Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 APRIL 2015

• British Pound May Rise as BOE April Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets
• Aussie Dollar Gains as Core CPI Unexpectedly Rises, Firming RBA Outlook

The release of minutes from April’s Bank of England policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Leading survey data shows the UK began to re-accelerate in 2015 after a protracted slowdown starting in October 2013. The rebound followed a pickup in the Eurozone, which accounts for close to half of UK export demand. Improving conditions have spilled over into inflation expectations, with the 5-year breakeven rate at a four-month high after bottoming in mid-March.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 APRIL 2015

• Eurozone PMIs May Prove More Market-Moving for the Pound vs. the Euro
• NZ Dollar Slumps as RBNZ’s McDermott Talks Down Rate Hike Possibilities
• Franc Corrects Higher After Yesterday’s Aggressive SNB-Inspired Decline

The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth continued to accelerate, hitting a new four-year high.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 APRIL 2015

• Traders May Ignore German IFO Data on Limited ECB Expectations Impact
• Euro May Rise on Bets Eurozone Officials to Reach Deal on Greece Funding

Currency markets are likely to look past the release of Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence. With the ECB seemingly on auto-pilot for the time being, the outcome is unlikely to produce a significant inflection point for near-term policy expectations.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 APRIL 2015

• Euro Shrugs Off Lackluster Ecofin Meeting Despite Rising Greece Risks
• Kiwi Dollar Gains with Bond Yields, Hinting at Bets Against RBNZ Cut

Currency markets were largely mired in consolidation mode in overnight trade despite seemingly ominous cues from the weekend’s Ecofin meeting in Riga. Newswires suggest the talks broke down amid procedural disputes between Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and his counterparts, with apparently little time devoted to matters of substance.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 APRIL 2015

• British Pound Ma Rise if 1Q GDP Data Reboots 2015 BOE Rate Hike Hopes
• Australian Dollar Gains with Yields Despite Lackluster Stevens Commentary

First-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to slow to 2.6 percent, marking the weakest print since the fourth quarter of 2013. While UK economic data has underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, leading survey data points to accelerating manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth through March. If this proves to foreshadow an upbeat GDP print, the British Pound is likely to rise as traders reconsider the possibility of a 2015 BOE interest rate hike. As it stands, futures markets price in the onset of policy tightening in the first quarter of 2016. We remain short EURGBP.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 APRIL 2015

• US Dollar Selling May Continue on Status-Quo FOMC Announcement
• Aussie Dollar Corrects Lower After Largest Rally in Nearly 15 Months
• NZ Dollar Fails to Hold Gains on Trade Data as RBNZ Looms Ahead

The outcome of April’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is likely to dominate the spotlight in the hours ahead. A rate hike seems overwhelmingly unlikely just yet, putting the onus on the statement accompanying the announcement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 APRIL 2015

• Yen Gains as Fed Stays the Course on Rate Hike Despite 1Q Slowdown
• New Zealand Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Opens the Door for Policy Easing
• Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Momentum in Eurozone Inflation Report

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.5 percent. The move mirrored a sharp drop on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to haven flows as the driver propelling the safety-linked currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.5 percent in a move the news-wires attributed to the absence of overtly dovish rhetoric in the FOMC policy statement published earlier in the day.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 MEI 2015

• EURUSD has rallied six straight days for the first time in 16 months and volume hit a 4.5 year high
• The Euro has rebound convincingly with 'hope for a Greece deal' a fundamental justification for bulls
• Yet, even if Greece finds relief, the Euro's fundamental backdrop is far from bullish

There is no doubting the power of the Euro's recent rebound. EURUSD has marked its most persistent climb since the end of 2013 and volume has swollen to levels not seen since 2010. Other Euro-based crosses have experienced similarly impressive bids on the common currency, showing the breadth and source of the move. Yet, intense moves do not guarantee trends. Fundamentals are important for conviction. Easing tensions on Greece represents a banner for bulls to rally behind. Yet, a break in the deadlock for the country does not mean its troubles are over. Moreover, Greece isn't even the primary weight on the Euro. We focus on the Euro and the longevity of its recent advance in today's Strategy Video.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 MEI 2015

- May has produced strongest monthly performance for USD in QE era.
- Australian Dollar, Euro have typically led underperformers.
- Variation of returns is higher than other months; volatility is common.

The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. In our previous study, we decided to once again focus only on recent performance during the QE era of central bank policies (2009-present).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 MEI 2015

• Aussie Dollar Gains Despite RBA Rate Cut Amid Fading Further EasingBets
• US Dollar Looks to Service-Sector ISM Figures to Inform Fed Rate Outlook

The Australian Dollar traded higher following a policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia. While policymakers cut the benchmark interest rate to a record-low 2 percent as widely expected, the accompanying policy statement struck an upbeat tone that seemed to lower the probability of further easing in the near term.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 MEI 2015

• Euro Gains as ECB Mulls Greek Banks’ ELA Access, Athens Sells 6-mo Bills
• New Zealand Dollar Slumps as Soft 1Q Jobs Data Fuels RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

All eyes will be on Greece in European trading hours. The beleaguered country will try to raise €875 million in a six-month bill sale ahead of a scheduled payment of €1.4 billion in maturing paper on Thursday. Meanwhile, the ECB Governing Council will meet to discuss Greek banks’ continued access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 MEI 2015

• US Dollar Eyes April Low After Brief Attempt at Bounce Fizzles
• S&P 500 Sinks to Monthly Low as Double Top Potential Builds
• Crude Oil Chart Setup Warns of Possible Topping Below $70.00


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are on pace to test April’s swing bottom anew after a second consecutive day of heavy losses. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11737 exposes the 50% level at 11688. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% level at 11799 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% Fib at 11837.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 MEI 2015

• Early exit polls on the UK election suggested a clear outcome and drove the Pound sharply higher
• GBPUSD posted one of its largest intraday moves on recent records, but the next stage may depend on NFPs
• The US employment report will be a key USD and 'risk' catalyst, Euro traders need to keep tabs on Greece

Volatility continues to bubble in the FX market. Greek negotiations, early UK election results and the upcoming NFPs are key events that carry serious fundamental weight in exchange rates. In overnight markets, the headline was the massive, nearly 200-pip rally GBPUSD projected after initial exit polls suggested a Conservative lead would make forming a government an easier prospect than had been anticipated.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 MEI 2015

- The Euro’s run against the US Dollar has benefited from the bearish technical nature of the USDOLLAR Index.
- Exogenous influences, particularly the unwinding of the ECB’s QE-driven trade positions, are driving FX markets.
- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

It was a rather uninspired week for the Euro, as traders focused on events outside of the Euro-Zone more so than Greece or the continued unwind of trade positions based on the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program. EURUSD was unchanged on the week (thanks to a late-week greenback rebound capped by a decent April US jobs report), EURGBP slipped by -2.03% (thanks to a surprising electoral outcome in the UK), and EURAUD dropped by -1.03% (as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates, but failed to give guidance on future dovish action).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 MEI 2015

• US Dollar Remains in Consolidation Mode Near April Bottom
• S&P 500 Continues to Struggle with Breaching February High
• Gold Still Treading Water, Crude Oil Declines to 2-Week Low

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to drift sideways in consolidation mode above April’s swing bottom. A daily close below the 11736-7 area (February 6 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 50% level at 11688. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib retracement at 11839 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11901.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 MEI 2015

- Euro-Zone 1Q GDP to Expand Annualized 1.0%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since 1Q 2014.
- Will Faster Growth Spark a ‘Taper Tantrum’ in Euro-Area?


Trading the News: Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Euro-Zone’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal the single currency and spur a bullish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants anticipate a faster rate of growth in the monetary union.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 MEI 2015

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Prices Hit 4-Month Low
The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index cleared April’s swing bottom, sinking to the lowest level in four months. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 11638 exposes the 76.4% level at 11576. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fib at 11688 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 11737.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 MEI 2015

• US Dollar Looks to Industrial Production, UofM Data to Inform Fed Outlook
• Aussie, NZ Dollars Drop Amid Deteriorating Policy Expectations Overnight

The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade after sliding to a four-month low in the preceding session. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in moves that appeared linked to deteriorating monetary policy expectations.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 MEI 2015

• NZ Dollar Slumps as Markets Bet on Most Dovish RBNZ Outlook Since 2009
• Aussie Dollar Fails to Hold Gains After Comments from RBA DepGov Lowe
• US Dollar Corrects Higher After Dropping the Most in a Month Last Week

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid deteriorating RBNZ policy expectations. Priced-in bets reveal investors are leaning toward two 25 basis point rate cuts over the coming 12 months, making for the most dovish outlook since 2009.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 MEI 2015

• Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation
• NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets

April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1 percent, unchanged from the 9-year low recorded in the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts since early February, hinting analysts are over-estimating performance and opening the door for a downside surprise. Leading activity surveys likewise point softer pricing trends, reinforcing the possibility of a disappointing outcome. Such a result may cool UK rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

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