Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 AUGUSTUS 2015

• The combination of US CPI and the FOMC minutes passed with a slightly more dovish view for the Dollar
• Despite a lower probability of a September Fed hike, the Dollar held support while stocks still dropped
• China market and Greek headlines were also tempting bulls but falling short of true optimism

With pairs like AUDUSD and GBPUSD leaning heavily on resistance (Dollar support), the FOMC minutes this past session cooled near-term hike forecasts. Despite that bearish fundamental push, neither pair made the effort to clear its technical ceiling.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 AUGUSTUS 2015

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI missed forecast, induced risk-off trades, dampened commodities
• Gold scored big gains as safe-haven bids added to rate delay bets
• Oil dragged as supply glut and China slowdown prevail
• Copper weak from demand risk after low USD caused overnight gains

At mid-morning in Asia, the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August was released at a disappointing 47.1, lower than the forecast of 48.2 and prior figure of 47.8. The gauge is a main indicator of the health of Chinese economy which also transpires to a market driver for commodities. Oil, copper and industrial metals deepened their losses, while gold added gains from safe-haven interests.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Chinese manufacturing gauge at six-year low provoked routs in equities, commodities
• Oil’s fall may intensify below critical levels, global glut unabated
• Copper stressed by Chinese stock rout
• Gold sustained safe haven interests though paused on its climb as commodities dip

Asia Pacific market started the week heavy on risk-off trades following last week’s stock rout and Chinese manufacturing gauge at a six-year low. Gloomy prospect of Chinese economy has provoked massive selling of stocks, commodities and to a lesser extent commodity currencies. Simultaneously, investors rushed to haven assets like USD, JPY, CHF, also gold and government bonds.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Risk aversion sweeps the market, showing extreme volatility and volume across asset classes
• The S&P 500 has seen its biggest three-day selloff and futures volume swell in 4 years
• Equities and Yen crosses may have far more deleveraging ahead of them than other areas

Risk aversion turned severe for certain corners of the financial system to start this week. In particular, equities faced extraordinary selling pressure which led to dramatic declines in stock benchmarks and the volatility indexes that are derived from their options. However, the threat likely runs deeper than just this recent aggressive drop reflects. While we can look at individual stocks, currencies or asset classes and identify factors to show how over-leveraged it might be; there is a systemic exposure that speaks more broadly to the risks that the market faces. And, to truly appreciate how much more selling we may face, it is important to understand the position of sentiment.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Yen, Euro Drop on China Stimulus But Risk Appetite Boost May Be Fleeting
• US Durables Data, Fed Commentary in Focus as Markets Look for Guidance

The Japanese Yen and the Euro faced selling pressure in overnight trade as stocks recovered across Asian bourses, reflecting a recovery in risk appetite. Both units had capitalized on slumping sentiment earlier in the week amid the unwinding of carry trades funded in the two low-yielding currencies. On the other side of the spectrum, the risk-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars traded higher.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Rebuild
• 2Q US GDP Revision May Boost US Dollar, Trigger Renewed Risk Aversion

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency briefly popped higher after the second-quarter capex report revealed an upgrade to the 2015-16 outlook, but sellers swiftly retook the initiative. Prices declined alongside Australian front-end bond yields, hinting the move reflected continued deterioration in RBA policy bets. Traders are pricing in at least one 25bps reduction in the cash rate over the coming 12 months.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Stock gains extended throughout yesterday as the global economy takes a step back from the ledge.
• Fed policy and communication are proving of vital importance to equity performance, and the Jackson Hole Summit this weekend gives the Fed a chance to communicate support to markets.
• A heavy week of data next week combined with a national holiday in China on September 3rd and 4th and Labor Day in the United States on September 7th, make for a potentially volatile environment.

1. Risk was most definitely ‘on’ throughout most of the trading day yesterday. Led by gains in China, global equity markets popped higher with aggressive price action on the premise that the global economy isn’t melting down; at least not right now, anyways.

The Chinese trading session was quite similar to the day prior, in which stocks stayed within a relatively well-defined range for the early portion of the session, only to see a late-stage ramp ahead of the close. The Shanghai Composite (shcomp) closed higher by +4.82% and the Shenzhen Composite (szcomp) was up by +5.4%. This pop on the Shanghai Composite puts in the index back in positive territory year-to-date, showing a 1.38% return for 2015 (49.69% year-over-year).

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Euro, Yen Rise as News-Flow from Jackson Hole Fuels Risk Aversion Anew
• New Zealand Dollar Underperforms as Business Confidence Hits 6-Year Low
• Eurozone CPI May Reveal Markets’ Outlook for ECB Policy Announcement

The Euro and the Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as risk aversion swept financial markets anew. The slump in sentiment appeared to drive the unwinding of carry trades funded in the two low-yielding currencies.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 SEPTEMBER 2015

• RBA leaves cash rate at 2 percent as expected
• Australian Dollar little-changed versus USD
• Policy statement tone remains broadly neutral

The Australian Dollar was left little-changed versus its US counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark lending rate at 2 percent. All 27 of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the central bank would not make an adjustment at its September meeting. The RBA has now left rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 SEPTEMBER 2015

• US Dollar, Euro and Yen May Rise as US Data Triggers Risk Aversion Anew
• Commodity Dollars Rise as Sentiment Trends Correct After Rout Overnight

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollarsrose amid a broad-based risk appetiterecovery in overnight trade. Meanwhile, the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen faced selling pressure as most financial markets traced out a correction following yesterday’s widespread rout. The Aussie lagged its commodity-bloc peers as disappointing second-quarter GDP data fueled RBA rate cut speculation, undermining momentum.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Euro, Market-Wide Sentiment in the Balance on ECB Policy Announcement
• Australian Dollar Down on Soft Retail Sales Data, Yen Sold as Risk Recovers

The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank has entered the spotlight. With the Greece fiasco now on the backburner, traders will focus on the possibility that policymakers are mulling an expansion of stimulus efforts.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 SEPTEMBER 2015

• US Dollar, Yen May Rise as Payrolls Data Fuels Fed Rate Hike Speculation
• Australian, Canadian and NZ Dollars Drop as Risk Aversion Returns in Asia

Risk aversion returned in Asian trade, sinking the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while boosting the safety-geared Japanese Yen. The Euro put in a mixed performance, rising against overtly risk-anchored currencies but underperforming other anti-risk alternatives. The single currency’s ability to capitalize on carry trade liquidation was probably complicated by lingering negativity after the ECB opened the door for monetary stimulus expansion at yesterday’s policy meeting.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Australian Dollar Gains, Yen Falls Amid Correction in Risk Sentiment Trends
• Thin Liquidity May Amplify Knee-Jerk Volatility, Undermine Follow-Through

The sentiment-geared Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade while the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded higher as the markets corrected following Friday’s bout of risk aversion in the wake of Augusts’ US jobs report. The figures showed that world’s largest economy added 173,000 jobs last month, falling short of economists’ expectations calling for a 217,000 increase. The outcome appeared to fuel worries about slowing global growth.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Yen and US Dollar Drop in Tandem as Dovish Fed Outlook Shift Boosts Risk
• S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Hint Overnight Dynamics Poised to Continue

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade in what appeared to be an improvement in risk appetite. Traders shrugged off a worrisome set of Chinese trade figures that showed the largest imports drop in three months (-13.8% y/y), a possible sign of slowing demand in the world’s second-largest economy, apparently opting to focus on US monetary policy expectations instead.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Commodity Dollars Gains, Japanese Yen Declines as Risk Appetite Firms
• S&P 500 Index Futures Hint Risk-On Sentiment Likely to Carry Forward

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rallied as risk appetite firmed in overnight trade. The Japanese Yen weakened as the firming sentiment undercut demand for the safety-linked currency.

Asian shares soared in a move the news-wires chalked up to firming confidence in Chinese officials’ ability to stabilize on-shore markets. Data released over the weekend showed Chinese FX reserves fell by US$93.9 billion in August – the most since at least 1996 – to telegraph Beijing’s willingness to commit resources toward pushing back against recent turmoil.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 SEPTEMBER 2015

• The Australian Dollar gained more than 0.6% versus its US namesake
• The country added more jobs than expected, Chinese CPI also released
• Government bond yields reflect decreased RBA rate cut expectations

The Australian Dollar gained more than 0.6 percent versus its US counterpart after August’s Employment data crossed the wires. Economists were expecting the country to add 5K jobs in the month of August; actual figures topped expectations at 17.4K jobs added. Most of the jobs gained came from the full-time figures (+11.5K). Australia added 5.9K part-time jobs in August. The Unemployment and Participation rate remained unchanged at 6.2 percent and 65.0 percent respectively.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Yen Down on Risk Trends as NZ Dollar Corrects After RBNZ-Driven Plunge
• Canadian Dollar on the Upswing as Crude Oil Moves Higher in Asia Trade
• US Dollar Looks to PPI, UofM Survey Data to Help Shape Fed Policy Bets

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite firmed, sapping demand for the safety-linked currency. The bulk of the move played out as Japanese stock exchanges came online for the day. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index gapped lower on the open but immediately raced higher, adding nearly 1.1 percent within the first 20 minutes of trade. The move may have reflected optimism following a supportive BSI business confidence survey showed sentiment among large firms soared to the highest level in a year despite recent market turmoil.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 SEPTEMBER 2015

- EURUSD holds above $1.1300 after better EZ production data.
- AUDUSD, NZDUSD lead high yield FX reversal.

Realistically, the Fed realistically has one of two options this week, and neither bode well for the US Dollar.

The first option would be for the Fed to raise rates, and announce that it would not do so again until its inflation half of the dual mandate is met. FX markets continually discount future policy actions, and an indication that the Fed wouldn’t be looking to raise rates any time soon would undermine the US Dollar.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Oil dipped on BOJ’s gloomy assessments; OPEC projected lower demand in 2016
• Gold moved sideways as market seemed ready for FOMC decision
• Copper steadied though fragile on downside

Oil and copper steadily rose during New York and early Asian sessions until losses in the Shanghai stock exchange prompted a reversal. Risk assets were further dragged down before Asian noon time as the Bank of Japan’s meeting statement read negatively on output, exports and overseas economies.

Rest van het artikel

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 SEPTEMBER 2015

- The British Pound gained 0.5% versus the US Dollar after today’s UK labor data.
- The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5%.
- Average Earnings Index rose by 2.9%.

The British Pound gained half of one percent versus its US counterpart after today's UK employment data, providing more evidence that the British labor market is in good health. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5% in July, below the 5.6% expected, with the country adding 42K jobs, subsequently raising the number of people employed to 31.1 million.

Rest van het artikel