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Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019
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9 years 11 months ago #10265
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 17 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 MEI 2017
• Crude oil prices rise most in three weeks, break April swing top
• Gold prices await direction cues within familiar trading range
• Commodities may fall if US CPI data boosts Fed rate hike bets
April’s US CPI report looms large for commodity prices. The headline inflation rate is expected to tick higher to a year-on-year rate of 1.1 percent, the highest in four months. The core measure excluding energy and food prices is seen edging slightly lower to 2.1 from 2.2 percent in the prior month.
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• Crude oil prices rise most in three weeks, break April swing top
• Gold prices await direction cues within familiar trading range
• Commodities may fall if US CPI data boosts Fed rate hike bets
April’s US CPI report looms large for commodity prices. The headline inflation rate is expected to tick higher to a year-on-year rate of 1.1 percent, the highest in four months. The core measure excluding energy and food prices is seen edging slightly lower to 2.1 from 2.2 percent in the prior month.
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9 years 11 months ago #10267
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 MEI 2016
• US Dollar outperforms as hawkish Fed-speak boosts rate hike bets
• April FOMC minutes may send USD higher, trigger risk aversion
• UK jobless claims, revised Eurozone CPI figures likely non-events
The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising against its major counterparts amid building Fed rate hike speculation. Indeed, the benchmark currency advanced in lock-step with front-end US Treasury bond yields. The move follows hawkish comments from John Williams and Dennis Lockhart, Presidents of the Federal Reserve’s San Francisco and Atlanta branches, respectively.
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• US Dollar outperforms as hawkish Fed-speak boosts rate hike bets
• April FOMC minutes may send USD higher, trigger risk aversion
• UK jobless claims, revised Eurozone CPI figures likely non-events
The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising against its major counterparts amid building Fed rate hike speculation. Indeed, the benchmark currency advanced in lock-step with front-end US Treasury bond yields. The move follows hawkish comments from John Williams and Dennis Lockhart, Presidents of the Federal Reserve’s San Francisco and Atlanta branches, respectively.
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9 years 10 months ago #10281
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 24 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 MEI 2016
• Gold prices working on fifth consecutive decline on Fed rate hike bets
• Crude oil prices continue to show signs of topping below $49/bbl mark
• Upbeat surprise on US New Home Sales data may punish commodities
Firming bets on a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike continue to undercut demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets, weighing on gold prices. The yellow metal dropped to a one-month low while priced-in year-end outlook for the US central bank’s benchmark lending rate implied in Fed Funds futures rose to the highest since late March.
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• Gold prices working on fifth consecutive decline on Fed rate hike bets
• Crude oil prices continue to show signs of topping below $49/bbl mark
• Upbeat surprise on US New Home Sales data may punish commodities
Firming bets on a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike continue to undercut demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets, weighing on gold prices. The yellow metal dropped to a one-month low while priced-in year-end outlook for the US central bank’s benchmark lending rate implied in Fed Funds futures rose to the highest since late March.
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9 years 10 months ago #10283
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 MEI 2016
• Crude oil prices negate bearish cues, set sights above $50/bbl figure
• Gold prices break 3-month support as FOMC rate hike outlook builds
• Fed officials’ commentary, EIA inventory data in the spotlight ahead
Crude oil prices pushed higher alongside a recovery in stock prices, with the advancing WTI contract tracking S&P 500 futures over the prior 24 hours. The recovery in sentiment began with yesterday’s European trading open, preceding upbeat US New Home Sales data published later in the day and subsequently cited around the news-wires as a would-be catalyst. In fact, a single readily-identifiable trigger appears absent.
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• Crude oil prices negate bearish cues, set sights above $50/bbl figure
• Gold prices break 3-month support as FOMC rate hike outlook builds
• Fed officials’ commentary, EIA inventory data in the spotlight ahead
Crude oil prices pushed higher alongside a recovery in stock prices, with the advancing WTI contract tracking S&P 500 futures over the prior 24 hours. The recovery in sentiment began with yesterday’s European trading open, preceding upbeat US New Home Sales data published later in the day and subsequently cited around the news-wires as a would-be catalyst. In fact, a single readily-identifiable trigger appears absent.
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9 years 10 months ago #10285
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 MEI 2016
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Increase for Second Straight Month in April.
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex. Aircrafts to Rise for First Time Since September.
Another 0.5% expansion in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy.
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- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Increase for Second Straight Month in April.
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex. Aircrafts to Rise for First Time Since September.
Another 0.5% expansion in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy.
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9 years 10 months ago #10287
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 MEI 2016
• Gold prices continue to slide after breaking monthly channel support
• Crude oil prices show new signs of topping after testing $50/bbl mark
• G7 communiqué weighs on commodities, Yellen and US GDP ahead
Gold prices found no support in easing Fed rate hike bets yesterday: the yellow metal finished the day with a seventh consecutive loss despite a pullback in priced-in tightening projections (as reflected in futures markets). The dovish shift seemed to be at odds with the day’s broadly upbeat US economic news-flow, with Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales figures topping expectations. Comments from Fed Governor Jerome Powell likewise mirrored the recent hawkish tone shift from other central bank officials.
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• Gold prices continue to slide after breaking monthly channel support
• Crude oil prices show new signs of topping after testing $50/bbl mark
• G7 communiqué weighs on commodities, Yellen and US GDP ahead
Gold prices found no support in easing Fed rate hike bets yesterday: the yellow metal finished the day with a seventh consecutive loss despite a pullback in priced-in tightening projections (as reflected in futures markets). The dovish shift seemed to be at odds with the day’s broadly upbeat US economic news-flow, with Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales figures topping expectations. Comments from Fed Governor Jerome Powell likewise mirrored the recent hawkish tone shift from other central bank officials.
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9 years 10 months ago #10290
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 30 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 MEI 2016
• Yen drops as risk appetite firms overnight, US Dollar gains on Fed outlook
• Canadian Dollar drops alongside crude oil prices ahead of OPEC meeting
• Euro unlikely to find direction in German CPI data on limited ECB impact
The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling against all of its top counterparts. Swelling risk appetite appeared to be behind the selloff, with the anti-risk currency falling inversely of gains in S&P 500 futures and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index.
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• Yen drops as risk appetite firms overnight, US Dollar gains on Fed outlook
• Canadian Dollar drops alongside crude oil prices ahead of OPEC meeting
• Euro unlikely to find direction in German CPI data on limited ECB impact
The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling against all of its top counterparts. Swelling risk appetite appeared to be behind the selloff, with the anti-risk currency falling inversely of gains in S&P 500 futures and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index.
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9 years 10 months ago #10292
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 31 Mei 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 MEI 2016
• Gold prices attempt recovery after suffering a nine-day losing streak
• Crude oil prices stalling near $50/bbl figure as OPEC meeting looms
• US PCE data in focus ahead amid swirling Fed rate hike speculation
Gold prices are attempting an intraday recovery alongside a pullback in the US Dollar in a move that seems to reflect moderating Fed rate hike bets. Follow-through is far from secure however as the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge crosses the wires.
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• Gold prices attempt recovery after suffering a nine-day losing streak
• Crude oil prices stalling near $50/bbl figure as OPEC meeting looms
• US PCE data in focus ahead amid swirling Fed rate hike speculation
Gold prices are attempting an intraday recovery alongside a pullback in the US Dollar in a move that seems to reflect moderating Fed rate hike bets. Follow-through is far from secure however as the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge crosses the wires.
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9 years 10 months ago #10299
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JUNI 2016
• Euro and British Pound will probably look past Eurozone, UK PMI data
• OECD economic outlook unlikely to stir volatility absent upside surprise
• US Dollar may rise as ISM, Beige Book surveys hint at firming inflation
A seemingly busy European economic calendar nonetheless lacks truly market-moving event risk. The final revision of May’s Eurozone PMI print is unlikely to deliver lasting Euro volatility considering its limited impact on near-term ECB policy trends. Meanwhile, UK PMI data may not register on traders’ radar as “Brexit” worries predominate, leaving the British Pound rudderless.
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• Euro and British Pound will probably look past Eurozone, UK PMI data
• OECD economic outlook unlikely to stir volatility absent upside surprise
• US Dollar may rise as ISM, Beige Book surveys hint at firming inflation
A seemingly busy European economic calendar nonetheless lacks truly market-moving event risk. The final revision of May’s Eurozone PMI print is unlikely to deliver lasting Euro volatility considering its limited impact on near-term ECB policy trends. Meanwhile, UK PMI data may not register on traders’ radar as “Brexit” worries predominate, leaving the British Pound rudderless.
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9 years 10 months ago #10305
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 JUNI 2016
- European Central Bank (ECB) to Preserve Current Policy in June.
- Will ECB President Keep the Door Open for More Non-Standard Measures?
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fail to generate a meaningful market reaction as the Governing Council is widely anticipated to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in June, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi and Co. keep the door open to implement more non-standard measures.
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- European Central Bank (ECB) to Preserve Current Policy in June.
- Will ECB President Keep the Door Open for More Non-Standard Measures?
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fail to generate a meaningful market reaction as the Governing Council is widely anticipated to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in June, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi and Co. keep the door open to implement more non-standard measures.
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9 years 10 months ago #10313
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 JUNI 2016
• Jobs report, Fed-speak put US rate hike speculation in the spotlight
• US Dollar may rise vs. majors as wage inflation tops expectations
• Comments from Governor Brainard may confirm Fed posture shift
All eyes are on May’s US Employment report in the final hours of the trading week. Consensus forecasts point to a 160k increase in payrolls, matching April’s outcome. The jobless rate is seen edging lower to 4.9 from 5 percent. Perhaps most critically, the year-on-year growth rate in average hourly earnings is expected to register at 2.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month.
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• Jobs report, Fed-speak put US rate hike speculation in the spotlight
• US Dollar may rise vs. majors as wage inflation tops expectations
• Comments from Governor Brainard may confirm Fed posture shift
All eyes are on May’s US Employment report in the final hours of the trading week. Consensus forecasts point to a 160k increase in payrolls, matching April’s outcome. The jobless rate is seen edging lower to 4.9 from 5 percent. Perhaps most critically, the year-on-year growth rate in average hourly earnings is expected to register at 2.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month.
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9 years 10 months ago #10335
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 6 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 JUNI 2016
- EUR/USD currently trades above 1.1350 as sideways movement prevails in early trade
- Fed Chair Yellen speech in Philadelphia in high focus
The EUR/USD currently trades above 1.1350 (at the time this report was written) as the pair seems to be treading water after the US Non-farm Payrolls surge this past Friday. A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours might mean that technical levels could hold as we look to find short term trading opportunities using the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator, with the Yellen speech in focus later today.
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- EUR/USD currently trades above 1.1350 as sideways movement prevails in early trade
- Fed Chair Yellen speech in Philadelphia in high focus
The EUR/USD currently trades above 1.1350 (at the time this report was written) as the pair seems to be treading water after the US Non-farm Payrolls surge this past Friday. A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours might mean that technical levels could hold as we look to find short term trading opportunities using the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator, with the Yellen speech in focus later today.
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9 years 10 months ago #10340
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 7 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 JUNI 2016
• Australian Dollar soared after RBA signals shift back to neutral policy stance
• British Pound briefly spiked higher vs. majors after alleged “fat finger” error
• Upside revision on Eurozone 1Q GDP may boost risk appetite, commodity FX
The Australian Dollar soared against its major counterparts after the RBA appeared to settle back into wait-and-see mode following last month’s surprise interest rate cut. The central bank kept its baseline cash rate unchanged as expected at 1.75 percent following today’s policy meeting but the accompanying statement seemed to strike a less dovish tone than previously.
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• Australian Dollar soared after RBA signals shift back to neutral policy stance
• British Pound briefly spiked higher vs. majors after alleged “fat finger” error
• Upside revision on Eurozone 1Q GDP may boost risk appetite, commodity FX
The Australian Dollar soared against its major counterparts after the RBA appeared to settle back into wait-and-see mode following last month’s surprise interest rate cut. The central bank kept its baseline cash rate unchanged as expected at 1.75 percent following today’s policy meeting but the accompanying statement seemed to strike a less dovish tone than previously.
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9 years 10 months ago #10342
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 JUNI 2016
• Gold prices stall at resistance after largest advance in four months
• Crude oil prices push upward but fail to overcome range resistance
• Risk appetite trends at the forefront, Eurozone GDP revision on tap
Gold prices have stalled after mounting a sharp recovery after May’s dismal US jobs report crushed Fed rate hike bets, boosting demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Thin US economic news-flow and a lull in Fed-speak ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement leave the metal without a readily apparent fundamental catalyst. This may open the door for a correction lower in the days ahead as traders look to rebalance exposure toward a more neutral stance before the rate decision crosses the wires.
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• Gold prices stall at resistance after largest advance in four months
• Crude oil prices push upward but fail to overcome range resistance
• Risk appetite trends at the forefront, Eurozone GDP revision on tap
Gold prices have stalled after mounting a sharp recovery after May’s dismal US jobs report crushed Fed rate hike bets, boosting demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Thin US economic news-flow and a lull in Fed-speak ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement leave the metal without a readily apparent fundamental catalyst. This may open the door for a correction lower in the days ahead as traders look to rebalance exposure toward a more neutral stance before the rate decision crosses the wires.
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9 years 10 months ago #10352
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 JUNI 2016
• Crude oil prices rise for third day, hit highest in over 11 months
• Gold prices strongest in 3 weeks as rally resumes after brief pause
• Quiet data docket set to put risk appetite trends at the forefront
Gold prices surged as US bond yields edged lower, implying that deteriorating Fed rate hike expectations may have bolstered the relative appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices likewise traded higher, bolstered by a recovery in risk appetite as well as a larger-than-expected weekly inventory drawdown reported by the EIA.
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• Crude oil prices rise for third day, hit highest in over 11 months
• Gold prices strongest in 3 weeks as rally resumes after brief pause
• Quiet data docket set to put risk appetite trends at the forefront
Gold prices surged as US bond yields edged lower, implying that deteriorating Fed rate hike expectations may have bolstered the relative appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices likewise traded higher, bolstered by a recovery in risk appetite as well as a larger-than-expected weekly inventory drawdown reported by the EIA.
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9 years 10 months ago #10356
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 JUNI 2016
- Canada Employment to Increase for Second Time in 2016.
- Jobless Rate to Climb to Annualized 7.2%- Highest Reading Since February.
Despite forecasts for an uptick in the jobless rate, a 1.8K rebound in Canada Employment may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spur a near-term decline in USD/CAD as the data highlights an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
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- Canada Employment to Increase for Second Time in 2016.
- Jobless Rate to Climb to Annualized 7.2%- Highest Reading Since February.
Despite forecasts for an uptick in the jobless rate, a 1.8K rebound in Canada Employment may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spur a near-term decline in USD/CAD as the data highlights an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
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9 years 10 months ago #10358
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 13 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 JUNI 2016
- USD/JPY currently trades near the 106.00 handle after breaking down in Asian trade
- A quiet Monday news flow wise stands in sharp contrast to a week full of key event risk
The USD/JPY currently trades below the 106.00 handle (at the time this report was written) after the pair broke down in Asia trading hours. The move lower appeared to be on the backdrop of a general “risk off” environment following a sharp move lower on Wall Street this past Friday.
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- USD/JPY currently trades near the 106.00 handle after breaking down in Asian trade
- A quiet Monday news flow wise stands in sharp contrast to a week full of key event risk
The USD/JPY currently trades below the 106.00 handle (at the time this report was written) after the pair broke down in Asia trading hours. The move lower appeared to be on the backdrop of a general “risk off” environment following a sharp move lower on Wall Street this past Friday.
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9 years 10 months ago #10359
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 14 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 JUNI 2016
• Crude oil prices fall as Brexit fears dent risk appetite
• Gold prices score longest winning streak in six weeks
• Risk-off momentum may slow as FOMC approaches
Crude oil prices closed at the lowest in three weeks yesterday as the sentiment-linked WTI contract continued to suffer amid broad-based risk aversion, tracking stock prices lower. Swelling “Brexit” worries appear to be stoking near-term selling pressure.
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• Crude oil prices fall as Brexit fears dent risk appetite
• Gold prices score longest winning streak in six weeks
• Risk-off momentum may slow as FOMC approaches
Crude oil prices closed at the lowest in three weeks yesterday as the sentiment-linked WTI contract continued to suffer amid broad-based risk aversion, tracking stock prices lower. Swelling “Brexit” worries appear to be stoking near-term selling pressure.
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9 years 10 months ago #10361
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 JUNI 2016
• Crude oil prices sink to test four-month trend support
• Gold prices extend advance but momentum slowing
• Commodities at risk if Fed opts for status-quo posture
Crude oil prices continued to slide alongside share prices yesterday as Brexit fears stoked broad-based risk aversion. Gold prices managed to score a fifth consecutive advance, with ebbing Fed rate hike bets emerging as the likely culprit once again: the OIS-implied 12-month policy outlook dropped to the lowest level since late February and now suggests traders no longer expect further tightening in 2016.
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• Crude oil prices sink to test four-month trend support
• Gold prices extend advance but momentum slowing
• Commodities at risk if Fed opts for status-quo posture
Crude oil prices continued to slide alongside share prices yesterday as Brexit fears stoked broad-based risk aversion. Gold prices managed to score a fifth consecutive advance, with ebbing Fed rate hike bets emerging as the likely culprit once again: the OIS-implied 12-month policy outlook dropped to the lowest level since late February and now suggests traders no longer expect further tightening in 2016.
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9 years 10 months ago #10363
by Jelle
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Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 16 Juni 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 JUNI 2016
- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Hold Steady at Annualized 1.1% for Second-Month.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Uptick for First Time in Three-Months.
Even though the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold steady at an annualized 1.1% in May, an uptick in the core rate of inflation may prop up the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as it puts greater pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
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- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Hold Steady at Annualized 1.1% for Second-Month.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Uptick for First Time in Three-Months.
Even though the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold steady at an annualized 1.1% in May, an uptick in the core rate of inflation may prop up the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as it puts greater pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
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