MARKET UPDATE

Er komt vandaag een mini-eurotop tijdens de G20-bijeenkomst in Cannes. Dat heeft het Franse Élysée bekendgemaakt.
Op de bijeenkomst om half 11 's ochtends zullen de leiders van Duitsland, Italië, Spanje en Frankrijk aanwezig zijn, de eurolanden die lid zijn van de G20.
Ook zullen er afgevaardigden aanschuiven van de Europese Centrale Bank, de Europese Commissie, de Europese Raad en het Internationaal Monetair Fonds, aldus het Élysée.
De G20 die donderdag en vrijdag in Cannes wordt gehouden is helemaal in het teken komen te staan van de verder uit de hand lopende eurocrisis. Daarbij zijn alle ogen gericht op Griekenland en Italië. De onverwachte aankondiging van een Grieks referendum over het EU-akkoord van vorige week heeft tot grote paniek onder beleggers geleid. Ook Europese politici zijn totaal overvallen. Ze vrezen dat iedereen twee maanden in onzekerheid wordt gehouden door dit referendum. In Italië heeft premier Silvio Berlusconi opnieuw een crisisberaad met zijn kabinet bijeengeroepen. Hij moet vandaag naar Cannes komen met een geloofwaardig bezuinigingsplan. De Italiaanse rente liep dinsdag op naar recordhoogtes.

Wat kan er nu gebeuren. Volgens de Financial Times Deutschland zijn dit de mogelijkheden:
1. Het Griekse kabinet valt. Er komt geen referendum, maar nieuwe verkiezingen in Griekenland. Effect niet veel minder onaangenaam dan van een referendum: lange onzekerheid
2. Euro-Zone valt uiteen voor het referendum: het duurt minstens een maand voor de uitslag van het referendum er is. Dat kan te lang blijken, omdat de financiële markten Europa voor die tijd al op de knieën dwingen
3. Dankzij het referendum komt alles goed. Als 2 niet is gebeurd, kan het in theorie zo zijn dat alles goed komt, nadat de Grieken voor de euro kozen in hun referendum. 'En de euro leefde nog land en gelukkig'
4. Vanwege de uitslag van het referendum gaan de Grieken failliet. En wie en wat slepen ze dan mee? Banken met schulden van Griekenland krijgen harde klappen. Maar kan het beperkt blijven tot Griekenland? Kan daarop is niet groot
5. Failliet Griekenland verlaat de euro. Als 4. geweest is blijft nog de vraag wat de Grieken doen, blijven of vertrekken. In beide gevallen is de economische toekomst voor de Grieken donker. Maar als ze uit de euro stappen is hun kans op herstel groter. Griekenland wordt dan uitermate goedkoop. Arm, maar aantrekkelijk.
6. Failliet Griekenland zorgt voor breuk in Eurozone. De euro kan in dit scenario de krachten niet de baas die het failliet van Griekenland oproept en valt uit een. Helemaal of in twee, waar de noordelijke staten de Neuro hebben en de zuidelijke staten de Zeuro

Amerikaanse beleggers leken gisteren de schok over het aangekondigde referendum in Griekenland te boven. De hele dag schreven de indices zwarte cijfers. Een beter dan verwacht banencijfer was één van de redenen voor de positieve stemming.
De Dow Jones-index sloot op 11.836,04 punten, een winst van 1,5%. De breder samengestelde S&P500 won 1,6% en sloot op 1237,90 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq steeg bijna 1,3% en sloot op 2639,98 punten. Voorzitter Ben Bernanke van de Federal Reserve houdt nadrukkelijk de optie open om de Amerikaanse economie met een derde opkoopoperatie te stimuleren.
Dit heeft de Fed-voorzitter gisteren benadrukt bij de persconferentie na het rentebesluit van het Amerikaanse stelsel van centrale banken.
Volgens Bernanke is een derde grootschalige opkoopoperatie, ditmaal van hypotheekobligaties, een 'goede mogelijkheid'. De Fed-voorzitter stelde dat de monetair beleidsbepalers dit overwegen als de omstandigheden dat vereisen.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren hoger gesloten, na grote verliezen een dag eerder, waarbij beleggers in afwachting zijn van een bijeenkomst tussen Griekse en Europese leiders over het referendum dat Griekenland wil houden met betrekking tot het meest recente reddingsplan. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 1,4% hoger op 2.291,89. De DAX-30 steeg 2,3% tot 5.965,63, de CAC-40 sloot 1,4% hoger op 3.110,59 en de FTSE-100 won 1,2% op 5.484,10.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag lager gesloten, omdat obligatiebeleggers woensdag hun winst pakten na de sterke stijgingen in de twee voorafgaande handelssessies. De rentes in de eurozone stijgen. Vooral de Franse tienjaarsrente maakte een flinke sprong. De rente op tienjaarspapier van Frankrijk is aan het begin van de middag met 18 basispunten opgelopen naar 3,12%. Ook in de overige eurolanden lopen de rentes op, behalve in Spanje. Daar daalde de tienjaarsrente met 1 basispunt. De Italiaanse rente is met 7 basispunten opgelopen naar 6,24%. De Franse rente wordt gestuwd door een waarschuwende opmerking van kredietbeoordelaar S&P, die vanochtend aangaf dat de Franse kredietstatus op langere termijn onder druk staat. Dat is geen verrassende mededeling, maar het zorgt in deze nerveuze tijden wel voor verkoopdruk. Vandaag houdt Frankrijk een veiling van staatsobligaties met looptijden van 10 en 15 jaar. 'Ook dat zorgt voor verkoopdruk', aldus een obligatiehandelaar. Hij legt uit dat banken die zo'n emissie begeleiden (primary dealers), tegenwoordig minder ruimte op hun balans hebben om bij een veiling papier op te kopen. Normaal gesproken nemen banken bij een veiling grote hoeveelheden obligaties op in hun balans, om die in de dagen na de veiling rustig te verkopen.
'Nu de ruimte op de balans ontbreekt, verkopen ze het papier al voor de veiling', legt de handelaar uit. Hij zegt dat je de helft van de rentestijging mag toeschrijven aan dit soort verkoopacties. Volgens de handelaar verkopen beleggers vandaag ook flink wat Italiaanse obligaties. 'Bij Spaans papier zie ik geen verkoopdruk', zegt hij. Tegelijkertijd koopt de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) volgens hem zowel Spaans als Italiaans schuldpapier. 'Omdat er wel Spaans wordt gekocht, maar er weinig verkopers zijn, heeft een geringe aankoop van de ECB dus een relatief groot effect op de rente.' Dat verklaart volgens hem waarom de Spaanse rente als enige in Europa daalt.

De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met winst gesloten, op een volatiele dag waarbij vooral de financials enigszins herstelden na de stevige verliezen van een dag eerder.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 0,7% hoger op 298,21 punten, de Midkap eindigde vlak op 466,65 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,6% hoger op 415,88 punten.

De olieprijs is gisteren hoger gesloten, waarbij vroege stijgingen werden getemperd door een sterker dan verwachte stijging van de wekelijkse olievoorraden.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,32 hoger op $92,51.

Forex:
De Europese Investeringsbank (EIB) stelt €250 mln beschikbaar voor leningen aan kleine en middelgrote ondernemingen in Nederland en Belgie, via een kredietprogramma van ING. Dat maken de twee banken gisteren bekend.
Door de betrokkenheid van de EIB profiteren ondernemers in Nederland en Belgie van een lager rentetarief, stellen de banken. Het programma stelt ondernemers in staat om investeringskosten voor 100% te financieren, tot €12,5 miljoen per project.
'Het is de derde keer in tweeëneenhalf jaar dat we een kredietovereenkomst aangaan met de EIB en wij horen en zien dat onze klanten daar dankbaar gebruik van maken', zegt Hans van der Noordaa, die binnen ING verantwoordelijk is voor de bankactiviteiten in de Benelux.
Van 2008 tot 2010 verstrekte de EIB €30 mrd aan 160.000 kleine en middelgrote bedrijven in heel Europa. De leningen zijn bedoeld om de economische groei op lange termijn te ondersteunen, tijdens moeilijke economische omstandigheden.
In het verleden ging de steun van de EIB aan Nederlandse bedrijven vooral naar kleinere bedrijven, met minder dan tien werknemers, die gemiddeld een kleine €1 mln aan steun kregen. Het ging vooral om bedrijven in de sectoren landbouw, voeding, productie en detailhandel.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8767; (P) 0.8864; (R1) 0.8965; .
Near term focus in USD/CHF remains on 0.9082 resistance. As long as this level holds, fall from 0.9315 is still expected to continue and below 0.8785 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8567 and below. Nevertheless, break of 0.9082 will indicate that correction from 0.9315 is already finished and recent rebound from 0.7065 is resuming for another high above 0.9315.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA raises the possibility that such rebound is finished at 0.9315 already. Focus is turned back to 0.8246 support. Break there should bring retest of 0.7065 low. Nevertheless, there is still prospect of another rise as long as 0.8246 support holds. Above 0.9315 will target 50% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9398 and above. But even in that case, strong resistance should be seen below 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement at 0.9948) to limit upside.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 77.93; (P) 78.46; (R1) 78.90; .
USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway consolidation from 79.52 and intraday bias remains neutral. While another fall cannot be ruled out, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 77.48 resistance turned support and bring another rise. As noted before, the strong break of near term falling trend line indicates that whole decline from 85.51 should be finished. Above 79.52 should send USD/JPY through 80.23 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound today is strong, USD/JPY is still staying inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is still no clear indication of long term trend reversal even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd still favor further down side in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and USD/JPY could spiral down further to 70 psychological level. Though, we'll pay attention to the eventual structure of the rise from 75.56 and adjust our view accordingly.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3580; (P) 1.3726 (R1) 1.3843; .
EUR/USD recovers after hitting 1.3608 but is kept below 1.3871 minor resistance. Fall from 1.4246 is still mildly in favor to continue. Below 1.3608 will further affirm the case that rebound from 1.3145 is finished after missing 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145 and will target a test on 1.3145 low first. Break will resume decline from 1.4939. On the upside, above 1.3871 will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 1.4246 resistance.
In the bigger picture, recent volatility in EUR/USD is mixing up the outlook again. But firstly, consolidation from 1.6039 is still in progress. Secondly, as long as 1.3145 support holds, rise from 1.1875, which is a leg inside the consolidation pattern, is still in progress. Break of 1.4939 will resume such rally. But even in that case, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.3145 will in turn shift favor back to the case that another falling leg is already started at 1.4939 and would target 1.1875 support next.
Update: Completion of ABC Correction Could Be A Bear Trap
After the FOMC statement and Bernanke's press conference, the USD regained strength as the market was in general risk-off mode. The statement and conference held no punches, and the market reverted to the risk-off mood that began the week. The EUR/USD can be see in a bearish continuation as the market falls below a projected channel trendline support. It remains unclear at the moment whether this is truly a bearish continuation, or a bear-trap.
Bearish continuation: In the this scenario, the market should stay below 1.3715. However, a rally up toward 1.3750 may still be acceptable. The bearish outlook is further confirmed with break below 1.3636 and a push of the RSI back below 30. The 4H chart shows that the first downside target should be 1.3566. Below that, we open up 78.6% retracement at 1.3381.
More Consolidation: However, a break above 1.3766 is likely to usher in further consolidation. We still have the ECB interest rate at 8:45 AM ET, and the NFP coming up on Friday at 8:30 AM ET. With such important even risks, there is a good chance of the continuation consolidation scenario. The targets for further correction above 1.3766 is the 1.3830-1.3850 resistance area, and then the 50% retracement and 200SMA at 1.3927. This would reflect a reversion back to the mean price action in the short-term in anticipation important factors up to Friday's NFP.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5859; (P) 1.5976; (R1) 1.6063; .
GBP/USD recovers after drawing support from near term rising channel but is still staying in tight range below 1.6165 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations would still be seen. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.5631/5851 support zone and bring resumption of rebound from 1.5271. Above 1.6165 will target 1.6618 resistance next. However, break of 1.5631 will indicate that rise from 1.5271 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
13:45uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 13:30uur cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher yesterday following the Fed statement that it would reinvest in mortgage backed securities to support the weaker housing market. The Dow (11836.04) was up 1.53% and the Nasdaq (2639.98) was up 1.27%. Resistance is seen in 11900-50 region on the Dow and a failure to rise past this Resistance region now would be bad for the Dow as a pull back from this Resistance region would result in the formation of a Head and Shoulder pattern.
The fears on the Euro zone debt crisis is keeping the Asian markets pressured on the downside and all the Asian markets except for the Shanghai (2518.54, up 0.58%) are trading lower today as well. Australia (4222.90) is down 0.67%, Hong Kong (19245.50) is down 2.47%, Nikkei (8640.42) is down 2.21% and Taiwan (7503.09) is down 1.25%. The Sensex (17464.85, down 15.98 points) and Nifty (5258.45, up 0.50 points) had closed flat yesterday and could fall today following the other Asian markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (91.38) is looking mixed and is not gaining strength for further rise although it is continuing to trade above 90 over the last few days. With Resistance in 93.50-94.00 region, we remain bearish for a test of 88 or even lower on the downside.
Gold (1726.36) remains ranged between 1700-50. The immediate outlook is mixed and as mentioned yesterday, while below 1750-70 Resistance region, the threat of seeing a strong break and fall below 1700 is still there. We will have to wait and see.
Silver (33.69) was not able to sustain the break above 34 yesterday and has come off from its high of 34.42. A test of 33-32 on the downside looks likely and whether 32 holds or break will determine the further direction of move.
Copper (3.57) has bounced back after the Fed statement yesterday. 3.60-70 will be an important Resistance region to be watched and only a strong break above this Resistance region will ease the downside pressure.
CURRENCIES
Yesterday saw the Euro (1.3677) rise to 1.3829 during the day but give up all gains later in the US session. Strong and unpleasant words from Merckel and Sarcozy ahead of the Greek referendum are not going to help the situation any bit. Total lack of vision and statemanship. Quite insane, really.
Dollar-Yen (78.04) remains steady. The Swiss Franc (0.8870), Pound (1.5880) and Aussie (1.0233) have all weakened against the Dollar. The Dollar Index (77.41) trades higher and could well rise past 77.50 also.
The Euro may find Resistance near 1.3725 today and could dip further ahead of the ECB Meeting. The Aussie and the Pound look weaker than the Euro.
Among the Asian currencies, it is noteworthy that the USD-SGD (1.2821) has risen above 1.2800. The Korean Won has weakened further to 1131.91. Quite possible, therefore, that Dollar-Rupee may move up towards 49.40-50 today after having closed near 49.1850 yesterday.
INTEREST RATES
Fed left the interest rates unchanged at <0.25% and had said that it would reinvest in mortgage backed securities to support the weaker housing market. The US 5Y, 10Y and 30Y yields were down 2bps each to quote at 0.89%, 1.99% and 3.01% respectively while the 2y yield was flat at 0.24%
The ECB meet is scheduled for today which will watched by the market. It is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged at 1.50%.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Geen stand van de Nikkei 225. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De trend van de Eur/Usd is ranging.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 3 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Arcadis, KW3, voor beurs
- ArcelorMittal, KW3
- Corio, KW3, na beurs
- Delta Lloyd, trading update KW3
- Holland colours, halfjaarcijfers 2011/2012
- ING, cijfers KW3
- Sopheon, trading update KW3
- Tencate, trading update KW3
- Unilever, cijfers KW3
- Vastned, cijfers KW3, na beurs
- Wereldhave, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 29 oktober, 13.30 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3 (voorlopig), 13.30 uur
- EU, rentebesluit ECB, 13.45 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 15.00 uur
- VS, fabrieksorders, september, 15.00 uur
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur

Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Donderdag 3 november: Beleidsbijeenkomst ECB.
- Donderdag 3 november tot vrijdag 4 november: G20 bijeenkomst in het Franse Cannes.
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.

–Thursday, Nov. 3: ECB policy meeting. Mario Draghi’s first press conference as ECB President. Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Thursday, Nov. 3-Friday, Nov. 4: Meeting of G-20 leaders in Cannes.
–Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

Volgens onbevestigde geruchten op twitter zou premier Papandreou zijn ontslagen. Tegelijkertijd gaat het gerucht dat Papandreou geen meerderheid krijgt, dus dat een referendum niet door kan gaan. De Belgische zakenkrant De Tijd vraagt zich af of dat nou positief is. Geen meerderheid betekent nieuwe verkiezingen, en dat betekent ook meer tijd en onzekerheid. En als er iets is waar de markten niet op zitten te wachten, is het dat

De Griekse premier Papandreou vraagt de oppositie in te stemmen met het Europees noodpakket, in ruil daarvoor is hij bereid het referendum te laten vallen.
Papandreou deed de handreiking in een toespraak tot het kabinet, de tekst werd daarna verspreid aan de media. Vervolgens meldde het kantoor van de premier dat Papandreou al met oppositieleider Samaras van de partij Nea Dimokratia heeft gesproken over zijn voorstel.
'Ik zal blij zijn als we geen referendum krijgen, wat nooit het doel op zich was', zei Papandreou tijdens zijn toespraak tot het kabinet. 'Ik ben blij dat alle discussie in elk geval veel mensen bij hun zinnen heeft gebracht.' De Griekse premier gaf aan dat hij met oppositieleider Samaras stappen wil zetten naar 'een bredere consensus'. Samaras riep in een verklaring op om een nieuwe regering te vormen. 'Ik vraag om de vorming van een tijdelijke, overgangsregering met een mandaat om direct verkiezingen te houden. En ik vraag om de ratificatie van het huidige noodpakket (...)'. Nea Dimokratia gaf al eerder op de dag aan dat het alleen aan een nieuwe regering zou deelnemen als het euro-akkoord van 26 oktober wordt geratificeerd en daarmee de betaling van de nieuwe tranche van €8 mrd wordt veiliggesteld. Het was een opmerkelijk wijziging, de partij was tot dusver fel gekant tegen het euro-akkoord.
Papandreou verwelkomde het besluit van Samaras om verzet op te geven tegen het noodpakket dat vorige week werd afgesproken met de Europese regeringsleiders.
De toezegging van Papandreou volgt na een dag waarin de druk op hem sterk toenam en de Griekse regering aan het wankelen kwam. Minister van financiën en vice-premier Evangelos Venizelos viel de premier openlijk af, en zei tegen het referendum te zijn. De parlementaire meerderheid voor Papandreou was eerder deze week al geslonken tot één zetel, doordat weer een parlementariër de fractie verliet. Venizelos zei na de toespraak van Papandreou dat de regering volledig afstand moet nemen van het plan voor een referendum, ook zonder de voorwaarden die de premier er nog aan verbond. Volgens de minister heeft Griekenland voor 15 december de nieuwe tranche van €8 mrd nodig. De onrust rond de Griekse regering leidde tot berichten over een vertrek van Papandreou. De BBC meldde donderdag aan het begin van de middag al dat de Griekse premier binnen een half uur zijn aftreden bekend zou maken. Het bericht werd al snel ontkend door de staf van de premier. Papandreou's kabinet was gisteren sinds 11 uur 's ochtends in spoedberaad over de gevolgen van het voorstel van de premier een referendum te houden over de uitkomsten van de EU-top van woensdag 26 oktober. Dat plan leidde de afgelopen dagen tot een storm van protesten uit andere Europese hoofdsteden.
De Griekse premier werd woensdagavond op het matje geroepen door de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel en de Franse president Nicolas Sarkozy. Hij kreeg toen te horen dat Griekenland de volgende tranche van €8 mrd niet zou krijgen tot het referendum is gehouden.
De eurozone staat klaar Griekenland te helpen en wil graag dat het land onderdeel van het eurogebied blijft, maar de Grieken moet zich houden aan hun hervormingen, zeiden de leiders van de Europese Unie gisteren. "Het eurogebied staat klaar om Griekenland te blijven helpen, maar Griekenland moet zich houden aan het overeengekomen noodpakket van 26-27 oktober en doorgaan het de invoering van het EU/IMF-programma", zeiden voorziter van de Europese Commissie d4rz7e Manuel Barroso en president van de Europese Unie (EU) Herman van Rompuy in een gezamelijke verklaring tijdens de ontmoeting van de G-20 in het Franse Cannes.

Beurzen op Wall Street sloten met een stevige plus op een handelsdag waarin beleggers moesten wikken en wegen tussen een tegenvallend Amerikaanse macrocijfers, een renteverlaging van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) en de uitkomst van een Grieks crisisberaad.
De Dow Jones-index sloot op 12.044,47 punten, een winst van 1,76%. De breder samengestelde S&P500 won 1,88% en sloot op 1261,15 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq steeg 2,20% en sloot op 2697,97 punten.
Een deel van de beleggers raakte in mineur door een tegenvallende inkoopmanagersindex ISM. Waar vooraf gerekend was op een stijging, daalde deze licht. De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) gaf beleggers vervolgens een lichtpunt door de rente te verlagen.
De verwachting dat dit de economie stimuleert zette koersen hoger. Olie werd duurder, meer economische activiteit doet de vraag naar ruwe olie stijgen. Een vat Brent-olie steeg 1,26% naar $110,72.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren ruim hoger gesloten, vanwege een onverwachte renteverlaging van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) en hoop dat het controversiele Griekse referendum alsnog wordt geschrapt. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 2,5% hoger op 2.347,94. De DAX-30 steeg 2,8% tot 6.133,18, de CAC-40 sloot 2,7% hoger op 3.195,47 en de FTSE-100 won 1,1% op 5.545,64. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn gisteren lager gesloten, nadat de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) de rente onverwacht verlaagde en de Griekse premier Papandreou zich bereid toonde van het referendum af te zien.
De ECB verraste de markt donderdag met een verlaging van de rente met 0,25 procentpunt, naar 1,25% van 1,5%. Het was de eerste verlaging, die volgde op twee verhogingen begin dit jaar.

De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met flinke winst gesloten, vooral vanwege de onverwachte renteverlaging door de Europese Centrale Bank met 25 basispunten.
De AEX-index sloot donderdag 2,1% hoger op 304,50 punten. De Midkap won 1,6% op 474,17 punten. De Smallcap eindigde met een winst van 0,5% op 418,03 punten.

De olieprijs is gisteren gesloten op het hoogste niveau in twee maanden. Handelaren reageerden opgetogen op de onverwachte renteverlaging in Europa, beter dan verwachte economische data uit de VS en berichten dat het Griekse referendum wellicht wordt geschrapt.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,56, of 1,7%, hoger op $94,07.

De leiders van de G20 zijn het erover eens dat de financiële slagkracht van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) moet worden vergroot. Het is dan beter in staat te helpen de Europese schuldencrisis te bezweren. Dit hebben functionarissen bij de topconferentie van de G20 in het Zuidfranse Cannes gisteren gezegd.

Forex:
Euro exit would give EU legal and financial headache
The Greek prime minister has abandoned his plan for a referendum on the latest rescue plan for his country. The idea of Greece’s exit from the euro, raised in public for the first time by France and Germany, will be harder to ignore. It is a threat left hanging over Athens, but is it real?
This might require a good lawyer. Extensive as they are, the European Union treaties do not actually provide for a country leaving the eurozone. (Until now, it was taken for granted that the traffic would all be headed in the other direction).
The treaties do include a sort of emergency clause that allows the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, to make proposals to deal with extraordinary events that are a threat to the single currency. So it could probably use this as a basis to draft a Greek exit, if necessary. As with all EU matters, the process would not be immediate. The other 26 member states would have to unanimously approve, as well as the European Parliament.
Thanks to a clause in the Lisbon treaty, which came into force in 2009, Greece could take a more radical approach and opt to leave the EU altogether. (This clause was added at the behest of the UK, to prove to its eurosceptic voters that the bloc was not a straitjacket that could never be removed). In this case, Greece would require only majority approval from other member states.
But, on top of all the other acrimony, its departure would result in potentially fraught negotiations over its EU payments. Greece, for example, receives tens-of-billions of euros in development funds while its farmers harvest bumper crops of agricultural subsidies. The fate of these payments, which are programmed over several years, and other EU accounts could take some time to sort out. There would also be the question of whether a non-EU Greece would still want to maintain links to the single market, as Norway and Switzerland do.
What about the banks?
One of the gravest challenges of introducing a new Drachma would be preventing a run on Greece’s banks. As soon as customers sensed such a move was in the works, they would almost certainly attempt to drain their euro accounts and move them to safer ground, such as Germany. As the crisis has worsened, Greek banks are already experiencing an outflow of deposits. Changing currencies would almost certainly force the government to impose emergency capital controls to prevent a full-fledged bank run.
What would happen to euro-denominated contracts?
This would be another headache of Olympic proportions. All domestic contracts – from property leases to employment contracts – would probably have to be amended to reflect the change from euros to the new currency. Far more contentious would be cross-border contracts. Companies selling goods to Greece would insist that they continue to be paid in euros while Greeks would probably try to pay in the new currency or at reduced rates. Much litigation would ensue.

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Scenario: Zig Zag Correction Developing
The EUR/USD market has been whipping up back and forth in consolidation. After rallying from a bear trap in early 11/3 European session, EUR/USD fell after the ECB decision as the US trading session began. However, it found support after Draghi’s conference was over, and extended the correction rally past the consolidation high near 1.3825. After an abc consolidation, which we will call wave A, followed by bear-trap B wave, it appears we might be developing a C wave of a zig zag. This C wave can be expected to have impulse wave structure.
Looking at the 1H chart we see resistance near 1.39 (200-period simple moving average) up to 1.3927 (50% retracement). This is a good place for the market to “park” the EUR/USD in the short-term look as it awaits the NFP release Friday 8:30AM ET. Then, if the market finds support above 1.3820, another swing up can extend pass the 50% toward 61.8% retracement near 1.40. This would also satisfy a zig zag where C=161.8% A.( It should be noted that according to Elliott Wave principles, C wave in a zig zag can have wave 4 and 1 overlap if it develops a rising wedge).
A rally above 1.40 however would start to look too deep for just a retracement and the bullish scenario may be have to be considered at least in the short-term in context of a sideways market in the larger degree.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
10:00uur, 11:00uur en 12:00uur uit de Eurozone en 13:30uur cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
Greece backing away from its proposed referendum on the bail out package and the ECB's surprise move to cut interest rate by 25 bps has triggered a sharp rally in the equity markets all over. Following this, all eyes will be now on the US NFP data release due today.
The Dow (12044.47) was up 1.76% and has closed above 12000. The Nasdaq (2697.97) was up 2.2%. While above 12000, Dow has good chances of moving up further towards 12500-600 and the Nasdaq can see 2800 on the upside while above 2600.
The Asian markets are trading higher. Australia (4320.80) is up 1.98%, Shanghai (2523.01) is up 0.59%, Nikkei (8750.76) is up 1.28%, Hong Kong (19847.30) is up 3.14% and Taiwan (7612.86) is up 2.04%. The Sensex (17481.93, up 17.08 points) and Nifty (5265.75, up 7.30 points) had closed slightly higher yesterday and can extend their gains today following the other markets. 18300-400 and 5500 are the significant Resistance levels to be watched on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (93.93) has risen sharply yesterday. However, the Resistance in 94.00-50 region is still holding. A strong break above this 94.00-50 Resistance region would ease the downside threat and could open up the doors for a test of 100 on the upside.
Gold (1759.10) has risen above 1750, but the Resistance at 1770 is still holding. As we have been mentioning for some time, Gold has to see a strong rise past 1770 to extend its upmove further and ease the threat of seeing a break below 1700.
Silver (34.29) is not gaining strength and is looking mixed. It has important Resistance near 36 and while below 36, Silver is expected to remain pressured on the downside. Support is seen at 32.
Copper (3.62) is finding Support near 3.47 and while above this Support it can move up further towards 3.80-90 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3807) was subject to huge intra-day volatility, going up-down-up between 1.3650-3850 through the day yesterday. A mixture of the Greek drama, the G-20 meeting and the ECB rate cut contributed to the large choppy moves which would have left many traders decimated. If the current Euro-pessimism subsides a bit, there could be chances of a rise towards 1.40.
In case today's US NFP comes in better than expected, then also the Euro could rally. A rise above 100K and a dip in Unemployment to 9.0% (if seen) would greatly enthuse the markets.
Dollar-Yen remains silent near 78.00. The Swiss Franc (0.8798) has gained further compared to yesterday's level of 0.8894 as uncertainty still exists regarding the Eurozone situation. The Pound (1.6005) and the Aussie (1.0375) had moved up yesterday alongwith the rise in the Euro to intra-day highs of 1.6062 and 1.0446 respectively, but has come off a bit from there.
Among the Asian currencies, the USD-SGD (1.2684) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 1.2861, but could weaken again next week. The Korean Won (1113.90) has strengthened. Dollar-Rupee, which closed at 49.14 yesterday could fall towards 49.00-48.90.
INTEREST RATES
The new ECB President Mario Draghi has reduced the benchmark policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% responding to expectation of ild recession in the region. He claimed to address the issue without increasing money supply. Bond prices came off internationally. Yields on German bunds increased in 5Y,10Y and 30Y tenors to 0.96%(+5bps), 1.92%(+10bps) and 2.73% (+8 bps) respectively. Note, the 2Y yields fell marginally to 0.41% (-1bps).
US treasury yields also increased significantly between 1 to 11 bps across all tenors with far end increasing more, 2Y increased to 0.25% (+1bps) and 30Y to 3.12% (+11bps).
Note yesterday increase in yields in US, EA and even in Britain and Japan failed to cover the respective fall in last one week. Thus we may see some more increase in the coming sessions.
In India, the 10Y GOI yields has increased dropped marginally to 8.89% (-1bps). As mentioned in the earlier edition, we see it going to 9% if the support at 8.90-85 holds.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Hang Seng index +3.3%, de Nikkei 225 +1.86%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. De trend van de Eur/Usd is ranging.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 4 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- DPA, trading update KW3
- Eurocommercial, cijfers KW1 2011/2012, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex diensten, oktober, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, september, 11.00 uur
- Dui, fabrieksorders, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, werkloosheid, oktober, 13.30 uur
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Cryo Save Group, trading update KW3 .- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur

Een overzicht van de gebeurtenissen en bijeenkomsten in de Eurozone:
- Maandag 7 november: Bijeenkomst ministers van Financiën eurozone.

–Friday, Nov. 4: Greek government confidence vote. Euro-zone services PMI data.
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De Griekse president, premier en oppositieleider zijn in Athene bijeen voor overleg over de vorming van een kabinet van nationale eenheid.
Premier George Papandreou zou bereid zijn zijn functie op te geven. Hij zou daarmee tegemoet komen aan een eis van oppositieleider Antonis Samaras. Die heeft aangegeven niet te willen deelnemen aan een nieuwe regering onder leiding van de huidige premier.
De vorming van een regering van nationale eenheid is noodzakelijk om een dreigend failissement van Griekenland af te wenden. EU-president Herman van Rompuy heeft Papandreou duidelijk gemaakt samenwerking tussen beide grote politieke partijen een voorwaarde is om steungeld te ontvangen. Vandaag maande ook Eurocommissaris Olli Rehn van Economische Zaken de Grieken om haast te maken.
Onder leiding van president Paoulias overleggen Papandreou en Samaras zondagavond over de te vormen regering. Samaras eistte zaterdag nog dat de vorming van zo'n regering pas kan plaatsvinden na verkiezingen. Die zouden volgens hem al in december kunnen plaatsvinden. Het is onduidelijk of hij aan die eis vasthoudt.
Papandreou heeft laten weten dat verkiezingen wat hem betreft pas in februari of maart van 2012 aan de orde zijn.
Een woordvoerder van de regering zei zondag op de Griekse televisie dat er nog dit weekend overstemming moet worden bereikt over samenwerking binnen een nieuwe regering. 'Het zou goed zijn om vandaag, of op z'n laatst morgen, ook te beslissen over de naam van een nieuwe premier', aldus de woordvoerder.

De Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi heeft alle politieke partijen opgeroepen om zijn bezuinigingsagenda te steunen. Berlusconi heeft bij de eurotop van twee weken geleden beloofd om sterk te gaan bezuinigen om te voorkomen dat het land net als Griekenland gered moet worden.

Wall Street is vrijdag lager gesloten, met name vanwege de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen, het uitblijven van een eenduidig signaal van de G20 daaromtrent en een tegenvallend Amerikaans banenrapport.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,5% lager op 11.983,24 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 0,6% tot 1.253,23 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,4% afstond tot 2.686,15 punten.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, vanwege de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen, een tegenvallend Amerikaans banenrapport en het uitblijven van een eenduidig signaal van de G20.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 2,4% lager op 2.291,47. De DAX-30 daalde 2,7% tot 5.966,16, de CAC-40 sloot 2,3% lager op 3.123,55 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,3% op 5.527,16.
Europese staatsobligaties zijn vrijdag hoger gesloten in tegengestelde richting van de lagere Europese aandelenmarkten, vanwege de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen, een tegenvallend Amerikaans banenrapport en het uitblijven van een eenduidig signaal van de G20.

De AEX is vrijdag lager gesloten, vanwege de voortdurende onzekerheid over de Europese schuldproblemen en een tegenvallend Amerikaans banenrapport.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 0,8% lager op 301,97 punten. De Midkap verloor 0,3% tot 472,63 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,6% hoger op 420,63 punten.

De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is vrijdag hoger gesloten, ondanks een tegenvallend Amerikaans banenrapport.
Het aantal banen in de Verenigde Staten is in oktober minder hard dan verwacht gestegen, bleek vrijdag uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse ministerie van arbeid.

De voorzitters van de Duitse coalitieparitjen CDU, CSU en FDP hebben zondag besloten tot belastingverlagingen die de burgers de komende jaren miljarden euro's extra in de portemonnee moeten brengen. Dit maakte bondskanselier Angela Merkel in Berlijn bekend.

Oud-minister van Financiën Wouter Bos vindt het Europese noodfonds te klein. „Het noodfonds of de leencapaciteit of hoe je het dan ook organiseert, is nu te klein”, zei de voormalig politicus zondag in het tv-programma Buitenhof.

Forex:
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.3608 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading. On the downside, below 1.3608 will indicate that fall from 1.4246 has resumed. Also, this will reaffirm the case that rebound from 1.3145 is completed at 1.4246, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145 at 1.4254. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 1.3145 low first On the upside, though, above 1.3871 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1.4246 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, recent volatility in EUR/USD is mixing up the outlook again. But firstly, consolidation from 1.6039 is still in progress. Secondly, as long as 1.3145 support holds, rise from 1.1875, which is a leg inside the consolidation pattern, is still in progress. Break of 1.4939 will resume such rally. But even in that case, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.3145 will in turn shift favor back to the case that another falling leg is already started at 1.4939 and would target 1.1875 support next.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY jumped to as high as 79.52 last week on intervention but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidative trading could be seen. But we'd expect downside of retreat to be contained by 77.48 support and bring another rise. Break of 79.52 should send USD/JPY through 80.23 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 75.56 was strong, USD/JPY is still staying inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is still no clear indication of long term trend reversal even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd still favor further downside in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and USD/JPY could spiral down further to 70 psychological level. Though, we'll pay attention to the eventual structure of the rise from 75.56 and adjust our view accordingly.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD formed a short term top at 1.6165 last week and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidation could be seen. But in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained by 1.5631/5851 support zone and bring another rise. Above 1.6165 should extend the rebound form 1.5271 towards 1.6618 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 1.5631 will indicate that rebound from 1.5271 has finished and should bring retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD's strong rebound last week argues that choppy pull back from 1.0656 is finished at 0.9891, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 0.9884. Rebound from 0.9891 is expected to continue initially this week and further rise could be seen to retest 1.0656 first. On the downside, below 1.0055 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.9891 support instead. Break there should resume the fall from 1.0656 through 0.9725 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9406 are viewed as corrective in nature, which would eventually develop into a consolidation pattern. Having said that, firstly, down trend from 1.3063 is expected to resume eventually for another low below 0.9406. Secondly, while rebound from 0.9406 might extend further, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803 to finish the consolidation.
In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. The strong resistance ahead of the falling 55 months EMA suggests that decline from 1.3063 might still be in progress and a break of 0.9406 will possibly extend the down trend through 0.9056 low.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP dived sharply to as low as 0.8548 last week but formed a temporary low there and turn sideway. At this point, we're still slightly favoring the case that consolidation from 0.8529 has completed with three waves up to 0.8830. Hence, current consolidation from 0.8548 is expected to be limited by 0.8669 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8548 will target 0.8529 first. Further break there will confirm resumption of the whole decline from 0.9083 and should target 0.8284 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.8669 will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8884 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
12:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 21:00uur cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed lower on Friday. The Dow (11983.24) was down 0.51% and has closed below 12000 and the Nasdaq (2686.15) was down 0.44%. The outlook remains mixed.
The Asian markets are trading mixed. Australia (4333.60, down 0.20%), Shanghai (2524.42, down 0.15%) and Nikkei (8752.64, down 0.55%) are trading lower while Hong Kong (19947.41, up 0.54%) and Taiwan (7636.15, up 0.43%) are trading higher. The Sensex (17562.61, up 80.68 points) and Nifty (5284.20, up 18.45 points) had closed higher on Friday. The Indian markets are closed today on account of Bakri-Id holiday.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (94.86) is trading just above its Resistance at 94.50 and can test its next significant Resistance at 96. A strong break above 96 can take Crude up towards 100.
Gold (1766.90) remains mixed and is continuing to be ranged between 1700-1770. A breakout on either side of this range will determine the further direction of move.
Silver (34.41) is not gaining strength and is keeping the chances of testing 32.50-00 on the downside.
Copper (3.58) is finding Resistance near 3.65 and while it holds a test of 3.40 looks likely in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3768) is trading lower today. Resistance is seen in 1.3825-55 region and while it holds, a dip to 1.3700-3650 can be seen. Dollar-Yen (78.12) remains flat above 78. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.54) is ranged between 106.50-108.25 over the last few trading days and it needs to see a breakout on either side of this range to give clear idea on the further direction of move.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8931) has risen above the 21-DMA (0.8880) which was restricting the upmove all through last week and the pair can rise further to 0.8970-9000. A strong break above 0.9000 would open doors for a test of 0.9200 on the upside. Cable (1.6011) is not gaining strength to extend its upmove strongly above 1.6000 and it can dip to 1.5900-5850 once again. Aussie (1.0359) has significant Resistance in 1.0400-20 region and while it holds, it can test 1.0250-00 on the downside in the coming sessions.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1108 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2696. DOllar-Rupee had closed at 49.10/11 on Friday. The Indian markets are closed today on account of Bakri-Id holiday.
INTEREST RATES
Bond prices rallied last week in the Global fixed income market compressing the yields. With increase in apprehension on Euro area sovereign debt crisis and its probable impact on global economic activities, the demand for bonds are increasing.
Through the week, US treasuries yields has came off across all maturities with far end loosing more, weekly close for 2Y yield was 0.23% (-6bps), 10Y at 2.06% (-28bps) and 30 Y at 3.31% (-29bps).
The scenario is same for German bonds as well, 2Y yields slipped by 12bps to 0.46% and 30Y by 27bps to 2.64%.
Unlike its international counterpart Indian bond market witnessed surge in 10Y GOI bond yields as per our expectation. The yield inched up by 10bps to 8.96%.
To sum up, the yields has came off significantly over last fortnight and there are chances for further fall during the week on no clear road map to address the Euro debt crisis, increase in inflationary expectation and lack of consensus on monetary and/or fiscal stimulus in US. However, we expect the Indian 10Y GOI bond yields to move up further targeting 9%.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 -/-0.39%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. Eu/usd neutraal, Usd/Chf in een uptrend.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 7 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- PostNL, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, industriele productie, september, 12.00 uur
- VS, consumentenkrediet, september, 21.00 uur
DINSDAG 8 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Kendrion, cijfers KW3
- Phoenix Group, trading update KW3
- Van Lanschot, trading update KW3
- Air France-KLM, vervoerscijfers oktober
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, handelsbalans, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet en productie industrie, september, 09.30 uur
WOENSDAG 9 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Air France-KLM, cijfers KW3
- Brill, trading update KW3, na beurs
- AMG, resultaten KW3
- Ageas, cijfers KW3
- NSI, trading update KW3
- Vastned O/I, cijfers KW3
- Vopak, cijfers KW3
- Wolters Kluwer, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 4 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, groothandelsvoorraden, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 4 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 10 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aegon, KW3
- Acomo, trading update KW3
- Crown van Gelder, trading update KW3
- Ctac, KW3
- Draka, cijfers KW3
- Galapagos, trading update KW3
- Grontmij, cijfers KW3
- Heijmans, trading update KW3
- Ordina, trading update KW3
- Roodmicrotec, trading update KW3
- Roto Smeets Group, trading update KW3, 8.30
- SNS Reaal, trading update KW3
- TKH Group, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, oktober, 8.00 uur
- NL, inflatie, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 5 november, 14.30 uur
- VS, importprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
VRIJDAG 11 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Alanheri, trading update KW3
- Dockwise, cijfers KW3
- Groothandelsgebouw, cijfers KW3
- Stern, cijfers KW3
- Telegraaf Media Group, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur

Topic:
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De ministers van financiën van de eurolanden willen dat de twee grootste politieke partijen in Griekenland in een brief beloven dat ze de afgesproken bezuinigingen en hervormingen doorvoeren.
Alleen dan zullen de eurolanden de zesde tranche van de noodlening aan Athene overmaken, zo zei voorzitter Jean-Claude Juncker van de eurogroep.
Vorige maand keurden de ministers de uitbetaling van de tranche al goed, maar daar kwam het politieke tumult in Griekenland plotseling tussendoor. 'Dat besluit is nog steeds geldig', aldus Juncker. Zodra de Grieken aan de eis voldoen, kan het geld 'in de loop van november' worden uitgekeerd, aldus eurocommissaris Olli Rehn van economische zaken.
Nationale eenheid. In Athene zijn de socialistische Pasok-partij en de conservatieve Nieuwe Democratie bezig met de laatste besprekingen voor een regering van nationale eenheid. Onduidelijk is nog wie George Papandreou op zal volgen als nieuwe premier van de Griekse regering. De verwachting is dat hier dinsdag meer over bekend wordt.
De ministers van financiën houden waarschijnlijk op 17 november een teleconferentie over de Griekse situatie. Het bestuur van het IMF zal ook half november over de uitbetaling van de tranche beslissen.
De uitkering van de tranche werd vorige week hoogst onzeker toen premier George Papandreou een referendum over de bezuinigingen aankondigde. Uiteindelijk kreeg hij daarvoor geen steun in zijn eigen partij. 'Het vertrouwen heeft een flinke deuk opgelopen. Griekenland moet alles op alles zetten om dat vertrouwen te herwinnen', zei minister Jan Kees de Jager van Financiën maandagavond na afloop van het beraad. 'Via een breed gedragen regering kunnen ze een begin maken met het herstel van het vertrouwen. Want dat geeft een positief signaal naar de markten toe en naar de andere regeringen. Over de vergroting van het Europese noodfonds zijn maandagavond geen concrete beslissingen genomen door de ministers. Op de eurotop van twee weken geleden is al besloten dat er geen extra geld naar het fonds gaat, maar dat naar manieren wordt gezocht om de interesse van private investeerders te wekken.
Directeur Klaus Regling van het noodfonds EFSF heeft de mogelijkheden voor het vergroten van de slagkracht van het fonds uitgewerkt. De komende weken worden marktpartijen hierover geconsulteerd. Juncker denkt dat dan eind november een besluit over de technische opties genomen kan worden. Hij zei dat het opgekrikte noodfonds dan in december in de lucht is.

Wall Street is gisteren hoger gesloten, en wist daarmee van eerdere verliezen te herstellen. Het sentiment werd wederom bepaald door de schuldproblemen in Europa, waar de ministers van Financien overleggen hoe ze veranderingen in het steunmechanisme sneller kunnen doorvoeren.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,7% hoger op 12.068,39 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 steeg 0,6% tot 1.261,12 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,3% won tot 2.695,25 punten.
Het uitstaande consumentenkrediet in de Verenigde Staten is in september harder dan verwacht toegenomen, blijkt gisteren uit cijfers van de Federal Reserve.
Het uitstaande consumentenkrediet steeg ten opzichte van een maand eerder met $7,39 miljard, terwijl vooraf door Dow Jones geraadpleegde economen uitgingen van een stijging van $4,0 miljard. De toename van het consumentenkrediet in augustus werd herzien tot een daling van $9,68 miljard, waar eerder een afname met $9,5 miljard werd vermeld.
De cijfers over het consumentenkrediet zijn over het algemeen erg volatiel en worden meestal herzien.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren overwegend lager gesloten, waarbij de handel volatiel was, vanwege het mogelijke aftreden van de Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 0,7% lager op 2.275,92. De DAX-30 daalde 0,6% tot 5.928,86, de CAC-40 sloot 0,6% lager op 3.103,60 en de FTSE-100 won 1,3% op 15.548,94.

De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten, na een handelsdag die geheel werd gedomineerd door politici en dan met name de Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi. ING sloot flink lager en drukte de index daarmee in belangrijke mate.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 0,7% lager op 299,75 punten. De Midkap zakte op het slot 1,3% naar 466,35 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,5% lager op 418,57 punten.

De olieprijs is gisteren hoger gesloten en sloot voor de eerste keer sinds begin augustus boven de $95 per vat. De olieprijzen bewogen zich niet in lijn met de algemene markttrends die normaal gesproken de energieprijzen beinvloeden. De prijzen van olie bewegen hebben meestal in overeenstemming met de aandelenmarkten en omgekeerd aan de dollar.

Eurozone wants cross-party commitment in Greece
BRUSSELS (AP) -- Greece can get a crucial euro8 billion ($11 billion) slice of bailout money this month if the leaders of the two main parties both commit in writing to the terms of the country's two massive bailouts and the austerity measures and economic reforms that they require, eurozone finance chiefs said Monday.
That payment, which has been delayed by two months, would head off a potentially disastrous default as early as December.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who also chairs the eurozone finance ministers meetings, said that ministers at their get-together in Brussels asked for a letter co-signed by the two party leaders that they will implement that program.
Such cross-party commitment is important as Greece gears up for new elections early next year.
"It is essential that the entire political class is now restoring the confidence that had been lost into the Greek commitment to the EU/IMF program and to the agreement of the 27th of October," said European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn. He was referring to an agreement drawn up at a summit of European leaders last month in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
While finance ministers were meeting in Brussels, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and opposition party leader Antonis Samaras were trying to form a unity government that would lead the country in the meantime.
"It should have been done months ago," Juncker said of the cross-party government.
Italy, which has seen the interest rates on its bonds rise to a euro era record of 6.67 percent, also came in for scrutiny at the meeting Monday in Brussels. Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti assured his colleagues that his country would implement the financial reforms promised last month in a letter from Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, including balancing the budget by 2013 as well as reforming pensions and deregulating the labor market.
Rehn said it was crucial for Italy to implement the policies outlined in Berlusconi's letter. He said he had sent a letter to Italian authorities asking specific questions about the implementation of the program and he expected a written reply by the end of this week. He did not say what the questions were.
Rehn said a technical mission would be sent to Rome on Tuesday or Wednesday to intensify surveillance of the country's fiscal policies.
The finance ministers also spelled out technical details of their plan to give their bailout fund more leverage. The eurozone wants to increase the firepower of the euro440 billion European Financial Stability Facility to euro1 trillion by allowing it to insure bond issues from shaky countries like Italy and Spain and by seeking investors from outside the eurozone.
The CEO of the EFSF, Klaus Regling, said the eurozone would create one or more co-investment funds that could take on funding from private investors like big banks and pension funds, non-European countries, or from the International Monetary Fund.
Investors in those fund would also receive some insurance against potential losses. Regling did not provide a figure for how much of potential losses would be insured but said the percentage would depend on each specific country.
What will follow now will be difficult talks with potential investors and rating agencies to determine how the money can be raised.
The waning confidence in the eurozone was made obvious by much lower demand for bonds issued by the EFSF Monday to raise euro3 billion for the bailout of Ireland.
The EFSF said it received orders just a little over the euro3 billion offered, at an interest rate of 3.59 percent. At the EFSF's first bond issuance for Ireland in January, the fund could have sold nine times as many bonds as it was offering.
Regling said that the 3.59 percent was the highest interest rate the EFSF has had to accept so far, a development he blamed on the worsened situation financial markets and lack of detail on how the fund will be given more leverage. He said he hoped Monday's announcements would restore some confidence.

Goud sluipt naar 1800 dollar/ounce
Op November 7, 2011,Op z’n dooie gemakje sluipt goud richting 1800 dollar per ounce. Die prijs deed enkele maanden geleden nog gigantische headlines verschijnen, maar daar zien we vandaag niets meer van terug. En we weten allemaal wel wat dit betekent: hogere prijzen voor goud liggen in ‘t verschiet!

Greek default within the euro is the only real option
It was a possibility feared but unspoken – until last week. Suddenly a Greek exit from the euro was on the table. “Are you in or are you out?” Many Europeans no longer care. They should. Their leaders do. Here is why.
Greece will restructure. It can do so “within the euro” or it can do so “outside the euro”. The difference is crucial. If you already understand the distinction, stop reading here. If not, you may soon wish you had. For here is how an exit of Greece from the eurozone would play out:
1: The Greek cabinet decides an exit. Rumours begin to circulate. Greek citizens withdraw their euro deposits while they are still euros and not drachmas; supplies of banknotes run short; businesses shift their euro balances abroad. Foreign lenders to Greek businesses cancel credit lines. Banks close their doors.
2. Following an emergency cabinet meeting, the Greek government announces the new drachma. Capital controls are imposed and border patrols dispatched to enforce them. Public sector debt is redenominated in local currency. The value of the drachma plunges. Greek inflation soars.
3. Disputes erupt over private sector debt (for example a German bank’s loan to the Greek subsidiary of a multinational such as BMW). Is the obligation still a euro loan or is it now drachma-denominated? If it is a drachma loan then the German bank has a problem – a drachma asset worth a fraction of its euro book value. If, on the other hand, the obligation remains in euros then both bank and company have a problem as the Greek borrower now has a euro loan which it must service from depreciating drachma income.
4. Contagion commences. Portuguese citizens worry that it might happen there. Portuguese depositors begin to withdraw euros for fear they will soon be escudos. Companies in Portugal transfer funds abroad as a precaution. Banks close. Soon, similar scenes occur in Ireland with echoes elsewhere along the Mediterranean. Banks cease dealings with their “peripheral” counterparts.
5. Confusion mounts over the magnitude of European bank exposure to the private sector of the periphery. Trading with and between Europe’s banks stops. Bank stocks crater and haven assets rise. In response to an inward flood of capital Switzerland imposes punitive negative interest rates on non-resident deposits.
6. Bank lending across the EU ceases. Economic activity halts.
I could go on but you get the point. It is not a pretty picture. Let me just add the fact that European banking exposure to the private sector (corporations and households) of the “peripherals” is a multiple of that to the public sector (government debt) of the area. These numbers are not secret. They have appeared in the Financial Times.
The associated risks are what used to be called cross-border risks – a term well known to US bankers of a certain age who once recklessly lent dollars and pesos to the Mexican public and private sector – only to discover that sovereign risk involved not only the risk that the sovereign might not pay but also that the private sector might be prevented by law or currency changes from doing so.
Banks in Europe can be forgiven for making this mistake. The advent of the eurozone was to have abolished the notion of cross-border risk, n’est-ce pas? Was not a Munich bank lending to BMW Athens now akin to a New York bank lending to General Motors in San Francisco? That was the idea. Seemed sound, right? It is, if the eurozone hangs together.
A number of senior officials understood this early on. Others have taken time for the implications to sink in – so focused has been everyone’s attention on sovereign bond-related exposures. This explains the slow but predictable shift in rhetoric: from no default to “orderly default”, from default to “default within the euro” and more recently, “we will defend the euro at all costs”.
Yes, the European leadership has grasped the gory details. They must now share them with their constituents. The peoples of northern Europe need to understand that their interests lie not in hounding the Greeks out but in keeping them in.
And referendum or no, the Greek government must explain the consequences that a Greek exit from the euro would have for the Greek economy and its citizens. A Greek default within the euro is manageable and will be managed. Greek default outside the euro involves risks to a different order of magnitude.
This issue has been the elephant in the room – visible for all to see should anyone care to look. For a long time no one cared to. No one wanted to. Now they must.

Forex:
GBP/USD Consolidating in a Rising Wedge
The GBP/USD continues to be range-bound, but also formed a slightly rising short-term wedge seen in the 1H chart. Note the break above the 1.6062 high, but an immediate rejection. Meanwhile, dips have been held above a projected trendline support. The RSI movement reflects a range market as it is stuck between 40 and 60. Price action whipping back and forth the 200 period simple moving average also reflects a range-bound market in the short-term.
The 4H chart shows a market possibly forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern, with neckline near 1.5880. The market still looks bullish, trading above the 200SMA, with the RSI failing to dip below 40 after tagging 70. In fact, if the market can clear 1.6060, it might push toward 1.6165 high. A break above that high would also push the RSI above 60 and possibly above 70, indicating bullish continuation momentum.
A break above 1.6165 could be a major bullish signal toward the 1.6570-1.6480 pivots, then the 1.6614 high before the 2011 high of 1.6740.
However, the reversal scenario would come to the forefront with first a break below 1.5950 pivot. That suggests a test of the 1.5880 neckline. A break below that has a near-term support level right below it going down from 1.5850 to 1.5823. Below that we open up the 1.5680-1.5718 support cluster before the 61.8% retracement level at 1.5612. If the 4H RSI breaks below 40, we would have confirmation that the bullish momentum from the October-rally is gone. A complete reversal of the October rally is a re-test of the 2011 low at 1.5270.
Bank of England Meeting: The most important risk event for the GBP/USD this week will the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday at about 7:00AM ET. Expect a non-directional market ahead of this important meeting where we will see if new details will be provided about the central bank’s QE operation. Expansion of it is likely to drag down the GBP/USD for a completion and follow-through of the Head and Shoulder.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY Both in Possible Inverted Head and Shoulder Formation
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD found support heading into the 11/7 US trading session and is possibly forming the second shoulder to an inverted head and shoulder pattern. It is still too early to say, and only a break above the neckline area from 1.0428 to 1.0443 completes the bottoming pattern. The 1.05 pivot will be an important one, and if the market finds resistance there it could offer a throwback to test the bottoming attempt. If the market then finds support above 1.04, we would have a clearer upside bias that can extend toward 1.0540 (61.8% retracement), and the 1.0610 pivot. A conventional pattern breakout target is the width of the pattern toward the direction of the breakout. In the AUD/USD 's case, that target is projected to 1.0650, with 1.0635 being the 78.6% retracement. If the rally is a correction to the dip that started 10/27, then the maximum upside outlook is the 1.0635-1.0650 area for now.
A failure to break above form the bottoming pattern, of after forming it, a failure to break above 1.05, could be a sign that market wants to continue lower towards 1.02 and then toward parity.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
8:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed higher yesterday with the Dow (12068.39, up 0.71%) closing above the 12000 once again. Nasdaq (2695.25) was up 0.34%. Technically the 11900-850 Support region is holding well for the Dow and is keeping up the chances of seeing 12500-600 on the upside. On the other hand Nasdaq can test 2750-2800 on the upside while above 2600.
The Asian markets are trading mixed today as well. Australia (4349.70, up 0.33%) and Hong Kong (19776.79, up 0.50%) are trading higher while Nikkei (8751.86, down 0.17%), Shanghai (2506.05, down 0.15%) and Taiwan (7618.25, down 0.05%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (17562.61) and Nifty (5284.20) were closed yesterday. 18200-300 and 5400-5500 are the significant Resistance region to be watched on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (95.51) has risen further as expected to test is Resistance at 96. As mentioned yesterday, a strong break/close above 96 would open doors for revisiting 100 levels.
Gold (1793.20) has risen above its important Resistance at 1770. If it can sustain above 1170, we might see further rise towards 1850-70 in the coming days.
Silver (34.82) tested 35 on the upside yesterday and can test 36 while above 34.
Copper (3.53) remains weak as the Resistance near 3.65 is continuing to hold well and the metal can fall to 3.40-20 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The uncetainty in the market still remains and most of the currencies are caught in a sideways range. The Euro (1.3757) is ranged between the 200-MA (1.3688) Support and 100-MA (1.3851) Resistance on the 4-hr chart. Dollar-Yen (78.04) remains flat in between 77.90 and 78.30. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.38) is trading in 106.50-108.25 sideways range and Aussie (1.0347) is ranged between 1.0300-1.0450.
Cable (1.6054) and Dollar-Swiss (0.9040) are the only currencies which gives some clear outlook for the near term. Both the currencies are looking bullish for an immediate rise to 1.6130-50 and 0.9230-50 respectively.
In Asia the Korean-Won is trading near 1116 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2700. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 49.10/11 on Friday and could be ranged between 49.00-48.90 on the downside and 49.30-40 on the upside for some time.
INTEREST RATES
Mounting inflation and rising unemployment dent the EU Retail Sales further to -0.7% vis-�-vis previous release of -0.3%. Increasing borrowing cost as reflected by increasing sovereign bond yields is also a major concern. Italian 10Y yields inched up to 6.5% during last session. Note, 7% is a crucial threshold above which Greece, Portugal and Ireland screamed for bailout.
US treasuries remained stable yesterday apart from 10Y and 30Y yields dropped marginally by 4bps to 2.02 and 3.08 respectively. However German bund yields got compressed significantly at near end, 2Y yields slipped to 0.38% (-7bps) and 30Y to 2.58% (-5bps).
In India, yesterday markets were closed, we expect 10Y GOI yields now trading at 8.95% to test 9% during the month.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
De Nikkei 225 -/-1%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eu/usd zit in een downtrend.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 8 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Kendrion, cijfers KW3
- Phoenix Group, trading update KW3
- Van Lanschot, trading update KW3
- Air France-KLM, vervoerscijfers oktober
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, handelsbalans, september, 08.00 uur
- NL, omzet en productie industrie, september, 09.30 uur
WOENSDAG 9 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Air France-KLM, cijfers KW3
- Brill, trading update KW3, na beurs
- AMG, resultaten KW3
- Ageas, cijfers KW3
- NSI, trading update KW3
- Vastned O/I, cijfers KW3
- Vopak, cijfers KW3
- Wolters Kluwer, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 4 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, groothandelsvoorraden, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 4 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 10 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aegon, KW3
- Acomo, trading update KW3
- Crown van Gelder, trading update KW3
- Ctac, KW3
- Draka, cijfers KW3
- Galapagos, trading update KW3
- Grontmij, cijfers KW3
- Heijmans, trading update KW3
- Ordina, trading update KW3
- Roodmicrotec, trading update KW3
- Roto Smeets Group, trading update KW3, 8.30
- SNS Reaal, trading update KW3
- TKH Group, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, oktober, 8.00 uur
- NL, inflatie, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 5 november, 14.30 uur
- VS, importprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
VRIJDAG 11 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Alanheri, trading update KW3
- Dockwise, cijfers KW3
- Groothandelsgebouw, cijfers KW3
- Stern, cijfers KW3
- Telegraaf Media Group, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur

Topic:
–Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
–Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi is bereid op te stappen nadat het Italiaanse parlement heeft ingestemd met Berlusconi's bezuinigingsplannen voor 2012.
Berlusconi maakte dat dinsdagavond bekend na een gesprek met de Italiaanse president Giorgio Napolitano. In een verklaring had Napolitano al melding gemaakt van de uitkomst van het gesprek, en daarmee aangegeven dat Berlusconi bereid is te vertrekken. De stemming over de hervormingen staat gepland voor 15 november. Dinsdagmiddag verloor Berlusconi de meerderheid in het parlement bij een stemming ter goedkeuring van de begroting van 2010.
Het Italiaanse parlement keurde wel de begroting van 2010 goed. Dat kwam doordat de oppositie zich onthield van stemming. Berlusconi won de stemming met 308 stemmen voor. Voor een absolute meerderheid zijn 316 stemmen nodig. 321 parlementariërs brachten geen stem uit.
Het is de tweede keer dat de begroting van vorig jaar in stemming werd gebracht. Eerder kwam de goedkeuring er niet doorheen.

De aankondiging van het opstappen van de Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi heeft tot winst geleid op Wall Street.
De politieke machtstrijd in Rome leidde dinsdag lange tijd tot voorzichtigheid op de Amerikaanse beursvloer. Koersen bleven vlak, totdat de Italiaanse president het vertrek bekendmaakte van de mediamagnaat. Beleggers reageerden gematigd positief.
De Dow Jones-index sloot op 12.170,26 punten, een winst van 0,84%. De breder samengestelde S&P500 won 1,18% en sloot op 1275,93 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq eindigde met een plus van 1,2% op 2727,49 punten. Met weinig macrocijfers op de Amerikaanse agenda en een cijferseizoen dat op zijn einde loopt, keken beleggers dinsdag opnieuw naar Europa. Vorige week waren alle ogen gericht op Griekenland. Deze week heeft Italië de twijfelachtige eer in het middelpunt te staan van de belangstelling. In Rome vocht premier Silvio Berlusconi voor politiek lijfsbehoud. Vergeefs, zo bleek kort voor sluiting van de handel in New York. Toen maakte de Italiaanse president Giorgio Napolitano bekend dat 'il Cavaliere' de handdoek gooit en vertrekt zodra de bezuinigingsvoorstellen zijn goedgekeurd. De stemming over de hervormingen staat gepland voor 15 november.
Beleggers reageerden positief, hoewel van uitgelatenheid geen sprake was. Daarvoor zijn de problemen van Italië te groot en is politieke toekomst van het land te ongewis - ook zonder Berlusconi. Beleggers vrezen dat de derde economie van de eurozone door zijn enorme schuldenlast het lot van Griekenland achterna gaat, met mogelijk desastreuze gevolgen. De rente op 10-jarig Italiaans staatspapier steeg gisteren naar 6,7%.
Financiële fondsen, door blootstelling aan het Europese bankensysteem zeer kwetsbaar voor escalatie van de schuldencrisis, profiteerden van het vertrek van Berlusconi. Citigroup won 2,9% en Morgan Stanley steeg 2,4% op de Amerikaanse beurs.
Luxevilla´s
Het aandeel van Toll Brothers won 7,4% nadat de bouwer van luxevilla's beter dan verwachte kwartaalcijfers rapporteerde. Biotechnologiebedrijf Targacept was met een min van 60,2% de grootste verliezer. De firma maakte dinsdag teleurstellende testresultaten van een antidepressivum bekend.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn dinsdag hoger gesloten, nadat de Italiaanse premier Berlusconi een stemming over de bezuinigingsmaatregelen heeft gewonnen, zonder een meerderheid te verkrijgen.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot dinsdag 1,2% hoger op 2.303,20. De DAX-30 steeg 0,6% tot 5.961,44, de CAC-40 sloot 1,3% hoger op 3.143,30 en de FTSE-100 won 1,0% op 5.567,34.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds zijn dinsdag na een beweeglijke handelsdag licht hoger gesloten, waarbij alle ogen gericht waren op de Italiaanse politiek.

De Amsterdamse beurs is dinsdag met winst gesloten, omdat bedrijfscijfers van onder andere Vodafone goed vielen en financials profiteerden van koerswinst van Societe Generale.
De AEX-index sloot dinsdag 1,4% hoger op 303,98 punten. De Midkap sloot 0,4% hoger op 468,10 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,4% lager op 412,56 punten, gedragen door het koersverlies van 22% van Grontmij, dat een winstdaling, een slechte outlook en herstructureringen bekendmaakte en over 2011 het dividend waarschijnlijk passeert.

De olieprijs is dinsdag voor de vijfde dag op rij gestegen. De stijging van de afgelopen maand, die werd gedreven door een verkrappend aanbod en positieve economische data, kreeg daarmee een vervolg.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot dinsdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,28, of 1,3%, hoger op $96,80.

Forex:
USD/JPY Breaking Lower?
The yen weakened significantly following the Oct. 31 MoF/BoJ intervention. USD/JPY spiked higher to test trendline resistance and then pulled back to test the top of the daily ichimoku cloud. The pair drifted sideways above the cloud in the following days though many traders were looking for a reversion to pre-intervention levels in relatively short time (it only took 3 days following the Aug. 4 intervention for USD/JPY to revert to pre-intervention levels). Today's price action suggests that traders are beginning to put yen longs back on as USD/JPY trades heavy with a break below the top of the daily cloud (currently around 78.05/10) and break below a week-long triangle consolidation (seen on hourly candlesticks below). While intervention remains a key risk, the technicals suggest the potential for a move lower. As evidenced by previous interventions, efforts by Japanese officials to stem JPY gains have had little lasting impact. As such, we maintain a bullish bias on the yen as global growth concerns and political uncertainty is elevated. A daily close below the 100-day would signal continue momentum to the downside with the convergence of the 21 and 55-day SMA's around the 77.00 figure as immediate support ahead of record lows. To the upside, a daily close back above the top of the cloud would signal upside and may see the pair reluctant to move lower.

GBP/AUD Testing Neckline of an Inverted Head and Shoulder
The GBP/AUD is seen in the 4H chart trading under the 200 period simple moving average. This suggests a bearish market. However, we know that the short-term market is bullish as we have seen a rally since late October from 1.4994 to the 200SMA. This rally pushed the RSI reading above 70 reflecting bullish momentum. We also observe a bearish divergence reflecting the flattening of the rally since 1.4994 now that the market is trading around its 200SMA (mean price action). Now the question is whether it will carry through and complete a bottoming pattern.
The kilroy - another name for the inverted head and shoulder - has the neckline represented by the 200SMA. Or you could have drawn it with a slight upward tilt. If we do see a break to the upside, we can look for a rally toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.5837, seen in the daily chart. Note the range-bound nature of the market, but also a slight bullish bias as the RSI failed to reach 30 in the last 2 attempts, but has broken above 70 in the previous 2 attempts.
In a range-bound market like the one we see in the daily chart, the classic strategy for a bullish move within, is to wait for a dip instead of jumping on a rally.

Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Weakens as SNB Jordan Reversed Comments
Swiss Franc weakens sharply today after SNB Vice President Jordan reversed his earlier comments. Jordan said it's wrong for SNB to engage in competitive devaluation. Also, Jordan is suddenly optimistic that once European debt crisis subsides, safe-have flows to Swiss Franc will ease and the currency will weaken automatically. This is in sharp contrast of his earlier comments that pressure on franc will "remain for a while" as eurozone debt crisis "probably won't disappear" soon. Also, the comment reduces speculation that SNB is going to raise the floor of EUR/CHF to 1.25 or eve 1.3 level. Technically, EUR/CHF failed recent resistance of 1.2472 and would likely weakens back towards 1.21 level as recent consolidations continue.
Elsewhere, markets remain steady even though Italian 10 year yield jump to new euro-era record high of 6.71%. Traders are cautiously awaiting parliamentary vote on the austerity budget. Meanwhile, Greece Prime Minister Papandreou continues the talk with opposition on naming the premier of the national unity government. European stocks are mildly higher with major indices up 1-2% but there is no decisive follow through buying. Dollar index is back below 77 but remains in tight range.
On the data front, Canadian house starts rose slightly to 208k in October. UK industrial production rose 0.0% mom in September versus expectation of 0.1% mom, manufacturing production rose 0.2% mom versus expectation of 0.1% mom. BRC sales monitor dropped more than expected by -0.6% yoy in October. RICS house price balance dropped to -24 in October. SECO consumer confidence dropped more than expected to -24 in the quarter October. German trade surplus widened to EUR 15.3b in September. Australian trade surplus narrowed to AUD 2.56b in October while NAB business confidence improved to 2.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8776; (P) 0.8840; (R1) 0.8912.
USD/CHF's sharp fall suggests that a temporary top is formed at 0.9067 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Another rise remains in favor as long as 0.8761 minor support holds. Break of 0.9082 resistance will confirm that correction from 0.9315 is finished with three waves down to 0.8567 already. Also, this will indicate that recent rebound from 0.7065 is resuming. Further break of 0.9315 will target 61.8% projection of 0.7710 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9559 next. Though, break of 0.8761 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8567 and below to extend the fall from 0.9315.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. While further rise is now likely, we'd expect strong resistance at below 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and will bring another fall back to 0.7710/8246 to extend the consolidation.

US Session: Orders and Options Watch
GBP: The British pound rose again to a 1-week high of 1.6100 in London trading in part due to the release of slightly better-than-expected UK manufacturing and production data, however, offers from short-term specs and Asian CBs are reported at 1.6100-20 region and mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.6140-50 with bigger stops placed above 1.6170. On the downside, bids from big corps and Eastern European names are noted at 1.6030/35 and further out at 1.6000-10 with stops building up below 1.5970-80 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.5940.
EUR: The single currency rebounded in European session on speculation that new Greek PM will be decided soon, Asian and Middle East names were seen buying euro today and stops above 1.3810-20 are now in focus, however, offers from North Asian CBs are reported from 1.3820 up to 1.3850 with more stops seen above 1.3870/75 but more selling interests from same parties are tipped further out at 1.3900-10 (followed by stops above 1.3930). On the downside, buying interests are seen at 1.3750 and 1.3720-25 with stops placed below 1.3720 and 1.3680 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.3650.
CHF: It seemed comments from SNB official keep driving the Swiss franc both against euro and dollar, early remarks from Vice Chairman Jordan lifted the headline pair as he said EUR/CHF 1.2000 is still overvalued and should be weakened further, however, the pair quickly retreated from 0.9068 as he warned that on the central bank's aversion to engage in competitive devaluation, price quickly slipped after his comments and stops below 0.9000 were tripped, bids at 0.8960-70 were also filled, more stops are placed below 0.8940 with larger bids likely to emerge around 0.8900-10. On the upside, offers are now noted at 0.9000 and also 0.9030 with larger sell orders seen at 0.9060-70 (for protection of sizeable stops above 0.9085-90).
JPY: The greenback remained confined in narrow range but traded with a soft undertone, bids at 77.90-00 were very much cleared but buying interest from semi-official names are still noted at 77.75/80 and further out at 77.50-55 with sizeable stops tipped below latter level. On the upside, lowers from exporters are parked at 78.10 and also 78.30 with mixture of offers and stops remain at 78.45-50, larger selling interests are reported at 78.90-00 with large stops located at 79.10-20. Option expires today include 77.80 (100 mln) and 77.50 (200 mln).

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
13:00uur, 16:30 cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The equtiy markets are trading higher following the news that the Italian Prime Minister would resign. The US markets had closed higher yesterday. The Dow (12170.18) was up 0.84% and the Nasdaq (2727.49) was up 1.20%. The psychological Support level of 12000 is holding well and the Dow has bounced back from its intraday low of 12002.32 yesterday. This keeps alive the chances of testing 12400-600 on the upside.
The Asian markets are trading higher all over. Nikkei (8736.45) is up 0.94%, Shanghai (2512.85) is up 0.36%, Hong Kong (20042.85) is up 1.85%, Taiwan (7627.53) is up 0.35% and Australia (4412.20) is up 1.27%. The Sensex (17569.53, up 6.92 points) and Nifty (5289.35, up 5.15 points) had closed flat yesterday and can move up today following the other markets.
COMMODITIES
NYmex Crude (97.12) has risen past 96 and is now looking strong for a test of 100 on the upside. Immediate Support is seen at 96 and then significant Support is there at 94.
Gold (1792.70) is finding Resistance as of now to rise past 1800. While 1800 holds, there could chances of seeing a dip to 1770-50. But the broader picture now looks bullish for a rise to 1850-70 in the coming days on a strong break above 1800.
Silver (35.12) is slowly inching up and is keeping up the chances of testing its next significant Resistance at 36. Whether 36 holds or breaks will determine the further direction of move.
Copper (3.57) is ranged between 3.50-3.65 over the last few days. We will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range. Our bias remains bearish and we expect a downside break below 3.50 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3839) has reacted well to Berlusconi's resignation and may have chances of rising towards 1.3900-50. The Pound (1.6101) has been outperforming the Euro for the past few days, but may find Resistance at the 200-day MA (1.6140) today. The Aussie (1.0368) is underperforming the Euro and is likely to be ranged between 1.03-05 for the next few days.
Diverse moves are being seen in currencies again and it would be good to keep an eye on what the Euro Crosses are doing.
Dollar-Yen (77.55) has come off from the 78 region and could dip further towards 77.25. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.30) is ranged between 107.10-60 for now. Important Support is seen at 106.80.
Dollar-Swiss (0.8950), notably, is consolidating its rise and may have good Support at 0.8825 on dips. It is interesting that the Swiss Franc has been weakening since August whereas Gold (1791) has recovered a good part of its losses since August. At the same time, the Euro has been able to claw back a bit from its September low near 1.3144. Risk perceptions are shifting, it would seem, and adjustments are being made. To decipher them is challenging.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1116.10) is trading relatively strong. The USD-SGD (1.2690) looks set for volatile sideways trading between 1.2550-2750 for the next few days. Dollar-Rupee (49.47) may dip a little today as Resistance is expected in the 49.50-55 region.
INTEREST RATES
In US, yields in 2Y treasuries increased to 0.25% (+2bps), 10Y to 2.07% (+5bps) and 30Y to 3.14% (+ 6bps).
In India, 10Y GOI yields came off to 8.80% (-15bps).

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Consumentenprijzen China stijgen harder dan verwacht. De Nikkei 225 +1.14%. De AEX futures laten een hogere opening zien. Eu/usd uptrend.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 9 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Air France-KLM, cijfers KW3
- Brill, trading update KW3, na beurs
- AMG, resultaten KW3
- Ageas, cijfers KW3
- NSI, trading update KW3
- Vastned O/I, cijfers KW3
- Vopak, cijfers KW3
- Wolters Kluwer, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 4 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, groothandelsvoorraden, september, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 4 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 10 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aegon, KW3
- Acomo, trading update KW3
- Crown van Gelder, trading update KW3
- Ctac, KW3
- Draka, cijfers KW3
- Galapagos, trading update KW3
- Grontmij, cijfers KW3
- Heijmans, trading update KW3
- Ordina, trading update KW3
- Roodmicrotec, trading update KW3
- Roto Smeets Group, trading update KW3, 8.30
- SNS Reaal, trading update KW3
- TKH Group, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, oktober, 8.00 uur
- NL, inflatie, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 5 november, 14.30 uur
- VS, importprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
VRIJDAG 11 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Alanheri, trading update KW3
- Dockwise, cijfers KW3
- Groothandelsgebouw, cijfers KW3
- Stern, cijfers KW3
- Telegraaf Media Group, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De politieke partijen in Griekenland hebben een akkoord bereikt over de vorming van een nieuwe coalitie, meldt de Griekse staatstelevisie woensdag. Vertrekkend premier Papandreou gaat om vijf uur Nederlandse tijd op bezoek bij de Griekse president Karolos Papoulias.
Daar zou Papandreou het ontslag van zijn kabinet indienen. Vervolgens zou bekend worden wie de nieuwe premier is. Het bezoek aan Papoulias zou eerst om vier uur Nederlandse tijd plaatsvinden, maar is om onduidelijke redenen een uur uitgesteld.
De vorming van de nieuwe Griekse regering van nationale eenheid verloopt moeizaam. Woensdagochtend meldde een woordvoerder van de regering dat de nieuwe regering nog voor het middaguur zou worden gepresenteerd, maar die om 11 uur geplande bekendmaking ging niet door. Groot twistpunt was wie de nieuwe premier van het land werd. Dat is ook nu nog niet duidelijk.
Voormalig vicevoorzitter van de Europese Centrale Bank Lucas Papademos leek goede papieren te hebben, maar dat is nu zeer twijfelachtig. Volgens sommige media is dat omdat Papademos onredelijke eisen zou hebben gesteld, volgens andere omdat minister van financiën Evangelos Venizelos het niet eens is met Papademos' voornemen om het hele economische team te vervangen.
Andere namen die rondgaan zijn die van parlementsvoorzitter Filippos Petsalnikos en de socialistische parlementariër Apostolos Kaklamanis. Beiden ontkennen de nieuwe premier te worden. Volgens persbureau Reuters wordt het nu Vassilios Skouris, de voorzitter van het Europese Hof van Justitie. Als hij het wordt zou Venizelos minister van financiën blijven, meldt Reuters.
Wat de vorming van een brede coalitie ingewikkelder maakt, is de onenigheid binnen de conservatieve partij Nea Demokratie van oppositieleider Antonis Samaras. Die partij ageerde altijd tegen nieuwe door Europa opgelegde bezuinigingen, maar afgelopen week ging Samaras toch akkoord met nieuwe bezuinigingen om zo de vorming van een nieuwe regering mogelijk te maken. Dat levert interne verdeeldheid binnen de partij op. Onder druk van zijn tegenstanders in de partij sputtert Samaras nu tegen de door de EU verlangde schriftelijke verklaring dat hij akkoord is met de bezuinigingen.
De nieuwe regering zal zo'n 100 dagen zitten, tot de verkiezingen in februari. Belangrijkste taak is het doorvoeren van de door Europa gewenste bezuinigingen om een faillissement van het land af te wenden.
Volgens partijleden van de regerende socialistische partij bevind de partij zich in een "chaos" nadat een groot deel van de afgevaardigden dreigden de nieuw te vormen coalitieregering niet te steunen als Filippos Petsalnikos, de huidige parlementsvoorzitter, de nieuwe premier zou worden.
Scheidend premier George Papandreou had Petsalnikos eerder naar voren geschoven.
"De telefoons rinkelen non-stop en velen zeggen dat de keuze voor Petsalnikos een farce is. Het is een chaotische situatie", aldus een van de partijleden.
Daarnaast zijn volgens het partijlid de minister van transport Giannis Ragousis en minister van onderwijs Anna Diamantopoulos ook tegen de kandidatuur van Petsalnikos. Beiden waren echter niet direct bereikbaar voor commentaar.
Eerder op de dag nam Papandreou afscheid in een op televisie uitgezonden toespraak en bezocht hij de Griekse president Karolos Papoulias om zijn ontslag aan te bieden. Daarnaast zou Papandreou samen met Papoulias, de conservatieve oppositieleider Antonis Samaras en George Karatzaferis, de leider van de kleinere nationalistische partij, spreken over zijn voorstel Petsalnikos tot zijn opvolger te benoemen.
Karatzaferis stormde het presidentiele paleis echter uit voordat de bijeenkomst begon en vertelde verslaggevers dat tenzij voormalig vice-president van de Europese Centrale Bank Lucas Papademos de nieuwe premier wordt er "grote problemen komen vanuit het land."
De bijeenkomst is uitgesteld tot donderdagochtend en volgens een tweede partijlid was het onduidelijk of president Papoulias het ontslag van Papandreou geaccepteerd had.
"Ik denk van niet", aldus het partijlid. "Het land kan niet functioneren zonder een premier."
Volgens het eerste partijlid zal het "heel lastig worden voor Papandreou om de keuze voor Petsalnikos door te zetten", en is het goed mogelijk dat Papandreou Papademos nogmaals vraagt leiding te geven aan de coalitieregering.
Papademos was niet direct bereikbaar voor commentaar.
Tot aan dinsdag gaven leden van zowel de socialistische als conservatieve partij aan dat er overeenstemming bestond over de benoeming van Papademos. Maar woensdagochtend werd gesteld dat minister van financien Evangelos Venizelos had gereageerd op de kandidatuur van Papademos en dat het daarom van de baan was.
Venizelos ontkent echter dat hij zijn veto heeft uitgesproken over de kandidatuur van Papademos.
Het is een absolute noodzaak voor Griekenland een coalitieregering te vormen, omdat de internationale partners de volgende tranche aan financiele steun ter waarde van EUR8 miljard anders niet uit zullen keren. Griekenland heeft uitbetaling van de tranche deze maand of begin december nodig om niet failliet te gaan.

Een recordhoge Italiaanse rente en wisselende berichten over een nieuwe Griekse coalitie drukken woensdag de stemming op Wall Street.
De Italiaanse rente op staatsobligaties met een looptijd van tien jaar steeg woensdag naar 7,5 %, het hoogste niveau sinds de invoering van de euro. Beleggers vrezen dat de toenemende rente zal leiden tot een verdere escalatie van de Europese schuldencrisis.
Onrust
Zowel de S&P 500 als de Nasdaq verloor rond middaguur al meer dan 3%. Een dag eerder nog leidde de aankondiging van het opstappen van de Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi tot een winst op Wall Street. De onrust woensdag ontstond omdat er twijfel bestaat over de positie van Berlusconi tijdens nieuwe verkiezingen in Italië.
De Grieken lieten woensdagavond weten toch nog geen akkoord te hebben bereikt over de nieuwe Griekse coalitie. Politici hebben de gesprekken naar donderdagochtend uitgesteld. Politieke leiders in Europa lieten in grote getallen weten dat er nu snel een concreet plan moet komen om de situatie in Europa te sturen.
De Dow Jones-index sloot 3,33% lager op 11.769,14 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq eindigde 3,9% lager op 2621,65 punten en de S&P 500 noteerde bij het slot een verlies van 3,67% op 1229,10 punten.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn woensdag lager gesloten, vanwege een rendementsverhoging op Italiaanse staatspapieren nadat clearing house LCH de kosten voor het handelen in Italiaanse leningen heeft verhoogd.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 2,3% lager op 2.249,39. De DAX-30 daalde 2,2% tot 5.829,54, de CAC-40 sloot 2,2% lager op 3.075,16 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,9% op 5.460,38.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag hoger gesloten, vanwege een vlucht naar 'veilige' beleggingen doordat beleggers bezorgd zijn dat Italie het volgende land is dat slachtoffer wordt van de Europese schuldencrsisis.

De Amsterdamse beurs is woensdag met een ruim verlies gesloten. Angst dat Italie het volgende slachtoffer in de schuldencrisis wordt, zorgde voor dieprode koersen op de Europese beurzen.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 3,2% lager op 294,40 punten. De Midkap daalde 2,2% op 457,61 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 1,5% in de min op 406,25 punten.

Brent Oil
Het korte termijn plaatje is verbeterd. De koers is immers goed opgeveerd vanaf de sleepkabel rond circa 109,00. Momenteel zijn de bullen aangekomen bij de weerstandzone op 115-116. Als zij hier uitbreken, wordt de serie lagere toppen afgebroken en kunnen de stieren een nieuwe stijgende trendfase starten. Onder afgerond 109,00 keren de beren terug op het speelveld.Kortom, een positief getint plaatje met duidelijke kantelpunten. Zolang de koers boven 109 noteert, is een koopconditie valide De lange termijn uptrend wordt hervat. De koers heeft lange tijd in een correctieve fase gevangen gezeten, maar lijkt hier nu uit te breken. Op afgerond 106 veerden de stieren precies op vanaf de sleepkabel. Tevens veert de RSI op vanaf de 50-lijn,
een extra zetje in de rug voor de stier. Al met al maken zij zich op voor een nieuwe significante beweging. Momenteel hangen hikken zij tegen de weerstand op 116, hierboven ligt het veld open richting 120 en 126. Onder afgerond 106 eindigt de hervatting van de uptrend en zullen de
beren toeslaan. Er gaat een koopconditie van start. Gebruik de weerstanden 116-120-126 voor een driestaps strategie.
De olieprijs is woensdag voor de eerste keer in zes handelssessies lager gesloten, nadat eerder op de dag het hoogste prijspeil in drie maanden werd bereikt.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,06 lager op $95,74.

Forex:
Euro Dollar “Richtingloos plaatje.....”
Op de daggrafiek hangen de stieren op een belangrijk draaipunt. Wanneer zij de sleepkabel op circa 1,385 opwaarts weten te kruisen, krijgen de bulls de ruimte tot aan 1,42. Aangezien de RSI al de 50-lijn opwaarts passeert, is dit een waarschijnlijk scenario. Echter, mochten de beren net op tijd de stier terugroepen en de koers onder de sleepkabel houden, dan kunnen zij onder afgerond 1,36 flink toeslaan richting 1,32. Al met al is er de laatste dagen weinig actie, boven 1,385 of onder 1,36 is er meer vuurwerk te verwachten Op de weekgrafiek is er sprake van een
twijfelachtig beeld. De koers laat een sprieterig verloop zien rond de vlakke sleepkabel. Tevens schommelt de spanningsmeter rond de 50-lijn. Kortom, de koers lijkt geen duidelijke richting te kunnen kiezen. Om het overzicht te bewaren moet je de kantelpunten op afgerond 1,425
en 1,36 goed in de gaten. Buiten deze kantelpunten is er meer duidelijkheid over het toekomstige scenario en is een grotere beweging te verwachten. Hou het kruit even droog. De koers lijkt geen richting te kunnen kiezen.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
8:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30uur uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The market focus/fear is now turning towards Italy and the confusion in Greece to form a new government is also keeping up the uncertainty in the markets. As a result, the equity markets are bleeding all over.
The US markets tanked yesterday. The Dow (11780.94) was down 3.2% and the Nasdaq (2621.65) was down 3.88%. With this sharp fall yesterday, the chances of seeing 12500-600 on the upside has reduced and now we see a threat of a Double-Top formation on the Dow chart. Click on the following link:
www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtml#candle
The Asian markets are also trading sharply lower today with all the markets trading down more than 1%. Australia (4291.60) is down 2.63%, Nikkei (8549.94) is down 2.35%, Shanghai (2495.88) is down 1.15%, Hong Kong (19095.65) is down 4.59% and Taiwan (7318.06) is down 3.24%. The Sensex (17362.10, down 207.43 points) and Nifty (5221.05, down 68.30 points) had closed lower yesterday. The Indian markets are closed today on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti holiday.
COMMODITIES
The Euro zone debt crisis is keeping the marekts pressured on the downside and it triggered a sharp sell off in the Commodity space yesterday and the focus/fear is now shifting towards Italy.
Nymex Crude (95.46) failed to sustain above 96 and has come off from its high of 97.84. Important Support is seen in 94.00-93.00 region and a strong break below it would trigger further fall.
Gold (1758.10) failed for the second consecutive day to see a strong rise past 1800 and can now test 1730-00 on the downside on a further break below the immediate Support at 1750.
Silver (33.77) has found Resistance in 35.00-50 region and can test 33.00-32.50 on the downside while below 34.
Copper (3.35) has broken its 3.50-65 sideways range on the downside as expected and is keeping up our bearish view intact. A revisit of 3.20-00 on the downside is possible now.
CURRENCIES
Global slump? After the atrocious trade deficit figures released by India a couple of days ago (-$19.9 bln), China's exports have slowed from 17.1% in September to 15.9% in October.
The Euro (1.3545) saw a protracted decline yesterday as the market trained its guns on Italian bonds, sending the 5-Yr Yld 7.56%, driving the Italy-Germany spread to 675 bp. The obvious thought that comes to mind is, this way Spain has to be next. The 1.33-32 levels can be revisited.
Dollar-Yen is steady at 77.77 but Dollar-Swiss (0.9112) has risen further. The Pound (1.5927) has crashed and the Aussie (1.0145) has also fallen substantially and can possibly target 1.0000 over the course of the day.
Cash is King (even Gold has not been spared) and the Dollar Index has shot up to 77.99.
The ADXY (115.98) has fallen below 116.00. The USD-SGD (1.2910) has seen a high of 1.2944. The Korean Won has weakened to 1133.14. The Rupee market is closed today on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti, else we would have expected an Open near 50.30-40.
INTEREST RATES
In US, treasury yields across all tenors fell further releasing all its gains during previous day. The 2Y closed at 0.23% (-2bps), 5Y at 0.88% (-4bps) 10Y at 2.00% (-7bps) and 30Y at 3.04% (10bps). Like its US counterpart German bunds yields has also came off significantly with far end fell more, 2Y to 0.35% (-5bps) and 30Y to 2.46% (-12bps).
In Asia, Chinese inflation plummeted to 5.5% (YoY) from its 6.1% for September. World Bank sees that Chinese inflation has topped at 6.5% in July and it will fall further during the year. In a release yesterday Moody has downgraded Indian banking sector to negative from stable with an apprehension that asset quality may fall on rising interest rates. The GOI 10Y bond yield increased to 8.92% increased by 0.82%.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Handelsoverschot China neemt toe. De Nikkei 225 diep in rood -2.91%. De AEX futures laten een lagere opening zien. Eu/usd downtrend.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 10 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Aegon, KW3
- Acomo, trading update KW3
- Crown van Gelder, trading update KW3
- Ctac, KW3
- Galapagos, trading update KW3
- Heijmans, trading update KW3
- Ordina, trading update KW3
- Roodmicrotec, trading update KW3
- Roto Smeets Group, trading update KW3, 8.30
- SNS Reaal, trading update KW3
- TKH Group, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inflatie, oktober, 8.00 uur
- NL, inflatie, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, handelsbalans, september, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 5 november, 14.30 uur
- VS, importprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
VRIJDAG 11 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Alanheri, trading update KW3
- Dockwise, cijfers KW3
- Groothandelsgebouw, cijfers KW3
- Stern, cijfers KW3
- Telegraaf Media Group, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur
DINSDAG 15 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Accell, trading update KW3
- Hal holding, trading update KW3
- New Sources Energy, aandeelhoudersvergadering
- Punch graphix, trading update KW3
- Atrium, resultaten KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, voorlopige cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, bbp, KW3, 11.00 uur
- Dui, ZEW-index, november, 11.00 uur
- VS, consumentenprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 16 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- AEG Power Solutions, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, inflatie, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VK, inflatierapport BoE, 11.30 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 11 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, oktober, 15.15 uur
- VS, NAHB huizenmarktindex, november, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 11 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

Wall Street werd gisteren even opgeschrikt door kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's, dat Frankrijk per abuis een lager oordeel had gegeven. Nadat de rust was teruggekeerd eindigden alle indexen in het groen.
De Dow Jones-index sloot 0,96% hoger op 11.893,86 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq eindigde 0,13% hoger op 2625,15 punten en de S&P 500 noteerde bij het slot een winst van 0,86% op 1239,70 punten. De handelsdag begon optimistisch na het bericht dat de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) Italiaanse obligaties had opgekocht, en het land met succes een nieuwe staatslening had uitgeschreven. De rente voor Italië daalde weer tot onder de kritieke 7%-grens.
De stemming sloeg tijdelijk om toen kredietbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's in een bericht de waardering voor Frankrijk verlaagd leek te hebben. 'Een technische fout', aldus S&P, dat de AAA-waardering van het land herbevestigde. De Franse rente op tienjarige staatsleningen was inmiddels gestegen naar het hoogste niveau sinds juli (ten opzichte van de Duitse rente).
Amerikaans macronieuws zorgde voor optimisme. Het aantal nieuwe werkloosheidsuitkeringen kwam uit op het laagste niveau in zeven maanden. Het Amerikaanse handelstekort daalde in september sterker dan verwacht, met 4% tot $ 43,1 mrd.
Fed-voorzitter Ben Bernanke zei bij een toespraak in Texas dat de centrale bank zich 'met aandacht' zal richten op het verlagen van de werkloosheid. Bernanke meldde verder dat de inflatie onder controle is voor 'de naaste toekomst'.
Leverancier van netwerkproducten Cisco Systems won 5,68% na publicatie van kwartaalcijfers die de verwachtingen overtroffen. De winst (exclusief enkele posten) steeg naar 43 dollarcent per aandeel, waar analisten rekenden op 39 dollarcent per aandeel.
Bank of America schrapte het plan om mensen met een betaalrekening ook op krediet te laten kopen. Vorige week besloot het al om toch maar geen geld voor het gebruik van een betaalpas te vragen. Het aandeel daalde 2,11%. De Nasdaq werd onder meer gedrukt door koffiebedrijf Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, dat tegenvallende kwartaalcijfers presenteerde en keihard werd afgestraft met een koersdaling van 38,99%.
De euro won na het foutje van S&P weer terrein ten opzichte van de dollar en stond bij het slot van Wall Street 0,6% hoger op $ 1,360.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren verdeeld gesloten, waarbij de markt met name dreef op de ontwikkelingen in Italie en Griekenland en macro-economisch nieuws.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 0,3% hoger op 2.254,92. De DAX-30 steeg 0,7% tot 5.867,81, de CAC-40 sloot 0,3% lager op 3.064,84 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,3% op 5.444,82.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag lager gesloten, waarbij de markt met name dreef op de ontwikkelingen in Italie en Griekenland en macro-economisch nieuws. Het gemiddelde rendement op 1-jarig Italiaans staatspapier steeg donderdag tot een recordhoogte. Italie ontving EUR10 miljard aan biedingen voor de EUR5 miljard aan beschikbare staatsleningen, waardoor gesproken wordt over een "succesvolle" veiling en de risicobereidheid onder beleggers toenam. Het gemiddelde rendement op de 1-jarige lening bereikte een recordhoogte sinds de invoering van de euro en was met 6,087% sterk hoger dan de 3,57% tijdens de vorige veiling van 1-jarig staatspapier in oktober.
Het rendement op 10-jarige Italiaanse staatsleningen nam donderdag sterk af en daalde tot 6,93%, nadat het rendement eerder in de sessie 7,33% noteerde.
De risicobereidheid onder beleggers nam eerder op de dag al toe door het gerucht dat de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) het Securities Markets Program (SMP), een obligatie-inkoopprogramma, gaat vergroten en wellicht de limiet schrapt.
Daarnaast werd op basis van onbevestigde bronnen bekend dat de Italiaanse premier Silvio Berlusconi zaterdag of zondag zijn ontslag zal indienen en daarmee de deur naar een noodregering opent. Voormalig vice-president van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) Lucas Papademos wordt de nieuwe Griekse premier, bevestigde het kantoor van president Karolos Papoulias gisteren. Op macro-economisch vlak werd donderdag bekend dat de consumentenprijzen in Duitsland, de grootste economie van de eurozone, in oktober ten opzichte van september conform de verwachting ongewijzigd zijn gebleven en op jaarbasis zoals verwacht zijn gestegen met 2,5%.
De bundfuture voor december eindigde donderdag 26 basispunten lager op 138,55. De Duitse bundfuture is een standaardtermijncontract op een mandje van de tien meest recente tienjarige staatsleningen in Duitsland. Kredietwaardigheidsbeoordelaar Standard & Poor's heeft donderdag de triple-A rating van Frankrijk herbevestigd, na eerder per abuis een bericht afgegeven te hebben dat de kredietwaardigheid van het land neerwaarts werd bijgesteld.
"De kredietwaardigheid van Frankrijk blijft AAA/A-1+ met een stabiele outlook", liet het bedrijf middels een rectificatie weten. De kredietwaardigheidsbeoordelaar zei vanwege een technische fout het bericht over de downgrade van Frankrijk naar zijn abonnees verzonden te hebben. Het bedrijf meldde de oorzaak van de fout te onderzoeken en benadrukte tevens dat het incident op geen enkele wijze betekent dat S&P de kredietwaardigheid van het land bestudeert of heroverweegt.

De Amsterdamse beurs is Gisteren vlak gesloten, tijdens een volatiele sessie waarbij de markt met name dreef op de ontwikkelingen in Italie en Griekenland en macro-economisch nieuws.
De AEX-index sloot donderdag vlak op 294,32 punten. De Midkap verloor 1,4% op 451,44 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,9% lager op 398,38 punten.

Gold
“Stieren stomen door....” De stieren breken wederom uit. De weerstand op afgerond 1750 en
tegelijkertijd de sleepkabel zijn onlangs weggeslagen, waardoor de top op circa 1900 in beeld komt. Echter, momenteel doen de stieren vanaf afgerond 1803 een klein stapje terug. Tevens draait de RSI terug net onder de OB-lijn. Vooralsnog biedt dit geen gevaar voor de stijgende
trendfase. Zolang de koers boven de sleepkabel op circa 1750 noteert is het plaatsen van een hogere bodem het meest waarschijnlijk scenario. Boven 1803 vervolgen de stieren de weg omhoog richting circa 1900. De weekgrafiek oogt ijzersterk. Na een mooie uptrendhervatting vanaf 1533,40 produceren de stieren alleen maar witte candles. Vorige week werd tevens de
1753 weerstand weggeslagen, waardoor de opmars kon worden voortgezet. Met deze voortgang krabbelen de stieren lekker op richting de top op 1921. Daar wordt het spannend, een top onder 1920 of een dubbele top rond 1920 doet de trend afzwakken, de beer krijgt dan een kans flink toe te slaan. Kortom, zolang de candles wit kleuren huppelen de stieren vrolijk verder, maar bij een zwarte candle in de 1900-1920 zone oppassen De koopconditie doet het goed. Zolang de
candles wit kleuren blijven zitten.

Silver
“Gevecht rond de sleepkabel....” Zolang de koers onder de sleepkabel op afgerond 36,00 noteert is de opleving van de stier slechts een herstelbeweging. Hierboven draait het sentiment en is
er sprake van een nieuwe stijgende trendfase. De koers deed recent een stapje terug vanaf 35,69 naar afgerond 33,00, een extra aanloopje om vervolgens de sleepkabel te breken? De strijd is heftig rond de lijn, maar zolang de koers er onder blijft hangen, zegevieren de beren, zij
houden dan de trend intact. Verkoopconditie is nog valide met 35,69 als cruciaal draai- of kantelpunt. Onder 33,14 additionele short posities openen. De koers hangt op een cruciaal draaipunt. De huidige weekcandle noteert precies op de sleepkabel. Tevens noteert de RSI
tegen de 50-lijn. Kortom, een moment waarop een nieuwe significante beweging te verwachten is. Zolang de koers onder de weerstand op 35,69 noteert, ligt topvorming voor het hervatten van de dalende trend voor de hand. Echter, boven de weerstand op 35,69 zullen de stieren een breakoutbeweging starten richting circa 40,00, waar een dalende weerstandlijn de markt binnenkomt. Kortom, er op of er onder voor de zilverstier. Speculanten loeren op topvorming rond de sleepkabel. Echter, boven 35,69 zijn longposities gerechtvaardigd.

Forex:
FX Thoughts for the Day
USD-CHF @ 0.9045/48...Can dip further 11 november
R: 0.9135 / 0.9200 / 0.9230-50
S: 0.9025 / 0.8950 / 0.8900
Dollar-Swiss fell sharply breaking below its 0.9100-9070 Support region. Any bounce back if needs to be seen has to happen from current level. Failure to bounce back from current levels can pull the pair further down towards 0.9000-8950 in the coming sessions. 0.8950 and 0.8900 are the signficant Support levels seen on the downside. A fresh upmove can be seen from these Support levels.
Holding:
USD 10K Long at 0.9110, SL 0.9030, TP 0.9190
USD 10K Long at 0.9075, SL 0.9020, TP 0.9220
Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5934/37...Support in 1.5900-5870 region holding well
R: 1.5950 / 1.6020-50 / 1.6130-50
S: 1.5900-5870 / 1.5840 / 1.5800
The Support in 1.5900-5870 region is holding well and Cable is bouncing back from its low of 1.5890. While above 1.5900, there could be chances of testing 1.6030-50 on the upside. Also a rise to 1.6030-50 will ease the threat of a Double-Top on the daily chart and it could increase the chances of keeping the pair in a sideways range between 1.5900-5870 on the downside and 1.6130-50 on the upside. We will have to wait and see what happens.
Aussie AUD-USD @ 1.0165/68...Sell rallies
R: 1.0200 / 1.0235-50 / 1.0300
S: 1.0147 / 1.0100 / 1.0050
Aussie dipped further during the day, but did not extend its downmove to 1.000 that we had expected. Instead it had bounced back well from its low of 1.0052 and is now trading above the 200-MA on the 4-hr chart (currently at 1.0147). While above this 200-MA on the 4-hr, we see good chances of further rise to 1.0200-35 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier, 1.0230-50 will be an important Resistance region to be watched and we will be looking to sell in this Resistance region.
We got stopped out of the Short position entered at 1.0095 losing 60 pips.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 1.0230, SL 1.0420, TP 1.0030

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to the strongest against the dollar since Japan’s government intervened on Oct. 31 to weaken it as concern Europe’s spreading debt crisis will dent global growth spurred investors to seek haven assets.
The Japanese currency was poised to gain against all 16 major counterparts this week before Italy sells as much as 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) of five-year bonds on Nov. 14, testing investor appetite for the nation’s debt. The dollar strengthened against most peers in the five-day period after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said Europe remains the “central challenge” to growth.
“The Japanese themselves are, at least very recently, not investing much offshore, and in fact pulling money back to Japan,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “In this sort of an environment the yen is a genuine safe haven because it’s a current account-surplus currency.”
The yen advanced to 77.50 per dollar, the strongest since Japan sold the currency Oct. 31, and was at 77.56 as of 1:34 p.m. in Tokyo from 77.65 yesterday in New York. It fetched 105.70 against the euro from 105.66, set for a 2 percent climb this week. The euro traded at $1.3626 from $1.3606 yesterday and $1.3792 last week.
Italy’s 10-year government bond yield soared to as high as 7.48 percent on Nov. 9. Bond investors charged the nation an interest rate of 6.087 percent yesterday to buy 5 billion euros of one-year bills, the highest in 14 years.
Italian Austerity Vote
Italy’s Senate will vote on debt-reduction measures today in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti.
“There’s still a lot to muddle through,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne. “The dollar and the yen will still be attracting those safe haven flows.”
The dollar gained 1.2 percent and the yen has appreciated 2.2 percent this week, according to Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. The two currencies were the best performers among the 10 developed-nation peers tracked by the gauges.
The yen tends to strengthen in periods of financial and economic stress because Japan’s export-reliant economy doesn’t need foreign capital to balance current accounts -- the broadest measure of trade. The dollar tends to rise because of its status as the world’s reserve currency.
Far-Reaching Impact
Europe’s debt woes may have an impact beyond its borders, with concern mounting about the outlook for the global economy. Hong Kong’s economic expansion likely weakened in the third quarter from the year before, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data is reported today.
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25 percent today, in line with forecasts. Bank Negara Malaysia will also keep its benchmark overnight policy rate at 3 percent today, a separate survey showed.
Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly cut rates by half a percentage point to a record 6 percent yesterday to shield the economy from a faltering global recovery. The world’s fourth- most populous nation joined countries from Brazil to Australia in lowering borrowing costs to boost spending at home.
Geithner, who is in Honolulu attending the 21-nation Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation conference, said in prepared remarks that the APEC countries are all directly affected by the euro-zone crisis and he encouraged them “to take steps to strengthen growth in the face of these pressures from Europe.”
Azumi On Guard
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he’s on guard against speculative yen trades while declining to comment on whether the nation has been selling the currency this month.
Japan intervened after the yen reached a post-World War II high of 75.35 per dollar on Oct. 31. Barclays Bank Plc and Tokyo-based Totan Research Co. estimate that the nation sold 8 trillion yen ($103 billion) that day, based on changes in the central bank’s balance sheet.
The euro maintained yesterday’s gain against the dollar after former European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos was given the mandate to form a Greek unity government.
Italian President Giorgio Napolitano met Monti yesterday in Rome for a “courtesy visit” a day after making him a senator for life, which will grant him voting rights in the Senate.
Papademos, Monti
“We’ve had confirmation of Papademos and strong indications that Mario Monti will take over in Italy -- you could scarcely choose names that the market would like to see more,” said Westpac’s Callow. “With so many speculators already short euro, we’re probably in for a little stability and maybe even a creep higher for the next session or two.”
The 17-nation euro was still headed for its second weekly loss versus the dollar before reports next week that may show the region’s economy is struggling to recover.
Euro-zone industrial production probably declined 1.5 percent in September, according to the median estimate of six economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the figures are released on Nov. 14. A report the following day may show the region’s gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the same pace as the previous period, according to a separate survey. That’s the slowest expansion since the three months ended June 2009 when it contracted.
“The macro backdrop in Europe is still very weak and could get worse,” said IG Markets’ Weston. “I wouldn’t rule out a move in the medium term in the euro to around $1.30 or below.”
The European Commission yesterday cut the region’s growth forecast for next year to 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent. It predicts the economy may expand 1.5 percent this year, down from a previous projection of 1.6 percent.
The euro will be at $1.35 by year-end, according to the median estimate of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
15:55uur cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The unexpected drop in the US unemployment claims, progress in Greece government formation and better than expected Italian bond sales yesterday has slightly eased the market concerns yesterday after wednesday's sharp fall.
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. The Dow (11893.79) was up 0.96% while the Nasadaq (2625.15) had closed flat. The US is on holiday today on account of the Veteran's day. But the stock markets are open and trading could be muted with low volumes. We will have to wait and see how the markets closes today for the week.
The Asian markets are trading higher except for the Nikkei (8487.50, down 0.16%). Australia (4330.70, up 0.54%), Shanghai (2479.94, up 0.02%), Hong Kong (19144.80, up 0.95%) and Taiwan (7346.87, up 0.49%) are trading higher today. The Indian markets were closed yesterday. The Sensex (17362.10) and Nifty (5221.05) has important Support near current levels in 17300-200 and 5200-5170 region respectively. A strong break below this Support region would trigger further fall in the Indian markets.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (97.73) had bounced back once again well above 96 following the good economic data release from the US and developments in Greece and Italy. A test of 100 looks likely once again while above 96.
Sell off in Gold (1768.20) continued yesterday and it fell to a low of 1736.60. The immediate outlook remains mixed and it could be ranged between 1730-1800 for some time.
Silver (34.08) dipped towards 33 as expected and it has bounced back from its low of 33.13. A sideways range of 33-36 can be seen for some time.
Copper (3.40) remains weak and is keeping up the chances of testing 3.20 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
Yesterday saw the Euro (1.3620) rise a bit on short-covering from the low of 1.3483. Strong and important Resistance is seen at 1.37 today. Trading in the US hours may be slow as the stock market is closed in the USA today.
The Pound (1.5932) has seen large two-way volatility between 1.5985 on the upside and 1.5868 on the downside shortly afterwards. It might be stable a bit today. The Aussie (1.0150) has also recovered slightly from yesterday's low near 1.0050, but not too much. Still good Support is seen in the 1.00-0.98 region.
Dollar-Yen (77.56) has dipped a bit and is tracing a gradual downmove since the beginning of the month, coming down from a high near 78.99, and could come down further towards 77.25. Strong Support is seen in the 77.25-00 region. Dollar-Swiss (0.9060) has also come off yesterday from the high of 0.9152, but should find good Support near 0.9020 today.
In Asia, the Singapore Dollar (1.2894) continues to trade weak with a potential for further losses next week if the USD-SGD remains above 1.2800 today. The Korean Won (1127.18) also trades weak. There is a Double Bottom on the USD-KRW chart which suggests weakness ahead for the Won. Dollar-Rupee might open a little flattish today after having closed near 50.1750 on Wednesday.
INTEREST RATES
US unemployment claims fall significantly to seven months low, however not enough to dent unemployment below 9%. This brought in some relief to the market reducing the demand for safer assets.US treasuries prices came off lifting the yields across all maturities to cover the Wednesday fall, 2Y closed higher at 0.24% (+1bps), 5Y at 0.91% (+3bps), 10Y at 2.06% (+6bps) and 30Y 3.13% (+9bps).
German bund followed its US counterpart with the yields increasing between 3-5 bps with far end increasing more, 2Y yields inched up to 0.38% (+3bps) and 30Y to 2.51% (+5bps).
In India, 10Y GOI yields increased marginally to 8.93% (+1bps). The 10Y GOI and AAA rated corporate bond yield spread stood at 88 bps.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Rustige nacht in Azië, de Nikkei 225 vlak op +0.16%. Ook de AEX futures laten een vlakke opening zien. Eu/usd zijwaartse trend.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 11 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Alanheri, trading update KW3
- Dockwise, cijfers KW3
- Groothandelsgebouw, cijfers KW3
- Stern, cijfers KW3
- Telegraaf Media Group, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur
DINSDAG 15 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Accell, trading update KW3
- Hal holding, trading update KW3
- New Sources Energy, aandeelhoudersvergadering
- Punch graphix, trading update KW3
- Atrium, resultaten KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, voorlopige cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, bbp, KW3, 11.00 uur
- Dui, ZEW-index, november, 11.00 uur
- VS, consumentenprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 16 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- AEG Power Solutions, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, inflatie, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VK, inflatierapport BoE, 11.30 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 11 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, oktober, 15.15 uur
- VS, NAHB huizenmarktindex, november, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 11 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De Chinese president Hu Jintao wil meer import toelaten op het Chinese continent.
Dat zei hij zondag op de Apec conferentie in Honolulu (Hawaï). Volgens Hu zorgt groei van de import voor meer balans in de Chinese economie en versterking van de wereldeconomie.
Twee Chinese topeconomen, Zhu Min van het IMF en Fan Gang van National Economic Research sluiten zich aan bij de sussende woorden van Hu. Ze verwachten een zachte landing voor de Chinese economie. De inflatie neemt af en er is minder dubieus schuldpapier. Verder lijkt gekte op de vastgoedmarkt wat te luwen. Volgens Zhu ontwikkelt China zich steeds meer in de richting van een diensteneconomie.
De uitlatingen van Zhu en Fan staan in schril contrast met de verwachtingen van marktanalisten. Zij waarschuwen voor een enorme luchtbel in de vastgoedmarkt.
Zhu, Fan en Hu spraken dit weekend op de Apec – de economische organisatie van Aziatische landen en landen die aan de grote oceaan grenzen.

Beleggers in Italiaanse staatsobligaties hebben hun stukken woensdag massaal van de hand gedaan. De verkoopgolf kwam op gang toen clearinghuis LCH Clearnet bekendmaakte dat beleggers vanaf donderdag meer onderpand moeten storten als zij in Italiaans schuldpapier willen handelen. Marktpartijen zien hun transactiekosten daardoor oplopen.
LCH Clearnet fungeert in de obligatiehandel als centrale tegenpartij en neemt dus het tegenpartijrisico over van de koper en verkoper. De organisatie vraagt de handelende partijen daarbij om onderpand. Dat onderpand kan LCH Clearnet gebruiken om verliezen op te vangen als een partij zijn verplichtingen niet nakomt. Clearnet baseert het onderpand, ofwel de margeverplichtingen, op het renteverschil met AAA-staatsobligaties.
Beleggers in Italiaans tienjaarspapier moeten vanaf nu 11,65% van de waarde van een transactie als onderpand storten, een verhoging van 5 %-punt. ‘Dat maakt beleggen in Italiaanse obligaties minder rendabel omdat de transactiekosten stijgen’, legt rentestrateeg Richard McGuire van Rabobank uit. ‘Daardoor stijgt normaal gesproken de rente.’
Negatieve spiraal
De rente op tienjaarspapier steeg woensdag tot boven de psychologisch belangrijke grens van 7%. Volgens McGuire vreest de markt dat die stijgende rente tot een volgende verhoging van de margeverplichtingen leidt. ‘Dan ontstaat een negatieve spiraal, waardoor het steeds moeilijker wordt voor Italië om zijn schuld te herfinancieren.’
Hij wijst erop dat de financieringsproblemen van Italië de afgelopen weken al snel verslechterden door de oplopende rente. De margeverhoging van Clearnet is volgens hem een aanleiding, maar zeker niet de enige oorzaak van de verkoopgolf van Italiaans papier. Ook veel andere marktkenners zien de ingreep van Clearnet vooral als een symptoom van de problemen waarin Italië zich bevindt.
Die angst voor een rentespiraal komt niet uit de lucht gevallen. Toen LCH Clearnet meer onderpand eiste bij handel in Iers en Portugees staatspapier, ontstond precies zo’n negatieve spiraal. Het resultaat was dat beide landen al kort na de eerste margeverhoging bij de andere eurolanden moesten aankloppen voor noodsteun.
Liquiditeit neemt verder af
‘De angst onder beleggers wordt dus niet zozeer ingegeven door de margeverhoging op zich, maar vooral door de negatieve geschiedenis van zulke ingrepen’, zegt McGuire. Hij wijst erop dat bij Ierland en Portugal nog de mogelijkheid bestond om de landen te redden. Maar Italië is daarvoor te groot. ‘Daarom hebben we het nu over een systeemcrisis.’
Banken gebruiken staatsobligaties als onderpand om cash aan te trekken. Clearinghuizen zoals LCH Clearnet treden daarbij als tegenpartij op. Maar door de margeverhoging wordt deze manier om cash aan te trekken duurder. ‘De verwachting in de markt is dat banken nu veel meer Italiaanse obligaties bij de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) in onderpand zullen geven’, aldus een handelaar die niet met zijn naam in Het Financieele Dagblad wil. Daar kunnen ze momenteel tegen gunstigere tarieven terecht. ‘Dat betekent dat de liquiditeit in de markt verder afneemt.’

De Amerikaanse aandelenbeurzen zijn goedgemutst het weekend ingestapt. De Dow Jones, de S&P 500 en de Nasdaq sloten alle drie met een winst van rond de 2%.
Op de handelsvloeren heerste optimisme, nu de eurocrisis weer beheersbaar lijkt te worden. Vrijdag voor opening van de Amerikaanse beurzen werden twee belangrijke onzekerheden in het feuilleton van de eurocrisis uit de weg geruimd.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag sterk hoger gesloten, vanwege signalen uit Italie en Griekenland over politieke vooruitgang en een sterker dan verwacht gestegen consumentenvertrouwen in de VS.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 3,1% hoger op 2.324,81. De DAX-30 steeg 3,2% tot 6.057,03, de CAC-40 sloot 2,8% hoger op 3.149,38 en de FTSE-100 won 1,9% op 5.545,38.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdagavond lager gesloten, waarbij signalen uit Italie en Griekenland over politieke vooruitgang hebben geleid tot een grotere risicobereidheid onder beleggers en een daling van de rendementen op obligaties uit onder andere Italie.
De volumes waren vrijdag laag en bewegingen in de markt werden uitvergroot doordat de obligatiemarkten in de VS gesloten waren in verband met Veteranendag.

De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met winst gesloten nu de rust in de eurozone, vanwege de ontwikkelingen in Griekenland en Italie, lijkt teruggekeerd.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 2,3% hoger op 300,98 punten. De Midkap steeg 2,8% tot 464,20 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,9% hoger op 402,04 punten.

Forex:
FX Thoughts for the Day on 11-11-2011
USD-CHF @ 0.9053/58...Buy dips
R: 0.9085 / 0.9130-50 / 0.9230-50
S: 0.9045 / 0.9000-8985 / 0.8945
Dollar-Swiss is trapped in a narrow range between 0.9045-85 today. With no significant move seen on either side during the day, our view remains the same. A dip to 0.9000-8985 looks likely. A further break below 0.8985 can take it down further to 0.8945-00. This 0.8945-00 is a strong Support region seen on the downside which is expected to hold. A fresh rally can be seen from this Support region. But there are chances that the immediate Support in 0.9000-8985 region itself holding well. We will have to wait and see what happens.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 0.9000, SL 0.8935, TP 0.9130
Cable GBP-USD @ 1.5924/27...Outlook not clear. Stay away.
R: 1.5950 / 1.6000-25 / 1.6130-50
S: 1.5900-5870 / 1.5840 / 1.5800
The 21-DMA (currently at 1.5947) is resisting Cable from further rise and is keeping the pair ranged between 1.5900-50 all through the day. The outlook is mixed as things are not clear whether the pair could be ranged between 1.5900-850 on the downside and 1.6100-50 on the upside or there is a threat of a Double-Top on the daily chart which could drag the pair sharply lower. We will continue to stay out of the market and see how it closes for the week today.
Aussie AUD-USD @ 1.0151/54...Bearish while below 1.0200-50 Resistance region
R: 1.0200 / 1.0230-50 / 1.0350
S: 1.0100 / 1.0050 / 1.0000
Aussie is ranged between 1.0100-0200. As mentioned in our Morning comments, 1.0200-50 will be an important Resistance region to be watched on the upside and while below this Resistance region, a test of 1.0000 on the downside looks likely. Having said this, will be looking to sell rallies to 1.0250.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 1.0230, SL 1.0320, TP 1.0030

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
Despite dipping to as low as 1.3483, subsequent strong rebound on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD argues that fall from 1.4246 might be a correction only. Such correction has possibly finished with three waves down to 1.3483 already. Near term focus will be back on 1.3858 resistance. Break will affirm the bullish case and should bring a retest on 1.4246 resistance first. Nevertheless, below 1.3483 will indicate that fall from 1.4246 has resumed and should target a test on 1.3145 support instead.
In the bigger picture, firstly, consolidation from 1.6039 is still in progress. Secondly, as long as 1.3145 support holds, rise from 1.1875, which is a leg inside the consolidation pattern, is still in progress. Break of 1.4939 will resume such rally. But even in that case, we'd watch for reversal signal as EUR/USD enters into 1.5143/6039 resistance zone, and anticipate a reversal there to bring another medium term decline to continue the consolidation from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.3145 will in turn shift favor back to the case that another falling leg is already started at 1.4939 and would target 1.1875 support next.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's fall from 79.52 accelerated to as low as 77.04 and the decline is admittedly deeper than expected. The development dampened the view that fall from 79.52 is merely correction but then, it's not clearly impulsive so far and outlook is a bit mixed. But in any case, bias will remain on the downside as long as 77.87 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 79.52 at 77.07 should pave the way for a retest on 75.56 low. Nevertheless, break of 77.87 will indicate that the choppy fall from 79.52 is finished and should turn bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 75.56 was strong, USD/JPY is still staying inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is still no clear indication of long term trend reversal even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd still favor further downside in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and USD/JPY could spiral down further to 70 psychological level.
In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6165 extended further with another dip to 1.5868 but quickly recovered. More sideway trading could still be seen in near term. But even in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 1.5631/5851 support zone to conclude the consolidation and resume rise from 1.5271. Decisive break of 1.6165 resistance will confirm such rally resumption and should target 1.6618 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF recovered further to as high as 0.9152 continued to lose upside momentum. Nevertheless, another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.8922 minor support holds. Above 0.9152 will target a test on 0.9315 first. However, break of 0.8922 will signal that recovery from 0.8567 is finished. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside. Further break of 0.8761 support will likely resume the fall from 0.9315.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. While further rise is likely, we'd expect strong resistance at 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and will bring another fall back to 0.7710/8246 to extend the consolidation.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP dropped sharply to as low as 0.8485 before forming a temporary low there and recovered. The break of 0.8529 support indicates that whole decline from 0.9083 has resumed. Hence, consolidation from 0.8485 should be limited by 0.8651 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8485 will target 0.8284 support, which is close to 100% projection of 0.9083 to 0.8529 from 0.8830 at 0.8276. On the upside, however, break of 0.8651 resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008 high) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the third leg and should target 0.8067 first and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8830 resistance, however, will invalidate this view and argue that the choppy rise from 0.8067 is still in progress for another high above 0.9083 before completion.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.0265 but lacked follow through buying and retreated back to establish range. Momentum of the rebound from 0.9891 is not too convincing, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But after all, further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.0055 minor support holds. Above 1.0265 should extend the current rise to 61.8% retracement of 1.0656 to 0.9891 at 1.0364 and above. However, break of 1.0055 will argue that choppy recovery from 0.9891 is already finished and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting this support..
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9406 are viewed as corrective in nature, which would eventually develop into a consolidation pattern. The first leg should have completed at 1.0656. The second leg form 1.0656 might spiral down towards 0.9406 or gyrate sideway between 0.9725 and 1.0656. But after all, firstly, down trend from 1.3063 is expected to resume eventually for another low below 0.9406. Secondly, while another strong rally might be seen as the consolidation extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803 to finish the consolidation.
In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. The strong resistance ahead of the falling 55 months EMA suggests that decline from 1.3063 might still be in progress and a break of 0.9406 will possibly extend the down trend through 0.9056 low.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The development in Greece and Italy new government formation has eased the downside pressure in the markets for a while and the equity markets are in the green all over. But whether the markets can sustain on the upside? We expect the current rise in the market to be short lived. We will have to wait and see.
The US markets have closed higher on Friday. The Dow (12153.68) was up 2.19% and the Nasdaq (2678.75) was up 2.04%. Dow is keeping alive the chaces of testing 12500-600 on the upside. Intermediate Resistance is seen at 12300.
The Asian markets are trading in the green. Australia (4393.70) is up 0.81%, Shanghai (2515.90) is up 1.40%, Hong Kong (19617.61) is up 2.51%, Taiwan (7527.92) is up 2.17% and Nikkei (8617.27) is up 1.21%. The Sensex (17192.82, down 169.28 points) and Nifty (5168.85, down 52.20 points) had closed lower on Friday and looks bearish.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (99.03) has risen further and is heading towards 100 as expected. We need to see whether it can rise past 100 strongly or not.
Gold (1794.30) has risen back and is trading just below 1800. A strong break above 1800 would open doors for further rise to test the previous high of 1920. Support is seen at 1930.
Silver (34.75) remains ranged between 33-36 and we will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range to get clear idea on the further direction of move.
Copper (3.55) has risen well over the last two trading days and can test 3.6-3.7 on the upside before further fall.
CURRENCIES
Italy's senate approving the budget bill and the new government formed in Greece has eased the downside pressure in the market a bit. The Euro (1.3770)is trading higher, but has important Resistance in 1.3850-70 region and 1.3925 which could restrict current upmove. A fresh pull back is possible from these Resistance levels. Dollar-Yen (77.15) is traing just above its important Support in 77.00-76.80 region and while this Support region holds, a bounce to 78.00 can be seen. The Euro-Yen Cross (106.24) immediate Resistance at 106.56 (21-DMA) and the bigger picture remains bearish with strong Resistance in 107.50-108.00 region.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9009) has strong Support in the broad 0.8950-00 region and can rise to 0.9200-50 once again. Cable (1.6070) is ranged between 1.5870 on the downside and 1.6150 on the upside. Aussie (1.0303) jas strong Resistance in 1.0400-30 region which can be tested once again this week while above 1.0200.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1127 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2816. DOllar-Rupee had closed at 50.12/13 on Friday and can rise further to 50.50-65 in the coming days/weeks with strong Support in 49.70-50 region.
INTEREST RATES
In US, yields have spiked up, 2Y treasury yields weekly close was 0.24% (+1bps), 5Y was 0.91% (+3bps), 10Y was 2.06% (+2bps) and 30Y was 3.31% (+4bps). However the increase was not enough to cover the fall during first month first week. We expect the yields to move up further during the week with the equity market.
In EU, some hope of stability can be seen; Italy is in a stage to form new Government. The country bond yields has came off sharply to 6.45% (-80bps) from a high of 7.25%. German bunds had a mixed performance last week with near end (2Y) and far end (30Y) dropped by 5 bps to 0.46% and 2.29% respectively. However, 5Y and 10Y yields increased to 0.96% (+10bps) and 1.89% (+7bps) respectively.
In Asia, Japanese GDP has increased to 6% (annualized), one and half year high, for the quarter ending Sep�11; it was backed by rise in exports and domestic consumption demand. In India, industrial production fell to 1.9%, a two year low. The impact of rate hike for last 13 times by RBI took impact on domestic demand translating to shrink in capital goods and consumer goods production.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Stemming Japan is goed, de Nikkei 225 op +1.15%. Eu/usd op +0.11% 1.37640.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 14 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Punch Graphix, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, industriele productie, september, 11.00 uur
DINSDAG 15 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Accell, trading update KW3
- Hal holding, trading update KW3
- New Sources Energy, aandeelhoudersvergadering
- Punch graphix, trading update KW3
- Atrium, resultaten KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, voorlopige cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, bbp, KW3, 11.00 uur
- Dui, ZEW-index, november, 11.00 uur
- VS, consumentenprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 16 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- AEG Power Solutions, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, inflatie, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VK, inflatierapport BoE, 11.30 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 11 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, oktober, 15.15 uur
- VS, NAHB huizenmarktindex, november, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 11 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De kans dat de Amerikaanse economie door de voortrazende schuldencrisis in Europa in een recessie zakt, is groter dan 50%. Dat zegt de Centrale Bank van San Francisco.
Dat meldt persbureau Reuters op basis van onderzoek door de financiële instelling. Volgens de bank, die onderdeel is van het stelsel van centrale banken FED, duiden economische indicatoren op een hogere kans op een recessie voor de periode van eind dit jaar tot begin 2012. Na de tweede helft van volgend jaar neemt het risico op een recessie weer af.
Hoewel beleggers enigszins werden gerustgesteld door het installeren van nieuwe regeringen in Italië en Griekenland, is de schuldencrisis in Europa daarmee nog niet opgelost. Bondskanselier Angela Merkel zei gisteren dat de regio zijn donkerste uren sinds de Tweede Wereldoorlog doormaakt. Die dreiging strekt zich ook uit naar de andere kant van de oceaan. Binnenlandse factoren zijn veel minder een bedreiging voor het economisch herstel van de Amerikaanse economie.
Volgens de Centrale Bank van San Francisco is de zwakke Amerikaanse economie meer dan normaal gesproken gevoelig voor invloeden van buitenaf, zoals de tsunami in Japan afgelopen maart ook liet zien.
Hiermee is San Francisco, dat overigens een van de kleinste banken van het Amerikaanse stelsel van Centrale Banken heeft, negatiever gestemd dan veel andere analisten. Begin november bleek uit een peiling van persbureau Reuters dat een derde van de economen op Wall Street de Amerikaanse economie in een recessie zag afglijden. Een maand eerder was dat nog 35,5%.

De bezuinigingsmaatregelen die Griekenland heeft moeten doorvoeren in ruil voor internationale steun hebben de economische situatie van het land verergerd. Dat heeft de nieuwe Griekse premier Lucas Papademos gisteren gezegd.
'Het is een feit dat het huidige beleid de recessie en de werkloosheid hebben verergerd’, zei Papademos maandag tegen het Griekse parlement. Papademos, voormalig president van de Griekse centrale bank en vicepresident van de Europese Centrale Bank, voert sinds 11 november 2011 een interimregering aan. 'Onze taak is disproportioneel groot in verhouding tot de tijd die we hebben om hem uit te voeren', zei hij.
andere keus heeft dan om in de eurozone te blijven. 'Ons lidmaatschap van de euro is een garantie voor monetaire stabiliteit en schept de juiste voorwaarden voor duurzame economische groei.' Ook stelde Papademos dat het land de belastingbasis moet verbreden en grootschalige belastingontduiking moet aanpakken. Volgens economen betekenen tegenvallende belastinginkomsten een ernstige belasting voor de Griekse begroting.
Het parlement spreekt zich woensdag in een vertrouwensstemming uit over de aanstelling van de nieuwe regering. De conservatieve oppositieleider Antonis Samaras zei maandag dat zijn partij Nieuwe Democratie tegen nieuwe bezuinigingsvoorstellen zal stemmen.
De nieuwe regering onder leiding van Papademos moet een uitgebreid pakket bezuinigingsmaatregelen uitvoeren om in aanmerking te komen voor een Europees hulppakket ter waarde van € 130 mrd. Ook moet het eerder afgesproken maatregelen doorvoeren om in aanmerking te komen voor de zesde tranche van een eerder hulppakket ter waarde van € 110 mrd. De € 8 mrd moet voor half december worden betaald om te voorkomen dat Griekenland in acute financiële problemen komt. Gisteren zei de Duitse minister van financiën Wolfgang Schaüble dat de Duitse regering onder leiding van bondskanselier Angela Merkel wil dat Griekenland in de eurozone blijft.

Italië verkocht gisteren voor € 3 mrd aan vijfjarige staatsobligaties. Daarmee haalde de Staat het maximaal geplande bedrag op. Italië betaalde echter wel een hogere rente dan bij een vorige veiling van vijfjaarspapier in oktober. Toen nam de markt genoegen met 5,32%. Nu verkocht Italië het schuldpapier tegen een gemiddelde rente van 6,29%. Direct na de veiling begonnen de Italiaanse rentes verder op te lopen. Rond 13.45 was de tienjaarsrente met 20 basispunten gestegen naar 6,623%. In het kielzog van Italië, lopen ook de Spaanse rentes op. De Spaanse tienjaarsrente nadert de 6%. Ook België komt steeds meer onder het vergrootglas van de markten te liggen. De tienjaarsrente steeg naar een record van 4,59% nadat bekend werd dat België zijn begrotingsdoelen niet gaat halen.

De angst voor een recessie in Europa, bovenop de voortslepende schuldencrisis op het continent, zette Wall Street maandag in de min. De recessievrees werd gevoed door een daling van de industriële productie in de eurozone in september.
e Dow-Jonesindex sloot 0,6 procent lager op 12.078,98 punten. De S&P 500-index moest 1 procent terug tot 1251,78 punten en de Nasdaq verloor 0,8 procent tot 2657,22 punten.
De industriële productie daalde in september met 2 procent ten opzichte van augustus. Het was de sterkste afname sinds begin 2009. ,,We zijn geen eiland. We zijn afhankelijk van wat er om ons heen gebeurt en het is niet waarschijnlijk dat Europa een recessie kan vermijden'', aldus een handelaar in New York.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren lager gesloten, nadat het sentiment verslechterde door opmerkingen van Angela Merkel en weinig opbeurende macrodata.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 1,6% lager op 2.288,32. De DAX-30 daalde 1,2% tot 5.985,02, de CAC-40 sloot 1,3% lager op 3.108,95 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,5% op 5.519,04.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn maandag hoger gesloten, nadat het sentiment omsloeg en beleggers weer richting veilige leningen vluchten vanwege de problemen in de eurozone.

De Amsterdamse beurs is maandag met verlies gesloten in reactie op matige macrodata uit het eurogebied. Tegelijkertijd wordt de druk op Spanje door de financiele markten weer opgevoerd.
De AEX-index sloot maandag 1,4% lager op 296,90 punten. De Midkap zakte op het slot 1,5% naar 457,49 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,4% lager op 400,48 punten.

De olieprijs is gisteren lager gesloten, vanwege de Europese schuldencrisis en zorgen over de olievoorraden.

Forex:
Currency Trades for the Risk Averse
Europe's political drama and downbeat economic indicators are making it a great time to be risk averse. Here's one way to trade with caution.
Sure, there are plenty of times to take aggressive positions, but the strategists at Barclays Capital say that with the European crisis pushing global financial markets to "a pivotal point," this definitely isn't one of them.
The crisis could be resolved through more decisive action by the authorities and the European Central Bank, the strategists wrote in a note to clients, but "it is easier said than done as the ECB will face political constraints in the near term." So they are sticking to trading recommendations that are based on relative value.
For example:
--Sell the Swedish krona against the British pound at 0.0942, with a stop loss of 0.0945 and a target of 0.0920. The euro-krona pair "has lagged the risk selloff last week, despite its high beta-to-risk properties," Barclays says, and the British pound has moved higher against the euro. They expect the krona to weaken against the pound directly.
--Buy the dollar against the Swiss franc right around 0.901 with a target of 0.930 and a stop at 0.892. "Worsening euro area condition may prompt the Swiss National Bank to defend the floor against the euro, supporting USD/CHF," Barclays says. "Alternatively, should events in the euro area surprise on the positive side, the value of the CHF as a safe haven should fall."
--If you are willing to trade less liquid currencies, Barclays also suggests buying the Turkish lira against the Hungarian forint. at 127.5, with stop loss at 125.0 and a target of 135.0. "The Turkish central bank has an inflation problem and the economy is growing at respectable pace (4%+) and thus has both the means and motivation to lean against currency weakness," say the Barclays strategists. In Hungary, meanwhile, there are "greater de-leveraging risks from European banks."

USD/CAD Trading in a 1H Channel within a 4H Channel
The 1H USD/CAD chart shows a market trading within a projected declining channel. The 11/14 US session has so far respected the 1.0200 level, which is the projected channel resistance. We also have the 78.6% retracement of the 1.0232-1.0087 swing at 1.0201. The RSI is respecting the 60 level, reflecting a maintenance of the bearish momentum established during this declining channel. If the makret falls below the 200 1H simple moving average, and clears the pivot near 1.0160, we are looking at the 1.0140-1.0145 pivot as support. Support there, would suggest bullish intent, and suggest a subsequent rally to break the channel to the upside. Otherwise, we are likely to continue lower to test the support in the projected channel seen in the 4H chart. If that channel support breaks, the next level of support is 1.0055, before the psychological pivot at 1.0, parity.
Howver, if the market manages to push above 1.02, and the channel in the 1H chart, we can be continuing an upward swing within the 4H channel. A swing projection targets the 1.0280 area, which is near the 138.2% extended retracement of the 1.0232-1.0087 swing, at 1.0288. The bullish outlook opens up if we then see the market fail to fall back below the 200SMA in the 4H chart.

USD/CHF Remains Bullish After ABC Correction; Swing Projection Targets 0.9180
The 1H USD/CHF chart shows a market after a completed ABC correction with C=A wave equality. The RSI reading shows a loss of bullish momentum when it dipped below 30, however its ability to push back above 60 now suggests the bearish momentum started by the ABC correction. Overall, we can say the market is now trading sideways, but with a possible bullish bias as it trades above the 200 period simple moving average.
On a pending throwback, the bullish bias becomes apparent if the market is supported above 0.9025. This would support development of bullish structure. Then, if the market clears the pivots right under 0.91, we open up the high near 0.9150. A slightly more aggressive bullish outlook targets 0.9180, the swing projection seen in the 4H chart as per suggestion by a positive reversal signal (lower RSI low, higher price low).
If the 0.9025 level fails to provide support, a slide lower below 0.90 opens up the 0.8950-0.8960 area as an important level of support near the most recent swing low, and also the 200SMA in both the 1H and 4H charts.

Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens after Bond Auction
Euro weakens mildly today even though Italian bond auctions went fairly well. Bank of Italy said EUR 3b of five-year bonds were sold, with average yield at 6.29%, up from 5.32% in October. While the yield was significantly higher and was at an euro era record, demand was solid. Bid-to cover ratio was at 1.47%, up from 1.34 times in prior auctions. The result was somewhat reassuring that markets are responding positively to Berlusconi's resignation and Monti's appointment as the new prime minister. But there are still some uncertainties on how Monti's technical government would force through fiscal reforms.
Over the weekend, Italy Prime Minister Berlusconi finally resigned following parliamentary approval of the austerity package demanded by EU partners. Former European Union competition commissioner Mario Monti was named by President Napolitano as Prime Minister to lead the technical government. Monti is expected to name his cabinet and face a confidence vote this week.
Japanese GDP posted solid 1.5% qoq growth in Q3, inline with expectation, following the natural disaster triggered -0.3% contraction in Q2. Also, that the first expansion in four quarters. The figure translated to an annualized rate of 6.0%. The detail showed that drivers of growth shifted from the public sector to the private sector. However, economists are expecting recovery to lose steam in Q4, and GDP growth so far is projected to be at between 0-0.5%, which is just steady.
Other data released today saw New Zealand retail sales rose strongly by 2.2% qoq in Q3. Japan industrial production dropped -3.3% mom in September. Swiss combined PPI dropped less than expected by -0.2% mom, -1.8% yoy in October. Eurozone industrial production dropped -2.0% mom in September.
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.46; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.47;
EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 4 hours 55 EMA and weakens sharply today. But still it's staying above 104.72 temporary low. Intraday bias remains ne neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 108.25 resistance and bring another fall. Below 104.72 will confirm the case that rebound from 100.74 has completed at 111.57 and extend the decline from there to retest 100.74 low. Nevertheless, break of 108.24 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 111.57 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no signal of reversal yet with EUR/JPY staying below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and should take out 100 psychological level eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. Though, sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 111.86) will raise the odd of trend reversal and will turn focus back to 123.31 resistance for confirmation.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
08:00uur en 11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 14:30 cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The Euro zone debt crisis is keeping the markets pressured on the downside. After two days of good rally the US markets had closed lower yesterday. The Dow (12078.98) was down 0.61% and the Nasdaq (2657.22) was down 0.8%.
The Asian markets are trading lower all over. Nikkei (8567.42) is down 0.42%, Shanghai (2523.29) is down 0.21%, Hong Kong (19340.37) is down 0.83%, Taiwan (7497.51) is down 0.39% and Australia (4350) is down 0.44%. The Sensex (17118.74, down 74.08 points) and Nifty (5148.35, down 20.50 points) remains bearish and had closed lower yesterday as well. We see a big threat of the Sensex and Nifty falling to 15500-15000 and 4600-4500 respectively in the coming weeks/months.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (98.26) has come off from its high of 99.69. As mentioned yesterday, important Resistance is seen at 100 which needs to be watched. Whether 100 breaks or holds will determine the further direction of move. Pull back to 96 or even 90 is possible while Crude fails to break above 100 strongly.
Gold (1779.60) is continuing to find Resistance near 1800. The sideways range of 1730-1800 is expected to continue and we will have to wait for a breakout of this range. An upside break above 1800 can take Gold to the previous high of 1920.
Silver (34.25) continues to trade mixed and remains ranged between 33-36. We will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range to get clear idea on further direction of move.
Copper (3.50) has come off from yesterday's high of 3.58. With strong Resistance in 3.60-70 region, Copper is expected to remain pressured on the downside.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3620) has fallen through yesterday, from the early Asia high of 1.3811. Support may now be seen in the 1.3550-25 region today. Dollar-Yen (77.12) has bounced back a bit after falling to 76.80 yesterday. Expect a range of 76.75-77.50 for today. Dollar-Swiss (0.9090) is moving up well and has potential to target 0.9200 initially. EURCHF looks bullish.
The Pound (1.5893) fell sharply from yesterday's high near 1.6092. The currency has been yo-yoing between 1.5870-6100 for the last several days. If the Support at 1.5870 breaks, it could be vulnerable to a 150-200 pip decline. The Aussie (1.0196) too came off yesterday from a high near 1.0335. Both the Pound and the Aussie have been faring better than the Euro and appear to be ranged in the near term, but could be vulnerable to a fall if the range Support breaks.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2875) is trading just below 1.2900. It has good Support at 1.2825 and can rise towards 1.3000. The Korean Won (1125.90) can also rise further towards 1135 over the coming days.
Dollar-Rupee, which closed near 50.2950 yesterday has potential to climb towards 50.70 this week.
INTEREST RATES
In EU, German bunds prices rallied compressing the yields significantly between 9 to 14 bps across the maturities, 2Y closed lower at 0.31% (-9bps), 5Y fell even more by 14bps to 0.81%, 10Y closed at 1.78 (-11bps) and 30Y at 2.28% (-9bps).
US treasuries following its German counterpart witnessed fall in yields with far end falling more. However 2Y yields remained stable at 0.24%. 5Y yields, now at 0.90 (-5bps) broke below its long term support at 1.0% can fall further to 0.8%. 10Y yields closed at 2.05% (-8bps), with the existing trend it can fall towards 1.7%.
In India, 10Y GOI yields increased to 8.9% (+5bps) and inflation increased to 9.73%, opens expectation for further rate hike by RBI. Note, the other Asians are either reducing or holding rates to save their economic growth from probable Global slowdown. Thirteen consecutive rate hikes turned badly on India with industrial production expanding by only 1.6% on Sep ’11. We expect RBI to pause the rate hike as interest rate to inflation translation mechanism is lagged and imperfect on India.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Stemming Japan, zelfde als de VS gisteren slecht, de Nikkei 225 op -0.83%. Eu/usd in downtrend op -0.17% 1.36100.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 15 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Accell, trading update KW3
- Hal holding, trading update KW3
- New Sources Energy, aandeelhoudersvergadering
- Punch graphix, trading update KW3
- Atrium, resultaten KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, voorlopige cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Eurozone, handelsbalans, september, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, bbp, KW3, 11.00 uur
- Dui, ZEW-index, november, 11.00 uur
- VS, consumentenprijzen, oktober, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 16 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- AEG Power Solutions, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, inflatie, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VK, inflatierapport BoE, 11.30 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 11 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, oktober, 15.15 uur
- VS, NAHB huizenmarktindex, november, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 11 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

Eurolanden moeten enerzijds zelf de mogelijkheid krijgen om uit de eurozone te stappen en anderzijds het recht krijgen om landen die de regels breken uit de eurozone te kunnen zetten, zegt Premier Mark Rutte gisteren tijdens zijn tweedaagse handelsmissie naar het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Rutte zei het eens te zijn met de Christen-Democratische Unie van de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel dat een wijziging van het EU-verdrag nodig is, zodat eurozone landen de eurozone kunnen verlaten zonder ook hun lidmaatschap van de Europese Unie te verliezen. "Een land zou in het geval het niet voldoet aan de regels zijn stemrecht moeten verliezen en uiteindelijk uit de eurozone gezet moeten worden", zei Rutte.
Reeds in september deed de Nederlandse regering dergelijke voorstellen. De voorstellen winnen nu echter aan kracht, vanwege de steun uit Duitsland. De suggestie dat het mogelijk moet zijn voor een eurozone-land de eurozone te verlaten - of daartoe zelfs gedwongen zou kunnen worden - doorbreekt een langlopend taboe tussen de 17 lidstaten van de eurozone.
Volgens de huidige regels kan een euroland slechts uit de eurozone stappen mits het land tevens uit de Europese Unie stapt.
Rutte zei dat een wijziging van het verdrag om een vrijwillig of gedwongen vertrek uit de eurozone mogelijk te kunnen maken versneld binnen een jaar mogelijk zou moeten kunnen zijn.
"Ik denk dat het een beetje ambitieus is om dit binnen een jaar te realiseren, maar het schijnt mogelijk te zijn", zei hij.

Hoopgevende cijfers over de Amerikaanse economie wogen gisteren zwaarder dan de zorg om de etterende schuldencrisis in Europa. De stemming op Wall Street was voorzichtig positief en de drie belangrijkste indices sloten de handelsdag met een kleine winst. DeDow Jones-index sloot 0,14% hoger op 12.069,16 punten. De breder samengestelde S&P500 noteerde bij het slot een winst van 0,48% op 1257,81 punten. Technologiebeurs Nasdaq eindigde 1,09% hoger op 2686,20 punten.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren met verlies gesloten, waarbij de stijgende rendementen op Italiaanse en Spaanse staatsobligaties op het sentiment wogen.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot 1,5% lager op 2.254,00. De DAX-30 daalde 0,9% tot 5.933,14, de CAC-40 sloot 1,9% lager op 3.049,13 en de FTSE-100 sloot vlak op 5.517,44.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn dinsdag hoger gesloten, waarbij de rentes op obligaties van Europese landen met grote staatsschulden zijn gestegen tot het hoogste niveau sinds de invoering van de euro.
Het rendement op de Italiaanse tienjarige lening kwam dinsdag boven de belangrijke grens van 7% uit, terwijl de yield op de Spaanse tienjarige obligatie voor het eerst sinds begin augustus boven de 6% steeg.
"Het toenemen van de yields is geen goed nieuws en geeft blijk van de fragiliteit van de Italiaanse markt die waarschijnlijk nog wel even zal voortduren", schreef Gary Jenkins van Evolution Securities aan zijn klanten.
In Spanje werd voor EUR3,2 miljoen aan 12-maands leningen geveild. Dit weekend vinden er verkiezingen in het land plaats. Er wordt verwacht dat de huidige regerende socialistische partij gaat verliezen.
Economische macro-data vielen dinsdag in Europa tegen. Zo bleek uit de ZEW-index bleek dat het vertrouwen van financieel analisten in de vooruitzichten voor de Duitse economie in november sterker is gedaald dan verwacht.
Tevens werd bekend dat de economie in Duitsland in het derde kwartaal met 0,5% is gegroeid. De groei in het tweede kwartaal werd met 0,2 procentpunt naar boven bijgesteld naar een groei van 0,3%.
De economische groei in Frankrijk kwam in het derde kwartaal uit op 0,4%.
De bundfuture voor december eindigde dinsdag 45 basispunten hoger op 138,71. De Duitse bundfuture is een standaardtermijncontract op een mandje van de tien meest recente tienjarige staatsleningen in Duitsland.

De Amsterdamse beurs is dinsdag met verlies gesloten nadat de lange rente in verschillende grote schuldenlanden van de eurozone weer opliepen met Italie als opvallendste uitschieter naar meer dan 7%. Macrodata uit het eurogebied waren andermaal zwak.
De AEX-index sloot dinsdag 1,3% lager op 292,93 punten. De Midkap zakte op het slot 1,4% naar 451,11 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,9% lager op 392,99 punten.

De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is dinsdag hoger gesloten, waarbij beleggers diverse positieve macro-cijfers uit Europa en de VS afwegen ten opzichte van de voortdurende zorgen over de Europese schuldproblemen.

Officials See Little Cheer for U.S., Europe Economies
WASHINGTON—Top executives and U.S. policy makers struck a pessimistic tone over the prospect of European or U.S. officials tackling persistent economic headwinds, finding few silver linings for the global economy.
Participants in The Wall Street Journal's CEO Council expressed little hope that the "supercommittee" of U.S. lawmakers tasked with reaching a deal to address growing U.S. deficits would be able to reach a meaningful compromise ahead of a Nov. 23 deadline. The outlook for Europe's ability to contain its growing debt crisis was more dire, with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warning of the "consistent failure" for euro-area officials to appear credible.
"This is about incipient panic and whether it is going to be contained," Mr. Summers told a panel at the Washington event.
International Monetary Fund Deputy Director Zhu Min said if Italy, Greece and other European countries quickly fix their public finances without hurting growth excessively, the Continent will be able to overcome the crisis. He warned however, that "nobody will be immune" if it deteriorates further.
"The whole world should work together to help Europe and to push them as well to solve their issues," Mr. Zhu said.
Italy on Monday was forced to offer investors a euro-era record interest rate to place five-year government bonds, highlighting doubts over the new government's ability to rein in Rome's large debt. It was the first sale since former European Commissioner Mario Monti agreed to try to form a new government to implement austerity measures.
"We've seen as much avowal of commitment to fiscal discipline as we're likely to see," Mr. Summers said. "From here it's likely to be erosion and not further building, and the markets are giving a verdict."
Executives and policy makers were also doubtful whether U.S. lawmakers' would reach a deal to slow U.S. spending and cut deficits. The co-chairmen of the deficit commission created by the White House said they thought lawmakers on the Joint Special Committee on Deficit Reduction would likely fail to make the cuts necessary to avert a crisis.
Erskine Bowles, a White House chief of staff during the Clinton administration, said, "I know that the fiscal path they are on here in Washington is not sustainable and worse yet, I know every member of that fiscal commission knows it, too," adding that "we'll have a crisis before these guys will act."
President Barack Obama's budget director, Jack Lew, said the key is for U.S. lawmakers to show they can overcome the partisan gridlock that paralyzed policy makers over the summer during a debate over the size of spending cuts that would be tied to an increase in the debt limit. A deal between Democrats and Republicans cutting the deficit by even $1 trillion would demonstrate Washington's commitment to the issue, he said.
"The rating agencies, as the American people did, saw a Washington that was dysfunctional, that's a very bad thing and I think breaking through that will be as important as the economic accomplishments," Lew said.

Forex:
15-11-2011; 15:53
EUR/JPY Remains Bearish; Swing Projection Targets 100.30
The EUR/JPY in the daily chart shows a bearish continuation on tap as the market failed to rally above the 200 day simple moving average, and below the pivot area near 112.00. The RSI also shows maintenance of bearish momentum as it failed to sustain a break above the 60 level. Note also that the Monday decline engulfed last Friday and Thursday consolidation candles. Today’s price action is extending lower, below a pivot that was right below 105.00. Now the market looks to slide lower toward 100.68 low. Also, a negative reversal signal (higher RSI high, lower price high), suggests a swing projection toward 100.30. Below that, the 100 psychological pivot might provide some significant support.
Further confirmation of the bearish outlook can be found if a pullback fails to break back above the 105.00 pivot.

GBP/JPY Back to Levels Before the JPY-Intervention Pop
Risk-off continues to benefit the USD and JPY. For the GBP/JPY, the market is now trading near levels before the intervention pop, which is seen as the low of the bullish candle that spanned from 121.787 to 127.29. We are also back to the 200 period simple moving average in the 4H chart. The RSI has tagged 30, reflecting bearish momentum. Note that price is trading in a declining channel, and is at channel support. This combination of factors suggest the market should find some very short-term support, but in a market that has turned bearish.
Bullish Scenario: In the short-term, a bullish scenario opens up with a break back above the 123.00-123.10 pivot area. The target in is contained to the projected channel resistance. Only above the channel is the market re-igniting the bullish scenario, at which point we should also look for the RSI to be above 60 to confirm loss of bearish momentum.
Bearish Scenario: However, if the market is held say below 124.00 in a bullish attempt, a subsequent successful break below 121.87 opens up a pivot low near 119.97, but and the 138.2% extended retracement at 119.82. (119.82-119.97 is the target zone).
Looking at the daily chart, it should be noted that we are cracking 50% retracement, and the 61.8% retracement is at 120.86, which is another level to watch out for support. The daily RSI has tagged 70, and is still above 40, so we still have bullish momentum in the longer, medium term. Thus the medium to long term outlook is unclear, and we just have to see how which short to medium term scenario plays out. If the market does push even below 119.97, we are likely going back down to retest the 116.83 low. This 120 handle is indeed an important support for the bullish scenario going forward in the long run even if the short to medium term action remains bearish.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
11:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone, 13:00uur, 14:30 en 16:30uur cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
Better economic data (Retail Sales, CPI and Manufacturing index) release from the US yesterday helped its equtiy markets to close in green yesterday. The Dow (12096.16) was up 0.14% and the Nasdaq (2686.20) was up 1.09%.
However, the Asian markets are trading lower today all over. Nikkei (8529.98) is down 0.14%, Shanghai (2504.13) is down 1.01%, Hong Kong (19022.12) is down 1.69%, Taiwan (7442.50) is down 0.65% and Australia (4332.40) is down 0.44%. The Sensex (16882.67, down 236.07 points) and Nifty (5068.50, down 79.85 points) tanked yesterday and remains bearish for a test of 15500-15000 and 4600-4500 respectively in the coming weeks/months.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (98.65) has continued to find Resistance just below 100 for the second consecutive day. A sideways consolidation is possible between 97-100. A strong pull back from current levels will increase the chances of seeing 90 on the downside. We will have to wait and see.
Gold (1771.80) and Silver (34.20) continues to trade mixed and are expected to remain ranged between 1730-1800 and 33-36 respectively.
Copper (3.48) is not gaining strength to extend its upmove further and remains flat over the last couple of days. The overall picture remains weak with strong Resistance in 3.60-70 region and a fall to 3.20-00 is possible once again.
CURRENCIES
Dollar is trading strong. Dollar Index (77.95) has risen sharply but it has important Resistance ahead in 78.15-25 region. The Euro (1.3453) has dropped below 1.3500 and not it could target 1.3330-00 on the downside. Dollar-Yen (77.08) is trading flat between 76.90-77.20. The Euro-Yen Cross (103.71) is trading below 104 and has some Support at 103.50. While this Support holds, a bounce back to 104.50-105.00 is possible.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9202) remains strong and could target 0.9300-400 on the upside on a strong break above the immediate Resistance at 0.9240. Cable (1.5769) has broken its 1.5870-6150 sideways range on the downside and now could dip to 1.5700 today. Aussie (1.0092) remains weak and can fall further to 1.0000.0.9950.
The Asian currencies are trading weak. The Korean-Won is trading near 1133.40 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2953. Dollar-RUpee had closed higher and strong above 50 at 50.67/68 and can rise further to 51.00-10 given the overall strength in the Dollar.
INTEREST RATES
In EU, German bunds yields remained almost stable as compare to past sessions during the week so far, 2Y and 30Y yields remain firmed at 0.32% and 2.48% respectively, 5Y and 10Y yields increased marginally by 1bps to 0.82% and 1.79% respectively. Yields across all tenors are at crucial support on the weekly chart (see: www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eursin00.shtml#sin00) apart from 10Y maturity. We expect 10Y yields can come off further.
In US, 2Y treasury yields remained stable at 0.24%, 5Y came off marginally to 0.89% (-1bps), 10Y closed at 2.02%(-3bps) and 30Y at 3.06% (-4bps).
Indian bond prices rallied compressing 10Y GOI yields by 5bps to 8.93%.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan verder in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0.92%. AEX futures iets hoger. Eu/usd in downtrend zakt verder weg richting 1.34.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
WOENSDAG 16 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- AEG Power Solutions, cijfers KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, inflatie, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VK, inflatierapport BoE, 11.30 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 11 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, inflatie, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, industriele productie, oktober, 15.15 uur
- VS, NAHB huizenmarktindex, november, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 11 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
–Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De beurzen op Wall Street zijn gisteren in de min gesloten. Wonnen positieve Amerikaanse macrocijfers het dinsdag nog van de zorgen omtrent de schuldencrisis in Europa, woensdag was het precies andersom.
De Dow Jones-index sloot 1,6% lager op 11.906 punten. De breder samengestelde S&P 500 verloor 1,7%, wat een slotstand van 1237 punten opleverde. En technologiebeurs Nasdaq sloot op 2639 punten, een verlies van 1,7%.

De Bank of England (BoE), de centrale bank in het Verenigd Koninkrijk (VK), heeft gisteren aangegeven dat de economische groei zwakker zal zijn dan eerder verwacht, vanwege de invloed die de schuldencrisis in de eurozone heeft op de export van het VK, waardoor het land mogelijk verdere stimulerende maatregelen moet nemen.
Het Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) van de BoE stelt dat inflatie in 2012 op jaarbasis waarschijnlijk sterk af zal nemen, en binnen twee jaar onder de 1,5% kan uitkomen - waarmee het lager uitkomt dan de beoogde 2%.
De verwachtingen zijn erop gebaseerd dat het MPC het belangrijkste rentetarief tot het derde kwartaal in 2013 handhaaft en het obligatie-inkoopprogramma tot het eind van 2014 ongemoeid laat, waarmee de indruk gewekt wordt dat verdere obligatie-inkopen en renteverlagingen nodig zijn voor het op koers houden van de inflatie.
In oktober kocht de bank GBP75 miljard aan staatsobligaties uit het VK en andere activa op om daarmee de vraag te stimuleren, waardoor het programma nu op GBP275 miljard staat. Het belangrijkste rentetarief staat ongewijzigd op 0,5% sinds maart 2009.
Het MPC geeft aan nu te geloven dat de economische groei "significant zwakker" zal zijn dan in augustus werd voorzien, met als grootste risico de schuldencrsis in de eurozone - de grootste exportmarkt van het VK.
Volgens het MPC moet de eurozone de schuldencrisis op een geloofwaardige manier oplossen, omdat er anders "aanzienlijke negatieve gevolgen voor de wereldeconomie en de economie in het VK zullen zijn."
Deze slechtste uitkomst is niet meegerekend in de verwachtingen voor de economische groei.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren na een volatiele handelsdag verdeeld gesloten, waarbij de BoE de economische verwachtingen voor het Verenigd Koninkrijk neerwaarts bijstelde.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 0,6% hoger op 2.267,96. De DAX-30 daalde 0,3% tot 5.913,36, de CAC-40 sloot 0,5% hoger op 3.064,90 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,2% op 5.509,02.
Het was gisteren opnieuw een bewogen dag op de Europese obligatiemarkten. De Duitse bunds, door beleggers beschouwd als de enige echte veilige haven, sloten met verlies nadat de rentes in de periferie terugvielen van eerdere recordniveaus.

Citi's Willem Buiter Says Europe Could Just Have Days Before A Financial Catastrophe
"Time is running out fast. I think we have maybe a few months -- it could be weeks, it could be days -- before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now."
"The only two guns in town, one is only theoretical, and that is increasing the size of the EFSF to 3 trillion. It should happen but it can't for political reasons. The other one, the only remaining share is the ECB. They may have to hold their noses while they do it, and if they don't do it, it's the end of the euro zone."
On why the ECB hasn't acted yet:
"Because after the error of the Bundesbank, they consider central banks purchasing sovereign debt outright to be like swearing in church. It's just not done. This has been in fact to a certain extent embedded in the treaty which forbids the ECB from lending directly to governments or buying stuff in the primary market. But there is no restriction at all on them buying any amount of sovereign debt at any time in the secondary market, so they can do it."
"This crisis is the result of the failure to provide the minimal institutional underpinning for a monetary union in the euro area and also a result of the ECB unfortunately being the heir of the Bundesbank and therefore not understanding and rejecting the role of central bank as lenders' last resort to sovereigns. They certainly are a central bank. They just are a central bank that prefers to fight with both hands behind their back. If they just let go of one hand, that would be enough."
On Italy’s situation:
"This is already challenging. If this was the rate at which they are going to fund themselves, even over the medium term, that becomes an explosive debt deficit spiral…This is clearly unsustainable. You can live here for awhile, they're not going to keel over tomorrow, but this is not sustainable…The only way they can get back there is for the ECB to provide the liquidity while Italy does the hard work for years, in fact for the rest of the decade quite possibly, of restructuring their economy and tightening the budget in a major way."
On whether he's concerned about France:
I think France definitely has its work cut out for itself. It has a government budgeting problem which is structural to a large extent. And then they have a large banking sector. Do not forget that the U.S. banking sector balance sheet is less than 100% of GDP. In Europe and France, it is 300%. Their banks are under fire and so their sovereigns are under fire. I do not think the sovereign will keel over, but they have their work cut out for them.
On what he'd like to see in Europe to get the fiscal house in order:
Clearly some minimal federal fiscal structure would be desirable, but it is completely unrealistic. They best they can hope for is that the ECB will indeed ring fence the euro area sovereigns in exchange for basically glorified IMF programs. So that they will temporarily transfer a significant amount of fiscal sovereignty to some super-national body, but then when they get restored to health, they regain this. That is not a long-term solution. Ultimately there will have to be some form of fiscal union that creates a federal solution, but that's for the next crisis, not this one.
On whether Europe is an AIG waiting to happen:
No for several reasons. First of all, AIG happened and everybody learned from it. Whereas the sovereign CDS, the regulators by and large know who wrote it, who issued it and who holds it. Unlike quite a bit of the CDS written by AIG. This stuff is all collateralized. So nothing is ever completely safe, even sovereign debt, but I think it's a lot safer to trigger them and use their insurance value than to kill the market."
On the quality of the German economy right now:
"It is a mixed bag. It has a very productive manufacturing exporting sector. Much of the rest of it is not very efficient at all, including the services sectors. Germany had the world's largest corporate takeover in 1999 when West Germany took on East Germany. That has not been fully digested yet. It is a country that is very much a dual economy. It is very strong at the moment strong at the moment as an export-oriented economy, which of course is vulnerable to cyclical slowdowns...it is structural and cyclical. The German demographics are terrible, even by European standards."
On whether the U.S. should use its currency to help with exports:
"No, I think to pursue competitiveness policies by manipulating or steering down the nominal values of the exchange rate is a loser's game. In the limit, it gets you to Zimbabwe, which didn't exactly become a hub of competitiveness. It's a gross misalignment for historical reasons…I think we shouldn't get too upset about the Chinese manipulating their currency. There's also no reason to attach great importance to the ability of the U.S. in manipulating its currency. Both are second order instruments."

De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met een kleine winst gesloten, mede dankzij de steun die uitging van Wall Street.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 0,5% hoger op 294,47 punten. De Midkap zakte op het slot 0,1% op 450,60 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,5% lager op 390,87 punten.

De olieprijs is woensdag gestegen tot boven de $100 per vat. Het nieuws dat een belangrijke oliepijplijn in de VS wordt omgekeerd stuurde de markt flink omhoog.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange 3,2% hoger op $102,59, het hoogste niveau in meer dan vijf maanden.

GOLD (Spot) intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot: 1760.00
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1760 with 1786 & 1791 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1760 will call for 1753 & 1744.
Comment: intraday support around 1760

Forex:
AUD/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 1.017
Our preference: Short positions below 1.017 with targets @ 1.006 & 1 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.017 look for further upside with 1.0225 & 1.026 as targets.
Comment: technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.3555
Our preference: Short positions below 1.3555 with targets @ 1.3425 & 1.338 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3555 look for further upside with 1.36 & 1.364 as targets.
Comment: the pair stands below its new resistance and remains under pressure

GBP/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 1.5825
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5825 with targets @ 1.5680 & 1.566 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5825 look for further upside with 1.5875 & 1.5930 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains under pressure, the RSI is mixed to bearish

USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 77.45
Our preference: Short positions below 77.45 with targets @ 76.75 & 76.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 77.45 look for further upside with 77.9 & 78.3 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains under pressure

EUR/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 104.75
Our preference: Short positions below 104.75 with targets @ 103 & 102.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 104.75 look for further upside with 105.35 & 105.8 as targets.
Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.

Sterling locked in euro crisis tug of war
Sterling is stuck in a tug of war. On the one hand, it has gained haven status, strengthening when prospects for the eurozone look ever more dire. On the other, as the outlook for the UK economy worsens – as highlighted by the Bank of England on Wednesday – the pound is tending to weaken.
The fact that the pound initially rose against the euro on Wednesday, largely shrugging off a warning from the Bank that inflation had probably peaked and more quantitative easing was on the horizon, is a sign that the first factor is winning – for now at least.
Indeed global currencies have been largely ignoring domestic fundamentals in the current eurozone crisis. Instead the so-called risk on, risk off trade – whereby investors and traders flee anything deemed risky and seek shelter in the dollar on “risk off” days, reversing the process when risk is back on – is dominating markets.
Under normal conditions, positive data for the US should send the dollar higher. But on Wednesday, figures showing a rise in US industrial production in October, a positive signal on the economy, sparked a fall in the dollar against the euro. That is because any event deemed positive for the global economy prompts investors to leave the shelter of the dollar. Sterling is also at the mercy of these forces. With the euro dominating markets, traders are following the movements of the euro/dollar – the most liquid currency pair – even more closely than usual. Wednesday was a risk-off day – so sterling failed to weaken significantly against the euro after the Bank’s report was released in spite of rising expectations among analysts that the next round of QE could come into force as early as December.
“In times of euro stress, sterling is definitely a haven as it outperforms the euro – in some ways independently of what happens in the UK,” says Steven Saywell at BNP Paribas.
But analysts are divided over how long the pound can keep ignoring the fundamentals of the UK economy.
Average external forecasts published by the Bank on Wednesday predicted that gross domestic product growth would be just 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and that inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, would be 2.1 per cent. In October this year, inflation was 5 per cent. Most analysts think this dwindling threat of inflation will encourage the Bank to introduce further QE.
The easy conclusion to draw from this is that the pound is likely to weaken.
“We question how long inflows can be sustained for the UK, a low-growth, high-debt and eurozone-exposed economy,” say analysts at UBS, who predict that the pound will fall to $1.55 in a month – from over $1.57 presently – and to $1.50 in three months.
Morgan Stanley thinks that more QE will put sterling “under further downward pressure”.
There is also general agreement that if no clear solution to the eurozone debt crisis is reached in the coming months, the pound and the UK, as a key trading partner, will suffer too.
But some still argue that the relative safety of sterling will stay to the fore.
They say that quantitative easing in the US has had the effect of reducing the downward pressure on sterling in times of market stress. After Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, sterling slid dramatically against the dollar as demand for the US currency was so high. With more dollars now in circulation, some analysts say sterling is depreciating less by comparison.
Another possible outcome is that lower inflation next year could make sterling’s real yield – the 10 year government bond yield minus the rate of inflation – look attractive compared with the euro.
Peter Kinsella at Commerzbank points out that sterling currently has the lowest real yield – at a negative 2.56 per cent – among the main major currencies due to its high inflation thus far. But with the Bank predicting inflation will fall below its 2 per cent target, real yields could become positive in the UK while they stay negative in the US – currently minus 0.83 per cent – and Germany, at a negative 1.1 per cent.
“What is obvious is that inflation will not likely be one of the main issues running against the pound in the new year, hence the potential to outperform on a relative basis,” he says.
One thing is clear: in current market conditions, those placing bets that sterling will weaken are assuming that the eurozone will find a solution to its problems.
As Mr Saywell says: “We are bearish on sterling but a lot of that’s premised on a return to normality.”
With Italian bond yields spiking into dangerous territory above 7 per cent again on Wednesday, few are daring to predict a return to normality any time soon.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
14:30 cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets fell sharply in the final trading hour yesterday following a report from Fitch on the exposure of US banks to Europe. The Dow (11905.59) was down 1.58% and the Nasdaq (2639.61) was down 1.73%. The Dow is facing strong Resistance near 12200 over the last several days. Having said this the chances of seeing 12500-600 is reducing and we see a threat of a sharp fall from current levels itself.
Most of the Asian markets are trading lower except for Taiwan (7390.44, up 0.04%) and Australia (4322.50, up 0.20%) which are trading slightly higher. Nikkei (8436.69) is down 0.32%, Shanghai (2466.64) is down 0.01% and Hong Kong (18759.70) is down 1.06%. In India, the Sensex (16775.87, down 106.80 points) and Nifty (5030.45, down 38.05 points) had closed lower for the sixth consecutive trading day and is keeping up our bearish view intact for a test of 15500-15000 and 4600-4500 respectively in the coming weeks/months.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (101.93) has risen past the important psychological level of 100 and remains strong. While above 100, the upside is open for test of 113-115 once again. Intermediate Resistance is seen near 103.
Gold (1760.70) is inching down slowly over the last few days. The immediate outlook is mixed and we will have to wait and watch the market for some time to get clear idea on the further direction of move.
Silver (33.83) is retaining its 33-36 sideways range. Looking at the daily candle chart, our bias is leaning towards the downside breakout of this 33-36 region which could pull it down to 30-29 on the downside.
Copper (3.43) remains weak and we see a threat of sharp fall to 3.00-2.80 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3469) is not being able to hold up above 1.3500 but has Support at 1.3415 on intra-day basis. Look for a range of 1.3510-3415 today. Weakness in the Euro has rubbed off on the Pound (1.5718) which broke below the 1.5900 level a couple of days ago and has been falling since then. Further losses towards 1.5600-5570 look possible. The Aussie (1.0070) has also been losing ground and can test 1.0000 while below 1.0135.
Dollar-Yen (77.03) is trading just above 77.00 but has immediate Resistance at 77.10. Failure to rise past 77.10 could make it vulnerable to a dip towards 76.90. Dollar-Swiss (0.9200) remains bullish, but has an intra-day Resistance at 0.9235. Support seen at 0.9170.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2962) is trading above 1.2900 again and is in a good uptrend to target 1.31 in the longer term. The Korean Won trades weak near 1138.95. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 50.74 yesterday. Expect trading to be mixed today.
INTEREST RATES
In EU, Italian 10Y bond remained stable at 7% which is generally viewed as a crucial threshold long-term borrowing rate. The contagion concern prevailed in the debt market. The German bunds came off increasing the yields across all tenors by 2-3bps, 2Y closed at 0.35% (-3bps) and 30Y at 2.49% (-2bps).
In US, contrary to its German counterpart US treasuries rallied compressing the yields 1-4bps for 5Y,10Y and 30Y maturities with far end slipped more, 30Y yields closed at 3.01% (-4bps). The demand US treasuries are increasing outside US as well; China has increased the holding by 1% to US$ 1.5 trillion. US core inflation came off in Oct�11 to 1% and industrial production are also moving northward (0.7% MoM) with low inventory-sales ratio indicates toward better fundamental of the economy.
In India, 10Y GOI rallied pulling down the yields to 8.89% (-3bps).

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan vlak zoals Wall street gisterenavond, Nikkei 225 op +0.19%. AEX futures ook vlak. Eur/Usd veert iets op 1.35048.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 17 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS- Ahold, cijfers KW3
- AMT Holding, trading update KW3
- AND, trading update KW3
- BAM, cijfers KW3
- Batenburg beheer, trading update KW3, na beurs
- Fugro, trading update KW3, na beurs
- ICT, trading update KW3
- MdxHealth, trading update KW3
- Pharming, cijfers KW3
- SNS Reaal, investeerdersdag
- SBM Offshore, trading update KW3, 7:30 uur
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, werkloosheid, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Oeso, economische groei, KW3, 12.00 uur
- VS, nieuwe huizenverkopen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 12 november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

Het in economisch zwaar weer verkerende Hongarije heeft donderdagavond met tegenzin om nieuwe bijstand gevraagd van het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF).
Dat heeft het ministerie van Economie bevestigd.
In een verklaring benadrukte het ministerie dat Hongarije een ''nieuwe samenwerking'' wil met het IMF. Het land vraagt geen krediet, maar wel een verzekering om het veiliger te maken voor investeerders in Hongarije, aldus het ministerie.
In 2008 kreeg Hongarije al 20 miljard euro aan leningen van het IMF, de EU en de Wereldbank.
Hongarije gaat gebukt onder de hoogste staatsschuld van Oost-Europa, zo'n 74 procent van het bruto nationaal product. Daarnaast staat de Hongaarse forint zwakker dan ooit tegenover de dollar, euro en Zwitserse frank.
De gesprekken met het IMF komen op een moment van bezorgdheid onder investeerders. Acht buitenlandse banken eisen dat de Europese Commissie Hongarije tot de orde te roept. De regering dwingt hen verliezen te aanvaarden op miljarden aan uitstaande leningen.

De nieuwe Italiaanse regering onder leiding van Mario Monti heeft donderdagavond het vertrouwen gekregen van een meerderheid van de Senaat.
Eerder had Monti de politici opgeroepen zijn "regering van nationale verbondenheid" te steunen, omdat deze moet zorgen voor een herstel van de economie en het voorkomen van een ineenstorting van de euro.
Monti's nieuwe regering kreeg het vertrouwen van 281 senaatsleden, 25 leden stemden tegen.
Voorafgaand aan de stemming stelde Monti dat de agenda van zijn regering gebaseerd is op drie pijlers: fiscale discipline, economische groei en sociale rechtvaardigheid.
Vrijdag volgt nog een stemming van vertrouwen in het Huis van Afgevaardigden.
De Duitse, Franse en Italiaanse regeringsleiders stellen donderdag klaar te zijn voor de gedeelde verantwoordelijkheid in het zekerstellen van de stabiliteit en welvaart van de eurozone.
In een gezamenlijke verklaring melden de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel, Franse president Nicolas Sarkozy en de nieuwe Italiaanse premier Mario Monti dat zij donderdag telefonisch contact hebben gehad om de financiele en economische situatie binnen de eurozone meer in detail te bespreken.
Sarkozy en Merkel hebben Monti gefeliciteerd met zijn nieuwe rol als regeringsleider en met zijn "vastberadenheid alle nodige stappen met spoed te ondernemen", waaraan beiden toevoegen Monti volledig te steunen.
De drie leiders geven tevens aan dat zij een akkoord hebben bereikt om de tijdens G-20 top in Cannes eerder deze maand voorgestelde "maatregelen versnelt door te voeren." De maatregelen zijn gericht op financiele stabiliteit en economische groei in de eurozone.
Monti heeft Sarkozy en Merkel uitleg gegeven over zijn plannen voor het herstellen van het vertrouwen van de financiele markten en het oplossen van de economische situatie in Italie.
De Italiaanse premier bevestigt nogmaals zijn wil maatregelen aan te nemen die gericht zijn op begrotingsconsolidatie en structurele hervormingen bedoelt om de economische groei weer op gang te brengen, met behoud van de sociale zekerheid.

In Wall Street wogen donderdag de zorgen over de schuldencrisis zwaarder dan positief nieuws uit eigen land. De hoge rente die Spanje en Frankrijk moeten betalen over de nieuwste staatsleningen, baart beleggers zorgen.
De Dow-Jonesindex van dertig grote fondsen sloot 1,1 procent lager op 11770,80 punten. De breder samengestlde S&P 500-index zakte 1,7 procent naar 1216,28 punten. De Nasdaq-index, van belang voor de technologiesector, gaf 2 procent prijs op 2587,99 punten. De dertig grote fondsen van de Dow-Jonesindex stonden alle in de min.
De rente op Spaanse staatsleningen is gestegen naar 6,98 procent. Beleggers zien 7 procent als een kritische grens. Zowel Griekenland als Portugal moest zijn toevlucht nemen tot noodhulp toen de rente op hun obligaties dat niveau bereikte.
Koersdaling

Bij de zorgen over de Europese schulden daalde de koers van de euro ten opzichte van de dollar van 1,352 bij het sluiten van de beurzen in Europa naar 1,3462.
De olieprijzen daalden met meer dan 3 procent.
Er was wel goed nieuws uit eigen land. Het aantal aanvragen voor bijstand was in de VS in 7 maanden niet meer zo laag geweest. Bovendien was het aantal nieuwe bouwvergunningen voor huizen boven verwachting. Deze cijfers duiden op het aantrekken van de economie in de VS, maar gevreesd wordt dat de schuldenlast van de Europese landen wereldwijd gevolgen zal hebben voor de economie.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn donderdag lager gesloten, vanwege zorgen over een verslechtering van de schuldencrisis nadat de rente op Spaanse obligaties tot recordhoogte steeg.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot donderdag 1,1% lager op 2.242,78. De DAX-30 daalde 1,1% tot 5.850,17, de CAC-40 sloot 1,8% lager op 3.010,29 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,6% op 5.423,14.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn donderdag lager gesloten, terwijl de rente op Spaanse en Italiaanse 10-jarige staatsleningen in de middag iets terugliepen. Beide ontwikkelingen kwamen voort uit een obligatie-opkoop door de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) en geruchten dat de ECB geld gaat lenen aan landen in de eurozone die het risico lopen niet langer kredietwaardig te zijn.
Eerder op donderdag betaalde Spanje de hoogste risico-opslag sinds de invoering van de euro. Spanje veilde EUR3,6 miljard aan staatspapier met een looptijd tot januari 2022 tegen een risico-opslag van 7,088%.
"Die veiling verliep niet goed en met een rente van rond de 7% wordt de financiering steeds lastiger. De opgelopen rente is een signaal dat het vertrouwen verder afneemt", reageerde een handelaar.
De Spaanse rente op 10-jarig staatspapier stond omstreeks 19.10 uur op 6,643%, waar Italie 6,842% noteerde.
Frankrijk haalde donderdag EUR6,98 miljard op met de veiling van twee-, vier- en vijf-jarige leningen. Het renteverschil tussen 10-jarige Franse en Duitse staatsleningen tikte donderdag het recordniveau van 200 basispunten aan. Omstreeks 19.10 uur bedroeg het verschil nog 168 basispunten.
De bundfuture voor december eindigde donderdag 139 basispunten lager op 137,32. De Duitse bundfuture is een standaardtermijncontract op een mandje van de tien meest recente tienjarige staatsleningen in Duitsland.

De Amsterdamse beurs is donderdag met verlies gesloten, waarbij beleggers met name in afwachting waren van een moeizame Spaanse veiling en daarna hun aandacht vestigden op uiteindelijk gemengde macro-economische cijfers in de VS.
De AEX-index sloot donderdag 1,45% lager op 290,21 punten. De Midkap verloor 1,9% op 441,93 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 2,2% lager op 382,16 punten.

De olieprijs is donderdag lager gesloten, vanwege aanhoudende zorgen over de crisis in Europa en de gezondheid van de wereldwijde economie. Daarnaast vroegen beleggers zich af of het optimisme over een pijpleiding-akkoord overschat was.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $3,77 lager op $98,82.

Since opening fairly flat US stock markets have headed lower, aided by a worse than expected Philly Fed reading for November and with comments from a Euro-zone official who said there are no plans for any financial assistance programme in Italy from the EFSF. Particular weakness was seen in the Basic Materials today, especially as WTI crude came under pressure, with Peabody down 7.35%, and Freeport McMoRan down 4.50%. The S&P 500 finished down 1.67%, DJIA down 1.13% and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.25%.

Yelp files for $100 million IPO
(CNNMoney) -- Yelp is the newest member of the Internet company IPO parade this year. The local business reviews site filed on Thursday afternoon to raise up to $100 million in a public offering.
Yelp, based in San Francisco, has not yet said which exchange its stock will trade on or how many shares it plans to sell.
Founded in 2004, Yelp has developed a ubiquitous brand and amassed more than 22 million reviews of restaurants, salons, dentists and other businesses. But like many other tech companies testing the public markets this year, it isn't yet profitable.
For the first nine months of 2011, Yelp had a net loss of $7.6 million on sales of $58.4 million. During the same period in 2010, Yelp lost $8.6 million on $32.5 million in revenue.
Yelp's main revenue stream is selling advertising to local and national businesses. It also runs daily deals, but in August Yelp cut half its sales staff in that unit.
Yelp's filing revealed that Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), which is developing its own Yelp-like offerings, is a key traffic source -- which puts Yelp in a precarious position. At a Senate hearing earlier this year on Google, Yelp CEO Jeremy Stoppelman testified about Yelp's growing rivalry with the search Goliath.
"[Google] has promoted its own competing products, including Google's local products, in its search results," Yelp wrote in its filing. "Given the large volume of traffic to our website and the importance of the placement and display of results of a user's search, similar actions in the future could have a substantial negative effect on our business and results of operations.
Last quarter, about 61 million unique visitors hit Yelp's site, and around 5 million used its mobile app.
Like some other Internet companies, Yelp has a dual-stock structure that lets the company's insiders retain significant control over corporate decisions even after others become stockholders. Google and Facebook have similar structures.
Stoppelman and other executives hold "Class B" shares, which have 10 times the voting power of other shares. It's an approach that is controversial with shareholder advocates but popular among tech startups that want to ensure that their founders are able to retain control and execute their vision.
Yelp's unprofitable status may not spook investors if past IPO performances are any indication. Earlier on Thursday, another reviews site popped in its public debut: Angie's List (ANGI) shares jumped 33% when it started trading.
The list of other 2011 Internet IPOs is full of companies that have spotty or nonexistent profitability records.
This month, shares of daily-deals site Groupon (GRPN) popped 31% in its debut, despite criticism of unorthodox accounting measures that led to several downward revisions of its financials. The IPO raised $700 million for Groupon's corporate coffers, making it the second-biggest tech IPO in history, behind the $1.7 billion Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) raised in 2004.
Professional networking site LinkedIn's (LNKD) shares more than doubled in its May IPO, even though the company turned only slight profits in 2010 and 2006 and has otherwise has been in the red every year since its 2003 inception. The stock is still trading well above its IPO price

Forex:
Euro falls vs dollar on European debt worries
NEW YORK (AP) -- The euro fell to a five-week low against the dollar Thursday as traders worried that Europe's debt crisis is spreading to larger countries.
Borrowing rates in Spain spiked to their highest level since 1997, a sign that investors are worried that the country may have trouble paying its debt. Many economists believe that Spain's higher rates are unsustainable over the long term. Rates in France and Italy have also jumped higher this week.
Greece, Portugal and Ireland were forced to seek a bailout after their borrowing rates rose above 7 percent. The rates in Spain and Italy were hovering near 7 percent Thursday.
The euro fell to $1.3466 in late trading Thursday from $1.3512 late Wednesday. The euro fell to $1.3421 earlier in the day, its lowest point since Oct. 10.
In other trading, the British pound fell to $1.5758 from $1.5776. The dollar rose to 0.9198 Swiss franc from 0.9170 Swiss franc and to 1.0280 Canadian dollar from 1.0198 Canadian dollar. The dollar was practically unchanged at 76.95 Japanese yen. It was worth 76.94 Japanese yen late Wednesday.

EUR/USD – Ongoing debt and political concerns surrounding Eurozone countries, with emphasis on Italy and Spain, once again dominated the trading session. However in spite of less than impressive bond auctions from Spain, the pair finished the session higher following renewed speculation of aggressive peripheral bond buying by the ECB via the SMP which in turn resulted in sharp tightening of various bond yield spreads in respect to the benchmark German Bund. Still, persistent concerns pertaining to Eurozone banks’ funding continued to exerted pressure on Eurodollar and Euribor futures. GBP/USD The pair finished the session higher following the release of higher than expected retail sales data, as well as renewed speculation that the ECB will boost purchases of various government bonds via the SMP program to stabilise the sovereign debt crisis. Much of the attention remained on the Eurozone and the pair traded in tandem with the EUR/USD which also settled in slight positive territory. USD/JPY – Despite speculation that the ECB will boost the size of bond purchases via the SMP, the pair settled in minor negative territory after various German officials spoke vehemently against using the ECB to prop up struggling EU countries. In terms of Japanese specific commentary, Japanese exports and output growth will likely be flat for the time being before resuming a moderate increase according to the BoJ. They also added that however the outlook for exports is highly uncertain.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
8:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 16:00 cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
Its a blood bath all over. Yesterday we mentioned that the chances of seeing 12500-600 is reducing and wesee a threat of a sharp fall from current levels itself. The US markets fell sharply yesterday. The Dow (11770.73) was down 1.13% and the Nasdaq (2587.99) was down 1.96%. Important to note is that the Nasdaq has closed below the significant 2600 level and while below 2600, the downside open for further fall to 2400 now.
The Asian markets are trading sharply lower. Nikkei (8367.24) is down 1.33%, Shanghai (2444.41) is down 0.76%, Hong Kong (18470.10) is down 1.85% and Taiwan (7289.51) is down 1.33%. The Sensex (16461.71, down 314.16) and Nifty (4934.75, down 95.70 points) tanked further yesterday. The India equity marekts had closed lower for the sixth consecutive day and remains bearish for a test of 15500-15000 on the Sensex and 4600-4500 on the Nifty.
COMMODITIES
Strong fall in the Commodities space yesterday. Nymex Crude (98.71) tanked below 100 from its high of 103.37. It has Support near current levels. Failure to bounce back above 100 would see 96 on the downside.
Gold (1725.40) fell sharply breaking below 1750. Important Support is seen at 1700 which needs to be watched. A break below 1700 would be very bad.
Silver (31.52) fell sharply as expected and could extend its fall to 30-29.
Copper (3.38) remains weak and is keeping up the chances of seeing 3.20-00 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
No respite. Asian stocks all in the red. Gold below 1740. Euro (1.3502) trading sideways between 1.3425-3525, remains bearish overall. The Euro-Yen Cross (103.85) has also been trading sideways and has good Resistance in the 104.25-35 region. Dollar-Yen (76.93) has also been trading sideways but might fall later in the day. A fall towards 76.50 is a possibility.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9187) remains in an uptrend with Support at 0.9135. The Pound (1.5778) has bounced a bit from yesterday's low near 1.5691 but remains quite bearish overall with Resistance in the 1.5825-40 region. The Aussie (1.0016) is also pushing lower and is in danger of falling towards 0.9754.
In Asia, the ADXY (115.75) is trading below and looks very bearish to us. The USD-SGD (1.2939) is in a good uptrend and could surge. The Korean Won (1132.15) is also weakening. Although there can be chances of corrective dips in the Dollar against the Asians, the overall trend is bullish for the Dollar. The Rupee (50.91) continues to weaken and may see 51+.
INTEREST RATES
In EU, Spanish borrowing cost increased with 10Y Spanish bond yields hitting high of 6.781% on bond auction by Spain. The German bunds as well inched up significantly between 5 to 7 bps across all maturities, 2Y closed at 0.41% (+5bps), 5Y at 0.95% (+7bps) and 30Y at 2.55%(+6bps). European debt crisis is deepening with time.
US treasuries are becoming favored asset. The prices of treasuries rallied compressing the yields, 10Y and 30Y yields came off by 2bps to 1.97% and 2.99% respectively. Unemployment claims dipped by 5K to 388K for the week ended 12 Nov, marked as third consecutive weekly fall. Those it is too early to conclude that the economy is doing well with time but its interesting to see that in yesterday release inflation came off (1%), Production index increased (0.7% MoM) and low inventory-sales ratio.
In India, 10Y GOI bond yields came off to 8.85% (-4bps).

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan eindigt de week negatief, Nikkei 225 op -1.23%. AEX futures geven ook een lagere opeing weer. Eur/Usd ligt vlak rond de 1.34900.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 18 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Value8, trading update KW3
- ABN AMRO, trading update KW3
- Boskalis, trading update KW3, 8:00
- Hydratec, trading update KW3
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, oktober, 8.00 uur
- VS, leidende indicatoren, oktober, 16.00 uur
MAANDAG 21 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Ahold, capital markets day
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, september, 9.30 uur
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, oktober, 16.00 uur
DINSDAG 22 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, economische groei KW3, 2e raming, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 23 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Tie Holding, jaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, november, 9.30 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, november, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 18 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, persoonlijke inkomens en bestedingen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, duurzame goederen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 18 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 24 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, aangepaste cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Dui, Ifo index ondernemersvertrouwen, november, 10.00 uur
- VK, bbp KW3, tweede raming, 10.30 uur
- VS, Wall Street gesloten vanwege Thanksgiving Day
VRIJDAG 25 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten

Topic:
–Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
–Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De conservatieve volkspartij Partido Popular heeft de verkiezingen in Spanje gewonnen met een absolute meerderheid van 186 zetels.

De Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel en de Britse premier David Cameron zijn het oneens over de invoering van een Europese transactietaks.
Duitsland pleit voor de invoering van een belasting op financiële transacties. Groot-Briannië is tegen. Op een persconferentie na afloop van een Duits-Britse top vrijdag gaf bondskanselier Merkel toe dat de twee leiders geen overeenstemming hadden bereikt over de invoering van deze belasting.
De twee landen zijn het evenmin eens over de aanpak van de schuldencrisis in de eurozone. Premier Cameron pleitte voor ´doortastend ingrijpen´ om de eurozone te stabiliseren, terwijl bondskanselier Merkel liet doorschemeren dat zij meer voor een stapsgewijze aanpak is.

Wall Street is vrijdag gemengd gesloten. Een mogelijk nieuw plan voor financiering van toekomstige Europees reddingsoperaties woog op tegen zorgen over vooruitgang in gesprekken over de Amerikaanse schuldenlast.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 0,2% hoger op 11.796,16 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 sloot vlak op 1.215,65 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 0,8% afstond tot 2.253,95 punten.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn vrijdag lager gesloten, onder druk gezet door aanhoudende zorgen over het vermogen van de leiders van de eurozone om grip te krijgen op de escalerende schuldencrisis, waardoor een groeiend risico voor de bankensector in de eurozone en de wereldwijde economie ontstaat.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot vrijdag 0,3% lager op 2.236,68. De DAX-30 daalde 0,9% tot 5.800,24, e CAC-40 sloot 0,4% lager op 2.997.01 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,1% op 5.362,94.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn vrijdag lager gesloten. De daling ontstond door berichten dat de Duitse leningen in Azie van de hand gingen en handelaren ook de bunds inleverden voor Amerikaanse Treasuries.
Daarbij werd de markt gedrukt doordat een plan aan kracht leek te winnen waarin de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) geld leent aan het Internationale Monetaire Fonds (IMF) dat vervolgens terecht komt bij de lidstaten met schuldproblemen.

De Amsterdamse beurs is vrijdag met 0,8% verlies gesloten, met name doordat de zorgen over de Europese schuldencrisis het sentiment wederom bepaalden.
De AEX-index sloot vrijdag 0,8% lager op 288,01 punten. De Midkap verloor 0,8% op 438,57 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 0,7% lager op 379,66 punten.

De olieprijs is vrijdag lager gesloten tot onder de $98 per vat, waarmee de daling van eerder deze week doorzet.
De decemberfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot vrijdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,41 lager op $97,41.

GOLD (Spot) intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 1735.00
Our Preference: SHORT positions below 1735 with 1710 & 1696 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1735 will open the way to 1753 & 1767.
Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1735.

Forex:
AUD/USD intraday: consolidation
Pivot: 1.009
Our preference: Short positions below 1.009 with targets @ 0.9965 & 0.99 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.009 look for further upside with 1.012 & 1.017 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

EUR/USD intraday: key resistance at 1.3615.
Pivot: 1.3615
Our preference: Short positions below 1.3615 with targets @ 1.348 & 1.3425 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3615 look for further upside with 1.3695 & 1.3735 as targets.
Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure.

GBP/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.5895.
Pivot: 1.5895
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5895 with targets @ 1.5745 & 1.5685 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5895 look for further upside with 1.593 & 1.598 as targets.
Comment: the pair has struck against its strong resistance and remains under pressure.

USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 77.2
Our preference: Short positions below 77.2 with targets @ 76.5 & 76.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 77.2 look for further upside with 77.45 & 77.9 as targets.
Comment: the pair is pulling back on its resistance ahead of a weakness.

EUR/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 104.4
Our preference: Short positions below 104.4 with targets @ 103.35 & 103 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 104.4 look for further upside with 104.75 & 105.35 as targets.
Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and should face a weakness.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD dropped further to 1.3421 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But fall from 1.4246 will remain in favor to continue as long as 1.3794 minor resistance holds. Below 1.3421 will extend the fall to retest 1.3145 support. Though, above 1.3794 will suggest that pull back from 1.4246 is completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still bounded in the consolidation from from 1.6039. However, medium term outlook is a bit mixed for the moment as it's uncertain whether rise from 2010 low, which is one leg of the consolidation, is finished at 1.4939 or not. We'll stay neutral fall. In any case, the next move, up or down, will still be part of the consolidation pattern. Above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 and above but strong resistance should be seen below 1.6039 high to bring reversal. Below 1.3145 will target 1.1875 and possibly below.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY's fall from 79.52 extended further last week and reached as low as 76.57. Downside momentum was not convincing, and the look of such fall is corrective. But after all, there is no sign of near term reversal yet. And, as long as 77.49 minor resistance holds, deeper decline could be seen to retest 75.56 low. Nonetheless, break of 77.49 will indicate that such corrective fall is finished and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 79.52 next.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 75.56 was strong, USD/JPY is still staying inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is still no clear indication of long term trend reversal even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd still favor further downside in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and USD/JPY could spiral down further to 70 psychological level.
In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD dropped further to as low as 1.5690 last week but recovered from there. Break of 1.5876 minor resistance argues that correction from 1.6165 is finished, inside mentioned 1.5631/5851 support zone. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for test on 1.6165 resistance. However, firstly, below 1.5690 will suggest that fall from 1.6165 has resumed. Secondly, break of 1.5631 support will argue that whole rebound from 1.5271 has finished and will bring deeper fall to retest this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Such consolidation should be in form of triangle and current development suggests that rise from 1.5271 is the fifth leg, the final leg of such pattern. Hence, while current rise from 1.5271 might extend higher, upside should be limited below 1.6746 resistance to conclude the consolidation finally. On the downside, break of 1.5271 support will indicate that the down trend from 2.1161 is finally resuming for a new low below 1.3503. Nevertheless, break of 1.6746 will invalidate this view and would likely bring stronger rally to 1.7043 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9235 last week. Even though upside momentum as not too convincing, there is no sign of near term reversal yet. Further rally is still in favor with 0.8953 support intact. Above 0.9235 will extend the rebound from 0.8567 to 0.9315 resistance. However, note again that the structure of the rebound from 0.8567 is still corrective looking. Below 0.8953 will suggest that such rebound is finished and should flip bias back to the downside for 0.8567 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1730 is already completed at 0.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term consolidation pattern. While further rise is likely, we'd expect strong resistance at 0.9916 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.8567 will indicate that rebound from 0.7065 is finished and will bring another fall back to 0.7710/8246 to extend the consolidation.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would still extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
9:30uur cijfers uit de Eurozone en 16:00 cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets had closed mixed on Friday. The Dow (11796.23) was up 0.22% while the Nasdaq (2572.50) was down 0.60%. The overall picture remains weak and the Dow could see a sharp fall in the coming days/weeks.
The Asian are continuing to trade weak and all the markets are in the red today as well. Nikkei (8365.04) is down 0.12%, Shanghai (2412.92) is down 0.15%, Hong Kong (18168.15) is down 1.75% and Taiwan (7063.29) is down 2.33%. The Sensex (16371.51, down 90.20) and Nifty (4905.80, down 28.95 points) had closed lower on Friday, its seventh consecutive lower close and remains bearish for a fall to 15500-15000 and4600-4500 respectively.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (97.80) trades below 100. Failure to sustain and close above 100 last week has reduced the chances of seeing further upside. While below 100, we see good chances of a pull back to 90 in the coming weeks.
Gold (1722.60) is continuing to trade lower and remains mixed. 1700 will be a very important level to be watched and a strong break below it could trigger further sharp fall.
Silver (32.19) has bounced back from Friday's low of 30.92. The overall picture remains weak for a test of 30-29 on the downside.
Copper (3.37) is getting some Support near 3.30. However, the broader bearish outlook remains intact for a test of 3.00-2.80 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3526) fell sharply from its high of 1.3614 on Friday and is now finding Support near 1.3500. The overall picture is still bearish, but while above 1.3500, a test of 1.3600-50 is possible once again. Dollar-Yen (76.81) trades below 77 and can test its Support in 76.50-35 region while below 77. The Euro-Yen Cross (103.90) remains mixed in a narrow range of 103.40-104.00.35 within its overall down trend.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9165) had bounced back well from Friday's low of 0.9084 and remains bullish with strong Support in 0.9100-0.9050 region. A strong break above its Resistance at 0.9225 would open doors for further rise to 0.9400-500. Cable (1.5751) looks bearish and can fall to 1.5600-5500 on a strong break below 1.5700. Aussie (0.9970) has good Resistance near 0.9100 and can fall sharply to 0.9750-00 while below 1.0100.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1138 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2978. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 51.3350-3450 and remains bullish with good Support in 51.00-50.90 region for further rise to 52 in the coming days.
INTEREST RATES
The German yields has risen further across all tenors. The 2Y (0.43%) was up 7bps, 5Y (1.02%) was up 4bps, 10Y (1097%) was up 15 bps and the 30Y (2.60%) was up 11 bps. The US yields are mixed with the 2Y at 0.29%, 5Y at 0.91%, 10Y at 1.98% and 30Y at 2.97%.

Actuele stand 6:00uur
Japan opent vlak, Nikkei 225 op -0.09%. Eur/Usd trekt aan op 1.35169.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
MAANDAG 21 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Ahold, capital markets day
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, consumptie van huishoudens, september, 9.30 uur
- NL, prijsontwikkeling bestaande koopwoningen, oktober, 9.30 uur
- VS, bestaande huizenverkopen, oktober, 16.00 uur
DINSDAG 22 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, economische groei KW3, 2e raming, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 23 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Tie Holding, jaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, november, 9.30 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, november, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 18 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, persoonlijke inkomens en bestedingen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, duurzame goederen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 18 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 24 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, aangepaste cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Dui, Ifo index ondernemersvertrouwen, november, 10.00 uur
- VK, bbp KW3, tweede raming, 10.30 uur
- VS, Wall Street gesloten vanwege Thanksgiving Day
VRIJDAG 25 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De Europese Commissie komt woensdag met voorstellen waarmee Brussel zijn controle over het begrotingsbeleid van eurozone-lidstaten aanzienlijk aanscherpt. Dat blijkt uit een conceptdocument ingezien door Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst.
De voorstellen dwingen noodlijdende eurozone-lidstaten tot regelmatige evaluatie van hun begrotingsbeleid en balans en voorzien in maatregelen waarmee de lidstaten middels een stemming onder mede-lidstaten effectief gedwongen kunnen worden om financiele steun te zoeken.
Verdragswijziging
De voorstellen zijn bedoeld ter versterking van de wijze waarop de eurozone wordt bestuurd en kunnen zo verstrekkend zijn als de Europese Commissie nodig acht zonder dat het verdrag van de Europese Unie gewijzigd hoeft te worden.
De maatregelen dienen ter aanvulling van reeds bestaande gemeenschappelijke middelen om de schuldencrisis te kunnen bestrijden.
Woensdag zal de Commissie tevens een document publiceren met een overzicht van opties voor de eurozone-lidstaten voor fondsenwerving via een gemeenschappelijke obligatiemarkt in de eurozone.
De Europese Centrale Bank heeft vorige week meer staatsobligaties opgekocht, nadat de financiële markten sceptisch reageerden op de regeringswissel in Italië en de rente van Spanje scherp opliep.
Dit blijkt uit de gegevens die de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) maandag heeft gepubliceerd.
De ECB rondde vorige week voor €7,99 mrd aan transacties van perifere staatsobligaties af. Een week eerder was dat nog maar €4,5 mrd. Niettemin hadden door persbureau Reuters geraadpleegde geldmarkthandelaren op veel forsere interventies gerekend. Zij gingen uit dat de ECB €10 mrd zou hebben uitgegeven om de onrust te bezweren.
In totaal bezit ECB nu €194,5 mrd
In totaal heeft de ECB nu €194,5 mrd aan perifere staatsobligaties op de balans staan. Afgelopen week liep €131 mln aan eerder opgekochte obligaties af en werden afgelost. Zoals iedere week zal de ECB op dinsdag een tender uitzetten om bij banken voor €194,5 mrd aan deposito's aan te trekken. Daarmee wil Frankfurt het nieuwe geld wat met de interventies in de markt wordt gepompt steriliseren.
De oproep van economen en landen aan de ECB om meer te doen en niet slechts op beperkte schaal obligaties op te kopen zwelt steeds verder aan. Eerder klonken al vanuit Portugal, Ierland, Spanje en Frankrijk smeekbedes aan de ECB om de in principe onbeperkte capaciteit van de balans in te zetten en zo de oplopende rentes op de staatsobligatiemarkt tot een halt te roepen.
Polen waarschuwt voor catastrofe
Maandag sloot de Poolse minister van financiën zich daarbij aan. 'We staan voor een verschrikkelijke keus, of een massale interventie van de ECB of een catastrofe', aldus Jacek Rostowski in de Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. 'Er is het gevaar van een historische economische ramp - als tijdens de Grote Depressie in de jaren dertig - die tot oorlog in Europa kan leiden.'
De Oostenrijkse centralebankgouverneur Ewald Nowotny, medebeleidsbepaler bij de ECB, stelde vandaag echter dat de regeringen van de eurolanden niet van de ECB kunnen verwachten dat die de schuldencrisis zal oplossen door geld bij te drukken. ECB-president Mario Draghi stelde vrijdag al dat de ECB haar geloofwaardigheid zal verliezen als het eerste mandaat van prijsstabiliteit wordt verlaten. Hij drong bij de eurolanden aan om eindelijk eens boter bij de vis te leveren en het Europese noodfonds daadwerkelijk te verhogen.

De Griekse premier Lucas Papademos zal dinsdag in Frankfurt de president van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi ontmoeten, meldt het secretariaat van de Griekse premier maandag.
De ontmoeting is onderdeel van een reeks vergaderingen die de premier in de loop van de week heeft met Europese regeringsleiders.
Maandag had Papademos een ontmoeting met d4rz7e Manuel Barroso, de voorzitter van de Europese Commissie, en met de president van de Europese Raad Herman van Rompuy om onder andere te praten over de volgende tranche aan steun aan het noodlijdende Griekenland en het nieuwe steunpakket ter waarde van EUR130 miljard.
Voor zijn ontmoeting in Frankfurt dinsdag zal Papademos een bezoek brengen aan de Luxemburgse premier Jean-Claude Juncker, tevens president van de eurogroep van ministers van financien uit de eurozone.
De reeks bezoeken markeren zijn eerste reis langs Europese regeringsleiders sinds zijn aantreden als interim premier van Griekenland na twee weken van politieke onrust in Athene, waarbij de toekomst van het Zuid-Europese land in de eurozone ter discussie kwam te staan.
De eerste taak van de nieuwe regering is het veiligstellen van de volgende steuntranche van EUR8 miljard. Half december is de staatskas van het noodlijdende land leeg.
Daarna zal de nieuwe regering het nieuwe EU-noodhulppakket moeten ratificeren en implementeren.

Wall Street is maandag lager gesloten, met name vanwege de voortdurende problemen in de eurozone en het gebrek aan vooruitgang in de gesprekken tussen Republikeinen en Democraten om overeenstemming te bereiken over een bezuinigingsplan om het Amerikaans begrotingstekort het hoofd te bieden.
De toonaangevende Dow Jones-index eindigde 2,1% lager op 11.547,3 punten. De breed samengestelde S&P 500 daalde 1,9% tot 1.192,98 punten, terwijl de technologiezware Nasdaq 1,9% afstond tot 2.523,14 punten.

Brussels Seeks More Control Over Euro-Zone Member Budgets
BRUSSELS—The European Commission will set out proposals Wednesday that would significantly tighten Brussels' control over the budget policies of euro-zone member states, according to draft documents.
The proposals would see struggling governments forced to submit to frequent reviews of their policies and accounts, and could see euro-zone governments effectively forced to seek financial assistance by a vote of their peers.
The proposals are designed to strengthen the way the euro-zone is governed and go as far as the Commission believes it can without changing the European Union treaty. They come alongside efforts to boost the common resources available to fight the crisis.
On Wednesday, the Commission will also release a paper outlining options for pooling national governments' fund-raising through common euro-zone bond markets.
Germany has said it will only consider more ambitious pooling of euro-zone resources if strict rules are first created which prevent countries from running up large deficits or allowing their banking systems to become sources of regional instability.
The proposals allow for greater oversight of euro-zone countries and those seeking or in risk of needing assistance to re-establish "financial stability."
Under the plans, the Commission could decide when to place a country under so-called "enhanced surveillance." A country in the program must agree to regular reviews of its economic, financial and fiscal policies, including carrying out bank stress tests under conditions set by the European Banking Authority.
If a government does not comply with Brussels' demands, they could be locked out of EU budget funding, which can amount to billions of euros a year. Stepped-up oversight would continue until 75% of any financial aid from other governments is repaid.
Most controversially, a majority of euro-zone member states would be able to "recommend" that a country seeks financial assistance under the proposals. This would all but force the country's hand since the Commission proposes that this recommendation can then be made public.
Earlier this month, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi declined assistance from the International Monetary Fund, an offer other European countries were reportedly urging on it. In the future, the proposals could make it harder for a country to say no.
The plans would also see countries running a high deficit having to submit regular reports on its budget execution and the impact of any discretionary spending or tax measures. The country would also have to seek a complete external audit of its statistics.
If the EU's executive thinks the country is off track to cut its deficit, the Commission would offer a range of policy recommendations and a timeline for implementing them. It could also send those recommendations to the national parliament, raising the political heat on the government. The government must later respond with detailed answers on its plans for implementing the measures.
The Commission will also recommend Wednesday that all Euro zone governments write into law—preferably their constitutions—a balanced-budget amendment and rules that ensure independent growth and economic forecasts.
While the new rules would tighten oversight, they will undoubtedly fall short of what some governments—including Germany, the Netherlands and Finland—believe is necessary. They are seeking a set of watertight rules on country's fiscal managements and automatic sanctions for those who flout the requirements.
A separate Annual Growth report, also to be released Wednesday, will say that "in spite of the urgency of the situation, progress by member states in implementing" structural reforms "is below expectations."
The report will press governments to look beyond reactionary crisis-response emergency measures.
"This prolonged period of uncertainty needs to come to an end," the draft document says.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn Gisteren lager gesloten, vanwege de toenemende zorgen over besmettingsgevaar van de schuldencrisis.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot maandag 3,4% lager op 2.160,29. De DAX-30 daalde 3,4% tot 5.606,00, de CAC-40 sloot 3,4% lager op 2.894,94 en de FTSE-100 verloor 2,6% op 5.222,60.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn gisteren hoger gesloten, in tegengestelde richting van de fors dalende Europese aandelenmarkten, vanwege oplopende zorgen over besmettingsgevaar van de schuldencrisis.

De Amsterdamse beurs is gisteren met verlies gesloten nu de aandacht zich gedurende het weekend naar de VS verplaatste. Daar moet deze week een politiek besluit vallen over hoe de bezuinigingen moeten worden ingevuld, maar de opstelling van het voorstel verloopt stroef. Wall Street reageerde zeer negatief op deze pastelling en dat trok de aandelenmarkten in Europa nog verder omlaag.
De AEX-index sloot gisteren 3,2% lager op 278,84 punten, een niveau dat sinds begin oktober niet meer op het bord heeft gestaan. De Midkap zakte op het slot 3,9% naar 421,52 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 3% lager op 368,35 punten.

Will Spain follow Italy down the eurozone crisis path?
Is Spain the next Italy?
The short answer is no. But the two countries are begging for comparison, since they're among the largest economies in the eurozone. And they share the less-than-stellar distinction of seeing their bond yields soaring to sickening heights.
Spain's 10-year bond yield was trading at 6.37% on Friday. That's better than the 6.9% high it recently hit but it is still uncomfortably close to 7%. That was the benchmark crossed by Ireland, Greece and Portugal before they got bailed out by their eurozone neighbors.
Italy's bond yields crossed into the danger zone last week, when yields on Italian 10-year bonds traded as high as 7.48%. That marked the first foray above 7% since the euro was launched in 1999. And it sent waves of fear across world markets, with U.S. stocks sinking more than 3%.
It quickly raised questions about whether Italy was too big to fail. Answer: yes. It also raised questions about whether Italy was too big to bail. That answer was also yes.
Italy is the third-largest bond issuer in the world. It is also the third-largest economy in the eurozone, followed by Spain as the fourth. So the importance of these countries, and their potential impact on the rest of the world, cannot be overstated.
But Spain is in much better shape than Italy, as measured by debt and solvency. Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio is 60%, about half of Italy's 120%, according to Nick Stamenkovic, fixed income strategist for RIA Capital Markets in Edinburgh.
Eurozone bond yields under pressure
"There's a big difference between Italy and Spain in terms of the economy," he said, noting that the eurozone's average debt to GDP comes in around 85%. "The debt economics in Spain are a lot better."
Italy also carries a massive debt of €1.9 trillion, compared with Spain's relatively paltry debt of 660 billion, noted Deutsche Bank strategist Mohit Kumar.
That doesn't mean that Spain is without problems. The country has an astronomically high unemployment rate above 21%. It's also still suffering from the housing crisis fallout, said Stamenkovic, and its banks could be in better shape.
"The banking sector needs to be recapitalized," said Kumar. "That is a big concern for Spain. Solvency was never a concern."
Spanish banks need a cash infusion of about €26 billion, Kumar said, and while Spain can't come up the money without support, other countries could lend a hand.
"So long as the banking system gets sorted, I would be fine on Spain," he said.
But Italy does have a few advantages over Spain that should not be overlooked.
Eurozone teeters on edge of recession
According to Eurasia Group analyst Antonio Barroso, Italy's deficit last year was equal to 4.6% of its GDP, with a 2011 target of 3.9%. On the other hand, Spain's deficit was 9.2% last year, and there are doubts that it will meet its target of 6% this year.
Secondly, Barroso noted that Italy has a more diversified economy than Spain, led by companies like Fiat, ENI and Telecom Italia.
But with elections scheduled for Sunday, Spain could be in a better position to impose fiscal reforms, said Barroso. He expects the People's Party of Mariano Rajoy to secure a large majority and to impose fiscal stability measures, such as requiring local governments to balance their budgets to make sure deficit targets are met.
"Spain has the ability to pass fiscal and structural reform after elections, given that the winner party will have a large majority in parliament," he said. "In Italy, you have highly fragmented party system that is much messier."
This was made clear on Nov. 12, when scandalized Silvio Berlusconi stepped down from his position of Italian prime minister amid allegations of corruption and sexual activity with a minor. His last act was to pass budget reforms.

Home Sales Climb but Prices Tumble
Sales of previously owned homes improved in October and are on pace to surpass last year's anemic tally. But prices continued to fall, underscoring the broader market weaknesses.
The National Association of Realtors, which released its home-sales report Monday, said sales rose 1.4% in October from a month earlier and were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units. That puts sales on track to beat last year's level of 4.91 million units, which was the lowest level in 13 years.
While sales are improving, they remain weaker than some economists and housing analysts had anticipated, considering ...

De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is maandag gedaald, waarbij de dollar aan kracht won ten opzichte van de euro en pogingen in de Verenigde Staten van een "supercomite" om overeenstemming te bereiken over een bezuinigingsakkoord lekken te falen.

Forex:
Why the Euro Will Survive, and When You Should Buy It
The pain of a euro zone breakup would be too great, this strategist says, and Europeans know it. Neil Sedaka was right: breaking up is hard to do.
Chris Fernandes, vice president and forex advisor for Bank of the West, says Europeans realize this - and if they consider the history of past currency disasters, they'll see it's in their interest to keep the euro zone together.
"Look at the example of Argentina when they had to default" and devalue the currency, and then endure a run on banks, massive capital flight, and political unrest. "Despite the missteps and bickering, there is a firm commitment to the euro zone, and the euro zone will survive and stay intact," he told me. Fernandes points out that in a recent survey of Greek citizens, close to 70% wanted to stay in the euro zone, even though they were angry at the proposed reforms. Still, Fernandes expects the turmoil to continue for some time. So even though the euro [EUR=X Loading... () has held up surprisingly well, thanks partly to banks repatriating funds and traders' reluctance to get caught short, "there is definite downside pressure now," Fernandes says, and he's on the sidelines. When would he move in? "I would definitely be a buyer in the 1.3150 range, given no game changing developments between now and when the European Financial Stability Fund is up and running," Fernandes says, maybe in about a month and a half.

AUDUSD: Resumes Weakness, Sets Up For Further Weakness With Eyes On 0.9752 Level
AUDUSD: The pair has resumed its bearishness after a brief pause on Friday and now looks to recapture its immediate support at the 0.9865 level, representing its Oct 12'2011 low. A firm break of there will turn risk towards the 0.9752 level, its Oct 10'2011 low followed by the 0.9524 level, its rising trendline. The pair's continued decline is coming on the back of a loss of upside momentum at the 1.0749 level in late Oct'2011. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. On the other hand, AUDUSD will have to break and hold above the 1.0312 and the 1.0441 levels to reduce its downside pressure and then target the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. A breach of here will turn focus to the 1.0749 level, its Oct 27'2011 high. All in all, the pair remains weak and vulnerable to the downside in the short term on further declines.

GBP/USD Slides to 61.8% After Confirming Topping
The GBP/USD has been in a class topping action to be followed by a pullback and confirmation. After breaking below the base near 1.5870, the market ran down to 1.5687, pushing the RSI below 30, reflecting bearish momentum. Then from this pivot the market rallied back to test the 1.59 area as resistance. Note that the RSI shows maintenance of the bearish momentum as the reading failed to break above 60 in the 4H chart.
This also came to test the 200 period simple moving average in the 4H chart, and after a brief crack, we saw a sharp rejection. The fact there was a sharp rejection means even though the market cracked the 200SMA, we can still consider this a slingshot. In the early 11/21 US session, the market hovers above the 1.5612, 61.8% retracement level.
Note in the daily chart the strength of the bearish candle that represents the first global session. it continues to follow through a sling shot in this time-frame, as the market had respected the 200 day SMA after the October rally. The RSI also reflects continuance of bearish momentum, especially if it drops below 40 this week.
Below 1.56 psychological support, we open up 78.6% retracement at 1.5462, but also the lows tested earlier in September, which were also lows from August, September, and December of 2010 – near 1.5340. Considering this area provided support in the past year, it should be the limit for the current bearish outlook below 1.56, although the momentum, and price action hints at further downside.

USD/CAD Accelerates to 61.8% Retracement
The USD/CAD has a bullish stance in the daily chart. Momentum has been bullish since the end of July-beginning of August. The dip in October was not able to kill the bullish momentum as the RSI reading remains above 40, and is now trying to break above 60, which would show continuation momentum. Price action is trading above the 200 day simple moving average and is showing strength in moving away from it, accelerating to start this week toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0364. This area is also reinforced by the fact it was resistance 9/22-9/26.
The 1.0270-1.03 area should provide support on a throwback if the market is to be in bullish continuation. Price action accelerating out of a rising channel and the RSI (momentum) are aligned to the upside. If the market extends the rally further, we can see it open up the 78.6% retracement at 1.0492 and then the high at 1.0656.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
14:30uu cijfers uit de VS.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets tanked yesterday as the increasing fears on the debt crisis triggered a sharp sell off. The Dow (11547.31) was down 2.11% and the Nasdaq (2523.14) was down 1.92%. Dow has some Support near 11500 and a strong break below it would trigger further fall to 11000. Nasdaq can fall further to 2400-300.
The Asian markets are trading mixed. Taiwan (7051.69, up 0.13%), Korea (1825.33, up 0.29%) and Indonesia (3700.25, up 0.56%) are trading higher while Nikkei (8337.52, down 0.13%), Shanghai (2413.29, down 0.08%) and Hong Kong (18217.51, down 0.02%) are trading lower today. The Sensex (15946.10, down 425.41 points) and Nifty (4778.35, down 127.45) tanked yesterday and is heading towards our traget of 15000 and 4500 on the downside respectively.
Significant to note is that the sharp fall in the DAX (5606, down 3.35%) yesterday is singalling a threat of a good Head and Shoulder pattern on the daily chart and the DAX could now target 5100 on the downside.
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (97.16) is continuing to trade lower below 100. A test of 94 on the downside looks likely and break below 94 can take it further down to 91-88.
Gold (1686.80) has dropped below 1700 and we see a threat of a further fall to 1625 or even 1550 on the downside while below 1700.
Silver (31.46) fell sharply to test its significant Support at 30.50 and has bounced back from its low of 30.65. We see good chances of a fall to 29.00-28.00 on the downside in the coming days.
Copper (3.34) remains weak and is keeping up our bearish view intact for a test of 3.00-2.80 on the downside.
CURRENCIES
Scramble for CASH continues with Gold, the last asset standing, falling below 1700. This dash for cash translates into demand for Dollars, the closest equivalent to cash worldwide. With liquidity drying up, the Dollar is back in fashion.
In currencies, the Euro (1.3501) has Resistance at 1.3535-45. The Pound (1.5653) and the Aussie (0.9878) are trading weak. The Yen (77.07) has also weakened, from 76.61 on Friday.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.3020) has moved up quite a bit and can target 1.3250. The Korean Won (1144.88) has also weakened quite a bit, but the trend remains firmly Dollar-positive. In India too, the Rupee could well weaken further towards 52.40-60 after having closed near 52.17 yesterday.
INTEREST RATES
In EU, the German bunds yields have came off across all tenors between 4-6 bps, 2Y closed at 0.37% (-4bps) and 10Y at 1.91% (-5bps). The 10Y Italian bond prices rallied compressing the yields to 6.55% from last weekly high of 7.07%. In the US, 5Y and 30Y treasuries remained stable but 2Y yields dropped by 2bps to 0.27% and 10Y to 1.97% (-1bps).
In India, 10Y GOI yields came off further to 8.84% (-2bps).

Actuele stand 6:00uur
Japan minder dramatisch als Wall Street, Nikkei 225 op -0.52%. Eur/Usd in downtrend op weg naar 1.34.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DINSDAG 22 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- VS, economische groei KW3, 2e raming, 14.30 uur
WOENSDAG 23 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Tie Holding, jaarcijfers 2011
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, producentenprijzen, november, 9.30 uur
- Eurozone, producentenprijzen, november, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, industriele orders, september, 11.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 18 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, persoonlijke inkomens en bestedingen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, duurzame goederen, oktober, 14.30 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Universiteit van Michigan, november, 15.55 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 18 november, 16.30 uur
DONDERDAG 24 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, aangepaste cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Dui, Ifo index ondernemersvertrouwen, november, 10.00 uur
- VK, bbp KW3, tweede raming, 10.30 uur
- VS, Wall Street gesloten vanwege Thanksgiving Day
VRIJDAG 25 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

Sarkozy, Merkel en Monti donderdag bijeen
STRAATSBURG (AFN) - President Nicolas Sarkozy van Frankrijk, bondskanselier Angela Merkel van Duitsland en premier Mario Monti van Italië voeren donderdag overleg over de schuldencrisis in Europa. Vooral Frankrijk en Duitsland verschillen van mening over de aanpak.
Sarkozy is donderdag de gastheer en premier François Fillon van Frankrijk sprak van een ,,zeer belangrijke'' bijeenkomst. Maar volgens Monti is een een ,,heel informeel werkbezoek, zonder agenda''.

V.S. markten sluiten lager; Dow Jones 2.06% omlaag
V.S. aandelen gingen omlaag na de sluitingsbel op woensdag.
Aan het slot van de V.S. handel, daalde de Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.06%, verloor de S&P 500 index 2.21%, terwijl de Nasdaq 100 index 2.25% daalde.
Eerder op de dag, toonden officiële gegevens dat het aantal mensen dat voor de eerste keer een werkloosheidsuitkering aanvraagt in de VS steeg meer-dan-verwacht tot een seizoengezuiverd jaarlijks tarief van 393K vorige week van 391K in de voorgaande week welk figuur omhoog werd herzien van 388K. Analisten hadden verwacht dat de waarde van de aanvankelijke werkloze claims in de VS zou stijgen tot 390K vorige week.
Ondertussen, aan de andere kant van de Atlantische Oceaan, Europese aandelen markten sloten lager. Frankrijks CAC 40 ging omlaag 1.68%; Duitslands DAX verloor 1.44%; Brittannië’s FTSE 100 daalde 1.29%; en de EURO STOXX 50 daalde 1.87%.

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn woensdag lager gesloten, vanwege een zwakke veiling van Duitse bunds en tegenvallende macro-cijfers uit China.
De EuroStoxx 50 sloot woensdag 1,9% lager op 2.096,79. De DAX-30 daalde 1,4% tot 5.457,77, de CAC-40 sloot 1,7% lager op 2.822,43 en de FTSE-100 verloor 1,3% op 5.139,77.
Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn woensdag hard gedaald. Een mislukte veiling van Duitse staatspapieren voedde de angst dat de Europese schuldencrisis doordringt tot de kern van de eurozone.
Duitsland kreeg bij een veiling van nieuwe 10-jarige leningen een extreem lage vraag. Beleggers tekenden in voor een bedrag van slechts EUR3,9 miljard op een aanbod van EUR6 miljard. Uiteindelijk haalden de Duitsers ongeveer EUR3,6 miljard op.

De Amsterdamse beurs is woensdag met verlies gesloten na een zeer zorgwekkend verlopen veiling van nieuwe tienjarige Duitse bunds en zwakke industriele data uit de eurozone en China. Wall Street was woensdag verrassend zwak.
De AEX-index sloot woensdag 1,5% lager op 272,79 punten. Voor de derde achtereenvolgende dag sloot de AEX op zijn laagste punt van de dag. De Midkap verloor op het slot 1,4% op 415,00 punten. De Smallcap eindigde 1,9% lager op 358,56 punten.

De olieprijs is woensdag gedaald, vooral door zorgen om de schuldencrisis in de eurozone. Economische data uit de VS en daarbuiten konden het sentiment niet keren.
De januarifuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $1,84, of 1,9%, lager op $96,17.

GOLD (Spot) intraday: watch 1667
Pivot: 1712.00
Our Preference: SHORT positions below 1712 with 1676 & 1667 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1712 will open the way to 1725 & 1735.
Comment: A bearish flag pattern is confirmed, eye a drop toward 1667.

Forex:
AUD/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 0.981
Our preference: Short positions below 0.981 with targets @ 0.9655 & 0.9595 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.981 look for further upside with 0.989 & 0.994 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.343
Our preference: Short positions below 1.343 with targets @ 1.331 & 1.3275 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.343 look for further upside with 1.348 & 1.354 as targets.
Comment: the pair has broken below its strong support and remains under pressure as the RSI is badly directed.

GBP/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 1.5610
Our preference: Short positions below 1.5610 with targets @ 1.5495 & 1.5435 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5610 look for further upside with 1.569 & 1.574 as targets.
Comment: the pair has broken below its support and remains on the downside.

USD/JPY intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 77.05
Our preference: Long positions above 77.05 with targets @ 77.6 & 77.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 77.05 look for further downside with 76.85 & 76.7 as targets.
Comment: the pair has broken above its resistance, the RSI is well directed.

EUR/JPY intraday: key ST resistance at 104.4.
Pivot: 104.4
Our preference: Short positions below 104.4 with targets @ 103 & 102.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 104.4 look for further upside with 104.75 & 105.35 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is approaching its support.

USD/CAD Swing Projection Targets 1.0560 with Scope for Further Upside
The USD/CAD broke above recent consolidation which has 1.04 as a resistance. The break continues an ongoing uptrend in the medium-term since the October low near 0.9890. You can see in the 1H chart that the market has been respecting the 200 hour simple moving average and the RSI reading has been staying above 40, and tagging 70. Another tag of 70 in the RSI reading confirms bullish continuation momentum.
The current swing projection for the consolidation breakout targets 1.0560. The daily chart show a near-term resistance at 1.0493, 78.6% retracement. A more aggressive target however, which is valid considering market is also bullish in the daily chart, would be the 1.0656 2011-high established 10/4. A swing projection to 1.0750 is also in sight and satisfies structure of a projected rising channel in development.

AUD/USD - On To the Next Support Cluster at 0.9675
The AUD/USD continues to fall without really any corrective effort since 1.03. After breaking the 0.9900 support area near 61.8% retracement, the market is approaching the next one at 0.9675, near the 78.6% retracement level, and pivots established 9/22-9/26. Below that, we open up the 0.9386 2011 low established on 10/4. Note that the last time the market touched the lower Bollinger Band - 3 standard deviations away from the 200day simple moving average - the market rebounded. Therefore the bearish outlook should not be too aggressive as it nears the 0.94 area.

EUR/USD: Trading the German IFO Business Confidence Survey
As market participants see another drop in German business confidence, the IFO survey may weigh on the single currency as the data highlights a weakened outlook for the euro-area.
Trading the News: German IFO Survey (Expectations)
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 11/24/2011 9:00 GMT, 4:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 96.0
Previous: 97.0
DailyFX Forecast: 95.0 to 96.0
Why Is This Event Important:
The German IFO business confidence survey is anticipated to weaken for the fourth consecutive month in November, while market participants see the gauge for future expectations falling back to 96.0 from 97.0 in the previous month. As the data instills a weakened outlook for future growth, the development is likely to weigh on the exchange rate, and we may see the European Central Bank expand monetary policy further as the euro-area is expected to face a ‘mild recession.’ However, as the appears to be a growing rift within the Governing Council, the ECB may look to carry its current policy into the following year, and the central bank may continue to move away from its nonstandard measures as its asset purchase program comes under increased scrutiny.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside
Release Expected Actual
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P) 0.5% 0.5%
Producer Prices (YoY) (OCT) 5.3% 5.3%
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (NOV) 5.1 5.3
The Downside
Release Expected Actual
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (SEP) -0.9% -2.7%
Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (SEP) 0.1% -4.3%
Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) 1.0% 0.4%
Easing input costs paired with the rebound in consumer confidence could spur a rise in business sentiment, and an unexpected rise in the IFO survey could spark a relief rally in the EUR/USD as the data encourages an improved outlook for Europe’s largest economy. However, the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with fears of a deep recession may weigh on business confidence, and a larger-than-expect drop in the index could heighten the bearish sentiment underlying the single currency as growth prospects deteriorate. In turn, we may see the EUR/USD may extend the selloff from 1.4246, and the exchange rate may threaten the rebound from 1.3145 as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasing bleak.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
How To Trade This Event Risk
Expectations for a drop in the IFO survey casts a bearish outlook for the single currency, but an above-forecast print could pave the way for a long Euro trade as it raises the prospects for future growth. Therefore, if the IFO index holds steady from the previous month or unexpectedly increased from the previous month, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the release to establish a buy entry on two-lots on EUR/USD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first objective. The second target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in order to protect our profits.
In contrast, business optimism may deteriorate further in October as the slowing recovery raises the threat of a double-dip recession, and the weakening outlook for the euro-area may lead the ECB to carry its easing cycle into the following year as it aims to balance the risks for the region. As a result, if the gauge for future expectations slips to 96.0 or lower from the previous month, we will implement the same strategy for a short euro-dollar trade as the long position mentioned above, just in reverse.
Impact that the German IFO Business Confidence survey has had on EUR during the last month

Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event ) Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
OCT 2011 10/21/2011 8:00 GMT 97.0 97.0 +17 +155
October 2011 German IFO Survey (Expectations)

Business confidence in German slipped to a 16-month low in October, while the gauge for future expectations weakened to 97.0 from a revised 97.9 in the previous month to mark the lowest reading since July 2009. As the slowing recovery in Europe heightens the risk of a double-dip recession, firms may turn increasingly pessimistic towards the economy, and we may see the European Central Bank continue to soften its hawkish tone for monetary policy as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak. As the sovereign debt crisis drags on the real economy, the ECB may look to expand its nonstandard measures, but the Governing Council may target the benchmark interest rate as the governments operating under the monetary union become increasingly reliant on the central bank’s nonstandard measures. The Euro struggled to hold its ground following the release, with the EUR/USD slipping to a fresh daily low of 1.3703, but we saw the single currency quickly regain its footing to end the day at 1.3890.

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
10:00uur cijfers uit de Eurozone.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets fell further yesterday and is keeping up our bearish view intact for further fall. The Dow (11257.55) was down 2.05% and the Nasdaq (2460.08) was down 2.43%. Dow has a threat of breaking below 11000 and moving down to 10700-600 while the Nasdaq can test 2300 on the downside. The US markets are closed today on account of Thanksgiving day holiday.
The Asian markets are trading mixed. Shanghai (2378.64, down 0.69%) and Nikkei (8199.69, down 1.38%) are trading lower while Hong Kong (17942.02, up 0.43%), Taiwan (6879.66, up 1.08%) and Australia (4138, up 0.30%) are trading higher. The Sensex (15699.97, down 365.45 points) and Nifty (4706.45, down 105.90 points) tanked yesterday and remains bearish for a test of 15000 and 4500 respectively.
COMMODITIES
Commodities remain pressured on the downside. Nymex Crude (95.94) has dipped further and is keeping up our bearish view intact for a test of 94. Remember, as we have been mentioning for some time, the current fall can extend to 90 going foward.
Gold (1695.20) is gaining strength for a strong rise pat 1700 and is keeping alive the threat of a further fall to 1625.
Silver (31.67) has come off from its high of 32.87 and remains bearish for a test of 29 on the downside. Immediate Support is seen near 30.50.
Copper (3.23) has dipped further and is keeping up our bearish view intact for a test of 3.00-2.80 on the downside. Immediate Support is seen at 3.20 and a break below this Support would trigger the fall to 3.00-2.80.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3370) fell to a low of 1.3320 yesterday, reacting to the poor demand for German Bunds. But, good Support should be coming up at 1.3280 today. Dollar-Yen (77.02) did rise to 77.58 yesterday, but has dropped back today. Still, Support is seen at 76.90. The Euro-Yen Cross (103) remains bearish overall, however, targeting 100 on the downside.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9185) moved up a little yesterday and looks good for a rise towards 0.9285. The Pound (1.5550) dipped below 1.5500 yesterday, to a low near 1.5495. The overall trend remains bearish towards 1.5370. The Aussie (0.9731) fell to a low near 0.9663 yesterday, but has Support coming up in the 0.9550 region on the Monthly chart.
All the non-Dollar, non-Yen currencies had weakened substantially in the US session yesterday, but are seeing some short-covering in Asia today. Another dip is possible in the European session today, which could take the currencies down to some major long-term Supports.
Asian currencies are trading weaker. The USD-SGD trades higher near 1.3091 and the Won is trading weaker near 1156.85. Dollar-Rupee might be ranged between 52.60 on the upside and 52.20 on the downside. It is to be seen if the RBI's measures on ECB, NRI deposits and banks' net forex supply positions will help to cap the Dollar nearter to 52.50.
INTEREST RATES
US personal consumption expenditure increased to 0.1%. Consumer consumption accounts for 70% of the economy. The treasuries rallied compressing the yields across all tenors apart from 2Y maturities where yields increased to 0.27% (+2bps), 10Y closed at 1.89% (-3bps) and 30Y at 2.84% (-4bps).
German bunds prices contrary to its US counterpart came off and yields inched up, 2Y yields increased to 0.40% (+7bps), 10Y to 2.09% (+16bps) and 30Y to 2.74% (+14bps).
In India, 10Y GOI yields increased marginally by 1bps to 8.84%.

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan eindigt in de min, Nikkei 225 op -1.80%. De #aex futures geven een lagere opening weer. Eur/Usd in downtrend op weg naar 1.32.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
DONDERDAG 24 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, bbp KW3, aangepaste cijfers, 08.00 uur
- Dui, Ifo index ondernemersvertrouwen, november, 10.00 uur
- VK, bbp KW3, tweede raming, 10.30 uur
- VS, Wall Street gesloten vanwege Thanksgiving Day
VRIJDAG 25 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten

Topic:
–Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote

De Europese aandelenmarkten zijn gisteren gemengd gesloten, nadat winsten vanwege goed ontvangen macro-economische cijfers uit Duitsland grotendeels verdampten door aankondigingen van Europese regeringsleiders niet aan te zullen dringen op een versterking van de interventies door de ECB. De EuroStoxx 50 sloot gisteren 0,1% hoger op 2.098,43. De DAX-30 daalde 0,2% tot 5.449,42, de CAC-40 sloot 0,4% hoger op 2.834,29 en de FTSE-100 verloor 0,2% op 5.127,57. Europese staatsobligaties met een laag risico, zoals Duitse bunds, zijn gisteren lager gesloten, waarbij de teleurstellende veiling van een dag eerder nog nadreunde. De markten waren wisselvallig en de volumes laag, wat werd versterkt door Thanksgiving in de Verenigde Staten waardoor de beurzen daar gesloten waren.
Het bund-contract bereikte een laagste punt van de dag op 134,26, maar herstelde daarna door berichten over Dexia en uitspraken van de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel.

Minister van Financien Jan Kees de Jager heeft vandaag in Berlijn een ontmoeting met zijn Duitse en Finse collega's Wolfgang Schaeuble en Jyrki Katainen, zei een woordvoerder van het Duitse ministerie van Financien donderdag.
De drie ministers zullen zich gaan voorbereiden op bijeenkomsten van ministers van Financien van de zeventien eurolanden en de overige landen uit de Europese Unie die volgende week plaats zullen vinden.

De AEX is gisteren met een klein verlies gesloten. Het leek er lang op dat de Amsterdamse beurs met winst zou eindigen, maar commentaar van de Duitse bondskanselier Angela Merkel gooide roet in het eten. De AEX-index sloot gisteren 0,4% lager op 271,61 punten, de Midkap won 0,3% op 416,40 punten en de Smallcap eindigde 0,4% hoger op 359,98 punten.

Het Frans-Belgische Dexia sa (DEXB.BT), dat momenteel opgesplitst wordt, rekent op steun van de Emergency liquidity Assistance (ELA) voorzieningen van de centrale banken in de eurozone, meldt een bron bekend met de situatie gisteren. De centrale banken van de eurozone verstrekken leningen aan financials die vanwege een gebrek aan financieel onderpand geen gebruik kunnen maken van de leningen die de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) beschikbaar stelt.
De vorm van financiering door het ELA is over het algemeen duurder dan lenen bij de ECB en wordt verleend wanneer centrale banken van oordeel zijn dat financiele instellingen liquiditeitsproblemen hebben, maar nog niet insolvent zijn.
Dexia maakt momenteel alleen gebruik van ELA fondsen van de Belgische en Franse Centrale Bank, aldus de bron.

GOLD (Spot) intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1712.00
Our Preference: SHORT positions below 1712 with 1684 & 1667 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1712 will call for a rebound towards 1725 & 1735.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Forex:
AUD/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 0.981.
Pivot: 0.981
Our preference: Short positions below 0.981 with targets @ 0.9655 & 0.9595 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.981 look for further upside with 0.989 & 0.994 as targets.
Comment: as long as 0.981 is resistance, likely decline to 0.9655.

EUR/USD intraday: key resistance at 1.343.
Pivot: 1.343
Our preference: Short positions below 1.343 with targets @ 1.331 & 1.3275 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.343 look for further upside with 1.348 & 1.354 as targets.
Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and is challenging its previous low.

GBP/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 1.557
Our preference: Short positions below 1.557 with targets @ 1.548 & 1.5435 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.557 look for further upside with 1.561 & 1.569 as targets.
Comment: the pair is on the downside and is challenging its support.

USD/JPY intraday: consolidation.
Pivot: 77.35
Our preference: Short positions below 77.35 with targets @ 76.85 & 76.7 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 77.35 look for further upside with 77.6 & 77.75 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is approaching its support.

EUR/JPY intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 103.4
Our preference: Short positions below 103.4 with targets @ 102.5 & 102.2 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 103.4 look for further upside with 103.8 & 104.25 as targets.
Comment: the pair has broken below its support and remains on the downside, the RSI is badly directed.

Analysis: Poor German auction spells tough times for euro
LONDON (Reuters) - Weak demand at a German debt auction suggests investors are starting to shun even the euro zone's strongest economy, which could trigger more losses in the shared currency as many shift from euro-denominated assets to safe havens outside the region.
As Italian, Spanish and even French yield spreads have blown out to record levels in recent weeks, the trend has been for portfolio flows to switch into German Bunds, resulting in no foreign exchange outflows from the euro zone.
Those flows, combined with talk of repatriation of capital by euro zone banks desperate to shore up their balance sheets as money markets seize up, have been cited as reasons behind the euro's recent resilience around $1.34.
But that appears to be changing and on Thursday the euro slid to a 7-week low at $1.3316 on trading platform EBS.
Germany sold barely half the bonds it put up for auction on Wednesday, when a buyers' strike against the low yields on offer was fueled by fears that Berlin could not remain immune from the crisis engulfing its heavily indebted euro partners.
In a sign that investors are cutting exposure to the euro zone as a whole, 10-year Bund yields converged with UK gilts for the first time in 2-1/2 years.
Normally, positive yield differentials would be considered a reason to buy the euro. But analysts said investors are now more likely to sell the shared currency because of fears that Germany
may be forced to underwrite the fiscal excesses of weaker euro zone economies. Those worries could push the euro to $1.25 or lower by early next year, some analysts say.
"Some people are now saying if you cannot sell the Bund (at auction) you cannot sell anything. Traders will see German yields higher and the euro falling and say that is not a good sign. The euro zone crisis is just getting going," said Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura.
Analysts described the recent widening of differentials between benchmark Bund yields and returns on the bonds of weaker economies as asymmetric. Earlier in the crisis, when peripheral bond yields rose German yields tended to fall.
"When German Bund yields no longer drop while the other side is widening, we have liquidation of these peripheral bonds as well as simultaneously a flight out of the euro. This means the euro is much more vulnerable to widening of the spreads," said Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley.
At 2.15 percent, 10-year German yields are still roughly a third below levels seen earlier this year, and investors are unlikely to dump Bunds as they dumped Italian and Spanish debt.
But Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange, said if weak demand for German debt escalates into an outright Bund sell-off, a huge proportion of flows that have remained within the euro zone would desert the bloc.
"We may get to a point where Germany starts to get pressured, capital is going to be drying up and then the euro could drop quite low, to $1.25 or less in a matter of days," Gallo said.
INFLOWS SLOWING
In a scenario in which Germany comes under pressure, analysts said the portfolio flows could dry up fast.
The latest European Central Bank data showed 20.7 billion euros of net portfolio investment flowed into the euro zone in September, at a slower pace than August when 31.9 billion euros came in.
The data supports the view that appetite for euro zone debt is waning with repatriation of capital by European banks acting as a buffer for the time being. Analysts expect foreign investors to speed up liquidation of euro zone bond holdings while repatriation inflows are likely to wane in coming months.
Deutsche Bank estimates the stock of foreign portfolio investments in the euro area exceeds the stock of euro area investment abroad by close to 3 trillion euros - a mismatch that is likely to send the euro lower in coming months.
Data from Japanese bank Nomura shows domestic investors in France, the euro zone's second largest economy, has already repatriated investment from abroad for four consecutive months, to a total of 123 billion euros.
Although the data does not differentiate between repatriation from other euro zone countries and the rest of the world, it supports evidence that French banks, which have particularly high exposure to Greek debt, are trying to improve capital ratios to reduce vulnerability to a Greek default.
Nomura data also showed Japanese investors led the selling of euro zone assets mainly from Italy and Belgium in August and September, and that trend is expected to continue.
Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin said as the crisis threatened core euro zone countries, foreigners had a significantly smaller pool of assets to buy from. He forecast the single currency could hit $1.25 in the first quarter of 2012.
"It does feel like Europe has jumped the gun and there's a mismatch in terms of repatriation. Foreigners hold a lot more European assets than Europeans hold foreign assets. There's more to liquidate in a full-blooded, 'everyone goes home' situation."

Belangrijk forextijden van vandaag zijn:
Geen.

Market Morning Briefing:
EQUITIES
The US markets were closed yesterday on account of the Thanksgiving day holiday and the markets will be opened for a shortened trading session today.
The Asian markets are trading mixed. Shanghai (2398.19, up 0.03%), Nikkei (8173.31, up 0.10%) and Taiwan (6878.27, up 0.20%) are trading higher while Hong Kong (17733, down 1.13%) and Australia (4064.90, down 1.22%) are trading lower. The Sensex (15858.49, up 158.52 points)and Nifty (4756.45, up 50 points) had closed higher yesterday. The bigger picture is still bearish for the Indian equity markets and any upmove could be short lived.
COMMODITIES
No major change in the Commodity space as the US markets were closed yesterday on account of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Nymex Crude (96.36) is keeping up the chances of testing 94 on the downside and in a bigger picture a fall to 90 is also possible.
Gold (1695) is still struggling to see a strong rise past 1700 and is keeping alive the chances of testing 1625-00 on the downside.
Silver (31.81) remains weak for a test of 29 on the downside.
Copper (3.27) is bearish for a fall to 3.00-2.80
CURRENCIES
Dollar remains strong. Euro (1.3321) has come off from its high of 1.3411 and is now trading in its important 1.3320-00 Support region. Whether this Support region holds or breaks will determine the further direction of move. Dollar-Yen (77.34) is getting good Support near 77 and can rise to 78-79 once again in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (103.03) is bouncing back from its low of 102.70 and looks mixed now.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9214) remains bullish for a test of 0.9250-300 or even higher on the upside. Cable (1.5467) has dropped below its important Support at 1.5500 and has a big threat of falling further to 1.5250-00 while below 1.5500. Aussie (0.9696) has come off from just below 0.9800 and is keeping up the threat of seeing 0.9500 on the downside.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1156.90 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.3103. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower yesterday at 52.07/08 and can test 51.70 on the downside while below its 52.20-30 Resistance region.
INTEREST RATES
EU is getting into deeper trouble. Fitch has downgraded Portugal to junk and alerted for further downgrade and Moody in downgrading Hungary to junk. 10Y Portugal bond yield is hovering around 12.21% (+100bps).
German bund prices fell further pushing up the yields, 2Y increased to 0.43% (+3bps) and 10Y to 2.13% (+4bps).
US markets are closed yesterday and today bonds may move contrary to its German counterpart

Actuele stand 7:00uur
Japan eindigt in de min, Nikkei 225 op -0.06%. De #aex futures geven vlakke opening weer. Eur/Usd in downtrend op weg naar 1.32.

De agenda met de belangrijkste items van vandaag en verder:
VRIJDAG 25 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MAANDAG 28 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, consumentenvertrouwen Gfk, december, 13.00 uur
- Dui, inflatie, december, 14.00 uur
- VS, verkoop nieuwe woningen, oktober, 16.00 uur
DINSDAG 29 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Geen agendapunten
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, ABU-cijfers periode 11 2011, 10.00 uur
- Eurozone, consumentenvertrouwen, november, 11.00 uur
- VS, Case-Shiller huizenprijsindex, september 15.00 uur
- VS, consumentenvertrouwen Conference Board, november, 16.00 uur
WOENSDAG 30 NOVEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Kardan, cijfers KW3, voorbeurs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- NL, producentenprijzen, oktober, 9.30 uur
- NL, producentenvertrouwen, november, 9.30 uur
- Eurozone, inflatie, november, 11.00 uur
- Eurozone, werkloosheid, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse hypotheekaanvragen, week eindigend op 25 november, 13.00 uur
- VS, werkgelegenheid private sector, 14.15 uur
- VS, arbeidsproductiviteit, KW3, 14.30 uur
- VS, aanstaande huizenverkopen, oktober, 16.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse olievoorraden, week eindigend op 25 november, 16.30 uur
- VS, Dow Jones Economisch Sentiment-Index, november, 19.00 uur
- VS, Beige Book, 20.00 uur
DONDERDAG 1 DECEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Ordina, bava
- Randstad, analistendag
- Philips, analistenconferentie Parijs
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Dui, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, november, 9.55 uur
- Eurozone, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, november, 10.00 uur
- VS, wekelijkse steunaanvragen, week eindigend op 26 november, 14.30 uur
- VS, inkoopmanagersindex industrie, novemver, 16.00 uur
VRIJDAG 2 DECEMBER
BEDRIJFSNIEUWS
- Vivenda media groep, ava
- Randstad, analistendag
MACRO-ECONOMISCH NIEUWS
- Eurozone, producenten prijzen, oktober, 11.00 uur
- VS, banenrapport, november, 14.30 uur

Topic:
–Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/bond auction.
–Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote