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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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7 years 7 months ago #11764
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 17 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 SEPTEMBER 2018
• Gold prices fell as firming Fed rate hike bets lifted yields, US Dollar
• Risk aversion may cap near-term gold drop, lasting rebound unlikely
• Crude oil prices eyeing OPEC+ call, EIA drilling productivity data
Gold prices fell as the US Dollar rose alongside front-end Treasury bond yields and the priced-in rate hike path implied in Fed funds futures steepened (as expected), undermining the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices oscillated in a volatile range but ultimately settled little-changed.
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• Gold prices fell as firming Fed rate hike bets lifted yields, US Dollar
• Risk aversion may cap near-term gold drop, lasting rebound unlikely
• Crude oil prices eyeing OPEC+ call, EIA drilling productivity data
Gold prices fell as the US Dollar rose alongside front-end Treasury bond yields and the priced-in rate hike path implied in Fed funds futures steepened (as expected), undermining the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices oscillated in a volatile range but ultimately settled little-changed.
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7 years 7 months ago #11765
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 SEPTEMBER 2018
• US dollar haven bid fades as President Trump applies tariffs.
• USD will remain supported as interest rates are raised.
The US dollar index (DXY) touched a six-week low Monday and broke through a noted technical support level before rebounding higher. The original fade lower came on the back of news that the US would impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports at a rate of 10%, not 25% as originally thought.
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• US dollar haven bid fades as President Trump applies tariffs.
• USD will remain supported as interest rates are raised.
The US dollar index (DXY) touched a six-week low Monday and broke through a noted technical support level before rebounding higher. The original fade lower came on the back of news that the US would impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports at a rate of 10%, not 25% as originally thought.
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7 years 7 months ago #11766
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 SEPTEMBER 2018
• British Pound may overlook UK CPI on muted rate hike bets
• Euro unlikely to find a lasting lead as ECB’s Draghi speaks
• US Dollar may rise in pre-positioning for Fed rate decision
UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to tick down to 2.4 percent in August. The outcome may pass without a meaningful response from the British Pound considering its limited implications for Bank of England monetary policy. Markets are not pricing in another rate hike at least until August 2019.
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• British Pound may overlook UK CPI on muted rate hike bets
• Euro unlikely to find a lasting lead as ECB’s Draghi speaks
• US Dollar may rise in pre-positioning for Fed rate decision
UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to tick down to 2.4 percent in August. The outcome may pass without a meaningful response from the British Pound considering its limited implications for Bank of England monetary policy. Markets are not pricing in another rate hike at least until August 2019.
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7 years 7 months ago #11768
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 SEPTEMBER 2018
• Bitcoin shows signs of stabilizing but needs to break above its recent lower high.
• Ethereum still remains negative and needs to build a base if it is to break higher.
BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM – A TALE OF TWO CHARTS
The recent bear market in the cryptocurrency space will have been drawn in some crypto-bulls with lower prices looking enticing, but the charts still paint an overall negative picture. If we look at the the two largest coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum, one looks like it is still steadily building a base, while the other has no positive technical signals.
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• Bitcoin shows signs of stabilizing but needs to break above its recent lower high.
• Ethereum still remains negative and needs to build a base if it is to break higher.
BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM – A TALE OF TWO CHARTS
The recent bear market in the cryptocurrency space will have been drawn in some crypto-bulls with lower prices looking enticing, but the charts still paint an overall negative picture. If we look at the the two largest coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum, one looks like it is still steadily building a base, while the other has no positive technical signals.
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7 years 6 months ago #11771
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 SEPTEMBER 2018
• Brexit talks take a turn for the worse, dampening enthusiasm for Sterling.
• Focus now turns to domestic Brexit politics and that may spell trouble for PM May.
Sterling’s two-week rally came to an abrupt halt late Thursday after the EU once again rejected PM Theresa May’s Chequers plan, putting Brexit negotiation risk back on the table. All the positive talk and sentiment leading up to the informal EU meeting in Salzburg was brushed aside after Donald Tusk, European Council President, said the plan ‘would not work’ and that the UK would have to go back to the drawing board.
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• Brexit talks take a turn for the worse, dampening enthusiasm for Sterling.
• Focus now turns to domestic Brexit politics and that may spell trouble for PM May.
Sterling’s two-week rally came to an abrupt halt late Thursday after the EU once again rejected PM Theresa May’s Chequers plan, putting Brexit negotiation risk back on the table. All the positive talk and sentiment leading up to the informal EU meeting in Salzburg was brushed aside after Donald Tusk, European Council President, said the plan ‘would not work’ and that the UK would have to go back to the drawing board.
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7 years 6 months ago #11772
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
• US Dollar up on haven flows as China talks away from trade talks
• Australian and NZ Dollars suffer outsized losses amid risk aversion
• Euro unlikely to find lasting direction cues as ECB’s Draghi speaks
The US Dollar rose at the start of the trading week, building on Friday’s spirited recovery. Risk aversion seemed to be driving force behind the advance after China walked away from trade talks with the US, stocking trade war escalation fears.
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• US Dollar up on haven flows as China talks away from trade talks
• Australian and NZ Dollars suffer outsized losses amid risk aversion
• Euro unlikely to find lasting direction cues as ECB’s Draghi speaks
The US Dollar rose at the start of the trading week, building on Friday’s spirited recovery. Risk aversion seemed to be driving force behind the advance after China walked away from trade talks with the US, stocking trade war escalation fears.
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7 years 6 months ago #11774
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 SEPTEMBER 2018
- The Federal Reserve will hike rates 25-bps tomorrow, but given that the event is 100% priced in per Fed funds futures, the US Dollar needs something else to spark a rebound.
- The technical structure for the US Dollar is pointing lower in the near-term amid a strengthening bearish momentum profile.
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is trading lower following the daily hammer established yesterday, which hinted at a possible rebound. Alas, with the DXY Index falling back after another test of resistance at the late-August lows, losses are once again taking shape. It's worth noting that the drop in the US Dollar is occuring while the US Treasury 10-year yield moved up past 3.100%, a fresh yearly high.
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- The Federal Reserve will hike rates 25-bps tomorrow, but given that the event is 100% priced in per Fed funds futures, the US Dollar needs something else to spark a rebound.
- The technical structure for the US Dollar is pointing lower in the near-term amid a strengthening bearish momentum profile.
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is trading lower following the daily hammer established yesterday, which hinted at a possible rebound. Alas, with the DXY Index falling back after another test of resistance at the late-August lows, losses are once again taking shape. It's worth noting that the drop in the US Dollar is occuring while the US Treasury 10-year yield moved up past 3.100%, a fresh yearly high.
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7 years 6 months ago #11777
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 SEPTEMBER 2018
• US Dollar may celebrate even a status quo FOMC policy posture
• New Zealand Dollar up on data, follow-through depends on RBNZ
• Aussie Dollar gains as MSCI angles to boost China index weight
A quiet offering on the European data docket puts the FOMC rate decision firmly in the spotlight. Rate hikes are convincingly priced in for this and December’s conclave, making the outlook for 2019 the central source of speculation. Markets have accounted for two rate increases next year while June’s central bank forecast narrowly called for three.
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• US Dollar may celebrate even a status quo FOMC policy posture
• New Zealand Dollar up on data, follow-through depends on RBNZ
• Aussie Dollar gains as MSCI angles to boost China index weight
A quiet offering on the European data docket puts the FOMC rate decision firmly in the spotlight. Rate hikes are convincingly priced in for this and December’s conclave, making the outlook for 2019 the central source of speculation. Markets have accounted for two rate increases next year while June’s central bank forecast narrowly called for three.
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7 years 6 months ago #11781
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 SEPTEMBER 2018
• US Dollar, Yen rise as APAC stocks follow Wall St lower after FOMC
• Euro to look past German CPI to focus on politics in Italy and Sweden
• Aussie, NZ Dollars may suffer outsized losses in broadly risk-off trade
The US Dollar traded broadly higher in Asia Pacific trade as regional investors took their turn to price in the outcome of the FOMC rate decision. The greenback rose despite a broadly status-quo outcome in a move that probably reflected a shift back to focus on the widening policy divergence between the Fed and its G10 counterparts, as expected.
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• US Dollar, Yen rise as APAC stocks follow Wall St lower after FOMC
• Euro to look past German CPI to focus on politics in Italy and Sweden
• Aussie, NZ Dollars may suffer outsized losses in broadly risk-off trade
The US Dollar traded broadly higher in Asia Pacific trade as regional investors took their turn to price in the outcome of the FOMC rate decision. The greenback rose despite a broadly status-quo outcome in a move that probably reflected a shift back to focus on the widening policy divergence between the Fed and its G10 counterparts, as expected.
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7 years 6 months ago #11782
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 28 September 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 SEPTEMBER 2018
• Gold prices plunge as US Dollar gains on Italy turmoil, Fed outlook
• Crude oil prices remain stuck at chart resistance below $73/barrel
• US PCE inflation data, EIA monthly output report now focus ahead
Gold prices tumbled as a spirited recovery in the US Dollar undercut the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. The greenback managed to capitalize on its haven and yield appeal on the same day, initially rising against the backdrop of political turmoil in Italy and continuing higher alongside front-end Treasury yields as markets continued to on-board the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy announcement.
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• Gold prices plunge as US Dollar gains on Italy turmoil, Fed outlook
• Crude oil prices remain stuck at chart resistance below $73/barrel
• US PCE inflation data, EIA monthly output report now focus ahead
Gold prices tumbled as a spirited recovery in the US Dollar undercut the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. The greenback managed to capitalize on its haven and yield appeal on the same day, initially rising against the backdrop of political turmoil in Italy and continuing higher alongside front-end Treasury yields as markets continued to on-board the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy announcement.
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7 years 6 months ago #11786
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 OKTOBER 2018
• Canadian Dollar soars as NAFTA renegotiation efforts finally bear fruit
• Yen drops in risk-on trade, S&P 500 futures hint at deeper losses ahead
• Swiss Franc may rise as Euro, Pound decline on regional political woes
The Canadian Dollar gapped higher at the start of the trading week as expected amid hopes for a breakthrough in NAFTA renegotiation efforts and continued to build higher once confirmation of an accord crossed the wires. The new framework – dubbed the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” or USMCA – ends over a year of haggling and, according to an official statement, establishes a “playbook for future trade deals”.
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• Canadian Dollar soars as NAFTA renegotiation efforts finally bear fruit
• Yen drops in risk-on trade, S&P 500 futures hint at deeper losses ahead
• Swiss Franc may rise as Euro, Pound decline on regional political woes
The Canadian Dollar gapped higher at the start of the trading week as expected amid hopes for a breakthrough in NAFTA renegotiation efforts and continued to build higher once confirmation of an accord crossed the wires. The new framework – dubbed the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” or USMCA – ends over a year of haggling and, according to an official statement, establishes a “playbook for future trade deals”.
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7 years 6 months ago #11790
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 OKTOBER 2018
• Crude oil prices soar as exports from Iran plunge before new sanctions
• Gold prices mark time after tepid rebound to retest former support level
• API inventory report on tap, Fed Chair Powell to speak at NABE event
Crude oil prices surged after Bloomberg reported tanker tracking data showing exports from Iran fell to a 2.5-year low at 1.72 million barrels in September. This is before the looming re-imposition of US sanctions, which follows the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from a nuclear disarmament accord with Tehran agreed to by former President Barack Obama. Gold prices marked time after Friday’s upswing.
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• Crude oil prices soar as exports from Iran plunge before new sanctions
• Gold prices mark time after tepid rebound to retest former support level
• API inventory report on tap, Fed Chair Powell to speak at NABE event
Crude oil prices surged after Bloomberg reported tanker tracking data showing exports from Iran fell to a 2.5-year low at 1.72 million barrels in September. This is before the looming re-imposition of US sanctions, which follows the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from a nuclear disarmament accord with Tehran agreed to by former President Barack Obama. Gold prices marked time after Friday’s upswing.
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7 years 6 months ago #11792
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 OKTOBER 2018
• Gold prices soar but easing Italian budget fears may cap further gains
• Crude oil prices mark time at key resistance after Iran-linked upswing
• EIA inventory data may pass quietly if outcome echoes API projection
Gold prices surged as turmoil in Italy soured risk appetite, weighing on bond yields and boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. The markets scrambled after Italian lower house budget committee head Claudio Borghi said Rome could solve its fiscal problems if it were to have its own currency. Crude oil prices languished in digestion mode after yesterday’s fireworks.
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• Gold prices soar but easing Italian budget fears may cap further gains
• Crude oil prices mark time at key resistance after Iran-linked upswing
• EIA inventory data may pass quietly if outcome echoes API projection
Gold prices surged as turmoil in Italy soured risk appetite, weighing on bond yields and boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. The markets scrambled after Italian lower house budget committee head Claudio Borghi said Rome could solve its fiscal problems if it were to have its own currency. Crude oil prices languished in digestion mode after yesterday’s fireworks.
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7 years 6 months ago #11795
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 4 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 OKTOBER 2018
• Yen, Franc rise as hawkish Fed outlook shift spooks financial markets
• Rising borrowing costs may expose pockets of QE-linked malinvestment
• Stock index futures hint risk-off mood to persist in European, US trade
The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed while commodity FX – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – followed shares lower as swelling Fed rate hike expectations soured sentiment in Asia Pacific trade. The 2019 tightening path implied in Fed Funds futures steeped by the most in three weeks to register at its most hawkish in almost three years.
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• Yen, Franc rise as hawkish Fed outlook shift spooks financial markets
• Rising borrowing costs may expose pockets of QE-linked malinvestment
• Stock index futures hint risk-off mood to persist in European, US trade
The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed while commodity FX – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – followed shares lower as swelling Fed rate hike expectations soured sentiment in Asia Pacific trade. The 2019 tightening path implied in Fed Funds futures steeped by the most in three weeks to register at its most hawkish in almost three years.
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7 years 6 months ago #11796
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 5 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 OKTOBER 2018
• Yen up, Aussie and NZ Dollars down amid risk aversion in APAC trade
• British Pound higher after EU officials signal Brexit deal is “very close”
• US Dollar may continue to build higher after September’s jobs report
The anti-risk Japanese Yen edged up while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded broadly lower as markets remained in a dour mood in Asia Pacific trade. As with yesterday’s session, worries about the pace of Fed tightening seemed to be at the forefront. To that end, the US Dollar understandably advanced against almost all of its major counterparts.
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• Yen up, Aussie and NZ Dollars down amid risk aversion in APAC trade
• British Pound higher after EU officials signal Brexit deal is “very close”
• US Dollar may continue to build higher after September’s jobs report
The anti-risk Japanese Yen edged up while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded broadly lower as markets remained in a dour mood in Asia Pacific trade. As with yesterday’s session, worries about the pace of Fed tightening seemed to be at the forefront. To that end, the US Dollar understandably advanced against almost all of its major counterparts.
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7 years 6 months ago #11797
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 OKTOBER 2018
• Canadian Dollar broadly lower, echoing crude oil price pullback
• Yen down, Aussie Dollar up as markets digest Friday’s volatility
• British Pound backtracking after soaring on Brexit deal optimism
The Canadian Dollar underperformed in an otherwise quiet start to the trading week for G10 FX currencies. The moves seems to echo the recent pullback in oil prices. Crude is an important part of the Canada’s export mix and weakness there can be seen as a headwind for overall growth, which can be extrapolated to bets on lower inflationary pressure and thereby a more timid view of BOC rate hike prospects.
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• Canadian Dollar broadly lower, echoing crude oil price pullback
• Yen down, Aussie Dollar up as markets digest Friday’s volatility
• British Pound backtracking after soaring on Brexit deal optimism
The Canadian Dollar underperformed in an otherwise quiet start to the trading week for G10 FX currencies. The moves seems to echo the recent pullback in oil prices. Crude is an important part of the Canada’s export mix and weakness there can be seen as a headwind for overall growth, which can be extrapolated to bets on lower inflationary pressure and thereby a more timid view of BOC rate hike prospects.
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7 years 6 months ago #11798
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 OKTOBER 2018
• Yen up, Euro and NZ Dollar down as market sentiment sours anew
• Italian budget woes, gloomy IMF, deepening US/China row in focus
• US Dollar gains as 10-year Treasury bond yields hit nine-year high
A sour mood looks to be prevailing across financial markets as Asia Pacific bourses hand off the baton to Europe. Most regional stocks declined after the IMF cut its global growth outlook for the first time in two years and Italy re-emerged as a worry for financial markets.
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• Yen up, Euro and NZ Dollar down as market sentiment sours anew
• Italian budget woes, gloomy IMF, deepening US/China row in focus
• US Dollar gains as 10-year Treasury bond yields hit nine-year high
A sour mood looks to be prevailing across financial markets as Asia Pacific bourses hand off the baton to Europe. Most regional stocks declined after the IMF cut its global growth outlook for the first time in two years and Italy re-emerged as a worry for financial markets.
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7 years 6 months ago #11799
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 OKTOBER 2018
• US Dollar rally may resume as Fed rate hike bets firm after inflation data
• PPI statistics might set the tone, higher-profile CPI report due Thursday
• British Pound could rise as EU’s Barnier stokes hopes for Brexit accord
The US Dollar pulled back alongside the anti-risk Japanese Yen while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded broadly higher Asia Pacific trade. The move seems corrective following last week’s trend-defining upshift in Fed rate hike bets, reflecting protective pre-positioning before incoming US inflation data.
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• US Dollar rally may resume as Fed rate hike bets firm after inflation data
• PPI statistics might set the tone, higher-profile CPI report due Thursday
• British Pound could rise as EU’s Barnier stokes hopes for Brexit accord
The US Dollar pulled back alongside the anti-risk Japanese Yen while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded broadly higher Asia Pacific trade. The move seems corrective following last week’s trend-defining upshift in Fed rate hike bets, reflecting protective pre-positioning before incoming US inflation data.
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7 years 6 months ago #11800
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 OKTOBER 2018
• US Dollar may be back on offense following CPI inflation figures
• Euro, Pound rise on Brexit deal hopes but follow-through suspect
• Yen poised to extend gains as Aussie and NZ Dollars suffer anew
The US Dollar traded broadly lower in Asia Pacific trade. The Euro and British Pound extended yesterday’s advance as regional investors took their turn to react to firming hopes for an imminent Brexit deal. The anti-risk Japanese Yen remained well-supported as APAC bourses sank, picking up on a dismal lead from Wall Street. Meanwhile, commodity bloc currencies cautiously retraced earlier losses.
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• US Dollar may be back on offense following CPI inflation figures
• Euro, Pound rise on Brexit deal hopes but follow-through suspect
• Yen poised to extend gains as Aussie and NZ Dollars suffer anew
The US Dollar traded broadly lower in Asia Pacific trade. The Euro and British Pound extended yesterday’s advance as regional investors took their turn to react to firming hopes for an imminent Brexit deal. The anti-risk Japanese Yen remained well-supported as APAC bourses sank, picking up on a dismal lead from Wall Street. Meanwhile, commodity bloc currencies cautiously retraced earlier losses.
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7 years 6 months ago #11801
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 12 Oktober 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 OKTOBER 2018
• EURUSD trades either side of 1.1600 but the market is struggling to push higher.
• Italian fiscal outline agreed and will be presented to the EU Commission next week.
EURUSDhas nudged back above 1.1600 in early trade but is finding it difficult to keep this level despite a currently weak US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) remains around 94.60, two-points lower than its recent 16-month high of 96.60 made on August 15, despite expectations of further interest-rate hikes ahead.
Rest van het artikel
• EURUSD trades either side of 1.1600 but the market is struggling to push higher.
• Italian fiscal outline agreed and will be presented to the EU Commission next week.
EURUSDhas nudged back above 1.1600 in early trade but is finding it difficult to keep this level despite a currently weak US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) remains around 94.60, two-points lower than its recent 16-month high of 96.60 made on August 15, despite expectations of further interest-rate hikes ahead.
Rest van het artikel
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