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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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7 years 9 months ago #11689
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 JULI 2018
Updates to Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may undermine the recent strength in USD/CAD as the headline reading for inflation is expected to uptick to 2.3% from 2.2% in May.
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2018 as the ‘Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz & Co. may continue to strike a hawkish tone at the next meeting on September 5 as ‘CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity.
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Updates to Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may undermine the recent strength in USD/CAD as the headline reading for inflation is expected to uptick to 2.3% from 2.2% in May.
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2018 as the ‘Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz & Co. may continue to strike a hawkish tone at the next meeting on September 5 as ‘CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity.
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7 years 8 months ago #11690
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 23 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 JULI 2018
• Yen gains amid risk aversion after inconclusive G20 summit
• US Dollar lower as APAC markets digest Trump jawboning
• Stock index futures hint risk-off mood likely to carry forward
The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed in Asia Pacific trade as most regional markets traded lower following a disappointing G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend. The gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors highlighted a familiar list of grievances – from swelling trade war tensions to building financial pressure on emerging markets – but offered no clear path toward their resolution.
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• Yen gains amid risk aversion after inconclusive G20 summit
• US Dollar lower as APAC markets digest Trump jawboning
• Stock index futures hint risk-off mood likely to carry forward
The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed in Asia Pacific trade as most regional markets traded lower following a disappointing G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend. The gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors highlighted a familiar list of grievances – from swelling trade war tensions to building financial pressure on emerging markets – but offered no clear path toward their resolution.
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7 years 8 months ago #11693
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 JULI 2018
• Gold Price Downtrend intact for now amid USD Lift
• Record Short Positioning Suggests Potential Corrective Move Higher
Gold bears have continued to remain in control, which has largely correlated with the strength in the Dollar, having been supported by a lift in US yields as of late. Alongside this, as long as gold prices stay below $1230, selling interest remains prominent. However, given the recent sell-off the conviction by bearish investors has eased. Nonetheless, a break below the YTD low ($1211.50) and test for $1204 is still on the cards with the USD potentially set to get a boost in the run to the US GDP report, which is touted to be a big beat.
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• Gold Price Downtrend intact for now amid USD Lift
• Record Short Positioning Suggests Potential Corrective Move Higher
Gold bears have continued to remain in control, which has largely correlated with the strength in the Dollar, having been supported by a lift in US yields as of late. Alongside this, as long as gold prices stay below $1230, selling interest remains prominent. However, given the recent sell-off the conviction by bearish investors has eased. Nonetheless, a break below the YTD low ($1211.50) and test for $1204 is still on the cards with the USD potentially set to get a boost in the run to the US GDP report, which is touted to be a big beat.
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7 years 8 months ago #11694
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 JULI 2018
• US Dollar may rise as Trump, Junker reach deal on auto import tariffs
• Japanese Yen at risk as easing trade war worries bolster risk appetite
• Australian Dollar lower as soft CPI data weighs on RBA rates outlook
A dull offering of European and US economic data is likely to see currency markets focused on a meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker. The European Commission president arrives stateside on a mission to dissuade the White House from moving forward with an increase in tariffs on auto imports. Motor vehicles are a leading export commodity and the US is the biggest overseas market for the EU.
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• US Dollar may rise as Trump, Junker reach deal on auto import tariffs
• Japanese Yen at risk as easing trade war worries bolster risk appetite
• Australian Dollar lower as soft CPI data weighs on RBA rates outlook
A dull offering of European and US economic data is likely to see currency markets focused on a meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker. The European Commission president arrives stateside on a mission to dissuade the White House from moving forward with an increase in tariffs on auto imports. Motor vehicles are a leading export commodity and the US is the biggest overseas market for the EU.
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7 years 8 months ago #11695
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 JULI 2018
• Euro may fall as ECB’s Draghi strikes dovish tone on rate hike timing
• Japanese Yen up, Aussie Dollar down on risk aversion in APAC trade
• Chinese stocks swoon as EU, US deal weakens Beijing in trade wars
All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European trade. No changes are expected after QE asset purchases were put on autopilot through year-end at last month’s conclave. Traders will closely parse comments from President Mario Draghi for clues on the timing of subsequent rates hikes however.
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• Euro may fall as ECB’s Draghi strikes dovish tone on rate hike timing
• Japanese Yen up, Aussie Dollar down on risk aversion in APAC trade
• Chinese stocks swoon as EU, US deal weakens Beijing in trade wars
All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European trade. No changes are expected after QE asset purchases were put on autopilot through year-end at last month’s conclave. Traders will closely parse comments from President Mario Draghi for clues on the timing of subsequent rates hikes however.
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7 years 8 months ago #11696
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 JULI 2018
• US Dollar looking to second-quarter GDP report for direction cues
• Forecasts see strong growth but recent data disappointments a concern
• Yen up as markets ponder policy change at next week’s BOJ meeting
US GDP figures are firmly in focus into the end of the trading week. They are expected to show that the annualized growth rate rose to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. A strong print that boosts bets on a fourth Fed rate hike in 2018 is likely to be supportive for the US Dollar. A disappointment echoing recent deterioration in data outcomes relative to forecasts may send it lower.
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• US Dollar looking to second-quarter GDP report for direction cues
• Forecasts see strong growth but recent data disappointments a concern
• Yen up as markets ponder policy change at next week’s BOJ meeting
US GDP figures are firmly in focus into the end of the trading week. They are expected to show that the annualized growth rate rose to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. A strong print that boosts bets on a fourth Fed rate hike in 2018 is likely to be supportive for the US Dollar. A disappointment echoing recent deterioration in data outcomes relative to forecasts may send it lower.
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7 years 8 months ago #11697
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 30 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 JULI 2018
• Euro unlikely to find follow-through after German CPI data
• Major currencies mark time as markets brace for busy week
• Policy decisions from the Fed, BOJ and BOE in focus ahead
German CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 2.1 percent in July, unchanged from the prior month. Regional price growth data has deteriorated relative to forecasts in recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise.
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• Euro unlikely to find follow-through after German CPI data
• Major currencies mark time as markets brace for busy week
• Policy decisions from the Fed, BOJ and BOE in focus ahead
German CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 2.1 percent in July, unchanged from the prior month. Regional price growth data has deteriorated relative to forecasts in recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise.
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7 years 8 months ago #11699
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Juli 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 JULI 2018
• Euro unlikely to find lasting catalysts in regional CPI, GDP data
• US Dollar may look past PCE report as Fed rate decision nears
• Yen lower after BOJ, Canadian Dollar down on NAFTA deadlock
Eurozone CPI and GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to hold steady at 2 percent on-year in July. Meanwhile, output growth is seen slowing from 2.5 to 2.2 percent in the second quarter, the weakest in over a year.
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• Euro unlikely to find lasting catalysts in regional CPI, GDP data
• US Dollar may look past PCE report as Fed rate decision nears
• Yen lower after BOJ, Canadian Dollar down on NAFTA deadlock
Eurozone CPI and GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to hold steady at 2 percent on-year in July. Meanwhile, output growth is seen slowing from 2.5 to 2.2 percent in the second quarter, the weakest in over a year.
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7 years 8 months ago #11701
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Aug 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 AUGUSTUS 2018
• US Dollar may resume uptrend on hawkish FOMC policy statement
• Treasury deficit-financing plans might compound upswing in yields
• New Zealand Dollar falls as soft jobs data weighs on RBNZ outlook
A smattering of European economic data is unlikely to inspire much of a response from financial markets as all eyes look ahead to the FOMC monetary policy decision. A rate hike is not expected but Chair Powell and company may dial up hawkish rhetoric to assert their independence after President Trump talked down tightening efforts recently.
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• US Dollar may resume uptrend on hawkish FOMC policy statement
• Treasury deficit-financing plans might compound upswing in yields
• New Zealand Dollar falls as soft jobs data weighs on RBNZ outlook
A smattering of European economic data is unlikely to inspire much of a response from financial markets as all eyes look ahead to the FOMC monetary policy decision. A rate hike is not expected but Chair Powell and company may dial up hawkish rhetoric to assert their independence after President Trump talked down tightening efforts recently.
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7 years 8 months ago #11702
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 AUGUSTUS 2018
• British Pound may rise as BOE rhetoric takes a hawkish turn
• Yen up, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars down amid trade war jitters
• FTSE 100, S&P 500 futures hint risk-off trade set to continue
All eyes are on the Bank of England in European trading hours as traders brace for the “Super Thursday” monetary policy extravaganza. Officials are set to deliver a rate hike and offer updated forward guidance via the quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). Minutes from the meeting of the policy-setting MPC committee and a press conference with Governor Mark Carney are also on tap.
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• British Pound may rise as BOE rhetoric takes a hawkish turn
• Yen up, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars down amid trade war jitters
• FTSE 100, S&P 500 futures hint risk-off trade set to continue
All eyes are on the Bank of England in European trading hours as traders brace for the “Super Thursday” monetary policy extravaganza. Officials are set to deliver a rate hike and offer updated forward guidance via the quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). Minutes from the meeting of the policy-setting MPC committee and a press conference with Governor Mark Carney are also on tap.
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7 years 8 months ago #11705
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Euro, British Pound unlikely to find catalysts in PMI roundup
• US Dollar may rise as jobs data boosts Fed rate hike prospects
• NZ Dollar falls as RBNZ outlook shrivels, Aussie Dollar higher
A steady stream of PMI surveys are unlikely to inspire significant reactions from the Euro and the British Poundconsidering their limited implications for near-term ECB and BOE policy implications. The former central bank appears to be on auto-pilot at least through year-end while the latter signaled just yesterday that its responsiveness to incoming economic data has been tempered by Brexit-linked uncertainty.
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• Euro, British Pound unlikely to find catalysts in PMI roundup
• US Dollar may rise as jobs data boosts Fed rate hike prospects
• NZ Dollar falls as RBNZ outlook shrivels, Aussie Dollar higher
A steady stream of PMI surveys are unlikely to inspire significant reactions from the Euro and the British Poundconsidering their limited implications for near-term ECB and BOE policy implications. The former central bank appears to be on auto-pilot at least through year-end while the latter signaled just yesterday that its responsiveness to incoming economic data has been tempered by Brexit-linked uncertainty.
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7 years 8 months ago #11709
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 6 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Yen, Franc vulnerable as risk appetite swells around financial markets
• US Dollar may rise as yield-seeking flows eye Fed vs. G10 divergence
• Australian Dollar cautiously lower before RBA policy announcement
A lackluster offering of US and European economic data offers few obvious catalysts for financial markets as the trading week gets underway. That may open the door for sentiment trends to take the lead. Asia Pacific shares rose – echoing gains on Wall Street Friday – and positive cues in futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 hint at more of the same ahead.
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• Yen, Franc vulnerable as risk appetite swells around financial markets
• US Dollar may rise as yield-seeking flows eye Fed vs. G10 divergence
• Australian Dollar cautiously lower before RBA policy announcement
A lackluster offering of US and European economic data offers few obvious catalysts for financial markets as the trading week gets underway. That may open the door for sentiment trends to take the lead. Asia Pacific shares rose – echoing gains on Wall Street Friday – and positive cues in futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 hint at more of the same ahead.
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7 years 8 months ago #11710
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Asian equities mostly gained Tuesday
• The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates alone at record lows, again
• The US Dollar was broadly steady but rose against the British Pound
Asian stocks managed gains for the most part on Tuesday. There were no new headlines from the trade spat between China and the US to cloud sentiment and buyers seem to have taken advantage of this to track US mainboards higher.
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• Asian equities mostly gained Tuesday
• The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates alone at record lows, again
• The US Dollar was broadly steady but rose against the British Pound
Asian stocks managed gains for the most part on Tuesday. There were no new headlines from the trade spat between China and the US to cloud sentiment and buyers seem to have taken advantage of this to track US mainboards higher.
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7 years 8 months ago #11711
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Currency markets left looking to conflicted sentiment trends for direction
• Sensitivity to headline risk may be elevated, trade war narrative in focus
• Hawkish Fed-speak might boost rate hike outlook, drive US Dollar higher
An empty economic calendar in European trading hours leaves markets with relatively little besides risk appetite trends to direct near-term price action. Where sentiment might lead is itself clouded however, with futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 equity benchmarks trading conspicuously flat before markets in London and New York come online.
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• Currency markets left looking to conflicted sentiment trends for direction
• Sensitivity to headline risk may be elevated, trade war narrative in focus
• Hawkish Fed-speak might boost rate hike outlook, drive US Dollar higher
An empty economic calendar in European trading hours leaves markets with relatively little besides risk appetite trends to direct near-term price action. Where sentiment might lead is itself clouded however, with futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 equity benchmarks trading conspicuously flat before markets in London and New York come online.
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7 years 8 months ago #11712
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Yen may reverse gains as US, Japan strike deal avoiding auto tariffs
• Aussie Dollar, Chinese stocks up after record-setting US bond sale
• NZ Dollar down as RBNZ pushes out interest rate hike bets to 2020
The anti-risk Yen also rose as automakers led Japanese stocks lower in Asia Pacific trade, spooked by the prospect of US auto tariffs as negotiators from the two countries meet for talks. While trade war fears have focused on China, a rift between Washington and Tokyo may emerge as another critical flashpoint.
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• Yen may reverse gains as US, Japan strike deal avoiding auto tariffs
• Aussie Dollar, Chinese stocks up after record-setting US bond sale
• NZ Dollar down as RBNZ pushes out interest rate hike bets to 2020
The anti-risk Yen also rose as automakers led Japanese stocks lower in Asia Pacific trade, spooked by the prospect of US auto tariffs as negotiators from the two countries meet for talks. While trade war fears have focused on China, a rift between Washington and Tokyo may emerge as another critical flashpoint.
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7 years 8 months ago #11713
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 AUGUSTUS 2018
• The Euro was pressured against a generally stronger US Dollar
• Turkey’s woes may well have been responsible
• There are mounting concerns about European bank exposure to the troubled country
The Euro wilted quite sharply as Asian trade faded out on Friday, with worries about Turkey widely reported to be behind the move. The Turkish Lira was hammered this week.USD/TRY has soared and the Lira has lost about 30% of its value against the greenback this year alone. Now it seems that possible contagion to European banks exposed to Turkey is an additional worry for investors.
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• The Euro was pressured against a generally stronger US Dollar
• Turkey’s woes may well have been responsible
• There are mounting concerns about European bank exposure to the troubled country
The Euro wilted quite sharply as Asian trade faded out on Friday, with worries about Turkey widely reported to be behind the move. The Turkish Lira was hammered this week.USD/TRY has soared and the Lira has lost about 30% of its value against the greenback this year alone. Now it seems that possible contagion to European banks exposed to Turkey is an additional worry for investors.
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7 years 8 months ago #11714
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Further EURUSD weakness is expected with prior support now turning to strong resistance.
• USDTRY slips back after trading above 7.20 as Turkey readies plans to restore confidence.
EURUSD continues its journey lower as the Turkish Lira weakens further. Late last week reports showing EU bank exposure to Turkey rattled the single-currency and today’s fall – USDTRY hit a fresh all time low around 7.20 – compounded the problem. The Lira did rebound back below 7.00 after the Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said that the government had a plan to restore calm and that ‘institutions will take the necessary actions as of Monday morning’.
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• Further EURUSD weakness is expected with prior support now turning to strong resistance.
• USDTRY slips back after trading above 7.20 as Turkey readies plans to restore confidence.
EURUSD continues its journey lower as the Turkish Lira weakens further. Late last week reports showing EU bank exposure to Turkey rattled the single-currency and today’s fall – USDTRY hit a fresh all time low around 7.20 – compounded the problem. The Lira did rebound back below 7.00 after the Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said that the government had a plan to restore calm and that ‘institutions will take the necessary actions as of Monday morning’.
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7 years 8 months ago #11715
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Euro to look past German GDP data, may rise as risk appetite firms
• Sentiment might improve further but headline risk remains elevated
• China a notable weak spot in otherwise upbeat Asia Pacific session
German GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Output growth is expected to have accelerated in the second quarter, with an increase of 0.4 percent marking the first pickup in a year. Eurozone news-flow has improved relative to forecasts in recent months, opening the door for an upside surprise. With ECB policy on autopilot however, that may do little for the Euro.
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• Euro to look past German GDP data, may rise as risk appetite firms
• Sentiment might improve further but headline risk remains elevated
• China a notable weak spot in otherwise upbeat Asia Pacific session
German GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Output growth is expected to have accelerated in the second quarter, with an increase of 0.4 percent marking the first pickup in a year. Eurozone news-flow has improved relative to forecasts in recent months, opening the door for an upside surprise. With ECB policy on autopilot however, that may do little for the Euro.
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7 years 8 months ago #11716
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 AUGUSTUS 2018
• US Dollar, Yen rise as market sentiment sours anew in APAC trade
• Aussie and New Zealand Dollars fall alongside stocks, Turkish Lira
• British Pound may overlook UK CPI as BOE eyes Brexit uncertainty
Haven-seeking capital flows buoyed the US Dollar as risk appetite soured anew after yesterday’s tepid recovery in Asia Pacific trade. The perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen was not far behind while the sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars suffered outsized losses.
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• US Dollar, Yen rise as market sentiment sours anew in APAC trade
• Aussie and New Zealand Dollars fall alongside stocks, Turkish Lira
• British Pound may overlook UK CPI as BOE eyes Brexit uncertainty
Haven-seeking capital flows buoyed the US Dollar as risk appetite soured anew after yesterday’s tepid recovery in Asia Pacific trade. The perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen was not far behind while the sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars suffered outsized losses.
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7 years 8 months ago #11717
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 16 Augustus 2018
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 AUGUSTUS 2018
• Yen, Franc and US Dollar drop amid broad sentiment recovery
• Hopes for US, China trade war de-escalation stoking optimism
• Aussie and New Zealand Dollars, Euro emerge as outperformers
The markets’ mood brightened in Asia Pacific trade as traders battered by turmoil in emerging market assets were offered a sliver of hope for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. That came by way of news that the latter country’s Vice Commerce Minister will travel to Washington to meet a high-level delegation for talks in late August.
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• Yen, Franc and US Dollar drop amid broad sentiment recovery
• Hopes for US, China trade war de-escalation stoking optimism
• Aussie and New Zealand Dollars, Euro emerge as outperformers
The markets’ mood brightened in Asia Pacific trade as traders battered by turmoil in emerging market assets were offered a sliver of hope for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. That came by way of news that the latter country’s Vice Commerce Minister will travel to Washington to meet a high-level delegation for talks in late August.
Rest van het artikel
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