Topic-icon Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

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10 years 3 months ago #9636 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 15 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 JANUARI 2016

• Aussie Drops, Yen Gains as China Helps Amplify Risk Aversion Overnight
• Canadian Dollar Sinks with Crude Oil Before UN Decision on Iran Sanctions
• US Dollar May Rise if Data Outcomes, Fed-Speak Boost Rate Hike Outlook

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged alongside Asian stock markets while the Euro and Yen outperformed amid an unwinding of carry trades positions as risk aversion struck markets overnight. Chinese news-flow appeared to amplify the selloff. Beijing weakened the Yuan by the most in a week at the daily fixing, a now-familiar source of market jitters, and posted weaker-than-expected lending figures.

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10 years 3 months ago #9643 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 18 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 JANUARI 2016

• Aussie Dollar Outperforms as Risk Appetite Recovers Across FX Markets
• Rumors Hint China May Extend Reserve Requirements to Offshore Deposits

Currency and equity markets carved out divergent paths in overnight trade. Asian bourses traded broadly lower, seemingly taking their cues from Friday’s blood-letting on Wall Street. FX looked ahead however, with the majors seemingly taking their cues from US stock index futures and reflecting a “risk-on” tone. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar is outperformed while funding currencies including the Swiss Franc, Euro and Yen faced selling pressure.

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10 years 3 months ago #9649 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 19 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 JANUARI 2016

• The British Pound was little changed versus other major currencies
• UK’s Core CPI at 1.4%, above expectations
• Headline CPI rises to 0.2% year-on-year, as expected

The British Pound was little changed versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released today, showed inflation rose above expectations in December. Headline CPI figure showed an annual rise of 0.2% percent, as was expected by economists, which was above the November reading of 0.1%.

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10 years 2 months ago #9653 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 20 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 JANUARI 2016

• The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.1%, lowest since 2006
• Core weekly earnings slowed to1.9%, above expectations
• British Pound rose versus other major currencies

The British Pound rose versus other major currencies after today's UK employment data. The Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% from September to November, below an unchanged 5.2% rate expected by economists.

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10 years 2 months ago #9655 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 21 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 JANUARI 2016

• Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Gains as China Cash Injection Stunts Risk Appetite
• Euro May Fall as Sentiment Firms if ECB Hints at Stimulus Expansion Ahead

A late-day recovery on Wall Street inspired a chipper mood in early Asian trade, with the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars trading higher alongside share prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen underperformed. The upbeat tone appears to be fading however. Shares have started to retreat and currencies are following suit, with the commodity bloc trimming gains and the Yen recovering to trade barely changed on the session having been down as much as 0.5 percent.

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10 years 2 months ago #9657 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 22 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 JANUARI 2016

• Euro May Extend Decline on Dovish Draghi Comments, Soft PMI Data
• Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise, Euro and Yen Decline as Risk Firms in Asia

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars continued to push higher after scoring dramatic gains in the preceding 24 hours, rising alongside Asian stock prices as risk appetite continued to recover around the financial markets. The anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen traded lower, with the single currency underperforming in the aftermath of yesterday’s dovish ECB policy announcement (as expected).

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10 years 2 months ago #9661 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 25 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 JANUARI 2016

• Aussie, NZ Dollars may extend rebound as Euro falls on dovish Draghi commentary
• Pound gains as BOE’s Carney hints 2016 rate hike still on tap, Loonie retraces gains

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as stocks pushed higher, offering support to the sentiment-linked currencies. The British Pound likewise strengthened following hawkish comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Friday. The central bank chief said he does not expect the outlook for economic growth to be materially changed by recent market turmoil, hinting that a 2016 rate hike may yet materialize.

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10 years 2 months ago #9667 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 26 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 JANUARI 2016

• Yen gains, Australian Dollar drops as risk aversion returns in Asia
• Dovish commentary from ECB’s Lane may help reboot risk appetite
• Pre-positioning for FOMC rate decision could bolster risk-on tone

Risk aversion returned as the driver du jour for currency markets as Asian stock exchanges followed Wall Street downward. The Yen advanced as the risk-off mood pressured carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding Japanese unit. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar underperformed.

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10 years 2 months ago #9673 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 27 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 JANUARI 2016

• Currency markets singularly focused on Fed policy announcement
• FOMC to note recent market turmoil, pro-tightening fundamentals
• Traders’ taste for wishful thinking to guide market-wide response

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement in the hours ahead. The rate-setting FOMC committee is broadly expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged this time around. Indeed, priced-in probability of an increase is a mere 14.3 percent. This puts the spotlight on the text of the statement accompanying the rate decision and the forward guidance contained therein.

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10 years 2 months ago #9674 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 28 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 JANUARI 2016

• Gold propped up by potential Fed rate hike delay, albeit volatility from profit-taking
• Oil retreats moderately as DoE crude build data presented bearish supply outlook
• Copper steadies near 2-week high thanks to China metal imports and oil’s resilience

US dollar advanced against most commodities and emerging market currencies after the Federal Reserve’s FOMC committee held interest rate band unchanged. This meeting was considered a prelude to March meeting where a rate hike may materialize. The committee’s statement opened up chances of a delay in March and made significant emphasis to global risks.

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10 years 2 months ago #9677 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 29 Januari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 JANUARI 2016

• Yen drops as Bank of Japan shocks markets with negative rate policy
• Australian, NZ Dollars follow stocks higher on firming risk appetite
• US Dollar may rise as sentiment sours if US GDP data outperforms

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced negative interest rates into its monetary policy framework. Policymakers adopted a three-tier system akin to that of Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark: a portion of deposits at the BOJ will earn interest of 0.1 percent, the next layer will earn 0.0 percent, and the final component will be subject to a rate of -0.1 percent.

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10 years 2 months ago #9681 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 1 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 FEBRUARI 2016

- UK’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI at 52.9, above the 51.6 expected
- Firms signal EUR/GBP exchange rate as an issue
- British pound trading slightly lower after the figures hit the wires

The British Pound traded lower versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI showed manufacturing growth accelerated at the start of 2016. The manufacturing diffusion index, by Markit Economics, rose to 52.9 from December’s revised reading of 52.1. The number was above economists’ expectations of 51.6, and marked a three-months high. A number above 50 points to an expansion, below 50 to a contraction.

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10 years 2 months ago #9687 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 2 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 FEBRUARI 2016

• Commodity Dollars drop, Yen and Euro rise as RBA triggers risk aversion
• Dovish commentary from ECB and SNB officials may help uplift sentiment
• Upbeat UK PMI, hawkish Fed-speak threaten cut short any risk recovery

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed while the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen traded higher as sentiment soured in overnight trade. Investors’ mood darkened after the RBA delivered a status-quo monetary policy statement, as expected. The neutral posture undermined hopes for a further expansion of global stimulus efforts following last week’s top-up from the BOJ.

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10 years 2 months ago #9693 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 3 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 FEBRUARI 2016

- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey to Slow for Third Consecutive Month.
- Reading of 55.2 Would Mark the Lowest Print Since April 2014.

Trading the News: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing
A slowdown in the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may produce headwinds for the greenback and spur a near-term rally in EUR/USD as fears of a slowing recovery dampens bets for a Fed rate-hike in the first-half of 2016.

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10 years 2 months ago #9697 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 4 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 FEBRUARI 2016

• Majors flat in Asia as markets digest largest US Dollar drop in nearly a year
• Bank of England rate decision, MPC minutes, Inflation Report in focus ahead
• Steep skew in Pound positioning hints risk of sharp rally greater vs. alternative

Currency markets are treading water in Asian trade as investors digest yesterday’s aggressive burst of volatility. That move saw the US Dollar plunge against all of its major counterparts, handing it the largest one-day loss in almost a year.

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10 years 2 months ago #9701 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 5 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 FEBRUARI 2016

• Conflicting cues make for clouded outlook before January US jobs report
• Skewed positioning hints US Dollar to see outsized response on upbeat print
• New Zealand Dollar down with bond yields as RBNZ outlook deteriorates

All eyes are on January’s US Employment data. The economy is expected to have added 190k jobs, marking the weakest print in four months. Wage inflation – a major input for Fed policy bets – is also seen slowing. Average hourly earnings growth is forecast to register at 2.2 percent year-on-year, down from a near-six year high of 2.5 percent in the prior month.

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10 years 2 months ago #9714 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 8 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 FEBRUARI 2016

- February marks the second month of the strongest quarter of the year for the US Dollar.
- The commodity currencies have typically outperformed during February.
- February marks the start of four consecutive months of gains for the S&P 500.

That was a rough first week of February for the US Dollar. After interest rate markets priced out any rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, the greenback slid across the board, with Wednesday, February 3, marking the single-largest one day drop for the ICE Dollar Index in history outside of the 1998 and 2008 crises. Needless to say, markets have proven unsettled with the US Dollar’s prospects, so much so that otherwise bullish longer-term seasonality trends have thus far been ignored.

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10 years 2 months ago #9723 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 9 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 FEBRUARI 2016

• Yen soars to 15-month high, Aussie drops amid risk aversion in Asian trade
• Sentiment slump likely reflects returning 2016 FOMC interest rate hike bets
• Pre-positioning for Yellen testimony may reverse overnight risk-off moves

The anti-risk Japanese Yen soared to a 15-month high while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars declined as risk aversion carried over from Wall Street onto Asian stock exchanges. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock benchmark index is on pace to issue its largest daily decline in three weeks having dropped over 2 percent.

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10 years 2 months ago #9731 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 10 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 FEBRUARI 2016

• All eyes on Fed Chair Yellen as traders price out further rate hikes in 2016
• US Dollar set to fall if vague comments leave room for dovish interpretation
• Signs of pro-tightening bias to boost US Dollar but rekindle risk aversion

The spotlight has turned to Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she begins two days of Congressional testimony. The remarks come against a backdrop of fizzling rate hike expectations. Fed Funds futures show the markets no longer expect the FOMC to tighten borrowing costs further in 2016. At the start of the year, the Fed envisioned 100bps of on-coming tightening while investors projected a more modest 50bps shift.

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10 years 2 months ago #9744 by Jelle
Replied by Jelle on topic Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Februari 2016
DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 FEBRUARI 2016

• Yen gains as Hong Kong, Seoul stocks catch up to global equities rout
• Markets took Yellen comments as dovish despite hints to the contrary
• Second day of testimony offers opportunity for overt rate hike signaling

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed as Asian stocks slumped in overnight trade, fueling the unwinding of carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index fell over 1 percent as bourses in Hong Kong and South Korea reopened after the Lunar New Year holiday and moved to catch up with selling seen elsewhere earlier in the week.

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