Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 MAART 2016

• Commodity Dollars rise, Yen slumps as risk appetite firms in Asia
• Risk-on mood may reflect re-evaluation of new ECB policy regime
• S&P 500 futures hint sentiment rebound to continue into week-end

Risk appetite trends shaped FX market price action in overnight trade. The sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars traded higher alongside stock prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen underperformed. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 0.8 percent as markets digested yesterday’s ECB monetary policy announcement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 MAART 2016

• Major currencies treading water vs. US Dollar amid lull in major event risk
• Risk aversion may weigh on commodity bloc FX, boost Yen as FOMC looms
• Fed unlikely to raise interest rate but may ramp up hawkish tone in rhetoric

FX markets are in digestion mode at the start of the trading week, with the major currencies little-changed against the US Dollar. Asian stock exchanges are pushing higher but the move seems to reflect reactionary flows to Friday’s upward push on Wall Street rather than new optimism.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 MAART 2016

• Yen gains, commodity-bloc FX weakens as risk aversion sweeps Asia markets
• Sentiment slump likely reflects pre-FOMC jitters, status-quo BOJ rates stance
• Upside surprises on US Retail Sales, PPI figures may amplify risk-off mood

Financial markets’ mood soured in overnight trade, with the sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars dropping alongside stock prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell nearly 1 percent in a move that appeared to reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s FOMC policy announcement.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 MAART 2016

• US Dollar to rise as commodity FX weakens on hawkish FOMC
• Pound to look past UK budget given limited impact on BOE bets
• Yen edges lower overnight as prices correct after post-BOJ rally

Most of the major currencies were little-changed in overnight trade as investors waited for the much-anticipated monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve before committing to a firm directional bias. The Japanese Yen edged lower as prices corrected having put in the largest advance in the week following yesterday’s BOJ rate decision.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 MAART 2016

• Gold price jumped on prospects of slower interest rate trajectory in 2016
• Oil price rose as USD slid, a lower than expected inventory data also provided support
• Copper price retraced its topside despite Fed’s concerns on global growth

The US dollar declinedand commodity prices roseafter the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee held off from raising borrowing cost. Oil pricestayed elevated above $38 in Asian trade. In a press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Yellen downplayed the effect of low oil price on the central bank’s policy decision.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 MAART 2016

- Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow to 1.5%- Lowest Since November 2015.
- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at 2.0% for Second Straight Month.

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Despite forecasts for a marked slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), stickiness in the core rate of inflation may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to move away from its easing cycle following the ‘insurance’ rate-cuts in 2015.

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DAGELIJKE MARKT ANALYSE 21 MAART 2016

• Canadian, NZ Dollars fall as Yen gains amid risk aversion in Asia trade
• Aussie Dollar gains with China stocks margin lendingcurbs are relaxed
• Fed-speak in focus as markets digest last week’s FOMC rate decision

The sentiment-linked Canadian and New Zealand Dollars are underperforming in overnight trade while the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen are trading higher as most Asian stock exchanges edged lower. The regional benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific equity index excluding Japan – where markets are closed for a holiday today – inched down in a move that looked corrective after prices hit a year-to-date high on the back of last week’s FOMC rate decision. Fed officials downgraded their projected rate hike path to imply two 25bps increases in 2016, down from four envisioned in December.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 MAART 2016

• Gold price weakened amid broad USD recovery and low liquidity
• Oil price picked up on renewed optimism that the supply glut may ease
• Copper price formed an inside-day as Chinese stocks snapped gains

Commodity prices have stabilised after last week’s fluctuations. Oil, gold and copper prices are lingering within yesterday’s trading bands. Optimism in oil prices resurfaced after energy data provider Genscape released report of the first draw in crude inventory since January at Cushing hub. Market participants are waiting for more insight with upcoming data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday and U.S. Department of Energy on Thursday. Nevertheless, 2016’s high of 42.54 remains out of reach for now.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 MAART 2016

• US Dollar continues to rise as markets undo half of post-FOMC drop
• March rate forecast update, subsequent Fed-speak hint at new strategy
• Comments from St. Louis Fed’s Bullard may add to case for June hike

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising to its highest in four days against its major counterparts and erasing half of the decline sustained in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve policy announcement. The rate-setting FOMC committee downgraded its projected rate hike path to imply two 25bps increases in 2016, down from four envisioned in December.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 MAART 2016

- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Contract for Fourth Time in Last Six-Months.
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts to Contract 0.5% After Climbing 3.4% in January.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
A 3.0% contraction in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may hamper the near-term advance in the greenback and spur a rebound in EUR/USD should the data print undermine Fed expectations for a ‘consumer-led’ recovery in 2016.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 APRIL 2016

- EUR/USD quickly moved into a bullish breakout posture after Fed Chair Yellen’s comments.
- Despite a ‘good enough’ US jobs report, EUR/USD’s ascent was only momentarily stalled intraday.
- As market volatility ebbs, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The Euro finished out the quarter on mostly strong footing, rallying further against recently embattled currencies like the British Pound (EUR/GBP +1.31%) and the US Dollar (EUR/USD +1.97%). Yet with commodity prices, mainly Crude Oil, slumping again, the commodity currencies weren’t able to post sizeable gains (if at all; EUR/CAD rallied by +0.01%) around the latest round of dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 APRIL 2016

• Yen gains amid risk aversion, Australian Dollar edges higher on static RBA
• US Dollar may rise as markets prepare for release of March FOMC minutes
• British Pound may continue to recover on PMI data after last week’s swoon

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising against a backdrop of weakness across Asian stock exchanges. The Australian Dollar traded modestly higher after the RBA kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent and signaled it is in no hurry to ease again, as we expected. The near-term pop probably reflects the underlying dovish lean in 12-month policy bets that still price in at least one 25bps rate cut by early 2017.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 APRIL 2016

• Aussie Dollar gains, Yen trades lower as risk appetite firms in Asia
• Minutes from March FOMC meeting in focus for financial markets
• US Dollar may rise as the Fed’s tone on external headwinds softens

The Australian Dollar traded higher alongside Asian stock exchanges while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined as sentiment firmed overnight. The moves appeared corrective in the context of risk aversion yesterday, which probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming publication of minutes from the March FOMC meeting.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 APRIL 2016

• Japanese Yen soars vs. major currencies financing costs jump again
• US Dollar back on the defensive after March FOMC meeting minutes
• Fed may be setting the stage for June hike despite market skepticism

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising to the highest level since August 2013 against its major counterparts. The move played out against the backdrop of another sharp jump in forward rates. Furthermore, the currency’s gains were mirrored in a drop in benchmark Japanese government bond futures, implying an increase in the cost of JPY-denominated financing. In fact, the implied carry return on ownership of most major currencies funded in terms of the Japanese unit has steeply declined.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 APRIL 2016

• Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
• Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
• Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 APRIL 2016

• Aussie and NZ Dollars, Yen oscillate with stock prices in Asian trade
• Fed-speak may set the stage for US Dollar recovery later in the week
• Corporate earnings reporting season may spill over into FX markets

A lull in impactful economic data flow saw risk sentiment setting the pace for currency markets at the start of the trading week. The sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars as well as the anti-risk Japanese Yen seesawed against a backdrop of oscillating share prices.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 APRIL 2016

• Gold price rallied to 3-week high while equities traded subdued
• Oil price held above $40/barrel ahead of oil-producers meeting
• Copper price traded flat amid seasonal demand slack

Oil prices held above $40 per barrel in both WTI and Brent futures, ahead of an oil-producers meeting to discuss an output freeze at January's levels. Major producers from the Middle East and Russia will attend the April 17 summit, although tensions remain after Iran and Libya expressed their non-committal stance. The oversupply currently reigns over oil market sees between 1 million and 2 million barrels of excessive crude produced daily. WTI oil reached a three-week high of $40.75 today and higher moves are not ruled out as the market hopes for a positive outcome.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 APRIL 2016

• Aussie, NZ Dollars rise with stocks and crude oil as Yen falls in Asia
• China’s trade data cheered as exports, imports outperform forecasts
• US data, Fed Beige Book may boost Dollar and trigger risk aversion

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are outperforming in Asian trade, rising alongside regional share prices. Crude oil is likewise on the upswing while the anti-risk Japanese Yen is proving weakest on the session, speaking to a broad-based recovery in sentiment. The move seems to reflect follow-on momentum from similarly upbeat performance on Wall Street, where shares surged alongside the WTI contract following an Interfax report claiming that Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed on the terms of an oil output level freeze.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 APRIL 2016

• US Oil prices Tuesday rose above the 200-day SMA for the first time since July 29, 2014
• Crude volatility, volume, open interest and options activity signal extraordinary interest
• Fundamentals in supply-demand are key, including the Doha meeting scheduled April 17

Oil spot prices this week closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in 445 trading days – breaking a record ‘bear trend’. Is this the cue for a systemic trend change? Crude has risen more than 15 percent since hitting its February lows, but the pressure of the incredible bear trend over the past two years requires considerable conviction to overturn.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 APRIL 2016

• Gold priceswere headed for a weekly decline amid strength in USD and equities
• Oil pricesslipped on news of Iran’s absence from Doha meeting
• Copper prices set for the biggest weekly rise in 6 weeks after encouraging signals from China

Gold prices fell on a third consecutive day and were headed for the first weekly decline in three weeks, as strength in the dollar and globalequities curbed appetite for the safe-haven asset. Asian shares were subdued today but many of them still set for weekly gains. A sense of optimism over the Chinese economy after decent data solidified this situation.

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