- Posts: 313
- Thank you received: 0
Market Update 15-8-2011
- Edbeleg
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Elite Member
Less
More
12 years 7 months ago #3465
by Edbeleg
Market Update 15-8-2011 was created by Edbeleg
Wall Street is vrijdag hoger gesloten, waarbij detailhandelsverkopen die vrijwel voldeden aan de verwachtingen een historisch zwak cijfer voor het consumentenvertrouwen teniet deden, waardoor de Dow Jones-index voor het eerst in een maand twee dagen achter elkaar met winst afsloot. De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 1,1% hoger op 11.269,02 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 0,5% tot 1.178,81 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,6% won tot 2.507,98 punten.
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, waarbij een verbod op short-selling in verschillende landen en het cijfer voor de detailhandelsverkopen in de VS voor enige rust zorgden op de markten, ondanks dat het consumentenvertrouwen in de VS een historisch dieptepunt bereikte. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 4,2% hoger op 2.307,33. De DAX-30 steeg 3,5% tot 5.997,74, de CAC-40 sloot 4,0% hoger op 3.213,88 en de FTSE-100 won 3,0% op 5.320,03. De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met een ruime winst gesloten, in navolging van het stevige herstel dat zich donderdag op Wall Street aandiende.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 3,2% hoger op 291,90 punten, de Midkap won 3,4% op 485,00 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 1,9% hoger op 438,03 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag licht lager gesloten, vanwege het besef van handelaren dat de economie in de VS blijft worstelen.
De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange 34 dollarcent lager op $85,38. Vergeleken met een week eerder is de prijs voor een vat ruwe olie met $1,50 gedaald.
De obligaties zouden een laatste redmiddel kunnen zijn om te voorkomen dat de monetaire unie uiteen zou vallen. Eerder keerde Duitsland zich, met andere rijke landen, tegen deze stap omdat die de rente zou opdrijven die ze over hun leningen betalen.
Zaterdag nog keerde de Duitse minister van Financiën Wolfgang Schäuble zich in een gesprek met het Duitse tijdschrift Der Spiegel tegen het gebruik van ‘eurobonds’.
Hij zei die uit te sluiten zolang lidstaten vasthouden aan hun eigen financiële beleid. Hij vindt verder dat verschillende rentetarieven nodig zijn om solide monetair beleid zo nodig af te kunnen dwingen. De minister sprak zich uit tegen het tegen elke prijs redden van eurolanden die schuldproblemen hebben. Voor een reddingsplan, zegt hij, moet er draagvlak zijn bij burgers.
Schläuble zegt in het interview ook dat alles erop wijst dat de grootste economie van Europa dit jaar met meer dan 3% zal groeien. Dat is sneller dan de eerdere prognose van de Duitse regering van 2,6%.
Forex
Kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's zegt de kredietwaardigheid van Cyprus misschien omlaag te brengen.
More:
One of the most volatile weeks in market history sparked a bigger flight to safety than the collapse of Lehman Brothers as global investors parked a record $50 billion in money market funds this week, yanking money out of bonds and shares.
Money markets attracted net inflows of $49.8 billion only a week after registering record outflows, according to EPFR Global, a data provider. In the week ending on Wednesday, equity funds had more money pulled out of them than at any time since early 2008, while investors moved faster out of risky junk-rated bonds than at any time since records began in 2005, according to data published on Friday.
The huge degree of risk aversion was revealed as global equity markets rallied, leaving many of them close to where they started the week. But that masked the degree of volatility with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording for the first time seven straight sessions that alternated between ending the day higher one day and lower the next.
“Extraordinary is the very least you can say … The degree of the moves shows the markets are pricing in something really apocalyptic,” said David Shairp, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, pointing to growing expectations of recession.
Investors have spent the week worrying about anaemic economic growth in developed countries and hoping that central banks will intervene to prop up markets. The European Central Bank bought Italian and Spanish bonds on Monday while the US Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates at zero for two years on Tuesday, sending US benchmark borrowing costs to a record low.
The move into money market funds is a striking example of risk aversion as investors will earn next to nothing from being in them.
EPFR said about the fund flows: “An imperfect storm of downgrades, rumours, lacklustre macroeconomic data and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis transformed a retreat by investors into something approaching a stampede.” Equity funds reported collective outflows of $26.1 billion while a record $10.4 billion was pulled from bond funds.
European shares rallied on Friday after France, Italy, Spain and Belgium imposed a 15-day short-selling ban on more than 60 financial institutions. The initiative for the bans was led by France and last night the Financial Market Authority in Paris launched an inquiry into trading in the shares of Société Générale
The French bank lost nearly a quarter of its market value at one stage on Wednesday as various rumours swirled around markets. Regulators said the ban was intended to stop wild rumours spreading rather than eliminate volatility.
The CAC-40 in Paris closed up 4 percent, the Dax-30 in Germany rose 3.5 per cent and the FTSE 100 in London ended 3 percent higher. Both French and German shares, however, remained bear markets, meaning they have fallen more than 20 percent from their highs this year. In midday trading in New York the S&P 500 was up 0.7 percent, still below its starting point for the week.
However, analysts and investors said it was difficult to call the bottom of the market. “It is a very brave call ... There could be 15-20 percent further downside,” said Robert Brown, head of the global investment committee at Towers Watson, a consultant.
Mr Shairp said: “Looking at levels of risk appetite and valuation levels it is starting to look more compelling. But what has been striking is how quickly markets have moved from relative normality to extremes.”
Euro 1.4295
Initial support at 1.4104 (Aug 11 low) followed by 1.4055 (Aug 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4401 (Aug 11 high) followed by 1.4454 (Aug 1 high)
The market continues to adhere to a bearish sequence of lower tops since May, with a fresh lower top now in place by 1.4535 ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. In the interim, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4400, while only back above 1.4500 delays.
posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to renew the rally off July's low.
USD/CHF closed higher on Friday and The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it renews this year's decline into uncharted territory, downside targets will be hard to project.
Yen 77.85
Initial support is located at 76.25 (Mar 15 low) followed by 75.00 (Psych level). Initial resistance is now at 77.31 (Aug 10 high) followed by 78.47 (Aug 8 high).
closed lower on Friday and The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew this summer's decline into uncharted territory. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would signal that a double bottom with the early-August low has been posted.
Pound 1.6280
Initial support at 1.6176 (Aug 9 low) followed by 1.6121 (Jul 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Aug 9 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).
closed higher due to short cover on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it renew the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target.
Australian Dollar 1.0400
Initial support at 1.0111 (Aug 11 low) followed by the 1.0000 (Parity support). Initial resistance is now at 1.0500 (Previous support) followed by 1.0600 (Big figure).
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 16:00uur huizenbouw VS, kijkje naar de economische groei van de VS.
Actuele stand 7:30
Nikkei 225 staat hoger op 1.20%, AEX futures geven een vlakke tot lagere opening weer. De CHF zakt weg.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA Group, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Homburg Invest, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Jap, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 01.50 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, augustus, 16.00 uur
DINSDAG 16 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Van Lanschot, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 08.00 uur
- NL, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 09.30 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, juni, 09.30 uur
- NL, vacatures, KW2, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, juni, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, woningbouw, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, juli, 15.15 uur
WOENSDAG 17 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aalberts Industries, cijfers KW2 2011
- Tie Holding, trading update KW3 2010-11
- Holland colours, trading update KW1 2011-12
- Boskalis, bava
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, juni, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, juli, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 augustus, 13.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 12 augustus, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 18 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- SBM Offshore; halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Boskalis, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Corio, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
- Unit4, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Grontmij, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, juli, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 13 augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, inflatie, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, juli, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, juli, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 19 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Dockwise, cijfers KW2 2011
- Groothandelsgebouwen, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
- ASR, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, juli, 08.00 uur
MAANDAG 22 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brill, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten-
De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten, waarbij een verbod op short-selling in verschillende landen en het cijfer voor de detailhandelsverkopen in de VS voor enige rust zorgden op de markten, ondanks dat het consumentenvertrouwen in de VS een historisch dieptepunt bereikte. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 4,2% hoger op 2.307,33. De DAX-30 steeg 3,5% tot 5.997,74, de CAC-40 sloot 4,0% hoger op 3.213,88 en de FTSE-100 won 3,0% op 5.320,03. De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met een ruime winst gesloten, in navolging van het stevige herstel dat zich donderdag op Wall Street aandiende.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 3,2% hoger op 291,90 punten, de Midkap won 3,4% op 485,00 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 1,9% hoger op 438,03 punten.
De olieprijs is vrijdag licht lager gesloten, vanwege het besef van handelaren dat de economie in de VS blijft worstelen.
De septemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange 34 dollarcent lager op $85,38. Vergeleken met een week eerder is de prijs voor een vat ruwe olie met $1,50 gedaald.
De obligaties zouden een laatste redmiddel kunnen zijn om te voorkomen dat de monetaire unie uiteen zou vallen. Eerder keerde Duitsland zich, met andere rijke landen, tegen deze stap omdat die de rente zou opdrijven die ze over hun leningen betalen.
Zaterdag nog keerde de Duitse minister van Financiën Wolfgang Schäuble zich in een gesprek met het Duitse tijdschrift Der Spiegel tegen het gebruik van ‘eurobonds’.
Hij zei die uit te sluiten zolang lidstaten vasthouden aan hun eigen financiële beleid. Hij vindt verder dat verschillende rentetarieven nodig zijn om solide monetair beleid zo nodig af te kunnen dwingen. De minister sprak zich uit tegen het tegen elke prijs redden van eurolanden die schuldproblemen hebben. Voor een reddingsplan, zegt hij, moet er draagvlak zijn bij burgers.
Schläuble zegt in het interview ook dat alles erop wijst dat de grootste economie van Europa dit jaar met meer dan 3% zal groeien. Dat is sneller dan de eerdere prognose van de Duitse regering van 2,6%.
Forex
Kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's zegt de kredietwaardigheid van Cyprus misschien omlaag te brengen.
More:
One of the most volatile weeks in market history sparked a bigger flight to safety than the collapse of Lehman Brothers as global investors parked a record $50 billion in money market funds this week, yanking money out of bonds and shares.
Money markets attracted net inflows of $49.8 billion only a week after registering record outflows, according to EPFR Global, a data provider. In the week ending on Wednesday, equity funds had more money pulled out of them than at any time since early 2008, while investors moved faster out of risky junk-rated bonds than at any time since records began in 2005, according to data published on Friday.
The huge degree of risk aversion was revealed as global equity markets rallied, leaving many of them close to where they started the week. But that masked the degree of volatility with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording for the first time seven straight sessions that alternated between ending the day higher one day and lower the next.
“Extraordinary is the very least you can say … The degree of the moves shows the markets are pricing in something really apocalyptic,” said David Shairp, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, pointing to growing expectations of recession.
Investors have spent the week worrying about anaemic economic growth in developed countries and hoping that central banks will intervene to prop up markets. The European Central Bank bought Italian and Spanish bonds on Monday while the US Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates at zero for two years on Tuesday, sending US benchmark borrowing costs to a record low.
The move into money market funds is a striking example of risk aversion as investors will earn next to nothing from being in them.
EPFR said about the fund flows: “An imperfect storm of downgrades, rumours, lacklustre macroeconomic data and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis transformed a retreat by investors into something approaching a stampede.” Equity funds reported collective outflows of $26.1 billion while a record $10.4 billion was pulled from bond funds.
European shares rallied on Friday after France, Italy, Spain and Belgium imposed a 15-day short-selling ban on more than 60 financial institutions. The initiative for the bans was led by France and last night the Financial Market Authority in Paris launched an inquiry into trading in the shares of Société Générale
The French bank lost nearly a quarter of its market value at one stage on Wednesday as various rumours swirled around markets. Regulators said the ban was intended to stop wild rumours spreading rather than eliminate volatility.
The CAC-40 in Paris closed up 4 percent, the Dax-30 in Germany rose 3.5 per cent and the FTSE 100 in London ended 3 percent higher. Both French and German shares, however, remained bear markets, meaning they have fallen more than 20 percent from their highs this year. In midday trading in New York the S&P 500 was up 0.7 percent, still below its starting point for the week.
However, analysts and investors said it was difficult to call the bottom of the market. “It is a very brave call ... There could be 15-20 percent further downside,” said Robert Brown, head of the global investment committee at Towers Watson, a consultant.
Mr Shairp said: “Looking at levels of risk appetite and valuation levels it is starting to look more compelling. But what has been striking is how quickly markets have moved from relative normality to extremes.”
Euro 1.4295
Initial support at 1.4104 (Aug 11 low) followed by 1.4055 (Aug 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4401 (Aug 11 high) followed by 1.4454 (Aug 1 high)
The market continues to adhere to a bearish sequence of lower tops since May, with a fresh lower top now in place by 1.4535 ahead of the next downside extension back towards and eventually below 1.4000. In the interim, look for any intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4400, while only back above 1.4500 delays.
posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to renew the rally off July's low.
USD/CHF closed higher on Friday and The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it renews this year's decline into uncharted territory, downside targets will be hard to project.
Yen 77.85
Initial support is located at 76.25 (Mar 15 low) followed by 75.00 (Psych level). Initial resistance is now at 77.31 (Aug 10 high) followed by 78.47 (Aug 8 high).
closed lower on Friday and The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew this summer's decline into uncharted territory. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would signal that a double bottom with the early-August low has been posted.
Pound 1.6280
Initial support at 1.6176 (Aug 9 low) followed by 1.6121 (Jul 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Aug 9 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).
closed higher due to short cover on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it renew the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target.
Australian Dollar 1.0400
Initial support at 1.0111 (Aug 11 low) followed by the 1.0000 (Parity support). Initial resistance is now at 1.0500 (Previous support) followed by 1.0600 (Big figure).
Belangrijk forex tijden van vandaag zijn: 16:00uur huizenbouw VS, kijkje naar de economische groei van de VS.
Actuele stand 7:30
Nikkei 225 staat hoger op 1.20%, AEX futures geven een vlakke tot lagere opening weer. De CHF zakt weg.
De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA Group, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Homburg Invest, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Jap, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 01.50 uur
- VS, vertrouwen huizenbouwers, augustus, 16.00 uur
DINSDAG 16 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Van Lanschot, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 08.00 uur
- NL, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 09.30 uur
- NL, omzet detailhandel, juni, 09.30 uur
- NL, vacatures, KW2, 09.30 uur
- Eurozone, economische groei, KW2 (eerste raming), 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, juni, 11.00 uur
- VS, importprijzen, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, woningbouw, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, juli, 15.15 uur
WOENSDAG 17 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aalberts Industries, cijfers KW2 2011
- Tie Holding, trading update KW3 2010-11
- Holland colours, trading update KW1 2011-12
- Boskalis, bava
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, lopende rekening, juni, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, juli, 11.00 uur
- VS, hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 augustus, 13.00 uur
- VS, producentenprijzen, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, olievoorraden, week eindigend op 12 augustus, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 18 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- SBM Offshore; halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Boskalis, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Corio, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
- Unit4, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Grontmij, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, juli, 09.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, augustus, 09.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 13 augustus, 14.30 uur
- VS, inflatie, juli, 14.30 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, juli, 16.00 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, juli, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 19 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brunel, halfjaarcijfers 2011
- Dockwise, cijfers KW2 2011
- Groothandelsgebouwen, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
- ASR, halfjaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, juli, 08.00 uur
MAANDAG 22 AUGUSTUS
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Brill, halfjaarcijfers 2011, nabeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten-
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Moderators: Jelle, Representative
Time to create page: 0.209 seconds