Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 FEBRUARI 2018

• Crude oil prices track stocks prices upward ahead of Powell testimony
• Gold price recovery struggles to gain steam at trend-defining support

Crude oil prices continued to take their cues from a broader recovery in market sentiment, with the WTI benchmark tracking higher alongside the S&P 500 stock index. Gold prices edged up too, although a late-day recovery in the US Dollar cooled momentum for the standby alternative to paper currencies.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 FEBRUARI 2018

- The Euro was little changed in Europe Wednesday after ‘flash’ Euro-Zone inflation numbers for February.
- The headline figure eased to 1.2% year/year from 1.3%, as predicted, while the core measure slipped to 1.1% from the prior 1.2%. An unchanged 1.2% had been expected.

Euro-Zone inflation eased to 1.2% year/year in February from 1.3% the month before, as expected, according to official “flash” data. Core inflation eased, to 1.1% from 1.2%, when an unchanged number had been predicted.
However, the figures had little impact on the Euro ahead of next Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s rate-setting Governing Council. The ECB remains likely to tighten monetary policy this year, with rate rises perhaps following next year, and today’s inflation data do nothing to alter that outlook.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 MAART 2018

- IG Client Sentiment data are pointing to price rises for cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether.
- However, the figures are negative for Ripple and Litecoin prices.

The latest IG Client Sentiment data show 71.2% of traders are net-long Bitcoin, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.47 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% lower than yesterday and 8.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.5% higher than yesterday and 2.3% lower from last week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MAART 2018

- Italy goes to the polls on Sunday adding uncertainty to the single-bloc’s currency.
- EURUSD already under pressure as proposed US tariffs spark concerns.

The most heavily traded currency pair, EURUSD, is likely to come under renewed downward pressure in the short- to medium-term as a raft of political risks collide.
The outcome of Sunday’s Italian General Election is still far from clear and remains capable of producing a shock result. For the first time in Italian election a new electoral law will be in force that states that no bonus seats are available for any party that gets an absolute majority.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 MAART 2018

• Gold prices find fresh support as trade war fears hit financial markets
• Crude oil prices vulnerable as Italian election helps sour risk appetite

Gold price found interim support and are attempting an offensive having touched a two-month low last week. The drop was set off by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that tarnished the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. The move turned as US President Donald Trump unexpectedly hiked tariffs on steel and aluminum, shocking markets.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 MAART 2018

- The European Central Bank may remove its ‘easing bias’ when its Governing Council meets on Thursday.
- That would support the Euro, which has so far ignored the inconclusive results of the weekend’s General Elections in Italy.

The European Central Bank’s rate-setting Governing Council is almost certain to leave all its monetary policy settings unchanged when it meets this Thursday but there could be a change in its language that would help the Euro.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 MAART 2018

- As Brexit negotiations continue between the EU and the UK, the two sides seem as far apart as ever.
- With EURGBP already at its highest level since November 28 last year, further gains seem likely near term.

The Pound has come under more pressure against the Euro, with EURGBP reaching its highest level since November 28, 2017, and the cross looks set to reach the psychologically important 0.90 mark near-term as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the UK currency.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 MAART 2018

• All eyes on ECB policy announcement in European trading hours
• Euro may decline as Draghi disappoints bets on QE unwind signal
• Canadian Dollar gains as White House hints at tariff exemptions

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy decision in European trading hours. While no changes are expected this time around, financial markets are looking for official rhetoric to signal that the end of the QE asset purchase scheme is on the horizon.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MAART 2018

- Canada publishes labor market data today and, with CAD sentiment highly bearish, the figures could prompt a rally.

- However, as the report is published at the same as US payrolls data, traders wanting to react to the figures should concentrate on EURCAD rather than USDCAD.

Canada will publish its regular monthly jobs report today, with market forecasts centring on a 21,000 increase in employment and an unchanged 5.9% unemployment rate. However, it would be most unwise to trade the data via USDCAD as the US labor market report is published at the same time and USDCAD will react principally to that.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 MAART 2018

- Bearish daily key reversal in EUR/USD after the ECB meeting on Thursday warns of further downside for the Euro.
- Upcoming calendar this week is exceptionally light, meaning the Euro isn’t in control of its own fate over the coming days.

The Euro was the third-worst performing major currency last week, only outpacing the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc amid a rebound in global risk appetite. Despite the European Central Bank dropping its pledge to increase its QE program again over the coming months, market participants also heard from ECB President Mario Draghi that rates would remain low until inflation gets back to their +2% medium-term target – something not expected to happen over the next three years.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 MAART 2018

• Aussie, NZ Dollar gain as markets look ahead to US inflation data
• US Dollar may rise if CPI reboots bets on steep Fed rate hike path
• Yen may rise as commodity bloc FX suffers if data sours sentiment

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars edged cautiously higher in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming US CPI report. The data is expected to show that the headline inflation rate edged up to 2.2 percent in February.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 MAART 2018

- U.S. Retail Sales to Increase 0.3% After Unexpectedly Contracting 0.3% in January 2018. Rebound in Private Consumption to Keep Fed on Track for Three Rate-Hikes in 2018.
- EUR/USD Carves Higher & Lows Following Recent Batch of Lackluster U.S. Data Prints. Monthly Range at Risk as Relative Strength Index (RSI) Threatens Bearish Formation.

A 0.3% rise in U.S. Retail Sales may spark a limited reaction as it does little to alter the monetary policy outlook, but a marked rebound in household consumption may curb the recent advance in EUR/USD as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 MAART 2018

- Cryptocurrency market records heavy losses
- Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin and Ethereum may be oversold in the short-term

The cryptocurrency market has suffered another 24-hours of heavy losses as sellers dominate the market, pushing prices through support levels and back towards multi-weeks lows. In just over two months, the overall market value has fallen from a record $830 billion to a current level of $317 billion and is on course to hit the $279 billion low on February 6.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 MAART 2018

- UK inflation, jobless claims, wage data and the latest MPC decision all on the docket next week.
- European Council meeting will review the latest Brexit developments.

UK asset traders will welcome next week’s busy schedule which includes a raft of potentially market moving data releases and events after this week's blank docket. The Bank of England will announce its latest policy decision on Thursday March 22 - with no change expected – and traders should look at the accompanying release to see if MPC members are shifting further towards a rate hike in May.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 MAART 2018

- The Euro’s early-week gains were undercut by a rocky second-half last week, although it still gained against all of the commodity currencies.
- A continued underperformance of data relative to expectations alongside eroding inflation expectations may soon bite the Euro.

A week after the European Central Bank met, traders have still yet to make up their mind about the Euro. The single currency for 19 countries in the Eurozone lost ground against the Japanese Yen, British Pound, and US Dollar once more, but edged higher against the commodity bloc – the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 MAART 2018

UK Inflation Falls; GBP Now Eyes Wages Data and Bank of England

UK inflation fell more than expected in February – to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% in January and against expectations of 2.8% - as a stronger British Pound and weaker energy prices crimped price rises. Sterling fell against the USD but further moves are expected to be limited with both the Bank of England and the US Fed announcing their latest monetary policy reports over the next two days.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 MAART 2018

- The strong upward trend in GBP/USD looks set to continue after robust UK labour market figures.
- The Bank of England remains unlikely to increase UK interest rates tomorrow but a hike in May is now even more probable.

GBPUSD rose strongly after the latest UK employment report and looks set to extend its gains as its upward trend remains intact. Similarly, the downward trend in EURGBP remains in place, as does the upward trend in GBPJPY.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 MAART 2018

• British Pound eyes BOE vote tally for May rate hike signal
• US Dollar lower as APAC markets react to Fed policy call
• Yen gains as local headwinds restrain Aussie, NZ Dollars

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England is in focus in European trading hours. No changes are expected this time around but the tone of minutes from the sit-down – most notably the vote count on the rate-setting MPC committee – will warrant attention.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 MAART 2018

- US Trade sanctions on Chinese imports will bring retaliatory measures.
- New US National Security advisor John Bolton will likely harden foreign policy.

Financial markets on Friday went into full-on risk adverse mode after the imposition of US trade tariffs on China and the promotion of foreign policy hawk John Bolton to the US National Security adviser. US president Trump announced plans to introduce a 25% tariff on USD60 billion of Chinese imports, a move that will bring a sharp reaction from Beijing over the coming days.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 MAART 2018

• Euro rejected at familiar trend line resistance once again
• Break of minor support exposes support below 1.22 figure
• Opting not to scale up exposure as Fed policy call looms

The Euro is struggling to find near-term directional conviction but overall chart positioning is still suggesting that the path of least resistance leads lower. Last week’s hint at bearish acceleration proved misleading but price action continues to be defined by a series of lower highs set from a double top formed below 1.26.

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