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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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8 years 5 months ago #11376
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 30 Oktober 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 OKTOBER 2017
• US Dollar might suffer if Powell looks set to replace Yellen as Fed Chair
• Indictment in Mueller’s Trump/Russia probe might cool tax cut prospects
• Kiwi Dollar broadly lower as prices correct after Friday’s swift rebound
A lackluster offering on the European economic data docket is likely to put US news-flow back into the spotlight. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is due to cross the wires, with the core on-year inflation rate seen holding steady at 1.3 percent. An upside surprise echoing recently upbeat US data outcomes may stoke rate hike speculation, boosting the US Dollar.
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• US Dollar might suffer if Powell looks set to replace Yellen as Fed Chair
• Indictment in Mueller’s Trump/Russia probe might cool tax cut prospects
• Kiwi Dollar broadly lower as prices correct after Friday’s swift rebound
A lackluster offering on the European economic data docket is likely to put US news-flow back into the spotlight. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is due to cross the wires, with the core on-year inflation rate seen holding steady at 1.3 percent. An upside surprise echoing recently upbeat US data outcomes may stoke rate hike speculation, boosting the US Dollar.
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8 years 5 months ago #11377
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Oktober 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 OKTOBER 2017
- The single currency moved either side of unchanged on conflicting growth and inflation data.
- The ongoing political crisis in Catalonia will continue to weigh on the EUR.
The Euro-Zone economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% in Q3, forcing up annual growth to a robust 2.5% while the unemployment rate in the zone fell to 8.9% from a prior, revised, 9.0%.
Inflation however failed to cheer the market with the core rate falling to 0.9% in October, against expectations and a prior reading of 1.1%, while headline inflation slipped to 1.4% against expectations and a prior reading of 1.5%.
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- The single currency moved either side of unchanged on conflicting growth and inflation data.
- The ongoing political crisis in Catalonia will continue to weigh on the EUR.
The Euro-Zone economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% in Q3, forcing up annual growth to a robust 2.5% while the unemployment rate in the zone fell to 8.9% from a prior, revised, 9.0%.
Inflation however failed to cheer the market with the core rate falling to 0.9% in October, against expectations and a prior reading of 1.1%, while headline inflation slipped to 1.4% against expectations and a prior reading of 1.5%.
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8 years 5 months ago #11379
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 NOVEMBER 2017
• US Dollar may fall even as FOMC sets the stage for December rate hike
• New Zealand Dollar soars after upbeat third-quarter employment report
• Aussie Dollar higher, Yen down as risk appetite firms in AsiaPac trade
A quiet offering on the European data docket puts the FOMC monetary policy announcement firmly in the spotlight. A change in rates this time around is almost universally dismissed but the statement emerging from the conclave is widely seen as likely to set the stage for tightening in December. In fact, the probability of a hike at the year’s last conclave is being priced in at a hefty 97 percent.
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• US Dollar may fall even as FOMC sets the stage for December rate hike
• New Zealand Dollar soars after upbeat third-quarter employment report
• Aussie Dollar higher, Yen down as risk appetite firms in AsiaPac trade
A quiet offering on the European data docket puts the FOMC monetary policy announcement firmly in the spotlight. A change in rates this time around is almost universally dismissed but the statement emerging from the conclave is widely seen as likely to set the stage for tightening in December. In fact, the probability of a hike at the year’s last conclave is being priced in at a hefty 97 percent.
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8 years 5 months ago #11380
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 NOVEMBER 2017
- Bank of England (BoE) to Raise Benchmark Interest Rate for First Time Since 2006.
- Will Governor Mark Caney & Co. Continue to Normalize Monetary Policy in 2018?
The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound as the central bank is anticipated to deliver its first rate-hike since 2006.
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- Bank of England (BoE) to Raise Benchmark Interest Rate for First Time Since 2006.
- Will Governor Mark Caney & Co. Continue to Normalize Monetary Policy in 2018?
The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound as the central bank is anticipated to deliver its first rate-hike since 2006.
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8 years 5 months ago #11384
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 NOVEMBER 2017
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Rebound 310K- Biggest Advance Since October 2015.
- Average Hourly Earnings to Narrow for First Time Since April.
A marked rebound in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may undermine the recent rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver a December rate-hike.
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- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Rebound 310K- Biggest Advance Since October 2015.
- Average Hourly Earnings to Narrow for First Time Since April.
A marked rebound in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may undermine the recent rebound in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver a December rate-hike.
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8 years 5 months ago #11386
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 6 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 NOVEMBER 2017
• Gold prices drop to range floor as US jobs data bolsters Fed hike bets
• Crude oil prices rise on hopes for output cuts extension, supply jitters
• Risk aversion might weigh on crude oil prices while gold edges higher
Gold prices fell while the US Dollar rose alongside Treasury bond yields Friday as October’s official labor-market data crossed the wires. While headline payrolls growth fell short of economists’ forecasts (261k vs. 313k expected), this was offset by a 51k revision that erased September’s shock 33k drop to show a 18k gain instead. Data for the past two months was revised up by a net 90k.
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• Gold prices drop to range floor as US jobs data bolsters Fed hike bets
• Crude oil prices rise on hopes for output cuts extension, supply jitters
• Risk aversion might weigh on crude oil prices while gold edges higher
Gold prices fell while the US Dollar rose alongside Treasury bond yields Friday as October’s official labor-market data crossed the wires. While headline payrolls growth fell short of economists’ forecasts (261k vs. 313k expected), this was offset by a 51k revision that erased September’s shock 33k drop to show a 18k gain instead. Data for the past two months was revised up by a net 90k.
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8 years 5 months ago #11387
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 NOVEMBER 2017
• Crude oil prices soared on Saudi elites purge, Iran war worries
• Gold prices rose as geopolitical jitters cooled Fed rate hike bets
• OPEC, EIA and API statistics due but might be overshadowed
Crude oil prices surged to the highest level since July 2015 as a purge of the Saudi elite stoked supply disruption fears. In a move reportedly engineered by ascendant Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman, security forces rounded up members of the royal family, ministers, billionaires and top officials almost immediately after King Salman announced a sweeping anti-corruption initiative.
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• Crude oil prices soared on Saudi elites purge, Iran war worries
• Gold prices rose as geopolitical jitters cooled Fed rate hike bets
• OPEC, EIA and API statistics due but might be overshadowed
Crude oil prices surged to the highest level since July 2015 as a purge of the Saudi elite stoked supply disruption fears. In a move reportedly engineered by ascendant Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman, security forces rounded up members of the royal family, ministers, billionaires and top officials almost immediately after King Salman announced a sweeping anti-corruption initiative.
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8 years 5 months ago #11388
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 NOVEMBER 2017
• Yen gains as Japanese share prices pull back from multi-year peak
• US Dollar gently lower as prices correct after yesterday’s advance
• Fading US tax cut prospects might amplify overnight trade patterns
The Yen narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade as Japanese stocks declined, offering a lift to the perennially anti-risk currency. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index pulled back after closing at the strongest level since 1992 on Tuesday. The US Dollar corrected gently lower against the G10 FX majors following yesterday’s broad-based recovery.
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• Yen gains as Japanese share prices pull back from multi-year peak
• US Dollar gently lower as prices correct after yesterday’s advance
• Fading US tax cut prospects might amplify overnight trade patterns
The Yen narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade as Japanese stocks declined, offering a lift to the perennially anti-risk currency. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index pulled back after closing at the strongest level since 1992 on Tuesday. The US Dollar corrected gently lower against the G10 FX majors following yesterday’s broad-based recovery.
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8 years 5 months ago #11389
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 NOVEMBER 2017
- Reports and data pointing to a healthy Euro-Zone economy have lifted the Euro.
- The ECB and European Commission are optimistic; German trade data show a wider surplus.
EURUSD is showing signs of stabilizing after hitting its lowest level since July 20 on Tuesday. After touching 1.1554 it has rallied modestly to around 1.16 as evidence mounts that the Euro-Zone economy is picking up speed.
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- Reports and data pointing to a healthy Euro-Zone economy have lifted the Euro.
- The ECB and European Commission are optimistic; German trade data show a wider surplus.
EURUSD is showing signs of stabilizing after hitting its lowest level since July 20 on Tuesday. After touching 1.1554 it has rallied modestly to around 1.16 as evidence mounts that the Euro-Zone economy is picking up speed.
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8 years 5 months ago #11390
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 NOVEMBER 2017
- Bitcoin continues to build a base between $7,000 and $7,200 despite outflows.
- Bitcoin Cash rally leaves August 19 high vulnerable.
Bitcoin (BTC): Consolidates as Traders Buy Alternatives
After the cancellation of the Segwit2x fork, traders have been moving out of BTC into a variety of other coins. And overnight it seems that the third-largest digital coin, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), was on the top of traders buy lists, surging by over 20% in Asian hours on the back of switching from BTC and heavy Korean Won buying.
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- Bitcoin continues to build a base between $7,000 and $7,200 despite outflows.
- Bitcoin Cash rally leaves August 19 high vulnerable.
Bitcoin (BTC): Consolidates as Traders Buy Alternatives
After the cancellation of the Segwit2x fork, traders have been moving out of BTC into a variety of other coins. And overnight it seems that the third-largest digital coin, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), was on the top of traders buy lists, surging by over 20% in Asian hours on the back of switching from BTC and heavy Korean Won buying.
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8 years 5 months ago #11392
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 NOVEMBER 2017
• GBPUSD implied volatility on the rise in the past week
• Trading range over past five weeks at risk of breaking soon
• Break of trend-lines and 13000 to kick off next leg lower
In the table below, we’ve listed implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-week and one-month periods. Also noted are the differentials between the two, which can help shape expectations and/or identify currency pairs where the options market may be under or over-pricing potential price movement in the short-term.
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• GBPUSD implied volatility on the rise in the past week
• Trading range over past five weeks at risk of breaking soon
• Break of trend-lines and 13000 to kick off next leg lower
In the table below, we’ve listed implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-week and one-month periods. Also noted are the differentials between the two, which can help shape expectations and/or identify currency pairs where the options market may be under or over-pricing potential price movement in the short-term.
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8 years 5 months ago #11393
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 NOVEMBER 2017
- Inflation rises less than expected as input price growth slows.
- Sterling now eyes upcoming central bank talk against a backdrop of increasingly fractious Brexit talks
Consumer prices rose less than expected in October, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). GBP/USD fell below 1.31000 on the release with traders now looking ahead to jobs, wages and retail sales numbers over the next two days.
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- Inflation rises less than expected as input price growth slows.
- Sterling now eyes upcoming central bank talk against a backdrop of increasingly fractious Brexit talks
Consumer prices rose less than expected in October, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). GBP/USD fell below 1.31000 on the release with traders now looking ahead to jobs, wages and retail sales numbers over the next two days.
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8 years 5 months ago #11394
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 NOVEMBER 2017
- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Narrow to Annualized 2.0% from 2.2% in September.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at 1.7% per Annum for Six Consecutive Months.
- U.S. Retail Sales to Hold Flat After Expanding 1.6% in September.
A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) paired with a soft reading for Retail Sales may fuel the near-term recovery in EUR/USD as it undermines the Federal Reserve’s scope to further normalize monetary policy in 2018.
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- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Narrow to Annualized 2.0% from 2.2% in September.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at 1.7% per Annum for Six Consecutive Months.
- U.S. Retail Sales to Hold Flat After Expanding 1.6% in September.
A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) paired with a soft reading for Retail Sales may fuel the near-term recovery in EUR/USD as it undermines the Federal Reserve’s scope to further normalize monetary policy in 2018.
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8 years 5 months ago #11395
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 16 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 NOVEMBER 2017
• Silver and gold price contraction setting up for volatility to come shortly
• Silver has the cleaner of the two patterns, but need to wait for breakout rather than predict
• Moves could be fairly substantial once we finally have a resolution
Both major precious metals – gold & silver – are carving out solid-looking symmetrical triangles, with the latter having the cleanest pattern. This sets the sector up for a move to come shortly. We’ll start with a look at silver since conviction is highest in its formation based on symmetry.
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• Silver and gold price contraction setting up for volatility to come shortly
• Silver has the cleaner of the two patterns, but need to wait for breakout rather than predict
• Moves could be fairly substantial once we finally have a resolution
Both major precious metals – gold & silver – are carving out solid-looking symmetrical triangles, with the latter having the cleanest pattern. This sets the sector up for a move to come shortly. We’ll start with a look at silver since conviction is highest in its formation based on symmetry.
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8 years 5 months ago #11397
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 17 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 NOVEMBER 2017
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for First Time Since June.
- Core Rate of Inflation Has Held Steady at 1.5% Per Annum for Two Consecutive Months.
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to slow down for the first time since June, and signs of easing price pressures may generate a near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to carry a wait-and-see approach into 2018.
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- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for First Time Since June.
- Core Rate of Inflation Has Held Steady at 1.5% Per Annum for Two Consecutive Months.
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to slow down for the first time since June, and signs of easing price pressures may generate a near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it encourages the Bank of Canada (BoC) to carry a wait-and-see approach into 2018.
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8 years 5 months ago #11400
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 NOVEMBER 2017
• Gold prices may extend Friday’s risk-off gains as German coalition crumbles
• Crude oil prices have room to consolidate but WTI expiry may stoke volatility
Gold prices pushed higher Friday – posting the largest daily gain in nearly three months – as risk aversion weighed on bond yields and cooled Fed rate hike bets. That offered a familiar boost to anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. Sentiment soured after Special Counsel Robert Mueller subpoenaed the Trump campaign.
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• Gold prices may extend Friday’s risk-off gains as German coalition crumbles
• Crude oil prices have room to consolidate but WTI expiry may stoke volatility
Gold prices pushed higher Friday – posting the largest daily gain in nearly three months – as risk aversion weighed on bond yields and cooled Fed rate hike bets. That offered a familiar boost to anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. Sentiment soured after Special Counsel Robert Mueller subpoenaed the Trump campaign.
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8 years 4 months ago #11401
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 NOVEMBER 2017
- German political concerns weigh on the single currency.
- Fresh talk in the UK that PM May will offer the EU a higher financial offer.
EUR/GBP fell further in early European trade on Tuesday with the pair being led lower by political moves in Germany and the UK. And with a four-month low within sight, the pair may have further to fall.
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- German political concerns weigh on the single currency.
- Fresh talk in the UK that PM May will offer the EU a higher financial offer.
EUR/GBP fell further in early European trade on Tuesday with the pair being led lower by political moves in Germany and the UK. And with a four-month low within sight, the pair may have further to fall.
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8 years 4 months ago #11403
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 22 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 NOVEMBER 2017
• British Pound may rise if UK Autumn Budget eases up on austerity
• Australian Dollar broadly lower, retracing yesterday’s risk-on rally
• Japanese Yen back on the offensive after funding FX’s brief retreat
All eyes are on UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond as he delivers the Autumn Budget, the game-plan for the coming fiscal year. A downward revision in growth forecasts is expected, limiting the government’s ability to deliver stimulus if Brexit uncertainty begins to really bite.
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• British Pound may rise if UK Autumn Budget eases up on austerity
• Australian Dollar broadly lower, retracing yesterday’s risk-on rally
• Japanese Yen back on the offensive after funding FX’s brief retreat
All eyes are on UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond as he delivers the Autumn Budget, the game-plan for the coming fiscal year. A downward revision in growth forecasts is expected, limiting the government’s ability to deliver stimulus if Brexit uncertainty begins to really bite.
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8 years 4 months ago #11407
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 23 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 NOVEMBER 2017
- French and German PMIs hit multi-year highs boosting Euro-Zone sentiment further.
- EUR/USD pushes higher in holiday-thinned trade with multi-week highs in sight.
EUR/USD continues to push higher after the latest round of Markit PMIs shows economic growth in the Euro-Zone continuing to accelerate with manufacturing leading the way. The flash composite PMI hit a 79-month high of 57.5 in November, compared to 56.0 in October, while manufacturing hit a 211-month high of 60, compared to a prior month’s reading of 58.5.
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- French and German PMIs hit multi-year highs boosting Euro-Zone sentiment further.
- EUR/USD pushes higher in holiday-thinned trade with multi-week highs in sight.
EUR/USD continues to push higher after the latest round of Markit PMIs shows economic growth in the Euro-Zone continuing to accelerate with manufacturing leading the way. The flash composite PMI hit a 79-month high of 57.5 in November, compared to 56.0 in October, while manufacturing hit a 211-month high of 60, compared to a prior month’s reading of 58.5.
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8 years 4 months ago #11412
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 November 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 NOVEMBER 2017
• Ebbing political risk made the Euro the strongest major currency in 2017
• Conflicting political, economic forces locked the British Pound in place
• Outlook may be turning increasingly worrisome for European currencies
The Euro has enjoyed an undeniably stellar 2017…
With barely over a month left to go in 2017, it feels safe to say that the past year has been decidedly rosy for the Euro. That seemed improbable on January 1, when the currency was plagued by fears of eurosceptic triumph in several pivotal elections. Still smarting after the outcomes of the Brexit referendum and the US presidential election, shell-shocked investors braced for the worst.
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• Ebbing political risk made the Euro the strongest major currency in 2017
• Conflicting political, economic forces locked the British Pound in place
• Outlook may be turning increasingly worrisome for European currencies
The Euro has enjoyed an undeniably stellar 2017…
With barely over a month left to go in 2017, it feels safe to say that the past year has been decidedly rosy for the Euro. That seemed improbable on January 1, when the currency was plagued by fears of eurosceptic triumph in several pivotal elections. Still smarting after the outcomes of the Brexit referendum and the US presidential election, shell-shocked investors braced for the worst.
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