Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 SEPTEMBER 2015

• US Dollar to Rise on Hawkish Rhetoric Even if FOMC Forgoes a Rate Hike
• Outright Tightening to Weigh on “Commodity Dollars”, Boost Japanese Yen

The markets are firmly focused on the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting in the hours ahead. The split in economists’ expectations for the likely outcome is nearly even. A survey of 113 Fed-watchers polled by Bloomberg reveals a 59-54 preference for rates to remain unchanged this time around. The markets themselves are a bit more skewed in their priced-in outlook. Fed funds futures imply a 32 percent chance of a rate hike while OIS-based measures dismiss the possibility of such an outcome altogether.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Australian, NZ Dollars Rebound as Euro Falls Amid Post-FOMC Correction
• S&P 500 Futures Hint Risk-On Mood Likely into the End of the Trading Week

Currency markets were in corrective mode in overnight trade. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed having trailed their major counterparts in the prior session. Meanwhile, the Euro tracked lower after seeing standout gains in the preceding 24 hours. The single currency pushed higher as commodity bloc FX weakened into yesterday’s close as risk aversion broke out in the aftermath of the FOMC monetary policy announcement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 SEPTEMBER 2015

- High yielding and emerging market currencies in focus today.
- Base case is for no rate hike, lower rate guidance.
- See the September forex seasonality report.

After the Federal Reserve's non-decision last week, traders are already looking to other central banks to step up their easing efforts. While the Bank of Japan seems like an obvious choice given the country's struggle to find consistent growth and stable inflation, market attention seems to be focusing more closely on the European Central Bank in the direct aftermath of the Fed.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Euro, Japanese Yen Look to Risk Sentiment Trends for New Direction Cues
• British Pound at Risk if Comments from BOE’s Shafik Trim Rate Hike Bets
• See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Financial markets settled into digestion mode overnight as a quiet economic data docket left traders without an immediate catalyst to fuel continued volatility. The US Dollar corrected cautiously lower having broadly outperformed in the prior session. The move higher followed hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who stressed that the US central bank remains on track to begin raising interest rates this year.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 SEPTEMBER 2015

• China’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI for September printed a reading of 47.0
• The Aussie fell 0.7 percent against the US Dollar
• The data adds to global growth concerns as well as dovish expectations for the Fed and RBA

The Australian Dollar fell nearly 0.7 percent against its US counterpart Wednesday morning after the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September raised expectations for a further slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. The gauge of China factory sector health posted a reading of 47.0 versus the 47.5 projected. That is the lowest reading from the series since 2009. It is important to note that any figure below 50 represents a contraction in the sector – and thereby adds to concerns that the Chinese economy will continue to slow moving forward.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 SEPTEMBER 2015

• The Euro little changed versus the US Dollar
• Targeted LTRO at 15.5B, below prior 73.8B
• Market awaits US data to initiate new positions

The Euro was little changed versus the US Dollar after today's Targeted LTRO showed decreasing demand by Euro-Zone banks for low interest rate loans. Euro-Zone’s banks bid 15.548B Euros with June figure higher at 73.8B. LTRO’s provide long term refinancing by the ECB to the financial sector by offering liquidity to banks. These low-cost loans are granted to banks on the condition that they are lent to the real economy, which usually leads to lower long-term interest rates. Lower demand for these types of loans suggests funding conditions are going back to normal as banks revert to regular market financing.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 SEPTEMBER 2015

• US Dollar May Advance as Fed Commentary Bolsters Interest Rate Hike Outlook
• Upbeat US Data May Buoy Risk Appetite Alongside USD as Growth Fears Ease

The US Dollar turned higher overnight following supportive comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The US central bank chief said a rate hike in 2015 is “likely appropriate”, adding that most on the FOMC share this view. Yellen chalked up below-target inflation to “transitory factors” and even warned that waiting too long to begin tightening may stoke excessive price growth and leverage.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 SEPTEMBER 2015

• US Dollar Looks to Fed Commentary to Inform 2015 Rate Hike Speculation
• Yen Rose on Haven Flows as Japanese Shares Declined in Overnight Trade

The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade after spiking to the highest level in over five months last week. The Japanese Yen advanced as the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index declined, driving demand for the safety-linked currency.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 SEPTEMBER 2015

Shares of commodities giant Glencore Plc plunged 28.9 percent in US trade on Monday. The move marked a dual milestone for the company, delivering the lowest daily closing price as well as the largest single-session drop since its IPO in 2011.

Glencore has trended lower alongside the broad slide in commodity prices since mid-2014. In turn, that move has tracked the sharp decline in Chinese economic growth expectations. The East Asian giant is a key source of demand for raw materials and a slowdown there has translated into steep losses across the asset class.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 SEPTEMBER 2015

• Emerging Market Portfolio Outflows Estimated at $40 Billion for 3Q 2015, Says IIF
• Capital Fleeing Top Emerging Market ETFs Shows Breadth of Investors’ Worries
• BRIC Currencies Facing Heavy Pressure, ZAR and BRL Hit Record Lows vs. USD

Emerging market capital flows were negative for a third consecutive month in September. Cumulatively, the third quarter of 2015 saw the largest outflows since the second quarter of 2008. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimated total outflows at $40 billion, with losses in emerging market equity and bond portfolios at $19 billion and $21 billion respectively.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 OKTOBER 2015

• We are heading into a new month and quarter that typically sees a jump in volume and volatility leverage trend
• After a rebound in equities Wendesday, traders are eagerly awaiting the dominant trend on risk appetite
• Yen crosses and equity indexes now have a buffer to key breaks, but the overriding pressure

The start to the fourth quarter will bring a heavy economic docket. The macro economic calendar for the upcoming session covers the kind of event risk that is capable of not only generating volatility for individual currencies and regions, but reviving broader sentiment trends as well.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 OKTOBER 2015

• US Dollar Likely to be More Response to Upbeat Jobs Data vs. the Alternative
• Risk Appetite May Firm on Strong US Payrolls Print, Hurting Euro and Yen

Investors are likely to look past a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours to focus on September’s US Employment figures. An increase of 201,000 in non-farm payrolls is expected, while the jobless rate is seen holding unchanged at 5.1 percent. That would mark an improvement over the 173,000 gain in August, which may help bolster the case for the start of Fed stimulus withdrawal in 2015.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 OKTOBER 2015

• Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Rise as US Dollar and Yen Drop After Dismal US Jobs Data
• UK, US and Eurozone PMIs Roundup to Drive Risk Sentiment Trend Development

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising alongside an advance on Asian stock exchanges. The optimism across regional bourses appeared to take its cues from Friday’s upward surge on Wall Street, a move triggered by the unwinding of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations following a dismal set of employment figures.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 OKTOBER 2015

• Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Interest Rate Hike Bets
• Aussie Dollar Gains as RBA Keeps Cash Rate at 2%, Maintains Neutral Bias

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to Fed-speak for new direction cues. Commentary from Kansas City Fed President Esther George and San Francisco Fed President John Williams is on the docket.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 OKTOBER 2015

• SF Fed President Williams still expects to raise rates this year
• Williams: Seeing some signs of domestic inflation picking up
• US Dollar little-changed despite Williams’ hawkish rhetoric

San Francisco Fed President John Williams leaned towards the hawkish side of the spectrum in a speech today, saying that he still believes interest rates can rise in 2015. The priced-in probability for a hike this year has plunged after last week’s disappointing set of US payrolls figures showed the economy added just 142,000 jobs in September.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 OKTOBER 2015

• Pound, Euro May Rise as BOE, ECB Disappoint Dovish Market Expectations
• September Fed Meeting Minutes May Boost US Dollar, Undercut Risk Appetite

The British Pound may continue higher after scoring the largest two-day advance in three weeks as the Bank of England rate decision comes across the wires. Markets will be most concerned with the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee and the tenor of rhetoric on display in the policy meeting Minutes document released alongside the announcement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 OKTOBER 2015

• World Bank & IMF Meetings Create Headline Risk, Fed-Speak May Pass Quietly
• Australian, NZ Dollars Rise as Asian Markets Respond to Dovish FOMC Minutes

A quiet economic data docket through the end of the trading week will keep the spotlight on central bank commentary. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans are scheduled to speak.

Markets have already head from both policymakers in the aftermath of last month’s rate decision. Mr Lockhart has continued to call for “liftoff” this year while Mr Evans has taken a predictably dovish posture, preferring to wait until next year.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 OKTOBER 2015

• US Dollar Down After Fed Vice Chair Fischer Hedges 2015 Rate Hike Bets
• Fed-Speak Remains in Focus Ahead, Brainard Commentary May Stand Out

The US Dollar traded broadly lower following comments from the Federal Reserve’s Stanley Fischer over the weekend. While the Vice Chair repeated the now-familiar forecast of a rate hike in 2015 – a view apparently shared by most on the FOMC but largely dismissed by the markets – he went to great lengths to hedge the bet.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 OKTOBER 2015

• AUDUSD falls more than 0.4 percent in early Asia trade
• Chinese imports, in Yuan terms, fall to a new 4 month low
• Australian 2 year government bond yields decline fueling RBA rate cut bets

The Australian Dollar fell more than 0.4 percent against the US Dollar after September’s Chinese trade data crossed the wires. In Yuan terms, China’s Trade Balance topped estimates coming in at its highest level since January 2013 of 376.20b. Exports fell -1.1 percent (YoY) beating the -7.4 percent estimate. Lastly, China’s imports missed expectations and fell -17.7 percent (YoY), the most in four months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 OKTOBER 2015

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase Third Consecutive Month.
- Household Spending Has Increased Four Out of Last Eight-Months.

Another 0.2% expansion in U.S. Retail Sales may boost the appeal of the greenback and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as signs of a stronger recovery fuels expectations for a 2015 Fed rate hike.

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