.50 is likely to prevail for a couple of days. Dollar-Swiss (0.8864) has come off a bit after finding Resistance at 0.8960, near the 21-day MA and could dip a little bit more.
The Pound (1.5950) could be vulnerable to a deeper fall towards 1.5850 while the Aussie (1.0330) could dip to test Support near 1.0250-30.
Asian currencies trade weak. The USD-SGD (1.2750) had shot up to 1.2808 yesterday and can weaken further after a brief consolidation. The Korean Won trades weak near 1127.60. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 49.2650 yesterday. It can move up towards 49.50-60.
INTEREST RATES
Bond prices across international fixed income market have rallied on week performance of the stocks. US treasuries and German bund yields came off for all maturities. The fall was more in for German bunds. 2Y German bund and US treasuries plummeted by 9 and 1 bps to 0.43% and 0.24% respectively. Same was the case for higher end, 30Y bunds and treasuries fell by 20 and 15 bps to 2.58% and 3.03%
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 sluit lager op 2.21%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De trend van de Eur/Usd is ranging. Uptrend richting 1.37500
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
–Wednesday, Nov. 2: French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet with Greek, IMF and EU officials in Cannes. Portuguese T-bill auction. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data.
–Thursday, Nov. 3: ECB policy meeting. Mario Draghi’s first press conference as ECB President. Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Thursday, Nov. 3-Friday, Nov. 4: Meeting of G-20 leaders in Cannes.
–Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote
Bovendien overleeft premier George Papandreou vrijdag de vertrouwensstemming in het parlement volgens de woordvoerder. Papandreou bespreekt zijn plannen op dit moment met zijn kabinet. De positie van Papandreou en zijn socialistische regeringpartij lijkt snel af te brokkelen nu zijn referendumvoorstel forse kritiek heeft veroorzaakt binnen de eigen gelederen. Één parlementslid, Milena Apostolaki, heeft de fractie inmiddels al verlaten.
Parlementslid en oud Europees politica Vaso Papandreou van de Pasok - geen familie van de premier - riep de Griekse politieke leiders dinsdag op bijeen te komen met president Karolos Papoulias om tot een regering van nationale eenheid te komen. Die zou de resultaten van de EU-top moeten redden.
Wall Street is gisteren met verlies gesloten, in navolging van fikse dalingen op de Europese markten, als gevolg van onrust vanwege de Griekse plannen voor een referendum.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,5% lager op 11.657,96 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 2,8% tot 1.218,28 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 2,9% afstond tot 2.606,96 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren hard onderuit gegaan. Het nieuws dat de Griekse premier Papandreau een referendum wil houden over het Europese noodplan zorgde voor een waar slagveld, vooral onder banken.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 5,3% lager op 2.259,73. De DAX-30 daalde 5% tot 5.834,51, de CAC-40 sloot 5,4% lager op 3.068,33 en de FTSE-100 verloor 2,2% op 5.421,57.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag flink hoger gesloten. De Griekse oproep tot een referendum zorgde voor dalende aandelenmarkten en een vlucht naar veilige beleggingen.
De AEX-index sloot ook gisteren 3,7% lager op 296,19 punten. Daarmee blijft de index nog wel boven zijn horizontale steun. De Midkap zakte op het slot 4% naar 466,65 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 3,2% lager op 413,27 punten.
Net als Maandag bleef het verlies in Amsterdam beperkt ten opzichte van de Duitse en Franse indices.
De olieprijs is dinsdag hoger gesloten, nadat bezorgdheid over de Europese schuldencrisis weer oplaaide op het nieuws dat Griekenland een referendum wil houden.
Forex:
Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Weak on Greek Referendum and Global Manufacturing Data
Sentiments have been weak after Greek's referendum call re-raised concern over Eurozone debt crisis. Risk markets are further sold off today after poor manufacturing data around the world. Just released in US session, ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped to 50.8 in October, versus a rise to 52.2. Price paid component dived sharply to 41. European major indices are all in red with DAX and CAD down more than -4.5% while FTSE is down -2.7%. DOW opened sharply lower today and is down over -200 pts at the time of writing while dollar index jumps to as high as 77.67 so far.
UK Q3 GDP preliminary reading showed 0.5% qoq growth, better than expectation of 0.3% qoq. However, Sterling was pressured by much weaker than expected manufacturing data. The PMI manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped sharply from 51.1 to 47.4 in October versus consensus of 50. The reading was a 28 month low with weakness seen in output, new orders and employment. The data somewhat affirm BoE's view that inflation is set to drop sharply next year and support further easing from the central bank. Swiss SVME also dropped more than expected to 46.9, lowest reading since July 2009.
The official Chinese PMI unexpectedly plunged to 50.4 in October from 51.2 a month ago. Markets expected a rise to 51.8. The reading fell to the lowest level in almost 3 years as 'new order' slumped to 50.5 from 51.3. Weakness in new orders was in turn driven by 'new export orders' which plummeted to 48.6 from 50.9. The situation indicated that economic growth in China has been facing more external risks than domestic risks. The manufacturing data further evidenced that Chinese economy is slowing. This may give the government some thoughts on monetary stance. Yet, we do not envisage a rate cut this year even though there are speculations that it will lower reserve requirement ratio for smaller banks by the end of the year.
The RBA cut the cash rate for the first time since April 2009, by -25 bps, to 4.5% as inflation has been contained by 'subdued demand conditions' and 'high exchange rate'. In the policy statement, the RBA delivered a more cautious view in global economic growth. It also lowered its inflation forecast and signaled growth outlook will be more in line with trend. We believe the reduction in interest rate is more of fine-tuning of the monetary policy than a beginning of an easing cycle. More in RBA Cut Cash Rate To 4.5%, Not A Beginning Of Easing Cycle. Australia house price index dropped -1.2% qoq in Q3, better than expectation of -1.5% qoq.
The Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said yesterday a referendum is need for passage of the new EU agreement. Meanwhile, he also needs a vote of confidence in parliament which will begin tomorrow and end on November 4. There's possibility for the government to lose the referendum as survey showed that 59% of respondents were against the new EU agreement, although 73% wanted to stay in the Eurozone. In case of a loss, new elections would have to be held but it would take place after 3-4 weeks after the parliament is dissolved. During the political vacuum, austerity measures being implemented in the country will be suspended. In a likely circumstance that the opposition party will win the early election, renegotiation of all deals may be needed. Of course, EU leaders' reaction by then is also highly uncertain. Under such scenario, it's unknown whether the IMF will withhold its funding of EUR 2.2b to Greece which is expected to be disbursed in mid-November.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3734; (P) 1.3952 (R1) 1.4076; More.
EUR/USD"s fall from 1.4268 extended further to as low as 1.3608 so far today and the break of 1.3652 support indicates that rebound from 1.3145 is already finished after missing 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145. Deeper decline could be seen retest 1.3145 low. On the upside, above 1.3871 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.4246 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 1.3145. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish for the moment.
In the bigger picture, recent volatility in EUR/USD is mixing up the outlook again. But firstly, consolidation from 1.6039 is still in progress. Secondly, rise from 1.1875, which is a leg inside the consolidation pattern, is still in progress as long as 1.3145 support holds. Break of 1.4939 will resume such rally. But even in that case, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.3145 will in turn shift favor back to the case that the falling leg is already started at 1.4939 and would target 1.1875 support next.
US Session: Orders and Options Watch
EUR: Euro's broad-based weakness on renewed eurozone debt concerns after the Greek OM referendum call is definitely the main theme, most bids were basically cleared and U.S. funds were seen selling EUR/USD actively, stops below 1.3700 and 1.3650 were triggered and more stops below 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3550 are in focus. Risk aversion also put pressure on the single currency with Dow Future down almost 200 points, offers are lined up at 1.3690-00 and also 1.3720-30 with more selling interest likely to emerge further out at 1.3770-80 and 1.3810-20.
GBP: Although UK Q3 GDP came in slightly better than expected (0.5% vs forecast of 0.3%), traders simply focused on the soft manufacturing PMI (47.4 vs forecast of 50.0) and sold sterling in tandem with euro, stops below 1.5950-60 were triggered and more stops are reported below 1.5890 with some bids seen above this level. On the upside, offers from UK clearer are tipped from 1.5980 up to 1.6020 with stops building up above 1.6055-60. On the downside, whilst stops remain below 1.5890, some buying interest from Eastern European and Asian names are noted at 1.5845-50 and further out at 1.5820 and 1.5800.
CHF: The greenback surged against the Swiss franc and cross-selling again euro also helped lifting the headline pair, stops above 0.8880 and 0.8900 were triggered, offers at 0.8950/55 were also filled but more selling interest should emerge further out at 0.9000-10. On the downside, bids are seen at 0.8890-00 and also 0.8820-30, although some stops are tipped at 0.8800, more buying interest is expected at 0.8760-70 with sizeable stops building up below 0.8730-40.
JPY: The greenback virtually unchanged at tight range of 78.01-30 throughout the European session, bids from Japanese banks are still noted at 78.00 and also at 77.70-80 with stops building up below 77.50-60 but buying interest from Japanese investors is likely to emerge further out at 76.90-00. On the upside, light offers are noted at 78.30, 78.50 and further out at 79.00-10 with some stop buy orders placed above 79.20-30, mixture of offers and stops remains at 79.50-60.
USD/CHF Slides After Failing to Break Resistance Cluster
After finding support at 0.8567, USD/CHF rallied sharply to the 0.8960 level. The 4H chart shows that this swing came up to a projected trendline resistance, the 200-period simple moving average, as well as the 50% retracement of the 0.9310-0.8567 decline. The RSI was rejected after going above 70, a sign the USD/CHF was overbought and the market reacted accordingly. However, the ability to push to 70 suggests we no longer have a downtrend, and the current decline is probably within context of a flat consolidation if not a corrective rally against the decline from the 0.9310 high. The fact that it has broken above the 0.8855, 38.2% retracement and pivot already suggests we are in more than just a sideways correction, but more of a bullish one. With that in mind, let’s look at the 1H chart for some fibonacci retracement targets of the current correction against the correction.
The 1H chart shows that the 50% retracement of the rally is near 0.8664, which would be just below the 200SMA in this time-frame. A deeper retracement to 0.8717 area, 61.8% is also possible, but to target lower will be a stretch. Also a break back below 0.87 suggests failure of a bullish attempt, and returns to the bearish mode, with the 0.8672 low as the immediate target.
GBP/JPY Technicals: Completed Gartley Signals Bullish Attempt
After the JPY intervention, the GBP/JPY jumped from 121.87 to 127.32 in a matter of 2 hours. Since then, the market has been what appears to be an ABC correction. In harmonic patterns term, the market appears to have completed a Gartley. Note that the 1H chart is still bullish as the RSI failed to sustain the break below 40 and therefore maintains bullish momentum especially if it is pulled back above 60.
A bullish continuation is signaled. However since the nature of the previous rally was intervention-induced, we may want to be careful and set some conservative targets for the bullish scenario. The first should be near the 126.00 high, up to the projected trendline resistance near 126.50 A break above the pattern then opens up the 127.32 high.
The 4H chart shows a market that has already become bullish, so the intervention move was not a counter-trend move. This gives the upside more of a chance then say in the USD/JPY where the rally was against a downtrend. Therefore, even if the completed gartley is not followed by a bullish continuation, or is followed by a bull trap to be then reversed into further correction, we should anticipate support near the 122.70 pivot. Only a break below that and a break of the RSI below 40 should bring back the bearish outlook, in which case, the first target would be the 200SMA near 120.50.
EUR/GBP Wipes Away the Entire October Rally with 3 Days of Free Fall
The EUR/GBP daily chart shows a very sharp decline in the past 3 days including the current. This price action is wiping out gains built up throughout October from the 0.8530 low to the 0.8830 high. Will the 0.8530 level provide support? Even if it might, the heavy price action will be very hard to reverse right away. We already came from a sharp reversal that came after the 10/27 bullish breakout. While schizophrenic price action is possible, the more likely scenario if there is a bounce from 0.8530 is a dead cat bounce into consolidation that should see resistance below 0.8650.
The 0.8530 is a critical support level seen in the weekly chart. It is coincident with the 200-week simple moving average, and was resistance July 2010, before providing support in September and October 2011. A break below this level opens up 0.8455 in the short-term. This is 78.6% retracement of the rally from 0.8285 to 0.9080. Not shown in the chart below, but this is also coincident with 61.8% retracement of the larger degree rally, starting from 0.8067 to 0.9080.
Below 0.8450, we open up the 0.8285 pivot.
The ECB has its first interest rate meeting with Mario Draghi at the helm on Thursday. With negative headlines already re-emerging for the Eurozone, we’ll have to see if his debut can save stabilize the Euro.
EUR/USD at Support Cluster after Channel Breakout
The EUR/USD broke through the rising channel seen in the 4H chart and has not stopped since. The market is now cracking t he 1.3680-1.37 support cluster of 50% retracement, 200 period simple moving average, and previous pivots. The RSI dipped below 30 showing a lost of bullish momentum established during the run up in the channel.
If the market indeed finds support and there is a pullback in the US session, look for resistance in the 1.3825-1.3850 zone. However, if there is a sharper pullback, the market still should remain bearish unless the market breaks above 1.3950, in which case, a rally in the context of a developing sideways consolidation should be considered. Then a break above 1.40 opens up 1.4250 again.
After a pullback that fails to break above 1.40, preferably below 1.3950 maintains a bearish outlook at least toward the 61.8% retracement level in the 4H chart at 1.3562.
Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
8:00uur en 10:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 12:00uur en 15:30uur cijfers uit de VS.
Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The Greece Prime Minister calling for a referendum on the debt deal triggered a sharp sell off in the marekts all over. This has also brought back the fears into the market again.
The US markets closed sharply lower yesterday with the Dow (11657.96) down 2.48% and Nasdaq (2606.96) down 2.89%. The Dow has dropped below its Support at 11900 and it could dip further to 11550-00 in the coming days. On the other hand Nasdaq has closed just above its important Support at 2600, a fall below which would be very bad for the index.
The Asian markets are bleeding all over. Australia (4240.90) is down 1.31%, Nikkei (8665.20) is down 1.93%, Shanghai (2444.09) is down 1.05%, Hong Kong (19058.52) is down 1.61% and Taiwan (7545.14) is down 1.01%. The Sensex (17480.83, down 224.18 points) and Nifty (5257.95, down 68.65 points) had closed lower yesterday and is expected to extend its loss today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (91.40) fell sharply yesterday. but has managed to bounce back from its low of 89.17. The overall picture is weak with significant Resistance in 94.00-50 region and a test of 88 or even lower levels on the downside looks likely.
Gold (1727.50), witnessed an intraday fall below 1700 yesterday, but has bounced back from its low of 1681.20. Gold needs to see a strong rise/close above 1750-70 Resistance region to extend its upmove further. While 1750-70 Resistance region holds, a fall to 1650-00 looks likely in the coming days.
Silver (33.48) fell sharply yesterday. The Support at 32 is holding well as of now. It could find Resistance at 34 now and a failure to rise past 34 would increase the chance of a fall to 30 in the coming days.
Copper (3.55) fell further to towards 3.50 as expected. It can fall further to 3.40-38 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Some consolidation is being seen on the Euro (1.3706) between 1.3608-3764 after two days of straight fall. The market may be quiet for a while with the FOMC today and the ECB tomorrow. Friday sees the release of the very important NFP, which will either confirm or refute the number of positive data releases from the USA in October.
Dollar-Yen (78.17) is moving largely sideways between 78.00-50 since yesterday. An indecisive range of 77.50-78.50 is likely to prevail for a couple of days. Dollar-Swiss (0.8864) has come off a bit after finding Resistance at 0.8960, near the 21-day MA and could dip a little bit more.
The Pound (1.5950) could be vulnerable to a deeper fall towards 1.5850 while the Aussie (1.0330) could dip to test Support near 1.0250-30.
Asian currencies trade weak. The USD-SGD (1.2750) had shot up to 1.2808 yesterday and can weaken further after a brief consolidation. The Korean Won trades weak near 1127.60. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 49.2650 yesterday. It can move up towards 49.50-60.
INTEREST RATES
Bond prices across international fixed income market have rallied on week performance of the stocks. US treasuries and German bund yields came off for all maturities. The fall was more in for German bunds. 2Y German bund and US treasuries plummeted by 9 and 1 bps to 0.43% and 0.24% respectively. Same was the case for higher end, 30Y bunds and treasuries fell by 20 and 15 bps to 2.58% and 3.03%
Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 sluit lager op 2.21%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De trend van de Eur/Usd is ranging. Uptrend richting 1.37500
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 2 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, trading update KW3
- Logica, cijfers KW3
- Neways, trading update KW3
- Exact Holding, cijfers KW3
- Aperam, resultaten KW3, 18.00 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, detailhandelsverkopen, september, 8.00 uur
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmangersindex industrie, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Dui, werkloosheid, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Oeso, inflatie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 28 oktober, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, oktober, 13.15 uur
- VS, olievoorraden week eindigend op 28 oktober, 15.30 uur
- VS, rentebesluit Federal Reserve, 17.30 uur
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.
–Wednesday, Nov. 2: French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet with Greek, IMF and EU officials in Cannes. Portuguese T-bill auction. Euro-zone manufacturing PMI data.
–Thursday, Nov. 3: ECB policy meeting. Mario Draghi’s first press conference as ECB President. Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Thursday, Nov. 3-Friday, Nov. 4: Meeting of G-20 leaders in Cannes.
–Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote
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