Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 JUNI 2015

• The Fed is arguably the most hawkish major central bank and the ECB the most dovish
• Greece is a lingering threat to the Euro's health while the Dollar stands ready to play haven to fear
• A rebound can develop without conviction as a prevailing trend see some capitulation

Interest rate views between the Euro and Dollar couldn't be much different and Greece is a persistent threat. So then why has EURUSD regained ground? There is no doubt that some speculators with a higher threshold for risk are taking jumping on in anticipation/hopes of an unlikely development - like US interest rate forecast collapsing or Greece's crisis finding a swift resolution. Yet, that view is a serious minority of the market; so it will struggle for conviction and thereby follow through.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 JUNI 2015

• Euro Selling to be Limited Even if EU FinMins Fail on Greek Funding Deal
• Australian Dollar Down Alongside Bond Yields as RBA Rate Cut Bets Build

Greece remains to the spotlight in European trading hours as Eurozone finance ministers continue to meet in Luxembourg. This time around, they will be joined by their counterparts of EU countries outside of the single currency bloc.

The markets appear fairly sanguine for now. Indeed, while yesterday’s meeting ended in deadlock between Athens and its creditors once again, Greek bond yields edged lower and the 1-year CDS spread narrowed to suggest worries about an adverse outcome eased.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 JUNI 2015


• US Dollar Marking Time After Pushing Through Range Floor
• S&P 500 in Digestion Mode After Last Week’s Upside Break
• Gold Stalls Above $1200/oz, Crude Oil Breaks Trend Support


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate after breaking range support following last week’s FOMC-inspired losses. Near-term support is at 11717, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11634-40 zone (May 14 low, 76.4% level). Alternatively, a move above the 50% Fib at 11779 opens the door for a challenge of the 11834-41 area (horizontal pivot, 38.2% expansion).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 JUNI 2015

• Upbeat US News-Flow May Rekindle Fed Rate Hike Bets, Boost US Dollar
• Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in June’s Flash Eurozone PMI Data

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a pickup in front-end US bond yields, hinting a firming policy outlook may have driven the move. A marginal improvement in Fed rate-hike expectations may have followed better-than-expected Existing Home Sales figures. Purchases amounted to 5.35 million in May, the most since November 2009.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 JUNI 2015

• In a dwindling range, EURUSD forced a break this past session; but key risk ahead stalled progress
• A usually-quiet Fed voice has added a hawkish lean on rate forecasts
• Pound pairs have been driven by rate expectations, but a light docket may offer interim opportunity


The Greek fuse continues to burn, but that didn't prevent EURUSD from breaking from its narrow range this past session. A market-wide slump for the Euro marked a serious divergence from European equities which recovered lost ground on headlines that could be selected as evidence of progress on the tense debt standoff.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 JUNI 2015

• Greece Debt Talks in Focus as Eurozone FinMins Gather for Another Meeting
• Euro Gains on Deal Between Greece, Creditors May Not Have Follow-Through

A quiet economic calendar in European hours will keep Greece in the spotlight as Eurozone finance ministers struggle to secure a deal between the country and its creditors. Hopes were running high early in the week after Athens submitted an updated set of proposed reforms meant to unlock a tranche of bailout funding. Traction has failed to materialize thus far however.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 JUNI 2015

• Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms on Risk Aversion in Asian Trade
• Kiwi Dollar Seesaws on RBNZ Rhetoric, Upbeat Trade Balance Report
• Euro Waiting on Greece-Linked News-Flow from EU Leaders’ Summit

The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar traded lower while the safety-geared Japanese Yen outperformed as risk aversion swept markets in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.9 percent, following negative cues from Wall Street. Newswires attributed the dour mood to the absence of a funding deal between Greece and its creditors at an emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 JUNI 2015

- The Greek debt negotiations only recently started to impact charts, and not in a good way for the Euro.
- FX markets honed in on the seriousness of the Greek negotiations by Friday, leaving the Euro weaker.


It was a rough week for the Euro, and it doesn’t look like it’s about to get any easier. EURUSD declined by -1.66% to close the week at $1.1189, while EURJPY slipped by -0.72% to ¥138.31; the majority of the declines developed mid-week when it became clear that Greek negotiators and their creditor counterparts would be unable to reach an accord over short-term financing (to help Greek meet its June 30 obligation to the IMF), and after a breakdown in negotiations at the very last moment on Friday, it now seems the Euro is guaranteed a rough few days this week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 JUNI 2015

• Greece Set to Miss IMF Repayment with As-Yet Unknown Euro Implications
• Pound May Decline if 1Q UK GDP Revision Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets

The revised set of first-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The baseline outlook calls for a slight upgrade showing output expanded 0.4 percent versus the 0.3 percent gain initially reported. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JULI 2015

• The panic surrounding Greece and reflected in the Euro's massive gap Monday has eased
• At the turn of the clocks, Greece is in a technical default with the IMF and its bailout has expired
• Sentiment behind Greece may have settled but risk trends are still dangerously positioned

The sheer panic surrounding Greece that drove the Euro on a massive bearish gap Monday morning has settled as the week progresses. That stability seems more ironic considering the country has entered technical default on a payment due the IMF (though with a grace period and the understanding that this is a bilateral loan) and its frequently tenuous rescue program expired as we rolled into Wednesday.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 JULI 2015

• Upbeat Jobs Data May Boost US Dollar, Drive Broad-Based Risk Aversion
• NZ Dollar Down as Dairy Prices Slump, Fueling RBNZ Rate Cut Speculation

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a slide in front-end bond yields, pointing to building RBNZ interest rate cut expectations as the driver behind the selloff.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 JULI 2015

• British Pound May Fall as June PMIs Undercut BOE Tightening Speculation
• Australian Dollar Drops as Soft Retail Sales Data Inspires RBA Rate Cut Bets

The final set of June’s UK PMI data figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth rebounding after sliding to a five-month low in May. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 JULI 2015

• Gold surged on safe haven demand but USD strength capped gains
• Crude oil slid as financial instability weighed on future demand
• Copper weakened after Greek vote result and China’s rate cuts

Gold prices gained a 0.6 percent in Asian morning trade as safe haven demand rose after Greeks voted against the creditors’ proposal at Sunday’s referendum. The political stalemate regarding Greek debt is entering uncharted territory with capital controls in Greece and upcoming meetings among European leaders. These ongoing developments will likely provide a baseline for gold prices, with resistance levels coming in at 1180.40 and 1188.00.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 JULI 2015


• Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as Eurozone Officials Meet for Greece Crisis Talks
• Australian Dollar Little-Changed After Another Status-Quo RBA Rate Decision

Greece remains in focus as the aftermath of the weekend’s referendum rejecting the EU-proposed debt deal terms continues to play out. Eurozone finance ministers are set to hold an emergency meeting to discuss how to proceed from here. This will set the stage for a Eurozone leaders’ summit thereafter.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 JULI 2015

China Takes Increasingly Drastic Measures to Halt Stock Market Plunge
Chinese markets have been battered the past four weeks. Heavy selling has plagued the country’s equity market despite intrepid efforts by regulators and the government to try to halt the panic. Wednesday’s open was no different. Gauging overnight sentiment and fearing another plunge was awaiting the start of trade, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reportedly took the incredible step of freezing trade on 43 percent of shares in the entire stock market.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 JULI 2015

• Yen Pulled Back, Australian Dollar Rose as Risk Appetite Stabilized in Asia
• Bank of England Policy Decision Likely a Non-Event for the British Pound
• Greece Crisis Back in Focus as PM Tsipras Submits New Debt Deal Plan

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as a recovery in risk appetite weighed on the safety-linked currency. The sentiment-geared Australian Dollar advanced, adding 0.7 percent against the majors.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 JULI 2015

• Yen Drops, Euro Gains as New Greece Debt Deal Hopes Boost Risk Appetite
• US Dollar May Rise if Yellen Comments Rekindle Fed Rate Hike Speculation
• See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade as risk sentiment recovered, weighing on demand for the safety-linked currency. USDJPY tracked higher in near-perfect lockstep with a swift recovery in S&P 500 futures. Optimism appeared linked to renewed hopes for a deal to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Indeed, the Euro outpaced its top counterparts in Asia, adding as much as 0.8 percent on average.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 JULI 2015

• XAUUSD declined more than 5.3 percent in morning trade
• Gold futures declined more than 4.6 percent in morning trade
• Volume for gold futures remained low

Gold declined more than 5.3 percent versus the US Dollar in the early hours of Monday. The precious metal fell to its lowest level since February 11th, 2010, marking a fresh 5-year low. Looking at gold futures, they declined more than 4.6 percent in early trade while volume remained low. As of this market alert: XAUUSD is down 2.31 percent to 1108.00, and gold futures are down 2.5 percent to 1106.3.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 JULI 2015

• The DB Powershares Commodity ETF hit a series’ low Monday as S&P 500 stood just off a record
• Gold suffered its biggest jolt since December 1 on a sharp drop to five-year lows
• Oil prices have slid to three-month lows

It used to be that commodities represented one of the venues that risk-minded traders will take when they were bidding higher returns – particularly in risk-positive conditions. However, we are seeing clear evidence that this particular asset class has lost a lot of its clout as a speculative favorite from metals to energy to ‘softs’.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 JULI 2015

• Coming so close to a fresh record high, the S&P 500 has instead turned from its two week rally
• Top event risk in the upcoming 24 hours rests with the Kiwi Dollar on the RBNZ rate decision
• BoE minutes, Chinese data and Aussie CPI are noteworthy risk and monetary policy fodder

Faced with the decision to return to record highs or back off its two-week advance, the S&P 500 stalled and put off its first record high in two months. The short-term appetites of speculators is growing increasingly transparent and event risk like the poor tech earnings after the New York close are generating greater fret from market participants.

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