Dagelijkse Markt Analyse 11 Januari 2019

DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 23 JULI 2015

• When S&P500 futures and CFDs called an end to an 8-day rally it capped the fourth longest rally in 6 years
• A rally from the New Zealand Dollar after an RBNZ rate cut shows how dovish expectations were
• BoE minutes showed a unanimous vote to hold rates, but the next gathering is expecting dissenters

Burgeoning trends are losing momentum while primed breakouts are faltering without distinct event risk to catalyze their potential energy. For the S&P 500, an eight-day run hit its wall Tuesday to cap one of the longest runs since the recovery began following the Great Financial Crisis. The retreat so far looks to be a moderation rather than a true reversal.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 24 JULI 2015

• Australian Dollar declines more than 1 percent versus the US Dollar in morning trade Friday
• China’s July Preliminary PMI reading fell to 48.2 versus 49.7 expected and 49.4 in June
• Standard & Poor's says it could lower Australia’s credit rating unless budget conditions improve

The Australian Dollar fell more than 1 percent in Friday morning trade against its US counterpart to extend its slide to a fresh 6-year low. The drop started after China’s manufacturing PMI figure for July crossed the wires. The indicator dropped to 48.2 versus the 49.7 expected - that is the lowest level seen since April 2014. A reading below 50.0 is indicative of a contraction for the sector – vital for Chinese growth and Australian exports. Following the release, the pair declined more than 0.5 percent.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 27 JULI 2015

• US Dollar Drops Amid Pre-Positioning Before FOMC Policy Announcement
• Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Direction Cues in German IFO Survey Data
• See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as front-end yields declined, hinting weakness may reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s much-anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Traders may be paring back exposure in favor of a more neutral posture until after event risk passes having rebuilt bets on a 2015 rate hike over the past two weeks (as reflected in the December Fed Funds futures contract).

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 28 JULI 2015

• British Pound May Rise as 2Q UK GDP Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Outlook
• US Dollar Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in Consumer Confidence Report

Second-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. An increase of 0.7 percent is expected, which would mark a pickup from the 0.4 percent gain recorded in the first three months of the year. An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening. Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 29 JULI 2015

• US Dollar Likely to Rise Following FOMC Monetary Policy Announcement
• Markets Expect Tightening in September But a July Rate Hike is a Possibility

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders wholeheartedly focused on the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Markets expect the central bank to withhold an interest rate hike this time around, putting the focus on the statement accompanying the announcement for further guidance.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 30 JULI 2015

- U.S. GDP to Rebound Annualized 2.5% After Contracting During First Three-Months of 2015.
- Personal Consumption to Expand 2.7% to Mark First Pickup Since 4Q 2014.

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The advance 2Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may boost the appeal of the greenback and spark a further decline in EUR/USD as signs of a stronger recovery fuels expectations for a 2015 Fed rate hike.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 31 JULI 2015

• US Dollar May Rise as Employment Cost Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
• July’s Flash Eurozone CPI Unlikely to Inspire Lasting Euro Follow-Through

The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 3 AUGUSTUS 2015

- EURUSD took a spill post-FOMC, and the USDOLLAR Index has remained in its consolidation state ever since.
- Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike is proving to be a persistent, significant catalyst for EURUSD.

Despite all of the intraweek volatility, when the chips settled, the Euro ended the week lower against most of its major counterparts. Depreciating by just under one-half of one percent against the US Dollar, EURUSD saw price oscillate between $1.0892 and $1.1128 amid a flurry of headlines around Greece, whether or not the Federal Reserve would raise rates in September 2015, and further signs of volatility in Chinese financial markets.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 4 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Australian Dollar Soars as RBA Statement Drops Call for More Depreciation
• UK Construction PMI Unlikely to Stir British Pound as BOE Meeting Looms

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 1.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move followed the RBA monetary policy announcement. While the central bank kept the baseline lending rate unchanged at 2 percent as expected, the statement released following the sit-down revealed moderation in policymakers’ rhetoric about the exchange rate. Specifically, Governor Glenn Stevens conspicuously left out recently ubiquitous language saying further Aussie depreciation is “both likely and necessary”.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 5 AUGUSTUS 2015

• British Pound to Overlook Services PMI as BOE Rate Decision Looms Ahead
• US Dollar May Rise as ISM, ADP Reports Boost Bets on September Fed Hike

July’s UK Services PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the index to edge narrowly lower to 58.0 from 58.5 recorded in the prior month, reflecting a slight deceleration in the pace of sector activity growth. The outcome may not inspire follow-through from the British Pound however as traders withhold directional conviction until after this week’s much-anticipated Bank of England policy announcement passes.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 6 AUGUSTUS 2015

• BOE to Unleash Rate Decision, MPC Minutes, Inflation ReportSimultaneously
• British Pound Post-BOE Bias May Favor Upside on Hawkish Turn in Guidance

The Bank of England is firmly in focus in European trading hours. Policymakers will debut their new policy reporting scheme, simultaneously delivering a rate decision along with minutes from the accompanying meeting of the MPC policy-setting committee as well as the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). To cap things off, Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 7 AUGUSTUS 2015

• US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Jobs Data Boosts Fed Tightening Outlook
• Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Policy Statement Weighs on Rate Cut Bets

A relatively lackluster economic data docket in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to July’s US Employment report. An increase of 225,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.3 percent, matching a seven-year low recorded in June.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 10 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Underperform Following Disappointing Chinese Data
• US Dollar May Rise if Fed-Speak Boosts September Interest Rate Hike Bets

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The move followed disappointing Chinese economic data released over the weekend. Exports fell 8.1 percent year-on-year in July, marking the largest drawdown in four months. Meanwhile, the CPI report put the benchmark inflation rate at 1.6 percent, the highest since October.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 11 AUGUSTUS 2015

• US Dollar Gains as China Devalues Yuan, Looks on to Dudley Commentary
• Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Follow-Through from German ZEW Survey

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move reflected the ripple effects of an unexpected move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to devalue the official reference rate for the Yuan by 1.9 percent, the most on record. The currency plunged against the greenback, pushing the latter currency higher across the board.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 12 AUGUSTUS

• Second Yuan Devaluation Part of “New Normal” for China
• PBOC Likely to Continue Reducing Yuan Reference Rate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets when it announced a 1.9 percent devaluation of the Yuan reference rate yesterday, marking the largest such move since the “crawling peg” FX regime was introduced in 2005. Officials called the change a one-off realignment to bring the effective exchange rate closer to market expectations. Needless to say, the markets were more than a little surprised when the central bank slashed the reference rate by a further 1.6 percent today.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 13 AUGUSTUS 2015

• September Fed Rate Hike Bets May Swell if US Retail Sales Tops Forecasts
• US Dollar Outperformed in Asia, Correcting After Yesterday’s Sharp Selloff

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to July’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 0.6 percent, marking an improvement over the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 14 AUGUSTUS 2015

- Euro-Zone 2Q GDP to Expand Annualized 1.3%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since 3Q 2011.
- Will Faster Growth Spark a ‘Taper Tantrum’ as GDP Picks Up for Three-Straight Quarters?

The Euro-Zone’s 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may boost the appeal of the single currency and spur fresh monthly highs in EUR/USD as the growth rate is expected to increase 1.3% following the 1.0% expansion during the first three-months of 2015.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 17 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Oil lingered near fresh low as global oversupply persisted
• Copper demand absorbed the weak yuan shock
• Gold steadied on China’s demand though the rally faded

This morning the CNY was fixed at almost the same rate on Friday against the US dollar in another sign that China’s purported devaluation has completed. The new levels of exchange rate will likely trigger adjustments in short-term commodity demand. Prices were also under the pressure of US dollar strength after solid economic data.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 18 AUGUSTUS 2015

• British Pound May Rise if Upbeat CPI Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Outlook
• NZ Dollar Up Before Dairy Auction, Canadian Dollar Down with Crude Oil

UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 0.9 percent. On the whole, UK economic news-flow has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, opening the door for a possible upside surprise. Leading activity surveys have likewise hinted at a pickup in price pressures (albeit an uneven one). A higher-than-expected outcome may fuel a pickup in BOE interest rate hike speculation, boosting the British Pound.

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DAGELIJKSE MARKT ANALYSE 19 AUGUSTUS 2015

• Core UK CPI offered its most hawkish surprise in three years and drove the Pound higher
• Ahead, the combination of US CPI and the FOMC minutes may rouse the same jolt of volatility for the Dollar
• Considerable fundamental friction is needed to drive USD, motivating risk staples like SPX far more difficult

It is high profile event risk versus a seasonal trading lull. Whichever side overpowers the other will dictate the Dollar's next move. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is still mired in a broad range that is well reflected across the majors. This indecision and restraint reflects the mood in the broader markets with expectations of depressed liquidity keeping speculative drives under wraps.

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