Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 APRIL 2016

- If the ECB doesn’t comment on the EUR/USD exchange rate, it’s possible another small rally is in store.
- Twenty year April seasonality trends suggest EUR/USD could still strengthen this month.

The Euro took a step back last week as global equity markets rallied, and despite the proximity of the European Central Bank’s April policy meeting, the move was likely unrelated. The truth is, just like in January, we’re too close to the most recent shift in easing policies before the ECB is ready to declare the measures in effective yet.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 APRIL 2016

• The Doha meeting ended with a clear signal that supplies would not be systematically lowered any time soon
• Crude oil gapped lower to open the week while USDCAD posted its biggest jump in 13 years
• While this is significant event risk, it tells us more about troubling market conditions

For those trading during the opening hours of Monday's session, there was considerable volatility on the back of the failed Doha meeting. Dramatic gaps and equally extraordinary reversals occurred for US oil and USDCAD - two focal points for those following the crude supply cap speculation. These moves were certainly incredible; and for the industrious trader, could have offered significant trading opportunity. However, there is more to this market reaction than just a 24 hour trade.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 21 APRIL 2016

• ECB unlikely to deliver policy change at today’s announcement
• Draghi presser in focus for guidance on future easing potential
• Markets likely to be disappointed absent strong dovish rhetoric

The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Economists expect officials will leave the current settings unchanged this time around. Traders’ priced-in bets implied in EONIA futures agree. This makes sense: the ECB announced forceful stimulus expansion last month and will likely want to monitor progress for at least a few months before deciding on whether further measures are necessary.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 22 APRIL 2016

• Gold prices eased from 5-week high on US dollar strength post-ECB meeting
• Oil prices fell as the market’s focus turned back to a failed output freeze deal
• Copper prices set for a weekly gain on the back of iron ore, although they were vulnerable to correction

WTI crude oil prices fell from a previous high at $44.49 to trade around $43.70 a barrel today as expectations waned on a prospective output freeze deal. Mixed headlines from Russia failed to restore the market’s confidence and Brent crude traded a narrow range of $44.75-45.23. The recent highs saw WTI oil increasing 57 percent from a multi-year low at $29.31 in January, and such steep gains may expose oil to profit taking activities.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 25 APRIL 2016

• Yen outperformed overnight as prices retraced BOJ-inspired selloff
• ECB officials’ commentary may overshadow German IFO survey
• Q1 US corporate earnings may impact FX via risk appetite trends

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its G10 counterparts in a move that appeared corrective following Friday’s sharp selloff. The unit issued its largest drop since October 2014 amid speculation that the Bank of Japan may expand stimulus efforts at this week’s policy meeting. An expansion of asset purchases as well as the introduction of negative lending rates in addition to the recent implementation of negative deposit rates may emerge.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 26 APRIL 2016

• Yen gains, Asian stocks retreat in apparent pre-positioning for BOJ, FOMC
• New Zealand Dollar trades higher amid easing RBNZ rate cut speculation
• S&P 500 futures hint at risk-on mood ahead of busy day of earnings reports

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed overnight as stocks declined in Asian trade. Regional shares followed Wall Street downward in a move that may reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s much-anticipated monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 APRIL 2016

• Gold prices rebounded after soft US data and as the market expects no change from FOMC
• Oil prices held up above $44.4 as U.S. stockpiles were seen falling
• Copper prices dipped alongside AUD although the downside was supported by soft USD

Copper prices dipped together with the Australian dollar after data pointed to the first quarter of deflation in the country in seven years. Nevertheless, prices halted declines after a two-day losing streak, thanks to a softer USD. Demand woes continued to pressure prices and copper may re-test a one-week low at $2.2265.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 APRIL 2016

- 1Q U.S. GDP to Expand Annualized 0.6%- Slowest Rate of Growth Since 1Q 2015.
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to Increase for First Time in Three Quarters.

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may dampen the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term advance in EUR/USD as signs of a slowing recovery weigh on interest-rate expectations.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 APRIL 2016

• Japanese Yen continues to push higher, hits 18-month high vs. US Dollar
• Eurozone GDP data a non-event for the Euro but may boost risk appetite
• Upbeat US PCE reading may rekindle June FOMC rate hike speculation

The Japanese Yen continued to strengthen in overnight trade, rising to the highest level in 18 months. The move played out alongside a decline in S&P 500 futures, pointing to risk-off sentiment as the driver behind price action. The Australian Dollar tracked gains in the S&P/ASX 200 stock index, which diverged from an otherwise downbeat mood across major Asian bourses. Energy and raw materials shares led the way higher, following a recovery in crude oil prices.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 2 MEI 2016

• Markets’ focus to return to Fed rate bets as post-BOJ volatility recedes
• US Dollar may be more responsive to upbeat vs. soft April ISM figures
• NZ Dollar extends gains on neutral RBNZ posture, Yen corrects lower

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight April’s Manufacturing ISM print out of the US. Expectations point to a slight slowdown in the pace of factory-sector growth. US news-flow has increasingly softened relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks, opening the door for a downside surprise.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 MEI 2016

- UK’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI at 49.2, below the 51.2 expected
- Greater pressure on the service sector to sustain GDP growth, Markit says
- British pound dropped on the news versus other major currencies

The British Pound traded lower versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI showed manufacturing fell in April. The manufacturing diffusion index, by Markit Economics, fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.2 from the revised prior reading of 50.7. The number was below economists’ expectations of a 51.2 print. A number above 50 points to an expansion, below 50 to a contraction. The number signals the first fall below the critical no-change mark of 50.0 for the first time since March 2013.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 MEI 2016

• NZ Dollar falls with Asian shares, Yen retreats from 19-month high
• Soft ISM, ADP figures may weigh against Fed rate hike speculation
• S&P 500 futures hint risk aversion may limit US Dollar weakness

The Japanese Yen and the New Zealand Dollar faced selling pressure in overnight trade. The sentiment-sensitive Kiwi tracked Asian share prices lower, tipping risk aversion as the catalyst behind the move. The Australian Dollar managed to hold up better than its New Zealand counterpart, trading little-changed as corrective flows after yesterday’s sharp post-RBA selloff helped offset risk-off pressure.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 MEI 2016

• Commodity bloc FX gains, US Dollar retreats as payroll data looms
• Fed officials’ commentary a wildcard in otherwise deliberative trade
• British Pound may fall as soft PMI data weighs on BOE policy bets

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars advanced in overnight trade. The sentiment-linked currencies shrugged off weakness across Asian stock exchanges – where prices seemed to reflect follow-on weakness carrying over from losses on Wall Street – to rise alongside the more forward-looking S&P 500 futures.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 MEI 2016

• Soft employment figures may hurt Fed rate hike bets, risk appetite alike
• Haven flows may cap US Dollar losses if employment data disappoints
• Aussie Dollar drops after RBA hints at deeper rate cuts on the horizon

Financial markets are likely to look past a lackluster economic calendar in European trading hours to focus on the much-anticipated release of April’s US Employment figures. A 200k increase in payrolls is expected, marking a slight slowdown from the 215k added in March, while the unemployment rate is seen edging lower to 4.9 percent. Equally of note, average hourly earnings are expected to have grown at a year-on-year rate of 2.4 percent, the first acceleration in wage inflation in four months.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 9 MEI 2016

• Quiet European, US data docket puts Fed-speak in the spotlight
• US Dollar may rise if Fed officials hint at tightening job market
• Japanese Yen drops as stocks rise amid recovery in risk appetite

A relatively quiet economic data docket in European trading hours puts Fed-speak in the spotlight. Comments from Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, Presidents of the US central bank’s Chicago and Minneapolis branches, are due to cross the wires. Traders will be keen to hear the two officials’ take on the latest jobs report in the context of probability for an interest rate hike at the June FOMC meeting.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 MEI 2016

• Japanese Yen falls, Aussie Dollar gains as stocks rise in Asian trade
• NZ Dollar lags as FinMin English stokes RBNZ rate cut speculation
• S&P 500 futures suggest risk appetite recovery to see follow-through

The Yen underperformed in overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The risk-on mood bolstered the sentiment-sensitive Australian Dollar, which tracked upward alongside share prices.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 MEI 2016

• Yen gains, Aussie Dollar slumps as risk aversion returns overnight
• NZ Dollar gains as RBNZ opts against setting the stage for rate cuts
• Risk-off dynamics seen ahead as markets eye BOE Inflation Report

The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded higher while the sentiment-anchored Australian Dollar declined as stocks declined in overnight trade. The New Zealand Dollar diverged from broader trends in market mood for a second day, rising following the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report and subsequent commentary from Governor Graeme Wheeler.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 MEI 2016

- BOE voted unanimous at last meeting for first time since July 2015.
- Current inflation outlook calls for return to target in early-2018.

The Bank of England is meeting today around the greatly anticipated 'Super Thursday,' one of the four days per year that the BOE releases it rate decision, meeting minutes, and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) all in one fell swoop. Unfortunately for traders, even as 2016 was supposed to bring the BOE closer to normalizing policy, with the UK’s EU referendum set for June 23, in context of UK data starting to slip, it is all but certain that the BOE will sit pat today.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 MEI 2016

• Yen gains, Aussie and NZ Dollars drop on risk aversion in Asia trade
• S&P 500 futures hint risk-off mood set to continue into the week-end
• Sentiment trends may trump policy bets if US news-flow disappoints

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded lower as investors’ mood soured in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 1 percent. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower ahead, hinting the risk-off mood is aiming to carry through into the final hours of the trading week.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 16 MEI 2016

• Yen falls, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as markets shrug off China data
• Sentiment trends at the forefront on thinevent risk in quiet holiday trade
• US Dollar unlikely to find strong lead on pre-positioning for CPI report

The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded lower while the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar outperformed as risk appetite firmed at the start of the trading week. The weekly trading open was marked by initial negativity as investors reacted to disappointing Chinese data released over the weekend. The dour mood swiftly dissipated however, with the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rising 0.7 percent.

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