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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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9 years 6 months ago #10596
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 OKTOBER 2016
• The FTSE 100 is attempting to break to new highs towards the measured move target of 7185
• Pound weakness acting a strong catalyst for the index
• Channel since the middle of September seen as a good guide for longs
On Wednesday, when we last discussed the FTSE, it had come within less than a point of breaking the April 2015 high at 7122.7. A solid push through this level should see the index on its way to the measured move target we penciled in at ~7185; this target was determined by adding the depth of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern to the price of the neckline.
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• The FTSE 100 is attempting to break to new highs towards the measured move target of 7185
• Pound weakness acting a strong catalyst for the index
• Channel since the middle of September seen as a good guide for longs
On Wednesday, when we last discussed the FTSE, it had come within less than a point of breaking the April 2015 high at 7122.7. A solid push through this level should see the index on its way to the measured move target we penciled in at ~7185; this target was determined by adding the depth of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern to the price of the neckline.
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9 years 6 months ago #10600
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 12 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 OKTOBER 2016
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Voted 7 to 3 to Retain Current Policy in September.
- Will the FOMC Minutes Boost Bets For December Rate-Hike?
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes
Market participants may closely watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes amid the growing dissent within the central bank, but the fresh rhetoric from the 2016-voting members (New York Fed President William Dudley and Kansas City Fed President Esther George) may have a more material impact on the U.S. dollar outlook as the board appears to be following a similar path to 2015.
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- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Voted 7 to 3 to Retain Current Policy in September.
- Will the FOMC Minutes Boost Bets For December Rate-Hike?
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes
Market participants may closely watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes amid the growing dissent within the central bank, but the fresh rhetoric from the 2016-voting members (New York Fed President William Dudley and Kansas City Fed President Esther George) may have a more material impact on the U.S. dollar outlook as the board appears to be following a similar path to 2015.
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9 years 6 months ago #10604
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 OKTOBER 2016
• The DAX gaps below 10440/510 support zone and trend-line
• Barring a reversal, looking for lower prices with US markets looking set to decline
• Important support and resistance outlined
In yesterday’s commentary, we suggested the DAX could come under pressure following the bearish reversal off the top-side parallel. The turn lower is thus far creating yet another lower high in a sequence of lower highs, lower lows developing over the course of the past month.
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• The DAX gaps below 10440/510 support zone and trend-line
• Barring a reversal, looking for lower prices with US markets looking set to decline
• Important support and resistance outlined
In yesterday’s commentary, we suggested the DAX could come under pressure following the bearish reversal off the top-side parallel. The turn lower is thus far creating yet another lower high in a sequence of lower highs, lower lows developing over the course of the past month.
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9 years 6 months ago #10607
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 OKTOBER 2016
- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase for Sixth Time in 2016.
- Will a Rebound in Private-Consumption Boost Bets for a December Fed Rate-Hike?
Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales
A 0.6% rebound in U.S. Advance Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs.
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- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase for Sixth Time in 2016.
- Will a Rebound in Private-Consumption Boost Bets for a December Fed Rate-Hike?
Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales
A 0.6% rebound in U.S. Advance Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs.
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9 years 6 months ago #10609
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 17 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 OKTOBER 2016
- British Pound and Euro lead the way lower among G7 currencies last week.
- Euro playing ‘catch up’ to British Pound’s ‘Hard Brexit’ fears.
The Euro endured a rough, choppy week of trading asEUR/USD exited its symmetrical triangle to the downside, thanks to a barrage of small issues piling up: financial (Deutsche Bank); political (Brexit); and geopolitical (Russia). Among the EUR-crosses, EUR/CAD (-3.31%) and EUR/AUD (-2.57%) led to the downside, while EUR/GBP even finished lower by -0.09%.
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- British Pound and Euro lead the way lower among G7 currencies last week.
- Euro playing ‘catch up’ to British Pound’s ‘Hard Brexit’ fears.
The Euro endured a rough, choppy week of trading asEUR/USD exited its symmetrical triangle to the downside, thanks to a barrage of small issues piling up: financial (Deutsche Bank); political (Brexit); and geopolitical (Russia). Among the EUR-crosses, EUR/CAD (-3.31%) and EUR/AUD (-2.57%) led to the downside, while EUR/GBP even finished lower by -0.09%.
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9 years 6 months ago #10614
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 OKTOBER 2016
• The FTSE finds support at ‘Brexit’ trend-line and…
• Support at later summer peaks
• Trend is up as long as support holds
The last time we were discussing the FTSE 100 it was trading right around record levels, but has since pulled back. The decline took the UK index back to a solid level area of support formed by the late summer peaks, and roughly around the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders the index launched out of in the beginning of the month.
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• The FTSE finds support at ‘Brexit’ trend-line and…
• Support at later summer peaks
• Trend is up as long as support holds
The last time we were discussing the FTSE 100 it was trading right around record levels, but has since pulled back. The decline took the UK index back to a solid level area of support formed by the late summer peaks, and roughly around the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders the index launched out of in the beginning of the month.
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9 years 6 months ago #10622
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 OKTOBER 2016
- Bank of Canada (BoC) to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.50%.
- Will Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. Trim Their Economic Forecasts?
The Canadian dollar may show a limited reaction to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) October interest rate decision as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. are expected to retain the current policy, but the near-term decline in USD/CAD may largely unravel should the monetary policy report fuel bets for more easing.
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- Bank of Canada (BoC) to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.50%.
- Will Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. Trim Their Economic Forecasts?
The Canadian dollar may show a limited reaction to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) October interest rate decision as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. are expected to retain the current policy, but the near-term decline in USD/CAD may largely unravel should the monetary policy report fuel bets for more easing.
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9 years 6 months ago #10627
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 OKTOBER 2016
- European Central Bank (ECB) to Retain Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), QE Program.
- Will the Governing Council Adjust/Extend the Non-Standard Measures?
Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in October, the EUR/USD may face a sharp move should President Mario Draghi & Co. take additional steps to further support the monetary union.
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- European Central Bank (ECB) to Retain Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), QE Program.
- Will the Governing Council Adjust/Extend the Non-Standard Measures?
Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in October, the EUR/USD may face a sharp move should President Mario Draghi & Co. take additional steps to further support the monetary union.
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9 years 6 months ago #10630
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 OKTOBER 2016
- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Pick Up for First Time Since April.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Expand 1.8% for Second-Month.
A sharp rebound in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the Canadian dollar, but another downtick in the core rate of inflation may fuel the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as puts increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy.
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- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Pick Up for First Time Since April.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Expand 1.8% for Second-Month.
A sharp rebound in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the Canadian dollar, but another downtick in the core rate of inflation may fuel the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as puts increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy.
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9 years 5 months ago #10638
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 OKTOBER 2016
- ECB President Draghi dispatched speculation of an immediate tapering of QE.
- Traders forced to ‘kick the can’ down the road until December.
The Euro took another leg lower this week, sliding deeper in its losing streak as markets were forced to deal with reality: the European Central Bank would not be tapering its QE program immediately. EUR/CAD was the only EUR-cross above water this week (+0.65%), with EUR/JPY (-1.18%) and EUR/NZD (-1.86%) leading the way to the downside as a result.
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- ECB President Draghi dispatched speculation of an immediate tapering of QE.
- Traders forced to ‘kick the can’ down the road until December.
The Euro took another leg lower this week, sliding deeper in its losing streak as markets were forced to deal with reality: the European Central Bank would not be tapering its QE program immediately. EUR/CAD was the only EUR-cross above water this week (+0.65%), with EUR/JPY (-1.18%) and EUR/NZD (-1.86%) leading the way to the downside as a result.
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9 years 5 months ago #10642
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 OKTOBER 2016
• British Pound may decline as Carney testifies on Brexitto House of Lords
• Euro unlikely to find lasting cues in IFO data, Draghi comments in focus
• US consumer confidence data, Fed-speak to inform rate hike speculation
An appearance from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the House of Lords is in focus in European trading hours. The central bank chief will be questioned about the consequences of the Brexit referendum and policymakers’ response to it.
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• British Pound may decline as Carney testifies on Brexitto House of Lords
• Euro unlikely to find lasting cues in IFO data, Draghi comments in focus
• US consumer confidence data, Fed-speak to inform rate hike speculation
An appearance from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the House of Lords is in focus in European trading hours. The central bank chief will be questioned about the consequences of the Brexit referendum and policymakers’ response to it.
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9 years 5 months ago #10649
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 OKTOBER 2016
• Aussie Dollar may struggle to find follow-through on CPI-inspired rally
• British Pound down as markets rethink response to Carney commentary
• Yen, US Dollar may rise as commodity currencies suffer in risk-off trade
The Australian Dollar outperformed in Asian trading hours after third-quarter CPI figures topped economists’ expectations. The outcome appeared to weigh against RBA rate cut expectations but traders had already discounted the probability of further near-term easing ahead of the release, suggesting upside momentum may struggle for follow-through.
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• Aussie Dollar may struggle to find follow-through on CPI-inspired rally
• British Pound down as markets rethink response to Carney commentary
• Yen, US Dollar may rise as commodity currencies suffer in risk-off trade
The Australian Dollar outperformed in Asian trading hours after third-quarter CPI figures topped economists’ expectations. The outcome appeared to weigh against RBA rate cut expectations but traders had already discounted the probability of further near-term easing ahead of the release, suggesting upside momentum may struggle for follow-through.
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9 years 5 months ago - 9 years 5 months ago #10655
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 OKTOBER 2016
• Crude oil price briefly spiked on inventory data but failed to hold up
• Gold prices retreated after posting largest daily advance in a month
• Clouded risk sentiment trends, OPEC negotiations stand out as risks
Crude oil prices briefly spiked upward after EIA inventory data showed an unexpected outflow of 553k barrels last week. The outcome clashed with an API estimate published yesterday showing a build of 4.8 million barrels over the same period.
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• Crude oil price briefly spiked on inventory data but failed to hold up
• Gold prices retreated after posting largest daily advance in a month
• Clouded risk sentiment trends, OPEC negotiations stand out as risks
Crude oil prices briefly spiked upward after EIA inventory data showed an unexpected outflow of 553k barrels last week. The outcome clashed with an API estimate published yesterday showing a build of 4.8 million barrels over the same period.
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9 years 5 months ago #10659
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 28 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 OKTOBER 2016
• Euro may see near-term gains on strong German CPI figures
• US Dollar looks to third-quarter GDP data to inform Fed bets
• Follow-through on both currencies’ moves may prove limited
The preliminary set of October’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.8 percent, the highest in two years.
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• Euro may see near-term gains on strong German CPI figures
• US Dollar looks to third-quarter GDP data to inform Fed bets
• Follow-through on both currencies’ moves may prove limited
The preliminary set of October’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.8 percent, the highest in two years.
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9 years 5 months ago #10671
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Oktober 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 OKTOBER 2016
- Euro rally built on US Dollar weakness, improved Euro-Zone data translating into higher yields.
- Markets may be thinking ECB is behind the curve after recent data surprises.
The Euro had quite a strong week on approach to the end of October, finishing higher against all of the major currencies. EUR/USD’s gains could be considered modest (+0.92%), relative to the performances by EUR/JPY (+1.81%), EUR/CAD (+1.41%), and EUR/GBP (+1.32%).
Whereas EUR/USD weakness arrived late in the week on the back of headlines pertaining to the US Presidential election, Euro strength, generally speaking, was evident for most of the week as it appears markets are casting doubt on the European Central Bank’s dovish outlook.
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- Euro rally built on US Dollar weakness, improved Euro-Zone data translating into higher yields.
- Markets may be thinking ECB is behind the curve after recent data surprises.
The Euro had quite a strong week on approach to the end of October, finishing higher against all of the major currencies. EUR/USD’s gains could be considered modest (+0.92%), relative to the performances by EUR/JPY (+1.81%), EUR/CAD (+1.41%), and EUR/GBP (+1.32%).
Whereas EUR/USD weakness arrived late in the week on the back of headlines pertaining to the US Presidential election, Euro strength, generally speaking, was evident for most of the week as it appears markets are casting doubt on the European Central Bank’s dovish outlook.
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9 years 5 months ago #10675
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 November 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 NOVEMBER 2016
• British Pound, US Dollar may prove noncommittal on PMI, ISM data
• Japanese Yen falls as sentiment firms in Asia, saps anti-risk demand
• Aussie Dollar outperforms as RBA dents rate cut speculation further
October’s UK manufacturing PMI survey headlines the data docket in European trading hours. Economic news-flow has softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for the possibility of a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed fears that cooling in wake of the Brexit referendum is beginning to emerge, weighing on the British Pound.
Rest van het artikel
• British Pound, US Dollar may prove noncommittal on PMI, ISM data
• Japanese Yen falls as sentiment firms in Asia, saps anti-risk demand
• Aussie Dollar outperforms as RBA dents rate cut speculation further
October’s UK manufacturing PMI survey headlines the data docket in European trading hours. Economic news-flow has softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for the possibility of a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed fears that cooling in wake of the Brexit referendum is beginning to emerge, weighing on the British Pound.
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9 years 5 months ago #10685
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 November 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 NOVEMBER 2016
• US election jitters fuel risk aversion, send commodities broadly lower
• Gold prices aiming at $1300/oz figure after breaking chart resistance
• Crude oil prices vulnerable to deeper losses, API inventory data due
Crude oil prices fell alongside stocks as sentiment soured across financial markets.The move appeared to reflect renewed uncertainty about the outcome of the US general election after polls narrowed to the tightest in six weeks.
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• US election jitters fuel risk aversion, send commodities broadly lower
• Gold prices aiming at $1300/oz figure after breaking chart resistance
• Crude oil prices vulnerable to deeper losses, API inventory data due
Crude oil prices fell alongside stocks as sentiment soured across financial markets.The move appeared to reflect renewed uncertainty about the outcome of the US general election after polls narrowed to the tightest in six weeks.
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9 years 5 months ago #10687
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 November 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 NOVEMBER 2016
• British Pound volatility threatened on Brexit ruling, BOE rate decision
• UK High Court to announce if Parliament must approve A50 Trigger
• BOE growth outlook in focus as officials look through inflation uptick
All eyes are on the British Pound in European trading hours as heavy-duty event risk threatens to unleash breakneck volatility. First, the UK High Court will rule on whether or not Prime Minister Theresa May has to consult Parliament before triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (A50), initiating Brexit proceedings. Next, the Bank of England will deliver a monetary policy announcement as well as updated Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR).
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• British Pound volatility threatened on Brexit ruling, BOE rate decision
• UK High Court to announce if Parliament must approve A50 Trigger
• BOE growth outlook in focus as officials look through inflation uptick
All eyes are on the British Pound in European trading hours as heavy-duty event risk threatens to unleash breakneck volatility. First, the UK High Court will rule on whether or not Prime Minister Theresa May has to consult Parliament before triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (A50), initiating Brexit proceedings. Next, the Bank of England will deliver a monetary policy announcement as well as updated Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR).
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9 years 5 months ago #10690
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 4 November 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 NOVEMBER 2016
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to Expand Less Than 200K for Third Consecutive Month.
- Unemployment Rate to Narrow to Annualized 4.9%; Average Hourly Earnings to Hold at 2.6%.
A 175K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless-rate may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD should the report fuel speculation for an imminent Fed rate-hike.
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- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to Expand Less Than 200K for Third Consecutive Month.
- Unemployment Rate to Narrow to Annualized 4.9%; Average Hourly Earnings to Hold at 2.6%.
A 175K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless-rate may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD should the report fuel speculation for an imminent Fed rate-hike.
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9 years 5 months ago #10695
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 November 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 NOVEMBER 2016
• Crude oil prices follow stocks higher as risk appetite firms
• Gold prices gap lower as FBI clears Clinton in email case
• US presidential election set to fully dominate the spotlight
Crude oil prices advanced alongside shares and gold prices plunged as risk appetite firmed across financial markets at the start of the trading week. The collective mood brightened after the FBI affirmed Hillary Clinton did not a commit a crime in her handling of emails while serving as Secretary of State. Investigators had rattled traders by resuming inquiry into the case just 11 days before this week’s election having seemingly put it to rest back in July.
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• Crude oil prices follow stocks higher as risk appetite firms
• Gold prices gap lower as FBI clears Clinton in email case
• US presidential election set to fully dominate the spotlight
Crude oil prices advanced alongside shares and gold prices plunged as risk appetite firmed across financial markets at the start of the trading week. The collective mood brightened after the FBI affirmed Hillary Clinton did not a commit a crime in her handling of emails while serving as Secretary of State. Investigators had rattled traders by resuming inquiry into the case just 11 days before this week’s election having seemingly put it to rest back in July.
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