Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Sentix index rises to 28.2, beating expectations of a fall to 27.0 from the previous 27.7.
- The figures are among the latest ahead of this Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting.

Sentiment among investors in the Euro-Zone has improved according to the latest Sentix investor confidence index, which is based on a survey of more than 900 professional investors and financial analysts by the German market research firm.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 SEPTEMBER 2017

- UK services miss after last week’s manufacturing beat.
- All eyes on the ECB – will it offer any hint towards monetary tightening?

The dominant UK services sector missed market expectations, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ report. The sector, which accounts for around 80% of UK GDP, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics, fell to 53.2 against expectations of 53.5 and July’s 53.8.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 SEPTEMBER 2017

• USDCAD one-day implied volatility balloons to nearly 23% ahead of today’s BoC meeting
• The projected one-standard deviation daily range is 12235 to 12531
• The pair is trading at a major long-term trend-line, today could make or break that line

At 14:00 GMT time, the Bank of Canada will release its decision on interest rates, with expectations that it will keep its benchmark rate at 0.75%. The bigger risk, barring a surprise raise, is likely to come with the central bank’s policy statement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 SEPTEMBER 2017

- European Central Bank (ECB) to Stick to Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).
- Will the Governing Council Stick to the December Deadline & Start to Taper the Asset-Purchase Program?

The initial reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may be limited as President Mario Draghi and Co. preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), but the fresh updates coming out of the central bank may drag on EUR/USD if the Governing Council merely attempts to buy more time.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Canada Employment to Increase for Ninth Consecutive Month.
- Jobless Rate to Hold at Annualized 6.3%- Lowest Reading Since 2008.

Another 15.0K expansion in Canada Employment may fuel fresh 2017-lows in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to implement additional rate-hikes over the coming months.
The BoC may move to the sidelines after delivering two consecutive rate-hikes as the central bank notes ‘Future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined and will be guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments as they inform the outlook for inflation.’

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Bitcoin and Ethereum push higher but moves are muted.
- Chinese crypto-currency exchanges are still seeing healthy Yuan-based turnover.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Move Higher but Worries Remain.
The crypto-currency market posted modest gains in early European turnover, continuing the uptick seen overnight in Asian hours. The gains remain subdued however as the market awaits further details on Friday’s talk that China will ban crypto-currency trading on domestic exchanges. The news, in a Caixin report, sent the crypto-currency market sharply lower on Friday afternoon, wiping out the week’s gains.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 SEPTEMBER 2017

- CPIH rose to 2.9% in August.
- All eyes on Wednesday’s UK wages and employment releases.

GBP/USD traded above 1.32600 on the release of higher than expected UK inflation data, putting pressure on the UK central bank to temper price rises.
CPIH rose to 2.9% in August from 2.6% in July and against expectations of 2.8%, while Core CPI rose to 2.7% from 2.4% beating expectations of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.6% after a -0.1% reading in July.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Crude oil prices shrug off API data, rise on rosy IEA demand view
• Incoming EIA inventory flow figures unlikely to break momentum
• Gold prices may find conflicting cues in risk trends, US PPI report

Crude oil prices shrugged off API data showing US inventories added 6.8 million barrels last week. Though the increase surpassed the 4.4 million barrel build expected from the official EIA data due later today, markets were seemingly well-primed for a build-up courtesy of refinery disruptions from Hurricane Harvey and took the result in stride. Rather, a corrective upswing saw the WTI benchmark drift higher after Friday’s plunge.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Gold prices may break key support as US CPI uptick boosts Fed rate hike bets
• Retail traders expect gold gains. Find out here what this hints about the trend
• Crude oil prices revel in rosy IEA demand forecast, improving risk sentiment

Gold prices turned lower as August’s US PPI data stoked Fed rate hike speculation, driving Treasury bond yields higher alongside the US Dollar and undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. While wholesale inflation registered slightly weaker than expected, the report still put the headline on-year growth rate at a three-month high (2.4 percent vs. 2.5 percent forecast).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Heavy selling pressure across the board has left the crypto-currency market reeling.
- Total market valuation has dropped by 40% in two weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) hit by Panic Selling
A badweek for Bitcoin bulls just got even worse as continued selling in all time zones sent prices spinning lower. After a week of bad news, culminating in one of the largest Chinese exchange’s, BTC China announcing that it would close for business on September 30, prices continued to push lower, trying to find pockets of support. BTC fell through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $3407 and is currently eyeing the 61.8% retracement level at $3043.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Yen drops, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as market mood brightens
• FTSE 100 and S&P 500 futures hint risk-on mood likely to continue
• British Pound may correct lower on cautious Carney commentary

An up-swell in market sentiment defined the G10 FX space at the start of the trading week. The anti-risk Japanese Yen slumped while at the opposite end of the spectrum, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars powered higher. The chipper mood appears to be follow-on momentum after Wall Street finished Friday with record highs recorded for US equities benchmarks.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Traders in the Euro are likely to face a period of consolidation this week ahead of the German Federal Election on Sunday.
- Meanwhile the September ZEW index for Europe’s largest economy suggests continuing robust growth.

The Euro looks set to hold around its current levels against other currencies this week ahead of the German Federal Election on Sunday, which will likely deliver another victory for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU Christian democrat political alliance.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 SEPTEMBER 2017

- UK Retail Sales grew strongly in August, beating all market expectations.
- FOMC meeting is expected to outline the sequence and timing of Fed monetary tightening.
- UK PM Theresa May’s speech in Florence at the end of the week may give Sterling an additional boost.

The British Pound got a strong upside boost Wednesday after UK Retail Sales beat market expectations with ease. Sales rose 1% month-on-month against expectations of a flat reading and compared to an upwardly revised 0.7% in July, while year-on-year growth rose to 2.8% against expectations of 1.4% and last month’s upwardly revised 1.7%.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 SEPTEMBER 2017

• The Federal Reserve offered up a clearly hawkish monetary policy - confounding market's skepticism and staging the Dollar
• Risk trends are perhaps at greatest risk of volatility moving forward post-Fed QE plans, but it may take time to register
• In addition to keeping tabs on the Dollar and risk; there is scheduled event risk in central bank speak, BoJ decision, data

The Federal Reserve has once again pushed back against speculative skepticism surrounding their monetary policy bearings. And, that persistence is not only likely to charge a rebound in the Dollar; it may prove the backdrop change that ultimately proves the undoing to years of speculative reach and complacency. In the US central bank's multi-faceted policy announcement this past session, it offered up an unmistakably hawkish intention.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Silver furthers weakness on channel break below confluence of support
• Gold treading precariously around April/June double-top, August consolidation period
• Key levels and considerations outlined for both precious metals

Earlier in the week we made note of the breakdown below key channel support in precious metals, highlighting that it signaled more weakness ahead. We’ll start out by looking at silver and then move onto to its big sibling, gold.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Euro may fall as ECB’s Draghi takes cautious QE stance after German election
• US Dollar may rise if broadly confident Fed comments boost rate hike prospects
• Pound shrugs off UK credit downgrade, NZ Dollar swoons on election outcome

A dull offering of economic data is likely to see central bank commentary driving G10 FX price action in the day ahead. First, investors will size up a speech from Mario Draghi as they prepare for a late-October announcement on the fate of the ECB’s QE effort. Political uncertainly in Germany may undermine the case for near-term stimulus withdrawal and clues to that effect may hurt the Euro.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 SEPTEMBER 2017

- Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to move higher as Korean Won turnover increases.
- NEO jumps 25% on chatter of talks with Chinese authorities.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) push above resistance levels
Bitcoin continues its recent march higher, taking out resistance levels as it points towards $4000 and higher. As noted yesterday, resistance from both the downtrend line from the September 2 high of $4987 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level failed to hold the move higher with the September 18/19 highs around $4120 the next upside target.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 SEPTEMBER 2017

• Gold prices fall as North Korea worries fade, Yellen talks up rate hikes
• Crude oil price pullback undone as API shows surprise inventory draw
• EIA data may boost oil as gold digests ahead of US GDP, PCE reports

Gold prices retreated worries about worries about the war of words between the US and North Korea faded while Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a modestly hawkish tone in a much anticipated speech (as expected). FOMC rate hike prospects remain in focus. Another batch of speeches from Fed officials will cross the wires alongside statistics on durable goods orders and pending home sales.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 SEPTEMBER 2017

• US Dollar gains as Fed rate hike bets swell, may ignore Q2 GDP revision
• British Pound may rise as BOE’s Carney puts rates policy back into focus
• Euro might correct higher as uptick in German CPI stokes QE taper hopes

The US Dollar continued to march higher in Asia Pacific trade, with the currency now on pace to score a fifth consecutive day of broad-based gains versus its top counterparts. Firming Fed rate hike prospects remain the driver behind the advance, with prices rising alongside front-end bond yields and the policy path implied in Fed Funds futures continuing to steepen in tandem.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 SEPTEMBER 2017

• US Dollar returns to the offensive as PCE data looms ahead
• UK GDP upgrade might bolster Pound on rate hike outlook

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in Asia Pacific trade, falling against all of its major counterparts in a move that seemed to be corrective following the previous day’s outsized gains. The Japanese Yen likewise traded lower after the BOJ hinted that stimulus expansion may be ahead.

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