Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 OKTOBER 2015

• US Dollar Looking to CPI Data for a Lifeline as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fizzle
• Commodity Dollars Drop, Yen Gains as Risk Appetite Firms in Asian Trade

A quiet economic calendar in Europe is likely to keep speculation about the trajectory of Fed policy in focus as the US CPI report comes across the wires. The core year-on-year growth rate is expected to print at 1.8 percent in September, unchanged from the prior month.

Fed funds futures show traders now envision liftoff in April 2016 having favored March only yesterday. The dovish shift came after US PPI figures showed core wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed in September while the Fed Beige Book survey said prices remain “fairly stable” and wage growth is “mostly subdued”.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 OKTOBER 2015

- AUDUSD consolidating in a new, ST symmetrical triangle.
- EURUSD slipping back; ECB next week may try to limit gains.

Data has been disappointing for the US Dollar overall, even if yesterday's jobless claims and US CPI figures helped lift the buck. In fact, yesterday's data beats were 'so good' relative to recent trends that the US Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge of near-term data momentum (basically, does the actual data come within two standard deviations of the aggregate forecasts), jumped from -26.7 to -18.5;this is the first time since September 11 that the CESIUSD is back above -20.0.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 OKTOBER 2015

• China’s third quarter GDP printed a 6.9% reading, better than 6.8% expected and 7.0% in 2Q
• The Nikkei 225 recovered over 1% from its morning low and AUDUSD rose 0.35% after the data was reported
• This data may help convince China is finding success with a controlled economic slowing in transition

Asian shares and the Australian Dollar rose Monday morning after third quarter GDP data from China printed better than the markets’ expectation. The headline figure showed a reading of 6.9 percent year-over-year as opposed to the 6.8 percent consensus forecast. This print is the lowest reading since June of 2009. China’s GDP from the second quarter was 7.0 percent. Amongst other data releases, retail sales beat forecasts at 10.9 percent annual growth through September versus 10.8 percent forecast.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 OKTOBER 2015

- AUD/USD in triangle, EUR/AUD tests year-long trend support.
- EUR/CAD vulnerable to shifting Canadian policies, ECB this week.

In what is justly called a disinteresting week for US economic data, it seems destined that exogenous influences will be the catalysts for USD-pairs, and central banks other than the Federal Reserve will be responsible for supporting risk appetite. With the Bank of Canada set to meet tomorrow and the European Central Bank on Thursday, there will be plenty of central bank fodder for traders to work with.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 OKTOBER 2015

- Bank of Canada (BoC) Expected to Keep Benchmark Interest Rate to Record-Low of 0.50%.
- Will Governor Stephen Poloz Highlight an Improved Outlook for Canada?

According to a Bloomberg News survey, 25 of the 26 economists polled forecast the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the benchmark interest at 0.50%, but a material shift in the policy outlook may boost the appeal of the Canadian dollar should the central bank sounds more upbeat this time around.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 OKTOBER 2015

• Traders Bet Euro Weakness Ahead of ECB Policy Monetary Announcement
• Deposit Rate Cut Hint or Fully Neutral Posture to Trigger Greatest Volatility

All eyes are on the monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank. Economists expect no changes this time around, but markets seem positioned for a dovish outcome, perhaps via rhetoric setting the stage for stimulus expansion in December.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 OKTOBER 2015

- Canada’s Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for First Time in Since April.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Uptick to Annualized 2.2% From 2.1%- Lowest Since February.

Despite forecasts for a slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), an uptick in the core rate of inflation may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spur a near-term decline in USD/CAD as it boosts interest rate expectations.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 OKTOBER 2015

• Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise After Surprise Round of PBOC Interest Rate Cuts
• US Dollar Pulls Back After Seven Days Of Gains on FOMC Pre-Positioning

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed following an unexpected round of PBOC interest rate cuts. China’s central bank cut rates for the sixth time in a year, lowering the one-year lending and deposit rates by 25bps to 4.35 and 1.5 percent, respectively. The reserve requirement ratio for all banks was also lowered by 50bps, with an additional 50bps reduction for select lenders.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 OKTOBER 2015

• We are heading into the final countdown to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision
• Technical breaks from the likes of EURUSD and the S&P 500 look tempting, but will struggle heading into the meet
• UK GDP and Chinese data is top fodder for Tuesday, and may highlight opportunities for Pound based crosses

The impressive breakouts from the Dollar and global equities this past week lost considerable momentum through Monday trade. This week is laden with high-level event risk and at the center of it all, we have Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. While many market participants have a notion of how it will play out - a hold on policy and a softer tone on future policy ambitions - it would be a tremendous risk to try and front run such an outcome.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 OKTOBER 2015

• US Dollar and Market-Wide Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve
• Australian Dollar Sinks as Soft CPI Data Fuels RBA Rate Cut Speculation

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve firmly in focus. A rate hike looks overwhelmingly unlikely. Fed funds futures suggest traders expect “liftoff” no sooner than March 2016. That means tightening now would almost certainly send markets into a tailspin. Avoiding just such an outcome is almost certainly why the Fed opted against a hike in September. Officials are surely no keener to spook investors at this point.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 OKTOBER 2015

• US Dollar May Add to Post-FOMC Gains if 3Q GDP Data Tops Estimates
• Risk-Averse Dynamics Confined to FX Space in Uneven Overnight Trade

The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed while the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded broadly higher in overnight trade. While this seems emblematic of classic risk aversion, a broad-based response across asset classes typically seen at sentiment extremes did not materialize, with mixed performance noted across Asian bourses.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 OKTOBER 2015

• Kiwi Dollar Outperforms Against Aussie as China Scraps One-Child Policy
• US Price Growth Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook, Boosting US Dollar

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade. The two sentiment-linked currencies advanced alongside S&P 500 futures, hinting the move reflected firming risk appetite. The Kiwi pulled ahead of its Aussie counterpart asChina announced a decision to scrap its one-child policy. The move may fuel greater milk powder demand, amounting to a windfall for New Zealand dairy exporters.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 NOVEMBER 2015

• UK’s Markit PMI printed 55.5, above the 51.3 expected
• Fastest manufacturing growth in 16 months
• The data can possibly fuel perception that the UK’s economy is closer to a rate increase

The British Pound rose 0.28 percent versus the US Dollar after today’s Markit PMI printed a seasonally adjusted 55.5, above the 51.3 reading expected by economists, and above the revised prior reading of 51.8 in September. The number marked the best month of output growth since June 2014. A number above 50 points to an expansion.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 NOVEMBER 2015

Silver prices keep on sliding.

The break of the bullish-trend line (show in the chart below) marks a resumption of the bearish trend. It would not surprise me if the current high of $15.45 becomes today’s high, but it is a question of when and if we breach yesterday’s low of $15.25. We expect the price to reach the psychological level of $15. Gold prices have already breached yesterday’s low and this confirms the bearish trend for silver prices.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 NOVEMBER 2015

The German DAX has remained bid over the last week and we don’t expect any major change to this theme until we get a catalyst which triggers an end to this short-term trend. Until this happens, the index may easily drift higher each day as is quite common during a bull market.

For the technical trend to turn bearish we will still focus on the 10,680 low (see chart below). Whilst intra-day scalpers may use yesterday’s low of 10,883 as a base for long positions, we doubt it will be a game changer if this level is broken. Hence, we will focus on the more important 10,680 level.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 NOVEMBER 2015

- GBP/USD stuck in neutral zone; GBP/JPY more bullish.
- USD/JPY breaking out of two-plus month long consolidation.

"Remember, remember, the fifth of November." Oh, I see your confusion - it also happens to be Guy Fawkes Day over in Britain. But it happens to be a different British calendar event, the Bank of England's "Super Thursday," that will be worth remembering in the days ahead. The simultaneous release of the central bank's policy decision, meeting minutes, and Quarterly Inflation Report should bring a wave of volatility - and both bullish and bearish opportunities - across the GBP-crosses.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 NOVEMBER 2015

• US Jobs Data May Top Forecasts, Boosting December Fed Rate Hike Bets
• Risk Trends May Obscure US Dollar Response to Upbeat Payrolls Figures

Currency markets are likely to look past second-tier event risk due to cross the wires in European hours, with all eyes focused on October’s US Employment data. An increase of 185,000 in non-farm payrolls is expected, while the jobless rate is seen edging down to a seven-year low of 5.0 percent. Also of note, the year-on-year growth rate in average hourly earnings is expected to rise to 2.3 percent, the highest in five months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 NOVEMBER 2015

• US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Fresh Fodder After Hitting 12-Year High
• New Zealand Dollar Gains as Traders Question RBNZ Rate Cut Probability

A quiet economic data docket at the start of the trading week is likely to put Fed-speak in the spotlight. Remarks from Eric Rosengren kick off a busy week of scheduled commentary. Traders will be keen to see if the typically dovish Boston Fed President was swayed in favor of a near-term rate hike by last week’s impressive payrolls data. Rhetoric suggesting as much is likely to offer a boost to the US Dollar. Rosengren is not a voter on the current FOMC committee but will be one in 2016, making him an active participant in the on-coming policy normalization process.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 NOVEMBER 2015

• Euro Looks to ECB Officials’ Remarks for Operation Clues on QE Expansion
• US Dollar, Pound May Rise if Fed and BOE Comments Fuel Rate Hike Bets

Another quiet day on the economic data front puts central bank commentary back in the spotlight. First, traders will have an opportunity to update ECB stimulus expansion bets as scheduled remarks from Daniele Nouy, Jens Weidmann and Benoit Coeure cross the wires. ECB President Mario Draghi hinted that expanded policy support may be announced next month but offered no practical specifics.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 NOVEMBER 2015

• The British Pound lost 0.25% versus the US Dollar after today’s UK labor data.
• The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.3%.
• Core weekly earnings slowed to 2.5%, below expectations

The British Pound lost 0.25% versus the US Dollar after today's UK employment data, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, but wage growth slowed. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% from July to September, below an unchanged 5.4% rate expected by economists, marking the lowest rate since 2008.

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