Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 MAART 2015

• US Dollar, British Pound May Fall as Soft CPI Figures Dent Rate Hike Bets
• Limited ECB Policy Impact to Contain Euro Follow-Through on PMI Data

February’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slip to 1.3 percent. UK price-growth data has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, suggesting economists’ models are over-estimating inflation and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may further depress Bank of England interest rate hike bets, weighing on the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 MAART 2015

• Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in Upbeat German IFO Survey Data
• US Dollar May Decline as Fed Commentary Supports Dovish Outlook Shift
• New Zealand Dollar Underperforms on Soft Trade Balance Data Overnight

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to rise for the fifth consecutive month in March, registering at the highest level since July. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook. Indeed, sentiment may be improving because the central bank has expanded stimulus efforts, which hardly seems like a supportive narrative for the single currency.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 MAART 2015

• Aussie, NZ Dollars Sink as Yemen Turmoil Drives Risk Aversion
• US Dollar at Risk if Fed-Speak Underpins Rate Hike Delay Bets

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 and 0.3 percent on average against their leading counterparts. A drop on Asian stock exchanges appeared to be the catalyst behind the slide in the sentiment-linked currencies.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 MAART 2015

• FX Markets Eye ECB, BOE, Fed Commentary into Week-End
• Commodity Dollars Drop Alongside Oil , Iron Ore Prices in Asia

Central bank commentary is likely to overshadow a lackluster economic calendar through the end of the trading week. From the Bank of England, scheduled remarks from Governor Mark Carney, Chief Economist Andy Haldane and Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent are due to cross the wires. From the ECB, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is on tap. Finally, from the Federal Reserve, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen are in the queue.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 MAART 2015

• Euro to Look Beyond German CPI, Focus on Greece Developments
• Aussie, NZ Dollars Drop Amid Commodities-Driven Risk Aversion

The preliminary set of March’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, rising for a second consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 MAART 2015

• Euro to Look Past CPI Data, Focus on Greece Debt Negotiations
• Greek Deal May Boost Aussie and NZ Dollar, Boost Japanese Yen

The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, rising for a second consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 APRIL 2015

• Technical and fundamental analysis can align for trades and conflict to sabotage them
• For USDJPY, a recent bearish technical break was temporarily snuffed out due to its connection to 'risk'
• The Yen crosses connection to underlying sentiment trends presents a different, big-picture view

The number of false technical breaks we encounter as traders is likely enumerable. So what determines whether a perfectly formed surge from congestion turns into a lasting move or quickly fizzles out to subsequently reverse? The substance of the 'staging' price action certainly matters, but more often the fundamental backdrop determines conviction. That was the case with USDJPY into last week's close and this week's open.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 APRIL 2015

• NZ Dollar Gains on Exports Price Data, Aussie Falls with Iron Ore
• British Pound May Tick Downward if Construction PMI Disappoints

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed data from ANZ showing the price of New Zealand’s commodity exports on global markets jumped 4.6 percent in March, marking the largest increase in 23 months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 APRIL 2015

• US Dollar to Rise if Unemployment Rate Drop Stokes Wage Inflation Bets
• Aussie Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains if US Jobs Data Fuels Risk Aversion

All eyes are on the March set of US Employment in the final hours of the trading week. A 248,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is expected. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.5 percent, a figure broadly associated with “full employment” (a level such that reducing joblessness further would pressure inflation upward).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 APRIL 2015


• British Pound May Decline if Soft PMI Data Undermines BOE Policy Outlook
• Australian Dollar Rallies After RBA Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged at 2.25%

UK Services PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations suggest the pace of activity growth in the non-manufacturing sector will modestly accelerate in March. UK economic news-flow has tended to disappoint relative to consensus forecast recently, warning that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push out bets on a Bank of England interest rate hike further into the future, weighing on the British Pound. As it stands, futures markets are pricing in expectations for the central bank to begin dialing back stimulus in the first quarter of 2016.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 APRIL 2015

• US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes
• New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction cues. Traders will be keen for confirmation of the dovish shift in timing bets on the first post-QE rate hike. Futures markets reveal a lean toward an increase in October after Friday’s dismal payrolls data, a far cry from earlier speculation about June or July.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 APRIL 2015

• Bank of England Rate Decision May Be a Non-Event for the British Pound
• US Dollar Gains as Policy Outlook Firms After March Fed Meeting Minutes

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Governor Mark Carney and company are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Indeed, futures markets price in no change in policy until the first quarter of next year.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 APRIL 2015

• US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for Guidance Amid Fed Policy Speculation
• Canadian Dollar Down Before Jobs Data in Otherwise Quiet Overnight Trade

The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours, leaving traders wait for the day’s helping of official Fed commentary to offer direction cues. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker – a member of the rate-setting FOMC committee – is due to cross the wires.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 APRIL 2015

• Australian, New Zealand Dollars Tumble as Chinese Trade Data Disappoints
• Bets on China Stimulus Boost May Fuel Risk-On Sentiment, Send Yen Lower

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 1.0 and 0.86 percent on average against their leading counterparts. The selloff followed a disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures that showed exports slumped 15 percent year-on-year in March, falling dramatically short of expectations calling for a 9 percent increase and yielding the largest drawdown in over a year.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 APRIL 2015

• British Pound May Rise if Upbeat Core CPI Figures Boost BOE Rate Outlook
• US Dollar to Extend Advance if Retail Sales Data Drives Fed Rate Hike Bets

UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain at 1.2 percent in March, unchanged from the prior month. UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks however, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may boost Bank of England rate hike speculation and send the British Pound higher. We remain short EURGBP.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 APRIL 2015

• US Dollar Rebounds, Aussie Dollar Drops on RBA Rate Cut Bets Overnight
• Euro May Rise if ECB President Draghi Hints QE Program Can Be Cut Short

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective after the greenback suffered its largest drawdown in two weeks over the preceding 24 hours following a disappointing US Retail Sales report. The Australian Dollar proved weakest on the session. The move played out alongside a drop in front-end yields, pointing to building RBA rate cut expectations as a likely catalyst behind selling pressure.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 APRIL 2015

• Aussie Dollar Soars as Jobs Data Tops Forecasts, Denting RBA Rate Cut Bets
• US Dollar Looks to Fed Commentary for a Lifeline After Two Days of Losses

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed sharply better than expected set of labor market figures. The economy added 37,700 jobs in March, topping estimates for a meager 15,000 increase, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a three-month low of 6.1 percent. The Aussie’s move higher tracked a parallel surge in front-end bond yields, suggesting traders interpreted the upbeat improvement on the employment front as reducing the scope for on-coming RBA interest rate cuts.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 APRIL 2015


• British Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Driver in March Jobless Claims Data
• US CPI Figures Probably Don’t Have Scope to Meaningfully Boost US Dollar

UK Jobless Claims data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations point to a 25.5k drop in applications for benefits. Such an outcome would fall broadly on-trend and so seems unlikely to generate a significant response from the British Pound in that it would do little to augment investors’ BOE policy outlook. Traders will likely have to wait for the release of minutes from the central bank’s April meeting next week for the next major inflection point on the domestic front.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 APRIL 2015

• Commodity Dollars Soar After China Issues 100bps RRR Cut for Top Banks
• Japanese Yen Gains Amid Risk Aversion, Euro Declines on Greece Jitters
• US Dollar Looks to Dudley Comments to Drive Rates “Liftoff” Speculation

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade after China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio for major banks by 100bps to 18.5 percent over the weekend, bringing it to the lowest level since December 2010. Markets probably interpreted stimulus expansion as potentially supportive for growth and commodity demand, which may bode well for cross-border sales and thereby overall performance (with the requisite benefits to the monetary policy outlook) for raw materials exporters.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 APRIL 2015

• Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in German ZEW Report
• Commodity Currencies, US Dollar Respond to Policy Outlooks

Germany’s ZEW Survey of analyst confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to rise to 55.3, putting sentiment at the highest level in 14 months. A rosy outcome seems unlikely to offer a meaningful lift to the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy.

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