Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 FEBRUARI 2016

• Gold rallied toward 2015 top, on another day of equities rout
• Oil bounced above $27 although fundamentals remain weak
• Copper held steady by short covering while volume dropped

Gold price jumped to a daily top of 1263.48 before it calmed down not so far off. For the record, Reserve Bank of Australia is another central bank to reiterate a wait-and-see mode, after Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday. The stagnation in rate policy coupled with free falls in global stocks have boosted safe haven assets hugely, from fixed income to gold and JPY. This will likely carry on next week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 FEBRUARI 2016

• Gold weakened as China reopen facilitated risk buying in Asia
• Oil bounced to $30 along with risk rebound, despite weak fundamentals
• Copper rallied to potential demand as yuan appreciated

Gold price declined from 1250 area to around 1210 today as risk assets staged a recovery in Asia. After a week-long holiday, China market reopened with a 0.3% higher CNY mid-point set by the central bank PBoC. This momentous appreciation and dip buying interests propped up equities in the region, which hammered gold as a safe haven asset. Nikkei rallied 7.16 percent while Hang Seng jumped 3.27 percent. A prolonged Asia risk-on mood will restrict gold gains in the days ahead.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 FEBRUARI 2016

• Gold was hammered by the flight out of safe havens
• Oil sustained rising streak while news of production cuts unfold
• Copper advanced further as China sets yuan high and boosted new loans

The rally of risk assets may prolong throughout this week with the aid from oil gains and high CNY fixing by the PBoC. The central bank today set yuan mid-point not far off yesterday’s half-year low. All Asian equity indices posted gains during the day and bonds retreated.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 FEBRUARI 2016

• EUR/USD turns down from trendline resistance
• 1.1050 area a critical support confluence

EUR/USD failed last week from just above the 1.1340 internal trendline that connects the March, April and August 2015 lows. A fairly sharp correction has followed, but the euro is still well above the key support levels of interest around 1.1050 (see below). My take on the euro has been fairly simple this year. Within the key long-term support/resistance zone (symmetry lines related to 1995 high and 1985 low) between 1.0600 and 1.1600 I am fairly neutral on the pair. A breach of one of those levels is really needed in my view to set off anything meaningful from a longer-term directional standpoint.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 FEBRUARI 2016

• NZ Dollar gains on firming risk appetite, Aussie struggles after jobs data
• Euro to fall with Yen if ECB minutes boost easing bets, bolster sentiment
• US Dollar may be more sensitive to hawkish vs. dovish Fed commentary

The sentiment-linked New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, with prices tracking an upswing across Asian stock exchanges. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index added over 1.5 percent. The likewise risk-sensitive Australian Dollar failed to capitalize on the chipper mood, with prices weighed down by a disappointing jobs report.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 FEBRUARI 2016

- Headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Pick Up for Fourth Consecutive Month.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 2.1%- Highest Reading Since July 2012.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A marked pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the dollar and spark a further decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 FEBRUARI 2016

While the GBPUSD is getting hammered this morning, the FTSE 100 (FXCM: UK100) is up by 1.169% at the time of writing. The FTSE 100 tends to be detached from the overall conditions present in the U.K. economy with the bulk of FTSE 100 earnings sourced from outside Britain.

For now the short-term trend remains bullish above Friday’s low of 5913 and I see no reason for it to turn bearish so long as this low continues to be respected. On a break to last week’s high of 6066, the FTSE 100 may reach its February high of 6130.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 FEBRUARI 2016

• Gold snapped 2-day loss as risk flight and volatility render flows into safe havens
• Oil topped out upon gloomy supply news, lack of OPEC’s action
• Copper retreated with stocks, weak fundamentals indicate prolonged weak demand

The risk rally faded somewhat after an initial eager response to China’s stimulus steps on Monday. Continual position adjustments derailed the risk rally in Asia, following mixed action during overnight sessions.

Oil price topped out at $33.84 after a whirlwind of neutral-to-bad news on supply prospects. El-Badri, OPEC general secretary, kept market players interested that a freeze is hopeful and inclusive to non-OPEC countries. The International Energy Agency (part of OECD) predicted this global surplus will persist into next year, effectively limits any price rebound. Meanwhile, rating house Standard and Poor’s downgraded a number of oil producers.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 FEBRUARI 2016

• Yen gains, Aussie and NZ Dollars fall as Asian stocks follow Wall St. lower
• British Pound drops below 1.40 vs. US Dollar for the first time since 2009
• US Dollar looks for rates policy clues in PMI data, Fed’s Lacker comments

Risk aversion returned in Asian trade, with regional shares following Wall Street lower and reverberating into G10 FX performance. The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed upward while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars faced selling pressure.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 FEBRUARI 2016

- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Pick Up for First Time in Three-Months.
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts to Rebound 1.0% After Contracting 4.3% in December.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
A 2.5% rebound in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may heighten the appeal of greenback and generate fresh weekly lows in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 FEBRUARI 2016

• Positive signs for China's growth in 2016 according to Zhou, need for proactive fiscal policy
• German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble opposed any fiscal stimulus plan
• Mark Carney emphasized it’s imperative to avoid a global liquidity trap and ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ environment

The first day of the G20 meetings in Shanghai called for better policy coordination on a slowing global economy, but provided mixed commentary showing disagreements about what actual steps to take. China’s Zhou said fiscal policy in China would be more proactive, while German finance minister Schaeuble posed a counter position and stressed monetary and fiscal policy in Europe has been exhausted.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 FEBRUARI 2016

• Gold stayed flat as investors stay put before event risk in March
• Oil stabilized after good US growth data and weekly gain, producers continued to merge
• Copper retraced lower within range due to profit taking, ahead of China’s industrial production data

Oil price stabilised on Monday after a 15 percent rise last week, although it is facing a tough resistance at 34.25. Friday’s upward momentum was scaled down by oil and equity losses in New York, until positive fourth-quarter GDP and inflation PCE restored market confidence.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 MAART 2016

• British Pound may rebound on short-covering if PMI tops forecasts
• US Dollar looks to ISM data to boost Fed interest rate hike outlook
• Aussie Dollar erases post-China PMI drop on neutral RBA rhetoric

February’s UK Manufacturing PMI survey headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. A slowdown in the pace of factory-sector growth is expected, with the headline index ticking down to 52.3 from 52.9 in the prior month.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MAART 2016

• Aussie Dollar rallies after 4Q GDP data weighs on RBA rate cut bets
• US ADP jobs report, Fed’s Beige Book to guide FOMC policy outlook
• Crude oil may rise on inventories data, helping to buoy risk sentiment

The Australian Dollar is outperforming in overnight trade following an upbeat set of fourth-quarter GDP figures. Output grew 0.6 percent, topping expectations calling for a 0.4 percent increase. The year-on-year growth rate rose to 3 percent, the highest in four years. The currency tracked a jump in front-end bond yields after the data crossed the wires, hinting the results reinforced yesterday’s upbeat RBA policy statement and weighed against rate cut speculation.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 MAART 2016

- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey to Slow for Fourth Consecutive Month.
- Reading of 53.0 Would Mark the Lowest Print Since February 2014.

A further slowdown in the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may dampen the appeal of the greenback and spark a short-term rebound in EUR/USD as it puts increase pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay the normalization cycle.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 MAART 2016

• February’s US employment report in the spotlight across financial markets
• Data’s non-impact on March rate hike bets may restrict trend development
• Upside surprise may translate into US Dollar strength in the weeks ahead

All eyes are on February’s US Employment report in the final hours of the trading week. A payrolls increase of 195k is expected, marking an improvement from January’s lackluster 151k gain. The pace of wage inflation and the jobless rate are seen holding unchanged from the prior month at 2.5 and 4.9 percent, respectively.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 MAART 2016

• Commodity currencies underperform as US Dollar bounces in Asian trade
• S&P 500 futures hint at corrective risk-off mood to start the trading week
• Fed-speak may offer clues about tone of upcoming FOMC announcement

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade as the US Dollar staged a broad-based recovery after hitting a three-week low. The three commodity bloc currencies were the best performers against the greenback on Friday, which may help to explain outsized losses as the US currency retraces.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 MAART 2016

• British Pound may rise as Carney testimony boosts argument against Brexit
• Revised Eurozone GDP data may pass without fanfare as markets await ECB
• Commodity Dollars drop, Yen gains as Chinese data amplifies risk aversion

The Bank of England will be drawn into the debate surrounding UK membership in the European Union as Governor Mark Carney testifies on the matter before Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee. The government has announced that it will put so-called “Brexit” to a referendum on June 23. Carney will be put on the spot to give a view on the economic implications of a rupture with the EU, including potentially adverse shocks to trade and the financial sector.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MAART 2016

- Bank of Canada (BoC) Widely Anticipated to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate to Record-Low of 0.50%.
- Will Governor Stephen Poloz Highlight an End of the Easing-Cycle?

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 25 economists polled forecast the Bank of Canada (BoC) to retain its current policy in March, but the accompanying policy statement may boost the appeal of the loonie and spur a further decline in USD/CAD should Governor Stephen Poloz show a greater willingness to move away from the easing cycle.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 MAART 2016

- Euro will only stay lower if the ECB unloads its 'bazooka.'
- Join me today at 12:30 GMT for live coverage of the ECB meeting.
- As FX market volatility stays elevated, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The European Central Bank has a tall task ahead of itself if it's going to keep the Euro pinned lower after today. While ECB and Fed policies are moving in opposite directions at current time, both face the same issue, an issue that central banks are facing globally: they are running out of policy tools. For the ECB today, it is desperately in the need to surprise shorter-term traders and longer-term investors alike.

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