Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 MAART 2018

- The European Commission’s business climate index fell in March to a lower-than-expected 1.34.
- Indicators for economic, industrial, and services confidence also missed their predicted levels.
- EURUSD weakened in response.

Euro-Zone sentiment worsened this month, according to data from the European Commission. Economic, industrial and services confidence all came in down from February and below predicted levels, while consumer confidence was unchanged. The business climate in the area worsened too, coming in at 1.34, below both February’s 1.48 and the forecast 1.36.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 MAART 2018

- Bitcoin descending triangle may produce a sharp reaction.
- Cryptocurrency market remains weak with good news scarce.

Bitcoin remains below the down channel started from the December 17 high near $20,000 as investors continue to shun the cryptocurrency market in 2018. And BTC is also facing an inflection point as the upward channel from the February 6 low near $6,000 converges with the downward channel, normally the sign of an upcoming breakout, traditionally to the downside.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 MAART 2018

- U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to Uptick to Annualized 1.6% in February. Personal Income to Increase 0.4% During the Same Period.
- EUR/USD Fails to Retain Bullish Sequence. March Range in Focus Following Failed Attempt to Test 2018-High (1.2556).

Data prints pointing to faster price growth may spark a bullish reaction in the greenback as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the comings months, and the central bank may adopt a more hawking tone at the next meeting on May 2 as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.’

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 MAART 2018

• Japanese Yen continues to rise in thin, pre-holiday trade
• Key European bourses to stay shuttered through Monday
• OTC spot FX may foreshadow post-lull moves elsewhere

The Japanese Yen rose in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The move built upon gains in the prior session, which took the currency higher against all of its G10 FX counterparts. Absent a clear-cut catalyst, the move may reflect markets on auto-pilot as liquidity thins into Good Friday holiday closures.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 APRIL 2018

- Traders continue to shun riskier assets like stocks as the US and China escalate their trade war.
- Sentiment is also hit by continuing doubts about US technology shares.

Market sentiment continues to be hit by concerns about an escalating trade war between the US and China and by continuing weakness in US technology stocks. In the latest development, China has increased tariffs by up to 25% on 128 US products including frozen pork, wine, fruits and nuts, escalating its dispute with the US after the US imposed duties on imports of Chinese aluminum and steel.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 APRIL 2018

- Ripple’s bounce of its $0.45 weekend low lacks conviction.
- XRP needs some fundamental good news if it is to break higher.

Ripple’s brief rally from its weekend low at $0.45 looks over in the short-term with the coin struggling to push higher in a weak cryptocurrency market. The overall crypto market capitalization currently stands at $267 billion, sharply lower from the $830 billion high seen on January 7 this year.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 APRIL 2018

• Canadian Dollar implied volatility is amongst the most elevated of its major peers
• Prices could be vulnerable to ongoing NAFTA talks and incoming local jobs data
• USD/CAD could be at risk of further losses after confirmation of a

Canadian Dollar 1-day implied volatility is not only the most elevated of the majors at 12.45%, but also it is around a one-month high. The similar one-week measurement is also amongst the largest of its major counterparts and sits just above a two-week high. What might explain these market expectations? Perhaps political risk and incoming economic data.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 APRIL 2018

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Climb 185K in March, Unemployment Rate to Downtick to Annualized 4.0% from 4.1%.
- Average Hourly Earnings to Increase to 2.7% per Annum from 2.6% in February. Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Endorse Four Rate-Hikes for 2018?

A 185K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by signs of faster wage growth may keep EUR/USD under pressure as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 APRIL 2018

- Bitcoin back above $7,000 on a lack of any negative news flow.
- A break and close above the December down channel may support the coin in the short-term.

A lack of negatives has given Bitcoin a positive push, with BTC trading 7%-8% higher than its low print late Friday. No real good or bad news out over the weekend has allowed buyers to get the upper hand in early European trade with the down channel from the December 17 high print the first target.


Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 APRIL 2018

- Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be de-escalating trade tensions between China and the US.
- That has lifted the prices of “risk assets” but the gains could well be temporary.

A pledge by Chinese President Xi Jinping to lower import tariffs on products such as autos has prompted traders to take on more risk, benefiting assets like stocks and the Australian Dollar to the detriment of safe havens such as the Japanese Yen.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 APRIL 2018

• Sterling falls through 1.4200 after soft production figures, construction output drop
• UK trade deficit widens due to decline in non-EU goods exports
• Eyes on BoE speech with Governor Carney and Broadbent set to speak tomorrow

The Pound slipped and FTSE 100 edged up Wednesday morning following a run of February data. In the three months to February, the total UK trade deficit (goods and services) had widened by £0.4bln to £6.4bln, which was largely been due to the £2.1bln decline in non-EU goods exports.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 APRIL 2018

- Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speech about the euro-zone currency union may well spark a bid for the single currency.
- EURUSD may be the best pair for euro bulls if US President Trump keeps to his word on Syria.

The recent move higher in EURUSD may well continue over the next couple of days if Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann keeps to his well-documented hawkish stance when he speaks later in the session on the euro-zone currency union.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 APRIL 2018

• Gold continues to struggle around the 2013 trend-line
• Silver remains the laggard, resistance keeps a lid on it

The theme of gold strength only lasting a day or two above the 2013 trend-line continues to remain in place, with Wednesday’s spike to the top of the trading range finding strong opposition. Yesterday’s decline has gold back below the long-term trend-line, and unless it can rally a solid 1%+ from current levels to finish out the week above the threshold, an upward bias will be kept in check heading into next week.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 APRIL 2018

• Large speculators remain very long both the euro and crude oil
• Japanese yen large speculators may be on to new trend
• Large spec profile updates for major currencies/markets

The report posted on Friday did not show any significant one-week changes, but there are still notable positions in a few key markets to keep an eye on as time progresses. We have been watching the extremes in the euro and crude oil for a while now, however, they have meant little from an overbought standpoint, but remain worth keeping in mind in the event we do see a turnaround in price.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 APRIL 2018

- EURGBP pulls back marginally after hitting an eleven-month low.
- UK and EZ inflation data will be closely eyed on Wednesday.

Business sentiment in Germany fell sharply, ZEW data showed Tuesday, while Euro-Zone economic sentiment hit a five-and-a-half year low as the ongoing international trade dispute and the latest actions in Syria weighed on businesses. The single currency however shrugged off the double dose off bad news and moved back off its 11 month low against GBP of 0.86257, albeit marginally.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 APRIL 2018

- Bank of Canada (BoC) to Hold Benchmark Interest Rate at 1.25% in April. Will Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. Stick to the Current Script Amid Above-Target Inflation?
- USD/CAD Slips to Fresh Monthly-Low (1.2527), Bearish RSI Formation Remains Intact Ahead of BoC Meeting.

The BoC may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks,’ and the central bank may offer little guidance on the timing of the next rate-hike amid ‘heightened uncertainty about future US trade policies, changes in inflation dynamics, wage behaviour and the impact of interest rates on the economy, given high levels of household debt.’

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 APRIL 2018

- US Short-term interest rates will support the greenback
- EURUSD under pressure as inflation in the Euro-Zone remains elusive.

The EURUSD pair is coming under pressure as US short-term interest rates continue to move higher ahead of further US rate hikes. The closely watched US 2-year is currently quoted with a yield of 2.428%, up from 1.18% one year ago. In contrast the Euro-Zone short-term benchmark, The German 2-year, currently trades at -0.55%, a near 300 basis point differential with its US counterpart, highlighting the difference in monetary policy between the two areas.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 APRIL 2018

- Ripple benefits from Binance news
- Congestion ahead but further gains look likely.

News from one of the world’s largest crypto-exchanges that it plans to allow customers to buy some tokens directly with fiat currencies sent Ripple surging overnight. Currently customers have to use either Bitcoin or Ethereum to but other cryptocurrencies on the exchange, or use Tether (USDT), they will soon have the option to use US dollars, easing the path for investors to buy a range of cryptocurrencies. Customers will also be able to sell cryptocurrencies directly back into US dollars.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 APRIL 2018

- The Euro trade-weighted index remains up by over +9% year-over-year, a point of interest for the ECB when it meets this week.

- The week ahead sees a lighter Eurozone economic calendar aside from the ECB meeting, meaning the news wire will remain the focal point for price action.

The Euro slipped back at the end of last week versus the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar as risk assets turned over, boosting demand for the safe haven currencies. Higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets suffered, with pairs like EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, and EUR/CAD closing the week near their highs. But after another quiet economic calendar that left the Euro at the whims of the other major currencies, the forthcoming ECB meeting should put the Euro back in the driver’s seat.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 APRIL 2018

• Yen may extend decline as market-wide risk appetite improves
• Kiwi Dollar down as RBNZ rate hike expectations deteriorate
• Euro may not find strong motivation in German IFO statistics

The anti-risk Yen suffered as risk appetite swelled in Asia Pacific trade, with bourses in Japan, Australia and China posting confident gains. The New Zealand Dollar underperformed however, sinking alongside local bond yields. The move speaks to ebbing RBNZ rate hike prospects but a clear-cut catalyst for the shift in baseline policy bets is not readily apparent. Tightening is not priced in until mid-2019.

Rest van het artikel