Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 JUNI 2014

• Dollar: The Fed’s Favored Inflation Reading Due
• British Pound at Risk of Retreat if BoE Makes Moves on Financial Stability
• Yen Crosses Weigh CPI Impact on QE Hopes Versus Influence of Risk Trends

Dollar: The Fed’s Favored Inflation Reading Due
As quickly as the Dollar’s gains were tallied, they were quickly retraced this past session. Without a convincing argument for capital to move to the US and its currency – say an appeal for safety or a competitive yield outlook – a volatile move in the greenback’s favor will be quickly smothered. From the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar), the 0.2 percent retreat virtually offset Tuesday’s rally before it could gain traction for a lasting move. In this retreat, the benchmark lost ground against all but the British Pound – the session’s worst performer. Notably, both EURUSD and USDJPY put in noteworthy anti-dollar breaks; though they were more technical than systemic. EURUSD’s move above 1.3625 and USDJPY’s drop below 101.75 lost momentum almost immediately after the breaks were achieved. Though the market is reticent about feeding a strong dollar bull run, it is proving equally dubious of a lasting selloff.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 JUNI 2014

• Euro May Renew Downward Push if German CPI Disappoints
• British Pound Risks Tilted to the Downside on UK GDP Revision
• Yen Gains as CPI, Jobs Data Hints BOJ to Withhold Stimulus

The preliminary set of June’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to rise to 1 percent after dropping to a four-year low of 0.9 percent in the prior month. Price growth data out of the Eurozone’s largest economy has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations over recent months, according to data from Citigroup. That hints that analysts are underestimating the extent of disinflation and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the Euro as traders build out expectations for a further expansion of ECB stimulus after the central bank pledged to step up efforts to create a QE-like asset purchase program at June’s policy meeting.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKTANALYSE 30 JUNI 2014

• Top-tier economic data this week offers volatility catalysts
• Crude oil vulnerable to correction on unfounded supply fears
• Silver pullback leaves prices at key support near 20.80

Gold and crude oil are staring down a potentially volatile trading week with an abundance of top-tier economic data on tap alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions. Brent and WTI may be left vulnerable to a further correction as Iraqi supply fears remain unrealized, while gains for gold hinge on soft US data and a continued slide in the greenback.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JULI 2014

• Dollar Positioned Above Critical Support
• Euro Wins Break Versus Dollar, Appetite More Speculative
• British Pound Scales Highest Level Since 2008

Dollar Positioned Above Critical Support
There were a few high profile technical breaks against the US Dollar through the opening trading session of the week. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD broke recent resistance in a drive that contradicted the overbearing expectation for a liquidity drain as the week wears into the US Independence Day market holiday. This technical event was enough to gain traders’ attention, but it isn’t likely enough to instigate a self-generating trend against the underlying current of participation. On a chart, that is well reflected in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) moving up to 16-month support – not yet a break. Practically speaking, any attempts to move to the next stage of a more dynamic trend will find shallow market depth short circuits breakouts and volatility events before they catch.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 JULI 2014

• British Pound Eyeing UK Construction PMI to Drive BOE Policy Outlook
• US Dollar Looks to ADP Data, Yellen Comments to Set the Stage for NFP
• Australian Dollar Drops in Asia on Disappointing Trade Balance Report

The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours, with June’s UK Construction PMI reading amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk. The measure is expected to decline for the fifth consecutive period, dropping to an eight-month low of 59.8. An upside surprise similar to yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI outcome is likely to feed BOE rate hike speculation and drive the British Pound higher after prices rose to the strongest level in nearly six years yesterday. Needless to say, an underwhelming result stands to produce the opposite effect.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 JULI 2014

• Euro Looks to ECB Rate Decision for Hints on Future Stimulus Expansion
• US Dollar to Rise if Nonfarm Payrolls Tops Forecasts, Boosts Fed Outlook
• Australian Dollar Sharply Lower in Asia on Comments from RBA’s Stevens

A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the calendar in European hours. The introduction of anything new into the policy mix highly unlikely after Mario Draghi and company announced a slew of additional measures to boost lending and fight disinflation at June’s meeting. Officials will likely want to monitor how those are working out before expanding stimulus further.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 JULI 2014

• Bumper NFPs spark sharp short-lived gold spike
• Crude oil remains vulnerable to ebbing supply concerns
• Gold to remain elevated on light US docket

Crude oil and gold are holding steady in Asian trading today after a stellar US Non-Farm Payrollsprint catalyzed a volatile US session on Thursday. Over the week ahead geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the direction of the US Dollar will likely offer gold and crude oil guidance.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 JULI 2014

• Silver slips as US Dollar recovers ground in Asian trade
• Palladium breaks out as production concerns linger
• Crude oil crumbles as Middle East supply fears fade

Gold and silver are losing ground in late Asian trading today (-0.49 percent and -0.99 percent respectively) as the greenback resumes its upward trajectory following the 4th of July holiday on Friday. Also in the precious metal space; palladium has hit its highest level in 13 years on the back of lingering production concerns coupled with a strong outlook for demand.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 JULI 2014

• British Pound May Pull Back if Industrial Production Data Disappoints
• Euro Focused on ECB Commentary on Stimulus Expansion Speculation
• Australian Dollar Outperformed on Firming RBA Outlook in Asia Trade

UK Industrial Production figures headline a relatively quiet economic calendar in European hours. Output is expected to have added 3.2 percent year-on-year in May, making for the strongest outcome since January 2011. A firm outcome may feed speculation about a looming BOE interest rate hike, pushing the British Pound higher. UK economic data has broadly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since April however. That leaves the door open for a downside surprise as GBP/USD technical positioning reveals hints of a possible downswing ahead.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 JULI 2014

• US Dollar May Rise as FOMC Minutes Bolster Interest Rate Outlook
• British Pound May Not Find Strength in House Price Index Uptick
• Chinese CPI, PPI Figures Fail to Excite Currency Markets Overnight

The major currencies were little-changed in overnight trade as investors waited for the release of minutes from June’s FOMC meeting before committing to a directional bias. The US Dollar fell immediately after the policy announcement in an apparent response to officials’ downgrade of the 2014 US GDP outlook. Traders presumably took this to mean that the time gap between the end of QE asset purchases – expected in the fourth quarter of this year – and the onset of outright interest rate hikes will be relatively large.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 JULI 2014

• BOE Policy Announcement Likely a Non-Event for the British Pound
• US Dollar Looking to Fed Commentary as Markets’ Attitude Evolves
• Australian Dollar Drops on June Jobs Data, Chinese Trade Figures

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Mark Carney and company are widely expected to keep things unchanged yet again. This typically means that a statement illuminating the MPC’s decision will not be released. That will leave traders to wait for the release of minutes from the sit-down on July 23 to get a read on what transpired, making the announcement itself a likely non-event for the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 JULI 2014

• Dollar Torn Between Revived Volatility and Fading Rate Forecasts
• Euro’s Troubles Build as Sovereign and Financial Stability Concerns Revived
• British Pound: Hike Hopes Face True Test Next Week on CPI, Jobs

Dollar Torn Between Revived Volatility and Fading Rate Forecasts
Once again, the Dollar’s two primary fundamental guide-lines were pulling the currency in two different directions. But, traders chose which current they would follow – and in doing so reinforced which will take the reins when push comes to shove. For performance, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index rose this past session – the first time in five trading days – by a modest 0.1 percent. This was an advance in principal, but hardly signaling the birth of a new bull wave. In the greenback’s performance versus its major counterparts, we can derive the fundamental tides of the session. Where the dollar gained against most counterparts USDJPY posted a notable drop and USDCAD was slightly lower. This is the mix we would expect from a ‘risk’ responsive market where the currency is a safe haven versus most except the Japanese yen (a funding currency) and speculative appetite offers little pull for trade partners as intimate as the US and Canada.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 JULI 2014

• Euro Looks to Draghi Testimony for Clues About Stimulus Expansion
• NZ Dollar Narrowly Higher on Firming RBNZ Bets in Overnight Trade
• What Will Drive Forex Markets in the Days? See Our Weekly Outlook

Testimony from ECB President Draghi is in focus in European trading hours. Traders will be most keen to learn any details about the central bank’s work on an ABS asset purchase program. Policymakers promised to step up work on such an effort in June. The markets will be looking to gauge whether the ECB has already decided to implement ABS asset purchases – meaning stimulus expansion is in train – or if the scheme is intended to sit in the central’s toolbox for now. Dovish rhetoric hinting at the former is likely to weigh on the Euro, and vice versa. We are short EUR/USD.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 JULI 2014

• Dollar: What Can Yellen Do For (To) the Dollar?
• British Pound Looks for Inflation to Reinforce Rate Outlook
• Euro Gains Despite Draghi Weaponizing Next Policy Move

Dollar: What Can Yellen Do For (To) the Dollar?
A mixed session for the US Dollar and rebound for equities through the opening session of the trading week likely reflects hesitation on traders’ part to commit before meaningful event risk crosses the newswires. With Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen scheduled to testify before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a meaningful probability that interest rate speculation and perhaps even investor sentiment could meet an abrupt change in bearing depending on the cut of the remarks. Yet, where there are a number of variables as to how this event can play out, the lead-in is frequently the same. Consolidation and balancing exposure before such major events is common. Therefore, the buoyancy in the S&P 500 and nudge higher from the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) is less telling than the index’s volume dropping back below 400 million shares and the FX-derived volatility index slammed back towards record lows.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 JULI 2014

• NZ Dollar Falls on CPI Miss, Aussie Dollar Down After Chinese GDP
• British Pound May Not Find Direction in June’s Jobless Claims Data
• US Dollar Eyes Yellen Testimony for Direction Guidance Once Again

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed softer-than-expected CPI figures for the second quarter. The baseline year-on-year inflation rate registered at 1.6 percent, falling short of consensus forecasts calling for a 1.8 percent result. That seemingly undermined RBNZ rate hike expectations, with the slide in the Kiwi tracking a parallel move lower in the New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 JULI 2014

• Dollar Run Drives EURUSD to Key Support, Next Step Difficult
• British Pound, Yields Unable to Rally on Strong Jobs Data
• Euro Falls Despite European Capital Market Bounce

Dollar Run Drives EURUSD to Key Support, Next Step Difficult
Despite a limited economic calendar, the US dollar put up an impressive performance this past session. The question is whether the fundamentally-deficient drive can sustain itself. With the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) facing a larger trend reversal and EURUSD stationed at key support of 1.3500, progress would carry a substantial implication of trend development. In an environment of low volatility and tepid trend generation, a rogue move from such a big player is difficult to generate. Therefore, the probability is that either bulls’ conviction flags or a fundamental driver steps in to take the helm.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 JULY 2014

• Yen May Continue Higher as Geopolitics Drive Risk Aversion
• Canadian Dollar Advanced Before June CPI Data Overnight

The economic calendar is quiet in European hours, with May’s Eurozone Current Account figures the only noteworthy item on the docket. Volatility may be on tap all the same however as geopolitical jitters rattle financial markets. The spotlight is on the Ukraine, where the aftermath of a Malaysian Airlines plane crash continues to play out amid debate about who is responsible for shooting down the civilian craft. Traders are also keeping an eye on the Middle East, where Israel has launched a ground offensive in Gaza.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 JULi 2014

• Gold and silver to face further volatility as traders weigh geopolitical turmoil
• Crude oil left vulnerable as Eastern European tensions de-escalate
• Natural gas sell-off continues as supply builds dominate direction

Crude oil and gold may be in store for another turbulent week as investors assess the potential for the latest flare-up in regional conflicts to escalate. Of further note, precious metals traders could overlook this week’s US inflation data given the limited impact on shaping Fed policy expectations at this point. Finally, natural gas may face further selling pressure as traders continue to unwind long positions on expectations for above average storage builds.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 JULI 2014

• US Dollar Likely to Rise if June’s Inflation Data Outshines Expectations
• Aussie Dollar Higher, Yen Declines as Risk Appetite Firms in Asian Trade

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of June’s US CPI data. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 2.1 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Data from Citigroup suggests US price-growth readings have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may inspire speculation that the time gap between October’s end of Fed QE and the first subsequent interest rate hike will be shorter than expected, driving the US Dollar higher.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 JULI 2014

• British Pound Vulnerable with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight
• Australian Dollar Soars as 2Q CPI Data Inspires RBA Rate Hike Outlook

Minutes from July’s Bank of England meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Monetary policy expectations remain firmly in control of price action. Indeed, the correlation between GBPUSD and the 2-year Gilt yield is now at 0.70, the highest in nearly three years (on 20-day percent change studies).

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