Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 MEI 2015

• British Pound May Fall if BOE Minutes Pour Cold Water on Rate Hike Bets
• US Dollar to Advance if Fed Meeting Minutes Dent Markets’ Dovish Outlook

Minutes from May’s Bank of England policy meeting are in focus in European trading hours. Last week’s quarterly Inflation Report revealed that the central bank is assuming its first post-crisis interest rate hike will occur around mid-2016. That is significantly later than what is being implied by priced-in market expectations. Indeed, futures market pricing implies lift-off in the first quarter of next year. If the Minutes document shines light on this disparity, investors may well have to adjust expectations outward, sending the British Pound lower.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 MEI 2015

• Euro May Look Past Soft PMIs as ECB Minutes Dent Stimulus Expansion Bets
• US Dollar Corrects Lower as FOMC Minutes Fail to Boost Rate Hike Outlook

May’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI figures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. The region-wide Composite measure is expected to print at 53.9, implying the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth held steady compared with the prior month. News-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks however, opening the door for a downside surprise.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 MEI 2015

• Euro Unlikely to Yield Follow-Through on German IFO Survey Outcome
• US Dollar May Decline Even if US CPI Data Tops Economists’ Forecasts

The German IFO survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected edge lower for a second consecutive month, hitting the weakest level since February. The outcome is unlikely to drive significant Euro volatility considering its limited implications for near-term monetary policy. Indeed, as we expected, minutes from April’s ECB meeting showed policymakers saw no need to consider changing their current stance (contrary to speculation following comments from Governing Council member Benoit Coeure earlier in the week).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 MEI 2015

• Aussie Dollar Gains Alongside Chinese Stocks, Euro Drops on Greece Jitters
• US Dollar Looks to Economic Data, Fed-Speak to Guide Rate Hike Outlook

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, tracking an advance on China’s Shanghai Composite stock index. The equity benchmark rose for a sixth consecutive day to the highest level in over 7 years. Newswires chalked up the move to follow-through on last week’s announcement of the “Made in China 2025” plan, a 10-year effort meant to upgrade the manufacturing sector. Traders may have bet that the program will benefit Australia – for whom China is the leading export market – and its pivotal mining sector.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 MEI 2015

• Dollar Rally Extends And Breaks Key Levels Along the Way
• Euro: Greece Risk of an Accident Growing
• Japanese Yen Pairs Conviction Uneven but USDJPY Propelled to 7-Year High

Dollar Rally Extends And Breaks Key Levels Along the Way
The Dollar started a strong move through the close of the past week. The strongest weekly launch for the Greenback in nearly two years was a convincing effort from a currency that spent the previous five weeks in retreat. There was only one problem: an extended holiday weekend in the US and a few other key financial centers (UK, Germany, Hong Kong) threatened to thin the ranks and suffocate speculative momentum. Monday’s session was certainly lacking for conviction, but it didn’t encourage the recent swell in speculative interests to simply abandon their post. And, when liquidity filled out this past session, the world’s most liquid currency picked up where it left off.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 MEI 2015

• Australian Dollar Down as Capex Slump Fuels RBA Rate Cut Speculation
• British Pound May Not Find Follow-Through in Revised UK GDP Figures
• News-Flow from G7 Meeting Eyed for Guidance on Greece Funding Woes

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a disappointing first-quarter Private Capital Expenditure reading.

The report showed capex spending fell 4.4 percent in the first three months of the year, marketing the largest drawdown since the third quarter of 2009. The currency’s decline tracked a drop in Australian front-end bond yields, suggesting the soft data set fueled RBA rate cut speculation.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 MEI 2015

• Yet another round of Fed officials reiterated their belief that a 2015 hike was probable
• The Dollar has gained as data and rhetoric builds hike speculation, but Friday's GDP carries decisiveness
• Euro gains flout discouraging Greek headlines and Yen crosses can be torn down by an equity reversal

The Dollar's climb continued this past session as Fed members Williams and Bullard echoed the belief that a 2015 FOMC hike is probable. That contradicts what the market is projecting in Fed Fund futures and thereby presents speculative opportunity in fundamental disparity. We will see a key indicator attempt to reconcile the interest rate debate cross the wires today: the US GDP release.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 JUNI 2015

EUR/USD Faces Week Flush with Event-Driven Volatility
While EURUSD was pressured into fresh monthly lows just above $1.0800, a late-week rally in the EUR-crosses wiped out nearly all losses accumulated earlier across the spectrum. Dodging disparaging headlines about Greece’s ability to reach consensus with her creditors, EURUSD only closed -0.10% lower at $1.0990, while EURAUD and EURJPY led the EUR-crosses higher by +2.22% and +2.02%, respectively.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 JUNI 2015

• Euro to Look Past May Inflation Data, Focus on Greece-Related News Flow
• Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Disappoints Bets on Dovish Shift in Rhetoric

The preliminary set of May Eurozone CPIfigures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.2 percent, the highest in six months. The outcome seems unlikely to meaningfully drive the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy bets.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 JUNI 2015

• Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at Presser Following ECB Rate Decision
• British Pound Eyes UK PMI Data to Inform BOE Interest Rate Hike Outlook
• Australian Dollar Gains as Upbeat GDP Data Undercuts RBA Rate Cut Bets

A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. A change in policy seems overwhelmingly unlikely, with the monetary authority seemingly on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60/month QE effort. That puts the spotlight on ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference following the rate decision. Greece-related commentary is likely to take top billing, with traders particularly keen to learn the details of a last-ditch funding deal offer made by Athens’ creditors yesterday.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 JUNI 2015

• FX Markets to Look Past BOE Rate Decision, Focus on Greece News-Flow
• Australian Dollar Down After Soft Data Revives RBA Interest Rate Cut Bets

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours but seems unlikely to generate a significant from the British Pound. The central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report hinted no rate cuts would materialize until mid-2016. Policymakers don’t release an explanatory statement absent a change in policy, meaning today’s outing will probably prove to be a non-event.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 JUNI 2015

• US Dollar: Path of Least Resistance Favors Weakness on May Payrolls Data
• Euro Underperforms in Quiet Asia Trade as Greece Delays IMF Repayment

Most major currencies were little-changed in overnight trade as traders withheld directional conviction ahead of the upcoming release of May’s US Employmentreport. The economy is expected to have added 226,000 jobs last month, marking a miniscule improvement from the 223,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.4 percent.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 JUNI 2015

• US Dollar Targeting June Swing High as Recovery Accelerates
• S&P 500 Continues to Decline After Snapping 2-Month Uptrend
• Crude Oil Stalls at Trend Support, Gold Drops to 3-Month Low


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices areaccelerating upward anew, with prices on pace to challenge monthly highs. Near-term resistance is at 12018, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 12067. Alternatively, a turn below the 236% Fib at 11959 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 11922.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 JUNI 2015

• Revised 1Q Eurozone GDP Figures Unlikely to Generate Significant Volatility
• Euro Focused on Greece-Linked News Flow as Funding Deal Remains Elusive

The second revision of first-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The release is expected to confirm flash estimates showing output added 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

Absent a particularly sharp deviation, the outcome seems unlikely to generate a significant response from the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. The central bank seems to be on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 JUNI 2015

• Japanese Yen Soars as Aussie Dollar Gains on BOJ and RBA Comments
• Greece News-Flow in Focus as Tsipras Meets Merkel, Hollande for Talks

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade after BOJ Governor Kuroda said it was “hard to see [the currency’s] real effective rate falling further,” adding that it can’t be assumed that the unit will weaken following a Fed interest rate hike. Kuroda likewise repeated that the QQE stimulus effort will continue until inflation is stable at 2 percent, stressing that the program is not on a calendar-based schedule. The Yen added over 1 percent on average against its top counterparts.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 JUNI 2015

• US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Retail Sales Report Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets
• Yen Corrects Lower After Surge, NZ Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Delivers Rate Cut

A lull in high-profile scheduled event risk on the European front is likely to see investors looking ahead to May’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 1.2 percent, marking the largest gain in 14 months.

US economic news-flow has increasingly firmed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may fuel bets on a sooner Fed interest rate hike, boosting the US Dollar. As it stands, futures markets price in the first post-QE increase in the benchmark lending rate in October.


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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 JUNI 2015

• US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat PPI, UofM Figures Boost Fed Rate Hike Bets
• Australian Dollar Edges Lower Alongside S&P/ASX 200 in Overnight Trade

Another quiet day on the European economic data front is likely to keep the spotlight on US economic news-flow through the end of the trading week. May’s PPI figures and June’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge are on tap. Core wholesale inflation is expected to edge narrowly lower to 0.7 year-on-year, marking the weakest reading in almost five years. Meanwhile, the sentiment gauge is seen moving higher to 91.2 after printing a six-month low at 90.7 in May.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 JUNI 2015

- EURJPY may be pulling back to a key technical level that will determine the viability of the breakout.
- Meanwhile, EURUSD has yet to breakdown through support that would accelerate a breakdown.
- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

After a strong start to June, the Euro cooled off in the second week of trading as Euro-Zone data momentum eased, fears over a Greek default and/or exit from the Euro-Zone cropped up amid a breakdown in negotiations, and optimism over the US economy in Q2’15 gained pace. EURUSD finished but off of its highs, up +1.35% to $1.1266; EURJPY fell by -0.44% to ¥139.02 on the back of commentary from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda; and EURGBP dipped by -0.53% to £0.7205.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 JUNI 2015

• British Pound Looks to UK CPI Data to Direct BOE Interest Rate Hike Bets
• Australian Dollar Down as June RBA Minutes Reveal Call for Depreciation

May’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 1 percent, rebounding from the 14-year low recorded in the prior month and snapping a three-month deceleration streak. Leading surveys appear to support the case for an improvement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 JUNI 2015


• US Dollar, Yen May Rise as FOMC Hints at Sooner-Than-Expected Rate Hike
• Pound at Risk on BOE Meeting Minutes But Follow-Through May Disappoint

The Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement is firmly in focus. June’s sit-down will feature the expanded quarterly meeting format, with the policy statement accompanied by an updated set of economic forecasts from the FOMC rate-setting committee and a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen. Needless to say, investors will be acutely focused on what the outcome will mean for evolving speculation about the timing of the first post-QE interest rate hike. As it stands, Fed Funds futures price in the onset of tightening in October.

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