Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 FEBRUARI 2015

• British Pound May Rise as BOE Testimony Fuels Rate Hike Speculation
• US Dollar Disproportionately Vulnerable to Losses on Yellen Comments
• RBNZ Survey Puts Inflation Outlook at 15-Year Low, Sinks Kiwi Dollar

Bank of England monetary policy expectations will be in focus in European trading hours as Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and MPC committee member Martin Weale testify about the latest quarterly Inflation Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hawkish-sounding document triggered a rebuilding of rate hike expectations (as expected) when it was unveiled and more of the same may boost the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 FEBRUARI 2015

• Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Rise on Swelling Risk Appetite and Chinese PMI Report
• US Dollar May Fall if Second Day of Yellen Testimony Dents Rates Outlook

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 and 0.4 percent, as stocks advanced in Asian trade and drove demand for the sentiment-linked currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 0.3 percent, following an ascent on Wall Street. The news-wires pinned the move as a response to testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen earlier in the day, suggesting investors took solace in the central bank chief’s view that baseline borrowing costs won’t rise for the next “couple of [FOMC] meetings”.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 FEBRUARI 2016

• Euro, Pound Unlikely to Find Volatility in UK GDP and German Jobs Data
• US Dollar May Decline if Soft Core CPI Weighs on Fed Rate Hike Outlook
• Australian Dollar Down as Weak Capex Report Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. A marginal improvement on German Unemployment figures is unlikely to prove formative for the Euro considering its limited implications for ECB monetary policy as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

The same is likely for revised of fourth-quarter UK GDP data. The British Pound did not yield a strong response to this week’s testimony from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, suggesting near-term policy bets are well priced into the market. That means anything shy of a game-changing revision is unlikely to trigger an outsized response from Sterling.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 FEBRUARI 2015

• Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms
• Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward

Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.3 percent drawdown in February following a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MAART 2015

• Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Markets Await Launch of ECB QE Program
• US Dollar May Decline if Soft ISM Data Undermines Fed Rate Hike Outlook
• Canadian Dollar Gains, Aussie Drops Before BOC and RBA Policy Meetings

Eurozone flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.5 percent drawdown in February following a 0.6 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE this month.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 MAART 2015

• Aussie Dollar Soars After RBA Unexpectedly Leaves Rates Unchanged
• NZ Dollar Higher on Upbeat Commodity Exports, House Price Figures
• British Pound May Not Find Support in Upbeat Construction PMI Data

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts, after the RBA unexpected opted not to cut interest rates again at today’s monetary policy meeting. Economists were projecting a 25bps reduction while priced-in expectations reflected the implied probability of further easing at 60 percent. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens left the door open to future stimulus expansion however, saying the central bank will “assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings”.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 MAART 2015

• US Dollar Follow-Through on ADP, ISM Data Outcomes May Prove Limited
• British Pound May Ignore Upside Surprise on UK Service-Sector PMI Data

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European hours. February’s UK Services PMI reading headlines the docket, with expectations pointing to a slight acceleration in sector activity growth. An upside surprise may be in the cards considering UK news-flow has tended to outperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. That may not mean much for the British Pound however. Indeed, prices broadly similar outcomes on Manufacturing and Construction PMIs earlier in the week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 MAART 2015

• Euro May Bounce as Status-Quo ECB Announcement Triggers Profit-Taking
• Bank of England Rate Decision May Amount to Non-Event for British Pound

Monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank headline the economic calendar in the hours ahead. While the former may prove to be a non-event – leaving the British Pound rudderless in the near term – the latter has scope to trigger a response from the Euro despite the absence of materially new policy updates.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 MAART 2015

• US Dollar May Fall as Japanese Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures
• Aussie Dollar Edges Upward Alongside Australian Bond Yields Overnight

All eyes are on February’s US Employment figures through the end of the trading week. Expectations point to a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, marking slight slowdown compared with the 257,000 increase recorded in January. US economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since late December, hinting analysts are overestimating the vigor of the economy. That opens the door for a downside surprise.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MAART 2015

• US Dollar Continues to Soar, Sets Another 11-Year High
• S&P 500 Issues the Largest Daily Drawdown in 6 Weeks
• Gold Drops Most in 15 Months, Crude Oil Hints at Top


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices look poised to continue higher after prices put in the largest daily advance in six weeks. Near-term resistance is at 12107, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 12221. Alternatively, a below the 23.6% Fib at 11965 opens the door for a challenge of the 11854-76 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, March 2009 high).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 MAART 2015

• US Dollar Soars on Fed Rate Outlook, Aussie and NZ Dollars Underperform
• British Pound Might Find Support as BOE’s Carney Drives Tightening Bets

The US Dollar resumed pushing higher in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Firming interest rate hike expectations appeared to be behind the move. Fed Funds futures rose to hint the FOMC may deliver as many as two increases in the target range for the baseline lending rate by year-end. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of the greenback’s advance, sinking as much as 0.9 and 1.1 percent respectively.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 MAART 2015

• Euro, Japanese Yen Looking to Greek Debt Negotiations for Direction Cues
• Aussie and NZ Dollars Slide on Risk Aversion, Soft Chinese Economic Data

Greece is in the spotlight once again in European trading hours. Officials from Athens are due to meet with representatives of the so-called “institutions” – the EU, ECB and IMF – in an attempt to avoid a cash crunch. The government faces €4.3 billion in T-Bill redemptions and a maturing loan of €1.2 billion to the IMF just this month. Without a deal to unlock a €7.2 billion aid tranche, Greece may run out of money in a matter of weeks. That portends default and could pave the way for an exit from the Eurozone.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 MAART 2015

• Soft Retail Sales Data May Cool Fed Rate Hike Bets, Push US Dollar Lower
• NZ Dollar Soars on RBNZ Rate Decision, Aussie Recovers on Jobs Report

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to February’s US Retail Sales report. Consensus forecasts call for 0.3 percent increase, which would mark the strongest outcome in three months. Last week’s payrolls data notwithstanding however, US economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to expectations since late December. This warns that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may cool Fed rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 MAART 2015

• US Dollar Pullback May Resume on Soft PPI, Consumer Confidence Data
• Australian Dollar Underperforms in Asia, Tracking ASX/S&P 200 Decline

The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appears corrective after the greenback produced its largest daily drawdown in a month in the prior session. The Australian Dollar underperformed, sliding as much as 0.4 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop in Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind the decline in the sentiment-sensitive currency.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 MAART 2015

• Kiwi Dollar Outperforms as Asian Stock Exchanges Shake Off Early Losses
• Swiss Franc May Rise if PPI Tops Forecasts, Cooling SNB Stimulus Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a rebound on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to firming risk appetite as the catalyst behind the advance of the sentiment-sensitive currency. Regional bourses initially swooned, seemingly following the negative lead from Friday’s performance on Wall Street, but swiftly recovered ground. The correlation between NZDUSD and the MSCI World Stock Index is now 0.91 (on rolling 20-day studies).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 MAART 2015

• Improving German ZEW Survey Data Unlikely to Offer Support to the Euro
• NZ Dollar Gains on Risk Appetite as Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Higher

The German ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to rise to 59.4 in March, marking the fifth consecutive advance and the highest level in 14 months. An upbeat outcome will not change the ECB’s dovish posture however, and may even owe its existence to the central bank’s stimulus expansion. With that in mind, such a result is unlikely to boost the Euro.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 MAART 2015

• US Dollar, Yen May Rise as Commodity Dollars Decline on FOMC Outcome
• British Pound May Move Lower on Bank of England March Meeting Minutes

Currency markets were left treading water overnight as traders withheld directional conviction ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. This time around, the policy statement will be accompanied by an updated set of economic forecasts from the rate-setting FOMC committee and a press conference from Chair Janet Yellen.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 MAART 2015

• US Dollar Validates Chart Setup, Turns Sharply Lower
• S&P 500 Accelerates Upward, Aiming for February Top
• Gold, Crude Oil Try to Break Near-Term Down Trends


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected, making good on bearish cues telegraphed through negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is at 11965, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 11854-78 area (March 2009 high, 14.6% level). Alternatively, a move above the 12107-49 zone (38.2% Fib, March 13 high) clears the way for a test of the 50% expansion at 12221.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSLE 20 MAART 2015

- Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Hold at Annualized 1.0% for Second-Month.
- Core Inflation to Slip to 2.1%- Slowest Pace of Growth Since November 2014.

Another contraction in Canada Retail Sales paired with a slowdown in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may trigger a near-term breakout in USD/CAD as it fuels speculation for another Bank of Canada (BOC) rate cut in 2015.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 MAART 2015

• Euro May Rise if Signs of Breakthrough Emerge at Merkel / Tsipras Meeting
• US Dollar Looks to “Fed-Speak” for Direction, Fischer and Williams on Tap

All eyes are on Berlin in European trading hours as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meet to discuss securing a deal on the Mediterranean country’s financing deal. Increasingly aggressive saber-rattling from both countries has elevated tensions in recent weeks. Posturing aside however, both sides still appear vested in securing an accord. With that in mind, the Euro may rise if signs of a breakthrough emerge at today’s sit-down.

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