Iedere succesvolle forex trader moet in ieder geval enigszins op de hoogte zijn van de gebeurtenissen op de economische kalender. Ook al ben je zelf een technische trader, de valuta koersen worden op dag basis vaak in beweging gezet door gepubliceerde cijfers op de economische kalender. Daarom leggen we hieronder de belangrijkste economische gebeurtenissen uit. Wat is hun (gemiddelde) impact op de forex en wat betekenen ze.
De uitleg komt van onze Engelse site, maar Nederlanders hebben daar tegenwoordig toch geen vertaling meer voor nodig. :)
Rating 1 tot 5, 5 betekent 'erg belangrijk'.
Interest Rates -- (5)
Gives information about possible actions from a Central Bank, with regards to the interest rate it charges commercial banks for short term credit. The Central Bank uses the interest rate as an instrument to control both inflation and economic growth. A high interest rate makes borrowing money expensive, curbing investments and spending, which will have a decreasing effect on both inflation and economic growth. Vice versa for a low interest rate.
The currency that has its interest rate lowered (rate cut) will be cheaper to buy, and this will generally (not always) result in a decrease in value as compared to other currencies. Vice versa for when a Central Bank increases the interest rate (rate hike).
Often, there is much speculation about a rate alteration weeks before an anticipated move. This will increase volatility of the currency and generally push lower/higher conform the expectations. for the same reason, speeches and statements of Central Bank figures are meticulously watched/read for clues as to a possible rate hike or cut.
Interest Rate Statement -- (5)
The President of a Central Bank (FED /BOE / ECB /BOJ) comments on current condition or a recently made decision. These comments are often just as important as actual decisions, because they give an insight into the reason for policy measures. Statements like this are meticulously watched/read and often the currency involved experiences heavy volatility during these statements or in the hours after they're published.
Trade Balance -- (4)
The difference between import and export of a country, over a certain period, expressed in money. When there has been more exported than imported it is said there is a Trade Surplus, vice versa it is said there is a Trade Deficit.
A(n) (increased) Trade Deficit generally has a negative effect on the currency, because currency has been sold in favor of another currency to pay for the surplus in imports. Here, also, the expectations from analysts are of considerable importance. The further their forecasts are from the actual figures, the larger the direct impact usually is on the value of the currency.
Consumer Sentiment -- (4)
When the consumer confidence in its economy declines, this is often a strong signal that domestic consumption is under pressure. This in turn has a negative impact on GDP and thus on the currency.
Consumer Price Index -- (4)
The main inflation figure. Obviously important, because inflation has a direct influence on a currency. Simply put: if you get 20% interest over a currency, but the inflation is 30%, your money is still worth less than before. This is one of the reasons why nobody wants to invest in Zimbabwe, a country that has an inflation of a kazillion percent. Naturally the CPI of the US is far more important than that of a country like Norway....
Producer Price Index (PPI) -- (2)
Another inflation figure. Measures the change over a certain period in sales prices of the products of domestic producers.
Import Price Index (IPI) -- (3)
Gives indirect information about the US Trade Balance. It measures price changes for non-military goods and services imported by the US. Like the Export Price Index it gives information that is important for the Trade Balance. An increased Import Price Index means that part of the total import figure is caused by increased prices of foreign goods and services.
Export Price Index (XPI) -- (3)
See Import Price Index.
Manufacturing PMI -- (2)
This is the purchasing managers index. It's used in the Eurozone. Measures business conditions in the production sector. The total production accounts for a quarter of the total GDP of the EU. Measurements above 50 signal an increase in economic activities, below 50 signals a decrease. Basically this indicator gives information about the health of (part of) the EU economy. However, the importance for the forex market of this figure is not very high, this figure only rarely influences the forex market. But, it can strengthen convictions in combination with other indicators that measure the health of the EU economy.
Industrial Production -- (3)
Measures the total output of factories and mines. This indicator is more important in the US than it is in the EU (all tough the importance can vary). This is a monthly figure. It's important to note that the FED bases it's interest rate policy partially based on the current pressure on the Industrial Production. Generally it is said that when industrial capacity is above 85% the inflationary pressure increases, likewise increasing the chances for a rate hike (increasing interest rates) by the FED. (because then production can't keep up with demand, wages and prices will go up)
Wholsale Inventories -- (2)
US indicator. Measures the sale and supply statistics of the second phase in the production process. These sales statistics hardly say anything about personal consumption and therefore usually have little effect on the forex market. However, at times the inventory figures can give a signal about the overall health of the economy. For instance, when inventories increase sharply, this can signal a stagnation of the economy.
Employment Change -- (EU: 3)/(US: 5)
This is an important indicator, because it gives direct information about the growth of the economy. When the number of jobs decrease it is a clear signal of weakening growth, when the number increases, it signals a strengthening growth. As with all economic figures, it's very important to compare the actual figure with the expectation. The further these two are apart, the bigger the impact on the forex market usually is.
Non-Farm Payrolls -- (5)
US indicator. One of the most important economic indicators for the US economy. Non-Farm stands for all jobs minus:
- General government employees
- Private household employees
- Employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals
- Farm employees
The non-farm employment indicator includes: changes in the Non-Farm payrolls, unemployment figure, production payrolls and the average hourly wage. Some of these figures (for instance the non-farm payrolls) are also published separately and are even then still of significant importance to the forex market.
The non-farm employment figure is one of the best economic indicators when it comes to giving information about the health of the US economy. Immediately after it's release, the forex market often experiences heavy volatility.
Crude Oil Inventories -- (2)
US indicator. The supplies of crude oil, petrol and derivatives such as kerosine. Is published weakly but because the weakly figure regularly has noise in it (holidays etc) the monthly figure is much more important.
This figure is of great importance to the energy markets and when the results differ greatly from expectations (something that happens regularly) the impact can be high. The importance for the forex market is smaller, but strong reactions on the energy markets can (and have in the past) have strong reactions to the USD.
Construction PMI (Production Managers Index) -- (2)
UK indicator. Monthly report that is based on the opinions of different managers from the construction sector about their economic activities and their purchases. A higher PMI signals an increase in the purchase of materials -there is more construction activity- and thus an increase in the economy as a whole.
This figure is sensitive to wave like movements in the economy and thus gives an accurate image of the state of the British economy.
Housing Starts --(3)
US indicator. (also CAN). Measures the amount of houses where construction has started. Basically this figure shows how much money the public has, because people don't start building a house when they are in a financially bad state. There can also be a relation between this figure and the Interest Rate, because low interest rates mean that it's cheaper to borrow money in order to build a house.
Pending Home Sales -- (3)
US indicator. Measures the contract activity on the existing housing market. Signals a situation ahead of trends in the housing market. Is mainly indicative as far as economic turning points are considered. When less houses are sold this can indicate a stagnation of the economy. (interest is too high, income is too low, or the faith of the consumer in the economy is low).
Building Permits -- (2)
Canadian indicator. These figures describe activities and trends in the home- and business construction sector. An increase signals increasing economic growth.