Topic-icon Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

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7 years 10 months ago #11632 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 Mei 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 MEI 2018

- The Turkish Lira was boosted Wednesday by a sharp increase in Turkey’s benchmark interest rate.
- However, the advance is already reversing and USDTRY is heading higher again.

The Turkish Lira is weakening again in Europe Thursday after a brief lift from a decision by Turkey’s central bank to hike its benchmark interest rate to 16.5% from 13.5% in an attempt to arrest the currency’s steep slide lower. As a result, USDTRY is again challenging the 4.7 level after easing to a low of 4.5392 Wednesday in the wake of the rate increase.

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7 years 10 months ago #11633 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Mei 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 MEI 2018

• Yen corrects lower after biggest two-day rally in a year
• US Dollar back on offense before Fed’s Powell speaks
• British Pound casts wary eye on Q1 UK GDP revision

The US Dollar returned to the offensive in Asia Pacific trade as all eyes turned to an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He will address financial stability and central bank transparency at a Risksbank event in Stockholm. The comments may echo a similar talk delivered earlier this month saying spillover risks will not delay the US tightening cycle. If so, the greenback has scope to continue higher.

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7 years 10 months ago #11634 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 29 Mei 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 MEI 2018

• Yen up, Aussie & NZ Dollars down as APAC markets rethink Italy
• China hint at RRR cut fails to make a lasting dent in risk aversion
• FTSE 100, S&P 500 futures hint sentiment is likely to sour further

Risk aversion returned with a vengeance in Asia Pacific trade as local bourses took stock of Europe’s response to ongoing in Italy. News that President Sergio Mattarella blocked the appointment of a eurosceptic to the Economy Ministry was celebrated until Europe came online Monday, with traders seemingly happy to see anti-EU populism checked.

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7 years 10 months ago #11635 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 30 Mei 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 MEI 2018

• BoC likely to keeps rates unchanged amid rising global uncertainty, most notably from NAFTA
• Focus on accompanying statement which will dictate CAD price action.

The Bank of Canada will publish its latest interest rate decision at 1400GMT where the central bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.25%, according to 26 out of the 29 surveyed economists. OIS (Overnight Index Swaps) markets also attach a 90% likelihood that the central bank will stand pat on interest rates, as such, focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement.

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7 years 10 months ago #11636 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Mei 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 MEI 2018

• Yen gains, Aussie and NZ Dollars fall as markets retrace risk recovery
• Euro, US Dollar may ignore incoming CPI and PCE inflation figures
• Trump trade war jitters, Italian turmoil, G7 summit to guide sentiment

Currency markets found little traction in Asia Pacific trade. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars edged down while the Japanese Yen rose as sentiment-linked currencies retraced some of the moves recorded amid a recovery in risk appetite in the prior session. A lull in negative news flow out of Italy allowed investors to breathe a sigh of relief after 48 hours of bloodletting, as expected.

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7 years 10 months ago #11637 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JUNI 2018

- Italian risk lowered but not removed.
- EURUSD may weaken further on a strong US non-farm payroll print.

Italian financial markets have recovered early losses seen at the start of the week on the formation of a new Five Star Party – Northern League government. The populist government will be sworn into power later on today after Italian President Mattarella agreed to a revised list of ministers. Market thinking is that a more extreme anti-EU government has now been averted, leading to sharp falls in Italian bond yields and hefty gains in the equity space, especially Italian banking stocks.

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7 years 10 months ago #11638 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 4 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 JUNI 2018

• Swiss Franc speculative selling continues, largest short since 2007
• Euro and crude oil large net-longs trimmed again, buyers show up in precious metals
• Large speculative positioning profiles for major markets/currencies

This past week we saw the Swiss Franc net-short position among large speculators grow further into levels not seen since 2007. Euro large speculators’ net-long is under 100k for the first time since December, while crude oil specs also trimmed their position for a sixth week in a row.

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7 years 10 months ago #11639 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 5 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 JUNI 2018

• US Dollar edging higher after ebbing Italy worries reverse haven gains
• Strong ISM data, further risk recovery may put Fed hikes back in focus
• Aussie Dollar correcting lower after surge with some help from the RBA

The US Dollar clawed its way higher in Asia Pacific after yesterday’s fourth consecutive daily loss amid ebbing worries about concerns about political instability in Italy and Spain. The greenback retreated from an 11-mont high after Rome took a step back from the brink and Madrid seemed to manage a relatively orderly removal of long-serving Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

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7 years 10 months ago #11640 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 6 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 JUNI 2018

- The G7 summit that begins in Canada on Friday is certain to be dominated by fears of a trade war.
- That could weaken the US Dollar further after its declines over the past few sessions.

The G7 summit that begins in Canada on Friday could prove to be a difficult hurdle for the US Dollar to jump, focusing attention on renewed fears of a trade war just as the currency is beginning to lose some of its recent strong gains.

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7 years 10 months ago #11641 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 JUNI 2018

• Yen up, Aussie Dollar down as markets digest in Asia Pacific trade
• Defensive flows before G7 leaders’ summit may sour market mood
• US Dollar may find a lifeline on the back of haven-seeking demand

The Japanese Yen outperformed in Asia Pacific trade, retracing some of the prior session’s standout losses. On the other side of the spectrum, the Australian Dollar underperformed as prices corrected lower following yesterday’s outsized gains. The rest of the G10 FX space was mired in consolidation mode as the absence of top-tier scheduled event risk offered traders a bit of room to reflect.

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7 years 10 months ago #11642 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 JUNI 2018

• US Dollar, Yen aim higher as trade war fears swell before G7
• Aussie Dollar down as trade war jitters shake APAC markets
• Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso fall on worries about NAFTA

The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade as risk appetite soured, with the MSCI regional benchmark equity index shedding 1.4 percent. Investors’ dour mood likely reflects worries about the looming G7 leaders’ summit getting underway in Quebec.

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7 years 10 months ago #11644 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 JUNI 2018
• Yen lower, Aussie and NZ Dollars higher before Trump/Kim summit
• Canadian Dollar down following tumultuous gathering of G7 leaders
• Euro up before ECB meeting expected to bring QE strategy update

Currencies anchored to market sentiment reflected a cautiously optimistic mood across Asia Pacific bourses at the start of the week. Hopes for rapprochement at tomorrow’s meeting between US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore likely drove the move. The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded lower while on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars rose.

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7 years 10 months ago #11645 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 12 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 JUNI 2018

Updates to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may sap the near-term rebound in EUR/USD as the headline and core reading for inflation are projected to pick up in May.

Data prints pointing to heightening price pressures may push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to signal a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, and the central bank may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate.’

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7 years 10 months ago #11647 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 JUNI 2018

• British Pound may fall as UK CPI data falls short of expectations
• US Dollar might rise as the FOMC adopts a more hawkish stance
• Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso lower amid NAFTA worries

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to print at 2.4 percent on-year in May, unchanged from the prior month. Leading PMI surveys argue for softer price growth however, echoing a string of recent disappointments on UK data outcomes relative to consensus forecasts. Such a result is likely to weigh on the British Pound.

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7 years 10 months ago #11648 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 JUNI 2018

- The European Central Bank’s Governing Council will discuss ending its stimulus program today but an announcement of the end of QE is unlikely until July.
- That could weaken EURUSD unless ECB President Mario Draghi adopts a hawkish stance at his press conference after the meeting.

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council, which sets monetary policy for the Eurozone, will likely discuss when to end its stimulus program for the Eurozone economy at its meeting in Riga, Latvia, today. However, ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues are not expected to announce the end of its asset purchases until their July 26 meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

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7 years 10 months ago #11651 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 JUNI 2018

• Commodity currencies down with Chinese stocks on trade war fears
• BOJ holds policy unchanged, Yen might rise as risk aversion deepens
• UofM measure of US consumer confidence expected to rise in June

Trade war jitters look set to reclaim the spotlight in the final hours of the week. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars fell alongside stocks in China as the US prepared to release a list of goods from the East Asian giant that will be subject to a new $50 billion round of tariffs.

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7 years 10 months ago #11653 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 JUNI 2018

• Yen, Swiss Franc aim higher as trade war worries sour market mood
• Australian, NZ Dollars may bear the brunt of risk-off selling pressure
• Hawkish Fed-speak might help US Dollar continue to build upward

The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed as trade war worries soured risk appetite in Asia Pacific trade. Having dispensed with last week’s heavy duty event risk, financial markets have turned their attention to the threat to global growth posed by deepening fissures between the US and other top economies (as expected). The immediate trigger was a China’s response to US tariffs over the weekend.

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7 years 10 months ago #11655 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 JUNI 2018

• US-China Trade War Sees AUD Under Pressure
• RBA Omits Guidance on Interest Rate Rise

China says US Initiates Trade War
Market sentiment has soured considerably amid the latest escalation in the trade war between the US and China, which followed reports that the US are targeting fresh tariffs on Chinese exports valued at $200bln, while President Trump that 10% tariffs would come into effect if China does not change practices. In the wake of the reports from the US, high beta currencies, most notably the Australian Dollar plummeted to its lowest level since May 2017 given its large exposure to China.

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7 years 10 months ago #11658 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 JUNI 2018

• US Dollar may rise as ECB forum accents Fed, G10 policy divergence
• Aussie, NZ Dollars up and Yen lower as markets digest trade war jitters
• British Pound edging lower before key House of Commons Brexit vote

Currency markets settled into digestion mode in Asia Pacific trade as traders licked their wounds after yesterday’s bloodletting. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars recorded notable recoveries having plunged alongside equity prices yesterdays amid signs of an escalating Sino-US trade war. The anti-risk Japanese Yen edged down a bit as well as regional bourses retraced upward.

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7 years 9 months ago #11659 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 Juni 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 JUNI 2018

• British Pound may rise as the BOE upgrades official rhetoric
• SNB unlikely to budge from the ultra-loose policy status quo
• NZ Dollar sinks after disappointing 20-year bond sale results

Monetary policy announcements from the SNB and the Bank of England are in focus in European trading hours. The former is almost an afterthought. The dovish stance adopted by the ECB suggests that the Swiss central bank is likely to retain its ultra-accommodative posture, lest a drop in the EUR/CHF exchange rate undermine hard-fought progress toward rekindling inflation in recent months.

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