Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 APRIL 2013

• US Dollar Looks to Earnings Docket, FOMC Minutes for Direction Cues
• Italian Bill Sale Headlines Otherwise Quiet European Economic Calendar
• Australian Dollar Gains as Chinese Import Growth Soars Past Forecasts

The spotlight turns to the fourth-quarter corporate earnings calendar. Reports from alcohol beverage maker Constellation Brands Inc and discount retailer Family Dollar StoresInc may offer insight on the health of the US consumer against the backdrop of fiscal austerity following January’s payroll tax hike and the recent onset of “sequester” spending cuts. Industrial and construction supplies provider Fastenal Co will be looked upon as a gauge of overall global growth trends. Encouraging cues may boost risk appetite and weigh on the US Dollar.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 APRIL 2013


• Gold, Silver Prices May Rise as Soft US Economic Data Underpins QE Outlook
• Crude Oil and Copper at Risk if Signs of Slowing US Growth Sink Risk Trends

Commodity prices are little-changed ahead of the US trading session the as traders look past a lackluster calendar of European event risk to focus on the US data docket. The March Retail Sales report is expected to show receipts stalled after rising 1.1 percent in February, yielding the weakest result in five months. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index gauge for the same period is forecast to show wholesale inflation slowed over the same period while April’s preliminary Consumer Confidence reading from the University of Michigan ticks narrowly downward. On balance, a soft outing is likely to scatter expectations for a tapering of Fed QE efforts and boost demand for goldand silver amid renewed US Dollar dilution fears. Crude oil and copper may follow stocks lower however as growth slowdown jitters fuel risk aversion.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 APRIL 2013

• Euro Looks to Draghi Comments as Filter to Interpret German, EZ Data
• British Pound Unlikely to Find Market-Moving Cues in Flat Inflation Reading
• Dollar and Yen Retreat, Kiwi Outperforms as Markets Digest Risk Aversion

TheGerman ZEWSurvey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The report is expected to show sentiment deteriorated for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, year-on-year Eurozone CPI is seen ticking downward to 1.7 percent, the lowest since August 2010.

While such outcomes amplify the case for added ECB stimulus, ample evidence to this effect has already proven ineffective at swaying the central bank to step up easing over recent months. This means the Euro is unlikely to find a lasting driver in either data point absent clear-cut cues in favor of more accommodation from ECB President Mario Draghi when he speaks in the European Parliament later in the day.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 APRIL 2013


• Dollar Retreats, USD/JPY Advances as Risk Aversion Move Cools
• British Pound Still Detached from Policy Speculation, BoE Minutes Ahead
• Japanese Yen Corrects After Biggest Rally in Years as G20 Concerns Ease
• Euro Offers Up Market-Wide Advance Despite IMF Forecast, Weak ZEW
• Canadian Dollar Traders Look for that Rate Hike Hope in BoC Rate Decision
• New Zealand Dollar Puts in for a Short Lived Rally After 1Q CPI Data
• Gold Stabilizes but Doesn’t Reverse as Volume, ETF Outflow Still High


Dollar Retreats, USD/JPY Advances as Risk Aversion Move Cools
There was fundamental data flow for dollar traders to absorb Monday, but the more distant and nuanced aspects of speculating on the QE3 downshift were drowned out by risk trends on the day. Following the steepest decline from the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average Monday – a move that stoked demand for a safe haven like the greenback – a commensurate rebound would put out the benchmark currency’s primary fundamental spark. Important to establishing the dollar’s sensitivity to sentiment in the capital flows is to assess the ‘depth’ of a risk-based market movement. Though it may not have been an outright jump to chase higher yields while disregarding future risks to the system; a uniform advance in equities, yen crosses, commodities and Treasury yields spoke to a clear theme.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 APRIL 2013

• Dollar Posts Another Rally But Still Short of Bull Trend
• Euro Tumbles as Market Makes Currency Pay for Undeserved Rally
• British Pound Ignores BoE’s Refusal of Stimulus, Hit by Jobs
• Japanese Yen Thwarts Tumble as US Equities Anchor to Support
• Canadian Dollar Eases Against USD Despite Carney’s Hawkish Rhetoric
• Australian Dollar Risks Growing as Bond Yields Drop, Risk Trend Unstable
• Gold Consolidation Established Below $1,400, Bear Trend Solidifying


Dollar Posts Another Rally But Still Short of Bull Trend
The dollar posted a remarkable performance this past session. Leveraging a rally against all its most liquid counterparts – between both high yield currencies like the Australian dollar and fellow safe havens like the Japanese yen – the greenback managed its strongest move in nearly 10 months. Putting a number to the performance, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index enjoyed a 0.8 percent rally – the best move for the benchmark since June 21, 2012. Fundamentally speaking, this performance wasn’t too surprising. There was a clear sense of risk aversion that fed the greenback’s safe haven status.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 APRIL 2013

• Dollar Turns Eerily Quiet as S&P 500 Makes Tentative Break Lower
• Euro Fundamental Assessment Continues to Deteriorate
• Japanese Yen an Opportunity for Speculators but a Lasting Driver?
• British Pound Advances Again Despite BoE Weales, Carney’s Comments
• Australian Dollar and New Zealand 10 Percent Overvalued?
• Canadian Dollar: Carney Says Rate Hikes May Come Sooner
• Gold Volatility and Volume Continue to Recede, Price and Demand Unimpressed


Dollar Turns Eerily Quiet as S&P 500 Makes Tentative Break Lower
Market conditions are offering conflicting signals – and it should alarm rather than soothe vigilant traders. On the one hand this past session, there were a number of signs of a return to congestion. The safe haven US dollar put in for an exceptionally quiet trading session and momentum cooled behind the capital markets’ violent swings. On the other hand, there is still an active backdrop of growing investor ‘fear’. Point in case, we find the VIX volatility index advanced to a new six-week high 17.6 percent and the extreme divergences in otherwise stalwart correlations (world equities – emerging market currencies, S&P 500 – US Treasury yields) have started to tighten. This speaks to a thinly veiled and uneasy calm. It isn’t difficult to spark dramatic capital shifts under these conditions, but do we have the fundamentals to sustain it?


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 APRIL 2013


• Dollar Shies Away from 1.3000 Against Euro, 100 Versus Yen
• Japanese Yen: USD/JPY Destined for a 100 Break if Risk Behaves
• Euro Mixed Between Deficit Data and Fading Structural Risk Pressure
• New Zealand Dollar: Choose Your Pair Carefully for RBNZ Reaction
• Australian Dollar Slips after China Manufacturing Data Cools
• British Pound: London Markets Little Moved by Fitch Downgrade
• Gold Advances a Fifth Straight Day, Yet to Retrace Half of Preceding Decline

Dollar Shies Away from 1.3000 Against Euro, 100 Versus Yen
The edge of the market’s angst last week was dulled Monday – helping risk trends stabilize for a mild bounce from US equities and notable slip from the safe haven US dollar. Yet, while the regular hallmarks of risk appetite were readily visible (equities rise, implied volatility readings drop, safe havens falter), there was very conviction in the appetite for risk exposure. For the benchmark dollar, tempered appetite for liquidity – top priority when fear grips the broader markets – meant that the move to fresh two-and-a-half year highs was shut down. From the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, an intraday advance to 10,579 established a technical high; but the currency was beat back before the close. That same restraint was handed down through the dollar-denominated ‘majors’. EURUSD bounced just after coming within 15 pips of 1.3000, AUDUSD recovered 30 pips from its session low at six-week lows and even USDJPY failed on a run to 100.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 APRIL 2013


• Dollar Leverages Gains on Mixed Risk, Equities Showing
• Euro: Is Speculation of an ECB Rate Cut Rational?
• Japanese Yen Unwinds Gains as Market Hopes for More from BoJ
• New Zealand Dollar Jumps after RBNZ Holds Rates, Is this a False Move?
• Australian Dollar: Inflation Speeds Up but at a Slower Pace, RBA Reaction?
• Canadian Dollar Climbs as Retail Sales Rise, Carney Maintains Hawkish Tone
• Gold Calls a Halt to its Recovery Bull Leg, Next Move Needs Conviction



Dollar Leverages Gains on Mixed Risk, Equities Showing
We are seeing another serious fundamental divergence. The S&P 500 – as a benchmark for risk appetite – has charged higher for three consecutive days while the FX safe haven Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has closed at a fresh multi-year high. This hand-in-hand move breaks the normal conventions of capital moving into either high-return or safe assets. That said, it isn’t a particularly uncommon sight nowadays. There are some that think that this is a sign that the greenback is playing the role of a ‘carry’ currency, but themore plausible scenario is that risk trends themselves are not offering a strong and consistent drive.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 APRIL 2013

• Dollar Can’t Gain Traction at Multi-Year Highs, Watch USD/JPY
• British Pound: GBP/USD Breakout Expected on UK GDP
• Japanese Yen in the Bank of Japan Pull
• Euro: Building Up Market Speculation Around Rate Expectations
• Australian Dollar: RBA Announces FX Diversification, Rate Outlook Falling
• New Zealand Dollar Manages to Hold Gains after RBNZ Hold
• Gold: Stories of Physical Demand Contrast Sharp Drop in Trading



Dollar Can’t Gain Traction at Multi-Year Highs, Watch USD/JPY
Another day, another two-and-a-half year high from the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index. Yet, ‘new high’ gives a false sense of strength to the lackluster greenback. In reality, the benchmark currency has made little effort to capitalize on its move above March’s swing high and in fact has utterly failed to generate meaningful follow through to convince the market that the bulls are in charge. The issue remains the headwinds seen in risk trends. While the safe haven dollar is climbing, so too is the S&P 500 leading global equities to hearty gains. While the two can move in concert to some degree thanks to the competitive monetary policy programs across the world, a genuine trend requires the support of the more elemental themes. The best way for USDollar to overtake 10,600 is for a maket-wide risk aversion. Otherwise, we could arrive at the same outcome – though likely with limited immediate follow through – with a USDJPY break above 100.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 APRIL 2013


• Dollar Traders Look for Risk Trend Surge with 1Q GDP
• Japanese Yen: BoJ Made its Move Last Decision, Yen’s Turn?
• Euro: Economists and Media Expect ECB Rate Cut, Not the Market
• British Pound Rallies after Strong UK GDP Thwarts Triple Dip Recession
• Australian Turns Higher with Solid Risk Trends, Robust Bond Auction
• New Zealand Dollar Doesn’t Extend Rally with Trade Data, Overbought?
• Gold Posts Best Day in 10 Months, Volume and Open Interest Still Fading

Dollar Traders Look for Risk Trend Surge with 1Q GDP
The dollar retreated this past session asbenchmarks for risk-sensitive capital markets reflected buoyancy behind yielding chasing and the struggles of the currency’s primary counterparts seemed to temper. This is a passive shift in market sentiment, however, easily shattered by an active fundamental catalyst. It so happens that we will be presented with a well-suited catalyst for speculative appetites as well as direct dollar asset interest in the upcoming New York session.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 APRIL 2013


• Euro Looks to German CPI Data to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision
• US Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms as Asia Responds to US GDP Miss

April’s preliminary set of German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to hold at 1.4 percent, matching a 28-month low recorded in the prior month. Traders are likely to see the release as setting the stage for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. With that in mind, a soft print stands to bolster calls for an interest rate cut and weigh on the Euro. Needless to say, the same dynamics are likely to push the single currency higher in the event of an upside surprise.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 APRIL 2013

• Dollar on the Verge of Critical Bearish Break
• Euro Traders Should be Wary of Heavy Volatility Potential Tomorrow
• Japanese Yen Recovery Slows, Data Mixed
• British Pound Slides as the Unwind in Stimulus Expectations Slow
• Canadian Dollar Charges down to 1.0100 Ahead of February GDP
• Swiss Franc Traders Await SNB’s Figures for the First Quarter
• Gold Moves to Mid-Point of Past Month’s Range, $1,500 Important

Dollar on the Verge of Critical Bearish Break
Fundamentally speaking, the dollar has run astray of its safe haven role – allowed to deviate thanks to a lack of clear conviction in speculators’ outlook for the markets. Yet, when a lasting fundamental discrepancy – such as the one the greenback has been running – faces a tumultuous technical setup and potent event risk, passive threats have a tendency to turn kinetic. From the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, we find a congestion pattern that has developed over the past two months. Having retreated from the mid-point (50 percent retracement) of the 2009 to 2011 bear wave near 10,600 for the second time, we now find the benchmark at the floor of the congestion pattern. The same boundaries to an extended dollar decline are perceptible amongst the major. EURUSD is hesitating once again below 1.3000, GBPUSD is slowing before its midpoint of the 2013 range at 1.5575 and USDJPY has moved away from 100.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 MEI 2013

• Dollar at Risk of Reversal if Fed Hints at More QE
• Euro Strengthens after Cyprus Approves Bailout, Slovenia Next?
• Japanese Yen Consolidation Looks Dangerously Like Breakout Risk
• Swiss Franc Posts Impressive Rally as SNB Reports 11.2 Billion Profit
• Canadian Dollar Rallies a Fifth Day against Greenback on GDP Data
• Australian Dollar Little Moved Despite 4 Year Low in Manufacturing
• Gold at Risk of Breakout as Congestion Solidifies, FOMC Approaches

Dollar at Risk of Reversal if Fed Hints at More QE
With Tuesday’s 0.3 percent decline, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has dropped for five consecutive days. Matching the longest series of declines since January 2012, we may see a true break to trend reversal depending on how the Fed judges policy. A look at the greenback’s chart presents a currency at the floor of a two-month congestion pattern just above 10,400 and meaningfully capped by 10,600 – the mid-point of the index’s range over the past five years. In other words, this aggregate measure of the US dollar reflects indecision at a two-and-a-half year high; which presents a considerable risk of reversal. The same risk is present with many of the greenback’s most liquid counterparts. EURUSD stands just below 1.3200, USDJPY is eying 96.50 and GBPUSD is knocking on the mid-point of this year’s range at 1.5575. A definitive catalyst is the best means for sparking a breakdown or driving the dollar back from the brink.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MEI 2013

• Dollar Pulls Back from the Brink after Fed Holds
• Euro Faces Reversal Risk on ECB Rate Decision after Four-Day Rally
• Australian and New Zealand Dollars Plunge as Yields Hit Extreme Lows
• Japanese Yen Activity Levels Suggest Breakout Imminent
• Crude Oil Tumbles after US Inventories Hit Record Highs
• Gold Reserves Tight Congestion with a Bearish Break

Dollar Pulls Back from the Brink after Fed Holds
To many, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision this past session was a write off because it didn’t spark immediate volatility. However, a hold by the world’s largest central bank means that an $85 billion-per-month stimulus program remains in place. Consequently, one of the largest individual contributors to market-wide distortions in investment activities and asset prices remains in place. So, while there may not have been a short-term breakout move from the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, pairing like USDJPY or risk benchmark like S&P 500; it certainly colors the backdrop for trends moving forward.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 MEI 2013


• Dollar Likely to Find Greater Drive in NFPs than FOMC
• Euro Slammed by ECB Rate Cut, Threats for More
• Japanese Yen: BoJ Governor Confirms Stimulus Cap, Sees No Asset Bubble
• Swiss Franc Extends Longest Rally Versus Euro Since May 2011
• Canadian Dollar: What Will the New BoC Governor Bring for the Loonie?
• Oil Posts Biggest Rally in 6 Months After Supply-Glut Plunge
• Gold Tempers Wednesday’s Bearish Break as ECB Nibbles at Stimulus

Dollar Likely to Find Greater Drive in NFPs than FOMC
The dollar advanced against all of its primary counterparts this past session – a move that contradicted the prevailing risk trend for the session and notably spared the greenback from critical support. This could prove a fortuitous move for the currency considering the heavy event risk through the final trading day of the week. Given the typical sway the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPs) have over general sentiment trends and its history as a volatility fan, it would have been particularly easy to force the dollar into the next leg of a structural bear wave. Yet, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index up appreciably from 10,400, EURUSD nearly 200 pips below 1.3250 and USDJPY avoiding the 96.50; there is comfortable breathing room should the upcoming event risk ‘disappoint’.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 MEI 2013

• Euro: German Factory Orders Top Forecast, More ECB Support Ahead
• British Pound: Continues to Consolidate Ahead of BoE Rate Decision
• U.S. Dollar: Extends Advance- Consumer Credit on Tap

Euro: German Factory Orders Top Forecast, More ECB Support Ahead
The Euro advanced to a high of 1.3130 as German Factory Orders unexpectedly increased another 2.2% March, while there’s reports Portugal will auction 10-year bonds for the first time since the 2011 bailout amid easing finance costs in Europe.

However, it seems as though the governments operating under the single currency are becoming increasingly reliant on monetary support as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy calls upon the European Central Bank (ECB) to introduce additional programs to help finance small businesses, while Euro Group President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the region needs tools to recapitalize commercial banks as the ECB plans to conduct asset-quality review of financial institutions.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 MEI 2013

• Dollar Advances Fourth Time in Five Days as Dow Crosses 15,000
• Euro Torn Between Portugal’s Successful Return to Market, Background Fears
• Australian Dollar Slides Towards 1.0150 Cliff after RBA Rate Cut
• New Zealand Dollar Drops Sharply After RBNZ Says it Sold Kiwi
• Japanese Yen High Enjoys Universal Strength Without Tangible Carry Unwind
• British Pound Loses Ground to Euro, Dollar Despite Jump in 10 Year Gilt Yield
• Gold Establishes Range between $1,490 and $1,440, Awaits Dollar

Dollar Advances Fourth Time in Five Days as Dow Crosses 15,000
The fundamentally, unnatural correlation between the dollar and capital markets continues. This past session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 15,000 for the first time in history. However, despite the implications this move carries for risk-appetite; the safe haven greenback was also up on the day. In fact, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has climbed four out of the past five trading session and is once again within striking distance of the mid-point (10,600) of the benchmark’s range over the past decade. As discussed before, this is not evidence of the dollar changing its role as a safe haven. We are seeing what happens when there is a lack of conviction in risk-based trends. More importantly, we are seeing evidence of severe inconsistencies as traditional benchmarks (equities, high-yield, etc) hit extremes.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MEI 2013


• Dollar Doesn’t Defy Record High S&P 500, Dow Today
• Australian Dollar Posts Biggest Rally in 2 Months On Strong Jobs Report
• British Pound: Low Probability, High Impact BoE Rate Decision
• New Zealand Dollar Holds On to Losses after RBNZ Announces Intervention
• Euro Advances, Delays 1.3000 Reckoning on Data, Stimulus Support Talk
• Japanese Yen Breakout Risk Excessive Once Again, Trade Data Ahead
• Gold: Can the BoE’s Efforts Offset the Insatiable Appetite for Yield?

Dollar Doesn’t Defy Record High S&P 500, Dow Today
As fundamentally-troubled as the capital market’s climb in risk trends may be, it is difficult to fight a current that has driven traders to hunt for yield and return wherever they can find it. The same controversial trend helped carry the moral hazard-sensitive S&P 500 to yet another record high this past session, while the dollar finally took a break from its counter-trend effort. The greenback slid against all of its major counterparts this past session which subsequently lead to the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index to pitch lower and print its first lower low since the most recent upswing began last Wednesday. Yet, despite the bias shift, we have yet to see a critical bearish break for the benchmark currency – whether in pairings or from the Index. The question is how long it can fight the current.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 MEI 2013

• Japanese Yen Continues to Sink in Asia, Deeper Losses Seen Ahead
• G7 Likely to Take Accommodative Tone on Fiscal, Monetary Policy

The Japanese Yen continued to sink in overnight trade, down as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts, as risk appetite firmed across most Asian stock exchanges and encouraged capital flows out of the go-to funding currency. The Nikkei led regional bourses higher, a move the newswires attributed back to the Yen to suggest a feedback loop whereby the currency’s weakness fed upon itself. The benchmark USDJPY exchange rate topped the psychologically significant 100.00 mark for the first time in four years earlier in the day after US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in over 5 years. This rebooted expectations for a near-term tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus efforts, offering broad-based support to the US Dollar.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 MEI 2013

• Dollar Starting to Lose Ground with EUR/USD, USD/JPY
• Euro Gains Limited Ground on News of Cyprus, Greek Rescue Payments
• Japanese Yen Given Another Reprieve by G7, but Does that Keep the Yen Falling?
• New Zealand Dollar: Look Beyond Immediate Volatility In Morning Data
• Australian Dollar: Federal Budget Expected to Reflect Impact of High Aussie Dollar
• Swiss Franc: Does a Retail Sales Plunge or Shift in Swiss Rates Matter More?
• Gold Slides Below $1,440 as Volume Drops and Volatility Jumps

Dollar Starting to Lose Ground with EUR/USD, USD/JPY
Through Monday’s close, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index managed to close a third consecutive day in the green. That is the longest series of gains from the benchmark in five weeks – and a worthy move in a break through a key level like 10,600. And yet, that may be the entire foundation to the benchmark currency’s strength. If the dollar’s progress is merely breakout momentum via the Index’s move through the mid-point of the past decade’s range, USDJPY’s move beyond 100 and AUDUSD slide below parity; it will likely be difficult to sustain momentum. We have seen a very similar set of circumstances guide gold around a month ago. The aggressive break below $1,500 was certainly the culmination of overwrought expectations from a flagging alternative store of wealth that paid no yield; but its momentum was defined by a tripping a dense round of entry and stop orders. After these order play through, the speculative run ends and requires genuine fundamental support to keep running. The dollar needs another push. It needs a definitive turn in the US equities and stimulus expectations.

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