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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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• Aussie Dollar gains, Yen weakens as risk-on mood prevails in Asia
• US Dollar may struggle to extend recovery on dovish Fed comments
An upbeat mood on most Asian stock exchanges seemed supportive for the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar. On the other side of the spectrum, the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.6 percent.
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- EUR/USD Risks Larger Pullback Amid Failure to Fill January 2015-Gap.
- NZD/USD Correction Unfolds Ahead of RBNZ; Bearish RSI Trigger to Offer Confirmation.
The shift in EUR/USD behavior may continue unfold over the coming months as European Central Bank (ECB) drops its dovish tone and appears to be on course to taper the quantitative easing (QE) program ahead of the December deadline. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials may continue to endorse three rate-hikes for 2017 amid the recent pickup in household earnings accompanied by the ongoing expansion in job growth.
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• Gold prices gain after Trump threatens North Korea, sinking bond yields
• Crude oil prices still range-bound, looking to EIA data for direction cues
Gold prices are finding renewed support after fiery comments from US President Donald Trump raised the specter of war with North Korea. Capital fled to the safety of government bonds, sinking yields and boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.
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• Crude oil prices edge up on EIA data but familiar range still remains
• Gold prices may shrug off Dudley comments, focus on US PPI figures
Crude oil prices drifted to the top of August’s narrow range as EIA inventory data showed US stockpiles shed 6.45 million barrels last week, beating forecasts calling for a 2.2 million draw. The result echoed an API estimate published on the prior day, which may have robbed it of greater market-moving potential.
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• Yen gains while Aussie, NZ Dollars sink as risk aversion extends to Asia
• US Dollar may be forced to look past CPI data amid geopolitical jitters
The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars slumped while the
perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc traded higher as Asian bourses
picked up the negative lead emanating from Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific
regional benchmark equity index shed over 1 percent amid worries about escalating
tension between the US and North Korea.
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• Yen falls, Aussie Dollar gains as market mood brightens in Asia
• US, European stock index futures hint risk-on mood to continue
The perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen declined and the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar moved broadly higher as the markets’ mood brightened at the start of the trading week. Most Asian stock exchanges posted gains after top US officials sought to cool worries about imminent hostilities between the US and North Korea following last week’s fiery rhetoric.
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• British Pound may decline as inflation data falls short of expectations
• Euro unlikely to find lasting direction in on-trend German GDP data
• US Dollar may rise if upbeat retail sales numbers boost Fed outlook
UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.7 percent in July from 2.6 percent in the prior month, matching the near-term trend average. UK price-growth data has conspicuously deteriorated relative to forecasts recently, echoing broader malaise in the country’s news-flow for most of the year. More of the same may hurt the British Pound.
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• Euro may shrug off 2Q GDP revision with ECB QE taper in focus
• UK jobless claims data may pass with little notice from the Pound
• US Dollar may rise as FOMC minutes hint at third 2017 rate hike
A revised set of second-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The flash estimate showing a 0.6 percent quarterly gain is expected to be confirmed, as is the trend growth reading putting on-year pace of expansion at 2.1 percent.
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• Euro may fall if ECB meeting minutes omit talk of tapering QE
• Japanese Yen higher as risk appetite struggles in Asian trade
• US Dollar down an political concerns, timid FOMC minutes
The European economic data docket is relatively quiet, with ECB policy meeting minutes amounting to the only bit of noteworthy scheduled event risk. The document may prove market-moving for what is absent from its pages rather than what is contained therein.
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• Yen gains as Asia Pacific stocks follow Wall Street lower
• US Dollar still digesting after Wednesday’s sharp decline
• UofM gauge of US consumer confidence may pass quietly
The Japanese Yen traded broadly higher as stocks across Asia Pacific bourses declined, boosting the appeal of the standby anti-risk currency. Regional shares shed 0.6 percent, echoing a steep selloff on Wall Street. The liquidation seems to reflect lost confidence in the ability of the embattled Trump administration to make good a pro-growth policy agenda.
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• Gold prices rejected at 8-month high, eyeing Jackson Hole symposium
• Crude oil prices jump as physical market spreads show signs of strength
• OPEC/non-OPEC committee to grade compliance with output cut deal
Gold prices briefly touched an eight-month high but swiftly retreated as markets cheered the removal of controversial Trump advisor Steve Bannon. The move followed the administration’s broadly panned response to recent events in Charlottesville, Virginia. Bond yields rose alongside share prices, undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.
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• Most Asian stocks finished higher as risk appetite staged a modest revival
• The US Dollar was in better shape than it had been for some time
• The market is looking ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium
A higher US Dollar and generally steadier market nerves marked Asia’s Tuesday trading session. While a lack of further bad news was probably behind the day’s moves, rather than any obvious cause for celebration, the greenback was stronger against the Yen as traders focused on this week’s annual central banking conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
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• NZ Dollar drops as government downgrades growth, budget outlook
• Yen gains as Aussie and Canadian Dollars weaken on Trump speech
• Euro, US Dollar may look past PMIs data with Jackson Hole in focus
The New Zealand Dollar swooned after the government lowered economic growth and budget surplus projections a month before a general election. That leaves less room for a fiscal policy boost even as weaker performance might have called for a public spending pickup. Traders seemed to read the news as limiting scope for RBNZ tightening.
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• Crude oil prices edge up within familiar range despite soft EIA data
• Gold prices mark time in familiar territory before key Yellen speech
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Commodity prices struggled to find fuel for directional follow-through. Gold prices continued to mark time in familiar territory. Fed policy speculation is formative for the benchmark anti-fiat asset and traders seemed unwilling to commit one way or another ahead of a much-anticipated speech from Janet Yellen on Friday.
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• US Dollar poised to rise if Fed’s Yellen hints QT to be unveiled next month
• Euro may decline if Draghi disappoints hopes for ECB QE taper guidance
Currency markets put in a muted performance in Asia Pacific trade as investors looked ahead to headlines emerging from the Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium underway in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Traders are most keen to hear comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi, both of which may set the stage for major policy changes.
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• Yen gains as sentiment sours at the start of the trading week
• S&P 500 index futures point to continued risk aversion ahead
• US political volatility a threat amid NAFTA renegotiation
The Japanese Yen edged up in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The perennially anti-risk currency edged higher, seemingly looking past a mixed performance across regional bourses to focus on negative cues displayed in S&P 500 futures.
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• Yen gains, Aussie and Kiwi Dollar drop on North Korea missile test
• S&P 500 and FTSE 100 futures hint risk aversion likely to continue
• Augusts’ US consumer confidence data may pass without fireworks
The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded broadly higher while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars swooned in Asia Pacific trade. The markets started the week in a sour mood and traders’ disposition only darkened as worries about the impact of Hurricane Harvey were compounded after North Korea conducted another missile test, this time aiming squarely toward Japan.
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• Aussie, NZ Dollars rise as markets’ dovish Fed view returns to focus
• US Dollar may gain as Q2 GDP revision, ADP jobs data outperform
• Euro at risk on German CPI data but follow-through to wait for ECB
The US Dollar fell in Asia Pacific trade in a move that might reflect pre-positioning before key economic data shaping Fed policy bets begins to cross the wires. The yield-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars duly rose, which seemed to speak to the markets’ skepticism about the US central bank’s wherewithal to deliver another rate hike. The probability of such an outcome is now priced in at just 29 percent.
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• NZ Dollar sinks on soft data, Yen down as Asia/Pacific stocks rise
• Euro may look past first CPI gain in 4 months as ECB looms large
• Upside surprise on US PCE gauge might drive US Dollar higher
The Japanese Yen declined in Asia Pacific trade as most regional stocks advanced, sapping support for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar proved to be weakest on the session however, sinking after ANZ business confidence data saw sentiment deteriorate for a second consecutive month. The currency fell alongside local yields, hinting the data hurt RBNZ rate hike prospects.
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• USD rebounds mid-week as risk-off fades, USD trading like a risk-seeking currency
• DXY traded to the lowest level since January 2015 earlier in the week
• Dollar has seen additional pressure ahead of NFP on increasing debt ceiling concerns
Ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll release for August, the Dollar took another shot lower to new 15-month lows, which helped the EUR to extend its gains above 1.20 and XUA/USD (spot Gold) to close above $1,300/oz. Given the increase of geopolitical headlines, we had a pickup in currency volatility later in the month that aligned with a Jackson Hole speech by Janet Yellen that convinced some traders that Janet Yellen would likely not be around for a second term as chairperson of the Federal Reserve.
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