Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 JANUARI 2018

- GBP/USD hits a one-week low, and trades back below 1.4000, as a combination of Sterling profit taking, political bickering and a resurgent US dollar weigh on the pair.
- BoE governor Mark Carney will appear before the House of Lords Committee this morning while US President Trump will give his first State of the Union speech much later in the day.

A period of consolidation, and profit-taking for the British Pound after having hit a post-Brexit high of 1.43450 last week against the greenback. The pair currently trade either side of 1.4000 as the US dollar bounces back from levels last seen four years ago, driven primarily by a slightly more conciliatory tone adopted by US President Trump last week in Davos.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 JANUARI 2018

- EURUSD continues to rise as the Euro-Zone economy steams ahead even though inflation remains subdued.
- ECB must decide whether to tighten monetary policy to cool the economy or leave it loose to stimulate consumer price rises.

The Euro remains in demand as the European Central Bank continues to face a difficult question: whether to tighten monetary policy to cool a buoyant economy or to keep policy loose while inflation stays under its target of below but close to 2%.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 FEBRUARI 2018

• Australian Dollar sinks on disappointing economic data, political jitters
• Japanese Yen down as Asia Pacific stocks bounce after 3 days of losses
• US Dollar attempting recovery but soft ISM result might cool momentum

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling against all of its major counterparts. The selloff began with deeply disappointing building permits data, then followed further fuel in RBA statistics showing the price of Australia’s exports on global markets fell for a third consecutive month in January.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 FEBRUARI 2018

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 180K in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings to. Climb to Annualized 2.6% from 2.5% in December.

A 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) paired with an uptick in Average Hourly Earnings may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 FEBRUARI 2018

• Crude oil prices edge down as upbeat jobs data boosts the US Dollar
• Gold prices break another layer of support, vulnerable to deeper losses

January’s US jobs report proved to be formative for commodities prices last week. The US Dollar soared after the upbeat results crossed the wires. That understandably sent gold prices lower as the benchmark currency’s gains undermined the appeal of alternatives to fiat. Crude oil prices likewise fell, succumbing to de-facto pressure from a stronger greenback.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 FEBRUARI 2018

- Cryptocurrency losses extend the recent ‘lower high’ trend, sending prices spiraling lower.
- Technical chart indicator shows BTC, ETH and XRP are all heavily oversold.

The heavy sell-off in the cryptocurrency market continues, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off the market capitalization. As we have underlined in the past two weeks, continued negative news flow – and a lack of any positive impulses – has rattled investors and sent them running to the exit. In addition the lack of any strong technical support levels of note have left traders at the mercy of aggressive sellers, especially when the market continues to be heavily overbought.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 FEBRUARI 2018

• Yen, commodity bloc FX correct after yesterday’s risk appetite recovery
• S&P 500 futures hint risk-off trade might resume but caution warranted
• Sentiment may firm if Fed officials hint market woes to delay rate hikes

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars turned lower in Asia Pacific trade while the Japanese Yen advanced. The move appeared corrective, marking retracements of earlier price action seen against a backdrop of recovering risk appetite on Wall Street. The Kiwi led the way lower having scored outsized gains courtesy of better-than-expected labor market data published late yesterday.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 FEBRUARI 2018

- The Bank of England’s rate-setting monetary policy committee will leave all its policy settings unchanged Thursday.
- However, Governor Mark Carney may take a more dovish line than expected, putting downward pressure on the British Pound.

The Bank of England will leave all its monetary policy settings unchanged Thursday. However, the meeting of its rate-setting monetary policy committee could still provide a trading opportunity as both the bank’s quarterly Inflation Report and comments by Governor Mark Carney could lead to volatility in GBPUSD and other Pound crosses.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 FEBRUARI 2018

- UK data provide no further clues for GBP traders
- Brexit headwinds will keep GBP in check – all eyes on March 22/23.

Growth in UK manufacturing remains solid but unspectacular, according to the latest government figures as the UK currency now turns its attention back to the ongoing Brexit talks, consigning Thursday’s hawkish BoE meeting to the past.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 FEBRUARI 2018

- Bitcoin may push back to $10,000 if resistance fails.
- Ethereum needs a push, Ripple builds on support.

After a few days of trading within a narrow range, the latest Bitcoin chart may see the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization test $10,000 of more, but an upcoming resistance zone needs to be broken to confirm higher prices. BTC currently trades at the top-side of an ascending triangle and above the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level ($8,523) and a breakout would see the digital coin target the $9,300 - $9,900 resistance zone.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 FEBRUARI 2018

- UK inflation stayed at 3.0% in January rather than easing to 2.9% as analysts had forecast.
- That makes a UK rate rise in May even more likely and the Pound was firmer as a result.

UK inflation remained at 3.0% in January, unchanged from the previous month and defying expectations of a fall to 2.9%. That makes an increase in UK interest rates in May more likely and the Pound firmed modestly in response.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 FEBRUARI 2018

- The cryptocurrency market continues to steadily re-coup recent losses.
- Bitcoin’s technical set-up paves the way for the market heavyweight to push higher.

The market pullback from the recent lows of February 6 is characterized by a steady uptrend with little wild volatility associated with the space. All digital coins are higher in healthy turnover with any set-backs seemingly being used by traders to enter into new, or additional, long positions.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 FEBRUARI 2018

- Bitcoin continues its rally from its recent $6,000 low with ‘higher lows’ dominating the chart.
- A break and close above the first resistance zone should see BTC trade near $11,000 in the short-term.

Bitcoin continues its slow grind higher and is currently trading at the top of a noted resistance zone, made up of half-a-dozen lows and highs over the last month. The chart set-up continues to point to higher prices with nine ‘higher lows’ seen in the last ten trading sessions.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 FEBRUARI 2018

• Gold and crude oil prices continue higher as US CPI impact lingers
• Commodities may edge lower on profit-taking ahead of the weekend

Commodities continued to rise as expected, reveling in US Dollar weakness triggered following Wednesday’s underwhelming US CPI data. Gold prices capitalized as the greenback’s weakness bolstered the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. Meanwhile, crude oil prices enjoyed a de-facto lift because they are denominated in terms of the benchmark currency on global markets.Firming risk appetite seemingly helped as well.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 FEBRUARI 2018

• Crude oil prices back on the upswing, aiming to probe near $64/bbl
• Gold prices rejected at chart resistance but may resume upward push

Crude oil prices echoed broad-based risk sentiment trends on Friday, oscillating in moves that mirrored the benchmark S&P 500 stock index and ultimately finishing the day little-changed. Gold prices corrected lower as the US Dollar rebounded, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 FEBRUARI 2018

- The FOMC meeting minutes tend to be market moving, but this instance is unique insofar as it was the last meeting under Fed Chair Janet Yellen; the voting composition will be very different moving forward.

- Attention will be on BOE policymakers in the coming days as the odds of a May rate hike have moved above 60%, per overnight index swaps.

- Retail trader positioning remains mixed as measures of volatility remain elevated after the early-February surge.

Traders should turn their attention to the group of Bank of England policymakers speaking this week given recent inflation and labor market data. Despite weakness on headline GDP (due out later in the week at +1.5% annualized), price pressures remain stubbornly high and real disposable income remains under pressure.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 FEBRUARI 2018

• Gold prices fall with minutes from January’s FOMC meeting in focus
• Crude oil prices echo stronger US Dollar, downturn in risk sentiment

Gold prices turned sharply lower as the US Dollar returned to the offensive, undermining the appeal of the standby anti-fiat alternative. The move probably reflects pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of minutes from January’s FOMC meeting.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYE 22 FEBRUARI 2018

Bitcoin & Ethereum Charts May Have Just Posted Ominous Lower-highs

Crypto-mania appears set to unwind once again. The other day we were noting that if Ethereum soon turns swiftly lower it could mark the 3rd peak of a topping pattern with potential of more than halving its price. While the price sequence isn’t as decisive for Bitcoin, sellers were found in an area we were looking to as a potentially big turning point.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 FEBRUARI 2018

- Bitcoin sell-off nears robust support zone. Failure to hold will see losses deepen.
- Recent down-trend line respected so far.

The latest cryptocurrency sell-off has seen Bitcoin give back its recent pull-back gains and enter a resistance zone which needs to hold if further short-term gains are to be made. After making a series of bullish positive ‘higher lows’ in the last two weeks, BTC has reversed and is currently making its forth ‘lower high’ in a row, a bearish market indicator.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 FEBRUARI 2018

• Gold prices rise as investors prepare to hear from Fed Chair Powell
• Crude oil prices attempting to expose January swing top for a retest

Gold prices are on the upswing at the start of the trading week as the US Dollar finds itself on the defensive once again, offering support to the standby anti-fiat alternative. The greenback’s slide is tracking a flattening of the priced-in rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures, hinting that moderation after last week’s surge in tightening bets as the catalyst behind price action.

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