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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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8 years 11 months ago #11140
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 5 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 MEI 2017
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Rise 190K, Jobless Rate to Uptick to Annualized 4.6%.
- Average Hourly Earnings to Expand 2.7% Per Annum for Second Straight Month.
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may generate a mixed market reaction as the economy is anticipated to add 190K jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to uptick to an annualized 4.6% from 4.5% the month prior. Moreover, household earnings are expected to hold steady at 2.7% per annum, and a lackluster labor report may fuel the near-term resilience in EUR/USD especially as market attention turns to the final around of the French election.
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- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Rise 190K, Jobless Rate to Uptick to Annualized 4.6%.
- Average Hourly Earnings to Expand 2.7% Per Annum for Second Straight Month.
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may generate a mixed market reaction as the economy is anticipated to add 190K jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to uptick to an annualized 4.6% from 4.5% the month prior. Moreover, household earnings are expected to hold steady at 2.7% per annum, and a lackluster labor report may fuel the near-term resilience in EUR/USD especially as market attention turns to the final around of the French election.
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8 years 11 months ago #11143
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 MEI 2017
• Euro falls even as Macron wins French presidential election
• NZ Dollar before RBNZ meeting, Aussie falls after China data
• Japanese Yen may rise as sentiment sours around the markets
The Euro declined even as market favorite Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious in the second round of the French presidential election. As argued previously, the outcome was widely expected. With uncertainty about the vote now out of the way, the markets seemed to have reverted to underlying fundamentals. On this front, an ultra-dovish ECB and lingering Brexit-related risk remain potent reasons for weakness.
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• Euro falls even as Macron wins French presidential election
• NZ Dollar before RBNZ meeting, Aussie falls after China data
• Japanese Yen may rise as sentiment sours around the markets
The Euro declined even as market favorite Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious in the second round of the French presidential election. As argued previously, the outcome was widely expected. With uncertainty about the vote now out of the way, the markets seemed to have reverted to underlying fundamentals. On this front, an ultra-dovish ECB and lingering Brexit-related risk remain potent reasons for weakness.
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8 years 11 months ago #11145
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MEI 2017
• Yen moves may take top billing as risk trends drive price action
• Aussie Dollar drops as soft retail sales data hurts RBA outlook
• NZ Dollar declines as sentiment sours in Asian trading session
It is another quiet day ahead on the European and US economic data front. Meanwhile, a loaded docket of Fed commentary may pass with little incident considering investors’ near-term policy bets are seemingly locked in. The probability of a June rate hike implied in Fed Funds futures is now 100 percent.
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• Yen moves may take top billing as risk trends drive price action
• Aussie Dollar drops as soft retail sales data hurts RBA outlook
• NZ Dollar declines as sentiment sours in Asian trading session
It is another quiet day ahead on the European and US economic data front. Meanwhile, a loaded docket of Fed commentary may pass with little incident considering investors’ near-term policy bets are seemingly locked in. The probability of a June rate hike implied in Fed Funds futures is now 100 percent.
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8 years 11 months ago #11149
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 MEI 2017
• Euro looking to speech from ECB President Draghi for direction cues
• Fighting words from EU ambassadors discussing Brexit may boost Yen
• Australian Dollar shrugged off Chinese inflation data, rose with stocks
Another quiet day on the economic data front is ahead, with Europe and the US offering just a handful of second-tier releases. ECB President Mario Draghi may cause a stir however. He is scheduled to speak at the Dutch parliament. A dovish tone that clashes with a recent upshift in interest rate expectations may weigh on the Euro. The markets now see better-than-even odds of a rate hike in the first quarter of 2018.
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• Euro looking to speech from ECB President Draghi for direction cues
• Fighting words from EU ambassadors discussing Brexit may boost Yen
• Australian Dollar shrugged off Chinese inflation data, rose with stocks
Another quiet day on the economic data front is ahead, with Europe and the US offering just a handful of second-tier releases. ECB President Mario Draghi may cause a stir however. He is scheduled to speak at the Dutch parliament. A dovish tone that clashes with a recent upshift in interest rate expectations may weigh on the Euro. The markets now see better-than-even odds of a rate hike in the first quarter of 2018.
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8 years 11 months ago #11150
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 MEI 2017
- Bank of England (BoE) to Retain Current Policy Following 8 to 1 Split in March.
- Will the Policy Statement Reveal a Growing Rift Within the BoE?
Even though the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, the fresh updates to the quarterly inflation report may fuel the relief rally in the British Pound should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. economy.
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- Bank of England (BoE) to Retain Current Policy Following 8 to 1 Split in March.
- Will the Policy Statement Reveal a Growing Rift Within the BoE?
Even though the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, the fresh updates to the quarterly inflation report may fuel the relief rally in the British Pound should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. economy.
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8 years 11 months ago #11152
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 12 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 MEI 2017
• Gold prices snapped the longest losing streak in 7 months
• Yields drop in risk-off trade may help extend the rebound
• Crude oil prices rose even as OPEC foresaw supply swell
Gold prices edged, snapping the longest losing streak since October 2016. Treasury yields declined as stocks fell and capital fled to the safety of government debt, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.
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• Gold prices snapped the longest losing streak in 7 months
• Yields drop in risk-off trade may help extend the rebound
• Crude oil prices rose even as OPEC foresaw supply swell
Gold prices edged, snapping the longest losing streak since October 2016. Treasury yields declined as stocks fell and capital fled to the safety of government debt, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal.
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8 years 11 months ago #11156
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 MEI 2017
• Crude oil prices surge on hopes for OPEC output cut extension
• EIA drilling productivity data may limit upside follow-through
• Gold prices on the upswing after soft US CPI, retail sales stats
Crude oil prices surged amid reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia along with several other major producers agree to extend the OPEC-led production cut scheme expiring mid-year through the first quarter of 2018. It remains to be seen if the move maintains momentum as the EIA drilling productivity report crosses the wires, reminding markets that swelling swing supply has bedeviled the cartel’s efforts thus far.
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• Crude oil prices surge on hopes for OPEC output cut extension
• EIA drilling productivity data may limit upside follow-through
• Gold prices on the upswing after soft US CPI, retail sales stats
Crude oil prices surged amid reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia along with several other major producers agree to extend the OPEC-led production cut scheme expiring mid-year through the first quarter of 2018. It remains to be seen if the move maintains momentum as the EIA drilling productivity report crosses the wires, reminding markets that swelling swing supply has bedeviled the cartel’s efforts thus far.
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8 years 11 months ago #11157
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 16 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 MEI 2017
• Gold price rally fizzles following advance to two-week high
• Crude oil prices extend gains on OPEC output cut extension
• API inventory data, sentiment trends in the spotlight ahead
Gold prices attempted another spirited run upward but recoiled downward after rising to a two-week high, finishing yesterday’s session with only meager gains. The yellow metal’s swings played out inversely of similarly choppy moves in the US Dollar. Seesaw action seemed to reflect the absence of a clear-cut catalyst for trend development.
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• Gold price rally fizzles following advance to two-week high
• Crude oil prices extend gains on OPEC output cut extension
• API inventory data, sentiment trends in the spotlight ahead
Gold prices attempted another spirited run upward but recoiled downward after rising to a two-week high, finishing yesterday’s session with only meager gains. The yellow metal’s swings played out inversely of similarly choppy moves in the US Dollar. Seesaw action seemed to reflect the absence of a clear-cut catalyst for trend development.
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8 years 11 months ago #11164
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 17 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 MEI 2017
• Crude oil prices follow stocks lower as risk appetite sours
• Gold prices advance as haven flows boost bonds, sink yields
• US politics may overshadow EIA data, OPEC commentary
Crude oil prices declined even as an IEA report endorsed OPEC-led production cut efforts to rebalance the market awash in excess supply and Iraq backed moves to extend the scheme. The WTI contract followed stocks downward, hinting that eroding risk appetite sapped support. Losses were compounded after API reported that US inventories rose by 882k barrels last week.
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• Crude oil prices follow stocks lower as risk appetite sours
• Gold prices advance as haven flows boost bonds, sink yields
• US politics may overshadow EIA data, OPEC commentary
Crude oil prices declined even as an IEA report endorsed OPEC-led production cut efforts to rebalance the market awash in excess supply and Iraq backed moves to extend the scheme. The WTI contract followed stocks downward, hinting that eroding risk appetite sapped support. Losses were compounded after API reported that US inventories rose by 882k barrels last week.
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8 years 11 months ago #11166
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 MEI 2017
• Gold prices rise most in 11 months on US political uncertainty
• Crude oil prices succumb to risk aversion after EIA-driven gain
• Hawkish comments from Fed’s Mester may temper gold rally
Gold prices raced higher as worries about political instability in the US swept financial markets. Capital fled for the safety of Treasury bonds, pushing yields lower. The prospect of market turmoil also cooled Fed rate hike speculation, flattening the priced-in tightening outlook implied in interest rate futures and sinking the US Dollar. Not surprisingly, all this proved supportive for non-yielding and anti-fiat assets.
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• Gold prices rise most in 11 months on US political uncertainty
• Crude oil prices succumb to risk aversion after EIA-driven gain
• Hawkish comments from Fed’s Mester may temper gold rally
Gold prices raced higher as worries about political instability in the US swept financial markets. Capital fled for the safety of Treasury bonds, pushing yields lower. The prospect of market turmoil also cooled Fed rate hike speculation, flattening the priced-in tightening outlook implied in interest rate futures and sinking the US Dollar. Not surprisingly, all this proved supportive for non-yielding and anti-fiat assets.
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8 years 11 months ago #11167
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 MEI 2017
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Increase for First Time Since January.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Pick Up for First Time in 2017.
A pickup in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a near-term pullback in USD/CAD as signs of stronger inflation puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.
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- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Increase for First Time Since January.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Pick Up for First Time in 2017.
A pickup in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a near-term pullback in USD/CAD as signs of stronger inflation puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.
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8 years 10 months ago #11171
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 22 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 MEI 2017
• Gold prices stall after rising to a three-week high
• Upbeat Fed commentary may trigger a turn lower
• Crude oil prices rise with OPEC meeting in focus
Gold prices edged higher on Friday in a move that seemed corrective after the metal suffered its largest drawdown in two weeks in the preceding session. The spotlight now turns to a busy docket of scheduled commentary from Fed officials.
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• Gold prices stall after rising to a three-week high
• Upbeat Fed commentary may trigger a turn lower
• Crude oil prices rise with OPEC meeting in focus
Gold prices edged higher on Friday in a move that seemed corrective after the metal suffered its largest drawdown in two weeks in the preceding session. The spotlight now turns to a busy docket of scheduled commentary from Fed officials.
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8 years 10 months ago #11176
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 23 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 MEI 2017
• Crude oil prices extend advance as key OPEC meeting nears
• Gold prices edge up as Treasury bond yields, US Dollar fall
• Fed-speak, US PMI and API oil inventory data now in focus
Crude oil prices scored a fourth consecutive advance, continuing to drift upward as expected as markets await the extension of an OPEC-led production cut scheme due to expire mid-year at a meeting later this week. The weekly API inventory flow report is now in the spotlight. That will set the tone for official EIA data due the following day, where markets expect to see a 2.25 million barrel drawdown.
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• Crude oil prices extend advance as key OPEC meeting nears
• Gold prices edge up as Treasury bond yields, US Dollar fall
• Fed-speak, US PMI and API oil inventory data now in focus
Crude oil prices scored a fourth consecutive advance, continuing to drift upward as expected as markets await the extension of an OPEC-led production cut scheme due to expire mid-year at a meeting later this week. The weekly API inventory flow report is now in the spotlight. That will set the tone for official EIA data due the following day, where markets expect to see a 2.25 million barrel drawdown.
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8 years 10 months ago #11177
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 MEI 2017
• US Dollar may rise on upbeat minutes from May FOMC meeting
• Euro may shrug off familiar rhetoric from ECB President Draghi
• Aussie Dollar leads commodity FX lower after China rating cut
Financial markets are likely to look beyond a relatively quiet European economic calendar to focus on the release of minutes from May’s FOMC policy meeting. Confident rhetoric suggesting the rate hike cycle will not be sidelined by US political jitters may boost the US Dollar. In fact, investors may suspect just such an outcome: the greenback recovered to a five-day high in yesterday session.
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• US Dollar may rise on upbeat minutes from May FOMC meeting
• Euro may shrug off familiar rhetoric from ECB President Draghi
• Aussie Dollar leads commodity FX lower after China rating cut
Financial markets are likely to look beyond a relatively quiet European economic calendar to focus on the release of minutes from May’s FOMC policy meeting. Confident rhetoric suggesting the rate hike cycle will not be sidelined by US political jitters may boost the US Dollar. In fact, investors may suspect just such an outcome: the greenback recovered to a five-day high in yesterday session.
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8 years 10 months ago #11178
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 MEI 2017
- Q1 GDP disappoints at 0.2% compared to 0.7% Q4 2016 growth.
- GBP struggles as Brexit fears start to weigh on the UK economy.
The second estimate of UK Q1 GDP missed analysts’ expectations and came in at a lowly 0.2% compared to the preliminary estimate of 0.3% and Q4 2016’s 0.7%. On an annualized basis UK GDP edged lower to 2.0% from 2.1%.
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- Q1 GDP disappoints at 0.2% compared to 0.7% Q4 2016 growth.
- GBP struggles as Brexit fears start to weigh on the UK economy.
The second estimate of UK Q1 GDP missed analysts’ expectations and came in at a lowly 0.2% compared to the preliminary estimate of 0.3% and Q4 2016’s 0.7%. On an annualized basis UK GDP edged lower to 2.0% from 2.1%.
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8 years 10 months ago #11180
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 MEI 2017
• Yen may extend gains as G7 rancor weighs on risk appetite
• US Dollar may drop as revised Q1 GDP data disappoints
• British Pound falls as Tories’ lead shrinks before election
The Yen outperformed in Asian trade as most regional stock exchanges suffered, boosting the perennially anti-risk Japanese currency. Energy and raw materials shares plunged in a move that probably echoed yesterday’s dramatic drop in crude oil prices. That seemed to reflect profit-taking after the extension of an OPEC-led output cut scheme offered nothing that was not already priced in.
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• Yen may extend gains as G7 rancor weighs on risk appetite
• US Dollar may drop as revised Q1 GDP data disappoints
• British Pound falls as Tories’ lead shrinks before election
The Yen outperformed in Asian trade as most regional stock exchanges suffered, boosting the perennially anti-risk Japanese currency. Energy and raw materials shares plunged in a move that probably echoed yesterday’s dramatic drop in crude oil prices. That seemed to reflect profit-taking after the extension of an OPEC-led output cut scheme offered nothing that was not already priced in.
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8 years 10 months ago #11183
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 29 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 MEI 2017
• British Pound corrects higher after last week’s selloff
• Comments from ECB’s Draghi headline quiet calendar
• Euro may fall as dovish rhetoric cools tightening bets
The British Pound outperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade as prices retraced after political uncertainty jitters triggered a dramatic selloff on Friday. Market closures in China, the UK and the US made for lackluster activity amid thinned liquidity conditions elsewhere in the G10 FX space.
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• British Pound corrects higher after last week’s selloff
• Comments from ECB’s Draghi headline quiet calendar
• Euro may fall as dovish rhetoric cools tightening bets
The British Pound outperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade as prices retraced after political uncertainty jitters triggered a dramatic selloff on Friday. Market closures in China, the UK and the US made for lackluster activity amid thinned liquidity conditions elsewhere in the G10 FX space.
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8 years 10 months ago #11184
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 30 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 MEI 2017
• Gold prices rise as UK pre-election poll stokes uncertainty fears
• US news-flow may cool Fed rate hike bets, extending gold gains
• Crude oil prices bounce, looking ahead to key EIA and API data
Gold prices rose, moving inversely of a steep drop in the British Pound. That move was triggered by a poll showing the ruling Conservatives’ lead ahead of the upcoming UK general election shrank to the smallest since mid-July 2016, stoking political uncertainty jitters. Looking ahead, a round of soft US economic data may weigh on Fed rate hike bets and push the yellow metal higher still.
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• Gold prices rise as UK pre-election poll stokes uncertainty fears
• US news-flow may cool Fed rate hike bets, extending gold gains
• Crude oil prices bounce, looking ahead to key EIA and API data
Gold prices rose, moving inversely of a steep drop in the British Pound. That move was triggered by a poll showing the ruling Conservatives’ lead ahead of the upcoming UK general election shrank to the smallest since mid-July 2016, stoking political uncertainty jitters. Looking ahead, a round of soft US economic data may weigh on Fed rate hike bets and push the yellow metal higher still.
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8 years 10 months ago #11186
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Mei 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 MEI 2017
• British Pound drops after latest UK pre-election poll
• Euro unlikely to find follow-through in flash CPI data
• US Dollar may weaken on downbeat Fed Beige Book
The British Pound underperformed in Asian trade. The currency fell after a YouGov poll suggested that the ruling Conservative party would fall short of a parliamentary majority by 16 seats in the upcoming general election. Until recently, the Tories were expected to win a commanding mandate after voters cast their ballots on June 8.
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• British Pound drops after latest UK pre-election poll
• Euro unlikely to find follow-through in flash CPI data
• US Dollar may weaken on downbeat Fed Beige Book
The British Pound underperformed in Asian trade. The currency fell after a YouGov poll suggested that the ruling Conservative party would fall short of a parliamentary majority by 16 seats in the upcoming general election. Until recently, the Tories were expected to win a commanding mandate after voters cast their ballots on June 8.
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8 years 10 months ago #11188
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Juni 2017
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JUNI 2017
• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Euro locked in wide range below 6-month high vs. US Dollar
• Setup inconclusive despite fading relative strength readings
The Euro has stalled after rising to the highest level in six months against the US Dollar, will prices oscillating in a wide range below the 1.13 figure. Fading relative strength studies point to ebbing upside momentum, but that is no sure sign of on-coming reversal and may only reflect consolidation.
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• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Euro locked in wide range below 6-month high vs. US Dollar
• Setup inconclusive despite fading relative strength readings
The Euro has stalled after rising to the highest level in six months against the US Dollar, will prices oscillating in a wide range below the 1.13 figure. Fading relative strength studies point to ebbing upside momentum, but that is no sure sign of on-coming reversal and may only reflect consolidation.
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