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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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9 years 2 weeks ago #11092
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 6 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 APRIL 2017
• Gold prices continue to stall below trend-defining resistance
• Crude oil prices slump as EIA data shows inventory increase
• Smooth Trump, Xi meeting may weigh on commodity prices
Gold prices dipped toward the floor of their two-week range but swiftly recovered after minutes from the March FOMC meeting crossed the wires. Perhaps most critically, the document showed that central bank staff and about half of the rate-setting committee included an explicit assumption of expansionary fiscal policy in their economic forecasts.
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• Gold prices continue to stall below trend-defining resistance
• Crude oil prices slump as EIA data shows inventory increase
• Smooth Trump, Xi meeting may weigh on commodity prices
Gold prices dipped toward the floor of their two-week range but swiftly recovered after minutes from the March FOMC meeting crossed the wires. Perhaps most critically, the document showed that central bank staff and about half of the rate-setting committee included an explicit assumption of expansionary fiscal policy in their economic forecasts.
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9 years 1 week ago #11094
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 APRIL 2017
• Crude oil, gold prices surge after US missile strike on Syria
• Upbeat US employment data may boost Fed rate speculation
• Commodities vulnerable if Trump, Xi find common ground
Crude oil prices surged to a one-month high after an unexpected US airstrike against Syria stoked worries about regional supply disruption. The move built on yesterday’s gains that saw the WTI benchmark marching higher alongside the S&P 500, hinting a generally risk-on mood offered support for the cycle-sensitive commodity.
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• Crude oil, gold prices surge after US missile strike on Syria
• Upbeat US employment data may boost Fed rate speculation
• Commodities vulnerable if Trump, Xi find common ground
Crude oil prices surged to a one-month high after an unexpected US airstrike against Syria stoked worries about regional supply disruption. The move built on yesterday’s gains that saw the WTI benchmark marching higher alongside the S&P 500, hinting a generally risk-on mood offered support for the cycle-sensitive commodity.
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9 years 1 week ago #11099
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 APRIL 2017
• US Dollar gains as Asian markets price in March US jobs report
• G7 foreign ministers’ meeting may hurt market-wide risk appetite
• Comments from Fed Chair Yellen may boost rate hike speculation
The US Dollar advanced against its G10 counterparts as Asian markets took their turn to price in the Fed policy outlook implications of last week’s jobs data. The Japanese Yen corrected broadly lower having outperformed against the majors last week.
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• US Dollar gains as Asian markets price in March US jobs report
• G7 foreign ministers’ meeting may hurt market-wide risk appetite
• Comments from Fed Chair Yellen may boost rate hike speculation
The US Dollar advanced against its G10 counterparts as Asian markets took their turn to price in the Fed policy outlook implications of last week’s jobs data. The Japanese Yen corrected broadly lower having outperformed against the majors last week.
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9 years 1 week ago #11103
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 APRIL 2017
• Crude oil prices extend gains as US hardens line on Syria
• Gold prices mark time as Yellen hews to policy status quo
• Day 2 of G7 summit, API inventory figures on tap ahead
Crude oil prices continued to push upward as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a tougher line on the conflict in Syria at a meeting with his G7 counterparts. He said the US will “[hold] to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents,” stoking fears of a deepening crisis that may disrupt supply flow.
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• Crude oil prices extend gains as US hardens line on Syria
• Gold prices mark time as Yellen hews to policy status quo
• Day 2 of G7 summit, API inventory figures on tap ahead
Crude oil prices continued to push upward as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a tougher line on the conflict in Syria at a meeting with his G7 counterparts. He said the US will “[hold] to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents,” stoking fears of a deepening crisis that may disrupt supply flow.
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9 years 1 week ago #11106
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 12 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 APRIL 2017
- A surge higher by Gold and the Japanese Yen, and a swoon in US yields suggests traders are indeed seeking safety positions ahead of the long weekend as geopolitical tensions rise in Asia.
- Event risk over next 24-hours caters to likely volatility in AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, and CAD/JPY.
FX and commodity markets are offering a fairly ominous warning to global financial markets: seek shelter from the incoming storm. When non-market/geopolitical risks are rising, particularly around holidays, traders begin to take shelter in safe haven assets like Gold or the Japanese Yen.
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- A surge higher by Gold and the Japanese Yen, and a swoon in US yields suggests traders are indeed seeking safety positions ahead of the long weekend as geopolitical tensions rise in Asia.
- Event risk over next 24-hours caters to likely volatility in AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, and CAD/JPY.
FX and commodity markets are offering a fairly ominous warning to global financial markets: seek shelter from the incoming storm. When non-market/geopolitical risks are rising, particularly around holidays, traders begin to take shelter in safe haven assets like Gold or the Japanese Yen.
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9 years 6 days ago #11108
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 APRIL 2017
• US Dollar sinks after Trump says it is “getting too strong”
• Jawboning impact may swiftly fizzle, sending USD higher
• PPI inflation uptick may help revive Fed rate hike outlook
The US Dollar continued to lose ground against most of its major counterparts in Asian trade having plunged in late North American trade. The selloff followed after US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that it is “getting too strong”.
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• US Dollar sinks after Trump says it is “getting too strong”
• Jawboning impact may swiftly fizzle, sending USD higher
• PPI inflation uptick may help revive Fed rate hike outlook
The US Dollar continued to lose ground against most of its major counterparts in Asian trade having plunged in late North American trade. The selloff followed after US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that it is “getting too strong”.
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9 years 5 days ago #11110
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 APRIL 2017
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- As we wait for the Brexit negotiations to begin, it’s crucial to decide whether the two sides will reach an agreement or the UK will leave the EU without a deal.
- That could mean the difference between GBP/USD at 1.10 or with the pair at 1.50.
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9 years 2 days ago #11114
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 APRIL 2017
• Euro appears vulnerable amid French presidential election worries
• Threat of eurosceptic France may weigh on market-wide risk trends
• Aussie, NZ Dollars may fall as Yen gains if sentiment broadly sours
Worries about the nearing first round of the French presidential election may preoccupy investors as European markets return after the Easter Monday holiday. The leading four candidates are clustered near the 20 percent support mark, making it unusually difficult to divine who might move on to the second round after an initial poll in April 23. The markets are particularly leery of an outcome that pits far-right Marine Le Pen against far-left Jean-Luc Melechon, both of which are seen as potentially destabilizing.
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• Euro appears vulnerable amid French presidential election worries
• Threat of eurosceptic France may weigh on market-wide risk trends
• Aussie, NZ Dollars may fall as Yen gains if sentiment broadly sours
Worries about the nearing first round of the French presidential election may preoccupy investors as European markets return after the Easter Monday holiday. The leading four candidates are clustered near the 20 percent support mark, making it unusually difficult to divine who might move on to the second round after an initial poll in April 23. The markets are particularly leery of an outcome that pits far-right Marine Le Pen against far-left Jean-Luc Melechon, both of which are seen as potentially destabilizing.
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9 years 1 day ago #11116
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 APRIL 2017
• Aussie Dollar drops as bond sale hints at dovish shift in RBA bets
• Yen falls as Japanese stocks rise, US Dollar corrects after selloff
• Firmer risk appetite, sanguine Beige Book may boost Fed outlook
The Australian Dollar fell after a bond auction of 10-year notes saw yields declining even as demand cooled, hinting at dovish shift in investors’ RBA policy outlook. The average yield at the sale fell from 2.81 to 2.52 percent and the bid-to-cover ratio edged down from 3.55 to 3.24 compared with an offering of analogous paper in late March.
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• Aussie Dollar drops as bond sale hints at dovish shift in RBA bets
• Yen falls as Japanese stocks rise, US Dollar corrects after selloff
• Firmer risk appetite, sanguine Beige Book may boost Fed outlook
The Australian Dollar fell after a bond auction of 10-year notes saw yields declining even as demand cooled, hinting at dovish shift in investors’ RBA policy outlook. The average yield at the sale fell from 2.81 to 2.52 percent and the bid-to-cover ratio edged down from 3.55 to 3.24 compared with an offering of analogous paper in late March.
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9 years 1 hour ago #11117
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 APRIL 2017
• Yen drops, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as risk appetite firms
• Euro leads European FX higher on French election optimism
• BOE’s Carney may have muted impact on the British Pound
The Japanese Yen underperformed as investors’ mood brightened in Asian trade, with most regional shares rising and the standby anti-risk currency dutifully heading the other way. The US Dollar likewise fell, erasing the previous session’s recovery.
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• Yen drops, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as risk appetite firms
• Euro leads European FX higher on French election optimism
• BOE’s Carney may have muted impact on the British Pound
The Japanese Yen underperformed as investors’ mood brightened in Asian trade, with most regional shares rising and the standby anti-risk currency dutifully heading the other way. The US Dollar likewise fell, erasing the previous session’s recovery.
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8 years 11 months ago #11118
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 APRIL 2017
• Euro to look past flash PMI data with French election in focus
• Yen edged tellingly higher even as markets’ risk appetite firmed
• NZ Dollar fell cooler housing market stoked dovish RBNZ bets
The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite measures is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth held at the six-year high set in March. The outcome can hardly be expected to boost the Euro however as the ECB remains committed to a dovish posture and the French presidential election looms ahead.
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• Euro to look past flash PMI data with French election in focus
• Yen edged tellingly higher even as markets’ risk appetite firmed
• NZ Dollar fell cooler housing market stoked dovish RBNZ bets
The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite measures is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth held at the six-year high set in March. The outcome can hardly be expected to boost the Euro however as the ECB remains committed to a dovish posture and the French presidential election looms ahead.
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8 years 11 months ago #11122
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 APRIL 2017
• Euro soars as Macron leads first round of French election
• Yen sinks amid improving risk appetite, Aussie Dollar gains
• German IFO data unlikely to divert the markets’ attention
The first round of the French presidential election defined price action at the start of the trading week. The Euro outperformed after centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged in the lead, putting to rest concerns about a runoff between two eurosceptics (Marine Le Pen from the right and Jean-Luc Melechon from the left).
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• Euro soars as Macron leads first round of French election
• Yen sinks amid improving risk appetite, Aussie Dollar gains
• German IFO data unlikely to divert the markets’ attention
The first round of the French presidential election defined price action at the start of the trading week. The Euro outperformed after centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged in the lead, putting to rest concerns about a runoff between two eurosceptics (Marine Le Pen from the right and Jean-Luc Melechon from the left).
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8 years 11 months ago #11124
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 APRIL 2017
• Euro leads regional FX higher amid French election optimism
• Improving market sentiment punishing anti-risk Japanese Yen
• Aussie, Kiwi Dollars suffer as Fed rate hike outlook improves
Optimism following the outcome of first-round voting in the French presidential election continues to define currency market price action. The Euro is leading most regional majors upward as updated polls suggest centrist Emmanuel Macron will beat eurosceptic Marine Le Pen by a margin of approximately 60 to 40 percent in the second round on May 7.
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• Euro leads regional FX higher amid French election optimism
• Improving market sentiment punishing anti-risk Japanese Yen
• Aussie, Kiwi Dollars suffer as Fed rate hike outlook improves
Optimism following the outcome of first-round voting in the French presidential election continues to define currency market price action. The Euro is leading most regional majors upward as updated polls suggest centrist Emmanuel Macron will beat eurosceptic Marine Le Pen by a margin of approximately 60 to 40 percent in the second round on May 7.
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8 years 11 months ago #11127
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 APRIL 2017
• Aussie, NZ Dollars continue to drop as Fed rate hike bets rebuild
• US Dollar gains as Trump White House readies tax plan proposal
• Failure to placate House GOP may see “Trump trade” unravel
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars continue to sink as a recovery in Fed rate hike bets continued to weigh against rate spread-sensitive currencies, extending yesterday’s trade dynamics. Appropriately enough, the US Dollar outperformed, with the benchmark unit tracking Treasury bond yields upward.
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• Aussie, NZ Dollars continue to drop as Fed rate hike bets rebuild
• US Dollar gains as Trump White House readies tax plan proposal
• Failure to placate House GOP may see “Trump trade” unravel
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars continue to sink as a recovery in Fed rate hike bets continued to weigh against rate spread-sensitive currencies, extending yesterday’s trade dynamics. Appropriately enough, the US Dollar outperformed, with the benchmark unit tracking Treasury bond yields upward.
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8 years 11 months ago #11128
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 APRIL 2017
• Euro may fall as dovish Draghi sets stage for ECB QE change
• British Pound gains may reflect pre-ECB portfolio rebalancing
• Canadian Dollar rebounds as Trump U-turns on NAFTA exit
A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Changes aside from the implementing the previously announced intent to reduce the size of monthly asset purchases – down to €60 billion from €80 billion previously – are not expected.
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• Euro may fall as dovish Draghi sets stage for ECB QE change
• British Pound gains may reflect pre-ECB portfolio rebalancing
• Canadian Dollar rebounds as Trump U-turns on NAFTA exit
A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Changes aside from the implementing the previously announced intent to reduce the size of monthly asset purchases – down to €60 billion from €80 billion previously – are not expected.
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8 years 11 months ago #11131
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 28 April 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 APRIL 2017
• Gold prices may rebound as Q1 US GDP report disappoints
• Crude oil price dip to 1-month low fails to have staying power
• EIA supply data, rig count figures may offset OPEC optimism
Gold prices are adrift in familiar territory, mirroring consolidation in the US Dollar and the priced-in 2017 rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures. The spotlight now turns to first-quarter US GDP figures. Consensus forecasts point to an annualized gain of 1 percent, a steep slowdown from the 2.1 percent recorded in the three months through December 2016.
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• Gold prices may rebound as Q1 US GDP report disappoints
• Crude oil price dip to 1-month low fails to have staying power
• EIA supply data, rig count figures may offset OPEC optimism
Gold prices are adrift in familiar territory, mirroring consolidation in the US Dollar and the priced-in 2017 rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures. The spotlight now turns to first-quarter US GDP figures. Consensus forecasts point to an annualized gain of 1 percent, a steep slowdown from the 2.1 percent recorded in the three months through December 2016.
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8 years 11 months ago #11135
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 MEI 2017
• Crude oil prices hold up as US capacity rises to 2-year high
• Gold prices fall US budget, spending deal boosts Fed outlook
• Markets may look past PCE, ISM data as FOMC approaches
Crude oil prices found little to inspire directional momentum even as US output capacity continued to build, with Baker Hughes reporting that the number of active rigs hit a two-year high last week. Traders may be turning pessimistic however. The latest batch of CFTC positioning data showed net long positions in benchmark WTI futures fell by the most in six weeks. Analogous ICE figures tracking exposure to contracts tracking the international Brent crude oil baseline are due today.
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• Crude oil prices hold up as US capacity rises to 2-year high
• Gold prices fall US budget, spending deal boosts Fed outlook
• Markets may look past PCE, ISM data as FOMC approaches
Crude oil prices found little to inspire directional momentum even as US output capacity continued to build, with Baker Hughes reporting that the number of active rigs hit a two-year high last week. Traders may be turning pessimistic however. The latest batch of CFTC positioning data showed net long positions in benchmark WTI futures fell by the most in six weeks. Analogous ICE figures tracking exposure to contracts tracking the international Brent crude oil baseline are due today.
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8 years 11 months ago #11136
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MEI 2017
• Gold prices fell ahead of the FOMC policy announcement
• Crude oil prices broke below 9-month rising trend support
• API inventory data highlights otherwise quiet data offering
Gold prices sank after April’s ISM manufacturing survey crossed the wires. While the figures showed that the overall pace of US manufacturing activity growth slowed last month, an index of input prices paid by firms was stronger than expected. That may have stoked bets on higher inflation that might beckon a steeper Fed rate hike cycle. Tellingly, US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar rose as the yellow metal fell.
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• Gold prices fell ahead of the FOMC policy announcement
• Crude oil prices broke below 9-month rising trend support
• API inventory data highlights otherwise quiet data offering
Gold prices sank after April’s ISM manufacturing survey crossed the wires. While the figures showed that the overall pace of US manufacturing activity growth slowed last month, an index of input prices paid by firms was stronger than expected. That may have stoked bets on higher inflation that might beckon a steeper Fed rate hike cycle. Tellingly, US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar rose as the yellow metal fell.
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8 years 11 months ago #11138
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 MEI 2017
• Euro unlikely to find fuel in bloc-wide GDP, German jobs data
• All eyes now on the tone of the FOMC monetary policy statement
• US Dollar outlook hinges on Fed view of Q1 growth slowdown
Eurozone GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The on-year growth rate is expected to register at 1.7 percent in the first quarter, unchanged from the three months through December 2016. The quarterly gain is projected at 0.5 percent, also a repeat of the prior period.
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• Euro unlikely to find fuel in bloc-wide GDP, German jobs data
• All eyes now on the tone of the FOMC monetary policy statement
• US Dollar outlook hinges on Fed view of Q1 growth slowdown
Eurozone GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The on-year growth rate is expected to register at 1.7 percent in the first quarter, unchanged from the three months through December 2016. The quarterly gain is projected at 0.5 percent, also a repeat of the prior period.
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8 years 11 months ago #11139
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 4 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 MEI 2017
• Gold prices plunge as upbeat FOMC boosts June hike bets
• Crude oil prices extend drop as inventory draw disappoints
• US crude export data next on tap as gold looks on to NFP
Gold prices plunged after Federal Reserve officials dismissed a first-quarter slowdown in US growth as “transitory”, signaling their tightening plans are still on track. Fed Funds futures now put the probability of a June hike at 97 percent, up from 67 percent on the day before. This sent Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar higher, cooling demand for non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.
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• Gold prices plunge as upbeat FOMC boosts June hike bets
• Crude oil prices extend drop as inventory draw disappoints
• US crude export data next on tap as gold looks on to NFP
Gold prices plunged after Federal Reserve officials dismissed a first-quarter slowdown in US growth as “transitory”, signaling their tightening plans are still on track. Fed Funds futures now put the probability of a June hike at 97 percent, up from 67 percent on the day before. This sent Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar higher, cooling demand for non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.
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