Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 JULI 2016

• Aussie and Canadian Dollars rise, Yen falls as risk appetite firms overnight
• NZ Dollar drops as soft 2Q CPI data adds fuel to RBNZ rate cut speculation
• Sentiment may continue to swell if BOE’s Weale hints at easing in August

The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars are trading higher alongside share prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen is facing selling pressure at the start of the trading week. Financial markets appear to be breathing a sigh of relief after an attempted military coup in Turkey over the weekend seems to have failed.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 JULI 2016

• Euro may fall as German ZEW survey highlights Brexit spillover
• NZ Dollar drops as RBNZ LVR expansion sets stage for rate cut
• July RBA minutes trigger easing speculation, sink Aussie Dollar

The German ZEW survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations gauge is expected to issue the largest drop in eight months. News-flow out of the Euro zone’s largest economy has softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for an even weaker outcome.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 20 JULI 2016

- The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, lowest since September 2005
- BoE comments released at the same time says there are no evidence of sharp slowing in UK yet post Brexit
- GBP/USD spiked higher as the comments hit the wires

The British Pound pushed higher versus other major currencies, after today's jobs report showed UK's employment rate fell and the BoE released comments saying they have yet to see sharp slowing post Brexit.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 JULI 2016

- ECB likely on hold until next staff projections in September.
- EUR/USD hovering around $1.1000 pre-meeting.
- As market volatility stays elevated post-Brexit, it's a good time to review risk management principles.

The European Central Bank meets for its July rate decision today, one in which, in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, was rife with potential for surprise action. Instead, however, the stability in financial markets will most likely allow the ECB to keep rates on hold, staying with the pattern of only making a significant change to policy when the staff economic projections (SEP) are released

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 JULI 2016

- UK’s Economy contracts at the steepest pace since 2009
- Euro-Zone’s economy showed surprising resilience in the face of the EU vote
- Euro traded slightly higher, British Pound plunges versus the US Dollar

The Euro traded slightly higher versus the US Dollar, while the British Pound tumbled as Markit’s first post-Brexit PMIs hit the wires. The Eurozone PMI Composite Index came at 52.9, above the expected 52.5 print, but slightly lower than the prior 53.1 figure, which marked an 18-month low.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 JULI 2016

- NZD/USD trading below the 0.70 handle at the time of writing
- New Zealand Trade Balance figures start a possible volatile week for the pair

The NZD/USD continues to trade below the 0.70 handle in early London trading hours, but a week full of key event risk might see the sharp decline in the pair come to a halt. The New Zealand Trade Balance figures are the initial main event risk on the docket for the Kiwi, but FOMC and US 2Q GDP figures seem likely to shake things up further later this week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 JULI 2016

• GBP/USD Trades off Channel Resistance at 1.3152
• Consumer Confidence Figures are Expected at 95.5

The GBP/USD is trading in a short term price channel ahead of today’s U.S Consumer Confidence release. Expectations for the event are set at 95.5, and depending on the outcome the GBP/USD may continue to channel lower or breakout and begin a fresh trend. Key technical points to watch on the Cable include the previous channel high at 1.3152, and this morning’s swing low at 1.3055.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 JULI 2016

- 2Q year-on-year GDP expanded 2.2% vs 2.1% expected
- Growth in the production industries increased by 2.1% in Q2
- British Pound moved higher but quickly turned lower on the news

The British Pound traded lower versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s Preliminary 2Q’16 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures showed the UK’s economy grew better than expected.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 JULI 2016

- USD/JPY edging lower following the FOMC rate decision
- BoJ Monetary Policy Decision seems likely to be a huge market mover

The USD/JPY is edging lower following the FOMC rate decision, with the pair trading below the 105 handle at the time of writing. The pair has seen erratic movements as of late on different reports of possible fiscal stimulus in Japan, believed to be in the region of ¥28 Trillion, but details are still lacking.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 JULI 2016

• The Bank of Japan kept its annual monetary base target at ¥80 trillion and the rate at -0.10%
• Announces increase in ETF purchases to ¥6 trillion and doubles USD lending program to $24 Bln
• USD/JPY saw a 2.7% range in the minutes after the release, the Nikkei 225 swung 3.5%

With the global market paying close attention, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced fresh additions to its expansive stimulus program. However, the effectiveness of these measures certainly comes with a heavy dose of skepticism. Market expectations heading into the meeting were set extremely high as fundamental speculation seemed to build into a frenzy of what the next step could be with global monetary policy pushing the envelope on measures that are notably failing to inspire the markets (drive target currencies lower, lift equities) and are generating far less growth than the scale of the programs would insinuate.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 1 AUGUSTUS 2016

- AUD/USD finding difficulties above the 0.76 handle
- US ISM data, RBA rate decision in focus ahead.

The AUD/USD is having difficulties cracking the 0.76 handle after the pair surged higher following Friday’s US 2Q GDP figures miss.
US ISM Manufacturing index and the RBA rate decision are the main event risk on the docket in the hours ahead, and could induce significant volatility for the pair.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 AUGUSTUS 2016

- NZD/USD trading around resistance at the 0.72 handle area
- US PCE Figures and New-Zealand’s dairy auction numbers in focus ahead

The NZD/USD is having difficulties around resistance levels at the 0.72 handle area, after the pair surged higher following Friday’s US 2Q GDP figures.
US PCE and New-Zealand’s dairy auction numbers are the main event risk on the docket for the pair in the hours ahead as the market awaits Friday’s NFP figures for further information on the US Economy.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 AUGUSTUS 2016

- USD/CAD trading around resistance at the 1.3150 level
- US ISM data and Crude Oil Inventories put the pair in focus today

The USD/CAD rebounded yesterday after finding support above the 1.30 handle, and currently trades around potential resistance below the 1.3150 figure.
The pair remained supported even though the US Dollar tumbled, perhaps due to influence of falling Oil prices pressuring its Canadian counterpart.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 AUGUSTUS 2016

- GBP/USD trading around 1.3300, fails to break 1.3350
- All eyes on BoE today with the bank highly expected to cut rates

The GBP/USD is trading sideways in the last couple of trading days between 1.3350 and 1.3300 after the pair surged higher following Friday’s US 2Q GDP miss.
The pair seems to have problems cracking the 1.3350 resistance, but things could change quickly with the event risk ahead.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 AUGUSTUS 2016

- USD/JPY trading sideways around the 101 handle
- All eyes on US NFPs as the pair appears poised for a short term technical break

The USD/JPY is trading sideways around the 101 handle in the last couple of trading days after sinking lower following perceived disappointments from the BOJ monetary policy announcement and the Japanese new fiscal stimulus plans.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 8 AUGUSTUS 2016

- AUD/USD still supported above 0.76 following Friday’s NFPs
- A quiet economic docket puts the spotlight on the China CPI data later for possible volatility

The AUD/USD is still being supported above the 0.76 handle (at the time of writing) after the pair moved lower following Friday’s blockbuster NFP report.
A quiet economic calendar ahead shifts our focus to China's July CPI data for possible volatility for the pair given the trading relations between China and Australia.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 AUGUSTUS 2016

• NZ Dollar finds support in pre-positioning for RBNZ policy announcement
• British Pound falls as BOE’s McCafferty says further easing likely needed
• Aussie Dollar down as NAB forecasts RBA to mull non-standard stimulus

The New Zealand Dollar edged higher overnight in what may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ rate decision. Priced-in expectations show investors are certain that a 25bps cut is in the cards, with at least 25bps in further easing over the coming 12 months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 AUGUSTUS 2016

- NZD/USD trading higher after finding support below 0.71
- A quiet economic docket puts focus on the pair and the RBNZ rate decision ahead
- A rate cut is highly expected, perhaps shifting focus to the accompanying statement and the bank’s tone

The NZD/USD continues to push higher after finding support below the 0.71 handle following a decline on Friday’s upbeat US NFP report.
The push higher could reflect pre-positioning ahead of the RBNZ rate decision, which shifts our attention to possible market reaction on the news.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 AUGUSTUS 2016

- U.S. Advance Retail Sales to Increase for Fourth Consecutive Month.
- Will Stronger Consumption Spur Larger Dissent Within FOMC?

Another 0.4% rise in U.S. Advance Retail Sales may boost the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 15 AUGUSTUS 2016

- AUD/USD finds support below 0.7650 after forming a daily bearish pattern
- RBA minutes ahead are in focus and could provide further information on rate outlook
- AUD/USD may remain supported if low volatility continues as yield differentials prevail

The AUD/USD has found support below the 0.7650 level (at the time of writing) after the pair formed a bearish daily technical pattern implying that a possible top might be forming.

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